Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins: 2020 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (2-8-1) at Miami Dolphins (7-4)

The Dolphins are 7-4, but they haven’t been as good as their record. They have faced an easy schedule, including three wins over the Jaguars and Jets (twice), and they have benefited significantly from things like a +6 turnover margin, a +3 return touchdown margin, and a 61.54% opponent’s field goal percentage (best in the NFL by a wide margin ahead of the 2nd ranked team at 75.00%), three things that tend to be totally unpredictable on a week-to-week basis. In terms of schedule adjusted first down rate differential, the Dolphins rank 20th at -0.54% and even that is outplaying their talent level, as they rank 24th in my roster rankings.

On top of that, the Dolphins are also in a terrible spot, facing an easy Bengals team before a much tougher game against the Chiefs. Favorites of 8 or more are 15-31 ATS since 1989 before being home underdogs, including 9-20 ATS before being home underdogs of 3 or more (the early line is Kansas City -7.5). Hosting the defending Super Bowl Champions next week, it’s hard to see the Dolphins getting up for the last place Bengals enough to cover this 10.5-point spread. My calculated line is Miami -7.5, even before considering the bad schedule spot, so we’re getting good value with the visitor.

That being said, it’s hard to be excited about a Bengals team that has struggled this season and now is starting a bottom of the roster caliber quarterback in Brandon Allen, with talented starting quarterback Joe Burrow out for the season with injury. Along with the Jets and Jaguars, the Bengals are one of the worst teams in the league and I don’t like to bet on teams this bad unless there are really good reasons, but there are this week. This is much more of a fade of an overrated Dolphins team in a bad spot than a bet on the Bengals, but they’re worth a small play this week.

Miami Dolphins 17 Cincinnati Bengals 10

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +10.5

Confidence: Medium

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2020 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (4-7) at Chicago Bears (5-6)

The Lions have had a tough season, as they are just 4-7 despite a relatively easy schedule and have just one win by more than a field goal, against a Jaguars team that is one of the worst in the league.  In terms of schedule adjusted first down rate differential, the Lions rank 29th in the NFL at -3.23%, only ahead of the Bengals, Jaguars, and Lions. However, there is reason to believe they can be better going forward, as offense tends to be much more consistent week-to-week than defense and the Lions’ issues have been almost primarily concentrated on the defensive side of the ball. 

While the Lions’ offense ranks a decent 13th in first down rate over expected at +0.63%, their defense ranks dead last in first down rate allowed over expected at +3.86%, which even looks bad compared to the 31st ranked team at +3.00% and the 30th ranked team at +2.76%. Despite that, the Lions’ chances of being somewhat passable defensively going forward are better than you’d think, just due to pure regression to the mean and if they can do that they will find winning games a lot easier, as they already have a solid offense. Firing defensive minded head coach Matt Patricia can’t hurt either, as his defenses consistently underperformed since his arrival in Detroit. 

The Bears, meanwhile, have been almost the opposite, with a strong defense that ranks 6th in first down rate allowed over expected at -2.66%, but a horrible offense that ranks 30th in first down rate at -3.66%. I like the Lions’ chances of being better going forward, so we’re getting good value with them as 3-point underdogs in Chicago, where the Bears won’t have any fans in the stands. This line suggests the Bears are about 2-2.5 points better than the Lions on a neutral field, which I think is off by at least a couple points. My calculated line is about even, so getting a full field goal with Detroit is a great value, with 1 in 4 games decided by 3 points or less.

The Lions have a tough game with the Packers on deck and teams are 58-97 ATS since 2014 before being home underdogs of 6 or more, which the Lions almost definitely will be next week, but they should be still focused this week against a divisional rival that already beat them earlier this year. Divisional road underdogs are 75-46 ATS since 2002 in a same season regular season rematch against a team that previously lost to as home favorites. The Lions are pretty depleted due to injury, but the Bears are as well and my roster rankings have these two teams about even, so the Lions are worth a bet. In fact, depending on the status of some questionable players for the Bears (top defensive lineman Akiem Hicks, left tackle Charles Leno, and #1 receiver Allen Robinson), I may increase this bet.

Detroit Lions 23 Chicago Bears 22 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2020 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (7-4) at Arizona Cardinals (6-5)

The Rams lead the NFL with a +4.63% schedule adjusted first down rate differential, while the Cardinals rank 9th at +2.02%, but there is reason to believe the Cardinals can be the better team going forward. While the Rams are a defensive led team, ranking 2nd in first down rate allowed over expected, but just 15th in first down rate over expected, the Cardinals are a dominant offensive team (4th) that has some issues on defense (17th). The good news for the Cardinals is that defensive play is much more inconsistent on a week-to-week than offensive play, so an offensive led team is more likely to sustain their success going forward. 

Despite that, this line favors the Rams by a field goal, swinging from an even line last week on the early line, a surprise because the Rams and Cardinals both lost close games last week. About 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or less, so that’s a significant swing without any legitimate reason for it. I love getting a full field goal with the team with the significantly better offense, which is especially the case with the Rams missing dominant left tackle Andrew Whitworth for the third straight week. He’s arguably their most important offensive player. My roster rankings suggest we’re getting significant value with the Cardinals as well, as the Rams have just a one point advantage in my roster rankings without Whitworth, meaning this game should be about a toss up in Arizona, where the Cardinals will have minimal homefield advantage.

On top of that, the Cardinals are in a much better spot. While the Rams have to turn around and play another game against the Patriots in four days on Thursday Night Football, the Cardinals get a trip to New York to face a Giants team that could easily be missing it’s starting quarterback, so the Cardinals should be fully focused. Favorites cover at just a 42.5% rate all-time before a short week, while home underdogs are 72-48 ATS since 2008 before being road favorites, which the Cardinals almost definitely will be against the Giants next week. I would like the Cardinals at +3 even in ordinary circumstances, but with those situational trends factored in, this is my Pick of the Week. I locked in +3 earlier this week, but there are still some available at some books. The money line is also worth a bet as well.

Arizona Cardinals 27 Los Angeles Rams 24 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings: 2020 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10) at Minnesota Vikings (5-6)

The Vikings started just 1-5, but there were a lot of reasons to believe they’d be significantly better going forward, as they were struggling primarily due to metrics that are highly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and they had faced a tough schedule. The Vikings have more or less been as I’ve expected since their tough start, winning four of the past five games to bring their record up to a respectable 5-6, but the metrics that showed the Vikings had a good chance for significant improvement going forward still show that.

The Vikings have a 89.66% field goal percentage against, a net -18.2% 4th down conversion rate, and a -6 turnover margin (4th worst in the NFL), which is primarily due to their league worst fumble recovery rate (33.33%) and Kirk Cousins’ interception rate (3.44%) being nearly double his interception rate in his previous 5 seasons (1.90%). They’ve also faced a tough schedule overall, even if it’s gotten easier in recent weeks, and, overall, they rank 8th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at +2.15%. That lines up with my roster rankings, which also has them 8th.

It’s not hard to see how struggling in those aforementioned metrics has led to the Vikings losing otherwise winnable games, as they were a failed 4th down conversation away from clinching the game in Seattle and lost by 1 to the Titans in a game in which the Titans made 6 of 6 field goals, including a trio from 50+ yards and a 55-yard game winner. The Vikings could easily be 7-4 against a tough schedule right now if they had held on to win those two games and that doesn’t even take into account that they won the first down rate battle in losses to the Packers, Falcons, and Cowboys. They’re far better than their record suggests.

This line is high at 10, but I think it should be even higher, as the Jaguars are arguably the worst team in the league. Most expected them to be one of, if not the worst teams in the league coming into the season, due to the complete teardown of this roster over the past couple years since the AFC Championship. They threw some people off the scent by randomly winning their first game of the season against the Colts, but have proven to be as bad as expected, losing ten straight games by 10.5 points per game. 

The Jaguars rank 31st in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at -4.90% and dead last in my roster rankings, as their already depleted roster is missing several key players, including quarterback Gardner Minshew, talented guard Andrew Norwell, top edge defender Josh Allen, and their top-3 cornerbacks CJ Henderson, Sidney Jones, and DJ Hayden. I have this line calculated at Minnesota -13, as they should win this game easily. This isn’t a great spot for the Vikings, as they have to go to Tampa Bay after this one and favorites of 10+ are 65-83 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs, but the Jaguars have another tough game on deck against the Titans and teams are 58-97 ATS since 2014 before being home underdogs of 6 or more. Even at this big number, the Vikings are worth a bet.

Minnesota Vikings 33 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -10

Confidence: Medium

2020 Week 12 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

TB +3.5 vs. KC

High Confidence Picks

TEN +3.5 @ IND

GB -7.5 vs. CHI

Medium Confidence Picks

WAS +3 @ DAL

NYG -5.5 @ CIN

SEA -5 @ PHI

DEN +16.5 vs. NO

ATL +3.5 vs. LV

PIT -9.5 vs. BAL

Low Confidence Picks

NE +1.5 vs. ARZ

JAX +7 vs. CLE

No Confidence Picks

NYJ +7 vs. MIA

LAR -5 vs. SF

LAC +4.5 @ BUF

CAR +3 @ MIN

DET +3 vs. HOU

Upset Picks

NE +110 vs. ARZ

WAS +130 @ DAL

TB +160 vs. KC

TEN +150 @ IND

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (4-7) at Minnesota Vikings (4-6)

The Vikings are just 4-6, but there is plenty of reason to believe they’ll be better going forward. Not only have they faced an above average schedule thus far, but a lot of the metrics they’ve struggled in are ones that are very unpredictable on a week-to-week basis, including a league worst 96.00% field goal percentage against, a net -21.2% 4th down conversion rate, and a -4 turnover margin, which is primarily due to their 31st ranked fumble recovery rate (37.50%) and Kirk Cousins’ interception rate (4.00%) being over double his interception rate in his previous 5 seasons (1.90%). 

It’s not hard to see how struggling in those aforementioned metrics has led to the Vikings losing otherwise winnable games, as they were a failed 4th down conversation away from clinching the game in Seattle and lost by 1 to the Titans in a game in which the Titans made 6 of 6 field goals, including a trio from 50+ yards and a 55-yard game winner. The Vikings could easily be 6-4 right now if they had held on to win those two games and that doesn’t even take into account that they won the first down rate battle in losses to the Packers, Falcons, and Cowboys. In terms of schedule adjusted first down rate differential, the Vikings rank 7th at +1.83%, which lines up with my roster rankings, in which they rank 11th. We’ve seen the Vikings go 3-1 since their 1-5 start, largely due to regression in those aforementioned metrics, and I would expect to see that continue going forward.

The Panthers are also better than their record though, ranking 18th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at +0.24%, as they’ve faced a tough schedule and have only lost by more than one score twice, both against the Buccaneers, who rank #1 in schedule adjusted first down rate differential. My calculated line is Minnesota -4, so we’re not getting any real line value with the Vikings at -3.5. There also aren’t any relevant situational trends in this matchup, so which side I take for pick ‘em purposes is going to be solely dependent on the eventual status of some players who are questionable to suit up. 

For the Panthers, it’s starting left tackle Russell Okung and starting right guard John Miller, who could return from absences of 6 games and 2 games respectively to bolster this offensive line, while the Vikings have their top wide receiver Adam Thielen uncertain, after a week of inconclusive and conflicting COVID test results. I’m taking Minnesota for now, but I’ll almost definitely have an update before gametime. If Thielen can manage to get cleared and the Panthers don’t get their offensive linemen back, I’ll be more confident in Minnesota, but if the opposite of that happens, I’ll probably flip to Carolina.

Update: It’s all bad news on the injury report for the Vikings, with Thielen out and both Okung and Miller back for the Panthers, giving them a fully healthy offensive line for the first time in weeks. This line has shifted to Minnesota -3, which is right where I have this calculated, but I think I’m going to side with the Panthers slightly. A push is probably the most likely outcome.

Minnesota Vikings 30 Carolina Panthers 27

Pick against the spread: Carolina +3

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (3-7) at Buffalo Bills (7-3)

The Chargers have once again been one of the most injury prone teams in the league. It started when they lost stud safety Derwin James, arguably their top defensive player, for the season with injury before the season even began and over the first half of the season the Chargers lost several other key players. Last week against the Jets was arguably the healthiest they’ve been since the beginning of the season, with key players like stud defensive ends Joey Bosa (2 games missed) and Melvin Ingram (3 games), starting defensive tackle Justin Jones (3 games), starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga (4 games), #2 wide receiver Mike Williams (1 game), and starting right guard Trai Turner (7 games) all active after missing time earlier this year.

However, that really only lasted a week, as the Chargers have since lost top cornerback Casey Hayward and talented defensive ends Melvin Ingram and Uchenna Nwosu (their top-two edge defenders after Bosa) to injuries. The Chargers could be getting some reinforcements from injured reserve, with starting running back Austin Ekeler and starting cornerback Chris Harris potentially being activated after being designated to return, but, even with those two, the Chargers would still be far from full strength. 

Despite injuries, the Chargers have played reasonably well this season, regardless of what their 3-7 record suggests, as they’ve been within one score in all seven losses, including early leads over top level teams like the Chiefs, Saints, and Buccaneers. However, with Ekeler and Harris’ uncertainty factored in, the Chargers still rank just 23rd in my roster rankings. The general public is also pretty aware that the Chargers have been competitive against good teams in their losses and, as a result, the Chargers are just 4.5 point favorites in Buffalo against a 7-3 Bills team, so we’re not getting any line value with them.

In fact, Buffalo -4.5 is my exact calculated line and, without any situational trends that apply to this game, my decision on which side to take for pick ‘em purposes is going to be entirely dependent on the status of Ekeler and Harris. For now, I’m taking the Chargers, but that would change if Ekeler and Harris were ruled out. Either way, I expect this to be a no confidence pick barring a significant change to the spread or some other unexpected circumstance.

Update: Ekeler and Harris are both in, but I’m leaving this as a no confidence pick.

Buffalo Bills 24 Los Angeles Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers +4.5

Confidence: None

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (4-6) at Los Angeles Rams (7-3)

This is a tough call. This could be a look ahead spot for the Rams, facing a banged up 49ers team, ahead of a much bigger divisional matchup in Arizona next week. Teams are just 54-71 ATS at home against a sub-.500 divisional opponent before facing an above-.500 divisional opponent on the road, including 40-60 ATS when the first divisional opponent has a 40% winning percentage or less, like the 49ers at 4-6. On the other hand, the Rams have already lost to the 49ers once this season, so they could be fully focused to get revenge, even in a potential look ahead spot. 

This line is also about right, as my calculated line has the Rams favored by a touchdown. We’re getting some minor line value with the Rams at -6.5, but certainly not enough to take them with any confidence, especially in what could be a bad spot for them. The 49ers have also been a tough team to pin down how good they are this season as their injury/COVID situation has been about as bad as any team in the league this season and they seemingly play with a noticeably different roster every game. This week, the 49ers get Deebo Samuel back, after injuries and COVID caused him to miss 6 games total across two stints, and they’ll also get top running back Raheem Mostert and top cornerback Richard Sherman back after they’ve missed 6 games and 9 games respectively, 

However, they remain without top edge rushers Nick Bosa (9th game missed) and Dee Ford (10th game), slot cornerback K’Waun Williams (5th game), starting safety Jaquiski Tartt (4th game), stud tight end George Kittle (5th game), starting quarterback Jimmy Garroppolo (5th game), and their top-2 centers Weston Richburg (11th game) and Ben Garland (6th game) and this week those missing players will be joined by talented starting wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (3rd game), stud left tackle Trent Williams (2nd game), and starting defensive tackle DJ Jones (1st game). There’s too much uncertainty to take either side with confidence with this line being where it is, but the Rams are my pick for pick ‘em purposes, as the single most likely outcome of this game is the Rams winning by a touchdown. 

Update: Trent Williams will apparently play and this line has dropped accordingly at 5. I still am on the Rams for a no confidence pick.

Los Angeles Rams 26 San Francisco 49ers 20

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -5

Confidence: None

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (7-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1)

The Seahawks have not played as well as their record would suggest this season, going 5-2 in one score games, with a +31 point differential and a 17th ranked +0.26% first down rate differential, but I expect them to play better than that going forward. There are a few reasons for that, including simply that they’re typically much better in the second half of the season than the first half in the Russell Wilson era, going 43-21-2 ATS in games 9-16 since Wilson’s first season in 2012, as opposed to just 34-34-4 ATS in games 1-8.

On top of that, the Seahawks are an offensive led team and offensive led teams tend to fare better going forward because offensive performance is much more consistent and predictive week-to-week than defensive performance. The Seahawks rank 6th in first down rate over expected at +2.30%, but are dragged down by a defense that ranks just 25th in first down rate allowed over expected at +2.05%. If they can get even middling play from their defense going forward, they should keep winning games, including some by larger margins than most of their wins thus far this season.

Aside from the inherent randomness of defensive play, the Seahawks are also getting more talented on defense, in large part due to players returning from injury. A few weeks ago, the Seahawks got talented safety Jamal Adams back from a 4-game absence and, this week, they’ll be top cornerback Shaq Griffin back, also from a 4-game absence. On top of that, they have upgraded their defensive line in recent weeks with mid-season veteran additions Carlos Dunlap and Damon Harrison. Their offense also gets a boost with feature back Chris Carson returning from his own 4-game absence. With all of these players in the lineup, I have the Seahawks ranked 4th in my roster rankings and they definitely could perform at that level going forward if they can stay relatively healthy.

I was always planning on betting the Seahawks confidently once they got reasonably healthy, but they’re also in a good spot in this game for a couple reasons. For one, they’re a west coast team in a night game against an east coast team. Due to circadian rhythms, west coast teams cover at about a 60% rate against east coast teams at night, as east coast teams tend to get tired towards the end of the game and see their performance fall off in the second half. On top of that, while the Eagles have another tough game on deck in Green Bay, the Seahawks get another relatively easy game at home against the Giants. I wish this line was still at Seattle -3, where it was on the early line last week, but it’s understandable the line would move for the Seahawks being healthier (not to mention the Eagles losing top offensive lineman Lane Johnson for the season) and my calculated line is Seattle -6, so the Seahawks are still worth a bet at -5.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Philadelphia Eagles 23

Pick against the spread: Seattle -5

Confidence: Medium