Houston Texans sign S Stevie Brown

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Texans, Uncategorized

Stevie Brown, a 2010 7th round pick, played just 151 snaps combined in 2010 and 2011, but had a breakout year in 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 27th ranked safety. Unfortunately for him, he tore his ACL and missed his entire contract year in 2013 and was forced to settle for a one year deal back with the Giants to rehab his value. His 2014 season was a mixed bag. He graded out about average and played all 16 games, but he made just 8 starts and played just 559 snaps as he was benched for a stretch in the middle of the season.

As a result, he was forced to settle for this deal that’s near the NFL minimum (825K) for one-year and the Texans are getting a good deal on a guy that should at least be a replacement level starter. He’ll be an upgrade over DJ Swearinger, a 2013 2nd round pick who graded out 78th out of 87 eligible safeties last season. Swearinger wasn’t drafted by the current coaching staff, who isn’t thrilled with him and his unwillingness to play special teams, so they’re expected to trade or cut him, despite his youth. It wasn’t a good safety class in free agency, but the Texans got two of the top safeties on the market (Rahim Moore) without spending much money at all.

Grade: A

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Denver Broncos sign TE James Casey

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Broncos, Uncategorized

Casey was signed by the Eagles following the 2012 season to a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal. He was expected to be a jack of all traits matchup nightmare in Chip Kelly’s offense, but struggled to make it onto the field, playing a combined 330 snaps in 2 seasons in Philadelphia behind both Brent Celek and Zach Ertz, before being an easy cap casualty this off-season. He’s going into his age 31 season in 2015, but he’s had success with Denver Head Coach Kubiak before and they’re only paying him 1.25 million over 1 year, a fraction of what he was making in Philadelphia.

He’ll likely reprise his old role from Houston, where he played 609 snaps in 2012 under Kubiak, despite the fact that the Texans had Owen Daniels and Garrett Graham. Kubiak frequently uses two tight ends and a fullback. He’ll do that less this season in Denver because of Peyton Manning, but Casey will see a lot of playing time at fullback. He’s was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked fullback in 2011 and 10th ranked fullback in 2012. This is a solid cheap pickup by the Broncos, getting a decent player who has scheme familiarity and fill a need.

Grade: B+

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Houston Texans extend OLB Whitney Mercilus

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Texans, Uncategorized

This is the classic case of a team overpaying for a marginal talent. Mercilus has largely been disappointing since the Texans drafted him 26th overall in 2012. Mercilus has graded out below average in all 3 seasons he’s been in the NFL, including 28th out of 34 eligible in 2012 and 42nd out of 42 eligible in 2013. He’s coming off of the best season of his career in 2014, but he still only graded out 35th out of 46 eligible, particularly struggling as a pass rusher.

Mercilus was going into his contract year in 2015, but he wouldn’t have been hard to replace. The Texans certainly didn’t need to pay him 26 million over 4 years, including 10.8 million guaranteed. Even if the Texans thought internally that Mercilus was due for a breakout year, they should have just picked up his option for 2016. That option is guaranteed for injury only, so the Texans would have, barring a serious injury, had the option to go back on that option next off-season, which would have given them much more flexibility than this. This deal is a premature overpay at best.

Grade: C

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2015 NFL Mock Draft

stevenlourie Uncategorized

Updated 4/30/15

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – QB Jameis Winston (Florida State)

2. Tennessee Titans – QB Marcus Mariota (Oregon)

3. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Dante Fowler (Florida)

4. Oakland Raiders – DT Leonard Williams (USC)

5. Atlanta Falcons (TRADE) – DE Vic Beasley (Clemson)

6. New York Jets – WR Amari Cooper (Alabama)

7. Chicago Bears – WR Kevin White (West Virginia)

8. Washington Redskins – OT Brandon Scherff (Iowa)

9. New York Giants – OT Andrus Peat (Stanford)

10. St. Louis Rams – OT Ereck Flowers (Miami)

11. Minnesota Vikings – WR Devante Parker (Louisville)

12. Cleveland Browns – DT Danny Shelton (Washington)

13. New Orleans Saints – OLB Alvin Dupree (Kentucky)

14. Miami Dolphins – RB Todd Gurley (Georgia)

15. San Francisco 49ers – DE Arik Armstead (Oregon)

16. Houston Texans – CB Trae Waynes (Michigan State)

17. San Diego Chargers – RB Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin)

18. Kansas City Chiefs – CB Kevin Johnson (Wake Forest)

19. Cleveland Browns – WR Breshad Perriman (Central Florida)

20. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Nelson Agholor (USC)

21. Cincinnati Bengals – OT Eric Fisher (Oregon)

22. Pittsburgh Steelers – S Landon Collins (Alabama)

23. Detroit Lions – DT Malcom Brown (Texas)

24. Arizona Cardinals – DT Jordan Phillips (Oklahoma)

25. Carolina Panthers – OT DJ Humphries (Florida)

26. Baltimore Ravens – CB Byron Jones (Connecticut)

27. Dallas Cowboys – OLB Benadrick McKinney (Mississippi State)

28. Denver Broncos – C Cameron Erving (Florida State)

29. Indianapolis Colts – S Damarious Randall (Arizona State)

30. Green Bay Packers – CB Eric Rowe (Utah)

31. New Orleans Saints – WR Phillip Dorsett (Miami)

32. New England Patriots – DT Eddie Goldman (Florida State)

Results:

Match player to team: 10

Match player to slot: 6

Match team to position: 16

Match player to round: 26

Miami Dolphins sign WR Greg Jennings

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, Uncategorized

The Vikings signed Jennings to a 5-year, 45 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, expecting to get the guy who had 3 seasons of 1000 yards or more in Green Bay. However, Jennings wasn’t able to come close to those numbers without Aaron Rodgers, averaging 64 catches for 773 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2 seasons in Minnesota. He’s now going into his age 32 season and hasn’t had a 1000+ yard season since 2010. He also hasn’t graded out in the top-40 among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus since 2011. He’s an aging, declining, marginal player.

The Vikings cut Jennings to save 9 million in cash and 5 million in cap space this off-season. The Dolphins are getting him much cheaper, 8 million over 2 years, with nothing guaranteed beyond the first year. It’s an appropriate value for him, but usually teams get better than appropriate values for players this late in the off-season. It’s not a bad deal, but considering the younger Michael Crabtree got just 3 million over 1 year, I was a little surprised to see Jennings got this much at this stage of the off-season. He’ll fill in a need in Miami as the 3rd receiver behind Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry, but this signing won’t preclude the Dolphins from using an early pick on a receiver in the draft.

Grade: B

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Baltimore Ravens extend CB Jimmy Smith

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Ravens, Uncategorized

This was originally reported to be a 4-year, 48 million dollar deal, but that’s not entirely accurate. Smith’s contract is worth 48 million, but that’s including the 6.9 million dollar player option he has for 2015. This contract is actually “only” worth 41.1 million in new money over 4 years. That’s an average of 10.275 million annually in new money, good for 6th highest in the NFL among cornerbacks. Smith is guaranteed 21 million over the first 2 years of the deal, including a 13 million dollar signing bonus, and has non-guaranteed salaries of 8.5 million, 9 million, and 9.5 million in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

Simply put, it’s a lot of money. As I mentioned, it’s the 6th most expensive contract in terms of average annual salary among cornerbacks in the NFL. Smith has played like that at times. A 1st round pick in 2011, Smith moved into the starting lineup in 2012, after impressing on 256 snaps as a rookie, and has improved in every season as a starter, grading out 112th (2nd worst in the NFL) in 2012, 35th in 2013, and 20th in 2014. He was even better than that suggests in 2012 as he did that on 476 snaps, missing 8 games with a foot injury. Through the first 7 games of the season, before his injury, he was Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked cornerback, including 4th in pure coverage grade, allowing 51.3% completion and 4.18 yards per attempt on 39 attempts.

The Ravens are obviously banking that Smith continues developing into one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL, going into his age 27 season. That certainly could happen, but this deal seems to have way more downside than upside. Best case scenario, Smith becomes one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL and the Ravens are paying him appropriately. But there’s also a strong chance that Smith never really consistently shows top level ability or gets hurt again (he’s missed 17 games in 4 seasons in the NFL). It’s not a terrible deal, but it is an overpay by a team that already has a bunch of large contracts on their books going forward.

Grade: C+

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Jacksonville Jaguars sign C Stefen Wisniewski

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Stefen Wisniewski, a 2011 2nd round pick, has made 61 starts over the past 4 years for the Raiders. After struggling out of position at guard as a rookie, Wisniewski graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th, 11th, and 22nd ranked center in 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively, which means that he’s been an average starter. Only going into his age 26 season, the only reason Wisniewski was available so late into free agency was because he had off-season shoulder surgery. However, I always thought that whichever team ended up signing him was going to get a great value on a starter.

Credit the Jaguars for being that team, signing him to a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal. He’s fills a significant need inside at center as the Jaguars were forced to start 6th round rookie Luke Bowanko at center last season. He predictably struggled, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 29th ranked center out of 41 eligible. Bowanko might still have long-term upside as a starter, but Wisniewski is an immediate upgrade.

Grade: A

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New England Patriots re-sign WR Danny Amendola

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Patriots, Uncategorized

This move was made last month, but I didn’t originally grade it because I thought it was just a pure pay cut. I don’t grade pure pay cuts because there’s no downside for a team involved so it’s a pretty boring grade. However, it does appear that Amendola was given some guarantees as part of this restructure, whereas originally he didn’t have any money guaranteed in any of the final 3 years of his contract, so there is some evaluating to be done.

This deal is worth a maximum of 14.25 million over 3 years, but it can essentially be seen as a 1-year, 2.25 million dollar prove it deal as there isn’t anything guaranteed beyond the first year. In fact, all that’s guaranteed is a 500K signing bonus, though it seems like a fairly safe bet that Amendola will be in New England in 2015 as the #3 receiver behind Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell and collecting around 2.25 million (some of that money is in the form of per game roster bonuses so it’s possible it could be slightly less). However, if he continues to struggle, the Patriots can get out of the remaining 2 years and 12 million of the contract after the season without owing him anything more.

Amendola was signed by the Patriots to a 5-year, 28.5 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago to be the long-term replacement for Wes Welker. That didn’t happen, though fortunately for the Patriots, Julian Edelman became what they were expecting Amendola to become. Amendola missed 4 games with injury in 2013 and, though he played all 16 games in 2014, he struggled mightily overall. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 93rd ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible on 466 snaps.

He did play well down the stretch though, catching 27 passes for 242 yards and 3 touchdowns in the final 7 games of the season, including the playoffs. That gave the Patriots hope that Amendola could bounce back in 2015 and become the player who averaged 2.04 yards per route run in 2012 with the Rams, which is why they gave him this new deal. It’s a long shot for a guy who is already going into his age 30 season and who has an extensive injury history, but this isn’t a terrible deal. This restructure saves them more on the cap than an outright cut would have, as a cut would have saved them 2.1 million, while this saves them 2.5 million, at least for 2015. If they cut him next off-season, 2.73 million of dead money will be added to their cap for 2016, but the Patriots are still in win now mode with a soon to be 38-year-old quarterback so it makes sense in that sense.

Grade: B

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New York Jets sign RB Stevan Ridley

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jets, Uncategorized

This is definitely a solid value for Ridley, as he’ll only make 1.25 million in 2015, with just 80K guaranteed. Ridley, a 2011 3rd round pick, rushed for 1263 yards and 12 touchdowns on 290 carries (4.36 YPC) in his 2nd year in the league in 2012. He comes cheap for a reason though, as, in the two seasons since, he’s rushed for 1113 yards and 9 touchdowns on 272 carries (4.09 YPC). He’s also coming off of a torn ACL he suffered midway through last season. On top of that, he’s useless as a pass catcher, with 23 catches in 52 career games and has 9 career fumbles on 672 career touches. Still, he’s a solid buy low candidate at this price.

However, he’s a weird fit in New York for two reasons. For one, he’s a very similar player to Chris Ivory, a powerful between the tackles runner and little else, with little agility or pass catching ability. He won’t be a passing down upgrade on the limited Bilal Powell nor will he be a good change of pace back to Ivory. Two, the Jets’ offensive coordinator is Chan Gailey, who prefers quicker, smaller running backs who can do things in space, like he had in Buffalo with CJ Spiller. The Jets don’t have anyone who fits that mold as Ridley and Ivory are purely downhill runners and Powell is a mediocre talent.

This signing doesn’t preclude the Jets from drafting a speedy running back on day 2 of the draft. I currently have them taking Duke Johnson from Miami. It’s possible that Ridley and Ivory are fighting for one roster spot. I expect Ivory, who was Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked running back in pure running grade in 2014, to win that battle (at least I hope he would) so it’s very possible that Ridley gets cut before the season starts. In that sense, it could prove to be a wasted signing, but, with just 80K guaranteed, he’s worth the flier, as he long as he doesn’t cause the Jets to cut the talented Ivory.

Grade: B+

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Miami Dolphins re-sign QB Matt Moore

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Moore only attempted 29 passes over the past 3 seasons combined in Miami as Ryan Tannehill has made 48 straight starts to begin his career, but he wasn’t horrible in his last extended playing time in 2011, completing 60.5% of his passes for an average of 7.20 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He graded out 13th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus that season. The fact that he hasn’t played much in the last 3 seasons hurts him, but he’s only going into his age 31 season and I’m kind of surprised he didn’t draw interest on the open market as a stopgap starter. He’s better than Josh McCown, who got 6.25 million guaranteed from the Browns.

The Browns’ loss is the Dolphins’ gain as they were able to keep Moore as a backup for only 2.6 million over 1 year. He made 8 million over the past 2 years to be the backup quarterback so this is significantly cheaper. The Dolphins obviously are hoping that Moore won’t have to make a start for them this season as Ryan Tannehill as developed into a franchise quarterback, but, if Tannehill does get hurt, they’ll be in capable hands with Moore as their backup.

Grade: A

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