QB Ryan Tannehill (Miami)
8/18/13: Tannehill gets a small stock down with Dustin Keller out for the season.
Ryan Tannehill gets two new weapons to work with in Mike Wallace and Dustin Keller. Wallace may be overrated, but he’ll give them an upgrade on the outside, as Keller will at tight end. They have serious issues at left tackle, which could cancel some of that out, but I do expect Tannehill to improve on last year’s numbers, even if only because he has another year of experience and because the Dolphins will be passing more often. He’s just a QB2, but few QB2s have more upside.
Projection: 3600 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 200 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (220 pts standard, 258 pts 6 pt TD leagues)
RB Lamar Miller (Miami)
Daniel Thomas has shown very little in his two years as a pro, rushing for 906 yards on 256 carries (just 3.5 YPC) and the coaching staff that drafted him is gone. Miller is the clear starter at this point in the off-season and that does not figure to change. He’s a solid bet for 1000 yards as the new feature back in Miami and should have right around the 227 carries Reggie Bush had last season.
Projection: 230 carries for 1010 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 25 catches for 180 receiving yards (161 pts standard, 186 pts PPR)
WR Mike Wallace (Miami)
Wallace held out long into Training Camp last off-season, putting himself above the team and was not the same all season. Wallace was ProFootballFocus’ 91st ranked wide receiver out of 105 eligible. He caught just 55.2% of the passes thrown his way and averaged just 13.1 yards per catch, catching 64 passes for 838 yards and 8 touchdowns. Wallace has demonstrated for the past year or so that he’d rather get paid above anything, holding out at his team’s expense and then chasing the money and going to Miami so it was probably smart of the Steelers not to lock him up long term (not like they had the cap space, but still). He could easily coast now that he’s been paid and he has a downgrade at quarterback from Ben Roethlisberger. On top of that, the track record of receivers switching teams is dubious at best. Stay away and let him be someone else’s problem.
Projection: 60 catches for 850 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (121 pts standard, 181 pts PPR)
WR Brian Hartline (Miami)
8/18/13: Hartline could see a few more underneath targets with Keller out for the year. He’s also shown much better chemistry with Tannehill than Mike Wallace. He’s more comfortable in the system and with a poor offensive line, Tannehill is going to have to settle for shorter throws more than he’d like.
Hartline caught 74 passes for 1083 yards in the 2009 4th round pick’s breakout 4th season, but he did benefit from being targeted on 118 throws, 23.4% of the Dolphins’ pass attempts. He also scored just once, compared to 3 interceptions when thrown to, and averaged just 3.2 yards after catch per catch and graded out 26th on ProFootballFocus in pass catching grade among wide receivers. He also had close to a quarter of his production in one 253 yard game week 4 and caught 2 or fewer passes on 5 separate occasions. He’s a solid secondary receiver, but nothing more. He could still lead the team in receiving, with Wallace serving more as a downfield decoy. He does have greater familiarity with the quarterback and the playbook.
Projection: 68 catches for 900 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (120 pts standard, 188 pts PPR)