Detroit Lions 2013 NFL Season Preview

August 14, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Lions, Uncategorized

Introduction

The 2012 Detroit Lions have one of the weirdest statistical profiles I’ve ever seen. They gained 6540 yards (3^rd in the NFL) and allowed 5458 yards (13^th in the NFL), a +1082 differential, 2^nd in the NFL behind only Denver, but they won just 4 games. And it wasn’t that they were just gaining all these yards against prevent defenses in garbage time. Only 4 of their losses came by more than a touchdown and only 2 came by more than ten points. They were competitive in almost every game.

Their poor record in games decided by a touchdown or less (3-8) should even out this season as that type of thing usually does, but that alone doesn’t explain why they had such a poor record despite outgaining their opponents by so much. It’s very important to figure out why to see if the Lions can bounce back like teams normally do after a big regression in win total (the Lions won 6 games fewer last season than the season before and usually that type of thing is followed up by a win improvement of an average of 3 wins) or possibly even get all the way back to where they were in 2011 (10 wins) or maybe even beyond, to the big time breakout season that at one point looked inevitable for this once promising young team.

As I mentioned, their poor record in close games does not tell the whole story. Sure, their -65 points differential isn’t usually what you see from a 4 win team and they definitely failed to meet their Pythagorean Expectation of 6.5 wins, but even a 6 or 7 win team outgaining opponents by over 1000 yards on the season would be really strange. They ranked 17^th in the NFL in points per game (23.3) and 27^th in the NFL in points per game allowed (27.3), despite ranking 3^rd and 13^th in yards and yards allowed. That’s weird.

Well, it wasn’t penalties or poor play in the red zone. The Lions committed 10 penalties more than their opponents on the season, which isn’t what you want, but it’s hardly the reason for the discrepancy. Meanwhile, they actually played better red zone offense (converting 60.0% of red zone attempts for a touchdown) than their opponents (who converted 51.28% of their red zone attempts for a touchdown). They weren’t outplayed in the kicking game, as they nailed 32 of 36 field goals, as opposed to31 of 41 for their opponents.

However, special teams were a big part of the issue. Their opponents punted an average of 5 yards per punt net more than they did and they also allowed 4 special teams touchdowns, while not returning a single one of their own. They were also outgained by 3.3 yards per kickoff return and 1.3 yards per punt return. In terms of special teams DVOA, they were 30^th in the NFL last season. However, this is something that tends to be very inconsistent on a year to year basis as special teams personnel tends to be very inconsistent on a year to year basis.

They’ve already switched out the punter and both returners, as 5^th round rookie Sam Martin should help turn around a league worst punting game, while talented returner Michael Spurlock replaces Stefen Logan as both kick and punt returner. The rest of their special teams personnel should look largely different as well. I’m not worried about their special teams being as bad as they were last season.

Along with the 4 special teams touchdowns they allowed, they allowed 6 return touchdowns off of interceptions or fumbles. That means, of the 437 points they allowed last season, 70 weren’t even allowed by the defense. Take those 70 points out of the mix and they would have allowed 22.9 points per game last season 19^th in the NFL, which is a lot closer to where their yardage defense ranked (13^th) than 27^th was. Will they cut down on this in 2013? Well, improved special teams play will help and I think they’re unlikely to allow 6 return touchdowns on 33 turnovers again, a ridiculous 18.2% rate. Ordinarily, teams who turn the ball over 33 times allow an average of 2 return touchdowns off of them over the course of the season.

Of course, the Lions could also turn the ball over fewer times, which is something else I think will happen in 2013. The Lions were killed on turnovers in 2012, a big part of the reason why they were winning the yardage battle but not the game. They had 33 turnovers and 17 takeaways, a poor -16 margin. Bad fumble luck had a lot to do with that, as they recovered just 32.56% of fumbles that hit the ground during their games, 2nd worst in the NFL, which led to a -10 fumble margin, a big part of their -16 turnover margin. This type of thing is largely random, however. There is not really such thing as being “good” at recovering fumbles once they hit the ground. For example, there have been 6 teams who have recovered 35% or fewer of their fumbles since 2003. The following season, they recovered on average 53.7% of their fumbles.

Turnover margins are very consistent in general as well. For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

The Lions should have a much improved fumble margin in 2013, but their interception margin should be improved as well according to the aforementioned trends. Matt Stafford probably won’t throw interceptions less frequently. His 2.3% interception rate from 2012 was right around where it was in his first full season as a starter in 2011, when he threw an interception on 2.4% of his throws. However, they could easily intercept more than the 11 passes they intercepted in 2012. I expect that turnover margin to be much closer to +0 in 2013 and that’s going improve their team’s performance noticeably.

Of course, it would be unrealistic to expect the Lions to not allow any return touchdowns this season and it would also be unrealistic to expect all of those interception returns to turn automatically into punts. It’s definitely possible to allow points off of turnovers without giving up the return. The Lions ran 10.1 plays per game more than their opponents in 2012 and controlled the ball for 52.31% of the game, 6^th most in the NFL. Their defense often not getting a chance to even take the field has a lot to do with that and conversely that has a lot to do with why the Lions outgained their opponents by so much.

However, they still outgained opponents on a per play basis (5.6 to 5.5) and they do a good job of maintaining drives with 382 first downs to 76 punts, a 5.0 first down to punt ratio, among the best in the NFL, so they should continue controlling the ball for the larger part of the game and running more plays than their opponents. On top of that, they should be expected to score some points of their own off of returns, something they didn’t do at all in 2012. They were -65 in points differential and -70 in points off return differential. That means their defense actually allowed fewer points per game than their offense allowed. If they can just manage to do that again,. they should be at least a .500 team, but they could be even better.

This team has plenty of talent and should see better injury luck after ranking 24^th in the NFL in adjusted games lost last season. The NFC is a very, very tough conference and they play in arguably the toughest division in football so making the playoffs won’t be easy, but they should largely resemble the team they were in 2011. In terms of DVOA, which is more consistent on a year to year basis than win total, the Lions ranked 16^th in 2012 (14^th in non-special teams DVOA) and 11^th in 2011 (8^th in non-special teams DVOA). The Lions should be right around that caliber of a team again in 2013 and compete for a playoff spot.

Quarterback

One of the other weird statistical things about the Lions in 2012 was that Matt Stafford set an NFL record with 727 passing attempts, but managed just 20 touchdowns. Well, somehow a running game that ran just 391 times on the season managed to steal 17 touchdowns away from Stafford, while backup Shaun Hill stole another 2 on 13 attempts. The Lions should remain very pass heavy this year so Stafford should throw a higher percentage of the team’s touchdowns.

There should also be more touchdowns to go around on an offense that figures to turn the ball over fewer times. He probably won’t throw the ball 727 times again, for the same reason why the Lions probably won’t run 72.5 plays per game again, but he could throw 30-35 touchdowns, average around the 6.9 yards per attempt he’s averaged for his career on about 650-660 throws, and keep his interception rate right around the 2.3%-2.4% it’s been at in both of his full seasons as a starter, which puts him around 16 interceptions. He’s one of the better young quarterbacks in the NFL and the offense should once again function as such in 2013.

Grade: B+

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Another one of the other weird statistical things about the Lions in 2012 was Calvin Johnson setting the single season receiving record (surpassing Jerry Rice in week 16 no less), but scoring just 5 times. That total should increase for some of the same reasons that Stafford’s should. He probably won’t have a record setting season again, but he’s by far the best receiver on a team that passes a ridiculous amount, has a good young quarterback, and doesn’t have a lot of other passing options. He’s consistently able to beat double and triple teams and the 96 catches for 1681 yards he had in 2011 now seem like a statistical floor for him. He should have around 1700 receiving yards again and almost definitely break double digit touchdowns again.

As I mentioned, the Lions don’t have a ton of receivers after Megatron, but Stafford should have more to work with than the end of last season, when he was limited to the likes of Kris Durham, Brian Robiskie, and Will Heller after Johnson. Nate Burleson, Ryan Broyles, and Brandon Pettigrew all return from various injuries, while running back Reggie Bush, coming over from Miami, gives Stafford a deadly weapon out of the backfield.

Broyles will probably start opposite Johnson. Broyles was an incredibly productive collegiate receiver at the University of Oklahoma, catching 349 passes for 4586 yards and 45 touchdowns, but a torn ACL suffered late in his final collegiate season, along with a lack of elite size or speed, dropped him to the Lions in the 2^nd round of the 2012 NFL Draft. However, he plays better than his measurables on tape and is a remarkably hard worker and quick healer.

He made his debut week 3 last season and eventually became a starter down the stretch, catching 22 passes for 310 yards and 2 touchdowns on 30 targets on 190 routes run, before tearing the other ACL. Once again, Broyles did a fantastic job recovering from that injury and has been practicing in Training Camp and is on pace to play week 1. Obviously, he’s an injury risk and he might not be 100%, but there’s some intriguing breakout potential for him as a secondary receiver opposite Johnson.

Broyles will move to the slot, his natural position, on passing downs, with Nate Burleson coming in during 3-wide receiver sets. Burleson is also coming off a season ending injury, a broken leg. He’s a marginal receiver coming off of a serious injury and going into his age 32 season so he’s not great, even as far as #3 receivers go, but he’ll be better than what the Lions were trotting out down the stretch last season.

Pettigrew, meanwhile, returns from an ankle injury that limited him to 31 snaps in the final 4 games of the season. He struggled mightily last season, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd worst ranked pass catching tight end last season, catching 59 passes for 567 yards and 3 touchdowns on 95 targets, with 9 drops. He averaged just 1.18 yards per route run on 479 routes run, 28^th out of 37 eligible tight ends. The 2009 1^st round pick is a good run blocker, but has largely been a disappointment since the Lions drafted him.

He’s had better years and it’s possible the ankle injury he played through most of the season was part of why he struggled so much, but he’s never been much better, so I don’t see a big improvement. Tony Scheffler is the #2 tight end and a pass catching move tight end who often likes up on the slot, but he wasn’t great last season either. Still, while their receiving corps isn’t great, it should be better than it was last season.

As I mentioned, Reggie Bush’s presence is also a big part of that. Bush is a perfect fit for their offense because of his pass catching abilities. The Lions plan to utilize him the way the Saints utilized him, when he averaged 4.9 catches per game. That’s 78 catches over a 16 game season. That sounds like a lot, but he’s capable of doing so in this offense. The Lions have said they want to get him 80 catches. The inferior Joique Bell caught 52 passes in a part time role last season and Jahvid Best averaged 62 catches per 16 games during his short time as the Lions’ pass catching back before he got hurt. The only thing stopping Bush from getting 80 catches could be injuries. He missed 20 games in 5 seasons with the Saints and, though he only missed 1 in 2 years with the Dolphins, he’s now going into his age 28 season and his 8^th year in the league. Still, he’ll be an asset.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Bush will probably also be their leading rusher, but he won’t get a ton of carries. For one, the Lions don’t run the ball very often. Two, Bush has never had more than 262 touches in a season and the Lions probably don’t want to go over that. They’ll prefer him to see his touches in the air (maybe 170 carries, 75 catches). Three, they do have two other backs capable of carrying the football. Joique Bell and Mikel Leshoure will see carries behind him.

Leshoure was a 2^nd round pick in 2011, but has largely been a disappointment to this point in his career. He might not even win the #2 running back battle this year, as Bell averaged 5.0 yards per carry to Leshoure’s 3.7 last season. Leshoure is also not near the pass catcher that Bell is and if Bush were to get hurt, Bell would probably take over his role. Leshoure will see some carries as an inside runner, but Bell will probably be 2^nd among Detroit running backs in touches.

If Bush is Darren Sproles/Bell is Pierre Thomas, who has averaged 152 touches in the last 2 seasons. Bell showed well in his first season seeing real action in 2012, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 12^th ranked running back, with no back grading out higher than him and playing fewer snaps. He was 2^nd only to Ray Rice in pass catching grade, but also graded out above average as a runner, averaging 3.0 yards per carry after contact and breaking 11 tackles on 82 carries.

Grade: B

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Offensive Line

While Stafford should have an improved receiving corps and likely running game supporting him, that should be cancelled out by the losses the Lions suffered on the offensive line. They’ve been an excellent offensive line in pass protection in the last 2 seasons, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked pass blocking offensive line in each season, while ranking 4^th in pass block efficiency in 2011 and 6^th in 2012. They haven’t been very good in run blocking, but given the way the Lions operate offensively, pass protection is much more important and the Lions have recently done a great job on holding up in pass protection time and time again.

This off-season, they lost 3 starters on the offensive line and it’s really a downgrade. Left tackle Jeff Backus retired. He would have been in his age 36 season this year, but he still was a decent starter on the blindside, even in his later years. He struggled mightily run blocking last year, which brought his overall grade down below average, but he was great in pass protection, which, again, is what really matters for this team.

He’ll be replaced by 2012 1^st round pick Riley Reiff, who was drafted for this purpose. Reiff graded out above average on 336 snaps as a rookie, but did so largely as a 6^th offensive lineman on the right side of the formation. In 2 games at left tackle in place of an injured Backus, he struggled, which is a concern. He fell in the draft to the Lions at #23 because of his short arms and a number of teams felt his future position would be at right tackle or guard. The Lions will try him at left tackle to start and we’ll see if he holds up.

Gosder Cherilus is gone at right tackle. He was massively overpaid on a 5-year, 34 million dollar deal from the Colts, even before you consider his injury problems, but the Lions will definitely miss what he became in his contract year last season. He graded 8^th among offensive tackles on ProFootballFocus, 2^nd among right tackles and excelled in pass protection, grading out 5^th in pass protection and 1^st among right tackles. They made the right move not paying for a one year wonder, but they will miss him.

Jason Fox and Corey Hilliard will compete for the right tackle job. Fox was a 4^th round pick in 2010 and is very often injured. He hasn’t played a snap since 2010, when he played all 26 of his career snaps in a meaningless week 17 game against the Vikings, in which he struggled. Hilliard, meanwhile, has been a career backup since the Lions took him in the 6^th round in 2007. He didn’t play a snap in 2012 and struggled mightily on 154 snaps in 2011. He’s more experienced than Fox, but might not be better. He’s currently the 2^nd string right tackle.

At right guard, Stephen Peterman is gone. The aging veteran was a decent run blocker, but by far their worst pass protector and overall graded out below average last season. The Lions have a three way battle for the starting job going on between Dylan Gandy, Larry Warford, and Jake Scott. Gandy is a career backup going into his age 31 season, who is somehow leading the battle right now. Warford is a 3^rd round rookie. Scott, meanwhile, is going into his age 32 season and struggled in limited action on an incredibly thin Eagles offensive line last season, only getting the call off the streets mid-season when so many injuries struck. Warford has the most upside of the bunch, but you can’t count on any of these guys as even average starters.

Dominic Raiola remains at center, where he’s been a fixture since the Lions drafted him in the 2^nd round in 2012. He graded out above average last season, ranking as ProFootballFocus’ 13^th ranked center and excelling in pass protection, but he’s going into his age 35 season and was forced to restructure his deal down to the veteran’s minimum this off-season so he could be on his last legs. Plus, last season was the first year he graded out above average since 2009. There’s a strong possibility he struggles this season. He could be pushed by natural center Gandy if Gandy doesn’t win the right guard job.

The only reliable offensive lineman who returns for the Lions is left guard Rob Sims, who happens to be one of the best in the NFL at his position. He’s graded out above average in all 4 seasons as a starter, starting with the Seahawks in 2009. He’s been a top-12 guard in each of the last 2 seasons and had his best year in 2009, when he graded out 9^th at his position. Otherwise, it’s a pretty weak and thin offensive line.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

The Lions also had losses on the defensive line, losing their starting defensive ends and top reserve, but they could actually be a better defensive line this season. Cliff Avril was a perennially horrendous run stopper, grading out 11^th worst, 12^th worst, and 3^rd worst among 4-3 defensive ends against the run in 2010, 2011, and 2012 respectively and he also saw his pass rush grade fall from well above average to above average to just average last season. As a result, he was ProFootballFocus’ 7^th worst ranked 4-3 defensive end overall last season. His 10 sacks look great, but he managed just 5 hits and 19 hurries.

Kyle Vanden Bosch definitely figures to be addition by subtraction. There’s a reason he remains a free agent going into his age 35 season. He graded out 3^rd worst and dead last at his position on ProFootballFocus in 2011 and 2012 respectively, grading out dead last by a fairly wide margin last season. He was done. Lawrence Jackson was their top reserve, but he too graded out below average last year, doing so on 401 snaps.

The defensive end group they’ve been replaced is an upgrade. Ziggy Ansah was the 5^th pick of the draft. He’s incredibly raw, but should have some impact as a rookie. Jason Jones and Israel Idonije were cheap free agent signings. It’s unclear how they plan to use both tweeners. Jones has been great as a situational interior pass rusher in his career, but struggled whenever he’s been forced into an outside role. In 2011, as a defensive end, he graded out 6^th worst at his position, 2^nd worst in pass rush grade, but in 2010, as a defensive tackle, he graded out 6^th best overall and 2^nd best in pass rush grade. He was also well above average on 332 snaps inside with the Seahawks last year.

Idonije has had success in both positions, so they should use him as a starting defensive end and use Jones as a reserve defensive tackle. Last year, he split time at defensive end and defensive tackle, but his composite grade would have been 8^th among 4-3 defensive ends and 6^th among defensive tackles. The only issue is he’s going into his age 33 season, which is why he remained unsigned until late June. Willie Young, a decent, but inconsistent reserve defensive end, would then be the #3 defensive end. They also have 4^th round rookie Devin Taylor at the mix at defensive end.

Lining up Jones at defensive end would be a mistake, but they might make that mistake. CJ Mosley was signed to presumably be the #3 defensive tackle, after signing him to a 2 year, 2.75 million dollar deal this off-season. He excelled as a run stuffer in Jacksonville, grading out 14^th in that aspect last season, so he’ll be an asset, but it’s unclear where they’re putting Jones, so I fear it’ll be defensive end. Either way, the Lions should have an improved defensive end group this season, but if they were to utilize their personnel properly and give Idonije the first crack outside, it would be a big plus.

On top of an improved defensive end group, the Lions should get even better play from their defensive tackles. I’ve already mentioned Mosley’s addition, but they also have arguably (actually not really arguably, it’s not close) the best starting defensive tackle duo in the NFL. Everyone knows about Ndamukong Suh. He was the 2^nd overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft and he was a deadly pass rusher in his first two years in the league, grading out 12^th and 8^th in that aspect in 2010 and 2011 respectively. However, 2012 was his best year in the league as he finally became a well-rounded player, grading out 4^th overall at his position. He should continue being one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL.

However, Nick Fairley, drafted in the first round a year later, 13th overall, is the one that should really get Lions fan excited. As a rookie, Fairley had some injuries and off the field troubles that limited him to just 274 snaps in a backup role, but when he did play, he impressed, grading out above average both against the run and as a pass rusher on ProFootballFocus. In 2012, he once again entered the season as a backup behind veteran Corey Williams, but he wouldn’t stay one for long as he made 7 starts on the season.

Despite still limited playing time, Fairley had 5 sacks, 8 hits, and 21 hurries on 302 pass rush snaps, an 11.3% pass rush rate that’s absurd for a defensive tackle. He also stopped the run very well as well, allowing him to grade out as ProFootballFocus’ 5th rated defensive tackle despite playing just 511 total snaps. That 5th place finish put him just one spot behind Suh and if Fairley hadn’t missed the final 3 games of the season with injury, he looked poised to surpass Suh as Detroit’s highest rated defensive lineman. The only area he needs to clean up is his position leading 11 penalties, something that should improve with age. Fairley just turned 25 in January.

Before getting hurt, Fairley was on an absolute tear, making 5 starts in a row and recording 4 sacks, 4 hits, and 15 hurries, while holding up against the run. In 7 total starts, he had 4 sacks, 6 hits, and 19 hurries, a glimpse of what he can do in 2013 if he starts all of most or the team’s 16 games. He’s heading into his 3^rd season in the season as an undisputed starter and it would not surprise me at all if Fairley’s 2013 season is better than Suh’s. Either way, the Lions have the league’s best 4-3 defensive tackle duo with the combination of Suh and Fairley, their 2010 and 2011 1st round picks. The sky is the limit for this duo. There is plenty of talent on this defensive line. Hopefully they utilize it correctly, but either way, there’s a lot of talent.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Lions also lost at starter at linebacker, as Justin Durant signed with the Cowboys. Durant was just a two-down run stuffer that would come off the field for a 5^th defensive back in sub packages, so it ordinarily would not be a big loss, but Durant was great in that role. He’s not much in coverage, but in the last three years, he’s graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 1st (2010), 7th (2011), and 8th (2012) ranked 4-3 outside linebacker. Mediocre veteran career backup Ashlee Palmer will be taking over, with 2012 5^th and 7^th round picks Tahir Whitehead and Travis Lewis possibly pushing him.

Stephen Tulloch and DeAndre Levy both return as every down linebackers, but both graded out below average last season. Tulloch has a good chance to bounce back. He had graded out above average in each of the last 4 seasons as a starter before last season and he’s only going into his age 28 season so it’s not like he’s washed up or anything. He played last season through knee tendinitis that limited his range so that’s probably the reason for the fluky poor year.

Levy, however, has graded out below average in all 4 seasons as a starter since the Lions took him in the 3^rd round in 2009. Last year, he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 4^th worst rated 4-3 outside linebacker and he should remain one of the worst starting outside linebackers in the NFL. He was a free agent this off-season and the Lions really should have used that opportunity to upgrade that spot. Instead, they gave him a 3-year, 9.75 million dollar contract, rather than locking up Durant. He’s alright in coverage, but has a lot of trouble getting off blocks in the run game.

Grade: C+

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Secondary

The Lions made upgrading their secondary a big focus of their off-season and for good reason. They had a whopping 11 defensive backs plays at least 150 snaps last season, but only 3 graded out above average. They drafted cornerback Darius Slay in the 2^nd round, signed veteran Ronald Bartell, and gave a big contract to safety Glover Quin to try to fix matters. We’ll see how much that helps.

Chris Houston is the bright spot in the secondary. Once a frequent burn victim in the early part of his career in Atlanta and somewhat with the Lions, Houston has turned in back-to-back above average seasons essentially operating as Detroit’s #1 cornerback over the last 2 seasons. He was ProFootballFocus’ 23^rd ranked cornerback last season overall in 2012, allowing 53 catches on 94 attempts for 629 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 6 passes and committing 4 penalties. He should once again be an above average starter.

The Lions have a bunch of options for their #2 cornerback. Ronald Bartell is working with the 1^st team right now, but 2^nd round rookie Darius Slay could eventually be the starter. He’s behind the 8-ball as a rookie dealing with injuries though. 2012 5^th and 6^th round picks Chris Greenwood and Jonte Green are also in the mix. Bill Bentley could also be an option, but the 2012 3^rd round pick seems to have settled in as a slot specialist.

If Bartell is forced to start, it could be trouble. He was once a solid cornerback with the Rams, but age and injury seem to have caught up with him. Going into his age 31 season, Bartell has played in just 8 games due to injury over the past 2 seasons and he hasn’t played well. The Raiders cut him late last season, before the Lions snatched him up. It would be for the best if someone could beat him out.

Slay has the ability to, but he’s hurt and it’s tough to rely on rookies anyway. Jonte Green graded out about average in limited action as a rookie, so he could be an option. Greenwood is more of a long shot, as he missed his entire rookie season with an injury. Bentley, meanwhile, struggled as a rookie, grading out well below average on just 177 snaps. If he had been eligible for ProFootballFocus’ rankings, he would have been 99th out of 113 eligible, despite such a limited snap count. No cornerback played fewer snaps and graded out worse, as he allowed 17 catches on 20 attempts for 165 yards and committing 5 penalties. He could be better in his 2^nd year in the league on the slot, but nothing is certain. Cornerback still remains a question after Houston.

Glover Quin presence does solidify one spot at safety, however. That was the bigger need spot as the Lions tried 6 different players there last season. Quin is only around an average starter and was overpaid on a 5-year, 25 million dollar deal, but they desperately needed someone like him. Louis Delmas was re-signed to possibly solidify the other safety spot, but he’s never been able to do that because of injuries. He’s missed 13 games in the last 2 seasons combined and, once a promising safety, he has graded out below average even when in the lineup as his chronic knee problems seem to have sapped his abilities.

The Lions gave him a 2 year, 7.715 million dollar contract this off-season, but he’s unlikely to play in the pre-season and he’s missed a lot of practice. It’s unlikely he’ll play even close to all 16 games and he might not be what he once was even when he’s on the field. Don Carey and Amari Spievey, veterans with a history of struggling when counted on to start, are their top insurance options. For what it’s worth, both actually played alright in limited action last season, but Spievey was ProFootballFocus’ 75^th ranked safety out of 87 eligible in 2011, the last time he was a starter. Meanwhile, Carey ranked dead last in 2010, the last time he was a starter. It’s an improved group that should have more stability, but there are still plenty of problems.

Grade: C+

Head Coach

Only 9 Head Coaches have been with their current team longer than Jim Schwartz. All 9 have multiple division titles. 6 have Super Bowl rings. 7 made the playoffs last season. Schwartz and Rex Ryan are the only two holdovers from the 2009 Head Coaching class and both are on the hot seat and could lose their jobs with another poor season, even if only because of the lack of patience front offices have demonstrated with Head Coaches in today’s NFL. Schwartz took a lot of the blame for last season’s poor on the field record and for the embarrassing number of arrests the team accumulated off the field. Unlike Ryan, I like Schwartz chances of turning the team around and keeping his job. Remember, prior to last year, he improved this team’s win total in each of his first 3 seasons with the team. Of course, he was starting at 0, but still.

Grade: B-

Overall

The Lions won’t rank 3^rd in points scored and 13^th in points allowed next season like they did with yards in 2012, but only because that was largely the result of the ridiculous amount of return touchdowns they allowed last season, which allowed the Lions to run significantly more plays than their opponents. They’ll be much better than the 17^th in points scored and 27^th in points allowed they were at in 2012 for a number of reasons and they should also have a better record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They should have a top-10 scoring offense and the defense will be good enough for their offense to win some games. They might not make the playoffs, but only because the NFC is loaded. They’ll win noticeably more games.

I don’t think they’re as good as the Packers, but they’re better than the Vikings and on the same level as the Bears, so I think 3-3 in the division is reasonable. Outside of the division, they host Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Dallas, Baltimore, and the Giants. It’s a tough slate, but I don’t think any of those teams are definitely better than them. They should beat Tampa Bay and at worst split the other 4, but I could see them going 4-1 in those games. They also go to Arizona, Washington, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia. Arizona, Cleveland, and Philadelphia are pretty easy games so they should go 3-2 in this bunch. They’re as likely to lose one of those 3 as they are to pull an upset in the other 2. 9 or 10 wins is definitely possible. They were closer to winning that many last year than their record would have suggested, as their 2012 season consisted of numerous fluky things causing them to lose close games.

Projection: 10-6 2^nd in NFC North

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Detroit Lions 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

August 14, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Lions, Uncategorized

QB Matt Stafford (Detroit)

One of the weird statistical things about the Lions in 2012 was that Matt Stafford set an NFL record with 727 passing attempts, but managed just 20 touchdowns. Well, somehow a running game that ran just 391 times on the season managed to steal 17 touchdowns away from Stafford, while backup Shaun Hill stole another 2 on 13 attempts. The Lions should remain very pass heavy this year so Stafford should throw a higher percentage of the team’s touchdowns.

Projection: 4550 passing yards 33 passing touchdowns 16 interceptions 100 rushing yards 1 rushing touchdown (298 pts standard, 364 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Reggie Bush (Detroit)

The Lions plan to utilize Bush the way the Saints utilized him, when he averaged 4.9 catches per game. That’s 78 catches over a 16 game season. That sounds like a lot, but he’s capable of doing so in this offense. The Lions have said they want to get him 80 catches. The inferior Joique Bell caught 52 passes in a part time role last season and Jahvid Best averaged 62 catches per 16 games during his short time as the Lions’ pass catching back before he got hurt. The only thing stopping Bush from getting 80 catches could be injuries. He missed 20 games in 5 seasons with the Saints and, though he only missed 1 in 2 years with the Dolphins, he’s now going into his age 28 season and his 8^th year in the league.

Projection: 170 carries for 750 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 75 catches for 600 receiving yards (183 pts standard, 258 pts PPR)

RB Joique Bell (Detroit)

8/26/13: Joique Bell has beaten out Mikel Leshoure for the #2 back job behind Reggie Bush, so he’s the handcuff you want for the injury prone Bush. He’s also worth a pick on his own merits because he’s an excellent pass catcher and underrated runner who will see touches on this offense. Leshoure isn’t worth drafting.

Mikel Leshoure was a 2^nd round pick in 2011, but has largely been a disappointment to this point in his career. He might not even win the #2 running back battle this year, as Joique Bell averaged 5.0 yards per carry to Leshoure’s 3.7 last season. Leshoure is also not near the pass catcher that Bell is and if Bush were to get hurt, Bell would probably take over his role. Leshoure will see some carries as an inside runner, but Bell will probably be 2^nd among Detroit running backs in touches. If Bush is Darren Sproles, Bell is Pierre Thomas, who has averaged 152 touches in the last 2 seasons. He’s the handcuff you want for Bush owners and a worthwhile late round flier for anyone because of Bush’s injury history.

Projection: 110 carries for 520 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 44 catches for 330 receiving yards (109 pts standard, 153 pts PPR)

WR Calvin Johnson (Detroit)

Another one of the other weird statistical things about the Lions in 2012 was Calvin Johnson sitting the single season receiving record (surpassing Jerry Rice in week 16 no less), but scoring just 5 times. That total should increase for some of the same reasons that Stafford’s should. He probably won’t have a record setting season again, but he’s by far the best receiver on a team that passes a ridiculous amount, has a good young quarterback, and doesn’t have a lot of other passing options. He’s consistently able to beat double and triple teams and the 96 catches for 1681 yards he had in 2011 now seem like a floor. He should have around 1700 receiving yards again and almost definitely will break double digit touchdowns again.

Projection: 110 catches for 1750 receiving yards 12 touchdowns (247 pts standard, 357 pts PPR)

WR Ryan Broyles (Detroit)

Broyles was an incredibly productive collegiate receiver at the University of Oklahoma, catching 349 passes for 4586 yards and 45 touchdowns, but a torn ACL suffered late in his final collegiate season, along with a lack of elite size or speed, dropped him to the Lions in the 2^nd round of the 2012 NFL Draft. However, he plays better than his measurables on tape and is a remarkably hard worker and quick healer.

Projection: 60 catches for 760 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (106 pts standard, 166 pts PPR)

TE Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit)

Pettigrew struggled mightily last season, catching 59 passes for 567 yards and 3 touchdowns on 95 targets, with 9 drops. He averaged just 1.18 yards per route. The 2009 1^st round pick is a good run blocker, but has largely been a disappointment since the Lions drafted him. He’s had better years and it’s possible the ankle injury he played through most of the season was part of why he struggled so much, but he’s never been much better, so I don’t see a big improvement.

Projection: 55 catches for 600 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (90 pts standard, 145 pts PPR)

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Minnesota Vikings 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

August 13, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Uncategorized, Vikings

QB Christian Ponder (Minnesota)

Christian Ponder averaged 5.4 yards per attempt in the 2^nd half of last season after Percy Harvin got hurt and now Harvin is gone. The Vikings have brought in both Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson, but the former has seen better days, while the latter is incredibly raw and might not even start as a rookie. You can do a lot better in a QB2.

Projection: 3000 passing yards 17 passing touchdowns 13 interceptions 250 rushing yards 2 rushing touchdowns (199 pts standard, 233 pts PPR)

RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)

Of the 28 other players to ever rush for 1700+ yards in a season, only 3 exceeded their rushing total the following season. The average 1700+ yard rusher rushed for 615 fewer yards the following season. Sure, some of them got seriously hurt, but it’s not like it would be impossible for Peterson to do so and even when you take out the 4 players who didn’t make it to 200 carries the following season, they still averaged 474 yards fewer the following season. On top of that, those players also averaged 7/10ths of a yard fewer per carry, going from 5.1 yards per carry to 4.4 yards per carry. Now, Peterson is definitely not going to have a bad year. In fact, he’s still my pick to lead the NFL in rushing, but you can lead the NFL in rushing with 1600 yards.

Projection: 320 carries for 1630 rushing yards 12 total touchdowns 35 catches for 240 receiving yards (259 pts standard, 294 pts PPR)

WR Greg Jennings (Minnesota)

Jennings once averaged 75 catches for 1223 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns per season from 2008-2010, while not missing game due to injury, but in the past 2 seasons, he’s missed 11 games with injury and was limited to 103 catches for 1315 yards and 13 touchdowns total. Now he goes from the Brett Favre/Aaron Rodgers combination he spent his entire career with in Green Bay to one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in Christian Ponder. He’s going into his age 30 season and has had a lot of trouble staying healthy lately. Receivers switching teams mid-season usually disappoint. And he’s also spent a lot of time this off-season talking about Rodgers and the Packers like a scorned ex-girlfriend, to the point where Vikings Head Coach Leslie Frazier had to tell him to stop. I don’t know if that’s a bad sign, but it’s not a good sign. Let him be someone else’s problem.

Projection: 60 catches for 770 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (107 pts standard, 167 pts PPR)

TE Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota)

In his 3^rd year in the league, Rudolph could more than the 53 passes he caught last season and could average more than 9.3 yards per catch, but he’s unlikely to score a touchdown on 16.9% of his catches, especially on a team that scored just 18 touchdowns through the air last season (Rudolph had 9). Don’t get suckered in with the touchdown numbers. He’s a talented tight end, but his quarterback situation makes him a mere TE2.

Projection: 57 catches for 600 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (90 pts standard, 147 pts PPR)

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Minnesota Vikings 2013 NFL Season Preview

August 13, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Uncategorized, Vikings

Introduction

The Vikings won 10 games and made the playoffs last season, after winning just 3 the year prior. However, teams that have big win improvements like that tend to regress the following season, roughly about half of the win improvement. If the Vikings were to do that, that would put them at 6 or 7 wins and there’s reason to believe the Vikings will do something like that. There are three things about Minnesota’s 2012 season that are unsustainable.

The first is that they excelled in close games, winning 5 out of 6 games decided by a touchdown or fewer. As a result, they won 10 games despite a point differential of +31 and a Pythagorean Expectation of 8.8 wins. Record in games decided by a touchdown or less tends to be very inconsistent and almost always evens out in the long run. For instance, they were 2-9 in such games in 2011.

There’s no reason to believe they’ll be that bad again in 2013, but at the same time there’s no reason to believe they’ll be as good as they were in 2012 again either. In terms of DVOA, they ranked 14^th in the NFL last season and most importantly for their chances of making the post-season again in 2013, they ranked 9^th in the loaded NFC in DVOA. I think that’s a more accurate assessment of their 2012 season: that they were the 9^th best team in the NFC, but snuck into the 6^th seed because of some “clutch” close wins.

I have reason to believe they won’t even be the 9^th best team in the NFC this season. Keep in mind, the teams ranked 15^th-17^th in DVOA were also NFC teams, as were the teams ranked 19^th-20^th. The difference between being the 9^th and the 14^th best team (Tampa Bay) in the NFC last year was not very significant and if a few more things don’t go quite the Vikings’ way, they could be one of the worst teams in the NFC. One thing that probably won’t go quite the Vikings’ way again is injuries. Last year, they were 2^nd in the NFL in adjusted games lost, essentially losing the equivalent of over 2 important players for the entire season fewer than the average NFL team. That tends to be unsustainable so the Vikings should suffer more bad luck in terms of injury in 2013.

The other thing that probably won’t go quite the Vikings’ way again this season is the MVP, Adrian Peterson. Peterson played at a non-human level in 2012, coming up 9 yards short of the single season rushing record and becoming the 2^nd running back since 1982 to average 6.0 yards per carry or more and carry the ball 300 or more times. It was arguably one of the best single seasons a running back has ever had. It’s a season that no running back will probably match for a long time and unfortunately for Vikings fans, that probably includes Peterson.

No running back in NFL history has ever rushed for 2000 yards twice in a career. No running back has even rushed for 1900 yards twice in a career. Among the top-16 in single season rushing yard totals there are 15 unique names. Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, and OJ Simpson have both rushed for 1800 yards more than once in their career, but only Dickerson did it in back-to-back seasons and he was 23-24 in his first 2 seasons in the NFL. Peterson is going to try to do it when he’s 27-28.

Furthermore, of the 28 other players to ever rush for 1700+ yards in a season, only 3 exceeded their rushing total the following season. In fact, the average 1700+ yard rusher rushed for 615 fewer yards the following season. Sure, some of them got seriously hurt, but it’s not like it would be impossible for Peterson to get hurt and even when you take out the 4 players who didn’t make it to 200 carries the following season, they still averaged 474 yards fewer the following season. On top of that, those players also averaged 7/10ths of a yard fewer per carry, going from 5.1 yards per carry to 4.4 yards per carry. Finally, only 5 players in NFL history have had 3500 rushing yards in a 2-year stretch and only 2 have had 3600.

Now, Peterson is definitely not going to have a bad year. In fact, he’s still my pick to lead the NFL in rushing, but you can lead the NFL in rushing with 1600 yards. I think there’s a decent chance that Peterson gets to 1662 rushing yards, which would give him the 2^nd most rushing yards all-time in a two year span, but either way there’s a very good chance Peterson is rushing for at least 400 yards fewer this season. Plus, remember, in Peterson’s 6 year NFL career, he’s rushed for fewer than 1400 yards 4 times. Last season was the best of his career, but he didn’t suddenly become a significantly better player.

Quarterback

Now, what would a slightly more human performance from Peterson mean for this offense? Well, how Christian Ponder plays will have a lot to do with it. Ponder largely was a game manager for the Vikings last season, averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt, hitching his wagon to Peterson and having him drag him into the post-season.

How improbable was it that the Vikings made the playoffs despite this kind of quarterback play? Well, since 2006, 22 teams have averaged 6 yards or fewer per attempt. Of those 21 teams, 20 won 5 or fewer games, none won more than 7 and as a group they averaged 4.0 wins per season and 14.8 points per game. The Vikings won 10 games and averaged 23.7 points per game. I know the Vikings technically averaged 6.1 YPA, but I don’t really think that extra 1/10 of the yard was what got them the extra 6 wins. That’s why Peterson got my support for MVP, even though it’s near impossible for a running back to truly be the most valuable player in today’s NFL. Peterson was last year.

However, without Peterson rushing for an absurd amount of yardage this season, the Vikings could be in a lot of trouble if Ponder doesn’t improve statistically. Remember, how close the Vikings were to being the 14^th best team in the NFC last year? A few more injuries and a more human season from Adrian Peterson and the Vikings are right there and probably around that aforementioned 5 win mark if Ponder doesn’t improve significantly.

Ponder could be a better quarterback going into his 3^rd season in the NFL, but he was a very NFL ready quarterback coming out of Florida State. He was never a quarterback who had a lot of issues with the non-physical parts of the game (touch, accuracy, decision making, reading defenses), but he’s physically limited and that’s not something that really improves as your career goes along.

Ponder showed this lack of arm strength, completing just 31 of 96 (32.3%) last season on throws outside the hash marks 10+ yards downfield or over the middle of the field 20+ yards downfield. He did most of his work on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and on over the middle throws 10-19 yards downfield, which require less arm strength than throws outside the hash marks. On top of that, only 44.2% of his yardage came on yards in the air, worst in the NFL among eligible quarterbacks. The rest came after the catch, largely from Percy Harvin. He was also ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd worst ranked quarterback in passing grade after ranking 6^th worst as a rookie.

He’s averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt throughout his career and considering how much he struggled last season without Percy Harvin, he could be even less than that this season. Harvin went down for the year midway through the 9^th game of the season and Ponder averaged just 5.4 yards per attempt in games 9-16 last season.

Grade: C

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Of course, it’s not like the Vikings didn’t replace Harvin and I think they actually made the right move trading him away. Rather than giving him a massive extension when he’s never proven he can stay healthy, the Vikings used the money they otherwise would have spent on him to sign Greg Jennings and pay rookie Cordarelle Patterson, who they drafted in the 1^st round, which was what the Vikings got from the Seahawks for Harvin (it wasn’t the exact pick, but for the purposes of evaluating the move, it was close enough). Now they have Jennings and Patterson, rather than Harvin, who is once again hurt, now with the Seahawks.

However, Jennings and Patterson still do not make this a very good receiving corps and the two combined of them won’t give them what Harvin gave Ponder in the 1^st half of last season. Ponder still doesn’t have much to work with in terms of weapons, which is why I don’t expect much improvement from him this season and possibly an even worse season. Jennings once averaged 75 catches for 1223 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns per season from 2008-2010, while not missing game due to injury, but in the past 2 seasons, he’s missed 11 games with injury and was limited to 103 catches for 1315 yards and 13 touchdowns total.

Now he goes from the Brett Favre/Aaron Rodgers combination he spent his entire career with in Green Bay to one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in Christian Ponder. He’s going into his age 30 season and has had a lot of trouble staying healthy lately. Receivers switching teams mid-season usually disappoint. And he’s also spent a lot of time this off-season talking about Rodgers and the Packers like a scorned ex-girlfriend, to the point where Vikings Head Coach Leslie Frazier had to tell him to stop. I don’t know if that’s a bad sign, but it’s not a good sign. He’s unlikely to be the #1 receiver that Ponder needs even when he’s in the lineup.

Patterson, meanwhile, is incredibly raw. Most 1st round rookie receivers are. Since 2005, 28 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 40 catches for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. However, Patterson is even rawer, playing just one season of real college football. He’s currently trying to beat out marginal veteran Jerome Simpson for the starting job and he’s unlikely to make any real impact as a rookie. Simpson, meanwhile, has averaged a mediocre 1.27 yards per route run over the past 2 seasons as a starter with Minnesota and Cincinnati, while struggling with drops, off the field issues, and injuries.

Jarius Wright will remain as the slot receiver either way. He definitely flashed in the 2^nd half of last season after Harvin went down as the 4^th round rookie caught 22 passes for 310 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 133 routes run in 7 games after Harvin’s injury. He could continue to be an asset in 3-wide receiver sets.

Kyle Rudolph remains at tight end. A solid blocker, Rudolph also caught 53 passes for 493 yards and 9 touchdowns last season in his 2^nd year in the league. He’s a solid goal line threat, but probably needs a new quarterback before he can reach his statistical potential, as the 2011 2^nd round pick goes into his 3^rd year in the league. John Carlson, meanwhile, is the #2 tight end, serving as a move tight end. He was signed to an absurd 5 year, 25 million dollar deal last off-season despite missing the entire previous season with injury and totaling just 137 catches in 3 seasons before that and he predictably flopped, catching just 8 passes last season. He probably won’t offer much more this season. Overall, it’s still a very weak group at wide receiver and that’s going to continue to make it hard for Ponder to move the ball through the air. They could be right around that aforementioned 6 yards per attempt mark this season.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

I’ve already gone into detail about Peterson. He’s the best running back in the NFL and a future Hall of Famer, but history suggests he won’t even come close to rushing for 2000 yards again. He’ll probably rush for 1500-1600 yards again, for the 3^rd time in his career, and average about 5 yards per carry on 300 attempts, but he won’t be what he was last year simply because few rarely are. Peterson’s one weakness is that he’s only caught 177 passes in 6 seasons so he doesn’t help Ponder out much in the air. Toby Gerhart will remain as the pure backup. He’s rushed for 1022 yards and 3 touchdowns on 240 carries in 3 seasons in the NFL, but unless Peterson gets hurt he’s unlikely to see much more than the 50 carries he saw last season.

Grade: A

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Offensive Line

Peterson does get a lot of help from his blocking, as the Vikings ranked 3^rd in the NFL on ProFootballFocus in run blocking grade last season. Not only does he have two great run blocking fullbacks in Jerome Felton and Rhett Ellison (Ellison is more of an h-back, but still), who graded out 4^th and 2^nd respectively on ProFootballFocus among fullbacks in terms of blocking last year, but he also has a great offensive line, with strong starters at left tackle, center, and right tackle. They also hold up in pass protection, grading out 16^th on ProFootballFocus in that aspect last season and ranking 7^th in pass block efficiency.

Left tackle Matt Kalil played well from day 1 on the blindside as the 4^th overall pick in last year’s draft, grading out 22^nd among tackles on ProFootballFocus. He was tied with Loadholt was 22^nd, as they had the exact same grade. Kalil and Loadholt are different types of players. Kalil graded out 12^th in pass protection and only committed 6 penalties, but graded out below average as a run blocker, while Loadholt was 4^th in run blocking, but not as good in pass protection and committed 11 penalties. Kalil could be even better in his 2^nd year in the league, while Loadholt should remain an above average starter, as he’s been in every season so far in his career since being taken in the 2^nd round in 2009, with the exception of 2010. He rightfully got a 4-year, 25 million dollar contract this off-season.

Sullivan, meanwhile, was ProFootballFocus’ 1^st ranked center last season, excelling as a run blocker. That was no fluke as he was 3^rd the year before. He should continue playing at a very high level in 2013 and he might be the best center in the NFL. The talented trio of Kalil, Loadholt, and Sullivan also didn’t miss a single snap last season.

The Vikings do have weaknesses at both guard spots, however. Charlie Johnson and Brandon Fusco ranked 61^st and 73^rd respectively among 81 eligible guards last season. They don’t have much to push them either. Jeff Baca and Travis Bond are 6^th and 7^th round pick rookies only, while Seth Olsen was awful last year in Indianapolis. He would have graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 10^th worst ranked guard last season if he had been eligible, but he wasn’t because he played just 289 snaps. Only Eben Britton played fewer snaps and graded out worse. Overall though, it’s a very solid offensive line.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

The Vikings used a 1st round pick on defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd, but he’s going to serve primarily as Kevin Williams’ direct backup. He was primarily drafted to be Williams’ heir apparent and spell the veteran more often as Williams goes into his age 33 contract year and he won’t have a significant impact as a rookie. Instead, a veteran, Fred Evans, could be the one who has a breakout year on the defensive line for the Vikings, at least in his specific role.

In his age 30 season, Evans, a career backup, will battle with Letroy Guion for the base defensive tackle job , serving as a two-down run stuffer in base packages. According to Head Coach Leslie Frazier, he’ll be given every chance to win that job. If Evans shows himself in camp to be the player he was last year, he should win that job. Evans finished the regular season as ProFootballFocus’ 12th ranked defensive tackle and no one played as few snaps as him, 342, and had a higher grade. That doesn’t even take into account his best performance of the season, in the Vikings’ playoff game against the Packers, when he had 5 tackles for offensive failure (within 4 yards of the original LOS on 1st down, 6 yards on 2nd down, and the full distance on 3rd and 4th down). Post-season included, he was ProFootballFocus’ 7th rated defensive tackle.

His biggest strength was playing the run, which will be important as he attempts to win that right defensive tackle job. Only 2 players had a higher rating against the run on ProFootballFocus than him, with post-season included, as he had 20 tackles for offensive failure on the season, also known as a stop. With 17 of these coming on 166 running plays, he had a run stop percentage of 10.2%, good for 5th in the NFL among eligible defensive tackles. He wasn’t too shabby as a pass rusher as well, as he graded out just about average with 2 sacks, 2 hits, and 4 hurries on 188 pass rush snaps.

Guion, meanwhile, had just 18 stops all season, despite playing 539 snaps. With 14 of these coming on 235 run snaps, his run stop percentage was just 6.0%, closer to the bottom of the league, 53th out of 85 eligible. He graded out dead last among 85 eligible defensive tackles on ProFootballFocus in the regular season, 76^th out of 79 eligible with post-season included. His biggest weakness was the run, which is not a good thing when you’re trying to win a starting nose tackle job against someone who was one of the best in the league in that regard last season. I expect Evans to win this starting job and have a great year as a starter in the base packages. Guion, meanwhile, is not a lock for a roster spot, owed a non-guaranteed 2.45 million.

Kevin Williams has been a top-9 defensive tackle on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 5 seasons, the only defensive tackle in the NFL to maintain kind of consistent success, but he could drop out this season. He’s going into his age 33 season and, with Floyd coming in, Frazier says the plan is to limit Williams’ snaps to 30-40 per game, rather than the 52.2 per game he averaged last season. He could still be effective in a more limited role, but he’s unlikely to be the big time difference maker he normally is. He’s unlikely to be back in 2014. We’ll see if Floyd can flash in a limited role this season and make up for Williams’ slack, but it’s tough to count on a rookie to perform like that.

The Vikings have a trio of talented defensive ends in Jared Allen, Brian Robison, and Everson Griffen and frequently play them at the same time on passing downs, along with the under tackle (this year either Williams or Floyd). It’s a big part of the reason why they had 44 sacks last season and graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 7^th ranked team rushing the passer. Allen is the biggest name, but he also had the worst grade of the bunch last season. He rushed the passer well, grading out 11^th at his position in that aspect and producing 11 sacks, 17 hits, and 47 hurries on 678 pass rush snaps, an 11.1% pass rush rate, but he also committed 9 penalties and struggled against the run. He’s had better years, grading out 5^th in 2011, 7^th in 2009, and 8^th in 2008, but going into his age 31 season, his best days could be behind him. He’ll still be at least an above average starter either way and could be even more.

Robison had the best grade of the bunch, grading out 14^th among 4-3 defensive ends on ProFootballFocus, excelling as a pass rusher, with 9 sacks, 7 hits, and 40 hurries on 551 pass rush snaps, a 10.2% pass rush rate and, unlike Allen, he played the run well and committed just 4 penalties. He’s graded out above average in both seasons as a starter. Griffin, meanwhile, is the 3^rd end and frequently would line up as a defensive tackle on passing downs. He was overall just an average player, rushing the passer and stopping the run alright, but committed 8 penalties. He had 8 sacks, 12 hits, and 23 hurries on 423 pass rush snaps, a 10.2% pass rush rate. This trio should continue rushing the passer well this season.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The front four is very solid, but the back 7 has plenty of questions. Chad Greenway is the mainstay at linebacker, playing every down outside, but once an above average starter, he’s graded out below average in each of the last 2 seasons. Erin Henderson moves to the inside and will be an every down linebacker this season, but it’s a poor positional fit for him. He was great as a two-down run stuffing outside linebacker and could easily continue stopping the run well at inside linebacker, but he’s very poor in coverage, coming off the field regularly throughout his career for a 5^th defensive back in sub packages. Last season, he was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd worst ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in coverage. He shouldn’t be an every down player. They tried this experiment briefly last year before giving up.

Desmond Bishop takes over Henderson’s old two down role outside. Bishop was an above average every down starting middle linebacker with the Packers in both 2010 and 2011, topping out at 5^th overall in 2010, but he missed all of last season with a torn hamstring. He’s only going into his age 29 season, but it’s concerning that the Packers cut him, that he had to take a minimum deal on the open market, and that the Vikings are moving him to the outside and making him a part-time player, even with coverage liability Henderson in the middle. Perhaps his injury is having noticeable lingering effects.

It would definitely be in the Vikings’ best interest if he could prove himself capable of the every down middle linebacker job and move Henderson back to where he’s best, but it remains to be seen if he can do so. Leslie Frazier has already said he’s not a lock for a roster spot. Marvin Mitchell would play outside in that scenario. He’s a career backup, but he’s been working as the 1^st team outside linebacker as Bishop works himself back in Training Camp.

Grade: B-

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Secondary

One other reason the Vikings will be worse this season is the loss of cornerback Antoine Winfield. Winfield graded out #1 among cornerback on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 2 seasons he was healthy, 2010 and 2012. Of course, he’s missed 17 games in the last 4 seasons, and he was going into his age 37 season, and much of that was run grade, but they’ll still miss what he provided for them last season. He was 19^th at his position in coverage grade, playing inside in sub packages and outside in base packages, allowing 60 catches on 90 attempts for 575 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 6 passes and committing 2 penalties and, of course, his work in the run game is unparalleled.

Without him, the Vikings will go forward with the trio of Chris Cook, Xavier Rhodes, and Josh Robinson at cornerback. Cook is a decent player when in the lineup, but has somehow played in just 22 of 48 possible games in his first 3 years in the league since the Vikings took him in the 2^nd round in 2010. Perhaps he can put it all together and stay healthy in his contract year this year, but it’s doubtful. AJ Jefferson is insurance and while he’s more reliable than most #4 cornerbacks, he’s graded out slightly below average in the last 2 seasons as a starter, after barely playing as an undrafted rookie in 2010.

Xavier Rhodes will start opposite Cook, but it’s very tough to count on rookie defensive backs, even if he was a 1^st rounder. Josh Robinson, meanwhile, will take over Winfield’s old slot spot and will be a significant downgrade to say the least. As a 3^rd round rookie last year, he graded out 108^th out of 113 eligible cornerbacks on ProFootballFocus, allowing 53 catches on 73 attempts for 489 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting just 1 pass and committing 3 penalties. He could be better in his 2^nd year in the league, but he’ll be playing in an unfamiliar spot on the slot. He played just 8 snaps there as a rookie.

Harrison Smith is the bright spot in this secondary. He was ProFootballFocus’ 19^th ranked safety last year as a 1^st round rookie and while he struggled against the run, he was 6^th at his position in coverage. He could be even better in his 2^nd year in the league. He’ll once again start next to Jamarca Sanford. Sanford actually graded out above average last season, but he was awful in his first year as a starter in 2011, grading out dead last at his position. We’ll see which player shows up in 2013. Their other option at the position is Mistral Raymond, who was horrible in limited action last season, grading out 83^rd out of 88 eligible safeties despite playing just 389 snaps.

Grade: C+

Head Coach

Leslie Frazier got his option for 2014 picked up this off-season after a 16-22 start to his Vikings career, highlighted by last year’s playoff appearance. A larger extension could be in the works, but if the Vikings struggle this season those plans may be put on hold. Either way, I would be very surprised if he weren’t the Head Coach of the Vikings in 2014, as fickle as front offices can be with Head Coaches nowadays. Last year’s surprise season buys him a good amount of job security.

Grade: B

Introduction

The Vikings should have a more even record in close games and lose more players to injury in 2013 than they did in 2012. That will go a long way towards this team regressing in terms of win total, as will the loss of Winfield, but a more human season by Adrian Peterson could be the killer as the Vikings figure to struggle mightily to move the ball through the air once again. The NFC is a loaded conference this year and someone has to lose all those games. I think there’s a good chance it’s the Vikings.

They play a brutal schedule in arguably the toughest division in football and games against the NFC East and AFC North won’t be picnics either. They weren’t far off from being the 14^th best team in the NFC last year, in least in terms of DVOA (which is significantly more consistent on a year to year basis than win total). Every year, one team goes from the playoffs to 5 or fewer wins. I think the Vikings are by far the most likely to do so this season.

I think they’re the worst team in their division and they’ll struggle to win more than 2 wins and 1 win is also a strong possibility. They also host Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Washington, and Philadelphia. Cleveland and Philadelphia will be easier games and Pittsburgh isn’t a good road team, so I’ll give them 2 wins in this 5 and 2 wins in the division. However, their road schedule takes them to the Giants, Dallas, Seattle, Baltimore, and Cincinnati. They’ll be lucky to win more than one of those games. With only 2 truly easy games on the schedule, they could easily be this year’s surprise team, but in the wrong direction.

Projection: 5-11 4^th in NFC North

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New York Jets 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

August 12, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Jets, Uncategorized

QB Geno Smith (NY Jets)

8/29/13: Mark Sanchez sounds like he’ll miss multiple weeks with injury, so Geno Smith, by default, looks to be the Jets’ starting quarterback. It’ll probably remain that way even when Sanchez returns because the Jets won’t want to kill the rookie’s confidence by benching him mid-season. Don’t expect much from Smith though. The history of non-1^st round pick quarterbacks in the NFL is pretty poor, especially as rookies (Andy Dalton and Russell Wilson are the exception not the rule). Smith looked awful in his first extended pre-season action during the 3^rd pre-season game.

Projection: 3000 passing yards, 12 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 200 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (163 pts standard, 187 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Chris Ivory (NY Jets)

In 3 seasons with the Saints, Ivory rushed for 1307 yards and 8 touchdowns on just 256 carries, an impressive 5.0 YPC. Now going to the Jets, he’ll finally get a chance to be atop the depth chart. We’ve seen what Ivory has done in 250 carries in his career and it would be huge if he could do that again. He probably won’t do quite that as he’ll be running against stacked boxes much more often with Mark Sanchez/Geno Smith under center than he was with Drew Brees, but the Jets actually have a solid run blocking offensive line, so they’ll give him help. The other concern is if he can remain effective when getting 15-20 carries per game for an extended period of time, something he’s never done. He’s also had injury issues of his own and is currently battling hamstring problems in Training Camp.

Projection: 230 carries for 1010 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns 14 catches for 100 receiving yards (153 pts standard, 167 pts PPR)

RB Bilal Powell (NY Jets)

8/25/13: Bilal Powell has been working as the starter for the Jets this pre-season and getting more touches than Chris Ivory. This won’t continue into the season. The Jets are just limiting Ivory’s carries as he works through hamstring problems and trying to keep him fresh for the regular season. However, Powell is the clear #2 back and is worth a late round flier because he’ll be the starter should the injury prone Ivory miss any time. Hamstring problems tend to linger. He’ll also play the majority of the passing downs.

Projection: 120 carries for 440 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 25 catches for 200 receiving yards (88 pts standard, 113 pts standard)

WR Jeremy Kerley (NY Jets)

Likely to be without Santonio Holmes, the Jets will go forward with the highly uninspiring trio of Jeremy Kerley, Stephen Hill, and Braylon Edwards at wide receiver. Kerley is the only one who is any good in that bunch. He led the team in receiving with 56 catches for 827 yards and 2 touchdowns last season and he did it on 88 targets so he wasn’t just a volume receiver. The 5-9 188 pounder is primarily a slot specialist. He’s the only Jets receiver worth owning and even he doesn’t have much upside.

Projection: 54 catches for 800 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (110 pts standard, 164 pts PPR)

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New York Jets 2013 NFL Season Preview

August 12, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Jets, Uncategorized

Introduction

Ah, the Jets. The media’s punching bag. I’ll admit, they’re fun to make fun of, leading the NFL in butt fumbles and what not, but they’re not the worst team in the NFL, as they’re often made out to be. They have talent, mostly on the defensive side of the ball. Darrelle Revis is gone, but he played all of 93 snaps with the team last season and they still played well defensively, so he was expendable going into his contract year. Credit the Jets for realizing they weren’t going to compete either way this year and getting something for him rather than watching him walk for nothing next March. Even without him, they ranked 9^th in the NFL in defensive DVOA, thanks largely to the emergence of Antonio Cromartie as a Revis-lite #1 cornerback.

Of course, the Jets did rank 20^th in the NFL surrendered 23.4 points per game, but that’s because their offense, which ranked 30^th in offensive DVOA, couldn’t stay on the field. They’re closer to being the 9^th place defense like DVOA suggests than the 20^th. They were also 8^th in yards allowed. Offensively, they scored just 17.6 points per game, 27^th in the NFL and things don’t look like they’ll be any better this season.

They have some talent on the offensive line, but that’s largely wasted if you have a quarterback who can’t hit receivers even when protected. Their offensive line may help them get their running game back going this season if new starting running back Chris Ivory can be as good as he looked in flashes in New Orleans, but this is a passing league first and foremost and the Jets may have the worst quarterback situation in the NFL, after maybe Jacksonville.

Quarterbacks

Everyone knows about Mark Sanchez. Out of 32 qualified quarterbacks, he ranked 31^st in QB rating last season, completing 54.3% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. He was also ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd worst ranked quarterback last season. This isn’t a new thing for him. His career high in QB rating is 78.2, from the 2011 season, and his career QB rating is 71.7. The Jets used to have a fantastic supporting cast which allowed them to mask Sanchez’s deficiencies, but he’s always had them. They’ve just been really obvious over the past 2 seasons. He was ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd worst ranked quarterback in both 2009 and 2011 as well and in his best season in 2010 he was still 28^th out of 37 eligible. He has to go.

They drafted Geno Smith in the 2^nd round this April for this reason, but he might not be much better, at least as a rookie. Quarterbacks that fall out of the first round usually have a very low success rate. Of the 29 teams who know who their week 1 starter at quarterback is going to be, 20 of them will be starting quarterbacks who were drafted in the 1^st round. Of last season’s 12 playoff teams, 8 of them started quarterbacks who were drafted in the 1^st round. And this isn’t some fluke. This is how it always is. Quarterbacks drafted in the 1^st round don’t always pan out (see Sanchez, Mark), but guys that the NFL allows to fall out of the 1^st round rarely make it as starters.

It makes sense. The NFL is a quarterback league and the quarterback position is so valuable that if you have the baseline skills to play quarterback, you’re going to go in the 1^st round. Guys who fall out of the 1^st round usually have something wrong with them. Sure, the process isn’t perfect and guys like Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Colin Kaepernick can slip through the cracks, but when you draft a quarterback in the 2^nd round, more often than not, you’re getting a career backup at best.

With Geno Smith, what’s wrong with him is that nothing stands out about him on tape. He doesn’t have a bad arm and he’s not inaccurate and he can run a little bit, but he doesn’t do anything that wows. It’s very concerning that the entire NFL let him fall out of the 1st round in a year when quarterback demand exceeded quarterback supply by more than any year in recent memory. Non-1st round pick quarterbacks especially struggle as rookies. Andy Dalton and Russell Wilson have been the exception over the last 2 seasons, but the previous 3 non-1st round pick quarterbacks to start week 1 were Chris Weinke, Quincy Carter, and Kyle Orton.

Chris Weinke, a 4th round pick, got the week 1 start for the Panthers in 2001 because he was 29. Still, he completed just 54.3% of his passes for an average of 5.4 YPA and 11 touchdowns to 19 interceptions that season. Quincy Carter, a 2nd round pick, got the week 1 start for the Cowboys that same season, completing just 51.1% of his passes for 6.1 YPA, and 5 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. Meanwhile, Kyle Orton, a 4th round pick, got the start for the Bears in 2005, completing just 51.6% of his passes for an average of 5.1 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions.

Of course, Smith might not even get a chance to start this season. Rex Ryan seems prepared to go down swinging with Mark Sanchez. They’ve even discussed using Geno Smith as an option specialist quarterback, which is one of the most asinine ideas I’ve heard in a while. They couldn’t get the option specialist idea going last year with Tim Tebow and trying with a quarterback who isn’t primarily a runner like Geno Smith isn’t going to make things better. Smith can run at times, but unlike Tebow, he’s most comfortable in the pocket. That just sounds like a recipe for disaster and it could hurt Smith’s development.

Then again, while Sanchez seems to have Rex Ryan’s full support, Ryan doesn’t seem to have anyone’s full support. The front office is all new this season, led by 1^st time GM John Idzik, and Ryan is really the only holdover from last year’s debacle. It seems like he’s just around because the front office didn’t want to have to pay two coaches. The Idzik/Ryan combination was most recently in the news when Idzik suggested that Ryan didn’t have full control of who the starting quarterback would be.

Smith seems like Idzik’s guy. He drafted him. Sanchez wouldn’t even be on the roster if his salary wasn’t guaranteed. Ryan has stronger ties to Sanchez and no ties to the new front office. Ryan might not last the season and the team could easily quit on their lame duck Head Coach after a slow start, much like the Buccaneers did in 2011 and the Eagles did in 2012. That could lead to the Jets winning even fewer games than they otherwise would have. It’s a mess.

Ordinarily, the Jets’ poor turnover margin from 2012, -14, would be a sign of an impending turn around. For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

However, that might not be the case with the Jets. They didn’t have bad luck recovering fumbles. In fact, they recovered 54.17% of fumbles that hit the ground. Mark Sanchez was simply a turnover machine, throwing 18 interceptions and fumbling 9 times. I don’t foresee that changing this season and it could be a similar situation with Geno Smith under center. They’ll probably have a turnover margin of -10 or worse again this season.

Grade: C-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Their receiving corps won’t help whoever is under center. Santonio Holmes was signed to 5-year, 45.25 million dollar contract before the 2011 season to be their #1 wide receiver, but he’s been very disappointing. He’s had several confrontations with coaches and teammates and last season, when he hurt his foot against the 49ers, he just threw the ball up in the air in frustration, only to have it returned for a touchdown. It was almost like he knew he was done for the year and just didn’t care anymore.

Now, 11 months after the injury, he’s still not practicing and he could miss at least the first 6 games of the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list and he may end up going on injured reserve for the 2^nd straight season. Reports say the Jets privately feel Holmes is milking his injury and taking his recovery easy because he really doesn’t care if he plays this season, set to make 7.5 million guaranteed regardless and almost definitely going to be cut after the season regardless. If true, he’s making a very dumb move and killing his market value for next off-season. He’ll rightfully be labeled as a teammate and someone who doesn’t love the game. Even when on the field, he’s unlikely to be an asset.

Without him, the Jets would go forward with the highly uninspiring trio of Jeremy Kerley, Stephen Hill, and Braylon Edwards at wide receiver. Kerley is the only one who is any good in that bunch. He led the team in receiving with 56 catches for 827 yards and 2 touchdowns last season and he did it on 88 targets so he wasn’t just a volume receiver. The 5-9 188 pounder is primarily a slot specialist.

Hill, meanwhile, was awful as a 2^nd round rookie and looked every bit as raw as he was expected to be. He caught just 45.7% of his targets, 21 catches on 46 attempts, while dropping 6 passes and averaging less than a yard per route run on 262 routes run. He was ProFootballFocus’ 94^th ranked wide receiver out of 105 eligible. He could be better in his 2^nd year in the league, but it’s not promising. Edwards, meanwhile, has had some good seasons and is somehow only 30, but there’s a reason he was available so late into the off-season. He’s played just 541 snaps over the past 2 seasons and is barely worth a roster spot anymore. He could be their #1 receiver, matched up with Darrelle Revis, when they play the Buccaneers week 1.

Grade: C-

Running Backs

The Jets’ best chance to move the ball on offense is running the ball with new running back Chris Ivory. This was also something they couldn’t do last year as they averaged 3.8 yards per carry led by the uninspiring duo of Shonn Greene and Bilal Powell, 23rd in the NFL. Enter Chris Ivory. Ivory cost just a 4th round pick and a cheap 3 year, 6 million dollar deal, but he has the ability to be a real breakout star and give them a strong running game once more.

Ivory was a real find for the Saints as an undrafted free agent from Tiffin in 2009. He made the roster as a rookie and though he was never high on the depth chart behind Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles, when injuries struck, and they frequently did, he always made the most of his opportunity. In 3 seasons with the Saints, Ivory rushed for 1307 yards and 8 touchdowns on just 256 carries, an impressive 5.0 YPC.

Now going to the Jets, he’ll finally get a chance to be atop the depth chart. We’ve seen what Ivory has done in 250 carries in his career and it would be huge if he could do that again. He probably won’t do quite that as he’ll be running against stacked boxes much more often with Mark Sanchez/Geno Smith under center than he was with Drew Brees, but the Jets actually have a solid run blocking offensive line, so they’ll give him help. The other concern is if he can remain effective when getting 15-20 carries per game for an extended period of time, something he’s never done. He’s also had injury issues of his own and is currently battling hamstring problems in Training Camp.

If Ivory were to get hurt, their other options are not good. Bilal Powell has a 3.7 career YPC. Joe McKnight is not expected to stick on the roster and briefly was a cornerback last year. Mike Goodson actually got a more lucrative contract than Ivory’s extension, but he’s not an every down back and was arrested for DUI and gun charges this off-season. There will be plenty of opportunity for Ivory to be a 250+ carry back if he can stay healthy.

Grade: B

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Offensive Line

The Jets’ offensive line will help their running game, as they’ve graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 12^th ranked run blocking offensive line in each of the last 2 seasons and 4^th in 2010. They’re also good in pass protection, grading out 1^st, 13^th, and 10^th in pass blocking in 2010, 2011, and 2012 respectively. However, Mark Sanchez only completes 60.6% of his passes in his career even when not pressured so their pass blocking talent is wasted because of their quarterback play. Last season, Sanchez was pressured on just 29.2% of his drop backs, 11^th fewest in the NFL. However, he only completed 58.4% of his passes when not pressured and threw 14 interceptions to 13 touchdowns. He also took a sack on 22.8% of pressured drop backs, 6^th most in the NFL.

Center Nick Mangold is the rock of the offensive line. Mangold actually had one of the worst seasons in his career last year, grading out as “only” ProFootballFocus’ 6^th ranked center. Previous to last season, he graded out in the top-2 among centers in every season from 2008-2011. He remains one of the top centers in the NFL, excelling in run blocking, but also holding up well in pass protection. Left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson is also one of the best players in the NFL at his respective position. With the exception of a down 2011 year, Ferguson has been a top-7 tackle every year since 2008. And in that down year, he still played very well, grading out 20^th at his position.

Right tackle Austin Howard returns after playing pretty well in his first season as a starter in 2012. He graded out above average. He struggled in pass protection, allowing 10 sacks, but Mark Sanchez made him look worse than he was in pass protection and he also excelled as a run blocker. On top of that, he committed just 4 penalties and graded out above average overall. He should remain a solid starter, even if he is somewhat of a liability in pass protection.

The change on the offensive line comes at guard, where Matt Slauson and Brandon Moore are both gone as free agents (the latter has retired). Both players graded out above average last season (Moore was actually 4^th at his position) so they’ll be tough to replace. Willie Colon will step in at left guard. He reinvented himself as a solid guard last year in his first season at the position. He was once an excellent right tackle, but he missed all but 1 game from 2010-2011 with injuries and they seem to have sapped his abilities.

He’s still a solid player when he’s in the lineup, but he also missed 5 games with injuries last season. He’s going into his age 30 season so he’s not getting any younger and he’ll probably miss at least a few games with injury this season. Vladimir Ducaase and Brian Winters are the top candidates to take over if he missed times with injury. Ducaase is a 2010 2^nd round pick who has played sparingly as a backup in his career, while Winters is a 3^rd round rookie.

Stepping in at right guard is Stephen Peterman. Once a solid starter, Peterman graded out slightly below average last year and, going into his age 31 season, his best days are probably behind him. He was a good run blocker, but struggled mightily in pass protection. He could be pushed by Winters for the starting job at some point this season, if not before week 1. There’s still some talent here at guard, but they’ve downgraded from last season. Overall, it’s still a very strong offensive line.

Grade: A-

Defensive Line

As I mentioned, the Jets have plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball. They’ve spent a first round pick on a defensive lineman in each of the last 3 drafts and each one will be featured prominently in their hybrid defensive scheme. Muhammad Wilkerson is the best of the bunch. The 2011 1^st round pick had a big time breakout year in his 2^nd season last year, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd ranked 3-4 defensive end behind only JJ Watt.

Wilkerson wasn’t the pass rusher Watt was, but he still did well in that aspect, with 5 sacks, 10 hits, and 22 hurries on 472 pass rush snaps, a 7.8% pass rush rate. He graded out 4^th at his position in that aspect, but as a run stuffer he at least rivaled Watt. If not for Watt, he actually would have graded out as ProFootballFocus’ top ranked 3-4 defensive end in their 5 year history. He was ProFootballFocus’ 5^th rated overall defensive player. He should continue being an elite player in his 3^rd year in the league. He plays defensive tackle in 4-3 packages and defensive end in 3-4 packages.

1^st round pick Sheldon Richardson will also play that role and see significant snaps as a rookie. We’ll see how the 13^th overall pick holds up. Mike DeVito and Quinton Coples essentially split that role last season. DeVito, a very talented two-down run stuffer, is now in Kansas City, while Coples, a 2012 1^st round pick, is moving to rush linebacker in 3-4 sets this year. He’ll continue rushing the passer as a 4-3 defensive end in 4-3 packages.

Coples seems like an odd fit as a rush linebacker at 6-6 284. Even though he’s working to lose weight, he’ll probably be playing in the 270s this season. While Mario Williams and Tamba Hali have had success at this position in that weight range, they’re the exception not the rule. As a rookie, he graded out about average on 516 snaps, struggling against the run, but excelling as a pass rusher, with 6 sacks, 9 hits, and 14 hurries on 312 pass rush snaps, a 9.3% pass rush rate. He could have a better year in a bigger role in his 2^nd year in the league, but I don’t like the positional fit so that could hurt him. They probably would have been better off using the 13^th pick on Jarvis Jones instead of Richardson and leaving Coples on the line.

The Jets are also really lacking for a good opposing edge rusher. Calvin Pace was a cap casualty this off-season, but was re-signed to a cheaper one year deal and looks like the favorite to once again line up as an every down edge rusher, playing rush linebacker in 3-4 sets and defensive end in 4-3 sets. Going into his age 33 season, he looks pretty done. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd worst ranked rush linebacker last season, especially struggling as a pass rusher.

Kenrick Ellis will take over as the nose tackle for the departed Sione Pouha, who was once a great run stopper, but struggled last year through a serious back injury. Ellis was a 3^rd round pick in 2011 and has played 308 nondescript snaps in 2 years in the league. In base 3-4 packages, he’ll play on the line with Wilkerson and Richardson, with Pace and Coples as the rush linebackers. In base 4-3 packages, he’ll come off the field and the four aforementioned players will play on the line.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

David Harris remains as an every down linebacker, but only because the Jets still owe him guaranteed money on what was a very short sighted, 4 year, 36 million dollar extension, with 29.5 of that guaranteed, signed before the 2011 season. Harris has never graded out significantly above average and last year was one of the worst linebackers in the NFL, grading out 48^th out of 53 eligible middle linebackers. He especially struggles against the run.

Next to him, 2012 3^rd round pick Demario Davis will be moving into a larger role, after serving as a coverage complement to departed run stuffing middle linebacker Bart Scott. This year, he’ll take over as an every down linebacker. As a rookie, he graded out below average on 315 snaps. Garrett McIntyre will be the 3^rd linebacker in base 4-3 sets, coming off the field in passing downs. He’ll be a run stopping specialist and he’s pretty mediocre. On top of that, with their poor cap situation, they’re really lacking for depth in the front 7.

Grade: C+

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Secondary

Part of the reason the Jets were comfortable letting Revis go was because of the emergence of Antonio Cromartie as a legitimate #1 shutdown cornerback. Matching up primarily against opponent’s #1 receivers, Cromartie graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 5^th ranked cornerback in coverage, allowing 40 catches on 87 attempts for 511 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 12 passes and committing 6 penalties. He was always a very good #2 cornerback with the Jets before last year, but last year was the best of his career, even better than his San Diego days, when he was also a #1 cornerback. If he can continue close to this level of play, it will allow the Jets to continue to play strong defense.

Opposite him, the Jets will start 1^st round rookie Dee Milliner, who the Jets drafted to replenish cornerback depth. He’ll start over Kyle Wilson, who played pretty well when thrust into the starting lineup last season, allowing 46 catches on 84 attempts for 558 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 3 passes and committing 5 penalties. He graded out about average. A former 1^st round pick in his own right (2010), Wilson will be moving to his natural spot on the slot this season. As a result, they’re even deeper at cornerback than they were last season. Ellis Lankster struggled mightily as the #3 cornerback last season. Now he probably won’t be much of a factor.

Safety is definitely a weakness though. The Jets lost both starters, Yeremiah Bell and LaRon Landry, this off-season and both played alright last season. Dawan Landry was signed to play in one spot, but the veteran safety is clearly on the decline, going into his age 31 season, grading out below average in each of the last two seasons. There’s a reason why he was cut by the Jaguars and forced to sign a cheap one year deal with the Jets. The 6-1 220 pounder especially struggles in coverage. Either Antonio Allen or Josh Bush will man the other safety spot. They were 7^th and 6^th round picks respectively in 2012 and played 0 and 17 snaps respectively as rookies.

Grade: B+

Head Coach

A quarter of NFL Head Coaches were fired last off-season so there are unlikely to be a lot of firings this season and this off-season. However, Rex Ryan almost definitely seems like one of them. It’s not necessarily that he’s a terrible coach, but that’s how the NFL works. Ryan is going into his 5^th year with the Jets and only 9 Head Coaches have been with their current team longer and all 9 have multiple division titles (6 have rings and 7 coached playoff teams last season). Being a 5+ year tenured Head Coach is a serious honor in today’s NFL. Along with fellow 2009 hire Jim Schwartz of the Detroit Lions, Ryan is definitely on the hot set. It’s time to deliver or be let go for both and I like Schwartz’ chances of delivering a lot more. There’s a good chance Ryan is fired mid-season and/or his team quits on him.

Grade: C

Overall

The Jets might not be worse than they were last season, but I don’t expect them to be better either. The talent they have will once again be masked by arguably the worst quarterback situation in the NFL and they could quit on their Head Coach mid-season and, as a result, win even fewer games than they otherwise would. They should be among the worst teams in the NFL.

I think they’re the worst team in their division and even with 4 games against the less than stellar Dolphins and Bills, they’ll probably just win 1 divisional game. Outside of the division, they host Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Oakland, Cleveland. Oakland and Cleveland should be wins, but the rest will be tough. They could hang with Tampa Bay or perhaps win a trap game against New Orleans or Pittsburgh (two poor road teams), so I’ll give them an optimistic 3 wins in that bunch. However, they also go to Atlanta, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Carolina, and Tennessee. Only Tennessee is winnable and I’ll switch gears and be pessimistic here for fairness and give them no wins in that bunch, putting them at 4-12.

Projection: 4-12 4^th in AFC East

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Buffalo Bills 2013 NFL Season Preview

August 12, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Bills, Uncategorized

Introduction

The Bills had the worst fumble luck in the NFL last season, recovering just 30.6% of fumbles that hit the ground last season, which led to a -8 fumble margin and subsequently a -13 turnover margin. That should improve in 2013. A team’s ability to recover fumbles once they hit the ground is largely more dependent on luck and fumble type than actual ability and for this reason it averages out over time. For example, there have been 6 teams who have recovered 35% or fewer of their fumbles since 2003. The following season, they recovered on average 53.7% of their fumbles. If the Bills are at 50%, it will definitely help stabilize the turnover margin.

Quarterback

However, that doesn’t necessarily mean a large improvement in wins is in store for the Bills, largely because of their quarterback situation. In a historically bad quarterback class, the Bills were the only team who felt there was a quarterback worth taking in the first round, trading down with the Rams and taking EJ Manuel from Florida State 16^th overall. They definitely didn’t hide their intention to add a young quarterback, talking at length about their desire to do so starting pretty much early last season, and when they cut big money failure Ryan Fitzpatrick this off-season, it left a huge hole at quarterback.

They did, however, surprise everyone with the quarterback they decided to take. Reports in the days before the draft had the Bills interested in everyone from Geno Smith to Ryan Nassib to Matt Barkley in the first round, but it proved to just be very good smokescreening by the Bills, who had their eyes on Manuel all along.

It’s definitely a risk. Manuel is rawer than even guys like Jake Locker, Ryan Tannehill, and Cam Newton who have been drafted in the first round of major projects in recent years. It’s very possible that the Bills were one of only a few teams who felt he was, or any quarterback for that matter, was worth a 1^st round pick. Fortunately, all of his problems seem coachable and he has plenty of upside, but he’s unlikely to make a positive impact as a rookie.

Kevin Kolb is the veteran option and would be their best bet if their goal is to win as many games as possible this season, but the Bills seem ready to hand the job to Manuel and have him take his lumps, rather than desperately trying for their first 8-8+ season in 9 years. There is much debate about whether the trial by fire/learn by doing approach is better for a young quarterback than having him wait until he’s ready and not form bad habits, so we’ll see how this approach works. In my opinion, it depends on the quarterback.

Kolb, meanwhile, is on his 3^rd stop in his NFL career in Buffalo, after he flamed out as a big money quarterback in Arizona. The 2007 2^nd round pick has certainly flashed at times, impressing in limited action with Philadelphia as backup to Michael Vick and Donovan McNabb, to the extent where the Cardinals traded a starting cornerback and a 2^nd round pick to Philadelphia for Kolb, who they gave a 63 million dollar contract over 6 years. He looked on his way to being the quarterback he was supposed to be in 2012, completing 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in 6 starts, going 4-2, but injuries cut his season short once again.

That’s always been the issue for him. It’s why he lost the starting job in Philadelphia to Vick and it’s why the Cardinals cut him this off-season. Now he’s going into his age 29 season, with just 755 career pass attempts to his name in 34 games and a 28 to 25 touchdown to interception rate. He was rightfully forced to sign a cheaper, short term deal with the Bills and compete for the starting job and another injury put him behind EJ Manuel early, as he comically missed a week of practice after slipping on a wet bath mat. He’ll probably remain behind Manuel all season.

Grade: C

Running Back

Part of why the Bills were able to score even a respectable 21.5 points per game, 21^st in the NFL, last season was because of their running game. Their running game should once again be a great aid to the passing game and rookie quarterback EJ Manuel this season, likely even more so this season as they plan to be very run heavy. New Head Coach Doug Marrone was one of the run heaviest coaches in College Football, running more than they passed in all 4 of his seasons as Syracuse’s Head Coach, and they want to make life as easy as possible for Manuel.

CJ Spiller will be the workhorse, playing every down including on the goal line, and the Buffalo website predicted he could see 30 touches per game. That would be an absurd 480 touches over the course of the season. That won’t happen, as is often the case with lofty touch expectations for backs because some games just force you to throw out your game plan and pass more than you’d like.

However, Marrone said he wants to feed Spiller the ball “until he throws up” and he runs a very up tempo fast paced offense so he’ll definitely get 30 touches in some games. 360 touches (300 carries and 60 catches) over the season wouldn’t be absurd, assuming, as always is the caveat with running backs, he stays healthy. The 5-11 200 pound Spiller has never handled that kind of work load at any level, but he’s never had a serious injury either, missing just 2 games in 3 seasons, and he’s still young (age 26 season) and has very little tread on his tires.

Spiller certainly has plenty of talent. He’s a terrific pass catcher, in addition to what he does as a runner, with 21.5% of his career touches coming on catches. He’s averaged 5.4 yards per carry in his career, including a ridiculous 6.0 yards per carry last season. He was ProFootballFocus’ #2 ranked running back both in run grade and overall grade behind Adrian Peterson last season and he also was their #3 back in pass catching grade. He averaged 3.6 yards after contact per carry, also 2^nd behind Peterson, and broke 53 tackles on 207 carries, the highest rate in the NFL among players with as many carries as him. He was 6^th in the NFL with 1703 yards from scrimmage despite just 250 touches. He probably won’t maintain his rates because that’s near impossible for anyone to maintain, especially getting as many touches as Spiller is expected to, but all signs are pointing to the 9^th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft being one of the NFL leaders in all-purpose yardage and having a Pro-Bowl breakout year.

Fred Jackson is a talented back as well, but he’ll be a pure backup this season. That’s good for him as he heads into his age 32 season. He doesn’t have as much tread on his tires as most 32-year-old backs, not making his NFL debut until his age 26 season and touching the ball just 1141 times over the last 6 seasons, but he still seems to be breaking down. He’s missed 12 games in the last 2 seasons combined and managed just 3.8 yards per carry in 2012. He’ll see still some work as the #2 back in a run heavy offense, but he’s unlikely to post big numbers unless Spiller gets hurt. He did average 5.5 yards per carry in 2011 before getting hurt though and has averaged 4.5 yards per carry for his career, so he is talented.

Grade: A

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

In addition to having a rookie quarterback, the Bills also have a very young receiving corps. 3 of their top 4 wide receivers were drafted in either 2012 or 2013. 2^nd round rookie Robert Woods will compete with 2012 3^rd round pick TJ Graham for the starting job and the trio will all see the field in 3-wide receiver sets. 3^rd round rookie Marquise Goodwin will probably be the #4 receiver and see a very small role on offense as a rookie, though the blazing fast track star could be a weapon on special teams as a returner. There’s definitely some promise with this group, but it’s very, very tough to rely on young receivers.

Graham was awful as a rookie last season, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ absolute worst rated wide receiver, by a fairly large margin. He caught just 31 passes for 322 yards and a touchdown on 58 attempts and 428 pass snaps. He ranked dead last in the NFL among eligible wide receivers who didn’t play for the Cardinals in QB rating when thrown to last season, as Bills quarterbacks had a 54.0 QB rating when throwing to him. He also dropped 7 passes to 31 catches, the 2^nd worst rate in the NFL among eligible wide receivers and averaged just 0.77 yards per route run, worst in the NFL among eligible wide receivers who didn’t play for the Cardinals.

Steve Johnson is the veteran of the group. He broke out in his 3^rd year in the league in 2010, which is usually when receivers break out, and has posted 1000-yard seasons in each of the last 3 seasons. He’s been very consistent with 82/1073/10, 76/1004/7, and 79/1046/6 seasons and hasn’t missed a game despite playing through various ailments, but he could see his numbers dip this season. He has a raw rookie quarterback and the Bills will run more. He’s largely a volume receiver, averaging 138 targets per season, but could see that drop down to 120 this season.

Tight end Scott Chandler is the other veteran. Chandler is a big 6-7 263 pounder who blocks well and is a threat around the goal line, with 12 of his 81 catches over the past 2 seasons going for a touchdown. He’s otherwise a marginal player who doesn’t get much separation downfield. He’s totaled 81 catches for 960 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns over the last 2 seasons. He’s also coming off of a torn ACL suffered last December so he might not be 100%, especially early in the season.

Lee Smith is the #2 tight end. He didn’t play much last season because Chan Gailey didn’t like using 2-tight end sets, but he should see more action this season. He played 294 snaps as almost solely a blocker, running just 17 routes. That’s all the 6-6 269 pounder really is. Overall, the Bills’ receiving corps are underwhelming at best. Between that and a raw rookie quarterback, it’s going to be hard for them to move the ball through the air.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

The Bills once had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, but it’s on the decline. In 2011, they graded out 1st on ProFootballFocus in pass protection and 15th in run blocking, but last year, they were 4th and 21st respectively and they could be even worse this season. A big part of the reason why is the loss of left guard Andy Levitre, who signed with the Titans this off-season on a deal worth 46.8 million over 6 years. That’s a lot of money for a guard and he’s worth what they paid him. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 9th ranked guard in 2012 and 6th ranked in 2011.

David Snow will get the 1^st crack at replacing him, but the 2012 undrafted free agent played just 139 snaps as a rookie, primarily at center, his natural position, and the Bills don’t seem too sure about him. Colin Brown and Doug Legursky are the other options. Brown has played just 155 snaps in his career, while Legursky has struggled mightily whenever he’s been counted on to start as a utility interior offensive lineman with the Steelers. Things are so desperate at the position that the Bills have experimented moving left tackle Cordy Glenn to left guard, but that wouldn’t make any sense because the 2012 2^nd round pick played well at the more important left tackle position last season. This scenario would have Thomas Welch and his 93 career snaps protecting EJ Manuel’s blindside.

The other reason their offensive line has declined since 2011 is that center Eric Wood and right tackle Erik Pears have failed to live up to their 2011 levels of play. Wood was ProFootballFocus’ 8^th ranked center in 2011, despite missing half the season with injury, but he’s graded out below average in each of his other seasons since being drafted in 2009. The former 1^st round pick has plenty of talent, but has never been able to put it together and emerge as one of the top centers in the NFL. The Bills rightfully seem content to let him play out his contract year in 2013 before making a decision on him.

Pears, meanwhile, graded out above average in his first chance as a starter in 2011, but graded out below average in 2012 and also missed 9 games with injury. He’ll compete with Chris Hairston for the starting job. Hairston graded out below average on the left side making a few starts in 2011, but seemed more comfortable at right tackle in Pears’ absence last season. He probably deserves the job, as inconsistent as he’s been, but he’s still missing valuable practice time with lingering foot/ankle injuries from last season. Finishing off the offensive line is right guard Kraig Urbik, who has graded out above average in each of the last 2 seasons as a starter and he should remain an above average starter this year. It’s still a decent offensive line, but it’s not what it once was.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

The Bills had high hopes defensively last season, after signing Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to big contracts, and using the 10^th overall pick on Stephon Gilmore. However, they allowed 27.2 points per game, 26^th in the NFL and a massive disappointment. Defensive Coordinator Dave Wannstedt rightfully took much of the blame and was let go this off-season, replaced with former Jets Defensive Coordinator Mike Pettine, who will be implementing a new hybrid defensive scheme.

That’s reason for optimism, as is the way they finished last season defensively. After their week 8 bye, they allowed just 23.1 points per game, as opposed to 32.4 points per game before the bye. Even that 23.1 points per game figure is skewed by two very poor defensive performances against two of the better offenses in the NFL (New England and Seattle). Excluding those two games, they didn’t allow more than 24 points after the bye and they were generally a solid defense.

What was the difference? Well, Mario Williams played much more like himself after getting his wrist problem corrected during the bye and rookie cornerback Stephon Gilmore really improved as the season went on, stepping up as a #1 cornerback ahead of schedule. I’ll get to Gilmore later, but Williams had 8 sacks, 2 hits, and 25 hurries in the final 9 games of the season, after just 3 sacks, 5 hits, and 13 hurries in the first 7. He was also noticeably better against the run.

After an off-season to get healthy, Williams has a very good chance of once again being one of the top edge rushers in the NFL. He’s only going into his age 28 season and before missing most of the 2011 season with a torn pectoral, he graded out as a top-15 4-3 defensive end in each season from 2008-2010. He was on his way towards a similar season in 2011 before the injury and all in all finished 17^th in 2012. There’s a reason the Bills gave him a 6 year, 96 million dollar contract and he still has a chance to make good on that.

Williams will play both 4-3 defensive end and 3-4 outside linebacker in Pettine’s hybrid scheme and he has experience in both schemes. He could also see some action at 5-technique end in a 3-4 at times because of his size at 285 pounds. He’s plenty versatile and should have plenty of opportunities to get after the quarterback. Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus will both play every down on the defensive line, regardless of the scheme. Both are big 300+ pounders who move very well for their size.

Dareus was the 3^rd overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft and has been ProFootballFocus’ #12 ranked defensive tackle in each of the last 2 seasons. The ridiculously athletic d-lineman is still only 24 this season and probably hasn’t played his best football. Williams, meanwhile, was ProFootballFocus’ #1 ranked defensive tackle in 2010 and #3 ranked defensive tackle in 2012, with an injury plagued season in the middle. That injury is far behind him and he should continue being one of the best interior defensive linemen in the NFL.

Along with Dareus and Williams, one of either Alex Carrington or Alan Branch will play on the line when the Bills go to 3-4 packages. Carrington was excellent as a situational interior pass rusher last season with 2 sacks, 1 hit, and 15 hurries on 189 pass rush snaps last season, a 9.5% pass rush rate. He could also play some defensive end in 4-3 sets. He’d play one 5-technique spot with either Dareus or Williams manning the nose. Branch, meanwhile, will play the nose in some situations with Dareus and Williams outside. The 6-5 331 pound Branch is just a two-down run stuffer, but he can be a very good one, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ #3 run stuffing defensive tackle in 2011.

As I mentioned, Mario Williams will also play some on the defensive line in 3-4 sets. In 4-3 sets, Kyle Williams and Dareus will play inside with Mario Williams outside and either Carrington or Jerry Hughes as the other defensive end depending on the situation. That’s the one hole in an otherwise promising Bills front line. They don’t have another edge rusher opposite Mario Williams.

This isn’t a new problem. Mark Anderson was awful in his first year of a 4-year, 20 million dollar contract last year. He played just 256 snaps before going down for the year with injury, so he wasn’t eligible, but if he had been eligible he would have graded out 5^th worst among 4-3 defensive ends, despite his limited playing time. Kyle Moore took over for him, but he wasn’t much better, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 49^th ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 62 eligible last season.

Moore is no longer with the team and Anderson was cut. The Bills traded for Jerry Hughes from the Colts to be a situational edge rusher, but the bust of a 2010 1^st round pick has played just 873 snaps in 3 seasons and graded out below average in all 3 seasons. He did show some promise as a pass rusher last season, grading out above average with 4 sacks, 6 hits, and 17 hurries on 246 pass rush snaps, a 11.0% pass rush rate, but he was awful in other aspects of the game and committed 7 penalties. He does have experience in both schemes though.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

Nigel Bradham and Kiko Alonso are probably the Bills’ two every down linebackers, though Bryan Scott could continue serving a coverage specialist role. The converted safety is great in coverage, but struggles mightily against the run, as you’d expect from a 6-1 219 pounder. Bradham and Alonso will definitely start though. Alonso is a 2^nd round rookie, while Bradham was a 4^th round pick in 2012. He graded out about average on 402 snaps as a rookie. There’s promise here, but neither one is proven at all.

Manny Lawson comes over from Cincinnati and will be a two-down base package linebacker, playing outside both in 3-4 and 4-3 sets. He has experience in both schemes and though he’s not much of a pass rusher at all, as the 49ers learned early in his career, but he’s an alright run stuffer. In 3-4 sets, he’ll line up outside with Mario Williams or maybe Jerry Hughes, though Hughes will probably rotate with Lawson primarily.

Grade: C+

Secondary

I mentioned I’d get back to Stephon Gilmore. When Stephon Gilmore declared for the NFL draft as a junior out of South Carolina, he certainly had the profile of a top draft pick. After committing as a 4-star recruit and the #2 recruit from the state of South Carolina, Gilmore was a starter at the University of South Carolina from the word go as a true freshman and wound up starting all 39 possible games in 3 years in the always tough SEC. His efforts as a freshman earned him Freshman All-American honors. As a sophomore, he was named a 3rd team All-American. He had a down junior year by his standard, but at The Combine, Gilmore measured in at 6-0 3/8 with 31 inch arms and ran a 4.40 40, which sent his stock soaring once again.

The Bills obviously liked what they saw as they drafted him 10th overall in 2012 and made him a rookie starter. They had huge hopes for him, but he didn’t get off to the best start. In his first 5 NFL games, he allowed 19 completions on 31 attempts for 327 yards and 3 touchdowns. This was completely understandable as even for a talented prospect such as Gilmore, the transition to the NFL can be a tough one, especially for a cornerback and especially for a cornerback frequently asked to cover opponent’s #1 receivers from day one.

However, in week 6, Gilmore hit his stride and played very well from there on out. He allowed 30 completions on 56 attempts for 409 yards. He didn’t allow a touchdown the rest of the way and intercepted his only pass of the season week 13. His only issue was penalties, as he was penalized 11 times in his final 11 games, but as he matures, that issue should correct itself. Heading into his 2nd year in the league, Gilmore, who doesn’t turn 23 until September, looks poised for a big year. He’s one of the reasons to expect an improved Bills defense.

He’ll start opposite Leodis McKelvin, another former 1^st round pick, from the 2008 class. McKelvin has largely been a bust, only once playing more than 514 snaps in a season and missing 16 games in the last 5 seasons, but he’s graded out above average in each of the last 3 seasons so he could be alright, as long as he can stay in the lineup. His biggest impact last season was on special teams, where he returned 23 punts for 431 yards and 2 touchdowns, en route to making the All-Pro team as a punt returner. However, with the 4 year contract worth 20 million dollars the Bills peculiarly gave him this off-season, the new coaching staff clearly sees him as a starter at cornerback.

Justin Rogers will continue manning the slot even though he was horrible in that role last season, his first season since serious action since being drafted in 7^th round in 2011. Despite being just a part-time player, he was still ProFootballFocus’ 105^th ranked cornerback out of 113 eligible, 110^th in coverage grade. He allowed 41 catches on 62 attempts for 477 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting just 4 passes and committing 2 penalties. He could be pushed by 2012 4^th round pick Ron Brooks.

Aaron Williams was one of the starters at cornerback last season, but the new regime likes him at safety more, with McKelvin at cornerback. McKelvin will probably be an upgrade, because Williams was horrible in his first 2 years in the league at cornerback. The stiff hipped tweener could be better at safety, where some teams liked him better coming out of Texas in 2011, before the Bills took him in the 2^nd round and made him a cornerback. He’ll have to beat out Da’Norris Searcy, who has graded out above average on 511 snaps as a backup since the Bills took him the 4^th round pick in 2011. Whoever wins that job will be replacing George Wilson, a veteran who surprisingly graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 8^th ranked safety last season. I don’t think either Williams or Searcy can be that good.

Jairus Byrd will be the other safety once again, at least he will once the Bills’ franchise player stops holding out. The 2009 2^nd round pick has graded out above average in all 4 seasons as a starter and has been a top-3 safety in each of the last 2 seasons on ProFootballFocus, the only player in the NFL who can say so. Behind Eric Weddle, he’s probably the best safety in the NFL and I think he’s at least the best deep safety in the NFL. Hopefully for the Bills’ sake, he doesn’t hold out into the regular season or get out of shape from not practicing, especially with a new coaching staff coming in. The latter is more likely. The Bills really should have locked him up this off-season. He deserves the Dashon Goldson money he wants.

Grade: B

Head Coach

It’s very tough to grade first time Head Coaches, but Doug Marrone was certainly out of left field as far as Head Coach hires go. He was just 35-35 in 4 years as the Syracuse Head Coach, going 11-17 in the Big East, so he wasn’t a big time college Head Coach. He has an NFL background, serving as the Saints’ Offensive Coordinator under Sean Payton with Drew Brees from 2006-2008 and for what it’s worth Payton thinks very highly of him, but I’m skeptical at best about this hire.

Grade: C+

Overall

The Bills should have a more even turnover margin and play better defense in 2013 and of course they’ll be able to run the ball, but this is still a passing league and I’m very concerned about their ability to move the ball through the air. If I had to go either way, I’d say they’re more likely to go over 6 wins than under, but they should be right in that 5-7 win range once again. They’ll play spoiler from time to time, but the best they can hope for this season is that EJ Manuel shows promise for the future.

I think they’ll either win two or three divisional games. They’re better than the Jets, but not as good as New England or Miami, though they’re closer to Miami than the Jets. They also host Carolina, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Atlanta, which is a tough bunch, but they could win 2 of those games. They also go to Cleveland, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay, which is an easier group. There could be 2 wins in there as well. Overall, I have them at 6-10 again.

Projection: 6-10 3^rd in AFC East

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Buffalo Bills 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

August 12, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Bills, Uncategorized

Because of the uncertainty of their quarterback situation, I will not project either of their quarterbacks. Neither should be drafted.

QB EJ Manuel (Buffalo)

8/25/13: EJ Manuel hasn’t officially been named the starting quarterback of the Bills, but he’s been by far their best quarterback this pre-season and he may win it by default regardless because of Kevin Kolb’s potentially career threatening concussion. The Bills signed veteran Matt Leinart, but he’s only insurance in case Manuel misses time after minor knee surgery. His status is in doubt for the very early part of the season, but when he does play, he could post QB2 numbers because of his rushing ability. Ryan Tannehill’s rookie numbers should serve as a template for Manuel’s He’ll be the starter by the time bye weeks roll around and he faces New Orleans’ pathetic defense week 8 so he could be a smart backup for a team with a starting quarterback with a bye week 8.

Projection: 3300 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (202 pts standard, 228 pts 6 pt leagues)

RB CJ Spiller (Buffalo)

New Head Coach Doug Marrone was one of the run heaviest coaches in College Football, running more than they passed in all 4 seasons as Syracuse’s Head Coach, and they want to make life as easy as possible for Manuel. CJ Spiller will be the workhorse, playing every down including on the goal line, and the Buffalo website predicted he could see 30 touches per game. That would be an absurd 480 touches over the course of the season. That won’t happen, as is often the case with lofty touch expectations for backs because some games just force you to throw out your game plan and pass more than you’d like.

However, Marrone said he wants to feed Spiller the ball “until he throws up” and he runs a very up tempo fast paced offense so he’ll definitely get 30 touches in some games. 360 touches (300 carries and 60 catches) over the season wouldn’t be absurd. Spiller certainly has plenty of talent. He’s averaged 5.4 yards per carry in his career, including a ridiculous 6.0 yards per carry last season. He was 6^th in the NFL with 1703 yards from scrimmage despite just 250 touches. He probably won’t maintain his rates because that’s near impossible for anyone to maintain, especially getting as many touches as Spiller is expected to, but all signs are pointing to the 9^th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft being one of the NFL leaders in all-purpose yardage and having a Pro-Bowl breakout year.

Projection: 290 carries for 1480 rushing yards and 10 total touchdowns 55 catches for 500 receiving yards (258 pts standard, 313 pts PPR)

RB Fred Jackson (Buffalo)

Fred Jackson is a talented back as well, but he’ll be a pure backup this season. That’s good for him as he heads into his age 32 season. He doesn’t have as much tread on his tires as most 32-year-old backs, not making his NFL debut until his age 26 season and touching the ball just 1141 times over the last 6 seasons, but he still seems to be breaking downs. He’s missed 12 games in the last 2 seasons combined and managed just 3.8 yards per carry in 2012. He’ll see still some work as the #2 back in a run heavy offense, but he’s unlikely to post big numbers unless Spiller gets hurt. He did average 5.5 yards per carry in 2011 before getting hurt though and has averaged 4.5 yards per carry for his career, so he is talented. He’s a handcuff for Spiller owners and a solid late round choice.

Projection: 130 carries for 570 receiving yards 4 total touchdowns 23 catches for 170 receiving yards (98 pts standard, 121 pts PPR)

WR Steve Johnson (Buffalo)

Johnson has been very consistent with 82/1073/10, 76/1004/7, and 79/1046/6 seasons and hasn’t missed a game despite playing through various ailments, but he could see his numbers dip this season. He has a raw rookie quarterback and the Bills will run more. He’s largely a volume receiver, averaging 138 targets per season, but could see that drop down to 120 this season.

Projection: 63 catches for 900 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (126 pts standard, 189 pts PPR)

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Miami Dolphins 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

August 10, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Dolphins, Uncategorized

QB Ryan Tannehill (Miami)

8/18/13: Tannehill gets a small stock down with Dustin Keller out for the season.

Ryan Tannehill gets two new weapons to work with in Mike Wallace and Dustin Keller. Wallace may be overrated, but he’ll give them an upgrade on the outside, as Keller will at tight end. They have serious issues at left tackle, which could cancel some of that out, but I do expect Tannehill to improve on last year’s numbers, even if only because he has another year of experience and because the Dolphins will be passing more often. He’s just a QB2, but few QB2s have more upside.

Projection: 3600 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 200 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (220 pts standard, 258 pts 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Lamar Miller (Miami)

Daniel Thomas has shown very little in his two years as a pro, rushing for 906 yards on 256 carries (just 3.5 YPC) and the coaching staff that drafted him is gone. Miller is the clear starter at this point in the off-season and that does not figure to change. He’s a solid bet for 1000 yards as the new feature back in Miami and should have right around the 227 carries Reggie Bush had last season.

Projection: 230 carries for 1010 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 25 catches for 180 receiving yards (161 pts standard, 186 pts PPR)

WR Mike Wallace (Miami)

Wallace held out long into Training Camp last off-season, putting himself above the team and was not the same all season. Wallace was ProFootballFocus’ 91st ranked wide receiver out of 105 eligible. He caught just 55.2% of the passes thrown his way and averaged just 13.1 yards per catch, catching 64 passes for 838 yards and 8 touchdowns. Wallace has demonstrated for the past year or so that he’d rather get paid above anything, holding out at his team’s expense and then chasing the money and going to Miami so it was probably smart of the Steelers not to lock him up long term (not like they had the cap space, but still). He could easily coast now that he’s been paid and he has a downgrade at quarterback from Ben Roethlisberger. On top of that, the track record of receivers switching teams is dubious at best. Stay away and let him be someone else’s problem.

Projection: 60 catches for 850 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (121 pts standard, 181 pts PPR)

WR Brian Hartline (Miami)

8/18/13: Hartline could see a few more underneath targets with Keller out for the year. He’s also shown much better chemistry with Tannehill than Mike Wallace. He’s more comfortable in the system and with a poor offensive line, Tannehill is going to have to settle for shorter throws more than he’d like.

Hartline caught 74 passes for 1083 yards in the 2009 4^th round pick’s breakout 4^th season, but he did benefit from being targeted on 118 throws, 23.4% of the Dolphins’ pass attempts. He also scored just once, compared to 3 interceptions when thrown to, and averaged just 3.2 yards after catch per catch and graded out 26^th on ProFootballFocus in pass catching grade among wide receivers. He also had close to a quarter of his production in one 253 yard game week 4 and caught 2 or fewer passes on 5 separate occasions. He’s a solid secondary receiver, but nothing more. He could still lead the team in receiving, with Wallace serving more as a downfield decoy. He does have greater familiarity with the quarterback and the playbook.

Projection: 68 catches for 900 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (120 pts standard, 188 pts PPR)

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Miami Dolphins 2013 NFL Season Preview

August 10, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Introduction

The Dolphins were hailed by the media as the winners of the off-season, after all of the millions they spent, but like previous “winners” of the off-season, they should disappoint. The Buccaneers were the “winner” of last off-season, after shelling out big money for Carl Nicks, Vincent Jackson, and Eric Wright, but managed just 7 wins. The “Dream Team” Eagles came before them and they won just 8 games. Dan Snyder and the free spending Redskins came many a time before them, but largely produced no results.

The well run teams who sustain consistent success, the Packers, Patriots, Giants, 49ers, Ravens, Steelers, Falcons, Saints, etc. of the world, almost never make a big move on the first day of free agency. They instead focus on strong drafting, developing and re-signing their own guys, and letting the market come to them and filling holes with solid starters on cheaper deals on later days in free agency. They never make panic signings early in free agency.

You can say it’s because they are already good or because they don’t have a lot of cap space, but none of those teams was built through big free agency signings. No consistently good team ever was. The Ravens’ 2013 off-season is the perfect of example of this. They drafted well, adding starters in the first two rounds of the draft, and got solid starters on cheaper contracts in Elvis Dumervil, Chris Canty, Michael Huff, and Daryl Smith after the dust cleared in free agency.

I don’t know how much better of a team the Dolphins are as a result of this off-season. Mike Wallace was the big signing, signing this off-season’s biggest contract, getting 60 million over 5 years from the Dolphins. He’ll undoubtedly be an upgrade on the outside opposite Brian Hartline, but he’s overrated and not worth what he was paid. In 2010 and 2011, Wallace was one of the best receivers in the league, catching a combined 132 passes for 2450 yards and 18 touchdowns. However, Wallace held out long into Training Camp last off-season, putting himself above the team and was not the same all season.

Wallace was ProFootballFocus’ 91st ranked wide receiver out of 105 eligible. He caught just 55.2% of the passes thrown his way and averaged just 13.1 yards per catch. Wallace has demonstrated for the past year or so that he’d rather get paid above anything, holding out at his team’s expense and then chasing the money and going to Miami so it was probably smart of the Steelers not to lock him up long term (not like they had the cap space, but still). He could easily coast now that he’s been paid. On top of that, the track record of receivers switching teams is dubious at best. Vincent Jackson last season was an exception, not the rule. I doubt he lasts 3 years of his contract with the team, before being cut or forced to restructure.

He wasn’t the only signing in the receiving corps, which was a big need of their off-season. I’ll give them credit for addressing their biggest need. They also signed Dustin Keller to a one-year prove it deal coming off a down season due to injury. That was one of their smart moves. He caught just 28 passes for 317 yards and 2 touchdowns last season, but he missed 8 games and was limited in others with injury. The previous season, the former 1^st round pick caught 65 passes for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns despite being on the pitiful Jets’ passing offense.

Along with Keller and Wallace, the Dolphins also added Brandon Gibson, which was not such a smart move. Gibson isn’t a bad player, but he’s a marginal talent and not worth a 3 year, 10 million dollar deal and he’ll also be converting to the slot, which he hasn’t played a lot in his career. He’s played just 175 slot snaps in his career and he displaced Davone Bess, a cheaper and more proven slot receiver who caught 321 passes in that role over the past 5 seasons. He was sent to Cleveland for a late round pick. They essentially overpaid to downgrade the slot receiver position.

On the defensive side of the ball, the two big signings they made were linebackers Dannell Ellerbe and Philip Wheeler. Ellerbe displaced Karlos Dansby at middle linebacker, while Wheeler displaced Kevin Burnett on the outside. Ironically, Burnett graded out better at 4-3 outside linebacker than Wheeler did last season on ProFootballFocus, grading out 4^th, while Wheeler ranked 6^th. The same is true with Dansby and Ellerbe. Dansby ranked 13^th, while Ellerbe ranked 14^th.

On top of that, they are both much less proven and the Dolphins are essentially paying for one year wonders. Prior to last season, Ellerbe had played 917 career snaps in 3 seasons and graded out below average in all 3 seasons. Wheeler, meanwhile, had topped out at 537 snaps in a season in 3 years as a part-time base package linebacker in Indianapolis, prior to last year’s breakout year. Sure, both Wheeler and Ellerbe are younger than the guy they’re replacing, but they’re paying a ton of money for guys who are both best case scenario going to match their predecessor’s performance. They may prove to be long-term upgrades, but don’t expect better linebacker play from them this season. Considering they shelled out 26 million for Wheeler and 35 million for Ellerbe on 5 year deals, that’s not a good move.

On top of that, they had serious losses this off-season, losing running back Reggie Bush, cornerback Sean Smith, and most importantly left tackle Jake Long. They’ll attempt to replace Bush with 2012 4^th round pick Lamar Miller and Bush may prove to be the easiest to replace. Miller did just have 51 carries as a rookie, but he certainly has the natural talent to best case scenario replace Bush’s abilities as a runner, but he’s unlikely to replace Bush in the passing game, where he caught 78 passes over the last 2 seasons. Shelling out big money for an aging, injury prone back like Bush wouldn’t have been a smart move, but they could still miss him.

Sean Smith, meanwhile, was their #1 cornerback last season, grading out slightly above average in coverage, allowing 62 catches on 113 attempts for 732 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 8 passes and committing 7 penalties. The Dolphins signed Brent Grimes to a one-year prove it deal this off-season to replace him and it wasn’t a bad move at all. Grimes was ProFootballFocus’ #3 ranked cornerback in 2011, which led to him being franchise tagged by the Falcons in the following off-season, so the upside is there. However, he’s now 30 years old and he has played just 13 games in the last 2 seasons combined thanks to injury, most notable a torn Achilles that cost him most of 2012. His best days may be behind him and the fact that the Falcons didn’t seem too interested in keeping him concerns me.

Jake Long, meanwhile, should be the toughest to replace. Long is a household name because he was the 1st overall pick of the Dolphins in 2008 and because he deservingly made the Pro-Bowl in each of his first 4 seasons in the league. However, after ranking 10th, 2nd, and 2nd on ProFootballFocus in 2008, 2009, and 2010 respectively, injuries helped drop him to 21st in 2011 and all the way down to right around league average in 2012.

Still, even league average should be significantly better than what they get from new left tackle Jonathan Martin, a 2^nd round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. Martin struggled mightily as a rookie, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 5^th worst ranked offensive tackle last season, despite getting to play 11 of his starts on the easier right side. In 5 starts at left tackle to end the season, he was miserable, allowing 2 sacks, 2 hits, and 17 hurries in just those 5 starts alone. He could be better in his 2^nd year in the league, but his collegiate tape features plenty of him struggling to pass protect against speed rushers. Just pop in the 2011 USC/Stanford tape to watch Nick Perry turn him into a roller-skater for 4 straight quarters plus 3 overtimes. Reports out of Training Camp haven’t been good either.

The Dolphins also don’t seem too bullish on him as a blindside protector, trying before draft day to facilitate a trade for Branden Albert, so he could play left tackle and Martin could stay at right tackle. The Dolphins instead had to “settle” for Tyson Clabo, who was, to their credit, a smart, cheap one year signing. He’s been a top-20 offensive tackle on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 5 seasons and even going into his age 32 season, he should still be a very strong right tackle for them. However, it leaves Martin on the more important blindside, especially bad since the Dolphins have a young quarterback under center to develop. That should counteract much of the boost Tannehill will get from an improved receiving corps.

Quarterback

And with that, we get to the most important player to the Dolphins’ playoff chances this season. Their defense was already 7^th in the NFL, allowing 19.8 points per game last season, and they’re unlikely to be better. The unit that needs to improve is their offense, which averaged just 18.0 points per game last season, 27^th in the NFL. They’ve improved their supporting cast, but they still have a lot of problems around the quarterback and Tannehill will need to significantly improve his level of play if this team is going to make good on their playoff expectations. As a rookie, he completed just 58.3% of his passes for an average of 6.8 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions.

He definitely flashed at times and ProFootballFocus thought he was much better than his raw numbers, as they ranked him 13^th among quarterbacks throwing the ball on tape. He also ranked 16^th in their adjusted QB rating, which takes into account drops, throw aways, hit as thrown, spikes, and yards in the air. There’s definitely upside here, but he was an incredibly raw quarterback coming out of Texas A&M and I don’t see him being significantly better this season, at least not enough to lead the team into the post-season.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

I’ve already mentioned the tackles Martin and Clabo. On the interior of the offensive line, things aren’t great either. They have a 4 way competition for the 2 guard spots. John Jerry and Richie Incognito are the incumbents, but neither fit the zone blocking scheme the Dolphins coaching staff is trying to transition them to. Jerry graded out below average last season, as he was throughout his earlier career as a reserve, while Incognito once again graded out above average.

They’ll face competition from 3^rd round rookie Dallas Thomas and free agent acquisition Lance Louis, both of whom are better fits for a zone blocking scheme. However, it’s very tough to count on 3^rd round rookies as starters and Louis has been a below average player throughout his career with the Bears and he’s also coming off of a torn ACL, suffered last November. Either one of them winning the starting job wouldn’t be a good thing, but that might be the case considering the schematic direction the Dolphins are attempting to go on the offensive line. Incognito could be a final cut, as the Dolphins could save 4.3 million against the cap and 4 million in pure cash by cutting him, as he goes into his age 30 season.

Along with Clabo, center Mike Pouncey is the saving grace of this offensive line. Best known as Maurkice’s twin brother, the 2011 1^st round pick improved off of a nondescript rookie year by grading out better than Maurkice ever has in 2012, as he ranked 8^th at his position in ProFootballFocus. Clearly a natural talent as he was the highest drafted interior offensive lineman in roughly 15 years when the Dolphins took him 15^th overall, Pouncey could continue to improve in 2013 and emerge as one of the better centers in the NFL. Unfortunately, it’s overall a weak offensive line, especially at the all-important blindside position. They ranked 24^th in pass blocking and 23^rd in run blocking last season and could be even worse this season.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

As I mentioned, Lamar Miller will take over as the starting running back this season and I do think there’s some serious breakout potential here so the Dolphins could continue to have a solid running game. When the Miami Dolphins moved up to take Lamar Miller in the 4th round of the 2012 NFL Draft, many didn’t understand the move. The receiver needy Dolphins had yet to take a receiver and running back wasn’t an immediate need and didn’t seem worth moving up to fill. The Dolphins had Reggie Bush as the lead back and had just used a 2nd round pick the draft prior on Daniel Thomas, to add to their running back corps.

However, clearly the Dolphins saw the local kid Miller, out of the University of Miami, as too good to pass on, which makes sense. After all, he was widely projected as a 1st or 2nd round talent, who didn’t have a legitimate reason for falling, other than some maturity concerns and durability issues. The 5-11 212 pound back showed tremendous speed for his size, running a 4.40 40 at The Combine and had an excellent 2011 season, rushing for 1272 yards and 9 touchdowns on 227 carries as a mere redshirt sophomore.

Though he was only a one year starter, that’s seen as more of a positive than a negative for a running back because of how short their career spans are. A running back who can catch the attention of the scouts without accumulating a lot of tread on his tires in college tends to be a sought after commodity on draft day. Besides, Miller had just turned 21 and seemed to have a very bright future.

Reggie Bush was heading into the final year of his deal and Thomas struggled as a rookie and the new Dolphins coaching staff clearly didn’t see the plodding Thomas as a good fit for their offense. The smaller, quicker Miller was a much better fit and after not doing much as the 3rd string back as a rookie (250 yards and a touchdown on 51 carries), Miller now seems poised for a breakout year as Miami’s feature back in 2013, replacing the departed Reggie Bush.

Daniel Thomas has shown very little in his two years as a pro, rushing for 906 yards on 256 carries (just 3.5 YPC) and the coaching staff that drafted him is gone. Miller is the clear starter at this point in the off-season and that does not figure to change. Thomas’ best role moving forward would appear to be as a pure short yardage change of pace back and a goal line hammer. Miller could easily have a 1000+ yard plus breakout year for the Dolphins this season. Thomas, meanwhile, will compete with 5^th round rookie Mike Gillislee for the backup job and he could easily lose that competition.

Grade: B

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

I already mentioned why Wallace is overrated, but he’ll provide an upgrade on the outside opposite Brian Hartline in a receiving corps that saw just 3 receivers play more than 160 pass snaps last season (Hartline, Davone Bess, and tight end Anthony Fasano). He’ll also take some of the defense’s attention off of Hartline and allow Hartline to eat up underneath targets, which will be good for him, at least until defenses realize they no longer have to double team Wallace downfield (see DeSean Jackson circa 2011).

Also as I mentioned, the Dolphins paid 10 million over 3 years to downgrade the slot receiver position. Gibson will allow them to run more 3-wide receiver sets and they’ll probably pass more than the 504 times they did last season, but he won’t be a very efficient receiver and I don’t know if a more pass heavy offense is in their best interests. Gibson has graded out below average in 3 of his first 4 seasons in the league and, as I mentioned, is very inexperienced as a slot receiver.

Dustin Keller will probably be Tannehill’s primary over the middle target. He caught just 28 passes for 317 yards and 2 touchdowns last season, but he missed 8 games and was limited in others with injury. In 2011, caught 65 passes for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns, despite having Mark Sanchez as his quarterback and the games he missed last season were the first of his career. There’s serious bounce back potential here and he was well worth the 4.25 million over 1 year they gave him, especially considering Anthony Fasano, the marginal tight end he replaces, got 16 million over 4 years from the Chiefs. He does struggle with blocking though, unlike Fasano. Dion Sims, a massive 6-5 262 pound 4^th round rookie will be the blocking specialist.

Grade: B

Defensive Line

The Dolphins didn’t just make big splashes in free agency. They also made a big splash on draft day, packaging together their first and second round pick and sending them to Oakland to move up from 12 to 3 in the first round and select Oregon defensive end Dion Jordan. Jordan has a ton of upside, but is incredibly raw and probably would have gone in the teens most years. This draft class just had a serious lack of top level talent so taking a risk on a high upside kid like Jordan that early makes sense. However, he’s unlikely to have a serious impact this season. He won’t start and will be a passing down specialist as a rookie and he’s also an odd fit for a 4-3 because it doesn’t give him the opportunity to display his best skill, his sideline to sideline ability. He could have an impact, but not a huge one.

Olivier Vernon will get the start at defensive end instead of Jordan. He’ll play in Jared Odrick’s old spot. Odrick struggled mightily last season in his first season as a 4-3 defensive end. The 305 pounder set the edge well as a run stopper, but struggled mightily to get any sort of pass rush, with just 6 sacks, 10 hits, and 21 hurries on 566 pass rush snaps, a 6.5% pass rush rate. Overall, he had the 3^rd worst pass rush grade and 4^th worst overall grade among 4-3 defensive ends. Odrick was a 3-4 end in his first two years in the league and a defensive tackle in college and is clearly an unnatural fit at 4-3 end. He may be moving back inside this season, but one thing is clear: he will not continue starting outside. To this point in his career, Odrick looks like a bust as a 1^st round pick in 2010. He missed most of his rookie year with an injury, before playing sparingly in 2011 and struggling in 2012.

Vernon, meanwhile, was a 2012 3^rd round pick and saw a situational pass rush role as a rookie. He played 445 snaps, 102 on running plays and 343 on passing plays (he dropped into coverage on 54 of those snaps), but ironically graded out better as a run stopper. They’ll need him to continue doing that this season as a starter. He did struggle as a pass rusher, with just 3 sacks, 7 hits, and 11 hurries on 289 pass rush snaps, a 7.3% pass rush rate, but overall graded out about average. He has plenty of upside, but is really raw after declaring early in college and barely playing during his final season for a variety of reasons. The 6-2 261 pounder ran a 4.80 at the Combine and threw up 30 reps of 225.

Opposite him, Cameron Wake will start and he’s one of the best defensive players in the entire NFL. He was ProFootballFocus’ #1 ranked 4-3 defensive end last season and prior to that he was the #1 3-4 outside linebacker in 2011 and the #3 3-4 outside linebacker in 2010. In 2009, his first season over from Canada, he played just 167 snaps, but somehow would have graded out as the #3 3-4 defensive end at his position if he had been eligible. He had an absurd 7 sacks, 6 hits, and 20 hurries on 134 pass rush snaps, a 24.6% pass rush rate.

Last season, he had 17 sacks, 23 hits, and 46 hurries on 558 pass rush snaps, a 15.4% pass rush rate. His 12.9 pass rush productivity (sacks + .75 hits +.75 hurries * 100 / snaps played) was second in the NFL and first among players who played as many snaps as he did. He also graded out well against the run, making him one of just 3 4-3 defensive ends to rank in the top-10 at their position both against the run and rushing the passer. Overall, he was ProFootballFocus’ 4^th ranked defensive player at any position. The only issue is he’s going into his age 31 season, but he certainly has shown no signs of slowing down and being anything less than one of the best. With him, Vernon, and Jordan, the Dolphins have a solid trio of defensive ends.

The Dolphins have solid defensive tackles as well. Randy Starks was franchised this off-season, which makes sense as you want to be wary of giving players long-term deals heading into their age 30 season, but they couldn’t afford to lose him. He’s graded out well above average in each of the last 5 seasons and last year was actually his worst of the bunch, though he wasn’t bad at all. Playing 4-3 defensive tackle for the first time in a while, Starks struggled a little bit against the run, but continued to produce as a pass rusher with 4 sacks, 11 hits, and 21 hurries on 488 pass rush snaps, a 7.4% pass rush rate. He graded out 16^th at his position rushing the passer, but a poor run grade hurt his overall grade. Prior to last season, he had been a top-9 3-4 defensive end in each of the last 4 seasons, topping out at #2 in 2009. Only Justin Smith also maintained that kind of consistent success over that time period.

Starks will once again start opposite Paul Soliai. Soliai was once franchised and then subsequently given a fairly lucrative two-year deal (which he’s in the 2^nd season of now), but he’s struggled to live up to his 2010 season, when he graded out 12^th at his position. He’s been just about average in each of the last 2 seasons and is merely a two-down base package run stuffer. He’s graded out below average rushing the passer in both seasons and played more run snaps than pass snaps in both seasons.

Odrick should continue playing inside on passing downs regardless of whether or not he remains a defensive end. He’s alright in that capacity as his 6.5% pass rush rate isn’t horrible for a defensive tackle, but he tends to get washed against the run while playing inside. He’s only a situational inside player, which is not what they were hoping from him when they drafted him. Overall though, it’s a deep and talented defensive line and the strength of what was a very solid defense last year.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

I already went into detail about the Dolphins’ two new every down linebackers, Dannell Ellerbe and Philip Wheeler. Both remain one year wonders who, best case scenario, will adequately replace the level of play of their predecessors. They’re unlikely to upgrade this defense. Koa Misi is the 3^rd linebacker, playing solely as two-down run stuffing in base packages and coming off the field for a 5^th defensive back on passing downs. He’s a solid run stopper and plays that role well. He also sees a little bit of time on the defensive line as a pass rush specialist, but struggled in that role last season, grading out below average. He’ll probably do less of that this season with Jordan in the mix.

Grade: B+

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Secondary

The Dolphins also locked up one of their own for big money this off-season, re-signing safety Reshad Jones to a 4-year, 30 million dollar deal recently, before he could hit his contract year this season. Reshad Jones might not be that well known to the common fan, but the 3rd year safety broke out in relative obscurity last season in Miami, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 3rd ranked safety. He was solid against the run, but was most valuable in coverage, where he allowed just 19 catches on 39 attempts for 247 receiving yards, 1 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 4 passes and committing just 1 penalty. His 38.0 QB rating allowed was best at his position among full-time safeties.

If he continues to play this well, he’s well worth the 30 million over 4 years this contract gives him, with north of 15 million guaranteed. It makes him the 5th highest paid safety in the NFL, behind Troy Polamalu, Eric Berry, Dashon Goldson, and Eric Weddle. However, it is a risk giving him this kind of money after just one season, especially after he graded out below average in his first season as a starter in 2011, after being drafted in the 5th round in 2010.

That being said, this deal could be well worth it. If he has another season like 2012 again in 2013, he’d position himself going into free agency next off-season to get a contract similar to the one Eric Weddle (5 years, 40 million with 19 million guaranteed) or Dashon Goldson (5 years, 41.25 million with 22 million guaranteed) got. This could prove to be a bargain compared to those deals. It also prevented him from being unhappy, after the Dolphins spent tons of money on outside players before taking care of their own this off-season. He only reported to OTAs last month because the Dolphins promised him contract negotiations.

Jones will continue to start next to Chris Clemons at safety, after he was brought back on a 1-year deal. Clemons graded out above average last season, playing well against the run and in coverage, but prior to last season, he played just 22 snaps as a reserve in 2011 and struggled as a starter in 2010. We’ll have to see if the 2009 5^th round pick can keep it up. He could regress, but he could also improve and I think overall he should continue to be an asset for the Dolphins in the secondary. He’s an average starter, even conservatively speaking.

At cornerback, the Dolphins brought in Brent Grimes to replace Sean Smith, as I mentioned. Grimes was a top-10 cornerback on ProFootballFocus in both 2010 and 2011, including a #3 rank in 2011, but he missed most of last season with a torn Achilles and has played in just 13 games over the past 2 seasons. His former team, the Falcons, didn’t seem too interested in keeping him around this off-season and going into his age 30 season, his best days could be behind him. It was worth the risk though for a cornerback needy Dolphins team.

After him, the cornerback position remains a weakness on this defense. 2^nd round pick Jamar Taylor was penciled in as a rookie starter, but hernia surgery caused him to miss a lot of practice and left him behind the 8-ball. Veterans Dimitri Patterson and Richard Marshall are ahead of him for now. Marshall was once a decent starter, before signing with the Dolphins last off-season. In 2012, he was limited to 241 snaps because of serious back problems, which he says are behind him now.

Patterson, meanwhile, was claimed off waivers from Cleveland late in the season. Patterson has always been a decent slot cornerback, but struggled mightily when forced to play outside. The fact that the defensive back needy Browns waived him is telling. Both are owed fairly substantial salaries as both are scheduled to make 5.3 million this season. That’s a lot of money to pay for 2 average at best players, so it would be in the Dolphins’ best financial interest if Taylor could lock up either the #2 or #3 cornerback job and at least play outside in sub packages with either Marshall or Patterson on the slot. It’s tough to count on rookies though, especially defensive backs, and especially non-1^st rounders.

Grade: B

Head Coach

The jury is still out in Joe Philbin, who is going into his 2^nd year with the team. It’s tough to grade Head Coaches either way based off of one season, but the Dolphins do seem to have more hope now than when he took over, which has to count for something. I’d also say he exceeded expectations in his first season with the team, winning 7 games with a team that was supposed to be one of the NFL’s bottom feeders. We’ll see what year 2 has in store.

Grade: B-

Overall

The Dolphins’ defense was 7^th in the NFL, allowing 19.8 points per game last season. I don’t think they’ll be improved and they could be a little worse. Wheeler and Ellerbe are relatively unproven and replace equally talented and more proven players. Jordan gets added to the mix, but he won’t see a huge role as a rookie and the secondary still has issues. They should continue allowing around 20 points per game.

Offensively, they scored just 18.0 points per game last season. They should be improved, but the Mike Wallace addition is not as big as it seems and they still have a huge hole at left tackle. A Ryan Tannehill breakout out would obviously get this team into the playoffs, but I think it’s more likely that they score right around 20 points per game, roughly as many as they allow and even out as an average team.

One thing that could help is they should recover more fumbles, as they recovered just 37.5% of fumbles that hit the ground last season, leading to a -7 fumble margin, which lead to a -10 turnover margin. However, I think it’s unlikely to have a huge effect. At the same time, they could suffer more injuries than the 7^th adjusted games lost they had last season. They also have a tougher schedule, trading out the NFC West (good) and the AFC South (bad) for the AFC North (good) and the NFC South (good). They’ll be somewhere in the 7-9 wins range on the outside of the post-season.

I think they’re the 2^nd best team in their division and they should win at least 3 division games because they get 4 games against the Jets and Bills, but the Patriots are still way ahead of them. 3-3 in the division is reasonable and an improvement over last year’s 2-4 record. Outside of the division, they host Atlanta, Baltimore, Cincinnati, San Diego, and Carolina. San Diego should be a very winnable game, but the other 4 will be tough. 2 or 3 wins in those 5 seems reasonable. They also go to Cleveland, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh. New Orleans will be a very tough place to win, as is Pittsburgh, but they could win 2 of the other 3. I have them at 8-8, very much average.

Projection: 8-8 2^nd in AFC East

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Month: August 2013

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