Month: December 2014

Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 17

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 GB 332 49 32 47 11 5 3 79.54%
2 NO 376 46 22 55 27 7 0 79.17%
3 PIT 361 41 30 58 16 6 0 78.52%
4 NE 347 47 34 62 13 4 0 77.71%
5 DAL 322 49 26 54 24 3 1 77.45%
6 DEN 335 51 25 66 20 6 0 76.74%
7 BAL 323 41 32 54 19 8 0 76.31%
8 SEA 312 39 35 58 12 7 1 75.65%
9 MIA 338 36 35 53 22 11 0 75.56%
10 IND 355 48 28 64 31 8 1 75.33%
11 ATL 314 39 31 62 20 6 1 74.63%
12 SD 306 36 25 70 20 4 0 74.19%
13 KC 294 35 25 66 17 7 0 74.10%
14 CHI 310 38 12 67 29 14 0 74.04%
15 CAR 330 31 33 69 23 3 0 73.82%
16 NYG 314 41 22 74 27 11 0 72.60%
17 PHI 333 40 34 69 36 4 0 72.29%
18 CIN 294 37 31 70 23 5 0 71.96%
19 DET 287 30 38 64 19 8 0 71.08%
20 SF 285 28 29 69 23 8 0 70.81%
21 WAS 298 31 26 73 27 10 0 70.75%
22 MIN 273 28 33 72 19 5 2 69.68%
23 STL 273 31 28 76 24 5 0 69.57%
24 HOU 289 31 35 77 20 7 1 69.57%
25 ARZ 276 25 32 87 12 1 0 69.52%
26 NYJ 271 24 32 77 23 6 1 67.97%
27 CLE 278 28 30 87 21 9 0 67.55%
28 TEN 249 25 21 81 25 9 2 66.50%
29 TB 245 26 22 74 32 8 1 66.42%
30 BUF 257 28 37 81 22 8 2 65.52%
31 JAX 258 23 25 87 26 11 0 65.35%
32 OAK 238 25 22 100 27 5 0 63.07%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 BUF 288 26 34 82 30 4 1 67.53%
2 ARZ 283 29 30 74 25 8 0 69.49%
3 SEA 262 25 22 77 21 5 1 69.49%
4 DET 286 28 22 79 23 8 1 70.25%
5 KC 289 25 36 73 11 11 0 70.56%
6 STL 285 29 27 72 24 8 0 70.56%
7 CLE 326 33 33 78 29 7 1 70.81%
8 BAL 295 29 35 68 20 9 1 70.90%
9 DEN 301 36 28 79 23 6 1 71.10%
10 IND 300 40 18 82 23 13 0 71.43%
11 PHI 316 42 23 84 27 9 0 71.46%
12 HOU 316 33 20 76 33 10 0 71.52%
13 NE 313 29 33 61 24 15 0 72.00%
14 OAK 295 42 34 79 13 5 0 72.01%
15 NYJ 277 38 30 76 12 3 1 72.08%
16 SF 282 34 19 70 26 7 0 72.15%
17 CIN 320 32 30 71 23 8 2 72.43%
18 JAX 306 36 34 70 18 6 1 72.61%
19 NYG 303 37 29 67 26 6 0 72.65%
20 WAS 287 42 23 76 18 4 0 73.11%
21 MIA 291 36 30 56 24 8 2 73.15%
22 CAR 293 39 27 67 23 4 0 73.29%
23 SD 292 35 29 63 18 8 1 73.32%
24 PIT 295 37 30 65 18 3 1 73.94%
25 DAL 295 38 17 63 28 8 0 74.16%
26 MIN 309 36 27 70 19 4 0 74.19%
27 GB 316 34 24 58 26 11 0 74.63%
28 TB 333 40 39 61 22 4 0 74.75%
29 TEN 341 42 36 68 16 4 1 75.39%
30 ATL 341 39 36 53 28 3 0 76.00%
31 CHI 310 45 37 46 23 6 0 76.02%
32 NO 327 41 30 59 16 4 1 76.99%

 

Differential

1 SEA 6.16%
2 NE 5.71%
3 DEN 5.64%
4 BAL 5.41%
5 GB 4.91%
6 PIT 4.57%
7 IND 3.90%
8 KC 3.54%
9 DAL 3.29%
10 MIA 2.40%
11 NO 2.19%
12 SD 0.87%
13 DET 0.83%
14 PHI 0.83%
15 CAR 0.53%
16 ARZ 0.03%
17 NYG -0.05%
18 CIN -0.47%
19 STL -1.00%
20 SF -1.33%
21 ATL -1.37%
22 HOU -1.95%
23 CHI -1.97%
24 BUF -2.01%
25 WAS -2.36%
26 CLE -3.26%
27 NYJ -4.11%
28 MIN -4.52%
29 JAX -7.26%
30 TB -8.33%
31 TEN -8.89%
32 OAK -8.94%

2014 Week 16 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Last week

Against the Spread: 7-8-1

Straight Up: 8-8

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence: 0-0

Medium Confidence: 4-1

Low Confidence: 2-3

No Confidence: 1-3-1

Upset Picks: 0-1

On the season

Against the Spread: 132-104-4 (.559)

Straight Up: 151-88-1 (.632)

Pick of the Week: 8-7-1

High Confidence: 8-10

Medium Confidence: 49-28

Low Confidence: 32-28-2

No Confidence: 35-31-1

Upset Picks: 17-24

2014 Pro-Bowl Selections

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Awards, Uncategorized

QB: Tom Brady (New England), Drew Brees (New Orleans), Andrew Luck (Indianapolis), Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay), Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh), Tony Romo (Dallas)

RB: LeVeon Bell (Pittsburgh), Jamaal Charles (Kansas City), Justin Forsett (Baltimore), Marshawn Lynch (Seattle), Eddie Lacy (Green Bay), DeMarco Murray (Dallas)

FB: Anthony Sherman (Kansas City), Ryan Hewitt (Cincinnati)

WR: Odell Beckham (NY Giants), Dez Bryant (Dallas), WR Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh), WR TY Hilton (Indianapolis), WR Julio Jones (Atlanta), WR Jordy Nelson (Green Bay), WR Emmanuel Sanders (Denver), WR Demaryius Thomas (Denver)

TE: Rob Gronkowski (New England), Greg Olsen (Carolina), Delanie Walker (Tennessee), Jason Witten (Dallas)

OT: Kelvin Beachum (Pittsburgh), Jason Peters (Philadelphia), Tyron Smith (Dallas), Joe Staley (San Francisco), Joe Thomas (Cleveland), Andrew Whitworth (Cincinnati)

G: Joel Bitonio (Cleveland), TJ Lang (Green Bay), Evan Mathis (Philadelphia), Zach Martin (Dallas), Josh Sitton (Green Bay), Marshal Yanda (Baltimore)

C: Travis Frederick (Dallas), Rodney Hudson (Kansas City), Corey Linsley (Green Bay), Nick Mangold (NY Jets)

DE: Michael Bennett (Seattle), Calais Campbell (Arizona), Fletcher Cox (Philadelphia), Cameron Wake (Miami), JJ Watt (Houston), Mario Williams (Buffalo)

DT: Marcell Dareus (Buffalo), Aaron Donald (St. Louis), Gerald McCoy (Tampa Bay), Sheldon Richardson (NY Jets), Ndamukong Suh (Detroit), Muhammad Wilkerson (NY Jets)

OLB: Elvis Dumervil (Baltimore), Justin Houston (Kansas City), Ryan Kerrigan (Washington), DeAndre Levy (Detroit), Khalil Mack (Oakland), Von Miller (Denver)

MLB: Jamie Collins (New England), Dont’a Hightower (New England), Luke Kuechly (Carolina), Bobby Wagner (Seattle)

CB: Vontae Davis (Indianapolis), Corey Graham (Buffalo), Chris Harris (Denver), Darrelle Revis (New England), Orlando Scandrick (Dallas), Richard Sherman (Seattle), Sean Smith (Kansas City), Desmond Trufant (Atlanta)

FS: Glover Quin (Detroit), Eric Weddle (San Diego)

SS: Antoine Bethea (San Francisco), Devin McCourty (New England)

K: Matt Bryant (Atlanta), Adam Vinatieri (Indianapolis)

P: Johnny Hekker (St. Louis), Pat McAfee (Indianapolis)

RET: Devin Hester (Atlanta), Darren Sproles (Philadelphia)

ST: Kelcie McCray (Kansas City), Cedric Peerman (Cincinnati)

Pro-Bowlers by team

New England: 6

Buffalo: 3

NY Jets: 3

Miami: 1

Cincinnati: 3

Pittsburgh: 4

Baltimore: 3

Cleveland: 2

Indianapolis: 5

Houston: 1

Tennessee: 1

Jacksonville: 0

Denver: 4

Kansas City: 6

San Diego: 1

Oakland: 1

Dallas: 8

Philadelphia: 4

Washington: 1

NY Giants: 1

Green Bay: 6

Detroit: 3

Chicago: 0

Minnesota: 0

New Orleans: 1

Atlanta: 4

Carolina: 2

Tampa Bay: 1

Seattle: 4

San Francisco: 2

Arizona: 1

St. Louis: 2

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Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Steelers, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)

This is the toughest game of the week for me to predict. These two teams are almost identical in terms of rate of moving the chains differential this year, with Pittsburgh coming in 6th, and Kansas City coming in 7th. The Steelers have the better offense, moving the chains at a 78.23% rate, but allow opponents to move the chains at a 73.81% rate, a differential of 4.42%. Meanwhile, the Chiefs struggle, relatively, offensively, moving the chains at a 73.98% rate, but only allow opponents to move the chains at a 69.76% rate, a differential of 4.21%.

The Chiefs seem to be in a good spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation in which teams are 124-94 ATS since 2002, but it’s hard to classify this as a good spot, considering they have an equally big game next week against San Diego. Even though both of these teams are will be home favorites next week, neither as an easy game as the Chiefs host the Chargers and the Steelers host the Bengals in game that will have significant implications for the playoff race. Both of these two teams are essentially in the same spot with both teams controlling their own destiny to make the playoffs, if they win each of the next two games. Between that and how similar they’ve played on the field, this game is borderline impossible to call, but I’m going with the Chiefs and fading a slight public lean.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Kansas City Chiefs 21

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +3

Confidence: None

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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (10-4) at Arizona Cardinals (11-3)

A lot is made about the Seahawks’ homefield advantage in the NFC West, but the Cardinals have had a tough homefield advantage in recent years as well, going 29-11 ATS as home underdogs or favorites of less than 3 since 2007. This season alone they are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS at home. Despite that, the public is all over the Seahawks. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it makes some sense here.

The reason I say some sense is because I can’t be confident in Ryan Lindley. On the season, the Cardinals rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 70.30% rate, as opposed to 68.60% for their opponents, a differential of 1.70%. Meanwhile, the Seahawks rank 5th, moving the chains at a 75.29% rate, as opposed to 70.31% for their opponents, a differential of 4.98%. That suggests this line at 9 points is way too high. However, they move the chains at just a 67.18% rate in games where they don’t have Carson Palmer active, primarily playing Drew Stanton in those games. That still suggests this line is too high, but while Drew Stanton was a decent and functional backup, Ryan Lindley has never resembled that.

All of his action prior to this year was in 2012, when he completed 52.0% of his passes for an average of 4.40 YPA, 0 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, as the former 6th round pick showed a stunning lack of accuracy. It’s possible that he’ll be better in Bruce Arians system and he’s done a great job of getting the best out of guys, but he didn’t look good at all in limited action against the Rams, completing 4 of 10 for 30 yards. This line is probably still too high, especially given how dominant the Cardinals have been there, but I can’t be confident. The Seahawks are also in a good spot as teams are 95-64 ATS as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites since 2010. They don’t have any upcoming distractions on the horizon with only a home game against St. Louis left on their schedule. I’m going with the Cardinals, but, again, I’m not confident.

Seattle Seahawks 16 Arizona Cardinals 9

Pick against the spread: Arizona +9

Confidence: None

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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Falcons, Saints, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (5-9) at New Orleans Saints (6-8)

The Saints recently won 20 straight home games with Sean Payton and Drew Brees, covering in almost all of them (18-1-1 ATS), but they’ve since lost 4 straight games at home, all as favorites. On the season, they are just 2-5 ATS at home and oddly enough they are 4-3 ATS on the road. The Saints certainly aren’t the auto-bet at home they used to be, but it’s worth mentioning how much of an advantage they’ve had in the Superdome in recent years.

The Falcons, meanwhile, typically struggle on the road, especially over the past 2 seasons, going 4-8 ATS as road underdogs since the start of last year. This season, they move the chains at a 72.52% rate, as opposed to 76.95% for their opponents, on the road, a differential of -4.43%. The Falcons are 27-15 ATS off of a loss in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era, since 2008, but just 2-4 ATS on the road off of a loss in the last two seasons.

The Saints are better than their record suggests, ranking 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 79.60% rate, as opposed to 77.33% for their opponents, a differential of 2.27%. The Falcons, meanwhile, rank 21st, moving the chains at a 74.83% rate, as opposed to 76.23% for their opponents, a differential of -1.40%. However, this line already takes into account that the Saints are better than their record as it’s at 6.5 right now.

Both of these teams are in good spots with easy games on deck, New Orleans going to Tampa Bay and Atlanta hosting the Panthers, meaning that both teams should be able to focus completely on this must win game. Divisional home favorites (like the Saints) are 37-25 ATS before being divisional road favorites since 2002, while divisional road underdogs (like the Falcons) are 60-43 ATS before being divisional home favorites. However, the Saints’ game next week is the easier of the two, which puts them in the better spot. The early line has them favored by 4.5 in Tampa Bay. Teams are 93-67 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, including 60-40 ATS before being 4+ road favorites. I’m taking the Saints, but I’m not confident.

New Orleans Saints 30 Atlanta Falcons 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -6.5

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Browns, Panthers, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (7-7) at Carolina Panthers (5-8-1)

The Browns had a horrific showing last week at home in Johnny Manziel’s debut losing the first down battle 5-24 against the Bengals and moving the chains at a 35.71% rate, as opposed to 78.38% for the Bengals. As a result of that, this line with Carolina favored by 4 is pretty reasonable. On the season, the Browns move the chains at a 68.28% rate, as opposed to 70.21% for their opponents, a differential of -1.94% that ranks 25th. The Panthers, meanwhile, rank 19th, moving the chains at a 73.45% rate, as opposed to 74.25% for their opponents, a differential of -0.80%.

However, teams generally do well off of a home shutout loss, going 40-26 ATS since 1989 off of a home game in which they didn’t score any points. On top of that, teams are 82-47 ATS since 2002 off of an ATS loss off of 28 or more. It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. I don’t think the Browns are undervalued, but they could easily be overlooked and embarrassed. Johnny Manziel, in particular, has been listening all week to how much of a bust he is, even though he’s made just one start and he’s 5 months removed from being a first round pick. I don’t expect him to be nearly as caught off guard this week, humbled off the worst performance of his career.

Neither of these two teams is in a good spot with tough divisional road games next week, Cleveland in Baltimore and Carolina in Atlanta. However, the Browns are in the worse spot. Non-divisional road underdogs (like the Browns) are 51-83 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road underdogs since 2002, while non-divisional home favorites (like the Panthers) are 89-106 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. I’m taking the Browns because I like their bounce back potential off of such an ugly loss and I don’t like how everyone is already writing off Johnny Football, but they’re not in a great spot, we’re not getting any line value with them, and Manziel is still unproven, so I’m not confident.

Carolina Panthers 19 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +4

Confidence: None

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San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, 49ers, Chargers, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (8-6) at San Francisco 49ers (7-7)

The public is all over the Chargers here. It’s understandable. The 49ers have lost 3 straight games, haven’t covered since week 11 in New York against the Giants and haven’t covered at home since week 13 of last season. They’ve been eliminated from the playoffs and Jim Harbaugh is basically a goner. However, these players will all still play hard for themselves and the talent difference between these two teams isn’t really that much.

I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, especially when the public is on the underdog. Whenever the public and the odds makers have different ideas about which team is going to win and which team should be favored, it usually doesn’t end well for the public. If the Chargers are really as likely to win as the public thinks, why do the people who set lines for a living still have San Francisco favored?

Fading the public does make sense this week. As I mentioned, the talent difference between these two teams isn’t really that much. The Chargers move the chains at a 73.63% rate, as opposed to 73.30% for their opponents, a differential of 0.33% that ranks 14th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the 49ers rank 18th, moving the chains at a 70.59% rate as opposed to 71.36% for their opponents, a differential of -0.77%. The 49ers lost Ray McDonald, a valuable defensive lineman, this week, releasing him after it came out that he was being investigated for violence against a woman for the 2nd time this year. They’ll also be without talented linebacker Chris Borland.

However, the Chargers are going to be without both Keenan Allen and Ryan Mathews this week, while Philip Rivers reportedly is playing through a serious injury, which would explain why he’s struggled mightily over the past 2 weeks. The Chargers generally are very good in December, but they didn’t cover at home against either Denver or New England in the last 2 weeks and neither game was really that close. As long as Rivers is playing through a significant injury, missing his top two offensive weapons, I don’t think the Chargers’ past December success is relevant to this game.

The Chargers are also in a tough spot with another very important game in Kansas City on deck next week, so it’s possible they somewhat overlook a struggling non-conference opponent. Teams are 51-83 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road underdogs. Meanwhile, the 49ers host the broken down Cardinals next week. If this line does move to San Diego being favored before game time, that would put them in a bad spot because teams are 62-38 ATS since 2012 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. It’s hard to be confident in the 49ers, but they should be the right side.

San Francisco 49ers 24 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -1

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at New York Jets: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Jets, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (11-3) at New York Jets (3-11)

The Patriots are one of the best teams in the NFL and the Jets are one of the worst, but this line is still a little high at 10.5. The Patriots move the chains at a 77.87% rate, as opposed to 72.00% for their opponents, a differential of 5.87% that ranks 2nd in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Jets rank 28th, moving the chains at a 67.73% rate, as opposed to 71.88% for their opponents, a differential of -4.16%. However, double digit road favorites are rare. It’s only happened one other time this season (Denver in Oakland) and 17 times previously since 2010.

It’s usually reserved for matchups between the absolute worst and absolute best teams in the NFL and teams are just 6-11 ATS in this spot since 2010 anyway. Despite that, the public is all over the Patriots. The odds makers know they can make this spread basically as high as they want and the public isn’t going to bite on the Jets. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because they always lose money in the long run.

However, I’m actually going to side with the public this week, though I’m not that confident. The Patriots always get better as the season goes on, at least in the regular season. They are 33-4 straight up in the 2nd half of the season since 2010, going 24-13 ATS. It makes sense as Bill Belichick is the best mid-season adjuster in the NFL. This season, they’ve really been on fire since week 5, losing just once, a close defeat in Lambeau against the Packers, arguably the toughest place to win in the NFL. Excluding the first 4 weeks of the season, they are moving the chains at a 81.32% rate, as opposed to 72.00% for their opponents, which is borderline otherworldly.

Speaking of Belichick being a fantastic adjustor, he does a great job in same season, regular season revenge games. The Patriots haven’t lost to the same team twice the regular season since 2000, winning and covering in all 10 instances. This isn’t a true revenge game because the Jets didn’t knock the Patriots off in Gillette earlier this year, but they came close, covering the spread, losing by two, and being a blocked field goal away from winning.

However, Belichick is also 5-2 ATS in same season, regular season rematches against opponents who they previously beat, but didn’t cover against. That means that teams that previously covered the spread against the spread against the Patriots are just 2-15 ATS in the rematch since 2001, which is absurd. Despite the outcome of that game, Belichick can’t be happy with how his team performed in the first matchup and the perfectionist and master adjustor should be able to get his team to play up to their abilities this week.

Also helping them is the fact that they don’t really have another tough game left in the regular season as week 17 is a home game against the Bills. There aren’t any distractions for the Patriots on the horizon, while the Jets still have to deal with a trip to Miami. Teams are 95-64 ATS as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites since 2010, while 6+ point underdogs are 65-91 ATS before 6+ point underdogs over that same time period. Going off of that, teams are 27-60 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point underdogs when their opponent will next be 6+ point favorites, as teams in that situation are at such a disadvantage schedule wise. The Patriots should be focused and take care of business here by at least two touchdowns, but I’m not super confident. I wish this line was lower.

New England Patriots 27 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: New England -10.5

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Commanders, Eagles, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at Washington Redskins (3-11)

This is one of two games this week where the line is really off, according to rate of moving the chains differential (the other one is Chicago/Detroit). The Redskins haven’t been quite as bad as their record this season, moving the chains at a 70.28% rate, as opposed to 72.20% for their opponents, a differential of -1.92% that ranks 24th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Eagles haven’t been as good as their record, moving the chains at a 71.43% rate, as opposed to 71.06% for their opponents, a differential of 0.36% that ranks 13th in the NFL.

Their offense has been even worse over the past few games with Mark Sanchez under center in place of an injured Nick Foles, as they’ve moved the chains at a 70.10% rate over the past 6 games, despite 5 of those 6 games coming against opponents who rank in the bottom-8 in rate of moving the chains differential (Tennessee 28th, Green Bay 30th, Carolina 25th, Dallas twice 27th). Things have been especially bad over the past 2 games, resulting in home losses to Seattle and Dallas. It’s really hard to trust Mark Sanchez as a massive road favorite, especially with the public all over Philadelphia. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it does here.

However, unlike Chicago/Detroit, I’m not confident enough to put money on this one. There’s a lot of stuff working against the Redskins as well, including an injury to top defensive player Jason Hatcher. On top of that, the Eagles have a much easier game than the Redskins do next week as they head to New York to take on the Giants, while the Redskins have to host the Cowboys. Teams are 93-67 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites (the early line is Philadelphia -3). On the other side of the coin, Teams are 64-98 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ home underdogs, including 34-69 ATS before being 4+ home underdogs, and 12-25 ATS before being 7+ home underdogs (the early line is Dallas –8). The Redskins should be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: Washington +8.5

Confidence: Low

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