Year: 2014

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Carolina Panthers (3-7-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-7)

This line is right about where it should be at 2.5 in favor of the Vikings. The Panthers are a little bit better than the Vikings on the season, moving the chains at a 71.84% rate, as opposed to 76.04% for their opponents, a differential of -4.21% that ranks 25th. For comparison, the Vikings are two spots down at 27, moving the chains at a 68.65% rate, as opposed to 73.81% for their opponents, a differential of -5.16%. However, as long as this line is under 3 in favor of Minnesota, we’re not getting any real line value with the Panthers, especially since Star Lotulelei will likely remain out with an ankle injury for Carolina.

However, I do like the Panthers for a low confidence pick this week. I think this game will mean more to them as they look to end a 5 game losing streak. Adding in the tie in Cincinnati, the Panthers haven’t won since week 5 and have one win since week 2. They’re the more desperate and embarrassed team and can take advantage of a Minnesota team that could be flat after playing the Packers so close and losing last week. Teams are 74-54 ATS since 2002 on a 5+ game losing streak. On top of that, teams are 24-9 ATS since 1989 on a 5+ game losing streak off of a bye. They’ve had 2 weeks to regroup and I expect them to get back into the win column this week, though I’m not that confident as long as the line is under 3.

Carolina Panthers 20 Minnesota Vikings 17 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Carolina +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Texans, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (2-9) at Houston Texans (5-6)

The Titans are in their 2nd of two road games which is typically a good spot for teams. Teams are 110-74 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 93-52 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 187-191 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.36 points per game, as opposed to 262-380 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.34 points per game.

However, I’m going to go the other way this week for two reasons. For one, the Texans are also in a good spot this week. Divisional home favorites are 115-84 ATS since 1989 before being divisional road favorites and the Texans have a trip to Jacksonville on deck. The early line for that game is 3.5. Teams are 87-57 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites and 55-33 ATS before being 4+ point favorites. The Texans have no distractions on the horizon and should be completely focused to take care of business against an inferior opponent.

Speaking of the Titans being an inferior opponent, this line isn’t nearly high enough. The Texans aren’t a great team, but they are significantly better than the Titans, ranking 24th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 70.36% rate, as opposed to 73.24% for their opponents, a differential of -2.88%. The Titans, meanwhile, rank all the way down at 31st, moving the chains at a 67.55% rate, as opposed to 76.10% for their opponents, a differential of -8.55%. We’re not getting any line value whatsoever with the Titans so I can’t take them this week. I’m not confident in Houston, but they should be the right side.

Houston Texans 23 Tennessee Titans 13

Pick against the spread: Houston -6.5

Confidence: None

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New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Giants, Jaguars, Uncategorized

New York Giants (3-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10)

At first glance, as bad as the Jaguars are, this line does make sense. The Jaguars rank 30th, moving the chains at a 65.53% rate, as opposed to 73.01% for their opponents, a differential of -7.48%. However, the Giants aren’t exactly great, moving the chains at a 73.08% rate, as opposed to 74.79% for their opponents, a differential of 1.71% that ranks 21st in the NFL. That suggests that this line (2.5 or 3 depending on where you go it) is right around where it should be.

However, that doesn’t take into account that the Giants are typically cover the spread on the road in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. Since 2004, the Giants are 51-41 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 50-40 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home (about 3 points), but the odds makers have never really caught on to that. As a result, they are 55-37 ATS on the road over that time period, including 14-7 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs, as they are here.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, are in a bad spot with the Texans coming to town next. Non-divisional home underdogs are 33-53 ATS since 1989 before being divisional home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 57-89 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, I think it’s both. The Jaguars are a bad team and could easily be distracted by a divisional opponent coming to town next week and overlook this random non-conference opponent.

The only reason this isn’t a higher confidence pick is that the public is all over the Giants at an alarming rate. I hate siding with heavy publicly backed sides because the odds makers always make money in the long run. The public doesn’t see how the Giants could not win by 3 or more and this could very well be a trap game because it’s too good to be true. There are enough reasons for me to side with the public with this one, but I’m worried I’m missing something. This is a medium confidence pick at 2.5 and a low confidence pick at 3.

New York Giants 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: NY Giants -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (6-5) at New York Jets (2-9)

The Jets were blown out last Monday, losing 38-3 in Detroit to the Bills in a game that had both its time and its location moved by a snow storm in Buffalo. Teams generally don’t do well off of a Monday Night blowout loss, going 18-28 ATS since 2002 after a loss on Monday Night by 21 or more. However, it’s unclear if the same type of thing will happen here because that game wasn’t nationally televised so it wasn’t as embarrassing.

The Jets also play again on Monday Night Football here, so they’ll have an extra day to regroup that they wouldn’t have otherwise had. There’s almost no data on teams playing back-to-back Monday Night games because the NFL doesn’t schedule those for teams. It takes a special act of nature for something like this to happen so that kind of leaves us in the dark in terms of what the Jets’ mental state will be this week and whether or not they’ll be able to bounce back. We do know that teams generally do well off of a blowout loss by 35 or more in general, going 47-25 ATS since 2002. This makes sense as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot.

However, on the other hand, divisional home underdogs do not do well in nationally televised night games, going 31-59 ATS since 1989. They’re also the significantly inferior team here as the Dolphins remain better than their record, especially after coming close to knocking off the Broncos in Denver last week. They still rank 4th, moving the chains at a 75.76% rate, as opposed to 70.94% for their opponents, a differential of 4.82%.

The Jets, meanwhile, rank 28th, moving the chains at a 68.22% rate, as opposed to 73.54% for their opponents, a differential of -5.31%. Making things even worse for the Jets, Muhammad Wilkerson is expected to be out for this game and he’s one of their few good players. As high as this line is at 6.5, it’s not quite high enough so while the Jets could be overlooked and embarrassed, I don’t think they’re undervalued. There’s not enough here for me to be that confident in Miami, but they should be the right side.

Miami Dolphins 27 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: Miami -6.5

Confidence: Low

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Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bills, Browns, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (7-4) at Buffalo Bills (6-5)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Browns are in their 2nd of two road games, which tends to be a good spot for teams. Teams are 46-26 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a win as road underdogs. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 187-191 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.36 points per game, as opposed to 262-380 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.34 points per game.

On the other hand, the Bills are coming off of a Monday Night Football blowout win. Teams are 33-15 ATS since 2002 off of a win on Monday Night Football by 21 or more. Teams tend to carry that momentum into the next week. However, it’s unclear if that will still happen because the Bills played a weird Monday Night game last week, beating the Jets 38-3 in Detroit in a game that started at 7 PM ET and that wasn’t nationally televised, as a result of a snowstorm forcing to location and the time of the game to be changed. That adds uncertainty to the situation this week.

Both of these two teams have tough games next week, as the Bills head to Denver and the Browns host the Colts. Non-divisional home favorites are 73-99 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional road underdogs. Even worse, the Bills could be double digit underdogs in Denver next week. Teams are 42-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs as a tough game like that upcoming presents a massive distraction. The early line is 9.5 so that trend might not be in play, but it’s still worth mentioning and the logic could still hold either way.

On the Browns’ side, non-divisional road underdogs are 92-126 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 57-89 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012. The early line is right at 3 and may end up being less than 3, so that trend isn’t definitely in play, but again it’s worth mentioning and the logic still holds. The Browns are the better of these two teams, moving the chains at a 71.19% rate, as opposed to 70.73% for their opponents, a differential of 0.46% that ranks 17th in the NFL. The Bills, meanwhile, rank just 22nd, moving the chains at a 66.25% rate, as opposed to 68.22% for their opponents, a differential of -1.97%. However, this line is under 3 so we’re not really getting any real line value with the Browns. I’m going to take the Bills and hope the home team wins by a field goal and continues their momentum from last week, but I’m not confident at all.

Buffalo Bills 16 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -2.5

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bears, Lions, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (4-7) at Detroit Lions (7-4)

The Lions are in a nice spot here, after a very tough and unrewarding road trip that sent them to Arizona and New England, who are a combined 18-4. Teams that lose back-to-back road games are 43-25 ATS in their next game as long as they still have a winning record and they’re home favorites. It makes sense. Any team that is able to lose two road games and still have a winning record and be favored at home was probably pretty good to begin with and may be undervalued off of those two losses. It’s a nice bounce back spot for the Lions.

While the Lions are coming off of a very challenging stretch, they’re about to start a very easy stretch as they host the Bears, the Buccaneers, and the Vikings in consecutive weeks. They’ll be very focused to get back on track this week and teams are 61-47 ATS as home favorites before being home favorites again in their next two weeks. On top of that, they could be double digit home favorites next week against the lowly Buccaneers, which would open up a couple other trends. Teams are 98-80 ATS since 2008 before being double digit home favorites. That doesn’t seem that powerful, but it’s way more powerful when a team is home favorites before being double digit home favorites and their opponent will next be home underdogs, as is the case here. Teams are 27-10 ATS in that spot since 1989. The early line for Detroit/Tampa Bay is 9, so that trend might not be in play, but it’s worth mentioning and the logic could still hold. The Lions have no real distractions on the horizon.

The Bears, meanwhile, have to host the Cowboys next week, speaking of them being home underdogs next week. Divisional road underdogs are 58-71 ATS before being non-divisional home underdogs. The early line on that game is 3 and teams are 57-89 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012, as a game like that represents a big distraction. That line may end up being less than 3, so that trend isn’t definitely in play, but again it’s worth mentioning and the logic still holds. The Bears have a much more challenging game next week than the Lions and that bodes well for the Lions’ chances this week.

However, I’m not confident in the Lions at all because the advanced numbers suggest they aren’t as good as their record. The Lions move the chains at a 69.47% rate, as opposed to 71.00% for their opponents, a differential of -1.53% that ranks 19th in the NFL. The Bears, meanwhile, rank 14th, moving the chains at a 75.21% rate, as opposed to 73.94% for their opponents, a differential of 1.27%. The Lions have had a tough schedule, but I don’t trust their offense to cover this line, even against the Bears’ weak defense. Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson are powerful outside weapons, but they can’t run the ball, their offensive line is a mess thanks to injuries, they have nothing at tight end or over the middle, and Matt Stafford has been erratic this season. I’m taking the Lions because the trends say to, but I’m not confident at all.

Detroit Lions 27 Chicago Bears 19

Pick against the spread: Detroit -7

Confidence: None

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New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Saints, Steelers, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (4-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4)

I am legitimately shocked. The Saints had won 20 straight home games as long as they had both Drew Brees under center and Sean Payton on the sideline and they had 3 straight home games as favorites to move to 7-4 and run away with the pathetic NFC South. And they lost all 3. The types of things that are plaguing this team are the types of things that usually even out in the long run, but they have yet to do so for this team. They have a 1-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They have a -9 turnover margin and a -3 return touchdown margin, both powered by a 42.31% fumble recovery rate that ranks 28th in the NFL.

The Saints’ defense isn’t any good at all, but their offense has been moving the ball very efficiently, leading the NFL in first downs by a wide margin. They rank 10th in the NFL, moving the chains at a league best 80.65% rate, as opposed to 77.51% for their opponents, a differential of 3.13%. That’s why I think they’re better than their record and why they are going to be underrated and provide value going forward. However, this week they play the Steelers, who have been better than New Orleans both in record and actual level of play. They’re also on the road, where they haven’t been great recently, and the Steelers have a strong homefield advantage.

The Steelers rank 8th, moving the chains at a 77.42% rate, as opposed to 73.49% for their opponents, a differential of 3.93%. At home, the Steelers are 37-27 ATS at home in the Mike Tomlin era. Meanwhile, the Saints are 4-11 ATS on the road over the past 2 seasons. We’re not getting any line value with the Saints on the road as 4.5 point underdogs here in Pittsburgh, a superior team with a strong homefield advantage.

However, I’m still taking the Saints here as long as the line is higher than 4 because they’re in a good spot. For one, Drew Brees is 21-7 ATS off of a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, though that hasn’t been the case this season and he’s only 5-3 ATS on the road off of a loss. Brees is also 18-12 ATS as an underdog since coming to the Saints in 2006 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, though just 14-10 ATS on the road.

The Steelers also have a tough road game in Cincinnati next week, while the Saints return home for to play the Panthers, a team they’ve already beaten, in a game they’ll almost definitely be favored in. Non-divisional road underdogs are 119-94 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home favorites, while non-divisional home favorites are 101-124 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs. Combining the two, teams are 102-63 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. I’m not confident in the Saints at all on the road against a tough opponent though. This line isn’t high enough for me to be confident.

Pittsburgh Steelers 34 New Orleans Saints 31

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +4.5

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Eagles, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3)

The Cowboys have been horrible as home favorites since 2010, going 7-22 ATS in that situation. This isn’t unique to them as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average recently. At home, the NFC East is 73-82 since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.05 points per game and going 59-93 ATS. On the road, they are 74-78, getting outscored by an average of 2.34 points per game and going 80-70 ATS. As you can imagine, road teams in NFC East divisional games tend to do well, going 24-14 ATS over that time period as divisional road underdogs.

I’m not that confident in Philadelphia though because they are the inferior team and we’re not really getting any line value with them. The Cowboys rank 12th, moving the chains at a 76.22% rate, as opposed to 73.83% for their opponents, a differential of 2.39%. The Eagles are one spot behind them at 13th, moving the chains at a 71.83% rate, as opposed to 70.05% for their opponents, a differential of 1.78%. However, their offense hasn’t been good with Mark Sanchez under center, moving the chains at a 70.48% rate over the past 3 games. That’s about a percent and a half worse, despite the fact that they were facing Carolina (30th in rate of moving the chains allowed), Green Bay (29th), and Tennessee (31st). That’s about as easy of a schedule as you can get for an offense.

That’s also despite having Chip Kelly at head coach and despite the offensive line finally getting healthy. Even though Nick Foles wasn’t playing well himself, Sanchez has proven to be an inferior quarterback to Foles, which shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. They’ve put up some big point totals recently, scoring 45 against Carolina and 43 against Tennessee, but both were powered by 3 return touchdowns, were isn’t a sustainable way to put up points. The Eagles have a solid defense, but the Cowboys are the toughest defense that Sanchez has faced (that’s not saying much) and they could give him trouble. I’m still taking the Eagles here on the road, but I’m not confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Dallas Cowboys 23 Upset Pick +155

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, 49ers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (7-4) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals in Seattle in impressive fashion last week, but they are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 46-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 44-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.80 points per game at home. This is opposed to a 24-42 record away from home (28-37-1 ATS), getting outscored by 3.76 points per game. This season, they are 2-3 on the road, as opposed to 5-1 at home. On the road, they’ve moved the chains at a 77.18% rate, as opposed to 76.81% for their opponents, a differential of 0.37%.

They’re even worse on the road as road underdogs, going 15-25 ATS in that spot since 2007, including 9-18 ATS as road underdogs off a home game. This is only the 3rd time they’ve been road underdogs over the past 2 seasons, but for good reason (the other two instances were last year in San Francisco and two weeks ago in Kansas City). They aren’t as good as they were last season (the fact that they’ll be without Brandon Mebane and Max Unger this week doesn’t help) and San Francisco is solid.

San Francisco isn’t quite as good as their record, ranking 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 71.47% rate, as opposed to 70.98% for their opponents, a differential of 0.49%. However, they’re still solid and Seattle only ranks 9th, moving the chains at a 75.89% rate, as opposed to 72.15% for their opponents, a differential of 3.74%. As I said, they aren’t as good this season, especially on the road. San Francisco definitely deserves to be home favorites here. As they did in their other two instances as road underdogs over the past two seasons and as they did in their previous two trips to San Francisco with Russell Wilson, I expect the Seahawks to lose straight up here.

San Francisco is also in the better spot as their next game is in Oakland. They will have absolutely no distractions with such an easy game coming up in ten days, while Seattle has another tough game in Philadelphia up next, where they could once again be road underdogs. San Francisco, meanwhile, will almost definitely be significant road favorites. Teams are 87-57 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, including 55-33 ATS before being 4+ point favorites, and 23-7 ATS before being 7+ point favorites. I have confidence that the 49ers will win here.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Seattle Seahawks 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -1

Confidence: Medium

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Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Falcons, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (9-2) at Atlanta Falcons (4-7)

The Falcons lost at home last week, but that hasn’t been the norm for them at home in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. They are 31-21-1 ATS at home (38-15 straight up) since those two came in back in 2008, as long as Matt Ryan is healthy, including 7-3 ATS as home underdogs, as they are here. The fact that they lost last week actually makes it more likely that they cover this week as they’re very good off of a loss in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. They are 26-14 ATS off of a loss since 2008, including 17-9 ATS at home and 5-1 ATS as home underdogs.

We’re also getting line value with the Falcons as field goal underdogs here, even before we get into how good they’ve been at home. The Cardinals are not as good as their 9-2 record, moving the chains at a 72.14% rate, as opposed to 69.33% for their opponents, a differential of 2.81% that ranks just 11th. They’ve been way too reliant on a +12 turnover margin this season, powered by a 65.00% rate of recovering fumbles (2nd in the NFL), a 2-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, and a +3 return touchdown margin. Atlanta, meanwhile, ranks 20th, moving the chains at a 73.56% rate, as opposed to 75.27% for their opponents, a differential of 1.71%.

Arizona is also really missing Carson Palmer, their starting quarterback who is out for the season with a torn ACL.  Palmer completed 62.9% of his passes for an average of 7.26 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while backup Drew Stanton has completed 53.6% of his passes for an average of 7.08 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. They’ve moved the chains at a 69.47% rate in games that Drew Stanton started and a 73.96% rate in games started by Carson Palmer. They have no business being field goal favorites. They were exposed last week in Seattle and I think they will continue to be exposed this week in Arizona. They’ll be looking to get an easy win off of a very disappointing loss and I think they could overlook an Atlanta team that, as bad as their record is, is very tough at home generally.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play on the Falcons is because they have to go to Green Bay next week. Teams are 99-126 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home underdogs before being non-divisional road underdogs, while teams are 42-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs, which the Falcons undoubtedly will be next week. Still, there’s enough stuff here for me to feel confident grabbing the field goal with the Falcons, especially with the public all over Arizona.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Arizona Cardinals 23 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +3

Confidence: Medium

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