Month: March 2015

San Diego Chargers re-sign CB Brandon Flowers

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chargers, Uncategorized

Flowers was Pro Football Focus’ 85th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible in 2013, which led to his release from Kansas City, but, aside from that, he’s been one of the best cornerbacks in football over the last 6 years. From 2009-2012, Flowers graded out in the top-9 among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons, the only cornerback in the NFL who could say that, and then he bounced back in 2014, grading out 15th with the Chargers on a one-year prove it deal.

The 5-10 189 pounder doesn’t fit every scheme and he was a horrible fit for Bob Sutton’s man press scheme in Kansas City in 2013, but San Diego clearly knows how to use him and he’s one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL when used properly. He’s only going into his age 29 season and this 4-year deal worth a total of 36 million is a very good value for him, considering Kareem Jackson got 8.5 million annually and Byron Maxwell is expected to clear 10 million annually.

Grade: A

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Buffalo Bills extend RB LeSean McCoy

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bills, Uncategorized

When the Bills swapped Kiko Alonso for LeSean McCoy earlier this week, a lot of people didn’t get it. After all, McCoy is a better player than Alonso. While that might be true, it could easily not be a true a year or two from now, as Alonso is going into his age 25 season and McCoy is going into his age 27 season at a position with a very short careerspan. Then there’s the issue of money. McCoy was owed 24.5 million over the final 3 seasons of his deal, while Alonso was owed 1.7 million over the final 2 seasons of his deal, with an option to be signed cheaply for 2017 as well as a restricted free agent.

If that wasn’t bad enough, the Bills made matters worse by ripping up McCoy’s original deal and replacing it with a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal with 26.25 million guaranteed. They kind of had to do that, as McCoy was not happy about being traded to Buffalo, but it’s still way too much money. If McCoy plays like he did in 2013 for each of the next 3 seasons, he’ll be worth that 26.25 million guaranteed, but that’s doubtful and not just because of his age.

That 2013 season is the only season he’s ever graded out above 10th on Pro Football Focus among running backs. He’s a good running back with one great season on his resume. He’s not a great running back. Given how much the running back position has been devalued in the NFL, I’m not even sure McCoy would have gotten this kind of deal if he was a free agent this off-season. The Bills are giving him this deal AND giving up a promising young linebacker for him. It’s going to backfire long-term for a team that needs to retain Jerry Hughes and Marcell Dareus long-term and add to an offensive line that ranked 32nd on Pro Football Focus in run blocking last season. For comparison, Philadelphia ranked 1st. McCoy can’t be happy about that. Maybe that’s why he demanded this extension.

Grade: D

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Green Bay Packers 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Packers, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Middle Linebacker

AJ Hawk and Brad Jones were the week 1 starters for the Packers at middle linebacker last season, but both had atrocious seasons. Hawk was the starter the whole season, but graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 52nd ranked middle linebacker out of 60 eligible. Jones only made the one start and played just 211 snaps on the season so he didn’t qualify for Pro Football Focus’ middle linebacker rankings, but no middle linebacker played fewer snaps than he did and graded out worse. Both could be cap casualties this off-season, while reserve Jamari Lattimore, who played 366 snaps last season, is a free agent this off-season. Sam Barrington is a young player they like, but he struggled on 285 snaps in 2014, after playing just 1 snap as a 7th round rookie in 2013. Things were so bad at the position that they played Clay Matthews inside from time to time this season, but he’s much better outside so that’s not a long-term solution. They need help at this position badly this off-season.

Defensive Tackle

BJ Raji missed the entire 2014 season with a torn biceps, leaving mediocre journeyman Letroy Guion to man the nose. Guion predictably struggled, grading out below average, and he was also arrested in the off-season for possession of marijuana and a firearm. He’s a free agent this off-season, as is Raji. This is a position they’ll need to find help at this off-season.

Tight End

As good as the Packers’ receiving corps is, they really didn’t get anything from the tight end position last season. Andrew Quarless led the team with 29 catches for 323 yards and 3 touchdowns from the tight end position. Richard Rodgers, a 2014 3rd round pick, could be better in his 2nd season in the league in 2015, but this is still somewhere they could add this off-season.

Offensive Tackle

At left tackle, David Bakhtiari has made all 32 starts over the past 2 seasons, since the Packers drafted him in the 4th round in 2013, but he’s graded out below average in each of those 2 seasons. Meanwhile, right tackle Bryan Bulaga is a free agent and could easily not be back next season. If he leaves, they could move Bakhtiari to right tackle, where he might find life easier, but they would need to find a new left tackle, which won’t be easy this off-season. Either way, offensive tackle help will be needed if Bulaga isn’t retained.

Wide Receiver

If the Packers are able to bring Randall Cobb back, they’ll have a strong trio with him, Jordy Nelson, and Davante Adams, a 2014 2nd round pick. If Cobb isn’t back, all of a sudden, they’ll have problems. Adams flashed as a rookie, but overall graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 99th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible. He could be a lot better in his 2nd year in the league, but he’ll be tough to trust as a starter and their depth behind him is suspect.

Defensive End

Mike Daniels has been fantastic as a starting 3-4 defensive end over the past 2 seasons, but they need help opposite him. Datone Jones was drafted in the first round in 2013 to be a starter and he flashed last season, but he’s played just 586 snaps in 2 seasons. He should have a bigger role in 2014, but their depth is suspect. Josh Boyd struggled in 2014 and might be moving to nose tackle in 2015.

Key Free Agents

WR Randall Cobb

Randall Cobb didn’t see a ton of action as a 2nd round rookie in 2011, but he had a strong, efficient 2012 season, catching 80 passes for 954 yards and 8 touchdowns on 102 targets (78.4%) and 422 routes run (2.26 yards per route run). He was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked wide receiver that season. Cobb was set for a bigger role in 2013 and everyone expected a breakout year. He was on his way to that before missing 10 games with a broken leg and finished the season with 31 catches for 433 yards and 4 touchdowns in just 6 games. In 2014, he played all 16 games and picked up right where he left off. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked wide receiver and caught 91 passes for 1287 yards and 12 touchdowns on 125 targets (72.8%) and 574 routes run (2.24 yards per route run). Only going into his age 25 season, Cobb is going to get paid a lot of money on his next contract, wherever he ends up signing.

OT Bryan Bulaga

Bulaga has been a starter for the Packers since they drafted him in the 1st round in 2010, making his debut as a starter in week 5 of 2010. However, despite that, he’s only made 48 starts in 5 seasons, as he’s missed 30 games with injuries over that time period, including all of 2013 with a torn ACL. When on the field, he’s been up and down. He struggled mightily as a rookie, grading out 71st out of 78 eligible in 2010, but he ranked 7th among offensive tackles on 12 starts in 2011. In 2012, he graded out below average in 9 starts before missing all of 2013, but he returned in 2014 to make 15 starts and grade out 16th among offensive tackles. He’s easily the best offensive tackle available on the open market, despite his inconsistent past, and he’ll get a good amount of money on the open market, but he’ll be a risky signing for whoever signs him.

CB Tramon Williams

Williams is going into his age 32 season so he won’t command a huge annual salary or much if any guaranteed money beyond 2015, but he should still be a solid starter next season. He’s not the player he was in 2009, when he graded out 9th, or 2010, when he graded out 8th, but he’s graded out above average in 6 straight seasons and made 95 of 96 starts over that time period. Something around 3 years, 17 million, with 7 million guaranteed would be appropriate for him. Seattle has been rumored to be interested in him, as they have a cornerback need and GM John Schneider was part of the team that originally brought Williams to Green Bay. A return to Green Bay is also an option.

CB Davon House

House, a 2011 4th round pick, has been buried on the depth chart in Green Bay over the past 4 seasons, playing just 1201 defensive snaps combined over that time period, all over the past 3 seasons. However, he’s flashed whenever he’s been on the field, grading out either above average or just slightly below average in each of the last 3 seasons. House reportedly is looking for 7 million dollars annually on the open market. I don’t expect him to get that, even on a weak cornerback market, but I do expect him to be starting somewhere next year to be compensated accordingly.

DE BJ Raji

BJ Raji was reportedly offered a 5-year, 40 million dollar extension two off-seasons ago, heading into his contract year, after a 2012 season in which he graded out 7th among 3-4 defensive ends, and turned it down. He has to be kicking himself now. Raji had a horrible contract year, grading out dead last among 3-4 defensive ends in 2013. As a result, he had to settle for a one-year, 4 million dollar prove it deal with the Packers, after not finding anything to his liking on the open market. Things went from bad to worse for Raji, as he tore his biceps and missed the entire 2014 season. Versatile enough to play anywhere on a 3-man defensive line, inconsistency has always been an issue for Raji. After barely playing as a rookie, he ranked 35th out of defensive tackles in 2010, had a strong playoff run en route to the Packers’ Super Bowl victory, but ranked 87th out of 88 eligible defensive tackles in 2011, before that strong 2012 campaign. Now he has a serious injury on his resume. He won’t have a big market this off-season.

DT Letroy Guion

With Raji out for the season, Guion started 15 games at nose tackle, but he struggled, grading out 61st out of 81 eligible defensive tackles. This is nothing new for him. He’s graded out below average in 6 of 7 seasons since he came into the league as a 5th round pick in 2008, including 5 straight. In 2012, he ranked 86 out of 86th eligible defensive tackles and in 2013 he was 60th out of 69 eligible. Especially after getting arrested for possession of marijuana and a firearm this off-season, he won’t draw big market.

Cap Casualty Candidates

MLB Brad Jones

Brad Jones was drafted in the 7th round in 2009 by the Packers as an outside linebacker, but, after playing a combined 763 snaps in the first 3 years of his career at outside linebacker, the Packers moved him inside in 2012 and he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked middle linebacker on 687 snaps. That earned him a 3-year, 11.75 million dollar deal, but he’s been a massive disappointment since signing that deal, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 28th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible in 2013 and playing just 211 snaps in 2014. In 2014, no one played fewer snaps and graded out worse than Jones at middle linebacker. He’s not a serious candidate to be a starter inside next season so the Packers will probably let him go to save 3.75 million in cash and cap space for 2015.

MLB AJ Hawk

AJ Hawk has made 139 starts for the Packers since they drafted him 5th overall in 2006, but he’s only graded out above average once on Pro Football Focus in their 8 year history and the Packers have cut his salary and renegotiated his contract several times. He might be at the end of his line with the Packers, going into his age 31 season. He came off the bench 3 times last season, the first time he played in a game in which he wasn’t a starter in his career, and he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 52nd ranked middle linebacker out of 60 eligible. The Packers can save 3.5 million in cash and cap space by letting him go this off-season.

OLB Mike Neal

Mike Neal, a 2010 2nd round pick, started his career as an oft used 3-4 defensive end, but the Packers moved him to 3-4 outside linebacker for 2013, a weird move considering his 6-3 294 pound size. Neal struggled in his first season at outside linebacker, grading out 40th out of 42 eligible, but the Packers gave him a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal last off-season. He wasn’t better in 2014, grading out 46th out of 46 eligible. With Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, and Nick Perry all under contract for 2015, the Packers don’t need to bring Neal back at a non-guaranteed 3 million dollar salary. They’d save that entire amount on the cap by letting him go this off-season.

OLB Julius Peppers

When the Packers signed Julius Peppers to a 3-year, 26 million dollar deal last off-season, it was more of a 1-year, 8.5 million dollar prove it deal for an aging future Hall-of-Famer, who graded out below average in 2013 with the Bears and got released. That was all that was guaranteed in that deal. Peppers certainly did prove it, flashing vintage form in his first experience in a 3-4 as a much needed edge rusher opposite Clay Matthews. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker. Still, he’s going into his age 35 season so he’s no guarantee to be back at his non-guaranteed 9.5 million dollar salary for 2015. The Packers could save 7 million on the cap by letting him go this off-season and have him off their cap completely for 2016. A restructured deal is also an option.

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Indianapolis Colts 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Colts, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Running Back

The Colts thought they were set at running back when they traded a 2014 1st round pick for Trent Richardson, who went 3rd overall in 2012. That pick ended up being 26th overall and you could argue the Colts were buying low on Richardson at the time, but it turns out Cleveland sold them a dud. Richardson has rushed for 977 yards and 6 touchdowns on 316 carries (3.09 YPC) in his 2 years with the Colts. He also has had issues with the coaching staff, which got him suspended for their playoff game against New England and the first week of next season. The Colts will try to get out of his fully guaranteed contract for 2015, but even if they don’t, I expect them to just let him go and eat the money. They don’t see Richardson as being worth their 53 man roster. Ahmad Bradshaw led the Colts in total yards per game by a running back last year and was a fantastic overall player. He rushed for 425 yards and 2 touchdowns on 90 carries (4.72 YPC) and added 38 catches for 300 yards and 6 more touchdowns through the air. However, he went down for the season with a season ending injury once again. Bradshaw has had injury problems his whole career, missing 25 games in the last 4 seasons combined. He’s also a free agent going into his age 29 season. They can’t trust he’ll be their lead back again 2015. Boom Herron rushed for 4.50 YPC on 78 regular season carries, but saw that figure dip to 3.78 YPC on 45 post-season carries. He also fumbled 4 times on 166 touches in the regular and post-season combined. He’s best as a complementary #2 back behind another back they add this off-season. They’ve been linked to Frank Gore, DeMarco Murray, and a reunion with Ahmad Bradshaw. It’s also a deep running back draft.

Center

AQ Shipley began the season as the starting center and, even though Pro Football Focus gave him positive marks, he was benched for undrafted rookie Jonotthan Harrison. Shipley is expected to be non-tendered as a restricted free agent this off-season. Harrison played about as you’d expect from an undrafted rookie, grading out 35th out of 41 eligible. Khaled Holmes was drafted in the 4th round in 2013 to be the center of the future, but he’s struggled on 193 snaps thus far in his career. Help is needed at the position.

Guard

Jack Mewhort did a solid job as a rookie, grading out about average in 14 starts, 13 at left guard and one at right tackle. He should be locked in as the starter at left guard going into 2015. However, right guard is a huge hole. Lance Louis and Hugh Thornton split time there last season and, despite limited action, graded out 62nd and 48th respectively out of 78 eligible guards on Pro Football Focus. Louis has struggled throughout his career, never grading out above average in any season since entering the league in 2009, was out of the league entirely in 2013, and now is going into his age 30 season. Thornton, meanwhile, has shown nothing since the Colts drafted him in the 3rd round in 2013, struggling last year and grading out 69th out of 81 eligible on 889 snaps as a rookie. Neither one is a long-term starting option and the same is true of Donald Thomas, who has played 2 games over the last 2 seasons thanks to injury and could be a cap casualty this off-season. They need to find a long-term starter this off-season.

Outside Linebacker

Robert Mathis had a strong 2013 season, but he missed all of 2014 with a torn Achilles and he’ll be in his age 34 season in 2015. It’s very possible he’s near the end of the line. The Colts predictably didn’t get any pass rush in his absence, as Bjoern Werner was inconsistent in his 2nd season in the league, after being drafted in the first round in 2013, and Erik Walden also struggled. Both players graded out below average. Edge rush is a need. The connection between Chuck Pagano, former Ravens’ offensive coordinator, and Pernell McPhee, a top free agent edge rusher formerly of the Ravens, is obvious.

Cornerback

Vontae Davis and Greg Toler seem locked in as the Colts’ starting cornerbacks for 2015, even though the latter graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 99th ranked cornerback out of 108 eligible in 2014. However, they need to add depth at the position and competition for Toler as #3 cornerback Darius Butler is a free agent this off-season and might not be back. He’s graded out below average in each of the last 2 seasons, so maybe they should bring in an upgrade in his place.

Defensive End

Arthur Jones had a rough first year in Indianapolis, after signing a 5-year, 33 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season. Jones missed 7 games with injury and struggled when on the field, grading out 40th out of 47 eligible 3-4 defensive ends on just 371 snaps. He could bounce back in his 2nd season with the Colts in 2015, but Cory Redding, arguably their best defensive lineman, is a free agent going into his age 35 season this off-season. If he retires or leaves as a free agent, they’ll need to replenish depth. Adding more depth isn’t a bad idea either way.

Wide Receiver

TY Hilton is arguably one of the best receivers in the game and Donte Moncrief is a promising 2014 3rd round pick who will have a bigger role in his 2nd year in the league after flashing as a rookie, but the Colts need depth at the position. Hakeem Nicks and Reggie Wayne are both coming off of awful seasons in which they graded out 105th and 106th respectively out of 110 eligible wide receivers. Both are free agents and I don’t expect either one to be back. They’ve already said that they won’t be bringing Wayne back. That will leave them devoid of wide receivers with any sort of experience after Hilton.

Safety

La’Ron Landry was a starter for the Colts at safety going into last season, but he was suspended for 4 games due to performance enhancing drugs and didn’t regain his starting job upon return. He graded out slightly above average on 417 snaps, but he was below average on 799 snaps in the first year of his 4-year, 24 million dollar deal in 2013. He’s a cap casualty candidate, while Mike Adams and Sergio Brown, who finished the season as the starters, are both free agents this off-season, Adams going into his age 34 season. Depending on what happens at this position this off-season, this could be somewhere they need to add.

Offensive Tackle

Gosder Cherilus will be back in 2015 in the 3rd year of a 5-year, 34.5 million dollar deal he signed two off-seasons ago. The Colts would take a 1.8 million dollar cap hit by letting him go. However, Cherilus graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 70th ranked offensive tackle out of 84 eligible on the right side this season and finished the season on IR with a groin and shoulder injury and had off-season knee surgery. Cherilus is going into his age 31 season and the Colts need competition for the injury prone player who struggled in 2014.

Key Free Agents

S Mike Adams

Mike Adams has been in the league for 11 years, since 2004, but last season was arguably the best of his career, as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked safety and made the first Pro-Bowl of his career. This is the same guy whose career looked like it could have been over until the Colts signed him in June of last off-season. He’s going into his age 34 season and anyone who signs him this off-season can’t expect him to repeat the best season of his career again, but he was a solid starter in 2011, 2012, and 2013, grading out above average in 2011 and 2012 and only slightly below average in 2013. He should still be considered a starting caliber safety for 2015. There’s reportedly a lot of mutual interest between Adams and the Colts in a reunion.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw

Bradshaw’s 4.60 career YPC is very impressive and he’s also very useful on passing downs, both as a pass catcher and a pass blocker. However, injuries have been a serious problem for him. He’s always dealt with nagging injuries throughout his career, only playing all 16 games once in 8 seasons, but over the past 4 seasons they’ve especially cost him, as he’s missed 25 games combined in that time period. Last season, he was off to a great start to his season, rushing for 425 yards and 2 touchdowns on 90 carries (4.72 YPC) and added 38 catches for 300 yards and 6 more touchdowns through the air. However, he broke his ankle and missed the final 6 games of the season. Despite just 391 snaps, he was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked running back overall. Going into his age 29 season, Bradshaw is a serious injury risk, but he could be a solid buy low candidate on a buyer’s market for running backs.

DE Cory Redding

Redding was arguably the best defensive lineman the Colts had last season, at least he was in terms of Pro Football Focus grade. He finished the season as their 18th ranked 3-4 defensive end, struggling against the run (just like the rest of the front 7), but getting good pass rush. The problem is he’s going into his age 35 season so it’s hard to trust him going forward. The 12-year veteran also had a strong season in 2013, grading out 11th at his position, but he ranked 27th out of 34 eligible in 2012 and could regress to that level in 2015 given his age. Still, he’s graded out above average in 3 of the last 4 seasons and he won’t break anyone’s bank so he’ll be a solid, cheap signing for a team with a need on the defensive line. There’s mutual interest between him and the Colts in a reunion. A reunion with his former team the Baltimore Ravens, who have a depth need on the defensive line, is another option.

S Sergio Brown

Sergio Brown was an undrafted free agent out of Notre Dame in 2010 and flashed on 94 snaps as a rookie with the Patriots. As a result he was given a starting job in 2011, but quickly lost it for poor performance and went on to play just 61 snaps over the next 2 seasons, both with Indianapolis. However, Brown got another chance at a starting job in 2014 when Laron Landry got suspended and made the most of it, playing well and keeping the job after Landry’s return. All in all, he made 8 starts and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 24th ranked safety. He might get some looks as a starter on the open market this off-season, but any team that signs him needs to remember his history prior to 2014 isn’t great.

CB Darius Butler

Butler was a 2nd round bust of the Patriots in 2009 and bounced around from the Patriots to the Panthers to the Colts by 2012. Butler graded out below average in 2 of his first 3 seasons in the league, but had the best season of his career in 2012 with the Colts, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 31st ranked cornerback on 380 snaps, earning a 2-year deal worth 4 million that off-season. Butler remained inconsistent though, grading out below average in each of the last 2 seasons. Butler has never played more than 704 snaps in a season, averages 501 snaps a season, and has graded out below average in 4 of 6 seasons in the NFL. He’s a purely a depth cornerback and should come cheap this off-season.

WR Hakeem Nicks

Nicks is only going into his age 27 season, but he’s had a swift fall from grace thanks to leg injuries and will have a hard time finding work this off-season. Nicks, a 2009 1st round pick, looked like one of the best young receivers in the NFL from 2009-2011. He averaged 2.30 yards per route run in 2009 on 344 routes run, 2.32 yards per route run in 2010 on 453 routes run, and 2.08 yards per route run in 2011 on 572 routes run. However, those averages fell to 1.74 yards per route run on 398 routes run in 2012 and 1.70 yards per route run on 527 routes run in 2013. He was forced to settle for a 1-year, prove it deal with the Colts last off-season, worth 3.6 million, and he didn’t even come close to being worth that in easily the worst season of his career. Nicks was Pro Football Focus’ 105th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible. He caught 38 passes for 405 yards and 4 touchdowns on 68 attempts (55.9%) and 425 routes run (0.95 yards per route run). He was benched down the stretch for rookie Donte Moncrief and saw just 17 snaps in the AFC Championship. Injuries have completely sapped his explosiveness. He’ll have to settle for another one-year deal this off-season and won’t come close to getting 3.6 million.

WR Reggie Wayne

Reggie Wayne has had a fantastic career could be bound for the Hall-of-Fame, but when he suffered a torn ACL in the middle of his age 35 season in 2013, it was a death sentence for his career. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. It looks like Wayne’s last 1000 yard season will be 2012, looking back at his career. His 2013 and 2014 seasons were the two lowest yardage totals of his career since 2003. It was understandable in 2013, as he only played 7 games, but in 2014 he played 13 and just did not even resemble himself. He caught 64 passes for 779 yards and 2 touchdowns on 110 attempts (58.2%) and 570 routes run (1.37 yards per route run) and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 106th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible. Going into his age 37 season, Wayne has already been told by the Colts that he will not be back in 2015. He reportedly wants to keep playing, but the call might never come.

Cap Casualty Candidates

RB Trent Richardson

Trent Richardson’s tenure with the Colts went about as bad as it could have. After they acquired him mid-season in 2013 for what turned out to be the 26th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Richardson rushed for 977 yards and 6 touchdowns on 316 carries (3.09 YPC) in his 2 years with the Colts. He also has had issues with the coaching staff, which got him suspended for their playoff game against New England and the first week of next season. The Colts will try to get out of his fully guaranteed contract for 2015, but even if they don’t, I expect them to just let him go and eat the money. They don’t see Richardson as being worth their 53 man roster.

OLB Shaun Phillips

The Titans signed Phillips to a 2-year, 4.5 million dollar deal last off-season, but ended up waiving him mid-season after he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 43rd ranked 3-4 outside linebacker out of 46 eligible on 362 snaps. No one played fewer snaps and graded out worse at his position. The Colts claimed him on waivers, but he played 98 nondescript snaps for the Colts. He’s not worth the 2.65 million non-guaranteed he’s owed next season and the Colts can save that entire amount on the cap by letting him go.

G Donald Thomas

The Colts signed Thomas to a 4-year, 14 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, which looked like a good idea at the time as Thomas graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 21st ranked guard in 2012 in 7 starts with the Patriots and looked like a budding starter. However, Thomas played just 72 snaps in 2 seasons with the Colts, missing 30 games with injury. The Colts can save 3.25 million on the cap and 3.5 million in cash this off-season by letting him go.

S LaRon Landry

The Colts signed Landry to a 4-year, 24 million dollar deal two off-season, but Landry graded out below average in 2013 on 799 snaps (he missed 4 games with injury). He entered 2014 as the starter, but lost his starting job after he got suspended for 4 games for performance enhancing drugs. He overall graded out above average on 417 snaps in 2014 and Mike Adams and Sergio Brown, who ended the season as the starters, are both free agents, and the Colts aren’t in dire need of cap space, but they could still cut Landry to save 2.25 million in cap space and 4 million in cash this off-season. He’ll also be off their cap entirely next off-season if they do that, which could help them extend Andrew Luck long-term. He’s going into his age 31 season in 2015 anyway.

OLB Robert Mathis

Robert Mathis graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013, as he led the NFL in sacks with 19, but he missed all of 2014 with a torn Achilles and is now going into his age 34 season. The Colts gave him a 1-year, 4 million dollar extension mid-season to keep him from being a free agent this off-season, but it was really more of an option for them because it didn’t give him any guaranteed money. The Colts could cut Mathis this off-season and save 4 million in cash and cap space. They probably won’t do that, but he reportedly had a setback with his recovery (no surprise given his age) and there’s a chance they could pull the trigger at some point.

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Green Bay Packers re-sign WR Randall Cobb

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Packers, Uncategorized

Earlier this week, the reports said that the Packers were unwilling to move past 8-9 million dollars annually for Cobb and that Cobb would likely leave and take a contract worth 11-12 million dollars in Oakland. It appears the two sides have come to a compromise right in the middle at 10 million annually and, in this case, this is the type of compromise where both sides win. Cobb takes less money than he would have gotten elsewhere, but he still gets 40 million over 4 years and he gets to continue playing with arguably the best quarterback in the NFL.

In Oakland, he would have likely struggled to put up numbers on a losing team and could have easily been cut midway through his contract for not putting up numbers comparable to his large salary. In Green Bay, he’s much more likely to be kept for the duration of the contract and he’ll hit free agency again in 4 years going into his age 29 season with a chance at another big payday. Even though he took less money to return to Green Bay, this deal likely maximizes his career earnings potential.

In that way, Cobb was the real winner here, but the Packers have to be pretty happy with the deal too. They aren’t getting Cobb quite as cheaply as they would have liked earlier in the week, but they’re still getting a discount over what he would have gotten on the open market and a solid value. While it’s not hard to get good production out of receivers when you have Aaron Rodgers under center, Cobb is still a very valuable part of this offense.

Cobb didn’t see a ton of playing time as a 2nd round rookie in 2011 and he missed 10 games with a broken leg in 2013, but in his other two seasons, he’s put up 80/954/8 and then career high numbers in 2014, 91/1287/12 as a starting receiver opposite Jordy Nelson on arguably the best offense in the NFL. Rodgers was a big part of that, but Cobb was also Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked wide receiver last season and he was 11th in 2012. Other than the leg injury, he doesn’t have much of an injury history and he’s only going into his age 25 season so he could keep getting better. This isn’t spectacular value or anything, but this is a good move for the Packers.

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New Orleans Saints re-sign RB Mark Ingram

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Saints, Uncategorized

Mark Ingram rushed for 964 yards and 9 touchdowns on 226 carries (4.27 YPC) is 2014, but he’s a one year wonder who rushed for 1462 yards and 11 touchdowns on 356 carries (4.11 YPC) in his first 3 seasons combined, after the Saints drafted him in the 1st round in 2011. On top of that, his injury history is concern (14 games missed in 4 seasons) and he doesn’t contribute as a pass catcher (53 catches in 4 seasons). The Saints aren’t breaking the bank for Ingram on this 4-year, 16 million dollar deal, but this is still a fairly significant chunk of change in a league where the running back position is as devalued as it’s ever been. On top of that, the Saints have arguably the worst cap situation in the NFL and probably would have been better off letting Ingram walk and using the younger, cheaper Khiry Robinson in tandem with a rookie in 2015. I don’t hate the move, but it’s not one I would have made.

Grade: C+

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Houston Texans re-sign CB Kareem Jackson

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Texans, Uncategorized

Kareem Jackson was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked cornerback in 2014 and he’s not a one year wonder, because he graded out 12th among cornerbacks in 2012 as well. However, he’s graded out below average in his other 3 seasons in the NFL, including each of his first two seasons after the Texans drafted him in the first round in 2010. There’s two ways to look at this. One is to see him as an inconsistent player. The other is to see him as someone who got off to a slow start in his career, but has generally been good since then.

This deal, 34 million over 4 years, with 20 million guaranteed is about what I expected him to get this off-season, but, as I said in the Texans’ off-season preview, any deal he was going to be given this off-season was going to be a risky move. I stand by that and I would not have guaranteed him that much money. I understand why the Texans made this move and the contract wasn’t completely inappropriate or anything, but I don’t love the move because of his past inconsistencies.

Grade: B-

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Denver Broncos 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Broncos, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Offensive Tackle

Ryan Clady missed essentially the whole 2013 season with a foot injury, but Chris Clark played well in Ryan Clady’s absence in 2013 and the Broncos were very excited about their offensive line with Clady returning in 2014. They moved Clark to right tackle and Orlando Franklin inside to left guard, where he would replace the overrated Zane Beadles, who signed in Jacksonville. However, the only player who really worked out was Franklin, who played well in his first season at left guard. Clady graded out slightly below average in his first season back. He’ll be given another chance in 2015, but the Broncos need right tackle help. Chris Clark graded out 52nd out of 84 eligible before being benched. Louis Vasquez moved from right guard to right tackle and played alright, but he’s one of the league’s best guards so they should keep him there long-term. Finding a new right tackle who could possibly play left tackle in 2016 and beyond should be a priority of their off-season and somewhere they could go in the first round.

Tight End

Julius Thomas and Virgil Green were #1 and #2 on the Broncos in snaps played by tight ends, but both are free agents this off-season. Green could easily be back, but he’s only a blocking tight end. Julius Thomas has been their primary pass catching tight end over the past 2 seasons, but he’s not expected to be back as a free agent. Finding a pass catching replacement will be a need this off-season, assuming he does, in fact, leave.

Defensive Tackle

The Broncos will be moving from a 4-3 to a 3-4 under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. They have good personnel for it. DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller will play outside linebacker. Malik Jackson, Derek Wolfe, and Sylvester Williams will rotate at defensive end. Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevathan will be the middle linebackers. Their only hole is nose tackle. Re-signing Terrance Knighton would fill that hole, but it sounds like he’s going to chase the money and go elsewhere. He probably wants to play in a 4-3 that would give him more pass rush opportunities anyway. Finding a true nose tackle will be on the Broncos’ list this off-season.

Center

Manny Ramirez struggled last season at both center and right guard. If he’s back as a starter at center next season, it will be at a position where he graded out 28th out of 41 eligible in 2014 in 8 starts. He’s also going into his age 33 season. They should try to find an upgrade. He could also be a cap casualty, a move that would save them 3 million in cash and cap space in 2015. Will Montgomery played well at center in his absence last season, but he’s a free agent and he’s also aging, going into his age 32 season.

Safety

Rahim Moore is a free agent. With the Broncos having already committed significant money to Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, and TJ Ward in their secondary, it’s widely assumed they won’t outbid the highest bidders on the open market and that Moore will not be back in Denver. They’ll need to find a replacement safety in that case.

Guard

As I mentioned earlier, I expect the Broncos to move Louis Vasquez back to right guard in 2015, not because he was bad at right tackle, but because he’s so much better at right guard. However, the Broncos will still have a problem at guard if left guard Orlando Franklin leaves as a free agent, which he could easily do.

Wide Receiver

Wes Welker is not expected back as a free agent, going into his age 34 season, coming off of a down season thanks to age and injury. 2014 2nd round pick Cody Latimer will play a bigger role in his absence, with Emmanuel Sanders picking up more snaps in the slot. The bigger issue would be if, for whatever reason, the Broncos don’t bring back Demaryius Thomas, as they’d have to find some way to replace him. He’s widely expected to be franchise tagged though so that almost definitely won’t be an issue. Thomas, Sanders, and Latimer are expected to be their top-3 wide receivers in 2015.

Key Free Agents

WR Demaryius Thomas

Demaryius Thomas has put up absurd numbers over the past 3 seasons, playing all 48 games, catching 297 passes for 4483 yards and 35 touchdowns. Playing with Peyton Manning at quarterback and being a target monster has definitely helped him, but he’s graded out 2nd, 5th, and 5th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in his own right in 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively. No other wide receiver has graded out in the top-5 in all 3 of those seasons. The 2010 1st round pick was also productive with Tim Tebow in 2011, as he had 35 catches for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns in his final 7 games, including playoffs. That’s 80 catches for 1703 yards and 9 touchdowns extrapolated over 16 games. Along with Antonio Brown and Calvin Johnson, you can make a case for him as the best wide receiver in football. He’s widely expected to be franchise tagged so he’ll be back in 2015. He’s also a candidate for a massive long-term deal.

DT Terrance Knighton

Knighton was a 3rd round pick by the Jaguars in 2009. He started 49 games in 4 seasons with the Jaguars, but ended up grading out slightly below average in all 4 seasons. Knighton signed a 2-year, 4.5 million dollar deal with the Broncos in his first trip to free agency two off-seasons ago, a move that paid off in a big way for the Broncos. Knighton proved to be a late bloomer, grading out 9th in 2013 and proving himself again in 2014, grading out 12th. The 6-3 330 pounder is a fierce run stopper and can rush the passer as well. His 2nd trip to the open market should be much more lucrative than his first and he’s expected to be priced out of the Broncos’ budget. He’ll probably want to stay in a 4-3 where he can get more pass rush opportunities anyway and the Broncos are moving to a 3-4 and need more of a true nose tackle. A reunion with Jack Del Rio in Oakland makes a lot of sense. The Raiders have a ton of cap space and a huge need at defensive tackle and Knighton has played his entire career with Del Rio, first when he was Jacksonville’s head coach and then when he was Denver’s defensive coordinator. Del Rio is now the head coach in Oakland.

TE Julius Thomas

Julius Thomas played 50 snaps in his first 2 seasons in the league, catching 1 pass, after the incredibly athletic former basketball player was drafted in the 4th round in 2011. He broke out in 2013, catching 65 passes for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns, but he was limited by injuries in 2014, catching 43 passes for 489 yards and 12 touchdowns in 13 games. Thomas is a poor run blocker, has never played all 16 games in a season, and a lot of his passing game production was the result of getting to play with Peyton Manning. He’s a candidate to be overpaid on the open market this off-season.

G Orlando Franklin

Orlando Franklin has started 63 games since the Broncos drafted him in the 2nd round in 2011, 47 at right tackle from 2011-2013 and 16 at left guard last season. His versatility will serve him well on the open market, as will his abilities, as he’s graded out above average in each of the last 3 seasons, 12th among offensive tackles in 2012, 17th among offensive tackles in 2013, and 13th among guards in 2014. He should make upwards of 6+ million dollars on his next deal. Zane Beadles, another former Bronco offensive lineman, got 5-year, 30 million from the Jaguars last off-season. I think Franklin is a better player and that deal will be a floor for what he’ll get this off-season.

S Rahim Moore

Rahim Moore struggled as a rookie, but he had a fantastic 2012 season (the gaffe in the playoff loss to Baltimore aside), grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked safety. He still looked like one of the league’s better young safeties going into his 3rd year in the league in 2013, but he was only a league average starting safety that year before going down for the season with a frightening, rare injury that almost cost him his leg and his life. Moore returned in 2014, but was once again only an average starter. It’s obviously great that Moore has been able to resume his life and his career, but he goes to the open market as only a league average starter. He’ll make a good amount of money in a weak safety market though.

C Will Montgomery

With the Redskins, Montgomery graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked center in 2011, 5th in 2012, and 15th in 2013. However, he was still released by the Redskins last off-season with a new regime coming in with a new blocking scheme and he only got a cheap, 1-year deal from the Broncos. Montgomery made 8 starts down the stretch for the Broncos and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked center. He’s going into his age 32 season and he’s not a good fit for a power blocking scheme, but he deserves to be a starter somewhere in the NFL in 2015. A return to Denver could make sense as Gary Kubiak is a Mike Shanahan disciple and Montgomery had his best years under Shanahan in Washington.

TE Virgil Green

Green, a 2011 5th round pick, has played 1127 snaps in the last 4 seasons combined, serving as a valuable run blocking tight end, grading out above average as a run blocker in all 4 seasons. However, he’s graded out below average in 3 of those 4 seasons in pass catching grade, totaling 23 catches for 206 yards and a touchdown. He’ll come cheap this off-season and could easily return to the Broncos as a blocking specialist.

WR Wes Welker

Once again, the Patriots cut ties with a player at the perfect time. Letting Welker go looked like a mistake in 2013, when the Broncos were breaking records and beat the Patriots easily in the AFC Championship, but that was largely because of Peyton Manning’s huge season, Julius Thomas’ breakout year, and the loss of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez by the Patriots. Obviously, that script flipped in 2014. Overall, over the course of his 2-year, 12 million dollar deal, Welker caught 122 passes for 1242 yards and 12 touchdowns, missing 5 games with injury. His replacement in New England, Julian Edelman, had 197 catches for 2028 yards and 10 touchdowns over that time period. Statistically, Welker had the worst season of his career since 2005 last season, catching 49 passes for 464 yards and 2 touchdowns. Now he hits free agency, going into his age 34 season, with a serious concussion history, and coming off an awful season and the Broncos have already said they won’t be bringing him back. If he decides to keep playing, it’ll be on a cheap, one-year deal and he could have to wait a while. Retirement, either unforced or forced, is another possibility.

Cap Casualty Candidates

C Manny Ramirez

Ramirez struggled at both guard and center last season, including 28th out of 41 eligible centers in 8 starts. He’s been better in the past, but he’s going into his age 33 season. If the Broncos aren’t planning on bringing him back as a starter at any position, they’ll probably cut him and save 3 million in cash and cap space, which will be very valuable, given how many free agents they have to either lock up or replace.

OT Ryan Clady

Clady will probably be back, but moving on from him wouldn’t be a terrible move. He missed 14 games with a foot injury in 2013 and wasn’t the same in 2014, grading out below average. The Broncos can save 10 million in cash and 8.8 million on the cap by letting him go. He’s a good fit for new Head Coach Gary Kubiak’s blocking zone scheme, so, more likely, he’ll be given a chance to bounce back in 2015 and cut before 2016 if he struggles again.

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Dallas Cowboys re-sign OT Doug Free

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Free was going to be a risky signing anywhere he went, as he’s going into his age 31 season and he struggled mightily in 2011 and 2012, to the point where he was briefly benched down the stretch in 2012. He graded out 51st out of 76 eligible in 2011 and 68th out of 80 eligible in 2012. However, those two seasons were sandwiched in between 4 seasons in which he graded out above average, including 20th in 2013 and 21st in 2014. The 8-year veteran has made 83 starts for the Cowboys over the past 6 seasons and has generally played well. This 3-year, 15 million dollar deal also doesn’t have any guaranteed money after the first year, in which he’ll be guaranteed 6 million, so it’s fairly low risk. This is a good value for Free.

Grade: A-

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Houston Texans re-sign OT Derek Newton

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Texans, Uncategorized

If Newton plays like he did last season, he’s worth this deal, which will pay him 26.5 million over 5 years and essentially guarantees him 13.5 million over 2 years (only 10 million is actually guaranteed, but they’re unlikely to cut him after one year with guaranteed money still owed in 2016). In 2014, Newton graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked offensive tackle, grading out below average in pass protection, but excelling in the run game, grading out 4th at that aspect in 2015.

This issue, in addition to his struggles in pass protection, is the 2011 7th round pick is a one-year wonder. Newton has started 46 games over the past 3 seasons, but he was horrible in both 2012 and 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus 64th ranked offensive tackle out of 80 eligible in 2012 and 72nd out of 76 eligible in 2013. Given that, this is a very risky deal, but it could be worth it as Newton was an important part of this line in 2014.

Grade: C+

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