Month: March 2015

Denver Broncos sign G Shelley Smith

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Broncos, Uncategorized

This isn’t the Shelley Smith who is (used to be?) an unattractive female reporter for ESPN. This is the Shelley Smith that could easily be the Broncos’ starting left guard in 2015. The Broncos aren’t paying Smith much (5.65 million over 2 years), but it’s still too much for him (especially since the Dolphins cut him this off-season to save 2.75 million) and he’s not a starting caliber player. The Dolphins signed Shelley Smith to a 2-year, 5.5 million dollar deal last off-season, but he only played 367 snaps, despite terrible play on the Dolphins’ offensive line all season. Despite holes on the offensive line, the Dolphins cut him this off-season, even though his salary wasn’t that much. That’s because Smith himself was also terrible, grading out 54th out of 78 eligible despite the limited playing time.

Smith has maxed out at 371 snaps (in 2013) and played 1098 snaps total in his 5-year career. Smith flashed in 2013 on those 371 snaps, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 23rd ranked guard despite the limited playing time, so he’s flashed. However, in 2012, he graded out 55th out of 81 eligible on just 360 snaps and he was just a 6th round pick in 2010. He didn’t play a single offensive snap in the first 2 years of his career and, of course, he struggled last season. Broncos’ head coach Gary Kubiak was with the Texans when they drafted him in 2010 so maybe he thinks he’ll be a good fit for his blocking scheme, but the fact that he never played a snap for the Texans in 2010 and 2011 and was a final cut in 2012 suggests otherwise. Hopefully the Broncos add competition for him through the draft.

Grade: C+

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Atlanta Falcons sign OLB Brooks Reed

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Falcons, Uncategorized

Brooks Reed will boost the Falcons’ run defense, but he’s not the edge rusher they need and the edge rusher they’re paying him like, giving him 22.5 million over 5 years with 9 million guaranteed. Reed, a 2011 2nd round pick, has graded out above average in 3 of the 4 seasons he’s been in the league, making 54 starts in the process. The only exception was 2013, when he graded out 41st out of 42 eligible players. However, Reed has graded out negatively as a pass rusher in all 4 seasons, doing his best work against the run and, to a lesser extent, in coverage. The Falcons will probably play him in the Bruce Irvin role in their Seattle style defense and ask him to rush the passer off the edge in sub packages. That’s not his strength.

Grade: B-

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Atlanta Falcons sign OLB Justin Durant

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Falcons, Uncategorized

Justin Durant was drafted in the 2nd round in 2007 and has quietly had a very solid career, grading out above average in 7 of the 8 seasons he’s been in the NFL. However, he’s averaged just 585 snaps per season, often playing as purely a two-down run stopper, a role he excels in. Over the past 2 seasons, he’s played just a combined 538 snaps (missing 16 of 32 games with injury) and he’s going into his age 30 season, coming off a torn biceps. Given that, the Falcons are overpaying a little bit with this 3-year, 10.8 million dollar deal, though only 3 million is guaranteed, but he could end up being worth it. I’m not sure he’s quite the every down linebacker they might ask him to be (either at outside linebacker or middle linebacker), but he’s showed a little bit in coverage over the past 2 seasons, grading out above average in both seasons in limited coverage snaps.

Grade: B

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Arizona Cardinals sign DE Corey Peters

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Peters tore his Achilles in 2013 at the worst possible time, in a meaningless week 16 game, just before he was set to hit free agency. Peters was forced to settle for a cheap one year deal back in Atlanta in an attempt to rehab his value and he did a decent job. He played 15 games (except week 1 when he was kept out for precautionary reasons) and graded out about average on 535 snaps. Other than that Achilles tear, he doesn’t have a significant injury history, as he’s missed just 9 games in 5 seasons combined since the Falcons drafted him in the 3rd round in 2010.

Peters struggled in the first 3 seasons of his career, grading out below average in all 3 seasons, including a 2010 season in which he graded out 62nd out of 76 eligible and a 2012 season in which he graded out 83rd out of 85 eligible, but he’s graded out right about average in each of the last 2 seasons and he’s going into his age 27 season. He has experience playing both 4-3 defensive tackle and 3-4 defensive end in Mike Nolan’s hybrid scheme. He’ll play the latter here in Arizona. This is a solid value by the Cardinals, getting him on a 3-year, 10.5 million dollar deal with 5.75 million guaranteed. The Cardinals have now signed both Cory Redding and Corey Peters with the money they freed up by letting Darnell Dockett go. Those two will rotate opposite Calais Campbell at 3-4 defensive end and will be an upgrade for the Cardinals on the defensive line.

Grade: A-

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Arizona Cardinals sign DE Cory Redding

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Cory Redding was Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2014 and their 11th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2013. The problem is he’s going into his age 35 season, so it’s hard to trust him going forward. He ranked 27th out of 34 eligible in 2012 and could regress to that level in 2015 given his age. Still, he’s graded out above average in 3 of the last 4 seasons and the Cardinals are risking very little with this 2-year, 6 million dollar deal. He’s only guaranteed a 2 million dollar signing bonus and can be cut after the season with the Cardinals only having paid him 3 million over 1 year. Compare this to the 2-year, 7.5 million dollar deal with 4 million in the first year that Arizona’s divisional rival San Francisco gave to Darnell Dockett, an aging ex-Cardinal and a significantly inferior player, and this is a very solid deal.

Grade: A

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Buffalo Bills sign WR Percy Harvin

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bills, Uncategorized

I usually like one-year deals. They are obviously relatively low risk and they keep guys motivated. Often times, they can serve as wakeup calls to players as well. I think all three of those things are true of Percy Harvin’s deal with the Bills, but 6 million dollars on a one-year deal is still a fairly big bet. Harvin has seen his star fade significantly since the Seahawks sent a 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick to the Vikings for him two off-seasons ago and gave him a 6-year, 63 million dollar deal. The good news for Harvin is he got a ring out of the deal (along with a bunch of money), but that’s where the good news ends.

He missed all but 1 game with injury in Seattle in 2013, reportedly caused locker room problems that got him kicked out of Seattle (to the Jets for a 6th round pick), and combined for 51 catches for 483 yards and a touchdown in 2014 between the Seahawks and the Jets. The Jets, unable to work out a restructured contract with him, cut him this off-season, rather than paying him a non-guaranteed 10.5 million dollar salary for 2015. This 6 million dollar salary is obviously less than that, but it’s still too much for Harvin. Even in brighter times in Minnesota, he never went over 1000 yards in a season, missed 10 games in 4 seasons with injury, and had issues at times with his coaching staff. In Buffalo, he’ll re-join ex-Jets head coach Rex Ryan and be an upgrade on the slot over Chris Hogan.

Grade: C+

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San Francisco 49ers sign RB Reggie Bush

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, 49ers, Uncategorized

Bush became a solid starter from 2011-2013 with the Dolphins and Lions, averaging 222 carries for 1026 yards and 5 touchdowns and 44 catches for 365 yards and 2 touchdowns over that time period. Those days appear behind him now though, as he heads into his age 30 season, coming off of a season where he was more of a complementary back behind Joique Bell. Bush rushed for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns on 76 carries (3.91 YPC) in 11 games and caught 40 passes for 253 yards. He fills a need at running back behind Carlos Hyde, but he’s an underwhelming signing at 2.5 million.

Grade: C

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San Diego Chargers sign S Jimmy Wilson

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chargers, Uncategorized

It’s hard to love this move as it likely means Jimmy Wilson will likely be the starter in the secondary for the Chargers in 2015. He’ll play Marcus Gilchrist’s old role as a hybrid safety/cornerback, moving to the slot in sub packages with Jahleel Addae coming in at safety. It fits his skill set as he’s versatile, playing both cornerback and safety in Miami, but I like him more as a 3rd cornerback or safety. He should be more of a 500-600 snap player than a 1000+ snap player like Gilchrist has been the last 2 seasons. He played a career high 791 snaps in 2014, as he was their primary nickel cornerback and made several starts at safety as well, with Louis Delmas getting hurt to end the season and Reshad Jones getting suspended for the start of the season. He graded out below average in 2014 though, making it twice in three seasons that he’s done that.

However, the Chargers are getting a very solid value with this 2-year, 4.25 million dollar deal with 1.25 million guaranteed. Wilson isn’t that much worse than Gilchrist, who signed a 4-year, 22 million dollar deal with the Jets. Ron Parker, a comparable talent with less experience, got 5-year, 25 million from the Chiefs and this is certainly a better deal than that one. The Chargers didn’t have a ton of cap space left after signing King Dunlap, Brandon Flowers, and Orlando Franklin to reasonable deals so I definitely don’t hate the idea of getting Wilson cheap and trying to mask his deficiencies with talented defensive backs like Eric Weddle, Brandon Flowers, and Jason Verrett.

Grade: A-

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San Francisco 49ers sign CB Shareece Wright

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, 49ers, Uncategorized

The 49ers needed starting cornerback help after losing both Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox this off-season. The problem is that Wright has proven over the past 2 seasons that he’s not a starting caliber cornerback. Wright was a 3rd round pick in 2011 and barely played in his first 2 seasons in the NFL, playing a combined 124 snaps in 2011-2012, but he’s been a starter over the last 2 seasons. In 2013, he was Pro Football Focus’ 103rd ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible.

Going into 2014, the Chargers brought in Jason Verrett in the first round of the draft and Brandon Flowers through free agency to send Wright to a #3 cornerback role, but an injury to Verrett forced Wright to play 853 snaps and make 14 starts. He once again struggled, grading out 105th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks. This is just a one-year deal, so it can’t hurt the 49ers too much, but he’s not worth 3 million over a year with another million attainable through incentives. He’s worth closer to the minimum. If the 49ers have to rely on him as a starter opposite a hopefully healthy Tramaine Brock, they’ll have serious issues in coverage this season.

Grade: C-

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New York Jets sign S Marcus Gilchrist

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jets, Uncategorized

The Jets’ plan this off-season was clearly to spend to fix their secondary. They added three new cornerbacks on big contracts, Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, and Buster Skrine, and also added Marcus Gilchrist on a big contract as a replacement for veteran free agent Dawan Landry as the starter next to promising 2014 1st round pick Calvin Pryor. Marcus Gilchrist was a 2nd round pick of the Chargers’ in 2011. He struggled in his first 2 seasons in the league at cornerback, but was moved to safety in 2013 and ended up making all 16 starts and grading out 20th at his position. Gilchrist graded out below average in 2014, grading out 72nd out of 87 eligible, but he made all 16 starts again, and I still expected him to get starting caliber money this off-season. This 4-year deal worth 22 million with 8.5 million guaranteed is an overpay, but not an egregious one.

Grade: C+

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