Month: November 2015

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Eagles, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-5)

The Eagles are only favored by 6 points here over the Buccaneers this week, after being favored by 8 points in the early line last week. I think that’s too low, as the Eagles rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Buccaneers rank 26th in rate of moving the chains. The Eagles are going to be without quarterback Sam Bradford in this one, but I’m not so sure that Mark Sanchez is much of a downgrade. Sanchez is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL and the Eagles offense has struggled this season, ranking 20th in rate of moving the chains. They’ve been carried by a defense that ranks 6th.

I can’t be confident in the Eagles for two reasons. For one, they’re missing running back Ryan Mathews and possibly left tackle Jason Peters with injury, while Tampa Bay is just missing defensive end George Johnson. The second reason is that the Eagles play in Detroit on Thanksgiving in 4 days. Favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game. The Eagles have a strong defense and should be able to cover as 6 point favorites at home here over Tampa Bay, but I’m not confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: None

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New York Jets at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (5-4) at Houston Texans (4-5)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, I think this line is probably too high at 3.5 in favor of the visiting Jets in Houston. The Texans are no pushover and have won 3 of their last 4 games, including last week in Cincinnati against the previously undefeated Bengals. They rank 15th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re likely going to be missing quarterback Brian Hoyer, who has been playing well, but their defense is solid too, ranking 12th in rate of moving the chains allowed, and TJ Yates probably isn’t a huge downgrade from Hoyer.

The Jets, meanwhile, rank 5th, though they are probably going to be without talented defensive end Sheldon Richardson. Considering close to one in four games are decided by a field goal or less, the Jets shouldn’t be favored by 3.5 here. However, the Texans are in a bad spot. Teams are 36-58 ATS since 1989 off of a road victory as 10+ point underdogs and the Texans could be overconfident after last week’s victory in Cincinnati. That win wasn’t totally fluky as the Texans are a solid team, but there were definitely some fluky aspects to it. The Texans are still the pick, but it’s a no confidence pick.

New York Jets 16 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: Houston +3.5

Confidence: None

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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bills, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (5-4) at New England Patriots (9-0)

Ordinarily, I would be all over the Patriots here. They should be favored by more than 7.5 points at home against the Bills, as they rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bills rank 21st. They’re also in a great spot, as they will be favored by 5.5 points (according to the early line) in Denver next week. Teams are 71-49 ATS before being road favorites of 4+, 43-29 ATS before being road favorites of 6+, and 29-13 ATS before being road favorites of 7+, since 2012.

However, the Patriots are so banged up that it’s hard to trust them. A week after losing running back Dion Lewis for the season with a torn ACL, the Patriots lost wide receiver Julian Edelman for likely the rest of the regular season with a broken foot last week. Those guys are such a big part of their offense that they’re almost certainly going to struggle to move the ball as well as they have thus far this season. Danny Amendola should be able to play decently in a larger role in Edelman’s absence, but he won’t be able to nearly replace both Edelman and Lewis by himself.

They obviously still have Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, but they need a 2nd and 3rd option to step up in the passing game. They get offensive tackles Sebastian Vollmer and Marcus Cannon back from injury this week, but they’re still missing left tackle Nate Solder for the year. And, on the defensive side, top linebacker Jamie Collins is out for the 3rd straight game. I’m still taking New England, but I can’t bring myself to put any money on them unless the line goes under a touchdown.

New England Patriots 30 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against the spread: New England -7.5

Confidence: Low

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Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) at San Diego Chargers (2-7)

The Chargers had their bye last week and it came at a perfect time, as it allowed them to get much healthier. Left tackle King Dunlap, left guard Orlando Franklin, tight end Antonio Gates, and safety Eric Weddle, all of whom have missed significant time with injury in recent weeks, all come out of the bye healthy. That’s great news because they’re all key players and the Chargers have been one of the most banged up teams in the league this season. They’re still missing top wide receiver Keenan Allen for the season and right guard DJ Fluker and wide receiver Malcom Floyd will join him this week, but they’re still significantly healthier than they normally are.

Despite all of their injuries, the Chargers have been a solid team this season. You wouldn’t know it from their record, as they’re 2-7, but they rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential. Their record is largely the result of a 2-5 record in games decided by a touchdown, a -5 turnover margin, a -3 return touchdown margin, a -6.6 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -6.2 net punt margin. None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team though, but rather that they have the framework of a good team and just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 6 of 9 games and could easily be 4-5, 5-4, or even 6-3. The Chiefs only rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential, so it’s surprising that they’re favored by more than a field goal here on the road in San Diego, especially considering close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. That’s enough for me to take the Chargers with confidence.

San Diego Chargers 23 Kansas City Chiefs 20 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: San Diego +3.5

Confidence: High

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Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (6-3) at Minnesota Vikings (7-2)

Aaron Rodgers is 23-12 ATS off of a loss in his career, as he typically responds well to adversity, but, now having lost 3 straight, public confidence in Rodgers is much lower than normal. This line has gone from favoring the Packers by a field goal in Minnesota to even, from the early line last week to now, a pretty significant line movement considering close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, but the public isn’t really on the Packers, as the action is pretty split.

Typically, I love fading significant line movements like that, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but I too am having a hard time being confident in the Packers. I wasn’t too worried about the Packers after their first two losses, because they were on the road in tough places to win (Denver and Carolina), but last week they lost at home for the first time since the 2013 post-season and they did it as huge home favorites against a Detroit team that is one of the worst teams in the league. They still rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, but their offense (XX) just simply isn’t the same without injured top receiver Jordy Nelson, who tore his ACL in the pre-season.

I ultimately do expect the Packers to turn it around and I do think last week’s loss was a fluke, but this is a tough spot for them to turn it around. The Vikings are a legitimate team, one that ranks 9th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, and the Packers are not the same team on the road. There’s definitely an argument to be made that we’re still getting some line value with the Vikings. They’ve faced a very easy schedule and the Packers are the toughest opponent they’ve faced this season, but neither team has beaten anyone better than Seattle or San Diego. The Packers also have to play again in 4 days on Thanksgiving. Fortunately, they’re not favored here, as favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game, but they’re a point away from being favored, so it’s worth bringing up. As much as I hate going against Rodgers off of a loss and as much as I hate not fading a significant line movement, I have to go with the Vikings for a no confidence pick this week.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Green Bay Packers 23

Pick against the spread: Minnesota PK

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (4-5) at Detroit Lions (2-7)

The Raiders get talented center Rodney Hudson back from a one game absence this week, but they’ve also lost talented edge rusher Aldon Smith for the season with a suspension. Oakland has a solid offense (8th in rate of moving the chains) and one that is still at essentially full health with Hudson returning, but their defense isn’t nearly as good and has especially struggled without talented defensive end Justin Tuck, who went down for the season around a month ago. Now without Aldon Smith, this defense gets really thin on talent behind 2nd year player Khalil Mack, free agent acquisition Dan Williams, and ageless wonder Charles Woodson.

Still, this line, in which the Raiders are favored by only a point in Detroit, is too low. Despite their very close victory in Green Bay last week, the Lions still rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential (the Raiders are 11th on the season). The Lions are also in an awful spot this week, caught in between last week’s huge, emotional upset victory and a tough home game against the Eagles on Thanksgiving 4 days after this one, in which they’re expected to be 3 point home underdogs. Teams are 36-58 ATS since 1989 off of a road victory as 10+ point underdogs, while teams are 76-119 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012.

The Lions aren’t guaranteed to be field goal home underdogs next week, but, either way, the logic still stands; it’s going to be hard for the Lions to focus on the Raiders off of such a big victory last week with such a big home game on deck, especially given that it’s in 4 days on Thanksgiving. The Lions have covered just once before their previous 10 Thanksgiving games. The Raiders, meanwhile, just have a trip to Tennessee, where they should be road favorites, on deck. I wish the Lions were favored, even if only by a point or two, as favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game, but there’s enough here for me to put money on the Raiders. They should win and we’re getting field goal protection and then some with them.

Oakland Raiders 24 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Oakland -1

Confidence: Medium

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Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (9-0)

The Panthers are one of the best teams in the NFL, ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains differential with an undefeated record, so it might be surprising that they’re only favored by 7.5 here. However, Washington is a solid opponent, ranking 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, and healthier than they’ve been all season, while Carolina is missing left guard Andrew Norwell and cornerback Charles Tillman. On top of that, the Panthers are in a terrible spot, going to Dallas in four days on Thanksgiving. Favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game.

Going off of that, because Tony Romo is now back for Dallas, the early line is even, meaning the Panthers could easily end up being underdogs. That would put the Panthers in another bad spot because favorites are just 95-168 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites (the Redskins host the Giants next week). Even if the Panthers don’t end up being underdogs, the logic still holds; The Panthers are in a bad spot with a tough road game coming up in 4 days. It’s not enough to take the Redskins with much confidence, but they should be the right side, as long as this line is a touchdown or higher.

Carolina Panthers 16 Washington Redskins 10

Pick against the spread: Washington +7.5

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (3-6) at Seattle Seahawks (4-5)

The Seahawks covered in 15 of their first 20 home games in the Russell Wilson era, but they are just 6-7 ATS since. What happened? Do they not have the same homefield advantage anymore? It’s possible, but I think two others things have contributed to that more. The first is that they’re just not the same team anymore. Back-to-back defending NFC Champions, Seattle is just 4-5 this season and ranks just 19th in rate of moving the chains differential, thanks largely to a remade offense that is not moving the chains well. They’ve had a tough schedule, losing in Green Bay and Cincinnati and at home to Arizona and Carolina, but the toughest team they’ve beaten is Dallas and, ordinarily, the Seahawks would have been able to win at least a couple of those aforementioned tough games, especially at home. Because of the fact that they’re struggling by their standards this season, they’ve been overrated by the odds makers and the public all year, which has led to them failing to cover at home this season (1-3 ATS).

The other reason why the Seahawks haven’t covered at a high rate at home over the past year and a half is because the odds makers have been pricing the Seahawks’ home dominance expensively into the line. It’s not a secret anymore. Even last year, they were just 5-4 ATS at home and they played well last season overall, better than this year. That being said, I don’t think this line is high enough. I think we can buy a little low on Seattle this week. San Francisco ranks dead last in the league in rate of moving the chains differential and the Seahawks should be favored by at least two touchdowns over them in Seattle, especially considering the fact that the 49ers are in a bad spot with a home clash against the Cardinals on deck.

San Francisco is expected to be home underdogs of 8 points in that one, according to the early line. Teams are 14-30 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs since 2012, as it can be tough to concentrate on the week and matchup in front of you with such a big home game on deck. On top of that, teams are 41-64 ATS as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs since 2012, as inferior teams with an upcoming distraction tend to get blown out by a superior team. That’s what I think will happen here. The line is big, but I’m confident enough to put money down on them. The 49ers are still awful and the Seahawks still deserve more than 3 points for homefield advantage.

Seattle Seahawks 27 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Seattle -12.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (8-1) at Arizona Cardinals (7-2)

This line has shifted significantly in the past week, as the Cardinals were favored by 3 on the early line last week, but now are favored by 4.5, following the Cardinals’ big win in Seattle and the Bengals’ home loss to the mediocre Houston Texans. Considering about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, that shift is significant. Ordinarily, I like to go against significant line movements, because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but I actually think this line is still too low.

Despite the fact that the Bengals only have one loss and the Cardinals have two, the Cardinals are a noticeably better team. In their 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence to support an evaluation of a team. The Cardinals, despite a couple losses, have been really dominant through their first 9 games, putting up a +117 point differential, despite just a +1 turnover margin on the season. The Bengals are +83 with a +3 turnover margin.

The Cardinals rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bengals “only” rank 3rd and by a significant margin, -3.48%. The Bengals might be the toughest opponent the Cardinals have faced this season, but I think the same can be said vice versa about the other side. Neither of these teams has really faced anyone tougher than the Seahawks. While the Cardinals beat the Seahawks by 7 in Seattle and won the first down battle 30-18, the Bengals needed a major comeback and overtime to beat the Seahawks in Cincinnati.

The Cardinals are a significantly better team, especially with the Bengals missing cornerback Adam Jones and defensive end Michael Johnson with injury. They’re also in a better spot, with a trip to San Francisco on deck. The early line has them as favored by 8 in San Francisco and teams are 29-13 ATS before being 7+ point road favorites since 2012. On top of that, teams are 79-41 ATS as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites since 2012. The Cardinals obviously aren’t favored by 6+ here, but they should be and the logic still holds. Significantly better teams tend to win big when they don’t have an upcoming distraction. I wish this line was 4 or lower because about 28.8% of games are decided by 4 points or fewer, but the Cardinals are definitely the right side this week. It’s just not Pick of the Week material out of fear of a backdoor cover.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -4.5

Confidence: High

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Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (7-2) at Chicago Bears (4-5)

The Broncos are in a really tough spot here this week, with probably their toughest and biggest game of the season on deck, a clash with Tom Brady and the currently undefeated New England Patriots in Denver, a game in which the Patriots are expected to be 5.5 point road favorites, per the early line. Teams tend to struggle before being huge home underdogs, as it can be tough to concentrate on the week and matchup in front of you with such a big home game on deck. Teams are 43-80 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, 22-52 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs, and 14-30 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs, since 2012. Making matters even worse is the fact that the Broncos are road favorites here in Chicago. Teams are 19-36 ATS since 2010 as road favorites before being home underdogs, as it’s understandably very hard to focus on an inferior opponent when you have such a tough upcoming game.

Speaking of the Broncos being road favorites, I think this line is way off, even with the Broncos only being favored by a point. Denver, despite their record, ranks 18th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains allowed. Their defense has been strong, ranking 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, though they haven’t been quite as good in the last 2 weeks without starting defensive end DeMarcus Ware, who will miss his 3rd straight game this week. The offense is what’s been the problem for the Broncos, as they rank 30th in rate of moving the chains.

The Broncos switch from Peyton Manning, who is old and banged up, to Brock Osweiler this week. Manning is officially listed as out with a foot injury, but he’s no lock to regain his job when healthy. He was playing so poorly (59.9%, 6.77 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions) that Osweiler could easily be an upgrade and the variance and unpredictably of an inexperienced quarterback scares me when betting against one, because I just don’t know how good they are, but Osweiler will be hamstrung by the same weak running game and offensive line as Manning.

The Bears, meanwhile, rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential and have been much better offensively with Jay Cutler healthy, as he’s playing some of the best football of his career under ex-Manning offensive coordinator Adam Gase. They move the chains at a 73.39% rate in the 7 games where Cutler has been healthy, as opposed to 56.25% in their other 2 games. Both wide receiver Alshon Jeffery and running back Matt Forte are gametime decisions for this one, ahead of a Thursday Night trip to Green Bay, but Jeffery is expected to play and Forte’s replacement, Jeremy Langford, has been strong in his absence over the past 2 weeks. I don’t like that they play again in 4 days, but their opponent this week is tough enough that they should be focused and I don’t think they should be favored by any less than 4 points. Instead, Denver is favored by 1 in a bad spot. Chicago is my Pick of the Week.

Chicago Bears 24 Denver Broncos 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Chicago +1

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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