Month: October 2022

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2)

Coming into the season, I thought the Cardinals were one of the most overrated teams in the league. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average. They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk. They’re also without top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games of the season due to a suspension.

The Cardinals have started 2-2, but they have a negative point differential at -15, despite a +4 turnover margin, third best in the league. In terms of overall efficiency, the Cardinals rank 30th, six points below average. My roster rankings don’t have them quite as bad, but they are still a couple points below average. Ordinarily, the Eagles would be an intriguing bet here, even as 5-point favorites on the road, because they are legitimately one of the best teams in the league, but they’ll be without one of their most important players, left tackle Jordan Mailata, and also they could overlook the Cardinals a little bit, with a more important divisional matchup with the Cowboys on deck next week. I’m still taking the Eagles for pick ‘em purposes, but they’re not worth betting.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -5

Confidence: Low

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (3-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-2)

All seemed lost for the Cowboys when they lost quarterback Dak Prescott for an extended period of time in a week 1 blowout home loss to the Buccaneers, but they’ve since won three straight games and are squarely in the playoff mix in the NFC, with Prescott now seemingly just a week or two away from returning. Backup quarterback Mike White hasn’t been great, leading an offense that ranks 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency, but he hasn’t made big mistakes and the Cowboys’ defense has carried them, ranking 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency. 

The Cowboys are getting healthier, even with Prescott still out, with wide receiver Michael Gallup, tight end Dalton Schultz, left guard Connor McGovern, and safety Jayron Kearse all returning from injury last week, not coincidentally their best performance of the year in a double digit win over the Commanders. Despite that, the Cowboys are still 5.5 point road underdogs in Los Angeles against the Rams this week. 

This is the toughest opponent Cooper Rush and the Cowboys have faced on the road, but the Rams are not the same team as a year ago and may still be a little overrated as defending Super Bowl Champions.The Rams’ big off-season departures were left tackle Andrew Whitworth and edge defender Von Miller, but they also lost right guard Austin Corbett and are now without starting center Brian Allen and his backup Cameron Shelton due to injury, meaning they are down three offensive linemen from a year ago. 

The Rams added Bobby Wagner on defense, which somewhat offsets the loss of Von Miller, but their attempt to replace wide receiver Odell Beckham with free agent acquisition Allen Robinson has not gone well, with Robinson continuing to struggle after a down final year in Chicago in 2021, which, coupled with their offensive line problems, have caused significant issues on the Rams’ offense. I have the Rams calculated as just 3-point home favorites over the Cowboys, so we’re getting some decent line value with the Cowboys at +5.5. It’s not enough for them to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Los Angeles Rams 20 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: Dallas +5.5

Confidence: Low

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (0-3-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)

Last week, I said the Jaguars were overrated as 6.5-point underdogs in Philadelphia and this week I think they are overrated as 7-point home favorites against the Texans. The Jaguars jumped out to a 2-1 start to this season, but they caught the Chargers and Colts when they were missing key players with injuries and lost to the Commanders, who are otherwise winless. They also have a roster that, while not as bad as a year ago, is still middling at best and, as a result, they don’t deserve to be favored by this many points against a Texans team that is also more competitive than a year ago, even if they don’t have their first win yet. My calculated line has the Jaguars favored by just 4.5, so we’re getting good line value with the visitors. There isn’t quite enough here for the Texans to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Houston +7

Confidence: Low

Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)

The Saints are just 1-3, but they’ve faced a relatively tough schedule and have the league’s worst turnover margin at -7, which is not predictive week-to-week. In terms of schedule adjusted overall efficiency, which takes into account strength of schedule and is based on yards per play and first down rate, two stats are much more predictive week-to-week, the Saints rank 11th on the season. That suggests they have a good chance to bounce back going forward. They’re also healthier this week, with safety Marcus Maye, guard Andrus Peat, and Alvin Kamara all returning after missing last week’s game.

However, the Saints are still missing top wide receiver Michael Thomas and are starting backup quarterback Andy Dalton, which is a concern even if he is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league. Even with Dalton starting and Thomas out, I thought we might still get some good line value with the Saints this week, but they are 5-point favorites against the Seahawks. My calculated line has them as 6.5-point favorites, so we are getting some line value with them, but it’s not a significant amount and it’s hard to get excited about betting the Saints at this number without their starting quarterback and top wide receiver. The Saints are my pick, but for pick ’em purposes only.

New Orleans Saints 27 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -5

Confidence: Low

Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (2-2) at Washington Commanders (1-3)

These two teams are similar in some ways. Both teams entered the year without top edge defenders, Harold Landry for the Titans and Chase Young for the Commanders. Both teams have gotten off to underwhelming starts to the season, with the Titans and Commanders ranking 25th and 21st in schedule adjusted efficiency respectively. And both teams have also been further handicapped by injuries, with the Commanders losing a pair of starting offensive linemen Chase Rouiller and Samuel Cosmi and starting wide receiver Jahar Dotson and the Titans losing starting wide receiver Treylon Burks, starting left tackle Taylor Lewan, top linebacker Zach Cunningham, starting edge defender Bud Dupree, and starting safety Amani Hooker.

Despite that and the fact that this game is in Washington, the Titans are the ones favored in this game. Even if only by a couple points, we’re getting good line value with the Commanders as underdogs. My calculated line has Washington favored by two points. I would need the full field goal for Washington to be worth betting against the spread, but the money line is a good value at +110 as the Commanders should be favored to win.

Washington Commanders 26 Tennessee Titans 24 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Washington +2

Confidence: Low

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2)

Last week Tom Brady lost in a spot in which he hardly ever loses, previously being 36-11 ATS off of a loss unless he is favored by more than a touchdown, but it wasn’t really his fault aside from a sack fumble, as the Buccaneers had a special teams fumble to lose the turnover battle by two, leading to a 41-31 Chiefs win, despite the Buccaneers averaging 6.37 yards per play and a 44.26% first down rate, as opposed to 5.42 and 34.17% for the Chiefs. 

The Buccaneers loss to the Packers the week before wasn’t really Brady’s fault either, as he was missing wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones, as well as left tackle Donovan Smith who have all since returned. Brady hasn’t lost three games in a row since back in 2002, going 9-2 ATS after two straight losses since the start of the 2003 season and it seems unlikely that streak will end this week, given who his opponent is, but covering the spread is far from automatic, as he’ll 10-point home favorites against the Falcons. 

Brady hasn’t been nearly as good at covering the spread after a loss when he’s a big favorite, though we are still getting some line value with the Buccaneers. The Falcons have been a competitive team thus far and have exceeded expectations, but they’ve overachieved their talent level a little and are missing one of their best players Kyle Pitts this week, while the Buccaneers still have one of the most complete rosters in the league when their offensive line and receiving corps are relatively healthy. 

Even with last week’s performance against the Chiefs included, the Buccaneers still rank 3rd in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency and the offense seems likely to catch up at some point, after a slow start due to injury absences. I have them as 10 points better than the Falcons, giving us a calculated line of Tampa Bay -12.5, decent line value, although not enough to bet on it, unless the line happens to drop to 9.5. If that does happen, I would consider a bet on the Buccaneers, even though I don’t love betting on Brady as this big of a favorite.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -10

Confidence: Low

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (2-2) at Minnesota Vikings (3-1)

Expected by many to be the worst team in the league, the Bears somewhat surprisingly have a couple wins at 2-2, but if you look at how they got those wins, it’s not hard to see how they could still be the worst team in the league going forward. In both of their wins, the Bears have lost the first down rate and yards per play battle, by 0.41% and 1.30 against the 49ers and by 1.39% and 0.08 against the Texans. Meanwhile, their loss to the Packers was not competitive, with the Bears losing the first down rate and yards per play battle by 10.85% and 0.71 respectively, while their other loss came to a mediocre Giants team in a game in which the Bears lost the first down rate battle by 7.94% and the yards per play battle by 0.39. 

In terms of schedule adjusted overall efficiency, which is based on first downs and yards, the Bears rank 29th, with well below average marks on offense (28th) and defense (22nd). They’re not quite the worst team in the league in that metric, but my roster rankings do have them as the worst team in the league, by a pretty significant margin, especially now that their top offensive lineman Cody Whitehair is out with injury. I don’t think this line, which has the Bears as just 7.5 point underdogs in Minnesota, fully takes into account how bad the Bears are.

This line may also underrate the Vikings too. The Vikings are 3-1, with their only loss coming to the 4-0 Eagles, and have a better offensive coaching staff and a much healthier defense than the past couple seasons. My roster rankings have the Vikings about 5 points above average and about 16 points above the dead last ranked Bears. Schedule adjusted efficiency also has a big gap between these two teams, giving the Vikings the edge by 12 points. This is a pretty big line, given that about half of games are decided by seven points or less, but, any way you look at it, the Vikings should be favored by significantly more than 7.5 points at home against the Bears, at least double digits, possibly multiple touchdowns, given the gap between these two teams. This is my pick of the Week.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Chicago Bears 10

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -7.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)

The Browns lost last week in Atlanta, but that wasn’t that surprising as the Falcons are a competitive, if underwhelming team and the Browns were missing key players on defense, most notably Myles Garrett, arguably the best edge defender in the league. Garrett will be back this week for the Browns, who, despite last week’s loss, still rank 5th in offensive efficiency and have an offense that ranks significantly above average in my roster rankings, due to their offensive line, running game, and efficient quarterback play. 

The Browns haven’t faced that tough of a schedule, but they could easily be 4-0 right now if Garrett had played last week and if they had recovered an onside kick against the Jets and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which takes into account their easy schedule, but not Garrett’s absence, the Browns rank 13th, despite last week’s loss. Despite that, the Browns are 2-point home underdogs against the Chargers, who rank just 28th in schedule adjusted efficiency. 

Four games is a small sample size and the Chargers are more talented than their rank in schedule adjusted efficiency suggests, but they’ve also had significant injury problems this season that have led to them not being as good as expected. Center Corey Linsley and cornerback JC Jackson returned last week, but left tackle Rashawn Slater and edge defender Joey Bosa took their place on the injured list, while wide receiver Keenan Allen has been out since getting hurt during their week 1 game. 

Those five aforementioned players are five of their most important and, missing what they’re missing, I have the Chargers about a point behind the Browns in my roster rankings, in addition to being 6.5 points behind them in schedule adjusted efficiency. Given that, the Browns should be favored by at least a field goal at home, so we’re getting good line value with them as home underdogs, even if only by a couple points. The Browns are worth a significant bet this week, both against the spread and on the money line.

Cleveland Browns 24 Los Angeles Chargers 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +2

Confidence: High

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (3-1) at New York Jets (2-2)

The Dolphins are 3-1, with their only loss coming on a short week last week in Cincinnati after beginning the year as the last undefeated AFC team, but they haven’t been as good as that suggests, as one of their wins came in a game against the Patriots in which they won the turnover battle by 3, but were become even in first down rate and yards per play, which are more predictive, while their other two wins came against teams in the Ravens and Bills who were dealing with significant injury problems. Even not taking those injury problems into account, the Dolphins rank just 15th in schedule adjusted efficiency, less than one point above average.

The Jets, meanwhile, are 2-2 and, while they’re not as good as their record, they may be underrated, as their decent record is widely regarded as not indicative of their level of play. They do rank just 26th in schedule adjusted overall efficiency, but that’s mostly because of an offense that ranks 29th in schedule adjusted efficiency, which I expect to improve with quarterback Zach Wilson returning from injury last week and left tackle Duane Brown returning this week. Their defense is significantly improved over last year’s dead last ranked unit, ranking 16th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency this season, as a result of off-season additions and key players returning from injury, while their special teams remain dominant, ranking 2nd in schedule adjusted efficiency, after ranking 2nd last season as well.

The Jets shouldn’t be getting more than a field goal at home against a middling Dolphins team that is starting a backup quarterback, even if Teddy Bridgewater is unlikely to be a significant dropoff from injured Tua Tagovailoa. This line might not seem that high at 3.5, but about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, with 1 in 6 games decided by exactly a field goal, and, largely as a result of that, 3.5-point underdogs cover the spread more than any other number, covering at a 53.0% rate all-time, which is actually profitable by itself. My calculated line is Jets -1, so we’re getting great line value with the host. This is one of my highest confidence picks of the week and I like the money line as well.

New York Jets 20 Miami Dolphins 19 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3.5

Confidence: High

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) at Buffalo Bills (3-1)

The Bills won a close game over the Ravens last week, but that was an anomaly for this team over the past two seasons, as they previously were 0-7 in one-score games since the start of last season, including playoffs. The flip side of that is all 14 of their wins over the past two seasons, including playoffs, came by 12 points or more, prior to last week’s 3-point victory in Baltimore. Even with last week’s win taken into account, the Bills have an average margin of victory of 22.1 points per game, leading to them ranking 1st in schedule adjusted efficiency in each of the past two seasons.

That suggests this should be another blowout for the Bills, at home against a Steelers team with a mediocre offense and a defense that is not nearly as good without TJ Watt. The Steelers are just 1-3, rank 23rd in schedule adjusted efficiency, and could be 0-4 if they didn’t win a game week one in which the Bengals turned the ball over five times and missed two makeable game winning kicks, also the only game of the season in which Watt played. That being said, this line is all the way up to 14 and this game actually could be closer than people think, for a couple reasons.

For one, the Bills are not nearly at full strength due to injury. Already without arguably their two best defensive backs Tre’Davious White and Micah Hyde, they’ll be without their third star defensive back Jordan Poyer this week, while tight end Dawson Knox and slot receiver Jamison Crowder are out and every down linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and defensive tackles Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips are highly questionable. 

The Bills are also in a tough spot with a much bigger game against the Chiefs on deck, with favorites of more than a touchdown covering at just a 42% rate all-time before facing an opponent with a winning percentage 50% higher than their current opponent, which is likely to be the case here. I can’t take the Steelers with any confidence unless all of the questionable Bills are out, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes either way, with the Bills banged up and likely to overlook this game, in between a big win against the Ravens and a game against the Chiefs next week.

Buffalo Bills 26 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +14

Confidence: None