Year: 2022

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (9-4) at Cleveland Browns (5-8)

Last week, the Ravens played their first full game without injured quarterback Lamar Jackson and I liked their chances to pull the small upset in Pittsburgh without Jackson, as the rest of this team was significantly healthier than earlier in the season, which was being overlooked because of all of the attention being paid to Jackson’s injury. Top receiving threat Mark Andrews, top running back Gus Edwards, stud left tackle Ronnie Stanley, talented defensive lineman Calais Campbell, starting edge defenders Justin Houston and Tyus Bowser, talented safeties Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams, and starting cornerback Marcus Peters have all missed time for the Ravens with injury thus far this season, but all of them played last week and will continue to play this week.

The Ravens did pull the upset in Pittsburgh last week, but they didn’t play as well as I expected, needing a +3 turnover margin to win by two, which is not predictive week-to-week, and losing both the first down rate battle (+9.67%) and yards per play battle (+1.04) by significant amounts, which are much more predictive week-to-week. With that in mind, I am less confident in the Ravens this week in Cleveland, even though they are still relatively healthy around the quarterback. In fact, I am going to take the Browns for pick ‘em purposes at -2.5 because they are at home and they are the slightly better team, so the most likely outcome of this game is the Browns winning by exactly a field goal, which would cover this spread. There’s not nearly enough here to be confident in the Browns though and, if this line was three, I would probably change my pick to the Ravens.

Update: I made some tweaks to my numbers a little bit and I like the Ravens in this game now, especially since the line has moved to +3 in some places. This is still not worth betting, but I like the Ravens a decent amount at +3, with Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson yet to get going since returning from suspension.

Cleveland Browns 24 Baltimore Ravens 23

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +3

Confidence: Low

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (8-5) at Buffalo Bills (10-3)

The Dolphins are only a couple games behind the Bills in the standings, but they have a +4 point differential and have won five of their six one-score games, while the Bills have a +132 point differential and have won three of their six one-score games. The gap between these two teams is closer than that suggests though, as the Dolphins lost all three games this season in which Tua Tagovailoa did not start and/or finish the game, including two by multiple scores.

In fact, the Dolphins’ only multi-score loss of the year with Tua Tagovailoa under center was on the road in San Francisco, against one of the most talented teams in the league. That’s relevant considering this line favors the Bills by a touchdown, which gives us some line value with the Dolphins. It’s not a significant amount though, as the Bills as the type of team that could beat the Dolphins by multiple scores like the 49ers did, especially at home in Buffalo.

The Bills haven’t been quite as dominant this season as they were last season, when all of their wins came by at least 12 points, leading to a +194 point differential that led the league, but they have played better in close games (0-5 in one-score games a year ago, leading to them having “just” a 11-6 record, despite leading the league in point differential) and their point differential this season is still the second best in the league, only six points behind the Eagles, who have benefited significantly from a league leading turnover margin of +14, which is not predictive week-to-week (Buffalo is only at +2). 

In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is more predictive, the Bills lead the league, ranking 9.5 points above average. Injuries have also been the biggest reason why the Bills haven’t been quite as dominant as a year ago and they have gotten healthier in recent weeks. A lot of attention has been paid to the absence of Von Miller and that is certainly a big loss, but the rest of this team is significantly healthier than earlier this season and Miller was not part of their team a year ago, when they led the league in point differential.

Talented safety Jordan Poyer (four games missed), starting offensive linemen Mitch Morse (two games) and Dion Dawkins (one game), stud linebackers Tremaine Edmunds (three games) and Matt Milano (one game), and talented edge defender Greg Rousseau (three games), top cornerback Tre’Davious White (ten games) are all set to play for Buffalo this week, after missing significant time with injury early in the season. I’m still taking the Dolphins for pick ‘em purposes, but my calculated line of Buffalo -6.5 doesn’t give us much line value with the Dolphins and, considering the Bills already have seven wins by more than seven points this season, it’s hard to be confident in the Dolphins at all this week, so this is one of my lowest confidence picks.

Update: After some slight tweaks to my numbers, I like the Bills in this game, but still for a no confidence pick.

Buffalo Bills 28 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -7

Confidence: None

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1) at Minnesota Vikings (10-3)

The Vikings are 10-3 and the Colts are 4-8-1, so it might come as a surprise that the Vikings are just 4-point home favorites in this game, but it makes sense. As good as the Vikings’ record is, they have had to go a ridiculous 9-0 in one score games, which is not sustainable or predictive long-term, and actually have a losing record (1-3) in games decided by more than one-score, leading to them actually having a negative point differential at -1. They have also benefitted from a +6 turnover margin (4th in the NFL), which is not sustainable or predictive week-to-week, and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is more predictive than anything, the Vikings rank just 20th, about 1.5 points below average.

The Colts, on the other hand, have a -89 point differential that is 2nd worst in the NFL, but their biggest problem has been their league worst -14 turnover margin and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, they rank 23rd, about 3 points below average, not far behind the Vikings. The Colts were blown out by 35 in their last game, prior to last week’s bye, but the Colts lost the turnover margin by four in that game, making the final score worse than it would have been otherwise and teams tend to bounce back off of blowout defeats pretty well anyway, covering the spread at a 58.9% rate after losing by 35+ points, including a 61.5% cover rate after a bye week.

That may seem counterintuitive, but teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed after a big blowout loss like that and I think all three will be the case this week, especially with the Colts having an extra week to think about their blowout loss. Also counterintuitive is the fact that teams cover the spread at a 54.1% rate when facing a team with a turnover margin that is 15+ points better than there’s, but it makes sense when you consider that turnover margins don’t have nearly as much predictive value week-to-week as most people think.

The Colts have also had several key players miss significant time due to injury this season, most notably quarterback Matt Ryan (two games missed), top offensive lineman Braden Smith (one game missed), feature back Jonathan Taylor (three games missed), top edge defender Kwity Paye (five games missed), and top linebacker Shaq Leonard (ten games missed), and all of those players have since returned except Leonard, who has barely played this season, so the Colts are coming into this week about as healthy as they’ve been all season.

All of this being said, it’s hard to bet on the Colts this week with the line being where it is, only favoring the Vikings by four. A few years ago, I suspect this line would have been seven or higher and the Colts would have been a great bet at that number, but the oddsmakers have gotten significantly smarter in recent years, with the amount of wagers being placed increasing significantly due to legalization, and, as a result, we’re not getting any value with the Colts, even if the public is underrating them and overrating the Vikings. I am still going to take the Colts for pick ‘em purposes as a fade of the public, who is on the Vikings in a big way, setting the books up for a big payday if the Colts cover, but this line is too short to be confident in them.

Minnesota Vikings 23 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +4

Confidence: None

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Seattle Seahawks (7-6)

A week ago on the early line, the 49ers were just 1.5-point favorites in this game in Seattle, but the line has since shifted to 3.5, a significant shift, given that 1 in 6 games are decided by three points exactly, with one in four games being decided by 1-3 points. Normally I like to go against significant week-to-week line movements as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. In this case, the 49ers blew out the Buccaneers last week, while the Seahawks lost as home favorites to the Panthers.

The 49ers’ win over the Buccaneers was legitimate, but I don’t know how much stock I would put into the Seahawks’ loss to the Panthers, considering the Seahawks were likely caught looking forward to this much bigger game on a short week, with favorites covering at just a 43.3% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football. The 49ers were technically in the same spot last week, but the situations weren’t quite the same, as the Seahawks were facing a last place team before facing a divisional rival who blew them out earlier this season, while the 49ers were facing a better team and starting a third string quarterback in his first career start, a situation in which teams usually tend to be more focused, as they usually can’t afford not to be.

The Seahawks were also missing their feature back Kenneth Walker last week, whose absence led to the Seahawks getting nothing from their running game, and they were facing a Panthers team that is significantly better now with Sam Darnold and Steve Wilks as quarterback and head coach than they were with Baker Mayfield and Matt Rhule earlier in the season. Walker is back this week for the Seahawks and I would expect a much better effort from the Seahawks in a much bigger game for them, while the 49ers could have a little bit of a hangover effect from last week’s big blowout win and, as a result, are unlikely to bring their best effort again, facing a Seahawks team they’ve already beaten once this season.

With all that in mind, I like the line value we’re getting with the Seahawks as home underdogs of more than a field goal. In fact, my calculated line is still San Francisco -1, with the 49ers possessing just a 2.5-point edge in both my roster rankings and in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency. The Seahawks have a couple key questionable players on defense, safety Ryan Neal and interior defender Al Woods, who I expect to miss this game after not practicing all week, which will limit this bet, but my calculated line takes those absences into account, so the Seahawks are still bettable at +3.5 and, if Neal and/or Woods happen to play and this line stays put, I would consider increasing this bet.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Seattle Seahawks 23

Pick against the spread: Seattle +3.5

Confidence: Medium

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (7-5) at Buffalo Bills (9-3)

The Bills are favored by 10 points in this game against the Jets, who are at least a middling team, ranking 13th in schedule adjusted efficiency. That might seem high at first glance, but the Bills have had a tendency to blow teams out over the past two seasons, with 17 of their last 21 victories coming by 10 points or more, relevant considering where this line is. Only 2 of their last 5 wins have surpassed this margin of victory, but the Bills are healthier this week than they have been recently, which should make a big difference in the Bills’ margins of victory, as it did last week in their 14-point victory in New England.

A lot of attention has been paid to the Bills losing Von Miller for the season and that is a huge loss, but, aside from that, the Bills are in pretty good injury shape compared to most of the season, with talented safety Jordan Poyer (four games missed), starting offensive linemen Mitch Morse (two games) and Dion Dawkins one game), stud linebackers Tremaine Edmunds (three games) and Matt Milano (one game), and talented edge defender Greg Rousseau (three games), top cornerback Tre’Davious White (ten games) all set to play this week, after missing significant time with injury early in the season. My calculated line actually has the Bills as 11.5-point favorites here, so we’re getting a little bit of line value with them, despite the line being so high. This game isn’t bettable, but I like the Bills for pick ‘em purposes, as they should get another multi-score win this week, like they did last week and in most of their wins over the past two seasons.

Buffalo Bills 30 New York Jets 19

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -10

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) at Denver Broncos (3-9)

The Broncos have been the most disappointing team in the league this season, going just 3-9 and ranking 31st in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 6.5 points below average, meaning they’ve legitimately been as bad as their record suggests, despite entering the year considered to be Super Bowl contenders by some and to at playoff contenders by most. This week, they host the Chiefs in a game that was flexed from primetime because of how disappointing the Broncos have been. 

The Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites, but this line could arguably be a little higher, against a Chiefs team that is still one of the best teams in the league, tied for the best record in the AFC, ranking 2nd in schedule adjusted efficiency, 7.5 points above average and 14 points above the Broncos. My calculated line has the Chiefs favored by 11.5 and, while there’s not enough here for the Chiefs to be worth betting, they seem like the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Kansas City Chiefs 28 Denver Broncos 16

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -9.5

Confidence: Low

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (5-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-4)

This game is a tough call, with both teams being better than their records. The Bengals have four losses, but you can still argue they are one of the best teams in the league, with two of those losses coming in the first two weeks of the season and three of their losses coming by three points or fewer, as opposed to four wins by 12 points or more, giving them a point differential of +57 which ranks 6th in the NFL. They also rank 7th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 4.5 points above average, and they are getting healthy, with key players in running back Joe Mixon, defensive tackle DJ Reader, and wide receiver JaMarr Chase all expected to play this week after time earlier this season, leading to them being 6.5 points above average in my roster rankings.

The Browns, meanwhile, are the only team to beat the Bengals by more than three points this season, doing so by 19 points in Cleveland back in week 8, and, like the Bengals, most of their losses have been very close, with four of seven coming by three points or fewer. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Browns rank 10th, about 1.5 points above average, and they got franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson back from suspension last week, which should prove to be a significant upgrade in the long-term. 

I am going with the Bengals in this game for pick ‘em purposes, as 5.5-point home favorites, but only because Watson might still not be at his best in just his second game out, while the Browns defense continues to lose key players due to injury, with Sione Takitaki now out, meaning they’re without their top-3 linebackers from what was once a very talented group. Even with that taken into account though, this is one of the toughest games of the week from an against the spread perspective and is one of my lowest confidence picks. In fact, while I would take the Bengals at 5.5, I might switch to the Browns if the line moved to 6, that’s how close this decision is for me.

Cincinnati Bengals 33 Cleveland Browns 27

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -5.5

Confidence: None

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (1-10-1) at Dallas Cowboys (9-3)

This line is high, favoring the Cowboys over the Texans by 17 points. The Texans have been the worst team in the league this season, ranking dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency (6.5 points below average) and dead last in point differential (-99), but, as bad as they have been, they have only lost one game by more than 17 points and that was an 18-point loss, so the Texans certainly have a chance to cover this huge spread, even against a Cowboys team that is one of the best in the NFL. 

The Texans will also benefit from going back to their original starting quarterback Davis Mills, after starting terrible backup quarterback Kyle Allen for their past two games, an attempt to spark this team that backfired in a big way, leading to losses of 15 points and 13 points in the past two weeks. There’s not nearly enough here for the Texans to be worth betting and my calculated line barely gives us any line value with them, with the Cowboys favored by 16.5 points, but if I had to pick a side for pick ‘em purposes, it would be Houston.

Dallas Cowboys 30 Houston Texans 14

Pick against the spread: Houston +17

Confidence: None

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (6-6) at Arizona Cardinals (4-8)

The Cardinals were at the top of my overrated teams list coming into the season. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average. They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk.

The Cardinals are 4-8 this season, which is definitely a significant decline from last year’s record, but they’ve arguably been even worse than that suggests, still having a +1 turnover margin, despite a -57 turnover margin (27th in the NFL), leading to them ranking just 28th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about six points below average. The Patriots are a middling team, ranking 14th in schedule adjusted efficiency, barely above average, but they should still be favored by more than 1.5 points on the road in Arizona, with my calculated line favoring them by four. This isn’t a big play, in part because the Patriots are expected to be without top receiver Jakobi Meyers, but the Patriots are still worth a bet this week.

New England Patriots 20 Arizona Cardinals 16

Pick against the spread: New England -1.5

Confidence: Medium