2013 Week 5 NFL Picks

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Chargers, Raiders, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (1-3)

When I did my top-200 players back in August, the Chargers were the only team in the NFL that only had 1 player on the list (safety Eric Weddle). Even the Jaguars (Eugene Monroe, Maurice Jones-Drew, Cecil Shorts) and the Raiders (Jared Veldheer, Lamarr Houston) had more than one. They didn’t have a single player on the offensive side of the ball. The job Head Coach Mike McCoy has done with the offense in his first season with the team is amazing.

Despite a largely replacement level supporting cast around a declining Philip Rivers, McCoy has the Chargers moving the ball at an incredible rate, moving the chains on 82% of opportunities, only behind Denver and Indianapolis. The resurgence of Philip Rivers has a ton to do with it. Rivers looks like his pre-2011 self, completing 73.9% of his passes for an average of 8.4 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, despite a lack of talent around him.

The problem is the defensive side of the ball, which has almost as little talent. They are allowing opponents to move the chains 84% of the time. Only Philadelphia is worse. The Raiders get Terrelle Pryor back this week from injury. He certainly has flaws, but he’s a dynamic playmaker capable of taking advantage of a poor defense. He’s already one of the Raiders’ top-5 players and he’ll be a significant upgrade over Matt Flynn, who didn’t even look like he belonged in the league last week, leading the Raiders’ offense to one scoring drive against one of the worst defenses in the NFL all game.

For that reason, the Raiders certainly have a chance to cover, but the Raiders’ defense isn’t very good either. I could see the Chargers throwing up 30+ in this game and forcing the Raiders’ out of their offensive game plan, forcing Pryor to become a passer more than a runner, and winning fairly convincingly. I could really go either way on this game and the fact that it got moved to 11:55 PM Eastern Time doesn’t make things easier. I’m taking the Chargers, but I’m not confident at all.

San Diego Chargers 31 Oakland Raiders 24

Pick against spread: San Diego -4.5

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (3-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-2)

The Packers are 1-2, but this isn’t representative of the type of team they are. They started last year 2-3 and finished 11-5. They’ll be a very good 10-12 win team again this season. The Lions, however, are also very good. I had a 10 win projection for them at the start of the season and that seems very reasonable for them right now. Given that, I want to take Detroit because I think this line is a little high, but there are reasons for taking Green Bay as well.

I think this game means a lot more to the Packers. The Lions will obviously want to get the upset in Green Bay, a place where they haven’t had much success for a really long time. They also are coming off of a bye and are starting to get guys back from injury, including Eddie Lacy. We could easily see a game by the Packers that re-establishes themselves as one of the elite teams in the NFL against a quality Detroit team. I’m not confident either way, but the Packers should be the right side.

Green Bay Packers 31 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against spread: Green Bay -7.5

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) at Tennessee Titans (3-1)

Kansas City is 4-0 right now. However, their opponents have a combined record of 3-13. They’ve faced 3/4s of arguably the worst division in football, the NFC East, along with a Jacksonville team that’s worse than any team since the 2008 Lions and even that’s a debate. They luck out here though. While Tennessee is 3-1, they are without quarterback Jake Locker for the foreseeable future with a hip injury. Locker wasn’t the reason they were winning. You can credit a tough defense for that.

However, Locker hasn’t thrown an interception in 111 attempts, a huge part of the reason why the Titans have yet to commit a turnover this season. He was probably not going to continue that if he hadn’t gotten hurt, but the drop off from Locker to Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has thrown an interception on 3.6% of his career attempts, will be noticeable in this aspect. Between that and the fact that the Titans won’t recover every single one of their fumbles all season (3 of 3), they definitely won’t be able to count on winning the turnover battle every game going forward.

The Chiefs won’t be able to either. They are +9 in turnovers this season, but this type of thing is really inconsistent. The Chiefs and Giants came into last week’s game +9 and -9 in turnovers respectively and were even in turnovers in that gain. However, I think the Chiefs are more talented than the Titans in almost every aspect. It’ll be a tight game between two defensive lead teams, which is why I’m not confident in the Chiefs as favorites of a field goal on the road, but they should be the right side.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Tennessee Titans 13

Pick against spread: Kansas City -3

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at New York Giants (0-4)

The Giants have been outscored 69-7 in their last 2 games. That actually is a good thing for their chances this week. Teams are 36-18 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more. That makes sense. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that situation. The Giants are definitely embarrassed at this point and they are probably undervalued, as mere 1 point favorites here against a poor Philadelphia team. However, they might not be overlooked by the Eagles in a huge divisional matchup. Dallas plays Denver this week and Washington is on a bye so the winner of this game will probably be, at most, a game back of the divisional lead.

Philadelphia also has a powerful trend on their side. Teams are 90-55 ATS as road dogs off of a road loss since 2008, a trend that covers at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. However, it’s not like they’re big dogs here (1 point) so I don’t know if it’s that powerful. Ultimately, these two trends might not have a ton of effect on the game.

That being said, the Giants should be the right side. I think this line is too low. The Giants are a better team than the Eagles, in my opinion. They’ve been destroyed by turnovers this year, with a -9 turnover margin, 3rd worst in the NFL. However, that type of thing tends to be inconsistent. Eli Manning has a career 3.3% interception rate. He won’t throw an interception on 6.0% of his attempts for the rest of the season. The Giants also won’t continue recovering 30.8% of fumbles on the ground all season.

The Giants’ offensive struggles go beyond turnovers this season, but they should be able to move the ball here because the Eagles have the type of defense that you can do whatever you want with. They’ve allowed 112 first downs and forced 11 punts all season. They’re allowing opponents to move the chains on 85% of opportunities. The Giants’ defense isn’t great either, allowing opponents to move the chains on 78% of opportunities, but I like the Giants in a must win game more than the Eagles and I think they’re the better team.

New York Giants 31 Philadelphia Eagles 27

Pick against spread: NY Giants -1

Confidence: Low

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Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-1)

The Ravens have been a completely different team this year at home as compared to on the road. At home, they’ve beaten both Cleveland and Houston, but on the road, they were blown out in Denver and lost in Buffalo. This is nothing new. Since 2010, the Ravens are 25-3 at home and outscore opponents by an average of 10 points per game and 17-15 on the road, outscoring opponents by 1 point per game.

They’re on the road here again, but they have a better chance of covering and winning here for several reasons. First, they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams tend to cover at a high rate in their 2nd straight road game because they are more used to being on the road. Even the Ravens, as much as they’ve struggled on the road, are 6-3 ATS in their 2nd straight road game since 2010. On top of that, teams are 90-55 ATS as road dogs off of a road loss since 2008. Teams cover at about a 65% rate historically in that situation as well, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size.

The Ravens also essentially get two players added to their team. Eugene Monroe comes in from Jacksonville. He probably doesn’t have the playbook fully down yet, but he’s one of the better left tackles in the game and an upgrade on an aging Bryant McKinnie. Ray Rice also should be much closer to 100% this week. He only got 5 carries last week in a loss to Buffalo because of his injury situation and the Ravens weren’t able to establish the run at all. He also didn’t catch a pass. They don’t have enough weapons to get away with not involving Rice in the passing game. He should have a bigger impact this week. I don’t like taking the Ravens on the road, but they should be the right side.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Miami Dolphins 16 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Baltimore +3

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2)

The Texans aren’t as bad as they’ve looked in the past two weeks. They led a very good Seattle team 20-6 at home before failing to close it out (so much for their 7-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less meaning they “know how to win”) and against Baltimore, they were pretty even in first downs, yards, and punts. Baltimore just won by 21 because of two return touchdowns. However, they weren’t nearly as good as they looked coming into the last 2 weeks. They’ve now been outscored by 13 points over their last 17 games. This is the definition of a pedestrian team.

The 49ers, meanwhile, started out slow, but that was probably a fluke. There is no shame in getting blown out in Seattle and the Indianapolis game could have easily been a fluke. They looked as good as I knew they were against the Rams and they should continue playing that well going forward. Things will only get better as they are expected to get Patrick Willis back from injury this week. They certainly have the talent to blow out Houston here.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Houston Texans 13

Pick against spread: San Francisco -6.5

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Broncos, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (4-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)

The Broncos are playing incredible football right now. Peyton Manning has 16 touchdowns (to no interceptions) and 1470 yards, while the team has 179 points. They could easily break the touchdown record (50) the yardage record (5476) and the points record (589). However, they won’t play THIS well all season and they don’t need to in order to bring those records. They can break the scoring record by scoring 34.2 points per game the rest of the way, impressive, but more than 10 points per game less than they’ve scored thus far this season. I think that’s very reasonable.

As good as the Broncos have been, they’ve played arguably 3 of the worst 5 defenses in the NFL so far, playing the Giants, Raiders, and the Eagles. Those teams have allowed opponents to move the chains on 78%, 76%, and 85% of opportunities. These Cowboys allowed opponents to do so on 73% of opportunities and have significantly more defensive talent than those 3 teams have. This could be the start of Manning and the Broncos looking more human. The 2007 New England Patriots had a stretch in which they scored 173 points in 4 games and a stretch in which they scored 99 points in 4 games.

As a result, I think this line is way too big. The odds makers know they can jack this line up ridiculously high and people will still bet on the Broncos. The Broncos, predictably, are one of the highest bet teams this week. This could be a trap line for that reason. Before last week, this line was Denver -3.5. Now it’s Denver -9. We’ve had 5 and a half points of line movement and the public still loves the Broncos. Given that the odds makers always make money, that fact should scare you off of the Broncos. The Broncos, even if they somehow win every game this season, won’t cover every game this season. Even the 2007 Patriots went just 10-6 ATS, 10-9 ATS if you include the post-season.

The Cowboys are a solid football team. No team deserves to be favored by 9 points in Dallas against them. Yes, they lost in San Diego last week, but it’s not like San Diego is a terrible football team. Philip Rivers is playing excellent football right now. Besides, they had a huge situational trend working against them last week (non-divisional home dogs are 63-28 ATS since 1989 before being divisional favorites). This week, the Cowboys are the one with that powerful trend on their side. I like their chances of keeping this one close.

Denver Broncos 34 Dallas Cowboys 31

Pick against spread: Dallas +9

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (4-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)

In 2011 and 2012, the Bengals were 18-4 against non-playoff teams and 1-11 against playoff teams. However, I think this is the most talented Bengals team of the three so when they beat the Packers, despite losing the turnover battle, I felt they had turned a corner and gotten their signature win. Of course, last week they turned around and got blown out by the Browns 17-6. It’s possible that the Bengals were just flat off of a huge loss and/or caught looking forward to another benchmark game against the Patriots the following week, but I’m not going to pretend to understand this team after going 0-3-1 ATS picking their games thus far this season (36-20-1 ATS on every other team’s games).

The Patriots definitely look like a playoff team and the type of team the Bengals have ordinarily had trouble beating. If they play like they did against Green Bay, they can definitely win here though. The Patriots are lucky to be 4-0. They’ve had a very easy schedule and 3 of their wins have come by a touchdown or less. However, they’ve gotten better every week, culminating in a win in Atlanta last week in which they had a 99% chance of winning with 6 minutes left, before a failed onside kick recover gave them a scare late and got it within a touchdown. Kenbrell Thompkins has stepped up as a go to receiver for Tom Brady, alongside Julian Edelman. Brady’s week 4 performance, 20 of 31 for 316 yards and 2 scores, was by far his best of the season.

The Patriots have also been unlucky in terms of injuries and they will almost definitely only get healthier from here. Danny Amendola is expected to return this week to give Brady another weapon. The Bengals’ defense is better than the Falcons’ defense, but they’ll be without top cornerback Leon Hall again with injury so the Patriots could definitely put points up on the board. The Patriots do still have injuries though. Shane Vereen is still on injured reserve with designation to return. Rob Gronkowski is not expected back until next week so the Patriots still won’t get much from the tight end position, but they can spread things out with 3 wide receivers in Edelman, Thompkins, and Amendola. Stevan Ridley is also out, but Ridley hasn’t done anything this year that LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Bolden can’t do.

The big blow for the Patriots was the loss of Vince Wilfork defensively. Wilfork tore his Achilles against Atlanta and is out for the season. The defense has been as good as it’s been in years for the Patriots thus far this year. They are allowing opponents to move the chains on 66% of opportunities, 3rd best in the NFL behind the Jets and Saints. They haven’t played a tough schedule of offenses, but they were 9th in opponent’s scoring last year with a young defense and presumably their defensive play could have translated to tougher opponents to an extent. Losing Wilfork hurts.

Not only is he the veteran leader of the defense, but they don’t have anyone else who can even come close to what he does. Wilfork doesn’t rush the passer, but he ties up blockers and is impossible to move. Defensive tackle is the Patriots’ thinnest position so now 2 of the Patriots’ top-3 defensive tackles are undrafted free agents, while the other is Tommy Kelly, an aged veteran who struggled in Oakland last year, but has thus far played well in New England. Still, the Patriots have plenty of solid defensive players, particularly in pass defense.

They should be able to take away AJ Green as much as you can, with Aqib Talib and bracket coverage and that will make life very tough for Andy Dalton, who looked terrible last week with Joe Haden blanketing his go to receiver. Dalton completed 23 of 42 for 206 yards and a pick. He could struggle once again this week and my gut says to go against Andy Dalton against a good team and that the Patriots are still a little underrated. I’m not confident at all though.

New England Patriots 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against spread: New England PK

Confidence: None

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Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (4-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-1)

Ordinarily, the Seahawks struggle on the road, in addition to dominating at home. Since 2007, they are 17-37 SU and 22-31 ATS on the road, as opposed to 34-18 SU and 35-16 ATS at home. However, they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road, including wins in Carolina and Houston this season. Those games were close, but they still covered and they’ve been playing very, very good football dating back to the middle of last season.

They’ve won 12 of their last 14 overall dating back to the middle of last season, as Russell Wilson has completed 221 of 341 (64.8%) for 3011 yards (8.8 YPA), 25 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. They’ve outscored opponents by an average of 16.5 points per game over last 14 games overall, including 7.4 points per game on the road. They are also 12-2 ATS in those 14 games. They’re a dominant football team with a very strong home field advantage, rather than just an above average football team with a very strong home field advantage that shows its true colors on the road. I thought they were the latter before the season, but I’ve changed my mind, but I don’t feel this line reflects that.

Indianapolis could be a very solid football team, but I’m not 100% sold on them. They had 7 wins by 7 points or fewer against teams that finished with 7 wins or fewer in 2012. For the first two games of the season, it looked like the same old Colts, barely beating a bad Oakland team at home and then being unable to pull a win out of their ass at home for the Dolphins week 2. Things have changed in the past two weeks obviously, as they’ve blown out both the 49ers and the Jaguars, but it’s possible that the 49er game was just a fluke and the Jaguar game was just, well, a Jaguar game. They are pretty much the same personnel wise as they were 2 weeks ago and it’s hard to believe they suddenly just became a significantly better team. I guess you could point to the Trent Richardson trade, but he’s rushed for 95 yards on 33 carries in 2 games, so he’s not making much of an impact.

The Seahawks are also 8-6 ATS on the road as favorites, even dating back to 2007 and, in their 2nd straight road game, being away from home won’t be as big of a deal, even at a 1 PM ET start in the Eastern Time Zone. The Seahawks are 7-5 ATS in their 2nd straight road game, even dating back to 2007, and it’s very likely the Seahawks have spent the week practicing somewhere in the Eastern Time Zone, given that they weren’t far away last week in Houston. That’ll negate some of the Time Zone effect. Besides, teams are 52-33 ATS as road favorites off of a win as road favorites since 2002. I’m not incredibly confident, in case the Colts actually are for real, but the Seahawks should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 20 Indianapolis Colts 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -2.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-3)

Ordinarily, the Falcons dominate at home and ordinarily they dominate off of a loss, at least in the Matt Ryan era. In which started by Matt Ryan, the Falcons are 34-8 straight up at home, including 25-16 ATS. Off of a loss, Matt Ryan is 18-5 ATS. However, they were at home off of a loss last week and they still lost to the Patriots, in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score would have suggested. Though the Falcons lost by just 7, the Falcons’ win probability was about 1% with 6:18 left to go in the 4th quarter. It took an onside kick recovery to even make it competitive.

It’s very, very likely the Falcons just aren’t that good. I had them going 8-8 at the beginning of the season (thanks to a tougher schedule, off-season losses, and the fact that they’d have less “luck” recovering fumbles and winning close games). However, thanks to the Falcons’ injuries (Sean Weatherspoon, Steven Jackson, Kroy Biermann, Roddy White, Sam Baker), they might be 8-8 at best to finish this season. This is probably as bad of a Falcon team as we’ve seen as 2007, the final year before Matt Ryan/Mike Smith.

Given that, I don’t think they deserve to be 10 point favorites here, even at home and off of a loss. Besides, they are just 7-6 ATS under Matt Ryan as home favorites of a touchdown or more and have won just 1 home game by more than 10 points in their last 12 home games. The Jets, their opponents this week, aren’t terrible. They can’t move the ball offensively and having Santonio Holmes out and Stephen Hill being a game time decision at best won’t help. However, they have a fantastic defense that has allowed opponents to move the chains on 61% of chances, the best rate in the NFL.

They’ll be able to frustrate Matt Ryan all game, especially with a poor offensive line and running game unable to take the pressure off of him and a limited Roddy White, who re-aggravated his ankle injury against New England. They have one of the best front 7s and defensive fronts in the league and can absolutely dominate this game in the trenches.  The Jets also have a situational trend on their side. Teams are 90-55 ATS as road dogs off a road loss since 2008 and cover at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. It’s not a big play on the Jets because of the situational trends on the Falcons’ side and the Jets’ injuries, but they should be the right side. This line is too big. The Falcons are my Survivor Pick, however, in a tough week for Survivor Picks.

Atlanta Falcons 20 New York Jets 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: NY Jets +10

Confidence: Low

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