2014 NFL Picks

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bills, Browns, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (7-4) at Buffalo Bills (6-5)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Browns are in their 2nd of two road games, which tends to be a good spot for teams. Teams are 46-26 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a win as road underdogs. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 187-191 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.36 points per game, as opposed to 262-380 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.34 points per game.

On the other hand, the Bills are coming off of a Monday Night Football blowout win. Teams are 33-15 ATS since 2002 off of a win on Monday Night Football by 21 or more. Teams tend to carry that momentum into the next week. However, it’s unclear if that will still happen because the Bills played a weird Monday Night game last week, beating the Jets 38-3 in Detroit in a game that started at 7 PM ET and that wasn’t nationally televised, as a result of a snowstorm forcing to location and the time of the game to be changed. That adds uncertainty to the situation this week.

Both of these two teams have tough games next week, as the Bills head to Denver and the Browns host the Colts. Non-divisional home favorites are 73-99 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional road underdogs. Even worse, the Bills could be double digit underdogs in Denver next week. Teams are 42-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs as a tough game like that upcoming presents a massive distraction. The early line is 9.5 so that trend might not be in play, but it’s still worth mentioning and the logic could still hold either way.

On the Browns’ side, non-divisional road underdogs are 92-126 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 57-89 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012. The early line is right at 3 and may end up being less than 3, so that trend isn’t definitely in play, but again it’s worth mentioning and the logic still holds. The Browns are the better of these two teams, moving the chains at a 71.19% rate, as opposed to 70.73% for their opponents, a differential of 0.46% that ranks 17th in the NFL. The Bills, meanwhile, rank just 22nd, moving the chains at a 66.25% rate, as opposed to 68.22% for their opponents, a differential of -1.97%. However, this line is under 3 so we’re not really getting any real line value with the Browns. I’m going to take the Bills and hope the home team wins by a field goal and continues their momentum from last week, but I’m not confident at all.

Buffalo Bills 16 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -2.5

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (4-7) at Detroit Lions (7-4)

The Lions are in a nice spot here, after a very tough and unrewarding road trip that sent them to Arizona and New England, who are a combined 18-4. Teams that lose back-to-back road games are 43-25 ATS in their next game as long as they still have a winning record and they’re home favorites. It makes sense. Any team that is able to lose two road games and still have a winning record and be favored at home was probably pretty good to begin with and may be undervalued off of those two losses. It’s a nice bounce back spot for the Lions.

While the Lions are coming off of a very challenging stretch, they’re about to start a very easy stretch as they host the Bears, the Buccaneers, and the Vikings in consecutive weeks. They’ll be very focused to get back on track this week and teams are 61-47 ATS as home favorites before being home favorites again in their next two weeks. On top of that, they could be double digit home favorites next week against the lowly Buccaneers, which would open up a couple other trends. Teams are 98-80 ATS since 2008 before being double digit home favorites. That doesn’t seem that powerful, but it’s way more powerful when a team is home favorites before being double digit home favorites and their opponent will next be home underdogs, as is the case here. Teams are 27-10 ATS in that spot since 1989. The early line for Detroit/Tampa Bay is 9, so that trend might not be in play, but it’s worth mentioning and the logic could still hold. The Lions have no real distractions on the horizon.

The Bears, meanwhile, have to host the Cowboys next week, speaking of them being home underdogs next week. Divisional road underdogs are 58-71 ATS before being non-divisional home underdogs. The early line on that game is 3 and teams are 57-89 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012, as a game like that represents a big distraction. That line may end up being less than 3, so that trend isn’t definitely in play, but again it’s worth mentioning and the logic still holds. The Bears have a much more challenging game next week than the Lions and that bodes well for the Lions’ chances this week.

However, I’m not confident in the Lions at all because the advanced numbers suggest they aren’t as good as their record. The Lions move the chains at a 69.47% rate, as opposed to 71.00% for their opponents, a differential of -1.53% that ranks 19th in the NFL. The Bears, meanwhile, rank 14th, moving the chains at a 75.21% rate, as opposed to 73.94% for their opponents, a differential of 1.27%. The Lions have had a tough schedule, but I don’t trust their offense to cover this line, even against the Bears’ weak defense. Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson are powerful outside weapons, but they can’t run the ball, their offensive line is a mess thanks to injuries, they have nothing at tight end or over the middle, and Matt Stafford has been erratic this season. I’m taking the Lions because the trends say to, but I’m not confident at all.

Detroit Lions 27 Chicago Bears 19

Pick against the spread: Detroit -7

Confidence: None

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New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (4-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4)

I am legitimately shocked. The Saints had won 20 straight home games as long as they had both Drew Brees under center and Sean Payton on the sideline and they had 3 straight home games as favorites to move to 7-4 and run away with the pathetic NFC South. And they lost all 3. The types of things that are plaguing this team are the types of things that usually even out in the long run, but they have yet to do so for this team. They have a 1-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They have a -9 turnover margin and a -3 return touchdown margin, both powered by a 42.31% fumble recovery rate that ranks 28th in the NFL.

The Saints’ defense isn’t any good at all, but their offense has been moving the ball very efficiently, leading the NFL in first downs by a wide margin. They rank 10th in the NFL, moving the chains at a league best 80.65% rate, as opposed to 77.51% for their opponents, a differential of 3.13%. That’s why I think they’re better than their record and why they are going to be underrated and provide value going forward. However, this week they play the Steelers, who have been better than New Orleans both in record and actual level of play. They’re also on the road, where they haven’t been great recently, and the Steelers have a strong homefield advantage.

The Steelers rank 8th, moving the chains at a 77.42% rate, as opposed to 73.49% for their opponents, a differential of 3.93%. At home, the Steelers are 37-27 ATS at home in the Mike Tomlin era. Meanwhile, the Saints are 4-11 ATS on the road over the past 2 seasons. We’re not getting any line value with the Saints on the road as 4.5 point underdogs here in Pittsburgh, a superior team with a strong homefield advantage.

However, I’m still taking the Saints here as long as the line is higher than 4 because they’re in a good spot. For one, Drew Brees is 21-7 ATS off of a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, though that hasn’t been the case this season and he’s only 5-3 ATS on the road off of a loss. Brees is also 18-12 ATS as an underdog since coming to the Saints in 2006 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, though just 14-10 ATS on the road.

The Steelers also have a tough road game in Cincinnati next week, while the Saints return home for to play the Panthers, a team they’ve already beaten, in a game they’ll almost definitely be favored in. Non-divisional road underdogs are 119-94 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home favorites, while non-divisional home favorites are 101-124 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs. Combining the two, teams are 102-63 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. I’m not confident in the Saints at all on the road against a tough opponent though. This line isn’t high enough for me to be confident.

Pittsburgh Steelers 34 New Orleans Saints 31

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +4.5

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3)

The Cowboys have been horrible as home favorites since 2010, going 7-22 ATS in that situation. This isn’t unique to them as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average recently. At home, the NFC East is 73-82 since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.05 points per game and going 59-93 ATS. On the road, they are 74-78, getting outscored by an average of 2.34 points per game and going 80-70 ATS. As you can imagine, road teams in NFC East divisional games tend to do well, going 24-14 ATS over that time period as divisional road underdogs.

I’m not that confident in Philadelphia though because they are the inferior team and we’re not really getting any line value with them. The Cowboys rank 12th, moving the chains at a 76.22% rate, as opposed to 73.83% for their opponents, a differential of 2.39%. The Eagles are one spot behind them at 13th, moving the chains at a 71.83% rate, as opposed to 70.05% for their opponents, a differential of 1.78%. However, their offense hasn’t been good with Mark Sanchez under center, moving the chains at a 70.48% rate over the past 3 games. That’s about a percent and a half worse, despite the fact that they were facing Carolina (30th in rate of moving the chains allowed), Green Bay (29th), and Tennessee (31st). That’s about as easy of a schedule as you can get for an offense.

That’s also despite having Chip Kelly at head coach and despite the offensive line finally getting healthy. Even though Nick Foles wasn’t playing well himself, Sanchez has proven to be an inferior quarterback to Foles, which shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. They’ve put up some big point totals recently, scoring 45 against Carolina and 43 against Tennessee, but both were powered by 3 return touchdowns, were isn’t a sustainable way to put up points. The Eagles have a solid defense, but the Cowboys are the toughest defense that Sanchez has faced (that’s not saying much) and they could give him trouble. I’m still taking the Eagles here on the road, but I’m not confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Dallas Cowboys 23 Upset Pick +155

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (7-4) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals in Seattle in impressive fashion last week, but they are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 46-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 44-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.80 points per game at home. This is opposed to a 24-42 record away from home (28-37-1 ATS), getting outscored by 3.76 points per game. This season, they are 2-3 on the road, as opposed to 5-1 at home. On the road, they’ve moved the chains at a 77.18% rate, as opposed to 76.81% for their opponents, a differential of 0.37%.

They’re even worse on the road as road underdogs, going 15-25 ATS in that spot since 2007, including 9-18 ATS as road underdogs off a home game. This is only the 3rd time they’ve been road underdogs over the past 2 seasons, but for good reason (the other two instances were last year in San Francisco and two weeks ago in Kansas City). They aren’t as good as they were last season (the fact that they’ll be without Brandon Mebane and Max Unger this week doesn’t help) and San Francisco is solid.

San Francisco isn’t quite as good as their record, ranking 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 71.47% rate, as opposed to 70.98% for their opponents, a differential of 0.49%. However, they’re still solid and Seattle only ranks 9th, moving the chains at a 75.89% rate, as opposed to 72.15% for their opponents, a differential of 3.74%. As I said, they aren’t as good this season, especially on the road. San Francisco definitely deserves to be home favorites here. As they did in their other two instances as road underdogs over the past two seasons and as they did in their previous two trips to San Francisco with Russell Wilson, I expect the Seahawks to lose straight up here.

San Francisco is also in the better spot as their next game is in Oakland. They will have absolutely no distractions with such an easy game coming up in ten days, while Seattle has another tough game in Philadelphia up next, where they could once again be road underdogs. San Francisco, meanwhile, will almost definitely be significant road favorites. Teams are 87-57 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, including 55-33 ATS before being 4+ point favorites, and 23-7 ATS before being 7+ point favorites. I have confidence that the 49ers will win here.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Seattle Seahawks 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -1

Confidence: Medium

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Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (9-2) at Atlanta Falcons (4-7)

The Falcons lost at home last week, but that hasn’t been the norm for them at home in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. They are 31-21-1 ATS at home (38-15 straight up) since those two came in back in 2008, as long as Matt Ryan is healthy, including 7-3 ATS as home underdogs, as they are here. The fact that they lost last week actually makes it more likely that they cover this week as they’re very good off of a loss in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. They are 26-14 ATS off of a loss since 2008, including 17-9 ATS at home and 5-1 ATS as home underdogs.

We’re also getting line value with the Falcons as field goal underdogs here, even before we get into how good they’ve been at home. The Cardinals are not as good as their 9-2 record, moving the chains at a 72.14% rate, as opposed to 69.33% for their opponents, a differential of 2.81% that ranks just 11th. They’ve been way too reliant on a +12 turnover margin this season, powered by a 65.00% rate of recovering fumbles (2nd in the NFL), a 2-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, and a +3 return touchdown margin. Atlanta, meanwhile, ranks 20th, moving the chains at a 73.56% rate, as opposed to 75.27% for their opponents, a differential of 1.71%.

Arizona is also really missing Carson Palmer, their starting quarterback who is out for the season with a torn ACL.  Palmer completed 62.9% of his passes for an average of 7.26 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while backup Drew Stanton has completed 53.6% of his passes for an average of 7.08 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. They’ve moved the chains at a 69.47% rate in games that Drew Stanton started and a 73.96% rate in games started by Carson Palmer. They have no business being field goal favorites. They were exposed last week in Seattle and I think they will continue to be exposed this week in Arizona. They’ll be looking to get an easy win off of a very disappointing loss and I think they could overlook an Atlanta team that, as bad as their record is, is very tough at home generally.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play on the Falcons is because they have to go to Green Bay next week. Teams are 99-126 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home underdogs before being non-divisional road underdogs, while teams are 42-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs, which the Falcons undoubtedly will be next week. Still, there’s enough stuff here for me to feel confident grabbing the field goal with the Falcons, especially with the public all over Arizona.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Arizona Cardinals 23 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +3

Confidence: Medium

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Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (3-8) at Indianapolis Colts (7-4)

The Redskins stand at 3-8, but they aren’t as bad as their record. Their -56 point differential isn’t as bad as their record. They have just 2 losses by more than 11 points. They’ve also been killed by the turnover battle (-9) and the return touchdown battle (-4), two things that tend to even out in the long run. On the season, they move the chains at a 71.47% rate, as opposed to 71.43% for their opponents, a differential of 0.04% that ranks 18th in the NFL. The Colts, meanwhile, move the chains at a 77.04% rate, as opposed to 72.70% for their opponents, a differential of 4.34% that ranks 6th. This line is way too high at 10 points.

The Redskins have been better on the road than at home, as they don’t have a single road loss by more than 11 and the only two road games they’ve lost by more than 4 points involved the other team returning a touchdown. They only lost by 4 points last week in San Francisco as 10 point underdogs and they could easily keep it close here in Indianapolis. The Redskins have benched Robert Griffin for Colt McCoy this week. McCoy isn’t as talented as Griffin, but he’s a better fit for this offense and he’s played well in limited action this season, completing 85.7% of his passes for an average of 10.17 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception on 42 attempts. I’m still confident in the Redskins even with McCoy under center.

Unlike last week, the Redskins are in their 2nd straight road game this week, which is an added benefit. Teams are 110-74 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 93-52 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 187-191 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.36 points per game, as opposed to 262-380 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.34 points per game.

The only reason this isn’t a higher confidence pick is twofold. For one, the Colts go to Cleveland next week. While Cleveland has a solid record, the Colts will still be road favorites there next week and teams are 113-75 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites since 2002. Two, the Colts have a very solid homefield advantage. They are 15-7 ATS at home since 2012, when Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck came in. However, I still like the Redskins’ chances of playing another close road game.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: Washington +10

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Packers, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (9-2) at Green Bay Packers (8-3)

The Patriots have been the better of these two teams this season, ranking 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Packers rank 7th. They’ve moved the chains at a 77.75% rate, as opposed to 72.42% for their opponents, a differential of 5.33%, while the Packers have moved them at an 80.17% rate, as opposed to 75.89% for their opponents, a differential of 4.28%. The Patriots have especially been good over the past 7 weeks, moving the chains at an 82.40% rate, as opposed to 72.65% for their opponents, a differential of 9.75%. Their offense has gotten significantly better with the offensive line settling in and Rob Gronkowski returning to form, while their defense hasn’t really missed much of a beat without Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo.

Despite that, the Patriots are underdogs here by a field goal. The Patriots generally thrive in situations like that. Tom Brady is 46-18 ATS in his career as an underdog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points. However, the usual conditions that accompany the Patriots being in this situation are not in play. They aren’t coming off a loss. They’re not playing a team with a better record than them. They’re also on the road, where they haven’t been that good recently, going 5-9 ATS on the road since the start of last season. Even in situations where they are underdogs or small favorites on the road, they are 4-4 ATS on the road in that time period.

While the Patriots have had struggles on the road, the Packers have been dominant at home this season, so dominant in fact that this line of a field goal seems warranted, as good as the Patriots have been this season and especially since week 5. The Packers move the chains at an 80.37% rate at home, as opposed to 68.67% for their opponents, a differential of 11.69%. This home dominance is nothing new. Aaron Rodgers is 25-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 31-4 straight up, with an absurd +543 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 15.51 points per game.

Both of these teams are in good spots in terms of not having any significant distractions on the horizon. This is the toughest game of the season for either of these teams and a potential Super Bowl matchup. The Packers host Atlanta next week, while New England goes to San Diego. Teams are 98-80 ATS since 2008 before being double digit home favorites, as the Packers will be, while teams are 87-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more, including 55-33 ATS road favorites of 4 or more. The Patriots will be significant road favorites next week. This is really tough to pick, but I’m going with the Packers to fade the public underdog Patriots.

Green Bay Packers 27 New England Patriots 23

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -3

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (8-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)

The Chiefs lost to the Raiders last week. How are they going to beat the Broncos this week? The public is all over the Broncos as small road favorites here so that’s clearly what they’re thinking. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they always lose money in the long run and it makes sense to do so here. Yes, the Chiefs lost to the Raiders last week, but that doesn’t completely erase everything they’ve accomplished this season and all the times they proved they were a legitimate contender. The Broncos lost to the Rams two weeks ago and that didn’t erase all their accomplishments either. Fluky things happen in the NFL and the Chiefs were undoubtedly caught off guard last week after a win over the Seahawks with a game against the Broncos on deck. Teams are actually 57-41 ATS as home underdogs off of a loss as road favorites, including 5-1 ATS off of a loss as road favorites of a touchdown or more.

Prior to last week, the Chiefs beat the Seahawks, as I mentioned. They went into San Diego and won. They went into Buffalo and won. They blew out a solid Miami team in Miami (34-15). They blew out a Patriots team that has looked fantastic since (41-14). They took care of business against the Jets (24-10) and the Rams (31-7). Meanwhile, their three losses came by a combined 19 points and two of them came in Denver and San Francisco. On the season, the Chiefs still rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential. They move the chains at a 76.35% rate, as opposed to 71.47% for their opponents, a differential of 4.87%.

The Broncos still lead the league, moving the chains at a 78.80% rate, as opposed to 71.83% for their opponents, a differential of 6.96%, but no one, not even them, deserves to be favored over the Chiefs in Kansas City. The wrong team is favored here. The Broncos haven’t exactly looked good on the road this season anyway, losing in St. Louis, Seattle, and New England and needing a late pick six to cover over the Jets. Their only clean cover on the road was in Oakland. The Chiefs should be the right side. Don’t worry about the Chiefs losing Eric Berry. He hadn’t been playing that well this season and the Chiefs could give 110% this week to honor Berry. I wish Berry the best as he faces a possible lymphoma diagnosis.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Denver Broncos 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +2

Confidence: High

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San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Chargers, Ravens, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (6-5) at Baltimore Ravens (7-4)

This line is way too low. The Ravens rank 5th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.84% rate, as opposed to 72.29% for their opponents, a differential of 4.55%. The Chargers, meanwhile, rank 15th, moving the chains at a 73.39% rate, as opposed to 72.56% for their opponents, a differential of 0.84%. The Chargers have been especially bad of late, moving the chains at a 68.09% rate since week 7, as opposed to 74.19% for their opponents, a differential of -6.10%. They’ve just had so many injuries, the most serious one being to talented rookie cornerback Jason Verrett, who was playing so well before his injury.

The Ravens are significantly better than the Chargers, especially at home. The Ravens move the chains at a 79.52% rate at home this season, as opposed to 65.91% for their opponents, a differential of 13.61%. This home dominance is nothing new. Since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 45-10 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.58 points per game, at home, as opposed to 33-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.03 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9.5 points. It also hurts the Chargers that they are a West Coast team playing a 1 PM ET game on the East Coast. The Ravens should be favored by more than 5.5 here everything considered.

Speaking of the Ravens’ home dominance and the fact that they’re favored by just 5.5 here, the Ravens have done very well at home as underdogs or favorites of 7 or less since that 2008 season, going 22-11 ATS in that situation. The Ravens do have a tough game next week in Miami, where they’ll be underdogs, as non-divisional home favorites are 73-99 ATS before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2002 However, the Chargers have an even tougher game at home for New England next week. Non-divisional road underdogs are 92-126 ATS before being non-divisional home underdogs since 2002. Going off of that, teams are 57-89 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012 and 29-62 ATS before being home underdogs of 4 or more. In a tough week for games, this is my Pick of the Week.

Baltimore Ravens 31 San Diego Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -5.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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