Last week
Against the Spread: 7-8-1
Straight Up: 8-8
Pick of the Week: 0-1
High Confidence: 0-0
Medium Confidence: 4-1
Low Confidence: 2-3
No Confidence: 1-3-1
Upset Picks: 0-1
On the season
Against the Spread: 132-104-4 (.559)
Straight Up: 151-88-1 (.632)
Pick of the Week: 8-7-1
High Confidence: 8-10
Medium Confidence: 49-28
Low Confidence: 32-28-2
No Confidence: 35-31-1
Upset Picks: 17-24
Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)
This is the toughest game of the week for me to predict. These two teams are almost identical in terms of rate of moving the chains differential this year, with Pittsburgh coming in 6th, and Kansas City coming in 7th. The Steelers have the better offense, moving the chains at a 78.23% rate, but allow opponents to move the chains at a 73.81% rate, a differential of 4.42%. Meanwhile, the Chiefs struggle, relatively, offensively, moving the chains at a 73.98% rate, but only allow opponents to move the chains at a 69.76% rate, a differential of 4.21%.
The Chiefs seem to be in a good spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation in which teams are 124-94 ATS since 2002, but it’s hard to classify this as a good spot, considering they have an equally big game next week against San Diego. Even though both of these teams are will be home favorites next week, neither as an easy game as the Chiefs host the Chargers and the Steelers host the Bengals in game that will have significant implications for the playoff race. Both of these two teams are essentially in the same spot with both teams controlling their own destiny to make the playoffs, if they win each of the next two games. Between that and how similar they’ve played on the field, this game is borderline impossible to call, but I’m going with the Chiefs and fading a slight public lean.
Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Kansas City Chiefs 21
Pick against the spread: Kansas City +3
Confidence: None
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Seattle Seahawks (10-4) at Arizona Cardinals (11-3)
A lot is made about the Seahawks’ homefield advantage in the NFC West, but the Cardinals have had a tough homefield advantage in recent years as well, going 29-11 ATS as home underdogs or favorites of less than 3 since 2007. This season alone they are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS at home. Despite that, the public is all over the Seahawks. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it makes some sense here.
The reason I say some sense is because I can’t be confident in Ryan Lindley. On the season, the Cardinals rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 70.30% rate, as opposed to 68.60% for their opponents, a differential of 1.70%. Meanwhile, the Seahawks rank 5th, moving the chains at a 75.29% rate, as opposed to 70.31% for their opponents, a differential of 4.98%. That suggests this line at 9 points is way too high. However, they move the chains at just a 67.18% rate in games where they don’t have Carson Palmer active, primarily playing Drew Stanton in those games. That still suggests this line is too high, but while Drew Stanton was a decent and functional backup, Ryan Lindley has never resembled that.
All of his action prior to this year was in 2012, when he completed 52.0% of his passes for an average of 4.40 YPA, 0 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, as the former 6th round pick showed a stunning lack of accuracy. It’s possible that he’ll be better in Bruce Arians system and he’s done a great job of getting the best out of guys, but he didn’t look good at all in limited action against the Rams, completing 4 of 10 for 30 yards. This line is probably still too high, especially given how dominant the Cardinals have been there, but I can’t be confident. The Seahawks are also in a good spot as teams are 95-64 ATS as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites since 2010. They don’t have any upcoming distractions on the horizon with only a home game against St. Louis left on their schedule. I’m going with the Cardinals, but, again, I’m not confident.
Seattle Seahawks 16 Arizona Cardinals 9
Pick against the spread: Arizona +9
Confidence: None
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Atlanta Falcons (5-9) at New Orleans Saints (6-8)
The Saints recently won 20 straight home games with Sean Payton and Drew Brees, covering in almost all of them (18-1-1 ATS), but they’ve since lost 4 straight games at home, all as favorites. On the season, they are just 2-5 ATS at home and oddly enough they are 4-3 ATS on the road. The Saints certainly aren’t the auto-bet at home they used to be, but it’s worth mentioning how much of an advantage they’ve had in the Superdome in recent years.
The Falcons, meanwhile, typically struggle on the road, especially over the past 2 seasons, going 4-8 ATS as road underdogs since the start of last year. This season, they move the chains at a 72.52% rate, as opposed to 76.95% for their opponents, on the road, a differential of -4.43%. The Falcons are 27-15 ATS off of a loss in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era, since 2008, but just 2-4 ATS on the road off of a loss in the last two seasons.
The Saints are better than their record suggests, ranking 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 79.60% rate, as opposed to 77.33% for their opponents, a differential of 2.27%. The Falcons, meanwhile, rank 21st, moving the chains at a 74.83% rate, as opposed to 76.23% for their opponents, a differential of -1.40%. However, this line already takes into account that the Saints are better than their record as it’s at 6.5 right now.
Both of these teams are in good spots with easy games on deck, New Orleans going to Tampa Bay and Atlanta hosting the Panthers, meaning that both teams should be able to focus completely on this must win game. Divisional home favorites (like the Saints) are 37-25 ATS before being divisional road favorites since 2002, while divisional road underdogs (like the Falcons) are 60-43 ATS before being divisional home favorites. However, the Saints’ game next week is the easier of the two, which puts them in the better spot. The early line has them favored by 4.5 in Tampa Bay. Teams are 93-67 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, including 60-40 ATS before being 4+ road favorites. I’m taking the Saints, but I’m not confident.
New Orleans Saints 30 Atlanta Falcons 20
Pick against the spread: New Orleans -6.5
Confidence: None
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Cleveland Browns (7-7) at Carolina Panthers (5-8-1)
The Browns had a horrific showing last week at home in Johnny Manziel’s debut losing the first down battle 5-24 against the Bengals and moving the chains at a 35.71% rate, as opposed to 78.38% for the Bengals. As a result of that, this line with Carolina favored by 4 is pretty reasonable. On the season, the Browns move the chains at a 68.28% rate, as opposed to 70.21% for their opponents, a differential of -1.94% that ranks 25th. The Panthers, meanwhile, rank 19th, moving the chains at a 73.45% rate, as opposed to 74.25% for their opponents, a differential of -0.80%.
However, teams generally do well off of a home shutout loss, going 40-26 ATS since 1989 off of a home game in which they didn’t score any points. On top of that, teams are 82-47 ATS since 2002 off of an ATS loss off of 28 or more. It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. I don’t think the Browns are undervalued, but they could easily be overlooked and embarrassed. Johnny Manziel, in particular, has been listening all week to how much of a bust he is, even though he’s made just one start and he’s 5 months removed from being a first round pick. I don’t expect him to be nearly as caught off guard this week, humbled off the worst performance of his career.
Neither of these two teams is in a good spot with tough divisional road games next week, Cleveland in Baltimore and Carolina in Atlanta. However, the Browns are in the worse spot. Non-divisional road underdogs (like the Browns) are 51-83 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road underdogs since 2002, while non-divisional home favorites (like the Panthers) are 89-106 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. I’m taking the Browns because I like their bounce back potential off of such an ugly loss and I don’t like how everyone is already writing off Johnny Football, but they’re not in a great spot, we’re not getting any line value with them, and Manziel is still unproven, so I’m not confident.
Carolina Panthers 19 Cleveland Browns 17
Pick against the spread: Cleveland +4
Confidence: None
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San Diego Chargers (8-6) at San Francisco 49ers (7-7)
The public is all over the Chargers here. It’s understandable. The 49ers have lost 3 straight games, haven’t covered since week 11 in New York against the Giants and haven’t covered at home since week 13 of last season. They’ve been eliminated from the playoffs and Jim Harbaugh is basically a goner. However, these players will all still play hard for themselves and the talent difference between these two teams isn’t really that much.
I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, especially when the public is on the underdog. Whenever the public and the odds makers have different ideas about which team is going to win and which team should be favored, it usually doesn’t end well for the public. If the Chargers are really as likely to win as the public thinks, why do the people who set lines for a living still have San Francisco favored?
Fading the public does make sense this week. As I mentioned, the talent difference between these two teams isn’t really that much. The Chargers move the chains at a 73.63% rate, as opposed to 73.30% for their opponents, a differential of 0.33% that ranks 14th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the 49ers rank 18th, moving the chains at a 70.59% rate as opposed to 71.36% for their opponents, a differential of -0.77%. The 49ers lost Ray McDonald, a valuable defensive lineman, this week, releasing him after it came out that he was being investigated for violence against a woman for the 2nd time this year. They’ll also be without talented linebacker Chris Borland.
However, the Chargers are going to be without both Keenan Allen and Ryan Mathews this week, while Philip Rivers reportedly is playing through a serious injury, which would explain why he’s struggled mightily over the past 2 weeks. The Chargers generally are very good in December, but they didn’t cover at home against either Denver or New England in the last 2 weeks and neither game was really that close. As long as Rivers is playing through a significant injury, missing his top two offensive weapons, I don’t think the Chargers’ past December success is relevant to this game.
The Chargers are also in a tough spot with another very important game in Kansas City on deck next week, so it’s possible they somewhat overlook a struggling non-conference opponent. Teams are 51-83 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road underdogs. Meanwhile, the 49ers host the broken down Cardinals next week. If this line does move to San Diego being favored before game time, that would put them in a bad spot because teams are 62-38 ATS since 2012 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. It’s hard to be confident in the 49ers, but they should be the right side.
San Francisco 49ers 24 San Diego Chargers 20
Pick against the spread: San Francisco -1
Confidence: Low
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New England Patriots (11-3) at New York Jets (3-11)
The Patriots are one of the best teams in the NFL and the Jets are one of the worst, but this line is still a little high at 10.5. The Patriots move the chains at a 77.87% rate, as opposed to 72.00% for their opponents, a differential of 5.87% that ranks 2nd in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Jets rank 28th, moving the chains at a 67.73% rate, as opposed to 71.88% for their opponents, a differential of -4.16%. However, double digit road favorites are rare. It’s only happened one other time this season (Denver in Oakland) and 17 times previously since 2010.
It’s usually reserved for matchups between the absolute worst and absolute best teams in the NFL and teams are just 6-11 ATS in this spot since 2010 anyway. Despite that, the public is all over the Patriots. The odds makers know they can make this spread basically as high as they want and the public isn’t going to bite on the Jets. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because they always lose money in the long run.
However, I’m actually going to side with the public this week, though I’m not that confident. The Patriots always get better as the season goes on, at least in the regular season. They are 33-4 straight up in the 2nd half of the season since 2010, going 24-13 ATS. It makes sense as Bill Belichick is the best mid-season adjuster in the NFL. This season, they’ve really been on fire since week 5, losing just once, a close defeat in Lambeau against the Packers, arguably the toughest place to win in the NFL. Excluding the first 4 weeks of the season, they are moving the chains at a 81.32% rate, as opposed to 72.00% for their opponents, which is borderline otherworldly.
Speaking of Belichick being a fantastic adjustor, he does a great job in same season, regular season revenge games. The Patriots haven’t lost to the same team twice the regular season since 2000, winning and covering in all 10 instances. This isn’t a true revenge game because the Jets didn’t knock the Patriots off in Gillette earlier this year, but they came close, covering the spread, losing by two, and being a blocked field goal away from winning.
However, Belichick is also 5-2 ATS in same season, regular season rematches against opponents who they previously beat, but didn’t cover against. That means that teams that previously covered the spread against the spread against the Patriots are just 2-15 ATS in the rematch since 2001, which is absurd. Despite the outcome of that game, Belichick can’t be happy with how his team performed in the first matchup and the perfectionist and master adjustor should be able to get his team to play up to their abilities this week.
Also helping them is the fact that they don’t really have another tough game left in the regular season as week 17 is a home game against the Bills. There aren’t any distractions for the Patriots on the horizon, while the Jets still have to deal with a trip to Miami. Teams are 95-64 ATS as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites since 2010, while 6+ point underdogs are 65-91 ATS before 6+ point underdogs over that same time period. Going off of that, teams are 27-60 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point underdogs when their opponent will next be 6+ point favorites, as teams in that situation are at such a disadvantage schedule wise. The Patriots should be focused and take care of business here by at least two touchdowns, but I’m not super confident. I wish this line was lower.
New England Patriots 27 New York Jets 13
Pick against the spread: New England -10.5
Confidence: Low
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Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at Washington Redskins (3-11)
This is one of two games this week where the line is really off, according to rate of moving the chains differential (the other one is Chicago/Detroit). The Redskins haven’t been quite as bad as their record this season, moving the chains at a 70.28% rate, as opposed to 72.20% for their opponents, a differential of -1.92% that ranks 24th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Eagles haven’t been as good as their record, moving the chains at a 71.43% rate, as opposed to 71.06% for their opponents, a differential of 0.36% that ranks 13th in the NFL.
Their offense has been even worse over the past few games with Mark Sanchez under center in place of an injured Nick Foles, as they’ve moved the chains at a 70.10% rate over the past 6 games, despite 5 of those 6 games coming against opponents who rank in the bottom-8 in rate of moving the chains differential (Tennessee 28th, Green Bay 30th, Carolina 25th, Dallas twice 27th). Things have been especially bad over the past 2 games, resulting in home losses to Seattle and Dallas. It’s really hard to trust Mark Sanchez as a massive road favorite, especially with the public all over Philadelphia. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it does here.
However, unlike Chicago/Detroit, I’m not confident enough to put money on this one. There’s a lot of stuff working against the Redskins as well, including an injury to top defensive player Jason Hatcher. On top of that, the Eagles have a much easier game than the Redskins do next week as they head to New York to take on the Giants, while the Redskins have to host the Cowboys. Teams are 93-67 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites (the early line is Philadelphia -3). On the other side of the coin, Teams are 64-98 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ home underdogs, including 34-69 ATS before being 4+ home underdogs, and 12-25 ATS before being 7+ home underdogs (the early line is Dallas –8). The Redskins should be the right side, but I’m not that confident.
Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Redskins 20
Pick against the spread: Washington +8.5
Confidence: Low
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Denver Broncos (11-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1)
The Bengals had a huge performance in Cleveland last week, winning the first down battle 24-5 against the Browns and moving the chains at a 78.38% rate, as opposed to 35.71% for their opponents. However, they still rank just 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 72.13% rate, as opposed to 72.67% for their opponents, a differential of -0.54%. Meanwhile, the Broncos are best in the NFL, moving the chains at a 77.30% rate, as opposed to 71.20% for their opponents, a differential of 6.10%. Despite what the Bengals did last week, the Broncos definitely deserve to be field goal favorites here on the board.
The Broncos are also in a good spot in their 2nd straight road game, winning in San Diego last week. Teams are 56-37 ATS as road favorites off of a win as road favorites since 2002. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 195-198 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.31 points per game, as opposed to 272-389 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.27 points per game.
On top of that, Manning has been very good in primetime games in his career, going 33-16 ATS in such games since 2003, over a decade ago. Andy Dalton doesn’t have the same amount of experience in these types of games so the sample size isn’t as big, but the Bengals don’t have a good history in games like this since he took over as the starter in 2011, going 2-9, including 3 playoff losses. Again, it’s a small sample size, but it’s definitely not good, especially when you compare it with Manning and his much larger sample size.
The Broncos also have the much easier game next week so they won’t be as distracted, as they host the Raiders in a game that could have this season’s biggest line. Non-divisional road favorites are 79-63 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 46-34 ATS since 2002 before being favorites of 14 or more. Meanwhile, the Bengals have an equally big, if not bigger, game next week in Pittsburgh, a divisional opponent who they are competing with for both the division crown and potentially a wild card spot. I like the Broncos chances of covering here a good amount.
Denver Broncos 27 Cincinnati Bengals 17
Pick against the spread: Denver -3
Confidence: Medium
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New York Giants (5-9) at St. Louis Rams (6-8)
This line is off. The Rams are 6.5 point favorites here at home despite the fact that the Giants rank better in rate of moving the chains differential. The Giants rank 16th, moving them at a 72.33% rate, as opposed to 72.52% for their opponents, a differential of -0.19%. Meanwhile, the Rams come in at 20th, moving the chains at a 69.15% rate, as opposed to 70.12% for their opponents, a differential of -0.97%. On top of that, the Giants historically don’t have as much trouble, relatively, away from home as the rest of the league. Since 2004, the Giants are 52-42 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.20 points per game, as opposed to 51-40 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.74 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally worse on the road (about 3 points), but the line has never really adapted to compensate.
Neither of these teams is in a great spot with the Rams going to take on the Seahawks in Seattle next week and the Giants heading home to take on the Eagles. Non-divisional home favorites are 89-108 ATS before being divisional road underdogs since 2002, while non-divisional road underdogs are 61-83 ATS before being divisional home underdogs over that same time period. However, the Rams are in the worst spot as they are projected to be double digit underdogs next week (the early line is Seattle -10). Teams are 47-87 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. The Giants are projected to be 3 point home underdogs and teams are 64-98 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ home underdogs, but the Rams still have the more powerful trend working against them. The Giants should be the right side.
St. Louis Rams 20 New York Giants 19
Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6.5
Confidence: Medium
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