2014 Week 12 NFL Picks

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (7-3) at New York Giants (3-7)

One of the more powerful trends says that road favorites of 3 or more are incredibly dominant off of a bye, going 40-12 ATS since 2002, including 21-4 ATS in divisional matchups, like this one here. It makes sense. The Cowboys are a significantly better team than the Giants and should be very well prepared for this game with 2 weeks off and take care of business. On the season, they move the chains at a 76.01% rate, as opposed to 72.54% for their opponents, a differential of 3.48% that ranks 10th in the NFL. The Giants, meanwhile, rank 22nd, moving the chains at a 71.87% rate, as opposed to 74.45% for their opponents, a differential of -2.59%.

The Giants also don’t have quite the same homefield advantage as most teams do, at least they haven’t in recent history. In the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, since 2004, the Giants are 51-41 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 50-39 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.71 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home. This isn’t unique to them as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average. At home, the NFC East is 72-81 since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.96 points per game and going 57-93 ATS. On the road, they are 73-77, getting outscored by an average of 2.37 points per game and going 79-69 ATS. As you can imagine, road teams in NFC East divisional games tend to do well, going 31-22 ATS over that time period. The Cowboys are already a perfect 4-0 on the road this season and looking to push it to 5-0 this week.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a bigger play on Dallas. One, Dallas has to play Philadelphia in 4 days on Thanksgiving. Favorites are 36-58 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. Two, on the other hand, the Giants have an easy game in Jacksonville where they are currently projected to be 3.5 point favorites. Teams are 85-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more and home underdogs are 68-42 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. They don’t have the same upcoming distraction that the Cowboys have. However, I still like Dallas as big road favorites off of a bye in a place that hasn’t had a ton of homefield advantage recently.

Dallas Cowboys 34 New York Giants 24

Pick against the spread: Dallas -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Lions, Patriots, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (7-3) at New England Patriots (8-2)

The Patriots have scored 243 points in the last 6 weeks since that embarrassing loss in Kansas City, more than 21 teams have scored all season. Over those past 6 weeks, they are moving the chains at an 82.74% rate, as opposed to 73.76% for their opponents. For comparison sake, in the first 4 weeks of the season, they moved the chains at a 66.96% rate, as opposed to 72.00% for their opponents. Their offense has gotten significantly better with the offensive line settling in and Rob Gronkowski returning to form, while their defense hasn’t really missed much of a beat without Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo. The Lions, meanwhile, haven’t been as good as their record, as their 7-3 record has been powered by a 3-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 69.90% rate, as opposed to 69.66% for their opponents, a differential of 0.24%.

As a result, the public is all over the Patriots here and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they always lose money in the long run. I think it does here and I’m going against the Patriots this week, despite all that because the Patriots are in a bad spot. I think this is the week they slip up a little, as they typically do as big home favorites against non-conference opponents. They have never really gotten up for these types of games in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era, going 4-11 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more against non-conference opponents since 2001.

On top of that, the Lions have an easy game at home against the Bears on deck, while the Patriots have arguably their toughest game of the season in Green Bay next week. Teams are 122-93 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, while non-divisional home favorites are 76-106 ATS before being non-divisional road underdogs over that same time period. Combining the two, teams are 100-61 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. On top of that, the Lions are currently projected to be favored by 7 points next week and touchdown underdogs are 62-38 ATS since 1989 before being touchdown favorites.

The Lions are also in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 110-73 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 93-51 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 186-189 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.28 points per game, as opposed to 260-376 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.29 points per game. I hate going against the Patriots as well as they are playing and I think the Lions are a little overrated, but the Lions should be the right side.

New England Patriots 23 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Detroit +7

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4)

The Jaguars aren’t the worst team in the NFL, as the Raiders are winless at 0-10 and have looked really, really bad in the process, but they’ve still been horrible over the past two seasons. They have covered just 9 of their last 27 games, dating back to week 17 of 2012. Over those 27 games, they lost 17 of them by double digits and could easily make it 18 this week on the road against a very good Indianapolis team. On the season, the Jaguars are moving the chains at a 66.67% rate, as opposed to 72.87% for their opponents, a differential of -6.20% that ranks 30th in the NFL.

The Colts, meanwhile, rank 12th, moving the chains at a 77.30% rate, as opposed to 74.23% for their opponents, a differential of 3.06%. They’ve been even better at home, moving the chains at a 76.63% rate, as opposed to 70.13% for their opponents, a differential of 6.50%. This is nothing new as they are 14-7 ATS at home since 2012, when Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck came in. They lost last week at home against the Patriots, but that was obviously a much tougher opponent and they typically bounce back very well off of a loss in the Pagano/Luck era, as most good head coach/quarterback combinations do, going 12-1 ATS off of a loss since 2012.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, are in a bad spot with a home game against the Giants up next. Teams are 57-87 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more (the early line is NY Giants -3.5). That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, it’s definitely the latter. I like the Colts a good amount, even as two touchdown favorites.

Indianapolis Colts 38 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -14

Confidence: High

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Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1) at Houston Texans (5-5)

I love fading the public whenever it makes sense. The odds makers always make money in the long run and they always have a much better sense of how good each team actually is because it’s their job to set these lines. I especially love fading the public when they’re on an underdog. They very rarely are, but if they are, chances are it’s because they’re falling into a trap by the odds makers. If the odds makers pick one team to be favored, but the public thinks another should be favored, chances are it’s not going to end well for the public.

The Bengals are a public underdog here and I can understand why. After all, Houston is just 5-5 while the Bengals are 6-3-1. However, the Texans are favored for a reason and it’s because they’re actually a better team than the Bengals, especially the Bengals on the road. The Texans rank 21st in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 70.92% rate, as opposed to 72.92% for their opponents, a differential of -2.00. The Bengals, despite their record, rank 23rd, moving the chains at a 71.43% rate, as opposed to 75.07% for their opponents, a differential of -3.64%. That gets even worse on the road, as they move the chains at a 65.71% rate on the road, as opposed to 78.00% for their opponents, a differential of -12.29%. Since the start of last season, they are 4-7-1 ATS on the road.

I’m hesitant to take the Texans because the Bengals are in their 2nd straight road game and historically teams do better in their 2nd straight road game than their 1st. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. Teams tend to adjust to the road in their 2nd of two road games. However, the Bengals are coming off of a big upset win in New Orleans last week as touchdown underdogs and teams are 39-47 ATS since 1989 as road underdogs off of a road win as underdogs of 7 or more. They could be overconfident here after that, which would nullify any advantage they get from being in their 2nd straight road game. As long as this line is less than a field goal, I like the Texans here.

Houston Texans 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: Houston -1.5

Confidence: Low

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Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-6)

The Saints have lost back-to-back home games, but that doesn’t completely erase what they’ve historically done at home in recent memory. Before these last two games, they had won 20 straight home games under Sean Payton and they are still 18-3-1 ATS at home over their last 22 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton, outscoring opponents by an average of about 16.91 points per game. Even just this season at home, they move the chains at an 82.26% rate, as opposed to 75.86% for their opponents, a differential of 6.40%. They’re even better in night games at home, going 13-3 ATS in night games at the Superdome since Drew Brees and Sean Payton arrived all the way back in 2006. They most recently blew out a Green Bay team that has done nothing but put up points in the weeks since.

Meanwhile, the Ravens are not as good on the road and haven’t been for years. While the Ravens are 44-10 at home since the start of the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.52 points per game, they are just 32-30 on the road over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.34 points per game. This season, they move the chains at a 72.61% rate on road, as opposed to 75.61% for their opponents, a differential of -3.00%. On top of that, Drew Brees is typically deadly off of a loss as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline (last week was the exception), going 21-6 ATS off a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, including 16-3 ATS at home.

The only reason that this isn’t a bigger play on New Orleans isn’t that I don’t trust the Saints after they’ve burned me in several times on big plays this season. They still have most first downs in the NFL and are much better than their record. We’re finally getting great value with them at home off of those two losses as this line went from 6 to 3 after their loss last week. However, they are in a bad spot with a trip to Pittsburgh on deck, while the Ravens host the Chargers next. Teams are 111-75 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008, while teams conversely are 76-106 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Combining the two, teams are 100-61 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. I still like the Saints a good amount here in a big night game at home.

New Orleans Saints 27 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: Medium

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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) at Oakland Raiders (0-10)

The Chiefs beat the Seahawks last week, but this line still doesn’t reflect how good they are. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.45% rate, as opposed to 71.38% for their opponents, a differential of 6.07%. It makes sense. In addition to what they did last week, they went into San Diego and won. They went into Buffalo and won. They blew out a solid Miami team in Miami (34-15). They blew out a Patriots team that has looked fantastic since (41-14). They took care of business against the Jets (24-10) and the Rams (31-7). Meanwhile, their three losses came by a combined 19 points and two of them came in Denver and San Francisco. As long as they aren’t overconfident over last week’s win, they should be able to win fairly easily here.

The Raiders, meanwhile, are terrible, moving the chains at a 62.50% rate, as opposed to 74.30% for their opponents, a differential of -11.80%, easily the worst in the NFL (no one else is worse than -8.51%). They should be way more than touchdown underdogs here at home for Kansas City. Speaking of them being home underdogs, that actually puts them in a bad spot, as teams are 30-59 ATS as divisional home underdogs in night games since 1989.

The only reason I’m not that confident is because the Raiders are in a good spot because they’re winless and on a big losing streak. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that situation. Teams are 31-15 ATS since 1989 as underdogs with a record of 0-8 or worse, though only 13-12 as home underdogs. On top of that, underdogs with records of 0-5 or worse are 39-19 ATS off of a loss by a touchdown or less, though again only 15-10 ATS as home underdogs. Also, while the Raiders will be overlooked and embarrassed, they aren’t undervalued because the Chiefs are only touchdown favorites here. The Chiefs should be the right side.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Oakland Raiders 10

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -7

Confidence: Low

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Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Broncos, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (6-4) at Denver Broncos (7-3)

The Broncos suffered a shocking loss in St. Louis last Sunday, losing 22-7 as 10 point road favorites. However, that was a very fluky loss and the Broncos played a lot better than the final score suggested. The Broncos had more first downs (21 and 16) and an equal amount of offensive touchdowns (1), as the Rams were overly reliant on a +2 turnover margin. The Broncos moved the chains at a 68.75% rate, as opposed to 60.71% for the Rams. On the season, the Broncos are still first in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 77.62% rate, as opposed to 70.09% for their opponents, a differential of 7.52%.

Despite that, we’re still getting significant line value with the Dolphins as the Dolphins are better than their 6-4 record suggests. Their +69 point differential is actual the same as Denver’s. All 6 of their wins have come by 13 points or more and two of their losses came by 4 points or less against two very solid teams (Green Bay, Detroit). They rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 74.47% rate, as opposed to 68.44% for their opponents, a differential of 6.03%. This line is way too high, especially with Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas in doubt for the Broncos this week.

On top of that, the Dolphins have a much easier game up next, as they head to New York to play the Jets, while the Broncos have to go to Kansas City for one of their toughest games of the season. The Broncos have a way bigger distraction on the horizon, which is going to make it much harder for them to cover here. Teams are 86-106 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. Conversely, teams are 40-31 ATS since 1989 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road favorites.

Combining the two, teams are 100-61 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 36-13 ATS since 2002 as road underdogs before being road favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs. Going off of that, teams are 85-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more and 54-33 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more. The Dolphins will almost definitely be favored by 4 or more next week in New York against the Jets. As long as the line is more than a touchdown, this is my Pick of the Week.

Denver Broncos 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Miami +7.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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2014 Week 11 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Last week

Against the Spread: 9-5

Straight Up: 8-6

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence: 0-1

Medium Confidence: 4-0

Low Confidence: 2-1

No Confidence: 2-3

Upset Picks: 1-1

On the season

Against the Spread: 100-60-1 (.625)

Straight Up: 106-54-1 (.663)

Pick of the Week: 7-4

High Confidence: 7-7

Medium Confidence: 39-13

Low Confidence: 23-17-1

No Confidence: 24-19

Upset Picks: 13-12

Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 12

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 NO 265 31 16 32 19 4 0 80.65%
2 GB 212 36 17 33 8 3 2 79.74%
3 DEN 230 37 11 49 11 6 0 77.62%
4 KC 210 27 15 42 10 2 0 77.45%
5 NE 232 32 25 40 8 4 0 77.42%
6 PIT 259 29 20 45 14 5 0 77.42%
7 IND 252 34 22 39 16 6 1 77.30%
8 CHI 224 25 10 36 20 10 0 76.62%
9 SEA 211 27 21 37 9 5 1 76.53%
10 BAL 218 28 22 35 14 6 0 76.16%
11 DAL 216 28 20 36 18 2 1 76.01%
12 MIA 222 23 25 35 16 8 0 74.47%
13 SD 195 24 17 49 9 3 0 73.74%
14 ATL 207 25 18 45 15 6 1 73.19%
15 ARZ 198 23 18 55 7 1 0 73.18%
16 WAS 207 23 18 44 20 4 0 72.78%
17 SF 200 20 23 45 12 5 0 72.13%
18 NYG 210 25 10 52 21 9 0 71.87%
19 CAR 228 22 22 54 19 3 0 71.84%
20 PHI 223 26 19 50 25 4 0 71.76%
21 CIN 191 24 23 46 14 3 0 71.43%
22 HOU 196 21 22 49 15 3 0 70.92%
23 CLE 203 23 19 58 10 8 0 70.40%
24 TB 178 20 15 43 20 5 1 70.21%
25 DET 183 19 24 46 13 4 0 69.90%
26 STL 185 18 18 50 16 4 0 69.76%
27 NYJ 190 18 19 50 18 6 0 69.10%
28 TEN 166 19 14 53 14 4 2 68.01%
29 MIN 181 16 22 54 13 4 0 67.93%
30 JAX 182 18 15 57 22 6 0 66.67%
31 BUF 169 18 25 55 14 6 2 64.71%
32 OAK 149 16 13 64 20 2 0 62.50%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 MIA 175 18 20 41 19 8 1 68.44%
2 BUF 204 19 22 54 21 3 0 69.04%
3 ARZ 190 19 15 52 20 5 0 69.44%
4 DET 186 16 15 54 14 4 1 69.66%
5 DEN 201 24 20 59 12 4 1 70.09%
6 CLE 216 21 20 56 18 6 1 70.12%
7 PHI 209 27 17 59 16 6 0 70.66%
8 BAL 191 20 18 46 15 5 1 71.28%
9 KC 196 16 21 46 8 10 0 71.38%
10 WAS 186 26 15 55 9 3 0 72.11%
11 SF 189 23 10 45 21 5 0 72.35%
12 DAL 183 23 11 44 17 6 0 72.54%
13 MIN 196 25 15 50 14 4 0 72.70%
14 NYJ 185 29 18 54 7 1 0 72.79%
15 JAX 205 26 21 48 11 5 1 72.87%
16 HOU 221 24 15 48 23 5 0 72.92%
17 NE 216 23 20 38 19 11 0 73.09%
18 SD 189 23 14 46 10 7 1 73.10%
19 SEA 194 22 17 44 14 3 1 73.22%
20 PIT 217 27 24 48 14 1 1 73.49%
21 IND 212 30 11 51 15 7 0 74.23%
22 OAK 213 27 24 47 8 4 0 74.30%
23 STL 204 23 17 43 14 4 0 74.43%
24 NYG 211 28 21 40 18 3 0 74.45%
25 ATL 222 27 25 39 18 1 0 75.00%
26 CIN 236 23 23 41 15 6 1 75.07%
27 CHI 197 29 26 29 14 4 0 75.59%
28 TB 229 28 28 38 15 1 0 75.81%
29 GB 231 24 14 34 22 11 0 75.89%
30 CAR 240 33 21 45 17 3 0 76.04%
31 TEN 238 26 21 44 12 4 0 76.52%
32 NO 210 26 19 40 10 1 1 76.87%

 

Overall

1 DEN 7.52%
2 KC 6.07%
3 MIA 6.03%
4 BAL 4.88%
5 NE 4.33%
6 PIT 3.93%
7 GB 3.85%
8 NO 3.78%
9 ARZ 3.74%
10 DAL 3.48%
11 SEA 3.31%
12 IND 3.06%
13 PHI 1.10%
14 CHI 1.03%
15 WAS 0.68%
16 SD 0.63%
17 CLE 0.29%
18 DET 0.24%
19 SF -0.22%
20 ATL -1.81%
21 HOU -2.00%
22 NYG -2.59%
23 CIN -3.64%
24 NYJ -3.69%
25 CAR -4.21%
26 BUF -4.33%
27 STL -4.67%
28 MIN -4.77%
29 TB -5.60%
30 JAX -6.20%
31 TEN -8.51%
32 OAK -11.80%