2015 NFL Free Agency

Chicago Bears sign C Will Montgomery

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bears, Uncategorized

The Bears got a little younger, a little cheaper, and a little better at center this week. They released Roberto Garza, saving them 1.1 million on the cap, replacing him with Will Montgomery, who will make just 900K in 2015. Montgomery is no spring chicken, going into his age 32 season, part of why he was available for so little, but he’s younger than Garza, who is going into his age 36 season. He’s also better, grading out 15th among centers last year, while Garza graded out 21st.

Montgomery follows new Bears head coach John Fox over from Denver, where Montgomery made 8 starts last season and he’ll presumably be the starter in Chicago this season. Given that, this is a very good value for around the veteran’s minimum, especially since Montgomery happens to be a solid player. He’s graded out 18th, 5th, 15th, and 15th among centers over the past 4 seasons combined on Pro Football Focus, making 56 starts over that time period, including 3 at left guard.

Grade: A

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Indianapolis Colts sign S Dwight Lowery

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Colts, Uncategorized

This is quietly one of the best moves of the off-season as the Colts were able to add a starter at safety for around the veteran’s minimum. With LaRon Landry getting released as a cap casualty and Sergio Brown signing in Jacksonville, Lowery fills a significant need. Dwight Lowery has always been a solid starting safety when healthy. The Falcons signed Lowery cheap last off-season and there was a reason he was available so cheap, even though he graded out above average in every season from 2008-2012, including 18th among safeties in 2012. Lowery missed 20 games in 2012-2013 combined and he hadn’t played all 16 games since his rookie year in 2008.

Lowery proved to be a smart signing by the Falcons, as he graded out above average again and, more important, made all 16 starts. His health is still a concern long-term, but, if healthy, he should once again prove to be a smart signing again, this time by the Colts. I expected him to draw more interest in the open market after he managed to stay healthy last season, but that didn’t turn out to be the case. The Colts will be the beneficiary of that.

Grade: A

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New Orleans Saints extend G Jahri Evans

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Saints, Uncategorized

There was talk that the Saints would have to cut Jahri Evans to free up cap space to sign their rookie class. Evans was once one of the best guards in the NFL. From 2007-2013, he graded out in the top-30 among guards on Pro Football Focus in 7 straight years and the top-9 in 5 of those 7 years, maxing out at #1 overall in 2009. However, Evans slipped all the way to 46th out of 78 eligible in 2014 and, going into his age 32 season, didn’t seem to be worth his 7.5 million dollar salary for 2015, especially since the Saints could save 6 million dollars immediately on the cap and have him off their cap completely for 2016.

The Saints will not be doing that as this extension ensures he’ll stay a Saint, while still saving the Saints 4 million on the cap immediately. That’s the upside, the downside is Evans will still make 6 million dollars annually over the life of this contract and all money that’s paid out to him will show up on the cap at some point so he can’t be off of their cap completely for 2016. The 6 million dollar annual salary isn’t that bad, except for that the Saints guaranteed him 9.5 million so he’s assured to be on the roster for at least the next two seasons at a combined total of 12 million dollars. I understand why the Saints did this as they don’t want to keep bleeding talent and Evans could easily bounce back in 2015, but it’s risky to give a guy in his 30s off of a down year guaranteed money two years out into the future.

Grade: B-

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade S Dashon Goldson to the Washington Redskins

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Buccaneers, Commanders, Uncategorized

Trade for Tampa Bay: Goldson topped my list of cap casualty candidates for the Buccaneers. In fact, I was confused why he wasn’t cut earlier in the off-season, a move that would have saved the Buccaneers 4 million in cash and cap space. The Buccaneers signed Goldson to a 5-year, 41.25 million dollar contract 2 off-seasons ago and he proceeded to be one of the worst safeties in the game over the past 2 seasons. Goldson was Pro Football Focus’ 81st ranked safety out of 86 eligible in 2013 and their 87th ranked safety out of 88 eligible in 2014. He was better before signing that deal, back when he was in San Francisco, grading out 20th in 2012, but that’s still one of only two seasons in his career that he’s graded out above average.

Turns out there was a reason why the Buccaneers didn’t cut him earlier in the off-season. They thought they could get something for him and it turns out they could have. The compensation they get in this trade, a swap of their 7th round pick in 2016 for a 6th round pick that same year, is miniscule, but I still credit them for getting something for a guy who should not be on anyone’s roster at a 4 million dollar salary (the Buccaneers will pay the guaranteed portion of his salary, 4 million, as the terms of this trade).

Grade: A

Trade for Washington: While I think this was a great move for the Buccaneers, I think it’s the exact opposite for the Redskins. The Redskins had a serious need at the safety position, but that doesn’t mean they have to go out and pay 4 million and give up something in next year’s draft for a year of Dashon Goldson (he’ll be owed 8 million non-guaranteed in 2016). If the Redskins had signed Goldson to a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal, I wouldn’t have given it a good grade either. This is the same thing. Goldson simply isn’t a starting caliber player in the NFL anymore, especially going into his age 31 season.

Grade: C-

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Chicago Bears sign DE Ray McDonald

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bears, Uncategorized

McDonald was cut by the 49ers mid-season last year, even though he was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked 3-4 defensive end through 14 games. There’s a reason for that as McDonald was accused of violence against women twice in a 6 or so month span. However, the charges never stuck either time and he’s now suing his accuser, which suggests he’s not trying to hide from anything that happened. That alone doesn’t prove he didn’t do anything, but it’s never been proven that he did anything either.

With that in mind, I like this deal. It’s very low risk outside of possible PR concerns. McDonald’s base salary is the veteran’s minimum and he can make maximum 1.5 million, a steep decline from the 4.9 million he would have made in 2015 if not for the accusations. On the field, McDonald is worth much closer to 4.9 million than 1.5 million. He’s going into his age 31 season, but he’s been an every down starter for the 49ers over the past 4 seasons and he’s graded out above average in his last 5 seasons. In Chicago, he reunites with Vic Fangio, his defensive coordinator in San Francisco and fills a significant need at 3-4 defensive end. This was a good move by the Bears.

Grade: A-

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Dallas Cowboys re-sign MLB Rolando McClain

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Rolando McClain was one of the riskier signings on the open market this off-season, considering he was kicked off the team by the Raiders in 2012, has been arrested 3 times since entering the league in 2010, and was out of football entirely in 2013. However, the reward is obvious with him. Drafted 8th overall in 2010 by the Raiders, McClain came into the league with a ton of potential. McClain showed that potential early in his career, grading out above average in each of his first 3 seasons in the NFL, including 14th ranked in 2010 and 11th ranked in 2012.

The fact that he was kicked off the Raiders and was out of the league in 2013 despite all of his talent is very concerning, but McClain bounced back last season with the Cowboys, grading out 8th overall among middle linebackers. Only 26, he still has a very bright future if he can stay out of trouble off the field and with his coaches. I was expecting him to have a bigger free agent market than he did because of that. I didn’t expect anyone to guarantee him any money beyond 2015, but I expected him to get a multi-year deal. This one-year deal is worth just 3 million with another 1 million available in incentives and little guaranteed. This is about as low risk as it gets and their bet on McClain could continue paying out for the Cowboys.

Grade: A

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Philadelphia Eagles extend MLB DeMeco Ryans

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, Uncategorized

Ryans was originally scheduled to make 6.9 million in 2015. This extension is worth just 7.5 million over 2 years. However, the problem is that 6.25 million of this new deal is guaranteed, which means it’s essentially fully guaranteed (the Eagles are highly unlikely to cut Ryans next off-season with guaranteed money still owed to him in 2015). Ryan’s original 6.9 million dollar salary in a 2015 contract year was non-guaranteed and the Eagles could have cut him with no penalty and saved 6.9 million in cash and cap space.

With that in mind, they should have cut him, rather than giving him this extension. Even forgetting the fact that Ryans isn’t necessary any more with the Kiko Alonso trade (Alonso and Mychal Kendricks are more than capable of manning the two interior linebacker spots if both are healthy), Ryans just isn’t that good. He’s coming off a torn Achilles that limited him to 8 games last season and he’s going into his age 31 season. He wasn’t horrible in those 8 games in 2014, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 53rd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible in 2013, his last healthy season. He also hasn’t graded out above average since 2011. For a team with limited cap space left, to the point where they’re shopping Evan Mathis, one of the best guards in the NFL, this move doesn’t make a lot of sense, outside of the fact that Ryans will provide depth and veteran leadership.

Grade: D

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Cleveland Browns sign WR Dwayne Bowe

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Browns, Uncategorized

From 2007-2012, Dwayne Bowe caught 415 passes for 5728 yards and 39 touchdowns in 88 games in his career, despite playing with the likes of Brodie Croyle, Damon Huard, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko, Kyle Orton, and Brady Quinn at quarterback. That earned him a 5-year, 56 million dollar deal, but it’s been all downhill for Bowe over the past 2 seasons since signing that deal. Despite playing with Alex Smith over the past two seasons, who has been easily the best quarterback he’s had in his career, but Bowe has put up 57/673/5 and 60/754/0 slash lines in 2013 and 2014 respectively.

I thought he was a nice buy low candidate on the open market this off-season, but the Browns don’t seem to know what that means. This deal will pay Bowe 12.5 million over the next 2 seasons, an annual average of 6.25 million. That means that Bowe will still be the 18th highest paid wide receiver in the NFL, which is ridiculous considering he hasn’t been good since 2012, he’s going into his age 31 season, and he’s gotten criticism for his work ethic in recent years. Something in the 2-year, 8 million dollar range with 4 million guaranteed was what I was expecting and a deal that would have been much more appropriate.

There’s bounce back potential for him, but, given how much they’re paying him, there’s little upside on this deal. I get that the Browns had a need at wide receiver and money to spend, but that’s no excuse for an overpay like this, especially considering Jabaal Sheard, one of the Browns’ best defensive players last year, signed for cheaper than this in New England this off-season. Bowe could take away valuable practice and game reps from a rookie on a young team next season. The worst part might be that the Browns, for whatever reason, guaranteed 9 million. Because Bowe is unlikely to be cut after 1 year and 9 million, that basically means this 2-year, 12.5 million dollar deal is essentially fully guaranteed. It’s a borderline hilariously bad contract this far into free agency.

Grade: D

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Denver Broncos sign S Darian Stewart

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Broncos, Uncategorized

The Broncos were not expected to re-sign free safety Rahim Moore this off-season (and they didn’t). That’s because the Broncos already had big contract defensive backs in their secondary around the free safety spot, in the form of Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, and TJ Ward. However, the Broncos did need a replace for Moore, who signed with the Texans on a surprisingly cheap 3-year, 12 million dollar deal that I thought was one of the better values of free agency. Stewart comes even cheaper than Moore, as the total value of this deal (4.5 million over 2 years) is similar to the annual value of Moore’s deal, though that’s with good reason as he doesn’t nearly have Moore’s upside.

However, he’s a solid cheap replacement whose deficiencies can be masked by the rest of this secondary. Stewart, a 2010 undrafted free agent, was forced into a starting role too early in 2011, grading out 82nd out of 87 eligible safeties that season. Stewart has rehabbed his value in the last two seasons though. In 2013, he graded out only slightly below average on 583 snaps and then in 2014 he graded out above average for the first time since his rookie season on 782 snaps (14 starts). He’s a fringe starter, but he’s a solid, cheap signing by a team that has a lot of talent all over the field that they have to fit under the cap in the next couple of off-seasons.

Grade: B+

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Pittsburgh Steelers re-sign OLB James Harrison

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Steelers, Uncategorized

Harrison was reportedly choosing between Pittsburgh and Tennessee. Even though his former defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is now in Tennessee, Pittsburgh always seemed like the most logical choice for Harrison. Pittsburgh is the better of the two teams. They offer the easiest path to playing time, as he’d be stuck behind big ticket free agents Derrick Morgan and Brian Orakpo. Pittsburgh has a real lack of talent at 3-4 outside linebacker following Jason Worilds’ retirement and Harrison should be the starter opposite the inconsistent Jarvis Jones. A return to Pittsburgh also meant a return to the team where he’s played 10 of his 11 career seasons and would give him a chance to add to his Steeler legacy.

Given all of that, this is the right move by Harrison and a great move by the Steelers, who would have been stuck starting career reserve Arthur Moats opposite Jones with little to no proven depth at the position. Harrison gets added to an outside linebacker crew that should feature him, Jones, Moats, and likely an early round rookie. The Steelers’ depth problems at outside linebacker were why the Steelers re-sign Harrison last season in the first place. Harrison was out of the league to start last season, but he rejoined the Steelers for week 4 after they needed help at the rush linebacker position and he proved to be a huge pickup, grading out 10th at his position on just 439 snaps. No one played fewer snaps at his position and graded out better.

He’s going into his age 37 season so the end of the road is right around the corner, but he proved last season that he still has something left in the tank. He has graded out above average in every season in Pro Football Focus’ history (since 2007), including last season and a 2013 season with the Bengals where he was Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker on just 383 snaps as a base run stopping outside linebacker. No one played fewer snaps and graded out better at the position that season, making it two different seasons that could be said about him and at two different positions. Harrison will get more than the minimum this season, but he deserves it and the Steelers are still hardly breaking the bank for him. This deal is worth 2.75 million over 2 years with nothing guaranteed beyond a 500K signing bonus so it’s low risk and pretty much all upside.

Grade: A

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