Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

October 16, 2021 stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bears, NFL Picks, Packers

Green Bay Packers (4-1) at Chicago Bears (3-2)

The Bears are somehow 3-2, but their three wins haven’t been that impressive. They beat a middling Bengals team by 3 in a game in which they won the turnover battle by 3, but lost the yards per play battle by 1.22, which is much more predictive than turnover margin. They beat a Lions team that is 0-5 on the season. And last week they beat a Raiders team that needed two overtime wins to get to 3-1 and that was likely distracted by the situation with head coach Jon Gruden. Meanwhile, the Bears two losses came in uncompetitive games against the Rams and Browns.

Their once dominant defense is not nearly as good as it once was, losing key personnel over the past few off-seasons and dealing with injuries to key players this season, including both Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack, who figure to be noticeably limited this week even if they can suit up. Overall, they rank 13th in yards per play allowed and it’s not hard to see how that would get worse if Hicks and/or Mack missed significant time, while their offense ranks 28th in first down rate. They are probably in better shape with rookie Justin Fields under center rather than Andy Dalton, but he also hasn’t been the spark this offense needs and he has a very underwhelming offensive supporting cast, in large part due to key injuries at the offensive tackle and running back positions.

However, I think the public realizes the Bears are not as good as their record, as they remain 6-point home underdogs against the Packers. The Packers are 4-1, but they haven’t been as good as their record and, unlike the Bears, I don’t think the public realizes that. Two of their wins came on last second field goals, while their other two wins came in games in which they struggled to separate at home from inferior teams in the Steelers and Lions. And of course, their week one blowout loss in New Orleans can’t be completely ignored yet.

It’s easy to think this is the same Packers team as a year ago, but with left tackle David Bakhtiari, cornerback Jaire Alexander, and edge defender Za’Darius Smith all out, this just isn’t as talented of a team as a year ago. Those are three of the best players in the NFL at their respective positions and the most important Packers outside of Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, so they can’t just be replaced, even if the Packers have managed to continue winning in relatively unimpressive fashion. On top of that, Rodgers isn’t quite playing at his MVP level from a year ago.

This is still a good team, but they shouldn’t be regarded as if they were the same team as a year ago. Rodgers also has about a 10 point drop in QB rating on the road in his career, which is well above average for a quarterback, which is a concern if you want to take the Packers as 6 point road favorites here in Chicago. There isn’t enough here for the Bears to be worth betting, but they should be the better side for pick ‘em purposes, as this is more likely than not to be a close game.

Green Bay Packers 24 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago +6

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

October 16, 2021 stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 6 NFL Picks, Giants, NFL Picks, Rams

Los Angeles Rams (4-1) at New York Giants (1-4)

This line shifted from favoring the Rams by 6.5 points on the early line to now favoring them by 9 this week, crossing the key number of 7, a margin which decides about 10% of games. That shift is likely primarily due to the Rams winning by 9 in Seattle and the Giants losing by 24 in Dallas, but it’s hard to put much stock into the final score of either of those games because both games featured a quarterback getting injured and leaving the game at a time the game was much closer. In the Rams case, they were up just 9-7 in the third quarter and the Seahawks had the ball when Russell Wilson suffered a finger injury that hampered him before knocking him out of the game, while the Giants had played the Cowboys to a 10-10 tie in the second quarter when Daniel Jones left with a concussion and did not return.

Jones is set to return for the Giants this week and, while they will be without top wide receiver Kenny Golladay and featured running back Saquon Barkley, Golladay’s absence should be more than offset by the return of both Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard, who missed each of the past two games, while Barkley’s absence alone isn’t enough to move this line as significantly as it did, especially since he hasn’t been 100% all season anyway. I also thought the early line was too high to begin with at 6.5 and, even with the Giants missing key players to injury, my calculated line this week has the Rams favored by just 5.5 points.

The Giants are just 1-4, but two of their losses were very close games that could have been wins, while their loss to the Cowboys could have been a lot closer had the Giants not lost their quarterback in the middle of the game, even though the Cowboys have been one of the best teams in the league thus far. Daniel Jones doesn’t get a lot of respect from the national media, but he played pretty well before suffering a serious hamstring injury last year, when you take into account the brutal schedule he faced and how many drops his receivers had.

This year, it’s showing up more in the statistics, as he ranks 10th in QBR and 8th in yards per attempt, despite an underwhelming and injury plagued supporting cast. Despite his statistical success, he’s still regarded as barely better than a replacement level quarterback, with this line only shifting about 1.5 points when it became clear that Jones would be able to play this week, even though backup Mike Glennon looked like a clear downgrade last week. The Giants have an underwhelming roster overall and Jones’ play hasn’t translated to wins, but they’ve been competitive in all but one of their games with Jones healthy and they should be able to keep this one relatively close. This isn’t a big play, but this line is inflated.

Los Angeles Rams 27 New York Giants 21

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +9

Confidence: Medium

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

October 16, 2021 stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 6 NFL Picks, Cowboys, NFL Picks, Patriots

Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at New England Patriots (2-3)

The Patriots are 2-3 with their only wins coming against the Jets and Texans, and the latter was a near loss, but they also could have easily beaten the Dolphins and the Buccaneers, who beat the Patriots by a combined three points in games in which the Patriots won the first down rate and yards per play battle, but lost three fumbles on likely scoring drives across the two games. They didn’t look good last week against the Texans, but there was likely a hangover effect from their near win over the Buccaneers the week before and the Patriots were also missing four offensive linemen. They will still be banged up upfront this week, but they should at least get left guard Michael Onwenu back, which will be a big re-addition.

With Onwenu back, the Patriots are about a middling team, but the problem is they will face the Cowboys, who have been one of the best teams in the league thus far. Their offense has been dominant in Dak Prescott’s return from injury, ranking second in first down rate, while their defense has been better than a year ago, even if only by default. This line, favoring the Cowboys by 3.5 is about right, as my calculated line is Dallas -4. I am taking the Cowboys for now, but there isn’t enough line value to take them with any confidence and, depending on injuries, I may switch my pick, as both the Cowboys’ stud left tackle Tyron Smith and their top cornerback Trevon Diggs are considered gametime decisions.

Dallas Cowboys 27 New England Patriots 23

Pick against the spread: Dallas -3.5

Confidence: None

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

October 15, 2021October 16, 2021 stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 6 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Raiders

Las Vegas Raiders (3-2) at Denver Broncos (3-2)

In a normal situation, I would like the Raiders a lot this week, as 4-point underdogs in Denver. The Broncos got out to an 3-0 start, beating an easy schedule, but also winning by an average of 16.7 points. However, they have lost a lot of players to injury as the season has gone on and haven’t been the same team in back-to-back losses to the Ravens and Steelers. Most notably, wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, edge defender Bradley Chubb, and inside linebacker Josey Jewell have all gone down since the start of the season.

The Raiders have also lost back-to-back games since a 3-0 start, but they don’t have as many key players missing due to injury and have the slight edge in my roster rankings overall, despite this line suggesting that the Broncos are the better of the two teams. The Broncos are also in a tough spot as they have to turn around and play a tougher game on a short week next week and favorites cover at just a 41.9% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football.

However, this is not a normal situation, with Raiders head coach Jon Gruden resigning mid-week. This is not the first time a team has gone to an interim head coach mid-season, but this is really an unprecedented situation. Some teams find success after going to an interim head coach mid-season, but that typically happens when the previous head coach was ineffective and/or disliked, which was not the case for Jon Gruden up until the revelations of the past week made him incapable of leading this locker room.

Gruden was just 22-31 with the Raiders, but usually got the most out of an underwhelming roster and most notably led the Raiders to a 17-10 record in one score games. Gruden’s roster management decisions have been questionable at best, but the Raiders undoubtedly have a worse head coaching situation now than they did a couple weeks ago. We may see a better effort from the Raiders this week than they had last week against the Bears, when the Gruden situation was likely a distraction, but I don’t want to bet on it, even if we are getting good line value. The Raiders are the pick for pick ‘em purposes, but aren’t bettable given the uncertainty over how they will respond.

Denver Broncos 19 Las Vegas Raiders 17

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +4

Confidence: Low

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

October 15, 2021 stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 6 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Steelers

Seattle Seahawks (2-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3)

The Seahawks are in trouble, sitting at 2-3 in the best division in the NFL, having now lost starting quarterback Russell Wilson for an extended period of time with a finger injury. Wilson hasn’t missed a start since joining the Seahawks in 2012 and has been about as valuable to the Seahawks as any quarterback has been to their team over that time frame. That being said, I do like the Seahawks chances of covering this week in Pittsburgh, as 5-point underdogs.

The Seahawks’ 2-3 record is more the product of a tough schedule and they’ve gotten about league average play from their defense and special teams, so the rest of this roster isn’t terrible. Their offense will obviously take a big hit without Wilson, but teams tend to play at 110% in their first game with a backup quarterback in the lineup and they have a solid offensive supporting cast, led by a talented duo of wide receivers, so the Seahawks aren’t in bad shape, facing a Steelers team that I have about four points below average.

The Steelers’ offense is no better than a year ago and, in fact may be worse, while their defense is still good, but not good enough to offset their offensive performance like they were last season, when the Steelers won a lot of close games against easy competition. The Steelers won week 1 in Buffalo, which was a big surprise at the time, but given how they’ve played in their past four games, only beating a banged up Broncos team, it’s pretty safe to say that week one result was a fluke.

The Steelers shouldn’t be favored by 5 points over anyone but the worst teams in the league, which is not what the Seahawks are, even without Wilson. My calculated line has the Steelers as just 1.5 point favorites, so there is enough line value to take the Seahawks confidently, with about a third of games decided by 5 points or fewer. I didn’t have any one game I loved this week, so by default this is my Pick of the Week, but that doesn’t mean the Seahawks aren’t a strong value this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Seattle Seahawks 16

Pick against the spread: Seattle +5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

October 15, 2021 stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 6 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Panthers, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (2-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-2)

The Vikings are just 2-3, but their three losses have come by a combined 11 points, giving them a positive point differential of +4, despite the fact that the Vikings have faced one of the toughest schedules in the league, 2nd in terms of opponent’s DVOA. The Vikings have also missed some key players to injury that have since returned, with top linebacker Anthony Barr, starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw, and running back Dalvin Cook missing two games, four games, and four games respectively.

All three of those players will be in the lineup for this matchup with the Panthers, who, despite their 3-2 record, are significantly worse than every team the Vikings have faced except for the Lions. The Panthers got out to a 3-0 start, but they took advantage of facing the Jets and Texans, two of the worst teams in the league, who both kept the game relatively competitive, as well as the inconsistent Saints.

Since that 3-0 start, they have lost key players to injury like top cornerback Jaycee Horn, stud feature back Christian McCaffrey, and every down linebacker Shaq Thompson and, with the schedule getting tougher, they have lost to the Cowboys in a game that was not as close as the final score, with the Cowboys winning the first down rate battle and yards per play battle by 7.09% and -1.99, respectively, and then they lost at home to the Eagles, who are middling at best.

In their certain state, I have the Panthers 2.5 points below average, so we’re getting some line value with the Vikings as 2.5 point road favorites. My calculated line is Minnesota -3.5, which might not seem like much line value except for the fact that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. In a game in which the Vikings basically just need to cover to win, they are worth a play as they are the noticeably better team and should be able to take care of business, even on the road.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -2.5

Confidence: Medium

Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Football Team: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

October 15, 2021October 16, 2021 stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 6 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Commanders, NFL Picks

Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at Washington Football Team (2-3)

The Chiefs are 2-3 right now, but there isn’t much real reason for concern. Their issues have almost entirely been concentrated on the defensive side of the ball, as they lead the league in first down rate, but also in yards per play allowed, and the offensive side of the ball is much more predictive week-to-week. The Chiefs have also been better on offense relative to how bad they’ve been on defense, as there is a bigger gap in first down rate between the Chiefs and the 4th ranked Chargers than there is between the Chargers and the 25th ranked Raiders.

The Chiefs have also faced a relatively tough schedule, with the Browns, Chargers, Ravens, and Bills all likely being playoff qualifiers and their only relatively easy game coming against the Eagles, who aren’t a bad team either. Despite that schedule, the Chiefs could easily be 4-1 if not for the turnover margin. Turnover margin is one of the least predictive metrics in the league and the Chiefs have the second worst turnover margin in the league at -7, which has cost them at least a couple games.

That would be unlikely to continue for any team, but that’s especially the case for the Chiefs, as having an elite quarterback is one of the few ways to consistently fare well in the turnover margin. Overall, the Chiefs were +23 in turnover margin in Mahomes’ first 3 seasons in the league prior to this season. Even this season, most of Mahomes’ interceptions have been off of drops or tipped balls, which are unlikely to continue recurring at this rate.

Washington, meanwhile, could be 0-5 right now, if not for close wins over below average teams in the Giants and Falcons, with their three losses coming by a combined 37 points. They are starting a backup quarterback on offense, while their defense hasn’t been nearly as good as a year ago, as they aren’t getting the same level of play out of their back seven. Their offense could be in even more trouble than usual this week, as their injuries are piling up.

Washington already lost top offensive lineman Brandon Scherff a couple weeks ago, but they will also be without promising rookie right tackle Samuel Cosmi, while their receiving corps will be without #2 receiver Curtis Samuel, tight end Logan Thomas, and could be without #1 receiver Terry McLaurin, who could be limited even if he plays, after injuring his hamstring in practice on Friday. That will make life even tougher for backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke.

The public doesn’t seem to be buying the Chiefs’ record, betting the Chiefs as touchdown favorites, even though this line has shifted up from Kansas City -5.5 on the early line last season, so we’re not getting great line value with the Chiefs. However, they should be able to handle this game pretty easily, as they still have a dominant offense and this is their easiest game of the season thus far. This isn’t a big play, but the Chiefs are still undervalued, as my calculated line has them as 9.5 point favorites, so they’re worth betting.

Update: Some -6.5s have popped up. This is a bigger play at this number. As long as the Chiefs can avoid fluky turnovers, there still isn’t a team in the league I trust more to score a touchdown on any given drive, so it’ll be tough for this underwhelming Washington team to keep it within one score.

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Washington Football Team 24

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -6.5

Confidence: High

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

October 15, 2021 stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bengals, Lions, NFL Picks

Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Detroit Lions (0-5)

The Bengals took the Packers to overtime last week, but even though the Packers were missing several key players due to injury and even though Aaron Rodgers typically struggles on the road, relative to how well he plays at home, the Bengals were still lucky to even take that game to overtime, as the Packers won the first down rate battle and yards per play battle by 5.12% and 1.75 respectively. The Packers had 12 drives, excluding end of half drives, and got into scoring range on 9 of them, but had to settle for 7 field goals and missed 3 of them, keeping the game close, despite the Packers dominating in key statistical metrics.

Even with the Packers included, the Bengals have still faced one of the easiest schedules in the league this season, the 4th easiest by DVOA, and, while they are 3-2, they rank just 27th in first down rate and 11th in yards per play allowed, which are the most predictive offensive and defensive metrics respectively. On top of that, just one of their three wins have come by more than a field goal and they have lost to the Bears, while nearly losing at home to the Jaguars. My roster rankings have them as more middling than the statistics show, but either way, they are no better than an average team.

The Lions, meanwhile, are winless, but they’ve come close in some of their games, losing on game winning field goals twice and failing at the goal line in a one score loss in another game. Their defense is atrocious, ranking 31st in yards per play allowed, but their offense has ranked 6th in first down rate, despite an above average schedule (12th in DVOA) and they could easily pull the upset here at home in one of their easiest games of the season thus far.

Even if they don’t win outright, we are getting 3.5 points of cushion with the Lions and about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. The Bengals could also be flat in between a long overtime loss to a tough opponent and a much tougher game against the Ravens on deck, which could lead to them overlooking an 0-5 Lions team that has been more competitive than their record. This isn’t a huge play, but my calculated line is Cincinnati -1, so between the line value and the good spot, there is enough here for the Lions to be worth betting.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Detroit Lions 23

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

October 13, 2021 stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 6 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Eagles, NFL Picks, Panthers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)

The Buccaneers are obviously one of the best teams in the league, but they are dealing with more injuries than they were a year ago, when they were one of the healthiest teams in the league. In total, they are missing three week one starters from their secondary, top tight end Rob Gronkowski, and now the loss of one of the top linebackers in the league, Lavonte David, who will miss his first game of the season this week. The Buccaneers are coming off of a blowout win over the Dolphins, but the Dolphins are one of the worst teams in the league right now and could be 0-5, while the Buccaneers’ previous two games were a convincing road loss against the Rams and a near defeat against a middling Patriots team in New England.

Despite that, they are favored by a touchdown on the road against an Eagles team that has been better than most think this season. They are just 2-3, but their losses are all against above average teams in the 49ers, Chiefs, and Cowboys, while their two wins have come in blowout fashion against a below average Falcons team and a close win against a decent Panthers team.

My roster rankings have them as a middling team overall, especially with the re-addition of left tackle Jordan Mailata, who returned last week from a two-game absence, unsurprisingly their two least competitive games of the season (Philadelphia and Kansas City). Prior to his absence, the Eagles played the 49ers close and last week he returned for their victory over the Panthers.

They are still missing their top edge defender Brandon Graham, as well as a trio of starting offensive linemen, Lane Johnson, Brandon Brooks, and Isaac Seumalo, but they have better depth upfront than a year ago and are not a bad offensive line now with Mailata back. They are also getting good play from young quarterback Jalen Hurts and this young receiving corps, while also playing solid overall defense as well. My calculated line has the Buccaneers favored by just 3.5 points, so there is value with Philadelphia +7. This is worth a play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Philadelphia Eagles 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +7

Confidence: Medium