2021 Week 4 NFL Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at New England Patriots (1-2)

This is arguably the most anticipated regular season matchup of all time with Tom Brady returning to New England with his new team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers won the Super Bowl in Tom Brady’s first season in Tampa Bay, thanks to the support of a strong supporting cast that was legitimately a quarterback away before Brady’s arrival, while the Patriots have struggled to find success, going 7-9 in a rebuilding year last season and starting this season a disappointing 1-2, including a pair of home losses as favorites, despite a big off-season addition of talent.

The Patriots could easily be 2-1 right now though, as they won the first down rate (+2.56%) and yards per play (+0.63) battle in a 1-point home loss to the Dolphins, a game in which they fumbled away two likely scoring drives. Their loss to the Saints last week looked bad, but it’s very possible they were caught looking forward to this game. The same could also be true of the Buccaneers, who lost last week in Los Angeles to the Rams, but the Buccaneers were also playing a better team, which explains their loss more, and overall I think this game is more meaningful for the Patriots, who still have many former teammates and coaches of Tom Brady, while the Buccaneers only have a few former Patriots. 

I do expect a strong effort from the Buccaneers because they are coming off a loss and Tom Brady is 47-22 ATS all-time after a loss, which is what deters me from betting on the Patriots in a big way, but that record is not as impressive as touchdown or more favorites on the road and this line has shot up to seven in the aftermath of last week’s results, with the public and odds makers clearly souring on the Patriots more than the Buccaneers. My calculated line is Tampa Bay -4, so we’re getting enough line value for the Patriots to be at least worth a play at +7. This bet would probably increase if the Patriots finally got right tackle Trent Brown back healthy.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 New England Patriots 23

Pick against the spread: New England +7

Confidence: Medium

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-1)

The Chargers pulled a big upset win over the Chiefs last week, but they needed to win the turnover battle by 4 to do so, which is not predictive week-to-week. In more predictive metrics, the Chargers had a -7.92% first down rate differential. The Chargers were already overrated going into that game as they have just two wins by multiple scores in their past nine wins and they came against the 1-15 Jaguars and the Chiefs’ backups, but now the Chargers are more overrated.

The Raiders are not as good as their 3-0 record, as the Steelers and Dolphins are below average opponents, while their win over the Ravens came in overtime in a game in which they had a big advantage as a pacific time zone home team in a night game, in their first game in Las Vegas in front of fans. However, they are still about a point better than the Chargers in my roster rankings and the Chargers should only get about a point for homefield advantage anyway, perhaps less against the Raiders, who have a large fanbase in Los Angeles. The Chargers could also be a little flat after last week’s upset win as favorites are 32-47 ATS since 1989 after a divisional win as touchdown underdogs or more. There is a good chance the Raiders are able to win this one outright and if not, I like getting a field goal of protection in case they lose.

Las Vegas Raiders 23 Los Angeles Chargers 20 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +3

Confidence: High

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (3-0) at Los Angeles Rams (3-0)

The Rams are getting all of the attention for their 3-0 start, but the Cardinals have been equally impressive, if not more so, actually ranking slightly higher overall than the Rams in more predictive metrics. Despite that, the Rams are being favored by 4 points at home as if they are a significantly better team. Even if these two teams are about even, the Rams should be favored by no more than a field goal. That might not seem like a big difference, but about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and the Rams also aren’t in a great spot either. 

I know this is a matchup of undefeated divisional rivals, but the Rams have beaten the Cardinals 8 straight times since Sean McVay arrived and this game in sandwiched between their big win over the Buccaneers last week and a short week against the Seahawks on Thursday Night Football (favorites cover at a 41.9% rate before a Thursday game), so this could be a little bit of a trap game for the Rams, especially since they are expected to win relatively easily, despite their opponents also being one of the top teams in the league. I don’t put much stock in the recent matchups between these teams because this is a different Cardinals team, so there is enough here for me to take the Cardinals for a small play. The most likely results of this game are either team winning by 3 or winning by 1 and all four of those results would cover this spread.

Los Angeles Rams 24 Arizona Cardinals 23

Pick against the spread: Arizona +4

Confidence: Medium

Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)

The Steelers have lost at home in back-to-back weeks to the Raiders and Bengals. Injuries have been part of the problem and they will get their top-2 edge rushers TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith back this week, but their problems go beyond their injuries, as their offense remains one of the worst in the league, while their defense isn’t quite as good as a year ago and can’t carry this offense like it could a year ago, when they won a lot of close games against an easy schedule. It’s a tough task to ask the Steelers to go to Green Bay and be competitive with the Packers, who have bounced back in a big way since their shocking week one blowout loss against the Saints. 

The Packers aren’t as good as a year ago as Aaron Rodgers isn’t quite playing at a career best level and key players like David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, and Za’Darius Smith are out with injury, but I still have them favored by 9 points at home over the Steelers, before even taking into account how dominant the Packers have been at home with Aaron Rodgers, going 45-22 ATS at home in games with fans when Rodgers starts and finishes the game. This isn’t a big bet, but as long as this line is under a touchdown, the Packers are worth a play.

Green Bay Packers 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -6.5

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)

The Saints have easily been the most unpredictable team in the league thus far this season, with their two wins coming by 35 points and 15 points and their one loss coming by 19 points. It’s hard to figure them out, but not as hard as their final scores would suggest, as overall the Saints have averaged out to be about a middling team, with one of the better defenses in the league, but also one of the less efficient offenses, even in the Saints’ victories. 

They’re also growing more short handed by the week, adding stud left tackle Terron Armstead to a group of absences that includes top wide receiver Michael Thomas, talented kicker Will Lutz, top interior defender David Onyemata, talented center Erik McCoy, starting linebacker Kwon Alexander, and starting defensive end Marcus Davenport, and they’ve yet to put together back-to-back good weeks, so this line favoring them by a full touchdown over the Giants seems a little high. 

The Giants haven’t won a game yet, but they have played their last two games close and  they won the yards per play battle in both, so they could easily be 2-1 right now. We’re not getting a ton of line value with the Giants, as my calculated line has them as 6-point underdogs, but the Saints could be flat again after last week’s big week, like they were in week 2 against Carolina, especially since they are making their home debut in week 4. 

I mentioned this last week a few times, but teams tend to let their guard down in a home opener in week 3 or later and tend not to cover the spread, doing so only about 36.4% of the time. That could easily be the case for a team that will be exhausted from spending the first month of the season on the road, battling injuries, coming off of a big win, and facing a winless opponent that has come close in back-to-back weeks. This isn’t a big play, but the Giants are worth betting if you can get a full touchdown.

New Orleans Saints 17 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +7

Confidence: Medium

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

The Cowboys have proven they have among the best offenses in the league. A year ago, they finished 13th in first down rate despite missing their starting quarterback and their top-3 offensive linemen for most of the season, including a 4th place rank through 4th games before the injury to Dak Prescott, and this season they have picked up right where they left off, leading the league in first down rate through 3 games this season. Their defense isn’t good, but they are less bad than the offense is good, they are better than a year ago, and offense is the more predictive side of the ball, so the Cowboys are in pretty good shape going forward. Overall, I have them ranked 10th, about 3.5 points above average.

The Panthers are 3-0, but I am not sold on them, as two of their wins have come against possibly the two worst teams in the league and not in overly convincing fashion, while their win over the Saints could easily be a fluke as a result of the Saints being flat off of a huge win the week before. Their defense could be for real, but I am not sold on Sam Darnold or this offensive line against tougher competition, especially without Christian McCaffrey. The Cowboys aren’t tougher competition on the defensive side, but it’ll be tough for this Panthers offense to match points with the Cowboys’ offense if the Cowboys offense can predictably have the edge over the Panthers’ largely untested defense.

I still have the Panthers about 2.5 points below average, giving us a calculated line of Dallas -8.5 at home, which means we’re getting good line value with the Cowboys as 4.5 point favorites. The Cowboys are also in a good spot because teams tend to carry over the momentum from a big Monday Night Football win, covering at about a 60% rate the week following a win by 20 or more points, which the Cowboys had over the Eagles last week. Without another great option this week, the Cowboys are my Pick of the Week.

Dallas Cowboys 31 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)

I would have liked the Bengals a lot more in this matchup a week ago. The Bengals were favored by 6.5 points on the early line and were in a good spot, as non-divisional home favorites of 6 points or more are 19-7-2 ATS all-time on a short week. This week, the Bengals are favored by 7.5 points, which doesn’t seem like a huge swing, but about 1 in 10 games are decided by a touchdown exactly and that line movement comes despite the Bengals losing safety Jessie Bates and cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, two key parts of their defense, to injury last week, adding to an injury list that also includes wide receiver Tee Higgins. The Bengals beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh somewhat easily last week, but the Steelers are an overrated and injury plagued team, so the injury absences are more important than the result of last week’s game when it comes to projecting this matchup. 

We are getting some line value with the Bengals though, as they are still a decent team, even with their injury absences. I’ve thought the Bengals were underrated for a few weeks and they could be 3-0 if Joe Burrow didn’t uncharacteristically throw interceptions in the fourth quarter of a close loss to the Bengals. My calculated line is Cincinnati -12, so, even though we’re not getting great line value, the Bengals are still worth a small bet because of how good of a spot they are in. It’s very tough for an inferior team to cover against a superior team on the road out of the division on a short week.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 14

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -7.5

Confidence: Medium