49ers

San Francisco 49ers sign RB Reggie Bush

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, 49ers, Uncategorized

Bush became a solid starter from 2011-2013 with the Dolphins and Lions, averaging 222 carries for 1026 yards and 5 touchdowns and 44 catches for 365 yards and 2 touchdowns over that time period. Those days appear behind him now though, as he heads into his age 30 season, coming off of a season where he was more of a complementary back behind Joique Bell. Bush rushed for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns on 76 carries (3.91 YPC) in 11 games and caught 40 passes for 253 yards. He fills a need at running back behind Carlos Hyde, but he’s an underwhelming signing at 2.5 million.

Grade: C

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San Francisco 49ers sign CB Shareece Wright

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, 49ers, Uncategorized

The 49ers needed starting cornerback help after losing both Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox this off-season. The problem is that Wright has proven over the past 2 seasons that he’s not a starting caliber cornerback. Wright was a 3rd round pick in 2011 and barely played in his first 2 seasons in the NFL, playing a combined 124 snaps in 2011-2012, but he’s been a starter over the last 2 seasons. In 2013, he was Pro Football Focus’ 103rd ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible.

Going into 2014, the Chargers brought in Jason Verrett in the first round of the draft and Brandon Flowers through free agency to send Wright to a #3 cornerback role, but an injury to Verrett forced Wright to play 853 snaps and make 14 starts. He once again struggled, grading out 105th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks. This is just a one-year deal, so it can’t hurt the 49ers too much, but he’s not worth 3 million over a year with another million attainable through incentives. He’s worth closer to the minimum. If the 49ers have to rely on him as a starter opposite a hopefully healthy Tramaine Brock, they’ll have serious issues in coverage this season.

Grade: C-

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San Francisco 49ers sign WR Torrey Smith

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, 49ers, Uncategorized

If you can’t beat them, take their receivers I guess. The 49ers now have both of the Ravens’ starting wide receivers from when the Ravens beat them in the Super Bowl two years ago. Torrey Smith has played all 64 games since he’s been in the NFL, starting the last 62 of them, and he’s been decently productive with 213 catches for 3591 yards and 30 touchdowns. Only going into his age 26 season, Smith is a fantastic deep threat, but he’s not particularly good at anything else. He’s still an inconsistent route runner and has caught just 117 passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He’s also never graded out higher than 37th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in any of his 4 seasons in the league.

I expected him to be paid somewhere in the range of what Golden Tate (5-year, 31 million with 13.25 million guaranteed) and Eric Decker (5-year, 36.25 million with 15 million guaranteed) got last off-season. I also thought that either of those deals would be an overpay. Instead, Smith exceeded both of those contract, getting 40 million over 5 years with 22 million guaranteed. This is way too much money for someone of Smith’s skill set as he’s more of a complementary receiver than a #1 guy. I like the fit of Smith in San Francisco, filling a wide receiver need and complementing Colin Kaepernick’s arm strength and Anquan Boldin’s possession ability well with his speed and deep ball ability, but not at this price.

Grade: C

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San Francisco 49ers sign DE Darnell Dockett

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, 49ers, Uncategorized

The Cardinals cut Darnell Dockett last week, saving 6.8 million on the cap by avoiding paying him a non-guaranteed 6.8 million dollar salary. Dockett isn’t getting nearly that much with San Francisco, as he signed for 7.5 million over 2 years with just 2 million in the first year guaranteed. However, that’s still too much. Anything more than a minimum deal with incentives for Dockett would have been too much. Dockett is going into his age 34 season after missing all of 2014 with a torn ACL, but that’s not the only problem.

He wasn’t that good before the injury either as he was perennially one of the NFL’s most overrated players, particularly struggling mightily against the run. From 2007-2013, he graded out below average in 6 of 7 seasons, including 26th out of 28 eligible 3-4 defensive ends in 2008, 31st out of 39 eligible in 2009, 34th of out 42 eligible in 2010, and dead last among eligible in 2012. The 49ers have a need at the 3-4 defensive end position with Ray McDonald getting kicked off the team with off-the-field problems and Justin Smith considering retirement, going into his age 36 season, but giving Dockett starter’s money and counting on Dockett to start is a mistake. The Cardinals should feel happy that they stuck their divisional rival with a dud.

Grade: D

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San Francisco 49ers 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, 49ers, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Defensive End

Justin Smith and Ray McDonald were a strong duo at 3-4 defensive end for the 49ers last season on a defense that still played very well in an overall disappointing 8-8 season. They were Pro Football Focus’ 11th and 12th ranked 3-4 defensive ends last season. However, Smith is expected to retire, going into his age 36 season, while McDonald was cut late in the season after allegations of violence against women surfaced for the 2nd time that season. The 49ers have decent depth at the position, specifically 2013 2nd round pick Tank Carradine, who could start in 2015, and Quinton Dial, a talented reserve who graded out above average on 329 snaps last season. However, Tony Jerod-Eddie was their top reserve at the position last season in terms of snaps played. He started in McDonald’s absence down the stretch and he was terrible overall, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 43rd ranked 3-4 defensive end out of 47 eligible on just 426 snaps. Smith and McDonald are going to be tough to replace and help is definitely needed at the position.

Wide Receiver

Michael Crabtree is coming off of one of the worst seasons of his career and now he’s a free agent. Crabtree caught 68 passes for 698 yards and 4 touchdowns on 102 targets (66.7%) and 474 routes run (1.47 yards per route run). He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 95th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible. Brandon Lloyd is a free agent as well and he doesn’t have any long-term value to them, considering he was retired in 2013 and now is going into his age 34 season. Steve Johnson is proven, still young, and played well in limited action in 2014, but he’s owed a non-guaranteed 6.025 million in 2015 so he could be cost-prohibitive for the cap strapped 49ers. Meanwhile, recent 4th round picks Bruce Ellington (2014) and Quinton Patton (2013) are completely unproven, while #1 receiver Anquan Boldin is going into his age 35 season. The 49ers will look hard at both DeVante Parker and Kevin White if either is still available with the 15th overall pick.

Tight End

Vernon Davis had easily the worst season of his career in 2014. Not only was his 26/245/2 slash line his worst production since his rookie year in 2006, but he also struggled as a run blocker, an area he’s generally been very good in. Davis had that minimal production despite 47 targets (55.3% catch rate) and 417 routes run (0.59 yards per route run) and was Pro Football Focus’ 62nd ranked tight end out of 67 eligible. Davis isn’t over the hill completely yet, but he is going into his age 31 season and the 49ers don’t have the cap flexibility to give him another shot at his scheduled 4.9 million dollar salary. Vance McDonald is their #2 tight end, but the 2013 2nd round pick hasn’t really done much in 2 years in the league, playing a combined 712 snaps in 2 seasons in the league, including just 218 last season.

Cornerback

Perrish Cox and Chris Culliver led 49er cornerbacks in snaps played last season and both graded out above average, but both are free agents this off-season. Jimmie Ward was their 2014 1st round pick and he’ll have a bigger role in his 2nd year in the league after struggling on 270 snaps as a rookie, but his long-term future might be at safety. Fellow rookie Dontae Johnson, a 2014 4th round pick, also struggled as a rookie, grading out below average on 502 snaps. Tramaine Brock will be back in 2015 after an injury plagued 2014 season, but this is still a position where they need to add this off-season.

Guard

Mike Iupati is a free agent this off-season, while Alex Boone is going into his contract year and held out until right before the season started last year because he was unhappy with his contract. Joe Looney was their primary reserve at the position last year, but he was horrible. They need to add depth at the position this off-season, especially if their cap situation prevents them from re-signing Iupati.

Running Back

Frank Gore’s 10-year tenure with the 49ers could be coming to an end. Gore is a free agent this off-season and going into his age 32 season with 2442 career carries. Gore is 20th all-time in rushing yardage at 11,073 and could be bound for Canton, but of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade and a half, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. He might not have looked it last year, but he’s close to the end. I don’t expect the 49ers to bring him back, opting instead to make 2014 2nd round pick Carlos Hyde the starter. They need depth behind him though as he’s completely unproven, rushing for 333 yards and 4 touchdowns on 83 carries as a rookie (4.01 yards per carry).

Quarterback

Colin Kaepernick had the worst year of his career in 2014, completing 60.5% of his passes for an average of 7.05 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 28th ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible. He’ll be the starter once again in 2015 and he could bounce back, but they need a solid backup they can turn to if he struggles again. Neither Blaine Gabbert nor Josh Johnson, both of whom are free agents this off-season, was that last season.

Key Free Agents

G Mike Iupati

The 49ers drafted Mike Iupati 17th overall in 2010 and many saw him as one of the top guard prospects of the decade. He hasn’t quite lived up those expectations, but he’s still been a very good guard, grading out in the top-14 at his position on Pro Football Focus in 4 of the 5 seasons he’s been in the league, with the exception coming in an injury plagued 2013, when he still graded out above average. Despite that injury plagued 2013 season, he’s missed just 4 games in 5 seasons, all coming in 2013. One concern is that, while he’s annually one of the top run blocking guards in the NFL, he has graded out below average as a pass protector in 3 of 5 seasons so, as talented as he is, he’s not that well-rounded and he does have a glaring weakness. Still, he should top the 5-year, 30 million dollar deal Zane Beadles got last off-season and deservedly so.

CB Chris Culliver

Chris Culliver was just a 3rd round pick of the 49ers in 2011, but he’s quietly one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL. He had a significant role from the word go in 2011, playing 425 snaps and then 691 in 2012, grading out above average in both seasons, including 29th at his position in 2012. He’s graded out above average in all 3 seasons he’s been healthy, missing all of 2013 with a torn ACL. However, he bounced back in a big way from that torn ACL in 2014 in his first full season as a starter, making 14 starts and grading out 14th at his position. On top of that, that 2013 ACL tear is really the only issue he’s had with injuries, missing a combined 2 games in his other 3 seasons as a pro. The 49ers have cap problems so they’ll have to hope that the rest of the league doesn’t realize he how good he is so that they can re-sign him cheaply.

WR Michael Crabtree

Crabtree was seen as a steal when the 49ers drafted him 10th overall in 2009, but he never really lived up to expectations. He looked like he was on his way towards living up to those expectations in 2012, when he caught 85 passes for 1105 yards and 9 touchdowns on 118 targets (72.0%) and 433 routes run (an average of 2.55 yards per route run), grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked wide receiver. He was even better down the stretch that season, catching 61 passes for 880 yards and 8 touchdowns in his final 10 games, including playoffs. That’s 98 catches for 1408 yards and 13 touchdowns over 16 games. However, he tore his Achilles the following off-season and was never the same. He caught just 19 passes for 284 yards and a touchdown in 5 games in 2013 (34 catches for 487 yards and a touchdown if you count playoffs) and then was even worse on a per game basis in 2014. He played all 16 games, but caught just 68 passes for 698 yards and 4 touchdowns on 102 targets (66.7%) and 474 routes run (1.47 yards per route run). His per game yardage numbers in 2014 were the worst of his career and he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 95th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible. 2012 remains his only 1000+ yard season and he’s graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in 3 of 6 seasons, including each of the last 2 seasons and his contract year was arguably the worst year of his career. There’s bounce back potential in a different offense, but if Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Jeremy Maclin, and Randall Cobb all get franchise tagged, Crabtree leaps to the top of the wide receiver class and becomes a strong candidate to get overpaid.

RB Frank Gore

Frank Gore has had a fantastic 10-year run with the 49ers, rushing for 11,073 yards and 64 touchdowns on 2442 carries, playing all but 12 games at one of the most physical positions in the NFL. He added 342 catches for 2883 yards and another 11 scores through the air, while being one of the best pass protecting running backs and one of the best teammates in the NFL. He was everything the 49ers could have asked out of the 2005 3rd round pick, talented, complete, durable, and a great teammate. His rushing yards rank 20th all-time and he could be bound for Canton. He’s definitely bound for the 49ers’ Ring of Honor. However, all good things must come to an end. Gore is going into his age 32 season with 2442 carries. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade and a half, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. He might not have looked it last year, but he’s close to the end. I don’t expect the cap strapped 49ers to bring him back, instead going with 2014 2nd round pick Carlos Hyde as the starter in 2015. Whoever signs Gore could be very disappointed with his play on the field because of where he is in his career. Retirement is also an option.

CB Perrish Cox

Perrish Cox was a 5th round pick by the Broncos in 2010 and graded out above average on 787 snaps as a rookie, but was let go after one year after being arrested on multiple sexual assault charges. Cox was out of the league entirely in 2011 thanks to those charges coupled with a history of off-the-field issues from his collegiate days at Oklahoma State. However, early in 2012, he was found not guilty and the 49ers gave him another chance. He didn’t play much in either 2012 or 2013, playing 168 snaps in 2012 and 81 snaps in 2013 (11 of which were actually with the Seahawks), but injuries opened up a starting role for him back with the 49ers in 2014 and he didn’t look back. Cox led the 49ers with 965 snaps played, made 14 starts, and graded out above average. Cox clearly has talent, showing it in both of his stints as a starter, but the off-the-field stuff can’t be ignored. Still, he’ll come cheap for a starting cornerback this off-season so he definitely wouldn’t be a bad signing for any cornerback needy team and that includes the 49ers.

OLB Dan Skuta

The amount of different positions Skuta has played in the NFL is incredible. He’s played 4-3 defensive end, fullback, 4-3 outside linebacker, 4-3 middle linebacker, 3-4 outside linebacker, and 3-4 middle linebacker, while excelling on special teams. The 2009 undrafted free agent never played more than 163 offensive or defensive snaps in 4 years with the Bengals to start his career, but always made the roster because of his versatility. He’s carved out a bigger role with the 49ers over the past 2 seasons, primarily at 3-4 outside linebacker, playing 302 snaps in 2013 and 398 snaps in 2014, grading out above average in both seasons. He’d be a nice, cheap signing for any team who needs pass rushing depth because he’s talented and can do so many other things for you if you need him to.

WR Brandon Lloyd

Lloyd started his career in San Francisco in 2003, after they drafted him in the 4th round that year, but it was a weird road that led him to come full circle and end up with the 49ers again in 2014. Lloyd bounced around 4 different teams from 2003-2009, ending up in Denver, where, in 2010, he went from never having a 1000 yard year to leading the league in receiving at age 29 season, catching 77 passes for 1448 yards and 11 touchdowns, despite a combination of Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow at quarterback. He was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked wide receiver that year as well. However, Lloyd lasted just 4 games into the 2011 season with the Broncos before he was traded to the Rams for a mere 5th round pick. His composite numbers in 2011 weren’t bad, as he caught 70 passes for 966 yards and 5 touchdowns, nor were his numbers bad in 2012 with the Patriots, as he caught 74 passes for 911 yards and 4 touchdowns, but the same reports that had followed him his whole career continued to surface, that his personality was a weird fit and his teammates didn’t really like him. Lloyd sat out all of 2013 before returning in a reserve role to the 49ers in 2014. Lloyd played just 347 snaps, caught just 14 passes for 294 yards and a touchdown, and graded out below average. Now going into his age 34 season, he’ll be greeted by a very cold market and could be at the end of the line.

QB Blaine Gabbert

Blaine Gabbert was about as big of a bust as you can be as the 10th overall pick in 2011. The Jaguars traded their 1st and 2nd round pick to move up to get him and he was horrendous in 3 seasons for them, completing 53.3% of his passes for an average of 5.61 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions. He made 27 starts and won just 5 of them. That’s not completely his fault, but obviously he had a lot to do with that. The Jaguars traded him to the 49ers for a 6th round pick last off-season, but even Jim Harbaugh couldn’t get the talent out of him. He struggled mightily in the pre-season and attempted just 7 passes as the backup to a struggling Colin Kaepernick. This off-season, he won’t be guaranteed to get a #2 job or even make someone’s final roster in September. Only going into his age 26 season, Gabbert could be out of the league in 2015.

Cap Casualty Candidates

TE Vernon Davis

Vernon Davis held out for a while last off-season because he was unhappy about his contract and ended up turning in one of the worst seasons of his career. Not only was his 26/245/2 slash line his worst production since his rookie year in 2006, but he also struggled as a run blocker, an area he’s generally been very good in. Davis had that minimal production despite 47 targets (55.3% catch rate) and 417 routes run (0.59 yards per route run) and was Pro Football Focus’ 62nd ranked tight end out of 67 eligible. Now the man who wanted an extension last off-season has a very good chance to get cut outright this off-season. He has a chance to bounce back in 2015, but he’s going into his age 31 season and the 49ers don’t have the cap space to really give him a 2nd chance. The 49ers can save 4.9 million in cash and immediately on the cap by letting him go this off-season.

OLB Ahmad Brooks

Brooks was Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker as recently as 2012, but he graded out below average in both 2013 and 2014. Now he’s going into his age 31 season and the cap strapped 49ers could easily cut him and go forward with Aldon Smith, Aaron Lynch, Corey Lemonier, and potentially free agent Dan Skuta at the 3-4 outside linebacker position, which is arguably the 49ers’ deepest position. The 49ers would only save 1.509 million on the cap by letting him go this off-season, but it would save them 7.3 million in cash and get him off their cap completely for 2016.

S Craig Dahl

Dahl was signed to a 3-year, 5.25 million dollar contract by the 49ers two off-seasons ago to potentially be a starter, but when they drafted Eric Reid a month later in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft, Dahl became a reserve, playing 89 snaps in 2013 and 184 snaps in 2014. He also wasn’t very good as a starter in St. Louis in 2012, grading out 77th at his position out of 88 eligible. There’s no reason the cap strapped 49ers need to be paying him 1.7 million in 2015 and they can save all that money immediately on the cap by cutting him this off-season.

WR Steve Johnson

Steve Johnson is an interesting case. Ordinarily, a cap strapped team like the 49ers would cut someone like Johnson easily. He’s owed a non-guaranteed 6.025 million, all of which can come off their cap immediately if they were to cut him, and he played just 305 snaps last season. However, the 49ers could easily lose both Michael Crabtree and Brandon Lloyd this off-season and they really need a starter opposite Anquan Boldin. Johnson has proven in the past that he’s more than capable of being a starter, putting up 1000+ yard seasons in 2010, 2011, and 2012. Even though he’s going to be 3 years removed from his last 1000+ yard season in 2015 and even though he combined for less than 1000 yards in 2013 and 2014, Johnson is still relatively young (going into his age 29 season) and he was very efficient in limited action for the 49ers in 2014. Despite the limited playing time, Johnson graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 22nd ranked wide receiver, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out higher. He caught 35 passes for 435 yards on 49 attempts (71.4%) and 204 routes run (2.13 yards per route run). A restructure could make the most sense for both sides.

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Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (11-4) at San Francisco 49ers (7-8)

This line has shifted from 4 to 6 over the past week. Normally, I love fading significant line movements because they tend to be overreactions. Rate of moving the chains also says this line is too high, as the Cardinals rank 16th, moving the chains at a 69.52% rate, as opposed to 69.49% for their opponents, a differential of 0.03%, while the 49ers rank 20th, moving the chains at a 70.81% rate, as opposed to 72.15% for their opponents, a differential of -1.33% Their defense is also really hurting, losing Chris Borland, Eric Reid, and Ray McDonald for a variety of reasons in the last couple of weeks. However, this line might be warranted. The Cardinals were embarrassed at home by the Seahawks last week in a 35-6 loss that could have been worse if the Seahawks had made two makeable field goals. The Cardinals moved the chains at a mere 58.62% rate, as opposed to 80.00% for the Seahawks.

The 49ers aren’t as good as the Seahawks obviously and the Cardinals will be switching from Ryan Lindley to Logan Thomas at quarterback and I don’t think he could possibly be worse than Lindley, who, somehow in the modern age of football, has completed just 49.3% of his passes for an average of 4.44 YPA, 0 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions and has shown a stunning lack of accuracy and poor ball placement dating back to his San Diego State days. However, Thomas is a 4th round rookie and is just 1 of 8 in his career and, while that 1 completion went for 81 yards, it was on a dumpoff to a running back. The Cardinals only moved the chains at a 67.18% rate with Drew Stanton under center and figure to once again be even worse than that this week with Thomas under center. It’s hard to be confident in him, though I ultimately am going with the Cardinals.

San Francisco 49ers 13 Arizona Cardinals 9

Pick against the spread: Arizona +6

Confidence: None

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San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, 49ers, Chargers, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (8-6) at San Francisco 49ers (7-7)

The public is all over the Chargers here. It’s understandable. The 49ers have lost 3 straight games, haven’t covered since week 11 in New York against the Giants and haven’t covered at home since week 13 of last season. They’ve been eliminated from the playoffs and Jim Harbaugh is basically a goner. However, these players will all still play hard for themselves and the talent difference between these two teams isn’t really that much.

I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, especially when the public is on the underdog. Whenever the public and the odds makers have different ideas about which team is going to win and which team should be favored, it usually doesn’t end well for the public. If the Chargers are really as likely to win as the public thinks, why do the people who set lines for a living still have San Francisco favored?

Fading the public does make sense this week. As I mentioned, the talent difference between these two teams isn’t really that much. The Chargers move the chains at a 73.63% rate, as opposed to 73.30% for their opponents, a differential of 0.33% that ranks 14th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the 49ers rank 18th, moving the chains at a 70.59% rate as opposed to 71.36% for their opponents, a differential of -0.77%. The 49ers lost Ray McDonald, a valuable defensive lineman, this week, releasing him after it came out that he was being investigated for violence against a woman for the 2nd time this year. They’ll also be without talented linebacker Chris Borland.

However, the Chargers are going to be without both Keenan Allen and Ryan Mathews this week, while Philip Rivers reportedly is playing through a serious injury, which would explain why he’s struggled mightily over the past 2 weeks. The Chargers generally are very good in December, but they didn’t cover at home against either Denver or New England in the last 2 weeks and neither game was really that close. As long as Rivers is playing through a significant injury, missing his top two offensive weapons, I don’t think the Chargers’ past December success is relevant to this game.

The Chargers are also in a tough spot with another very important game in Kansas City on deck next week, so it’s possible they somewhat overlook a struggling non-conference opponent. Teams are 51-83 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road underdogs. Meanwhile, the 49ers host the broken down Cardinals next week. If this line does move to San Diego being favored before game time, that would put them in a bad spot because teams are 62-38 ATS since 2012 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. It’s hard to be confident in the 49ers, but they should be the right side.

San Francisco 49ers 24 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -1

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, 49ers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (7-6) at Seattle Seahawks (9-4)

This line moved from Seattle being favored by 6.5 last week to them now being favored by 10. I normally hate going with huge line movements, especially doing so also means siding with the public, because significant line movements tend to be overreactions and traps for the public who go with them. However, in this case, the line movement might be appropriate. The 49ers lost to the Raiders last week and not in a fluky fashion. They lost by 11 and they lost the chain battle as well, moving them at a 67.86% rate, as opposed to 75.86% for Oakland. The Raiders looked like the ones favored by 8 in that one, not the other way around. Sure, they were probably caught looking forward to this contest, but that’s still an inexcusable performance.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, won by 10 in Philadelphia in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score. The Eagles got a touchdown basically handed to them off a fluky blocked punt and the Seahawks won the chain battle, moving them at a 75.61% rate, as opposed to a pathetic 52.38% rate for Philadelphia. That moved the Seahawks into 4th on the season in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 75.19% rate, as opposed to 70.44% for their opponents, a differential of 4.74%. The 49ers, meanwhile, rank 17th now, moving them at a 70.73% rate, as opposed to 70.97% for their opponents, a differential of 0.24%. Even with the huge line movement, this line is still very appropriate at 10 in favor of Seattle.

Rate of moving the chains differential has this line at about 8, but that’s before you take into account Seattle’s fantastic homefield advantage. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 46-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 44-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.80 points per game at home. This is opposed to a 26-42 record away from home (30-37-1 ATS), getting outscored by 3.26 points per game. Given that, we might actually still be getting line value with the Seahawks at 10. In 3 trips to Seattle in the Russell Wilson era, the 49ers have lost by margins of 29, 26, and 6 and that was when they were better than they are now.

The Seahawks are also in a great spot as they were projected to be 6.5 road favorites next week in Arizona and that was before the Stanton injury. Teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites, 23-8 ATS before being 7+ road favorites. That’s a little misleading because a game like that coming up usually means that a team has no upcoming distractions. While that line might be appropriate for the Seahawks trip to Arizona, it’s still fair to suggest that the Seahawks might be a little distracted by their upcoming trip to face an Arizona team that still somehow leads the division at 11-3.

On top of the line movement and the public action being on Seattle, the 49ers have three things working for them. For one, divisional home favorites are 25-49 ATS since 2002 against a divisional opponent that they previously beat as road underdogs during that same regular season. It’s a weird trend and it’s a little complicated, but it makes sense when you think about it. In divisional matchups where the homefield advantage decides who is the favorite, generally those two teams are essentially even. Divisional opponents that are essentially even generally split the season series. That seems to happen even if the road team pulls the upset in the first matchup, as the road underdog wins about half the time (39-38) in the rematch and covers at that aforementioned 2/3rds rate. The only problem is that these two teams are clearly not even. The 49ers were only favored by 1 in the first matchup anyway. The Seahawks should have no problem sweeping this season series and could easily win this one by double digits.

The second thing the 49ers have going for them is that teams are 59-39 ATS since 1989 off of a loss as road favorites of 7 or more, including 16-2 ATS as underdogs. On top of that, the 49ers are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 111-76 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 94-54 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 182-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.32 points per game, as opposed to 269-385 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. I still like the Seahawks, but it’s hard to be that confident in them.

Seattle Seahawks 24 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -10

Confidence: Low

San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, 49ers, Raiders, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (7-5) at Oakland Raiders (1-11)

The Raiders were absolutely destroyed in St. Louis last week, losing by the final score of 52-0, the biggest single game margin of the season. However, that actually puts them in a good spot to cover this week, as teams are 48-25 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by 35 or more. It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. The Raiders aren’t undervalued (I have this line at 8.5, which is essentially where it is), but they will surely be embarrassed and they will almost definitely be overlooked. Adding to the likelihood that the 49ers will overlook the Raiders here is the fact that the 49ers have arguably their biggest game of the season on deck when they travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks.

The early line for that game has them as 7 point underdogs at the site where they lost the NFC Championship last year, against their most bitter rival who beat them last week. The 49ers will have one eye on that game all week in preparing for Oakland and that will show on the field. Favorites of 6 or more are just 46-80 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more since 2002. Even worse, teams are 17-32 ATS since 1989 as road favorites of 4+ before being road underdogs of 4+. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because Oakland has Kansas City on deck where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs and teams are 44-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. However, after what happened last week, the Raiders should be able to be focused on this game, given that they’ll be playing for pride against a hated local rival.

San Francisco 49ers 17 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: Oakland +8

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, 49ers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (7-4) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals in Seattle in impressive fashion last week, but they are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 46-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 44-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.80 points per game at home. This is opposed to a 24-42 record away from home (28-37-1 ATS), getting outscored by 3.76 points per game. This season, they are 2-3 on the road, as opposed to 5-1 at home. On the road, they’ve moved the chains at a 77.18% rate, as opposed to 76.81% for their opponents, a differential of 0.37%.

They’re even worse on the road as road underdogs, going 15-25 ATS in that spot since 2007, including 9-18 ATS as road underdogs off a home game. This is only the 3rd time they’ve been road underdogs over the past 2 seasons, but for good reason (the other two instances were last year in San Francisco and two weeks ago in Kansas City). They aren’t as good as they were last season (the fact that they’ll be without Brandon Mebane and Max Unger this week doesn’t help) and San Francisco is solid.

San Francisco isn’t quite as good as their record, ranking 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 71.47% rate, as opposed to 70.98% for their opponents, a differential of 0.49%. However, they’re still solid and Seattle only ranks 9th, moving the chains at a 75.89% rate, as opposed to 72.15% for their opponents, a differential of 3.74%. As I said, they aren’t as good this season, especially on the road. San Francisco definitely deserves to be home favorites here. As they did in their other two instances as road underdogs over the past two seasons and as they did in their previous two trips to San Francisco with Russell Wilson, I expect the Seahawks to lose straight up here.

San Francisco is also in the better spot as their next game is in Oakland. They will have absolutely no distractions with such an easy game coming up in ten days, while Seattle has another tough game in Philadelphia up next, where they could once again be road underdogs. San Francisco, meanwhile, will almost definitely be significant road favorites. Teams are 87-57 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, including 55-33 ATS before being 4+ point favorites, and 23-7 ATS before being 7+ point favorites. I have confidence that the 49ers will win here.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Seattle Seahawks 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -1

Confidence: Medium

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