Broncos

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (10-3) at San Diego Chargers (8-5)

Denver is the best team in the league in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 77.73% rate, as opposed to 71.29% for their opponents, a differential of 6.44%. However, this line is still too high at 4.5. San Diego has a solid squad as well, moving the chains at a 73.91% rate, as opposed to 73.51% for their opponents, a differential of 0.40% that ranks 15th in the NFL. This line should be around a field goal, according to that. That might not seem like a significant difference, but considering 3 and 4 are both key numbers, it is, especially with the public all over the Broncos once again.

On top of that, the Chargers have typically been an auto-bet late in the season, since 2007. They’ve gone 25-4 straight up and 20-9 ATS in weeks 14-17 over that time period. They didn’t cover last week against New England, but that’s because New England is the only team comparably good to the Chargers late season over that time period (26-3 SU, 16-12 ATS). They should have better luck this week against Denver, especially since home underdogs are 69-47 ATS off of losses as home underdogs since 2002. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play for the Broncos is because they’ll be 4 point favorites in Cincinnati next week and teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites and 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites. However, I still like the Chargers as long as the line is above 4 here.

San Diego Chargers 24 Denver Broncos 23 Upset Pick +175

Pick against the spread: San Diego +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bills, Broncos, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (7-5) at Denver Broncos (9-3)

Usually the public is all over favorites, particularly big favorites, because they don’t quite understand the value of the points they’re giving up. The public takes the favorite about 80% of the time or so and it’s a big part of the reason why the public always loses money in the long run. However, there’s only a slight lean on the Broncos as 10 point favorites here. I think the public is actually slightly overrating the Bills here as underdogs. It makes sense that they’d do that as the Bills have a 7-5 record, but they are nowhere near as good as that record suggests.

The Bills rank 24th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 65.52% rate, as opposed to 67.73% for their opponents, a differential of -2.22%. The Broncos, meanwhile, rank 1st, moving the chains at a 78.07% rate, as opposed to 70.82% for their opponents, a differential of 7.25%. I don’t think this line is high enough and I don’t have any problem taking the Broncos even with the public on them because it’s not a heavy lean. The Broncos have been especially good at home since Peyton Manning showed up in 2012, going 16-9 ATS as home favorites, including 6-3 ATS as home favorites of 10 or more.

The Bills are also in a tough spot as they host Green Bay next week. Teams are 59-92 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more and 30-64 ATS before being home underdogs of 4 or more. Meanwhile, the Broncos head to San Diego, where they will be road favorites. Teams are 100-63 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2002. On top of that, teams are 89-60 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, which the Broncos could easily be next week. I like the Broncos to blow out the Bills here.

Denver Broncos 31 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -10

Confidence: High

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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (8-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)

The Chiefs lost to the Raiders last week. How are they going to beat the Broncos this week? The public is all over the Broncos as small road favorites here so that’s clearly what they’re thinking. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they always lose money in the long run and it makes sense to do so here. Yes, the Chiefs lost to the Raiders last week, but that doesn’t completely erase everything they’ve accomplished this season and all the times they proved they were a legitimate contender. The Broncos lost to the Rams two weeks ago and that didn’t erase all their accomplishments either. Fluky things happen in the NFL and the Chiefs were undoubtedly caught off guard last week after a win over the Seahawks with a game against the Broncos on deck. Teams are actually 57-41 ATS as home underdogs off of a loss as road favorites, including 5-1 ATS off of a loss as road favorites of a touchdown or more.

Prior to last week, the Chiefs beat the Seahawks, as I mentioned. They went into San Diego and won. They went into Buffalo and won. They blew out a solid Miami team in Miami (34-15). They blew out a Patriots team that has looked fantastic since (41-14). They took care of business against the Jets (24-10) and the Rams (31-7). Meanwhile, their three losses came by a combined 19 points and two of them came in Denver and San Francisco. On the season, the Chiefs still rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential. They move the chains at a 76.35% rate, as opposed to 71.47% for their opponents, a differential of 4.87%.

The Broncos still lead the league, moving the chains at a 78.80% rate, as opposed to 71.83% for their opponents, a differential of 6.96%, but no one, not even them, deserves to be favored over the Chiefs in Kansas City. The wrong team is favored here. The Broncos haven’t exactly looked good on the road this season anyway, losing in St. Louis, Seattle, and New England and needing a late pick six to cover over the Jets. Their only clean cover on the road was in Oakland. The Chiefs should be the right side. Don’t worry about the Chiefs losing Eric Berry. He hadn’t been playing that well this season and the Chiefs could give 110% this week to honor Berry. I wish Berry the best as he faces a possible lymphoma diagnosis.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Denver Broncos 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +2

Confidence: High

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Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Broncos, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (6-4) at Denver Broncos (7-3)

The Broncos suffered a shocking loss in St. Louis last Sunday, losing 22-7 as 10 point road favorites. However, that was a very fluky loss and the Broncos played a lot better than the final score suggested. The Broncos had more first downs (21 and 16) and an equal amount of offensive touchdowns (1), as the Rams were overly reliant on a +2 turnover margin. The Broncos moved the chains at a 68.75% rate, as opposed to 60.71% for the Rams. On the season, the Broncos are still first in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 77.62% rate, as opposed to 70.09% for their opponents, a differential of 7.52%.

Despite that, we’re still getting significant line value with the Dolphins as the Dolphins are better than their 6-4 record suggests. Their +69 point differential is actual the same as Denver’s. All 6 of their wins have come by 13 points or more and two of their losses came by 4 points or less against two very solid teams (Green Bay, Detroit). They rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 74.47% rate, as opposed to 68.44% for their opponents, a differential of 6.03%. This line is way too high, especially with Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas in doubt for the Broncos this week.

On top of that, the Dolphins have a much easier game up next, as they head to New York to play the Jets, while the Broncos have to go to Kansas City for one of their toughest games of the season. The Broncos have a way bigger distraction on the horizon, which is going to make it much harder for them to cover here. Teams are 86-106 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. Conversely, teams are 40-31 ATS since 1989 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road favorites.

Combining the two, teams are 100-61 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 36-13 ATS since 2002 as road underdogs before being road favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs. Going off of that, teams are 85-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more and 54-33 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more. The Dolphins will almost definitely be favored by 4 or more next week in New York against the Jets. As long as the line is more than a touchdown, this is my Pick of the Week.

Denver Broncos 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Miami +7.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Denver Broncos at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Broncos, Rams, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (7-2) at St. Louis Rams (3-6)

The Broncos are the best team in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 78.53% rate, as opposed to 70.99% for their opponents, a differential of 7.54%. However, this line still might be too high at 10. The Rams rank 26th, moving the chains at a 70.72% rate, as opposed to 75.09% for their opponents, a differential of -4.37%. That’s not good, but they’re definitely better than the Raiders and they can give the Broncos way more of a game than the Raiders did last week. Remember, the Broncos have not played well on the road this season, losing in Seattle and New England and needing a late pick six to win by more than a touchdown in New York against the Jets. Last week was the exception, but the Raiders are a special kind of terrible this season.

Even before you take into account the Broncos’ relative road struggles, I still don’t think this line should be higher than 9. We’re not getting a ton of line value with the Rams obviously and I’m not confident in them at all, but the public is all over the Broncos (predictably so) at a very high rate. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as the odds makers always make money in the long run and I think it makes sense here, even if I’m not confident.

Denver Broncos 28 St. Louis Rams 20

Pick against the spread: St. Louis +10

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Broncos, Raiders, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-8)

I’m completely torn on this one. On one hand, the Broncos are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. Going off that, teams are 43-28 ATS as road favorites off a road loss since 2008, including 16-8 ATS off of a loss as road favorites. On top of that, the Broncos also have no upcoming distractions with a trip to St. Louis on deck. Teams are 80-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more, 49-32 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 20-7 ATS before being road favorites of a touchdown or more (the early line is Denver -7.5).

On the other hand, all of the public money is on the Broncos and the public always loses money in the long run. On top of that, winless teams this late in the season tend to be a solid bet. Teams that are 0-8 or worse are 32-15 ATS since 1989. Teams like this tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed and I think the Raiders could easily be all three. I’m going with the Broncos because I think we’re getting a tiny bit of line value with them as 11 point favorites, but I have no confidence.

Denver Broncos 34 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against the spread: Denver -11

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Broncos, Patriots, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (6-1) at New England Patriots (6-2)

On the season, the Patriots are just 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite their 6-2 record, as they’ve been overly reliant on a +11 turnover margin. They are moving the chains at a 74.91% rate, as opposed to 73.18% for their opponents, a differential of 1.53%. The Broncos, meanwhile, are #1 in that statistic, moving the chains at a 79.49% rate, as opposed to 72.12% for their opponents, a differential of 7.36%. That suggests this line should be around 2.5 in favor of Denver here in New England, which gives us a little bit of line value with the Patriots as 3.5 point underdogs.

That’s before you even take into account that the Patriots have been playing much better football over the past four games, since that loss to Kansas City. They’ve moved the chains at an 80.99% rate over the past 4 weeks, as opposed to 66.96% in the first 4 weeks of the season. Their defense hasn’t been quite as good (74.26% vs 72.00%) and they’ll have trouble stopping Peyton Manning without Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo, but they can definitely still outscore them. I believe the Patriots will be closer to the last 4 weeks than the first 4 weeks over the final 8 weeks of the season, as Rob Gronkowski is back to full health. Over the past 4 weeks, he’s caught 27 passes for 411 yards and 4 touchdowns over the past 4 games combined on 134 routes run (3.07 yards per route run).

Their offense has always been better when they have a healthy Gronkowski on the field. Coming into this season, from 2011-2013, Tom Brady completed 65.3% of his passes for an average of 8.07 YPA, 81 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions when Gronkowski played (36 games, including playoffs) and the Patriots scored 32.8 points per game. When Gronkowski isn’t on the field, Brady completed 58.3% of his passes for an average of 6.88 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions and the Patriots scored 28.0 points per game (19 games, including playoffs). Over the first 4 games of the season, Tom Brady completed 59.1% of his passes for an average of 5.77 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Over the last 4 games, he’s completed 69.6% of his passes for an average of 8.81 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions.

Last week was the best offensive game they’ve had yet as they moved the chains at a 90.24% rate in a 51-23 win. Despite that, they are underdogs of 3.5 here, just the 4th time in the last 25 years that a team has scored 50 points or more and then been home underdogs of 3.5 or more the following week. Those teams are only 2-1 ATS, but it’s such a small sample size and, considering how rare it happens, I don’t think the Patriots deserve to be underdogs of this much, which my above numbers also suggest.

It’s also a rarity that the Patriots are home underdogs, as this is just the 11th time they’ve been home underdogs since Tom Brady took over as the starter. In those previous 10 games, they are 9-1 ATS, winning straight up in 8 of those 10 games. That makes sense, as the Patriots are 105-22 straight up since 2001 at home, including 9-4 ATS (13-0 SU, winning by an average of 12.46 points per game) at home over the past 2 seasons. Going off of that, Tom Brady is 44-18 ATS in his career as an underdog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points, winning at an absurdly high rate in situations where he basically just has to win straight up.

Going off of that, he’s 31-10-1 ATS in his career against teams that have better records than his, including 19-6 ATS as an underdog. Possibly even crazier, he’s 30-12 straight up in that situation, a winning percentage of 71.4%. The rest of the league wins at a 38.5% rate. The Broncos are in a good spot, as they have the Raiders up next, meaning they have no distractions upcoming. Teams are 78-54 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, including 49-30 ATS as 4+ point favorites, and 20-5 ATS as 7+ point favorites. Still, as long as this line is more than a field goal, the Patriots are my Pick of the Week.

New England Patriots 34 Denver Broncos 27 Upset Pick +140

Pick against spread: New England +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (5-2) at Denver Broncos (5-1)

The Broncos have generally been very good at home in the Peyton Manning era, going 14-7 ATS as home favorites of 3 or more. That hasn’t been the case against these Chargers, who have covered in all 3 instances in Denver as 3+ point underdogs since 2012. However, it’s very possible that could be an anomaly as it’s just 3 data points. Peyton Manning has also generally been very good in nationally televised regular seasons games, going 32-15 ATS in such games since 2003, including a 42-17 blowout win over the 49ers last weekend on Sunday Night Football. Again, the Chargers beat them here in a similar Thursday Night Game last year, but that could just be an anomaly.

However, the Chargers’ recent success against the Broncos does concern me some. I’m also concerned that this line is too high. I wish this line was under a touchdown, instead of at 7.5. Denver is playing very well this season, obviously, moving the chains at a 78.17% rate, as opposed to 70.77% for their opponents, a differential of 7.40% that ranks 2nd in the NFL behind Indianapolis. However, the Chargers are also playing very well, moving the chains at a 76.74% rate, as opposed to 72.02% for their opponents, a differential of 4.72% that ranks 6th in the NFL. This line should be closer to 5.5 than 7.5. Brandon Flowers is out for the Chargers, which really hurts them as he’s the biggest reason by far that their defense has been significantly better this season, but I still wish it was under a touchdown. I’m taking the Broncos, but I’m not confident.

Denver Broncos 30 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against spread: Denver -7.5

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, 49ers, Broncos, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Denver Broncos (4-1)

I’m completely torn on this one as there’s conflicting stuff on both sides. On one hand, the Broncos have a big divisional game against the Chargers up next in just 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Teams are 33-55 ATS since 2008 as favorites before Thursday Night games, including 17-31 ATS as favorites before a divisional Thursday Night game. On the other hand, Peyton Manning is very good in night games, going 31-15 ATS in such games since 2003. The 49ers are also missing Mike Iupati and Patrick Willis, which will really hurt a team that’s already been missing guys like Anthony Davis, NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, and Glenn Dorsey all season. I’m going with the 49ers just to fade the public, who is on Denver, but I’m not confident.

Denver Broncos 26 San Francisco 49ers 20

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +6.5

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at New York Jets: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Broncos, Jets, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (3-1) at New York Jets (1-4)

The Jets got destroyed last week in San Diego, losing 31-0 and that’s caused a significant line movement. A week ago, this line was at 6 and now it’s at 9.5 and possibly climbing even more before game time. Ordinarily, I like to fade that kind of line movement, especially with the public all over the favorite Denver here, but I’m still going with the Broncos here. I’m not that confident and there really isn’t much line value with the Broncos, but they still seem like the right side. The Jets were terrible last week so some of that line movement was deserved.

They are now 28th in rate of moving the chains differential at -5.75%, moving the chains at a 66.67% rate, as opposed to 72.41% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the Broncos are moving the chains at a 77.10%, as opposed to 71.85% for their opponents, a differential of 5.25%, 4th in the NFL. The line seems like it’s right where it should be. The Jets are also in a bad spot as they have to go to New England in 4 days for Thursday Night Football. They might not be focused enough to even cover this spread against a dominant opponent. Teams are 40-81 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs, including 28-62 ATS as underdogs before being double digit underdogs. Again I’m not confident, but the Broncos are my pick here.

Denver Broncos 30 New York Jets 20

Pick against spread: Denver -9.5

Confidence: None

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