Browns

Cleveland Browns 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Browns, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Wide Receiver

Josh Gordon has been suspended for the entire 2015 season and the Browns weren’t expected to keep him even before that. As talented as he is, the Browns seem to have grown tired of all the off-the-field issues and he seems to be out of chances. The Browns’ receiving corps wasn’t terrible in Gordon’s absence, as free agent signing Andrew Hawkins, veteran Miles Austin, and undrafted rookie free agent Taylor Gabriel all exceeded expectations, but Austin is a free agent going into his age 31 season this off-season and none of those guys are the #1 receiver they need. With two first round picks, I’d be surprised if they didn’t use one on a wide receiver.

Quarterback

This seems to always be on the Browns’ list. The Browns paid 100K for a study that determined that Teddy Bridgewater was the best quarterback in last year’s draft class and lo and behold he was easily the best rookie quarterback in 2014. The only problem is the Browns chose to ignore that study and draft Johnny Manziel and his rookie year went about as bad as possible. Manziel struggled to learn the playbook and make it on the field, even though veteran journeyman Brian Hoyer was flopping as a starting quarterback, finishing the season with 55.3% completion, 7.59 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in 13 starts. When Manziel did make it onto the field, he was worse than Hoyer, completing 51.4% of his passes for an average of 5.00 YPA, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. After the season, reports about his behind the scenes issues started coming out, ultimately culminating with a report that Manziel checked himself into a rehab facility a few weeks after the season ended. The Browns will obviously hope their 2014 1st round pick can turn it around, but they obviously need competition for him. Bringing back Hoyer is an unspectacular, but realistic option.

Defensive End

The Browns’ defense overall was solid, but they were weak on the defensive line. Desmond Bryant hasn’t really lived up to his 5-year, 34 million dollar contract yet, after signing two off-seasons ago. I don’t expect them to let him go yet because they have so much cap space, but they still need help on the defensive line. Phil Taylor is coming off of a rough year and might not be back in 2015 at his scheduled 5.5 million dollar salary, as his 4-year career has been full of inconsistency and injuries. Even if Taylor is back, he could move back to his natural position of nose tackle, with Athyba Rubin headed to free agency. Billy Winn struggled at the other 3-4 defensive end spot in Taylor’s absence in 2014.

Defensive Tackle

As I just mentioned, nose tackle Athyba Rubin is a free agent this off-season. He probably won’t be back as a starter, if he’s back at all, because he was horrible in 2014, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 74th ranked defensive tackle out of 81 eligible. Taylor could move inside to nose tackle, but, like I said, he might not be back either. The Browns have to add on the defensive line both at defensive end and defensive tackle.

Tight End

Jordan Cameron missed 6 games with injuries in 2014 and the Browns showed their lack of depth at the position when that happened, as neither Jim Dray nor Gary Barnidge showed much in the passing game. This is a problem as Jordan Cameron is heading into free agency. If he’s not re-signed, he’ll need to be replaced.

Center

Alex Mack suffered a horrible leg injury in 2014. He should be back in 2015 and he’s never missed a game in his career with injuries other than that one. However, the Browns’ depth in Mack’s absence was so bad that they might want to consider adding to this position this off-season. Paul McQuistan, Nick McDonald, and Ryan Seymour were all horrific in Mack’s absence and were big parts of the reason why their offense was so terrible down the stretch.

Key Free Agents

OLB Jabaal Sheard

Sheard, a 2011 2nd round pick, has emerged as a solid edge rusher, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013 and 16th ranked in 2014. He has experience playing in both a 4-3 and 3-4. He graded out below average in both of his seasons as a 4-3 defensive end, but those were also his first two seasons in the league, so he necessarily wouldn’t be a bad signing for a 4-3 team. Either way, Sheard should get a decent amount of money on the open market, in the 6-7 million dollars per year range, assuming the Browns let him. The Browns have a ton of cap space so they could easily re-sign him before free agency.

TE Jordan Cameron

Jordan Cameron had a breakout year in 2013, catching 80 passes for 917 yards and 7 touchdowns, after playing just 398 snaps and catching 26 passes in his first 2 seasons in the league. Cameron didn’t match that production in 2014 though, as he missed 6 games and caught just 24 passes for 424 yards and 2 touchdowns. Cameron heads into free agency as a one year wonder with a concerning concussion history and no full 16 game seasons played. Even his 2013 season wasn’t as good as his numbers looked as he was fortunate enough to be on one of the pass heaviest teams in the NFL. His 1.47 yards per route run was 19th among eligible tight ends. He’s also graded out below average as a run blocker in each of the last 3 seasons, including 60th out of 67 eligible in that facet in 2014. He could be overpaid this off-season.

DT Athyba Rubin

Rubin was one of the worst defensive tackles in the NFL last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 74th ranked defensive tackle out of 81 eligible. He did that at the wrong time as the veteran is going into free agency this off-season. He’s not generally this bad, but the last time he graded out above average on Pro Football Focus was 2009, so he’s not great. He won’t get a ton of money this off-season, even only going into his age 29 season.

QB Brian Hoyer

Hoyer had his moments in the first extended starting experience of his career in 2014, but ultimately proved to not be anything more than a solid backup caliber quarterback. He completed 55.3% of his passes for 7.59 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 35th ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible. The former undrafted free agent’s career numbers aren’t much different, as he’s completed 56.5% of his passes for an average of 7.23 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions on 630 career attempts. He’ll probably get a chance to compete for the starting job wherever he goes next and he’ll be paid decently, but he’s not a long-term option, especially since he’s already going into his age 30 season. As I said earlier, a reunion with the Browns would be unspectacular, but practical.

WR Miles Austin

Austin had somewhat of a bounce back year last year, catching 47 passes for 568 yards on 67 attempts (70.1%) and 314 routes run (1.81 yards per route run) with the Browns. This was after catching 24 passes for 244 yards on 46 attempts (52.2%) and 323 routes run (0.76 yards per route run) in 2013 with the Cowboys. However, he’s going into his age 31 season, has missed 15 games in his last 4 seasons, and last had 1000+ yards in 2010. He won’t draw a ton of interest on the open market this off-season and should only be a depth receiver. A reunion with the receiver needy Browns in that role would make a lot of sense.

CB Buster Skrine

Skrine was just a 5th round pick of the Browns’ in 2011, but he made 37 starts in 4 seasons with the Browns and started 31 of 32 games over the past 2 seasons. The problem is he’s not very good, grading out below average in all 4 seasons, with his worst year coming in 2013, when he graded out 105th out of 110 eligible, leading the position in both missed tackles and touchdowns allowed. The Browns drafted Justin Gilbert in the first round in 2014 to be an upgrade over him, but Gilbert struggled to get on the field as a rookie. Gilbert should see more playing time in his 2nd year in the league in 2015 though and, with fellow 2nd year players Pierre Desir and K’Waun Williams also in the mix, the Browns could easily move on from Skrine. Wherever he ends up, his market won’t be strong and he’ll struggle to find another starting job.

Cap Casualty Candidates

WR Josh Gordon

At the end of the season, it looked like Josh Gordon was done with the Browns. He had one last chance with the team and he appeared to use it up when it he was late to a practice and got suspended for week 17. Then he got suspended for the entire 2015 for failing an alcohol test, after being prohibited from drinking as the terms of his DUI agreement. Weirdly enough, that actually makes it less likely they cut him loose, because they won’t have to pay for him 2015. However, he’s on very, very thin ice with the team and, despite his talent, could be let go.

G Paul McQuistan

McQuistan’s salary isn’t very big, as he’s owed 1.395 million for 2015, but he’s not a very valuable backup. McQuistan made one start in 2014, slotting in at guard with John Greco moving to center after Alex Mack went down. He was so bad that he didn’t make another start, even though Nick McDonald and Ryan Seymour were both horrible in Mack’s absence. McQuistan is going into his age 32 season and was horrible in 2013 too, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 71st ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible with the Seahawks that season. He’s close to the end of the line.

DT Phil Taylor

The Browns picked up Taylor’s 5th year option for 2015 last off-season and will owe him 5.477 million in 2015. That 5th year option money is not guaranteed so teams still have the option to go back on their option. I don’t think that will happen very much as this new process moves into the future, but one team that could change their mind is the Browns with Phil Taylor. Taylor struggled on 133 snaps this season thanks to injuries. He’s now missed 20 games in 4 seasons in the NFL since getting drafted in the first round in 2011 and only graded out above average once, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 25th ranked defensive tackle in 2013. Overall, he doesn’t seem to be worth his salary for 2015 so the Browns could easily cut him loose or ask him to take a paycut.

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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Browns, Ravens, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (7-8) at Baltimore Ravens (9-6)

The Browns’ offense ranks 27th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 67.55% rate, and they’ve gotten progressively worse as the season has gone on. They’re moving the chains at a pathetic 63.44% rate over the past 10 games since Alex Mack went down. The returns of Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon from injury and suspension respectively haven’t helped matters as both as looked less than 100% after extended absences. In week 13 and 14 combined, Brian Hoyer’s final two starts, they moved the chains at a 58.33% rate, and in week 15 and 16 combined, Johnny Manziel’s first two starts, they moved the chains at a 43.75% rate.

Now undrafted rookie Connor Shaw is expected to start this one, after being called off of the practice squad earlier this week, with both Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel both hurt. Their offense isn’t going to get any better with him under center and it could get even worse. The Browns have a solid defense, which allows opponents to move the chains at a 70.81% rate, 7th in the NFL, but it’s not enough to make up for their completely stagnant offense. This line is way too low at 9 points as the Browns go into Baltimore.

The Ravens rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.15% rate, as opposed to 70.90% for their opponents, a differential of 5.25%. They’ve been even better at home, moving the chains at a 78.67% rate, as opposed to 68.18% for their opponents, a differential of 10.48%. This home dominance is nothing new as, since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 46-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.33 points per game, at home, as opposed to 34-33, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.04 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9-9.5 points. The Ravens are 31-25 ATS at home over that time period and, while they’re just 9-13 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more, their home dominance is still worth mentioning.

This line moved from 7 to 9 over the past week, to adjust for the Browns’ terrible showing in Carolina (though the final score was 17-13, the Browns lost the first down battle 27-8) and the fact that Connor Shaw will likely be starting. I normally like to fade significant line movements, but I don’t think the line moved enough nor do I think that it was high enough to begin with, when it was at 7 last week. The reason the line only moved 2 points was because the Ravens lost in Houston last week to the Texans and 4th string quarterback Case Keenum.

I think that’s an overreaction to that loss, which wasn’t quite as bad as the final score suggested. The Ravens’ offense looked horrible, moving the chains at a 56.67% rate, but their defense held the Texans to a 55.88% rate. It’s not a tremendous accomplishment for the defense, considering who the Texans’ quarterback was, but it still suggests that the game was closer than the final score. The Ravens do well off of a big loss in the Harbaugh/Flacco era anyway, going 9-2 ATS since 2008 off of a double digit loss. Last week’s loss was on the road anyway and, as I mentioned earlier, the Ravens are much better at home.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Browns are in their 2nd of two road games. This puts them in a good spot. Teams are 113-77 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 96-55 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 196-200 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.29 points per game, as opposed to 276-392 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.19 points per game. However, I still like the Ravens’ chances of bouncing back in a big way off of last week’s fluky defeat for all the reasons I outlined earlier.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Cleveland Browns 9

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -9

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Browns, Panthers, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (7-7) at Carolina Panthers (5-8-1)

The Browns had a horrific showing last week at home in Johnny Manziel’s debut losing the first down battle 5-24 against the Bengals and moving the chains at a 35.71% rate, as opposed to 78.38% for the Bengals. As a result of that, this line with Carolina favored by 4 is pretty reasonable. On the season, the Browns move the chains at a 68.28% rate, as opposed to 70.21% for their opponents, a differential of -1.94% that ranks 25th. The Panthers, meanwhile, rank 19th, moving the chains at a 73.45% rate, as opposed to 74.25% for their opponents, a differential of -0.80%.

However, teams generally do well off of a home shutout loss, going 40-26 ATS since 1989 off of a home game in which they didn’t score any points. On top of that, teams are 82-47 ATS since 2002 off of an ATS loss off of 28 or more. It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. I don’t think the Browns are undervalued, but they could easily be overlooked and embarrassed. Johnny Manziel, in particular, has been listening all week to how much of a bust he is, even though he’s made just one start and he’s 5 months removed from being a first round pick. I don’t expect him to be nearly as caught off guard this week, humbled off the worst performance of his career.

Neither of these two teams is in a good spot with tough divisional road games next week, Cleveland in Baltimore and Carolina in Atlanta. However, the Browns are in the worse spot. Non-divisional road underdogs (like the Browns) are 51-83 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road underdogs since 2002, while non-divisional home favorites (like the Panthers) are 89-106 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. I’m taking the Browns because I like their bounce back potential off of such an ugly loss and I don’t like how everyone is already writing off Johnny Football, but they’re not in a great spot, we’re not getting any line value with them, and Manziel is still unproven, so I’m not confident.

Carolina Panthers 19 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +4

Confidence: None

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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bengals, Browns, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (8-4-1) at Cleveland Browns (7-6)

This line has shifted from the Bengals being favored by 1.5 earlier in the week to the Browns now being favored by 1.5. That erased a powerful trend working against the Bengals and replaced it with a powerful trend that works for the Bengals. That first trend says that road favorites are 77-120 ATS before being home underdogs since 1989 (the Bengals have the Broncos coming to town next week). The other trend says that divisional home favorites are 25-49 ATS since 2002 against a divisional opponent that they previously beat as road underdogs during that same regular season.

However, I’m still going with the Browns for a variety of reasons. The most obvious one is that that line movement isn’t that significant because it’s not only still within the field goals, but it’s between 2 points in either direction. The second reason is that the Bengals still have a really tough game against the Broncos next week. Teams are 60-94 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, including 31-65 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs (the early line is Denver -4). The Browns have a much easier game up next with a trip to Carolina on deck.

On top of that, that 25-49 ATS trend only makes sense when two teams are even. In divisional matchups where the homefield advantage decides who is the favorite, generally those two teams are essentially even. Divisional opponents that are essentially even generally split the season series. That seems to happen even if the road team pulls the upset in the first matchup, as the road underdog wins about half the time (39-38) in the rematch and covers at that aforementioned 2/3rds rate. These two teams are not even though.

They’re not uneven in the way you think either. The Browns actually rank significantly better than the Bengals this season. The Browns rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 69.36% rate, as opposed to 69.34% for their opponents, a differential of 0.02%. The Bengals, meanwhile, rank 26th, moving the chains at a 71.32% rate, as opposed to 73.85% for their opponents, a differential of -2.53%. That’s before you take into account that Johnny Manziel should upgrade the Browns’ offense in his first start. Manziel won’t necessarily be great, especially not right away, but he’ll probably be better than Hoyer, who was really struggling, leading the NFL’s 25th ranked offense in rate of moving the chains.

If their offense is even slightly improved, the Browns, with a defense that ranks 2nd in rate of moving the chains allowed, are significantly better than the Bengals. Not only does that nullify that trend in my mind, but that means we’re getting significant line value with the Browns. The final reason I still like the Browns is because that line movement is a result of the sharps being all over Cleveland this week. I agree with them and I have a good deal of confidence as long as this line is 3 or less.

Cleveland Browns 20 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -1.5

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Browns, Colts, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Cleveland Browns (7-5)

The Browns are in a bad spot here with the Bengals coming to town net week. Teams are 15-30 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional home underdogs. However, they should still be the right side. This line is too high at 3.5. That means the Colts would be 9.5 point favorites in Indianapolis. Last week, they were favored by 10 over Washington, who is not as good as Cleveland. The public is still all over the Colts though because they don’t put enough value in homefield advantage and don’t understand how the Colts wouldn’t win by 4 or more here. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because they always lose money in the long run and it makes sense here.

On the season, the Browns rank 15th, moving the chains at a 70.48% rate, as opposed to 69.77% for their opponents, a differential of 0.71%, while the Colts rank 3rd, moving the chains at a 77.29% rate, as opposed to 72.54% for their opponents, a differential of 4.75%. The Colts don’t deserve to be 3.5 point favorites here, especially when you take into account that Vontae Davis will be out for the Colts. Davis is easily the Colts’ top defensive player on an otherwise pedestrian defense. The Browns should keep this close, but I’m not that confident.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Cleveland Browns 24

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3.5

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bills, Browns, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (7-4) at Buffalo Bills (6-5)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Browns are in their 2nd of two road games, which tends to be a good spot for teams. Teams are 46-26 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a win as road underdogs. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 187-191 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.36 points per game, as opposed to 262-380 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.34 points per game.

On the other hand, the Bills are coming off of a Monday Night Football blowout win. Teams are 33-15 ATS since 2002 off of a win on Monday Night Football by 21 or more. Teams tend to carry that momentum into the next week. However, it’s unclear if that will still happen because the Bills played a weird Monday Night game last week, beating the Jets 38-3 in Detroit in a game that started at 7 PM ET and that wasn’t nationally televised, as a result of a snowstorm forcing to location and the time of the game to be changed. That adds uncertainty to the situation this week.

Both of these two teams have tough games next week, as the Bills head to Denver and the Browns host the Colts. Non-divisional home favorites are 73-99 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional road underdogs. Even worse, the Bills could be double digit underdogs in Denver next week. Teams are 42-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs as a tough game like that upcoming presents a massive distraction. The early line is 9.5 so that trend might not be in play, but it’s still worth mentioning and the logic could still hold either way.

On the Browns’ side, non-divisional road underdogs are 92-126 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 57-89 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012. The early line is right at 3 and may end up being less than 3, so that trend isn’t definitely in play, but again it’s worth mentioning and the logic still holds. The Browns are the better of these two teams, moving the chains at a 71.19% rate, as opposed to 70.73% for their opponents, a differential of 0.46% that ranks 17th in the NFL. The Bills, meanwhile, rank just 22nd, moving the chains at a 66.25% rate, as opposed to 68.22% for their opponents, a differential of -1.97%. However, this line is under 3 so we’re not really getting any real line value with the Browns. I’m going to take the Bills and hope the home team wins by a field goal and continues their momentum from last week, but I’m not confident at all.

Buffalo Bills 16 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -2.5

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Browns, Falcons, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-6)

This is probably the game I have a least feel for this week. On one hand, the Browns are a little bit better than the Falcons and this line at 3 suggests that these two teams are even with homefield advantage. The Browns rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 70.40% rate, as opposed to 70.12% for their opponents, a differential of 0.29%. The Falcons, meanwhile, rank 20th, moving the chains at a 73.19% rate, as opposed to 75.00% for their opponents, a differential of -1.81%. However, this isn’t normal homefield advantage as Matt Ryan is 31-20 ATS at home in his career dating back to 2008. I’m taking the Falcons, but I’m not confident at all.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -3

Confidence: None

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Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Browns, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (4-5) at Cleveland Browns (6-3)

This is a tough one because I don’t really have any significant trends for either side. The Browns are the better team and we’re probably getting some line value with them as mere 3.5 point favorites, especially with Arian Foster out. The Browns rank 15th, moving the chains at a 70.53% rate, as opposed to 69.36% for their opponents, a differential of 1.17%, while the Texans rank 24th, moving the chains at a 70.19% rate, as opposed to 73.33% for their opponents, a differential of -3.14%.

However, I’m worried about taking the Browns after they’ve had 10 days to listen to the media blow smoke in their ass after their win over Cincinnati. While they’re better than the Texans, they’re still not as good as their record so that could be very dangerous for them. The public is also on the Browns and hate taking a publicly backed side unless I have good reason as the odds makers always make money in the long run. The fact that this line is 3.5 instead of 3 also scares me as this could easily be a field goal game. I’m still taking the Browns, but I’m not confident at all.

Cleveland Browns 17 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -3.5

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bengals, Browns, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (5-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2-1)

The Bengals have a solid record at 5-2-1, but they are 2-0-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and they have a +7 point differential and their two losses came by a combined 53 points. They aren’t nearly as good as their record or as good as they’ve been in recent years, as a result of injuries to guys like AJ Green, Kevin Zeitler, Marvin Jones, Vontaze Burfict, Leon Hall, and Giovani Bernard and off-season losses of guys like Michael Johnson, Anthony Collins, and coordinators Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer.

Green is back now, but they are still missing a lot of very important guys. They are 22nd in the NFL, moving the chains at a 72.18% rate, as opposed to 74.91% for their opponents, a differential of -2.73%. The Browns aren’t as good as their record either, but they still rank higher than the Bengals. They rank 19th, moving the chains at a 70.52% rate, as opposed to 71.43% for their opponents, a differential of -0.91%.

However, the Bengals have been a lot better at home this season, moving the chains at a 78.49% rate, as opposed to 73.29% for their opponents, a differential of 5.20%. This is nothing new for them as they have been dominant at home over the past 2 seasons. The Bengals are 12-1-1 at home over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.64 points per game, going 11-3 against the spread. That being said, they’ve been overrated all season because of their record so that has nullified most of that homefield advantage. Last week, I was hesitant to pick them at home as 11.5 point favorites over Jacksonville, a game in which they won by 10. They’re still a way better home team than road team, but they aren’t an auto-bet at home anymore.

Given that, I like the Browns this week as they are in a good spot. While the Bengals have to go to New Orleans next week, the Browns host the mediocre Texans, which is going to be a much smaller distraction. Teams are 49-35 ATS as divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008. Going off that, teams are 60-98 ATS since 2010 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. The Browns should be the right side and if this line moves to a touchdown before game time it might become a medium confidence pick.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +6.5

Confidence: Low

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Browns, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-3)

The Browns are at the end of one of the easiest stretches of play any team in the league has this season, as they went to 0-6 Jacksonville, hosted 0-6 Oakland, and now host 1-6 Tampa Bay. However, next week they have to go to Cincinnati for Thursday Night Football. Teams are 85-105 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional favorites, including 33-56 ATS since 1989 as non-divisional home favorites of a touchdown or more before being divisional road underdogs of a field goal or more. On the opposite side of the coin, the Buccaneers host the Falcons up next, any easier game that is going to provide significantly less of a distraction for the Buccaneers than the Bengals’ game will for the Browns. Teams are 121-90 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites.

Combining the two, teams are 57-96 ATS since 2010 as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites. Making matters even worse for the Browns is the fact that the game against the Bengals is a Thursday Night Game, which will make that game even more of a distraction. Favorites are 35-56 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a Thursday Night Game. I like the Buccaneers chances of keeping this one close and maybe even pulling an upset (like they did in Pittsburgh) against a team in a bad situation. The Buccaneers have actually only lost two games by more than a touchdown this season, as bad as their record is. As long as the line is a touchdown, it’s a big play on the Buccaneers.

Cleveland Browns 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +7

Confidence: High

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