Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 17 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9) at Carolina Panthers (14-1)

The Panthers’ undefeated season attempt ended with last week’s road loss in Atlanta, but that doesn’t mean that the Panthers are going take it easy in their final regular season game this week. In fact, it likely means the opposite because now their week 17 game is meaningful, as they need a win to hold onto the #1 seed. A loss at home to the Buccaneers, coupled with an Arizona home win over the Seattle Seahawks, drops Carolina into the #2 seed.

Fortunately for them, the Panthers have a pretty easy matchup, hosting Tampa Bay, who ranks 21st in rate of moving the chains differential. The Panthers, who rank 2nd in that metric, are favored by 10.5 points here. Given that, I think it’s more of a question of how much the Panthers will win by, as opposed to whether or not they’ll win. The Panthers are kind of banged up right now, especially relative to the rest of the season, as they’ve overall benefitted from good health. Now, running back Jonathan Stewart, safety Kurt Coleman, and wide receiver Ted Ginn are all out. I’m still laying the 10.5 points with Carolina, but not with any confidence.

Carolina Panthers 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -10.5

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bears, Buccaneers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (5-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8)

This line suggests that these two teams are even and that the Buccaneers have a standard homefield advantage, as the Buccaneers are favored by a field goal at home. I don’t agree with either of those. The Buccaneers are just 18-36 ATS at home since 2009 and have been outscored by 48 points at home on the season this year, as opposed to +6 on the road. They also rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, a few spots lower than the Bears, who rank 18th.

On top of that, the Bears were missing Jay Cutler for two games, which skews that number a little bit. In the 12 games Cutler has been healthy, they’ve moved the chains at a 72.03% rate, as opposed to 56.25% in the other 2 games. Granted, those two games Cutler missed were against Seattle and Arizona, arguably the two toughest defenses they’ve faced, so they probably wouldn’t have had much success either way, but there’s no denying the Bears would rank higher if Cutler had been healthy all year, like he is now.

The Bears have also faced a much tougher schedule than the Buccaneers, ranking 2nd in strength of schedule, as opposed to 30th for the Buccaneers. The Bears have been a slightly better team than the Buccaneers this season, despite a way tougher schedule, and despite missing their starting quarterback for two games, but despite that, they’re 3 point underdogs here in Tampa Bay, where the Buccaneers have had little to no homefield advantage in recent years. We’re definitely getting line value with the Bears.

The Bears are also in a way better spot, as they host the Lions next week, while the Buccaneers have to go to Carolina. With their season over in terms of their playoff chances, the Buccaneers could definitely get caught looking forward to their chance at ending the Panthers undefeated season. While the Bears are expected to be favored by 1.5 points next week at home against the Lions, the Buccaneers are expected to be 10 point underdogs in Carolina, per the early line.

The Panthers could definitely end up deciding to rest their starters at least somewhat in that one, with the #1 seed likely to be locked up by then, but they might not with a perfect season on the line and that game could easily serve as a distraction for the Buccaneers this week either way. Teams are 37-58 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs and 37-60 ATS since 2002 as favorites before being double digit underdogs. On top of that, favorites are just 103-169 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. Combining the two trends, teams are 20-47 ATS since 1989 as favorites before being double digit underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites.

It also helps the Bears that they are in their 2nd of 2 road games. Teams are 128-94 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 104-64 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 223-224 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.49 points per game, as opposed to 320-435 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.70 points per game. I love the Bears this week. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because talented wide receiver Alshon Jeffery is expected to be a gametime decision for the Bears.

Chicago Bears 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Chicago +3

Confidence: High

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at St. Louis Rams (5-8)

Ordinarily, non-divisional home favorites do really well on Thursday nights, going 26-13 ATS since 2002. It makes sense. It’s tough for a team to face an unfamiliar and superior opponent on a short week on the road. The Rams are non-divisional home favorites on Thursday night here, but they are not the superior team, ranking 31st in rate of moving the chains differential. Defensive end Robert Quinn, safety TJ McDonald, and outside linebacker Alec Ogletree are all out for the season right now, so the Rams are far less talented defensively than their 6th place rank in rate of moving the chains allowed suggests. Offensively, they don’t just rank dead last in rate of moving the chains; they’re also arguably the worst offense I’ve seen in years. The Buccaneers are not a great team, but they’re significantly more talented than the Rams and rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential. The Rams shouldn’t be favored here.

The Rams are only favored by a point and a half, so we’re not getting a ton of line value with the Buccaneers, but the Buccaneers are also in a way better spot. While they get to host the Bears next week, a game in which they’ll be favored, the Rams have to go to Seattle and face a surging Seahawks team, a game in which they’ll definitely be underdogs. Underdogs are 115-77 ATS before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, since 2010.

Not only are the Rams underdogs next week, but they’ll probably be double digit underdogs in arguably the toughest game of their season. That’s really going to make it hard to focus this week. Teams are understandably 89-146 ATS since 2008 before being double digit underdogs, including 18-31 ATS as favorites. Combining all this, teams are just 19-47 ATS since 1989 as favorites before being double digit underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. On top of that, the Rams are coming off of a win as home underdogs, a spot teams are 44-72 ATS in since 2012. This is Pick of the Week material if the line climbs to a field goal. I like the Buccaneers a good deal either way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 St. Louis Rams 13 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +1.5

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Saints 26-19 as 10 point underdogs in New Orleans earlier this year. However, there are two reasons why the Saints could easily get revenge. For one, they’re in a great spot as divisional road underdogs are 54-31 ATS in a same season regular season rematch against a team they previously lost to as divisional home favorites, since 2002. Revenge is far from uncommon in divisional matchups similar to this one. Secondly, the Buccaneers have never had much of a homefield advantage, as they are 18-35 ATS at home since 2009.

The Buccaneers are also in a bad spot, as they are expected to be road underdogs in St. Louis next week, while the Saints will be home favorites against the Lions. Favorites (like the Buccaneers) are 98-167 ATS before being underdogs (as they will be next week), if their opponent will next be favorites (like the Saints will be next week). However, the Buccaneers are only one point underdogs in St. Louis on the early line next week, so they could easily up being road favorites and the logic doesn’t really hold up either way because the Rams aren’t good enough for the Buccaneers to get caught looking forward to them. However, the Buccaneers do have to play again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football and that hurts them, as favorites are 47-70 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. With the Buccaneers favored by 5 points and about 3 in 10 games decided by 4 or fewer points, I’m confident putting money on the Saints.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 New Orleans Saints 30

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +5

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Falcons, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (6-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)

The Falcons started the season a surprising 5-0, but have since fallen back to earth, losing 5 of 6, putting them in a fight to even make the playoffs. Considering 3 of those 5 wins were by a touchdown or less and the best team they beat was probably the Giants (a 24-20 win), that’s not too much of a surprise, but the fact remains that they’ve lost to New Orleans, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Indianapolis, and Minnesota, all teams they were favored against. Their only win in their last 5 games was by 3 in Tennessee, when the Titans were playing without starting quarterback Marcus Mariota. The Falcons have lost 7 straight games against the spread, making them just the 30th team since 1989 to do that.

That seems to have caused the odds makers to knock them down, to the point where they might be underrated now. Teams are 15-8 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of 7+ straight against the spread losses. I know it’s a sample size, but, again this doesn’t happen very often and it makes sense that teams in this spot would cover at a higher rate. The Falcons rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Buccaneers rank 23rd (and are missing defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, arguably their best player) and yet the Buccaneers just 2 point favorites at home, after being favored by 1.5 at home last week. I love to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, so the Falcons look like a good pick in this one.

The Falcons are also in a great spot. They lost to the Buccaneers earlier this year as home favorites in Baltimore, but teams are 54-30 ATS as divisional road underdogs in a regular season rematch against a divisional opponent they previously lost to as home favorites. Besides, the Buccaneers have had next to no homefield advantage in recent years so the location of this game doesn’t matter as much as a normal divisional matchup would. The Buccaneers are just 17-35 ATS at home since 2009. If we were getting a field goal with the Falcons, they’d be my Pick of the Week, and I’d still put money on them as 2 point underdogs. I’d take Atlanta up to field goal favorites.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +2

Confidence: High

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Colts, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5)

Matt Hasselbeck is 3-0 as the Colts’ starter and the Colts have moved the chains at a 72.04% rate in his 3 starts, as opposed to 69.66% in Andrew Luck’s 7 starts. Certainly getting Luck back healthy for the stretch run and playoffs is very important because, at his best, he’s way better than Hasselbeck, but Luck hasn’t played well so far this year and it’s definitely been nice for them to have a capable game manager backup quarterback like Hasselbeck this year. The Colts’ defense has also been better than it has been in recent years, though losing talented rookie defensive end Henry Anderson for the season last week hurts. He was a big part of why they improved.

Anderson’s injury is one injury that gives me pause when I think about putting money on the Colts this week. The other is a knee injury to talented left tackle Anthony Castonzo, who will miss his first game of the season this week. The Colts rank 13th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season and have been better offensively when Hasselbeck starts, while the Buccaneers rank 21st, so I think we’re still getting value with the Colts as mere field goal favorites at home (where they are 20-10 ATS since 2012).

It’s also good to see that the public is on the Buccaneers, despite the line moving from 3.5 to the key number of 3 in the past week. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so that line movement is more significant than you might think.  I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because they always lose money in the long run and I love fading a significant line movement whenever it makes sense because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. By taking Indianapolis here, I’d be able to do both. However, I can’t quite bring myself to put money on the Colts, so this is a low confidence pick. If the line dips down to 2.5 (unlikely), I’ll reconsider.

Update: This spread has dropped to 2.5, so I’m moving this up to a medium confidence pick.

Indianapolis Colts 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Eagles, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-5)

The Eagles are only favored by 6 points here over the Buccaneers this week, after being favored by 8 points in the early line last week. I think that’s too low, as the Eagles rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Buccaneers rank 26th in rate of moving the chains. The Eagles are going to be without quarterback Sam Bradford in this one, but I’m not so sure that Mark Sanchez is much of a downgrade. Sanchez is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL and the Eagles offense has struggled this season, ranking 20th in rate of moving the chains. They’ve been carried by a defense that ranks 6th.

I can’t be confident in the Eagles for two reasons. For one, they’re missing running back Ryan Mathews and possibly left tackle Jason Peters with injury, while Tampa Bay is just missing defensive end George Johnson. The second reason is that the Eagles play in Detroit on Thanksgiving in 4 days. Favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game. The Eagles have a strong defense and should be able to cover as 6 point favorites at home here over Tampa Bay, but I’m not confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Cowboys, NFL Draft, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)

The Cowboys have lost 6 straight games since losing Tony Romo to a broken collarbone week 2. Romo is expected back next week, when he’s first eligible to come off of injured reserve, but it could be too late. It will be too late if they lose here in Tampa Bay. Fortunately, Tampa Bay is arguably the easiest opponent they’ll face this season. They rank 30th in rate of moving the chains differential and have an awful homefield advantage, going 16-35 ATS (1-3 ATS this season) at home since 2009. Given that, the Cowboys should probably be favored by a little bit more than the point they’re favored by here.

It might sound weird to say that a team that has lost 6 straight games should be favored on the road, but the Buccaneers have just been so bad at home this season (getting outscored 142-93). Besides, the Cowboys are better than their record, ranking 19th in rate of moving the chains differential. Of their 6 losses, 4 have come by less than a touchdown. They’ll miss Sean Lee with injury this week, but getting Dez Bryant back to 100%, like he appears to be after last week’s performance, should help cancel that out a little bit. Matt Cassel isn’t the best quarterback in the world, but the Cowboys have a strong offensive supporting cast around him. The Buccaneers are missing Vincent Jackson and, even if this turns into a shootout, I think the Cowboys can still keep up and win against Tampa Bay’s awful defense.

It’s tough to love the Cowboys as long as the line is between a field goal either way though, as about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. On top of that, the line has been alternating. If the Buccaneers are underdogs, it puts them in a good spot, as home underdogs are 75-52 ATS off of a loss as home underdogs. However, if the Cowboys are underdogs, they’re in a good spot because the Cowboys are 20-11 ATS as road underdogs since 2009. Basically, I see this as a field goal game. I expect the Cowboys to win, but not enough to put money on them without field goal protection.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

Pick against the spread: Dallas -1

Confidence: Low

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New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Giants, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

New York Giants (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)

The Buccaneers have not had much homefield advantage over the past few years. Since 2009, they are 15-36 at home, getting outscored by an average of 6.10 points per game, as opposed to 17-33 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 6.12 points per game. On top of that, the Buccaneers are just 16-34 ATS at home over that time period. On the other side, the Giants typically travel well in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era (2004), going 60-39 ATS on the road over that time period.

It also helps the Giants that they’re in their 2nd straight road game. Road favorites are 49-34 ATS off of a road loss in their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 208-213 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.50 points per game, as opposed to 296-414 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.97 points per game.

The spread, 2.5 in favor of the visiting Giants, does seem to take that into account though, at least somewhat. The Buccaneers aren’t very good, ranking 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, but neither are the Giants, who rank 24th. The Buccaneers and the Giants rank last and 2nd to last respectively in rate of moving the chains allowed on the season, so this could definitely be a shootout that goes back and forth. I wish we were getting field goal protection with the Buccaneers, because about one in six games is decided by a field goal, but we’re not really getting much, if any, line value with the Giants, despite their road prowess and the Buccaneers’ home struggles. The public is also all over the Giants, which makes the Buccaneers a more attractive option, considering the public always loses money in the long run.

The Giants are getting defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul back this week, after he missed the first 8 games of the season, following an off-season firework accident. However, it’s unclear what he can give them in his first game back, as he adjusts to playing with a mangled hand, and the Giants still have a bunch of injuries, with middle linebacker Jon Beason, cornerback Prince Amukamara, and wide receiver Victor Cruz all still out. The Buccaneers have a fair amount of injuries as well, with wide receiver Vincent Jackson, defensive end Jacquies Smith, and safety Major Wright all out, but, like the Giants, they’ve dealt with injuries all season, so this is nothing new.

The Giants are also in an awful spot, hosting the Patriots next week, arguably the toughest game of their season. The early line has them as 6.5 point home underdogs in that one. Road favorites are 30-45 ATS since 2008 before being home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 41-80 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4+, 21-52 ATS before being home underdogs of 6+, and 13-30 ATS before being home underdogs of 7+, over that same time period. Combining the two, road favorites are 10-27 ATS since 1989 before being home underdogs of 6+.

The Buccaneers, on the other hand, are in a good spot, off of an overtime win in Atlanta last week. Teams tend to carry over that momentum as teams are 57-41 ATS since 1989 off of a road overtime win as underdogs, including 29-17 ATS as underdogs. There’s enough here for me to put money on the Buccaneers. This will be an even higher confidence pick if the line moves to a field goal or more before game time, which it could. Don’t lock this one in until tomorrow morning.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 New York Giants 24 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Falcons, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) at Atlanta Falcons (6-1)

The Falcons aren’t quite as good as their 6-1 record, as evidenced by their recent road loss in New Orleans and mere 3 point victory in Tennessee against a Titans team that was playing without Marcus Mariota. However, they still rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 31st for the Buccaneers. Given that, this line seems too low at -7 and I think we’re getting a good amount of line value with the Falcons, now back at home.

On top of that, the Falcons are beneficiaries of a significant week-to-week line movement. This line was 9 a week ago, but now it’s down to a touchdown, likely a result of the Buccaneers’ near win in Washington and the Falcons’ near loss in Tennessee. I love fading significant line movements like that because they tend to be overreactions to one week of play and I think that’s true here. The Buccaneers are one of the worst teams in the league and should not be underdogs of any less than 10 in this one.

The Falcons are also in a better spot, with an easy road game in San Francisco on deck, a game in which the Falcons are expected to be favored by 4 points. Teams are 106-80 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, 68-48 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites, and 42-28 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites. If the Falcons were to end up being 6+ point road favorites in San Francisco (as they were in Tennessee, against a Titans team that’s better than the 49ers), that would open up another trend as favorites of 6+ are 77-38 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6+ again. Even if that line doesn’t end up moving past 6, this logic still holds. Good teams tend to take care of business and win big with no upcoming distractions on the horizon. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, host the Giants, a game in which they’re expected to be underdogs of a couple points at home.

It does help the Buccaneers that they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 120-86 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 98-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 204-212 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 296-411 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.94 points per game.

However, as long as this line doesn’t go above a touchdown, I’m still confident putting money on the Falcons. They’re the vastly better team. They have no upcoming distractions. They also have the better injury situation. They are missing safety William Moore and wide receiver Leonard Hankerson, but the Buccaneers will be without safety Major Wright, wide receiver Vincent Jackson, tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and defensive tackle Clinton McDonald. The reason this isn’t a higher confidence pick is because of all the public action on Atlanta and the fact that the Buccaneers are in their 2nd of two road games, but I’m still pretty confident in Atlanta. Tampa Bay isn’t very good and could get down big early.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -7

Confidence: Medium

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