Chiefs

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (3-9) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-5)

The Chargers are just 3-9, one of the worst records in the NFL, but rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential. How can that be? Well, their record is largely the result of a 3-5 record in games decided by a touchdown (3-6 in games decided by 8 points or fewer), a -8 turnover margin, a -5 return touchdown margin, a -8.2 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -3.7 net punt margin. On the season, they’ve actually outgained their opponents. None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team, but rather that they have the framework of a decent team and just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 7 of 12 games and could easily be 5-7, 6-6, or even 7-5.

Because of this, I’ve been putting money on them pretty religiously of late, but that’s been a mistake because they’ve been at home in 4 of their last 6 games. The Chargers have had basically no homefield advantage this season. They seem to have no fans in San Diego, so their stadium has been overrun with visiting fans pretty much every game this year, meaning they essentially have to play 16 road games this season. I feel bad for the few Chargers fans who do show up because they’re going to lose their team, but the Chargers have a borderline obligation to move up to Los Angeles if this continues. It’s not fair to the team to not have any true home games and it also really hurts their chances of signing key free agents. The Chargers are 1-6 ATS at home this season. I should have known earlier in the season not to bet them at home, but I know now and better late than never.

On the road is a different story. The Chargers have covered their last 3 road games and, while they’re 3-2 ATS on the road overall this season, one of their non-covers was a 5 point loss as 3 point underdogs in Cincinnati against the Bengals, who turned out to be one of the best teams in the league. The Chargers have just one double digit road loss this season and, if they can keep it close on the road against the Bengals and Packers (two teams the Chiefs have lost to), they should be able to keep it close in Kansas City.

Given all of that, this line is way too high at 10.5. The line was actually 8 last week, but it has since shifted and I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. The public is still on the Chiefs though because they remember the Chiefs’ 33-3 win in San Diego a few weeks ago. It was a bad loss, but that was the Chargers’ worst performance of the season (and arguably the Chiefs’ best), so it’s important not to focus on that game too much, especially since we know that the game being in San Diego isn’t really an advantage for the Chargers. The Chargers are also in a great spot in this one, hosting the lowly Dolphins next week, a game in which the Chargers are expected to be favored. Double digit underdogs are 54-32 ATS since 2002 before being favorites.

The Chargers are banged up in this one, missing wide receivers Steve Johnson and Dontrelle Inman, defensive end Corey Liuget, and cornerback Brandon Flowers, but they’ve been banged up all season. The Chargers’ offense hasn’t been the same since losing top wide receiver Keenan Allen, but the Chiefs are banged up right now too, missing safety Husain Abdullah, defensive end Mike DeVito, and, most importantly, outside linebacker Justin Houston. Houston is one of the best edge rushers in the league and the Chiefs defense did not look the same without him in Oakland last week. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because the Chiefs are favored by 5 on the early line in Baltimore next week and teams are 75-51 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites and 46-30 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites, since 2012. The Chargers are the right side though.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: San Diego +10.5

Confidence: High

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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) at Oakland Raiders (5-6)

This line was 2.5 in favor of the Chiefs on the early line last week, but has since moved to a field goal. It might not seem like it, but, considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal exactly, it’s a significant line movement. I like to fade significant line movements whenever it makes sense and I think it makes sense here. The Raiders are missing key players, as defensive end Justin Tuck went down for the season week 5, outside linebacker Aldon Smith got suspended for a year week 11, and center Rodney Hudson will miss his 3rd game in the last 4 weeks. Those were all key players to their hot early start

However, the Chiefs are shorthanded as well, missing outside linebacker Justin Houston (one of the top defensive players in the league), center Mitch Morse, and safety Husain Abdullah. The Chiefs rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Raiders rank 15th, so it doesn’t make a ton of sense that the Chiefs are favored by a whole field goal in Oakland. Despite that, the public is all over the Chiefs. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because the public always loses money in the long run and I’d be able to fade the public and a significant line movement by taking the Raiders here. That certainly makes sense and I’m taking the field goal with confidence.

Oakland Raiders 19 Kansas City Chiefs 17 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Oakland +3

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bills, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (5-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)

This line was a field goal a week ago on the early line, but has since jumped to 6. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but, in this case, I think the line is just catching up to how good the Chiefs are. They’ve won 4 straight, including huge wins in Denver and San Diego over the past 2 weeks by a combined score of 62-16, following a tough early season schedule that caused them to start 1-5. Of their 5 losses, 4 of them came against Green Bay, Denver, Cincinnati, and Minnesota, all likely playoff teams, and their other loss came by one point against the Bears, a decent team. They rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, led by a defense that ranks 9th in rate of moving the chains allowed and that has been a lot better since getting top cornerback Sean Smith back from the suspension that cost him the first 3 games of the season.

The Bills, meanwhile, rank 22nd, so the Chiefs being favored by 6 makes a lot of sense. This line might even be too low, if anything. The Chiefs are banged up, missing defensive end Allen Bailey, guard Ben Grubbs, and possibly running back Charcandrick West, who seems to be a gametime decision. However, so are the Bills, who are missing defensive tackle Kyle Williams, defensive end Mario Williams, and guard John Miller. On top of that, quarterback Tyrod Taylor has a shoulder injury and is less than 100%. It’s tough to pick a side in this one with the line shooting up to 6, but the Chiefs should be the right side.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -6

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) at San Diego Chargers (2-7)

The Chargers had their bye last week and it came at a perfect time, as it allowed them to get much healthier. Left tackle King Dunlap, left guard Orlando Franklin, tight end Antonio Gates, and safety Eric Weddle, all of whom have missed significant time with injury in recent weeks, all come out of the bye healthy. That’s great news because they’re all key players and the Chargers have been one of the most banged up teams in the league this season. They’re still missing top wide receiver Keenan Allen for the season and right guard DJ Fluker and wide receiver Malcom Floyd will join him this week, but they’re still significantly healthier than they normally are.

Despite all of their injuries, the Chargers have been a solid team this season. You wouldn’t know it from their record, as they’re 2-7, but they rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential. Their record is largely the result of a 2-5 record in games decided by a touchdown, a -5 turnover margin, a -3 return touchdown margin, a -6.6 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -6.2 net punt margin. None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team though, but rather that they have the framework of a good team and just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 6 of 9 games and could easily be 4-5, 5-4, or even 6-3. The Chiefs only rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential, so it’s surprising that they’re favored by more than a field goal here on the road in San Diego, especially considering close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. That’s enough for me to take the Chargers with confidence.

San Diego Chargers 23 Kansas City Chiefs 20 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: San Diego +3.5

Confidence: High

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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (3-5) at Denver Broncos (7-1)

The Chiefs only have three wins, while the Broncos have seven, but the Chiefs actually rank higher than the Broncos in rate of moving the chains differential; While the Broncos rank 17th, the Chiefs rank 15th. How can that be? Well, the Broncos are 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or fewer and the Chiefs are 1-3. These two teams are closer than their records. It hurt the Chiefs losing running back Jamaal Charles for the season with a torn ACL a few weeks back, but the Chiefs’ offense hasn’t really been slowed, as their passing game and offensive line have been a lot better over the past few weeks and backup running back Charcandrick West has impressed. The Chiefs are also missing defensive end Allen Bailey and left guard Ben Grubbs, but the Broncos are missing defensive end DeMarcus Ware and possibly wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders for this one.

This line might feel too low at 4.5, as it seems to for most of the public, as they’re on the Broncos, but it’s actually too high. Considering close to a quarter of games are decided by a field goal or less, this line shouldn’t be any higher than 3. The odds makers have dropped the line throughout the week (it opened at 6), despite public action, never a good sign considering the odds makers always win in the long run. It’s not enough for me to confidently take the Chiefs, especially with the Broncos having an easy game in Chicago next week (teams are 73-50 ATS before being road favorites of 6+ since 2010), but they should be the right side.

Denver Broncos 16 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +4.5

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick in London

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (1-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-5) in London

Typically, the better team covers in London. This wasn’t true last week, when Jacksonville was able to beat Buffalo (favored by 4.5) in a close one, but favorites have covered in 8 of the last 11 London games (8-5 ATS all-time). It’s a small sample size, but it makes sense, as favorites also tend to be more organized teams capable of playing this type of weird game. The odds makers say the Chiefs are the better of these two teams here and I agree, as the Chiefs rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Lions rank 28th.

However, I do think this line is too high at 3.5. I have this line calculated around 1.5 and it was at 2.5 a week ago, before shifting a point, following Kansas City’s second win of the season last week and Detroit losing at home against Minnesota, falling to 1-6, and firing their offensive coordinator. It might not seem like a big shift, but 15.6% of games are decided by exactly a field goal, so it matters. These two teams are very evenly matched so it could definitely come down to a field goal, so the+3.5 is appealing to me.

The Chiefs are also pretty banged up, missing guard Ben Grubbs, defensive end Mike DeVito, and going into only their 3rd game without stud feature back Jamaal Charles. The Lions are missing outside linebacker DeAndre Levy, but he has only played 17 snaps all season (part of why they’ve been so bad) so they’re used to it. The Lions seem like the right side, but I can’t put money on a 1-6 team who is travelling across the ocean and who has just fired their offensive coordinator, especially since the public is on the underdog here.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)

Ben Roethlisberger has missed the last 3 games with injury, but he practiced some this week and has travelled to Kansas City for this game. He’s not expected to play, but the possibility that he is able to go is worth thinking about when taking a side in this one. He reportedly could talk his way into starting, but it sounds unlikely. That severely hurts the Steelers’ chances. The Steelers moved the chains at a 78.65% rate in the first 3 games of their season with Roethlisberger, but have moved them at just a 62.20% rate over the past 3 weeks.

They’ve gone 2-1 in those 3 games, but have lost the rate of moving the chains battle in all 3. They won at the last second in San Diego and could have easily lost by 10 if not for a Philip Rivers pick six, a long touchdown throw from Michael Vick, and 3 dropped Vick interceptions by the Chargers’ defense. With the exception of a few plays, they were dominated in that game. Last week, at home for Arizona, they only won because they won the turnover battle by 3, which is tough to rely on. Teams who win the turnover battle by 3, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week.

Michael Vick was awful in Roethlisberger’s absence, but it’ll be 3rd string quarterback Landry Jones in this one, as Vick is hurt as well. The Steelers have called up Tyler Murphy from the practice squad, a sign that Roethlisberger is not expected to be active, and he should backup Jones. Jones played well in Vick’s absence last week, completing 8 of 12 for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns. It’s worth mentioning that the Cardinals were likely just caught unprepared for Jones and Jones had never attempted a pass in his career prior to last week, but he’s got a great offensive supporting cast around him and is an upgrade over Vick, who is done.

This one is really tough to predict, as a result of the Steelers’ quarterback situation. The Steelers’ defense has been better this season than last season, to compensate for their offense, but they’ll be without breakout star Stephon Tuitt in this one. On the other side, the Chiefs could be without starters Dontari Poe and Mike DeVito on the defensive line and are also without stud running back Jamaal Charles. They rank 28th in rate of moving the chains. It’s still hard to take the Steelers as just 3 point underdogs, but they’re the side I’m taking, especially with the Chiefs going into a London game next week. Teams are just 6-18 ATS before a London game all-time.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 16

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +3

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-2)

The Vikings hard a weird start to their season, losing 20-3 week 1 in San Francisco in a really late game, giving the lowly 49ers their only win of the season. However, a team seen as a sneaky playoff contender before the season started, Minnesota has lived up to expectations over the past few weeks, beating Detroit and San Diego by double digits and then only losing by a field goal in Denver. They do rank just 20th in rate of moving the chains differential through their first 4 games, but they’re still being dragged down by what should prove to be a very fluky week 1 game. They’re a solid team that will compete for a playoff spot.

Despite that, they’re just 4 point favorites here over a Kansas City team that ranks 25th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite losing Jamaal Charles for the season to a torn ACL last week. Charles was such a big part of the offense, putting up big yardage on the ground and through the air and really being the guy they ran the offense through, because their passing game is still limited. Chancandrick West and Knile Davis aren’t the type of guys who can do that and represent a huge dropoff in talent behind Charles.

They should struggle to run the ball for the rest of the season, especially with a weak offensive line. They’ll have to pass move often, which is not what they want to do. They have no passing game weapons behind wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and tight end Travis Kelce, Alex Smith is a limited quarterback, and the offensive line isn’t giving Smith much time. The Chiefs are 1-4, getting worse, and won’t be much of a threat to anyone going forward. They shouldn’t be only be 4 point road underdogs in Minnesota, especially with Minnesota having an easy game in Detroit next week, though I can’t quite bring myself to put money on this because Minnesota is a heavy public lean and I don’t have a real trend supporting the Vikings.

Update: This line has dropped to 3.5. I’ll bite.

Minnesota Vikings 21 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bears, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (1-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)

The Chiefs are only 1-3, but it’s hard to blame them considering their last 3 games have all come against undefeated teams (Denver, Green Bay, and Kansas City) and they have been pretty competitive in all 3 games. The only easy game they’ve had this year was in Houston, where they won by a touchdown. That doesn’t sound terribly impressive, but that game wasn’t close until garbage time and getting a convincing win on the road, no matter who the opponent is, is still an accomplishment.

This week they get a pretty easy opponent again, the Chicago Bears, who rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential. That’s not too much worse than the Chiefs, who rank 23rd, but the Chiefs’ schedule has been a big factor in that. Besides, the Bears are incredibly banged up. They got Jay Cutler back from injury last week and he was a massive upgrade over the incompetent Jimmy Clausen, a big factor in them getting their first win of the season at home against the Raiders, but wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, wide receiver Eddie Royal, offensive tackle Jermon Bushrod, safety Antrel Rolle, and possibly outside linebacker Pernell McPhee (arguably their best player on either side of the ball) are all expected to miss this one. Kansas City, meanwhile, is basically at 100%, especially with top cornerback Sean Smith in his 2nd game back, after missing the start of the season with a suspension.

Despite that, this line isn’t that high at 9. In fact, the line has shifted from 12 to 9 from last week to this week and the public is still on Chicago, a rare instance of the public being on an underdog. I love fading huge week-to-week line movements because they’re typically an overreaction to a single week’s action, in this case, a Kansas City loss on the road against a good Cincinnati team and a last second Chicago home win over the mediocre Raiders. I also love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run. In this case, I’ll happily fade the line movement and the public and take the Chiefs.

The Bears are also in a bad spot, with a trip to Detroit, where they are expected to be 6 point underdogs, on deck. Teams are 39-59 ATS since 2012 as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs, as it’s tough for an inferior team to concentrate with another tough game on deck. The Chiefs do also have a tough game next week, as they’re expected to be 3 point underdogs in Minnesota (though they don’t have the same kind of trend working against them), and Detroit, while better than their record, isn’t a great team by any stretch of the imagination so that line could move under 6. For that reason, I don’t think there’s enough here for me to feel confident putting money on Kansas City, but I do think they should be the right side and that they should win by a comfortable amount.

Kansas City Chiefs 26 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -9

Confidence: Low

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Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bengals, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-0)

The Chiefs are only 1-2, but they’ve had the misfortune of playing both the 3-0 Broncos and the 3-0 Packers. They could have easily beaten the Broncos and, while they lost in Green Bay last week, doing so is not that uncommon. The schedule doesn’t get much easier for the Chiefs as they have to go to Cincinnati this week and play another 3-0 team, the Bengals. However, I like the Chiefs’ chances much better this week than I did last week, for a number of reasons. The most obvious reason is that, while the Bengals have exceeded expectations through 3 games, going into Cincinnati is not nearly as hard as going into Green Bay and facing Aaron Rodgers. However, the Chiefs are also in a great spot.

While the Chiefs have one of their easiest, if not their easiest game of the season next week, hosting the Bears, against whom they are listed as 12 point favorites in the early line, the Bengals have one of their hardest and their most important games, as they host the Seattle Seahawks. Given that the Bengals are expected to be home underdogs next week, this is a great spot for the Chiefs. Road underdogs are 67-33 ATS before being home favorites when their opponent will next be home underdogs since 1989, including 20-7 ATS before being favorites of 6 or more points.

It also really helps the Chiefs that they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 117-83 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 96-57 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 199-203 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.35 points per game, as opposed to 287-397 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.98 points per game.

This is my Pick of the Week, but I do have to admit that I’m usually more confident in my Pick of the Weeks. There just wasn’t an obvious line this week. The Chiefs are mere 4.5 point underdogs here. That’s sort of good news because it suggests that the odds makers might be trying to keep the line low to avoid big bets from sharps (and the public is barely on Cincinnati even still), but it doesn’t give me quite as much breathing room as I was expecting. Still it’s such a good spot for Kansas City and I think the effect of Kansas City having cornerback Sean Smith back from suspension and Cincinnati not having safety George Iloka with injury can’t be overlooked. I’m pretty confident I have the right side here.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23

Pick Against the Spread: Kansas City +4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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