Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (11-1) at New York Giants (8-4)

The Giants gave the Cowboys their only win of the season way back in week 1, but the Cowboys have very impressively ripped off 11 straight wins since then. They enter this game 2nd in first down rate differential, while the Giants enter 8th, and they travel as well as any team in the league. Since 2010, they are 31-22 ATS on the road, as opposed to 19-35 ATS at home. Over that time period, they’ve been outscored opponents by 0.06 points per game on the road and outscored opponents by an average of 1.20 points per game at home, meaning home field advantage hasn’t even been worth a point for them in recent years. The Cowboys also enter this game much healthier than the Giants, who have a key absence on both sides of the ball with injury, talented left guard Justin Pugh and talented defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul. This line is 4 and about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, so I’m taking the Giants, but this is a no confidence pick. A 3 or 4 point Dallas win seems like the most likely outcome.

Dallas Cowboys 23 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +4

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (10-1) at Minnesota Vikings (6-5)

This line has shifted from 2 in favor of the visiting Cowboys on the early line last week to 4 now this week. Ordinarily, big week-to-week shifts like that are the result of overreactions to a single week of play and create line value, but I think this line is right about where it should be. The Cowboys enter this game 3rd in first down rate differential, while the Vikings enter in 20th and likely missing their head coach with emergency eye surgery and talented center Joe Berger with a concussion.

The Cowboys also travel as well as any team in the league. Since 2010, they are 31-21 ATS on the road, as opposed to 19-35 ATS at home. Over that time period, they’ve been outscored opponents by 0.02 points per game on the road and outscored opponents by an average of 1.20 points per game at home, meaning home field advantage hasn’t even been worth a point for them in recent years. That makes sense, as the Cowboys have fans throughout the country and get great support on the road.

That being said, I’m taking the Vikings here for a no confidence play because they’re in a good spot. While the Cowboys have arguably their toughest and biggest game of the season next week, a road game in New York against the Giants team that gave them their only loss of the season way back in week 1, the Vikings instead go to Jacksonville, a much easier game. This could be a bit of a trap game for the Cowboys as a result. Home underdogs like the Vikings are 47-27 ATS since 2008 before being road favorites, as the Vikings are expected to be next week. This pick is only for pick ‘em purposes though, as I wouldn’t recommend betting on either side.

Dallas Cowboys 20 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +4

Confidence: None

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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (6-3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (9-1)

I mentioned this in my Minnesota/Detroit pick as well. Divisional road underdogs are 60-33 ATS since 2002 in same season divisional revenge games against an opponent that previously beat them as home favorites. Division rivals know each other well, so it makes sense that comparable teams tend to split the season series, even if the road team pulls the upset in the first game. The Cowboys and Redskins are not as comparable as Detroit and Minnesota are, as the Cowboys are an obviously better team, but that trend is still somewhat relevant here, especially since the Cowboys haven’t had much homefield advantage in recent years.

The Cowboys are 31-21 ATS on the road since 2010, which is impressive, but just 19-34 ATS at home over the same time period, including 11-26 ATS as home favorites. Over that time period, they’ve been outscored opponents by 0.02 points per game on the road and outscored opponents by an average of 1.13 points per game at home, meaning home field advantage hasn’t even been worth a point for them in recent years. That makes sense, as the Cowboys have fans throughout the country and get great support on the road.

They’re 4-1 ATS at home this year, but that’s because they’ve been underrated all season. Besides, their covers against Baltimore and Philadelphia could have gone either way, as both games were closer than the final score suggested. The Cowboys aren’t underrated anymore and might actually be a little bit overrated here, as much of their success can be attributed to how much support they get from road crowds. The Redskins are a quality opponent that the Cowboys only beat by 3 in Washington earlier this year. They might not win by much more here this week. There’s not enough here for me to put any money on it, but I like the points in what should be a close divisional matchup.

Dallas Cowboys 31 Washington Redskins 27

Pick against the spread: Washington +6.5

Confidence: Low

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Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (5-4) at Dallas Cowboys (8-1)

The Cowboys pulled off a huge upset victory in Pittsburgh last week to improve to 8-1, the only team in the entire NFL with only one loss. Now they are 7.5 point favorites here at home over the Ravens and the early line has them as 6.5 point home favorites for the Redskins next week. Big favorites tend to cover before being big favorites again because they have no upcoming distractions and can take care of business against an inferior opponent. Favorites of 6 or more are 89-50 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6 or more again. However, it hurts the Cowboys that next week’s game is on Thursday Night, their annual Thanksgiving home game. Favorites are 50-82 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008.

With that in mind, I’m actually going to take the Ravens this week. Not only do the Cowboys have a game upcoming in 4 days, this line is a little bit too high when you consider the Cowboys haven’t had much homefield advantage in recent years. The Cowboys are 31-21 ATS on the road since 2010, which is impressive, but just 18-34 ATS at home over the same time period, including 10-26 ATS as home favorites. Over that time period, they’ve been outscored opponents by 0.02 points per game on the road and outscored opponents by an average of 0.96 points per game at home, meaning home field advantage hasn’t even been worth a half point for them in recent years.

That makes sense, as the Cowboys have fans throughout the country and get great support on the road. They’re 3-1 ATS at home this year, but that’s because they’ve been underrated all season. That’s no longer the case, as evidenced by this line. They could have easily lost to the Eagles, while their other 2 wins came against the Bears and Bengals (both by 14). The Ravens are a set up from those 2 teams and should be able to keep it close here. There’s not quite enough here for me to put money on the Ravens, but they’re the pick.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +7.5

Confidence: Low

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Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (7-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4)

The Cowboys enter this game with the best record in the NFC at 7-1 and rank 2nd in the NFL in first down rate differential. They’ve had a relatively easy schedule thus far, as they rank dead last in strength of schedule, in terms of total opponents’ records, but the Steelers are not nearly as tough of an opponent as this line suggests. This line is at 3 in favor of the home team Pittsburgh Steelers, suggesting these two teams are essentially even, which I disagree with. The Steelers enter this game just 22nd in first down rate differential.

Part of that has been injuries/suspensions, as Pro-Bowl guys like quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, running back Le’Veon Bell, defensive end Cameron Heyward have all missed time, but the Steelers also just aren’t as good as they’ve been in recent years. Outside of Bell and Antonio Brown, they’re hurting for skill position talent without Martavis Bryant and Heath Miller, while their defense is subpar even when Heyward is healthy. Even with a relatively easy schedule thus far, the Steelers are far from the toughest game the Cowboys have had thus far, as they’ve played the likes of the Giants, Redskins, Packers, Eagles, and Bengals, all of whom are comparable to or better than the Steelers. The Cowboys are 4-1 in those 5 games.

Not only are the Cowboys significantly better, they’re also a great road team, as a result of their national fanbase. Since 2010, they’ve outscored opponents by 0.96 points per game at home and been outscored by 0.08 points per game on the road, meaning their homefield advantage hasn’t even been worth a point over that time period. They are also 21-12 ATS as road underdogs over that time period. The Steelers are in a good spot with an easy trip to Cleveland on deck and teams are 48-34 ATS since 2008 before being road favorites of 4.5 or more, which the Steelers definitely will be, so this isn’t a huge play, but there’s enough here for me to be confident in the Cowboys at 3 in Pittsburgh.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3

Confidence: Medium

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Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (6-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-8)

Typically, the Browns would be in a tough spot here, as they have to turn around after this tough home game against the 6-1 Cowboys and go to Baltimore on a short week, a tough divisional clash in which they’re projected to be 9.5 point underdogs on the early line. Underdogs of 6 or more are just 132-170 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs of 6 or more again. However, teams that are 0-8 or worse are actually 10-5 ATS in that spot over that time period. The Browns enter this game as the NFL’s only winless team at 0-8. Believe it or not, betting on winless teams this late in the season has actually been a winning bet in the past, as teams that are 0-8 or worse are 34-16 ATS since 1989.

That being said, I’m actually going with the Cowboys this week, just because of how good of a road team they are historically, thanks to their national fanbase. Since 2010, they’ve outscored opponents by 0.96 points per game at home and been outscored by 0.57 points per game on the road, meaning their homefield advantage hasn’t even been worth a point over that time period. They are also 29-21 ATS on the road over that time period. This line is pretty high at 7.5, so I couldn’t be confident in them, but the Cowboys are the pick in pick ‘em leagues.

Dallas Cowboys 28 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -7.5

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2016 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) at Dallas Cowboys (5-1)

The Cowboys are coming off of a huge upset win in Green Bay 2 weeks ago and are healthy coming off their bye, with top wide receiver Dez Bryant and top cornerback Orlando Scandrick both returning from extended absences. Now back at home, they’re favored by 4.5 points against a good Philadelphia team. Considering about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer and considering the Cowboys’ struggles covering at home in recent years, this line seems a little too high. The Cowboys are 29-21 ATS on the road since 2010, which is impressive, but just 17-34 ATS at home over the same time period, including 9-26 ATS as home favorites and 3-10 ATS as divisional home favorites. Over that time period, they’ve been outscored by an average of 0.57 points per game on the road and outscored opponents by an average of 0.87 points per game at home, meaning home field advantage hasn’t even been worth a full point for them in recent years. That makes sense, as the Cowboys have fans throughout the country and get great support on the road.

That being said, it’s hard to be too confident in the Eagles, who have struggled offensively since losing right tackle Lane Johnson to suspension and who will be without top run stuffer Bennie Logan. The Eagles enter this game 11th in first down percentage differential, while the Cowboys are in 6th in that metric. The Cowboys are also in a way better spot, with a trip to Cleveland on deck. The early line has them as 7+ road favorites against the Browns and teams are 32-17 ATS since 2012 before being 7+ road favorites. While the Cowboys don’t have any upcoming distractions, the Eagles have to turn around and play another tough divisional game against the Giants next week. The Eagles are also coming off of a huge home upset victory against the Vikings and teams are 56-77 ATS off of home upset victories since 2012. I’m taking Philadelphia, but I couldn’t be confident in them unless we were getting 6 points.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Philadelphia Eagles 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +4.5

Confidence: Low

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Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Green Bay Packers (3-1)

The Cowboys pulled an impressive home upset victory over the Cincinnati Bengals last week, winning 28-14. Ordinarily, teams struggle after a home upset victory, as teams are 53-77 ATS in that spot since 2012. One of the reasons for that is home upset wins tend to move future lines significantly and that’s the case in this game, as the Cowboys went from 6.5 point underdogs on the early line last week to now 4.5 point underdogs. Typically, I like to bet against significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. However, I don’t think this line is unreasonable at 4.5 at all, as the Cowboys have been one of the best teams in the league thus far this season and showed it with a statement win over a capable Cincinnati team last week.

The Cowboys are 4-1, legitimately a few plays away from being 5-0 (their only loss came by 1 week 1), and rank 9th in first down percentage differential. Green Bay, who ranks 6th in that metric, is the toughest team the Cowboys have faced thus far, but close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, so I like their chances of keeping it close and covering this 4.5 point spread. Worst case scenario, if the Cowboys are down 10 or 11 late, I like their chances of pulling off a backdoor cover.

The Packers are also in a tough spot, as they have to turn around and play again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 50-75 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday night game. The Packers used to have a big advantage in Lambeau Field, going 36-23 ATS at home from 2008-2014, but they are just 4-5-1 ATS at home in the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, the Cowboys typically travel well, thanks to a national fanbase. Since 2010, they’ve outscored opponents by 0.87 points per game at home and been outscored by 0.72 points per game on the road, meaning their homefield advantage hasn’t even been worth a point over that time period. They’re also 20-12 ATS as road underdogs over that time period. I’d put money on the Cowboys at 4.5, but I’d hold off at 4. The Cowboys are the pick though.

Green Bay Packers 27 Dallas Cowboys 24

Pick against the spread: Dallas +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1)

The Cowboys have gone 3-1 to start the season, but have played a pretty easy schedule so far. They’ve beaten up on the Bears and 49ers in the past two weeks, two of the worst teams in the league, and their toughest games came against divisional rivals Washington and New York, neither of whom have a great team this year. There’s a very good argument to be made that the Bengals are the toughest team the Cowboys have faced this year. The Cowboys are at home, but the Cowboys have fans all over the country, so they really haven’t had much homefield in advantage in recent years, going 16-34 ATS at home since 2010, as opposed to 29-21 ATS on the road. Over that time period, they’ve outscored opponents by 0.61 points per game at home and been outscored by 0.72 points per game on the road, meaning their homefield advantage hasn’t even been worth a point over that time period.

The Cowboys are 7-5 ATS as home underdogs over that time period, but this line isn’t at the full field goal yet, so basically all the Bengals would have to do is cover straight up. The Cowboys do get defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence back from a 4-game suspension and left tackle Tyron Smith back from a 2-game absence with back problems, but they’ll likely be without top wide receiver Dez Bryant for the second straight game and top cornerback Orlando Scandrick for the third straight game, after neither player practiced at all this week.

The Bengals are still the better team and have a good chance to win straight up in a stadium in which the Cowboys haven’t had a ton of success. Neither of these teams are in a great spot, as the Bengals head to New England next week, while the Cowboys to go Green Bay, two very tough and important upcoming games for these two teams. For that reason, I don’t have a great lean on this game at all, but I’m going to take the visiting Bengals unless the line does get up to a field goal. It’s a no confidence pick, but this game has a good chance to be a field goal game.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -2

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

The Cowboys are pretty banged up coming into this one. Not only is top receiver Dez Bryant likely out in this one, they’re also expected to be without left tackle Tyron Smith and left guard La’El Collins. They are expected to get cornerback top Orlando Scandrick back from a 1 week absence on defense, but they remain without 3 projected defensive starters, DeMarcus Lawrence, Randy Gregory, and Rolando McClain with suspension. Lawrence will return next week, but Gregory and McClain are serving long-term suspensions and their future with the team is in doubt.

Fortunately, they get a very easy opponent this week. The 49ers crushed a weak Rams team week 1, but have been dealt equally big losses in the past two weeks by both the Panthers and the Seahawks. Now they’re without top cornerback Jimmie Ward. The 49ers might not be the worst team in the league (despite two close wins, the Rams actually remain in dead last in rate of moving the chains differential), but they’re up there and the Cowboys only need to win by a field goal or more here to cover as 2.5 point favorites. The 49ers are also in a tough spot because they have to turn around and play Arizona on Thursday Night next week. Teams are 51-93 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4+, which the 49ers definitely will be next week.

This game is in San Francisco, but the Cowboys’ fanbase tends to travel well so going on the road hasn’t been much of a problem for them in recent years. Since 2010, they’ve outscored opponents by 0.61 points per game at home and been outscored by 0.72 points per game on the road, meaning their homefield advantage hasn’t even been worth a point over that time period. Last week was their first road win since week 1 of 2015, but they won on the road in their last road game week 2 against Washington. I like their chances to go to 2-0 on the road here and I have no problem putting money on Dallas as long as this line stays on the right side of the field goal.

Dallas Cowboys 24 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: Dallas -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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