Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Eagles, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Cornerback

Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher both graded out below average this season as the Eagles’ starting cornerbacks. Williams graded out 49th out of 108 eligible, while Fletcher graded out 92nd. Fletcher is a free agent and won’t be back as a starter, while Williams could be a cap casualty, owed a non-guaranteed 6.5 million in 2015. He’s not terrible, but they could just find that too rich for a cornerback of his caliber. That would leave them with Brandon Boykin and Nolan Carroll. Carroll, their 4th cornerback last season, has some starting experience and Boykin is a fantastic slot cornerback, but they’d need another cornerback in that situation. Even if Williams is brought back, they still should add another cornerback to the mix at some point.

Wide Receiver

Jeremy Maclin was fantastic last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked wide receiver. Riley Cooper was the opposite, grading out dead last in the first year of a 5-year, 22.5 million dollar deal he signed the previous off-season. Even if Maclin is re-signed, they’ll need help at the position. They can’t really cut Riley Cooper because doing so would cost them on the cap, but they need competition for him as the 3rd receiver behind Maclin and Jordan Matthews, a 2014 2nd round pick who showed a lot of promise as a rookie. If Maclin isn’t re-signed, this becomes a much bigger issue.

Quarterback

The Eagles thought they had their quarterback of the future when Nick Foles completed 64.0% of his passes for an average of 9.12 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in 2013 in his first year as a starter, but those numbers slipped to 59.8% completion, 6.96 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in 2014. Much of Foles’ strong production in 2013 was as a result of the scheme, as he only graded out 17th at his position on Pro Football Focus. As you can imagine, that slipped to 25th out of 39 eligible in 2014, barely better than backup Mark Sanchez (27th), who made 8 starts in Foles’ absence. The fact that their offense wasn’t significantly worse with Sanchez under center is a concern. Sanchez is a free agent this off-season. He’s not a long-term solution either, but the Eagles could bring him back as competition for Foles because he might be the best option they have, given the free agency market and where they’re picking in the draft. Even if it’s not Sanchez, I expect them to bring in some competition for Foles this off-season.

Middle Linebacker

DeMeco Ryans was limited to 8 games by injury this season and the Eagles really struggled at middle linebacker in his absence as Casey Matthews, Emmanuel Acho, and Marcus Smith (their 1st round pick and a converted outside linebacker) all graded out below average in his absence. Smith is moving back to outside linebacker in 2015 and neither of the other two is a long term option. If the Eagles cut Ryans this off-season, which they easily could, as he’s owed a non-guaranteed 6.9 million in his age 31 season in 2015, they’ll need a long-term solution inside next to Mychal Kendricks.

Guard

Evan Mathis is still fantastic at left guard, but the Eagles have an issue at right guard. Todd Herremans was limited to 585 snaps and 8 starts by injuries and he was horrible, grading out 57th out of 78 eligible guards, despite limited playing time. He’s expected to be a cap casualty going into his age 33 season and Andrew Gardner wasn’t really that impressive in his absence. Competition for Gardner is needed.

Safety

Malcolm Jenkins and Nate Allen both played well at safety for the Eagles last season, but Allen is a free agent this off-season and, if he’s not re-signed, the Eagles will need to find a replacement because they don’t really have an internal one.

Key Free Agents

WR Jeremy Maclin

Jeremy Maclin missed all of 2013 with injury and was terrible in 2012, grading out 101st out of 105 eligible, but he bet on himself with a 1-year, 5.5 million dollar deal in free agency last year and it paid off in a big way. Maclin had career highs across the board in Chip Kelly’s offense, despite quarterback problems, catching 85 passes for 1318 yards and 10 touchdowns, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked wide receiver. He’s still a bit of a one year wonder in terms of being a top level receiver so the franchise tag could be a nice middle ground for the Eagles between letting him leave and giving him a huge extension, but, either way, Maclin will get a good amount of money this off-season.

OLB Brandon Graham

Graham was a first round pick by the Eagles in 2010, but he was limited to 491 snaps in his first 2 seasons combined by injuries. However, he played well when on the field in those 2 seasons and he had somewhat of a breakout year in 2012. He didn’t get a ton of playing time (435 snaps), which is why it’s hard to call it a true breakout year, but he still graded out 2nd among 4-3 defensive ends that season, despite the limited playing time. The Eagles moved to a 3-4 in 2013, which Graham wasn’t seen as a good fit for, so he only saw 331 snaps, but he still graded out 15th at his position, making it two straight years where no one played fewer snaps than him and graded out better at his position. In 2014, he was still the 3rd outside linebacker, but he played ahead of 1st round pick Marcus Smith all year, set a career high in snaps played with 524 snaps and graded out 3rd among 3-4 outside linebackers. For the third straight year, no one graded out better at his position on fewer snaps. Now he hits free agency with scheme versatility on his resume and the potential to become one of the best edge rushers in the NFL if he’s finally given regular playing time. He’s the type of player who you could sign to a 5-year, 30 million dollar deal and watch it become a bargain over the next couple of years.

S Nate Allen

Nate Allen has been a starter with the Eagles for 5 seasons since they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2010. Over that period of time, he’s played 74 of a possible 80 games, including 70 starts, but he has been up and down, grading out below average in 3 of 5 seasons and never having back-to-back above average seasons. His worst year came in 2012, when he graded out 84th out of 88 eligible safeties. However, he graded out above average last season (28th), his terrible 2012 is more than 2 years ago, and he’s an experienced starter, so he should get solid starter’s money on the open market this off-season, if the Eagles are unable to re-sign him prior to that. A recent arrest complicates matters a bit.

CB Bradley Fletcher

Bradley Fletcher started all 16 games at cornerback last season for the Eagles, but he was horrible, grading out 92nd out of 108 eligible cornerbacks. Fletcher was a 3rd round pick of the Rams’ in 2009, but last season was the first season in his career that he made all 16 starts and, though he’s had decent success as a reserve in his career, he’s not a starting caliber cornerback. He’s a depth cornerback at best and not a very reliable one, as he’s missed 25 games in 6 seasons in the NFL.

QB Mark Sanchez

Everyone was quick to say that Mark Sanchez had turned it around in Philadelphia last year working with Chip Kelly instead of Rex Ryan, but Sanchez was still a backup caliber quarterback. The Eagles moved the chains at a 72.34% rate with Nick Foles and a 72.49% rate with Mark Sanchez, even though Sanchez had a much stronger offensive line and running game in front of him. The fact that Sanchez was worse than Foles last season and Foles was having a bad year shows that, overall, he really didn’t turn it around. He completed 64.1% of his passes for an average of 7.83 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, mediocre numbers in today’s NFL. Out of the league in 2013 because of injury, Sanchez has ranked 27th (2014), 37th (2012), 36th (2011), 27th (2010), and 39th (2009) on Pro Football Focus since being drafted in 2009. He’s somehow made 76 starts over that period of time, but any team he makes starts for next season is probably not making the playoffs. He’ll get a decent amount of money on a weak quarterback market.

Cap Casualty Candidates

MLB DeMeco Ryans

There are five things I look at to determine whether or not a player will become a cap casualty and DeMeco Ryans meets four of them. He’s aging, expensive, declining, and coming off of a significant injury. The only thing is the Eagles won’t be able to find a replacement that easily, but I still expect them to let him go. He missed 8 games with a torn Achilles last season, is going into his age 31 season, is owed 6.9 million non-guaranteed (all of which they can save on the cap by letting him go), and, in his last full season as a starter in 2013, he was horrible, grading out 53rd out of 55 eligible middle linebackers. While it will be hard to find a starting caliber middle linebacker to replace him inside next to Mychal Kendricks, Ryans isn’t a starting caliber middle linebacker either and he’s definitely not worth his salary.

TE James Casey

When the Eagles signed James Casey to a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, they envisioned the fullback/tight end as a jack of all traits matchup nightmare. That vision hasn’t become a reality though as he’s played just 330 snaps on offense in his first 2 seasons in Philadelphia. The Eagles don’t need to be paying him 4 million dollars non-guaranteed in 2015 to be a de facto #3 tight end behind Brent Celek and Zach Ertz. The Eagles would save that full amount on the cap by letting him go.

G Todd Herremans

Todd Herremans was limited to 8 games by injuries in 2014 (7 at right guard, 1 at right tackle) and he graded out Pro Football Focus’ 57th ranked guard out of 78 eligible. He’s now going into his age 33 season, owed a non-guaranteed 4 million. He was a solid starter in 2013 and he has good versatility, but the Eagles may opt to move on from the aging veteran in favor of finding a younger option at right guard. The Eagles would immediately save 2.8 million on the cap by letting him go.

OLB Trent Cole

There’s been talk of the Eagles releasing Trent Cole this off-season since Chip Kelly showed up. Cole was never seen as a great fit for the Eagles’ 3-4, but his contract didn’t let them get any sort of real cap relief by cutting or trading him in either of the last 2 off-seasons so the rumored plan has always been to cut him this off-season. Doing so would save them 10.025 million in cash and 8.425 million immediately on the cap and Cole is going into his age 33 season. Cole has been solid in 2013 and 2014 in the 3-4, grading out 7th in 2013 and 19th in 2014, but the Eagles already have Connor Barwin and Marcus Smith and might prefer to cut Cole to free up cap space to re-sign Brandon Graham.

CB Cary Williams

Cary Williams has made all 32 starts for the Eagles at cornerback over the last 2 seasons, but he’s graded out below average in each of them. Even though he wasn’t that bad in 2014 (49th out of 108 eligible), the Eagles might cut him anyway. His salary for 2015 is 6.5 million non-guaranteed and they can save that entire amount on the cap by letting him go. There are better cornerbacks to be had for that price.

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Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Eagles, Giants, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) at New York Giants (6-9)

This line has flipped from Philadelphia being favored by 3 to New York being favored by 3 over the course of the past week, a huge line movement. I love fading huge line movements whenever it makes sense and it does here. Would this line have moved 6 points if Cody Parkey, who had missed 2 field goals all year coming in, didn’t miss 2 makeable field goals last week in Washington and the Eagles had won? Probably not.

The Eagles moved the chains at a 82.50% rate last week, as opposed to 77.42% for Washington, and could have won easily if not for those 2 missed field goals and a couple of 50/50 balls to DeSean Jackson going the Eagles way. Teams tend to cover off of huge upset losses anyway, going 88-61 ATS since 1989 off of a los as 6+ point road favorites. That’s largely because those upsets are often fluky, yet still precede huge line movements, as is the case here.

After last week’s 30 first down performance, the Eagles now move the chains at a 72.29% rate on the season, as opposed to 71.46% for their opponents, a differential of 0.83% that ranks 14th in the NFL. They now have a very similar rate of moving the chains in games started by Nick Foles (72.34%), as compared to games started by Mark Sanchez (72.22%), though Sanchez has faced an easier schedule and had a healthier offensive line in front of him.

The Eagles weren’t the type of team that deserved to be 8 point favorites in Washington last week, nor were they the type of team that deserved to be 3 point favorites in New York this week, but this line has shifted too much the other way. The Giants rank 17th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 72.60% rate, as opposed to 72.65% for their opponents, a differential of -0.05%. This line suggests these two teams are even and that not quite the case, even before you get in to the fact that the Giants have historically not had the same type of homefield advantage that the average team has, at least not in the last decade in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era.

Since 2004, the Giants are 53-42 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.09 points per game, as opposed to 51-40 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.74 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home (about 3 points), but the line has never really adapted to compensate. This isn’t unique to the Giants, as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average recently. At home, the NFC East is 76-86 since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.89 points per game and going 62-97 ATS. On the road, they are 79-82, getting outscored by an average of 1.91 points per game and going 85-74 ATS. As you can imagine, road teams in NFC East divisional games tend to do well, going 26-15 ATS over that time period as divisional road underdogs. The Eagles should be the right side here.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 New York Giants 20 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3

Confidence: Medium

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Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Commanders, Eagles, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at Washington Redskins (3-11)

This is one of two games this week where the line is really off, according to rate of moving the chains differential (the other one is Chicago/Detroit). The Redskins haven’t been quite as bad as their record this season, moving the chains at a 70.28% rate, as opposed to 72.20% for their opponents, a differential of -1.92% that ranks 24th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Eagles haven’t been as good as their record, moving the chains at a 71.43% rate, as opposed to 71.06% for their opponents, a differential of 0.36% that ranks 13th in the NFL.

Their offense has been even worse over the past few games with Mark Sanchez under center in place of an injured Nick Foles, as they’ve moved the chains at a 70.10% rate over the past 6 games, despite 5 of those 6 games coming against opponents who rank in the bottom-8 in rate of moving the chains differential (Tennessee 28th, Green Bay 30th, Carolina 25th, Dallas twice 27th). Things have been especially bad over the past 2 games, resulting in home losses to Seattle and Dallas. It’s really hard to trust Mark Sanchez as a massive road favorite, especially with the public all over Philadelphia. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it does here.

However, unlike Chicago/Detroit, I’m not confident enough to put money on this one. There’s a lot of stuff working against the Redskins as well, including an injury to top defensive player Jason Hatcher. On top of that, the Eagles have a much easier game than the Redskins do next week as they head to New York to take on the Giants, while the Redskins have to host the Cowboys. Teams are 93-67 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites (the early line is Philadelphia -3). On the other side of the coin, Teams are 64-98 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ home underdogs, including 34-69 ATS before being 4+ home underdogs, and 12-25 ATS before being 7+ home underdogs (the early line is Dallas –8). The Redskins should be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: Washington +8.5

Confidence: Low

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Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Eagles, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (9-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-4)

The Eagles won in Dallas a few weeks ago, but that doesn’t mean these two teams aren’t even. The Eagles rank 11th, moving the chains at 71.46% rate, as opposed to 70.14% for their opponents, a differential of 1.32%. The Cowboys, very similarly, rank 14th, moving the chains at a 76.11% rate, as opposed to 74.94% for their opponents, a differential of 1.17%. The Eagles’ offense has been especially bad with Mark Sanchez under center, as they’ve moved the chains at a 69.94% rate over the past 5 weeks despite playing 4 of the 7 worst defenses in the league in terms of rate of moving the chains differential (Green Bay, Carolina, Tennessee, Dallas). The reason the Cowboys lost on Thanksgiving is because they generally struggle at home, going 7-23 ATS as home favorites since 2010. The Eagles, meanwhile, are 14-27 ATS at home over that same time period.

This isn’t unique to the Cowboys and Eagles, as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average recently. At home, the NFC East is 73-85 since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of0.67 points per game and going 59-96 ATS. On the road, they are 77-80, getting outscored by an average of 2.00 points per game and going 83-72 ATS. As you can imagine, road teams in NFC East divisional games tend to do well, going 25-14 ATS over that time period as divisional road underdogs.

The Eagles’ previous win in Dallas actually puts them in a bad spot this week, as divisional home favorites are 25-49 ATS since 2002 against a divisional opponent that they previously beat as road underdogs during that same regular season. It’s a weird trend and it’s a little complicated, but it makes sense when you think about it. In divisional matchups where the homefield advantage decides who is the favorite, generally those two teams are essentially even. Divisional opponents that are essentially even generally split the season series. That seems to happen even if the road team pulls the upset in the first matchup, as the road underdog wins about half the time (39-38) in the rematch and covers at that aforementioned 2/3rds rate.

I like the Cowboys’ chances of getting revenge here and even if they don’t do so by winning, this line is at 3.5 so there’s some wiggle room. Getting that extra half point is very important considering these two teams are essentially even and it’s the direct result of the Eagles’ win in Dallas two weeks ago, which we established is very explainable. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Eagles don’t have any distractions on the horizon with a trip to Washington on deck. Teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites, and 23-8 ATS before being 7+ road favorites (the early line is Philadelphia -8.5). I’m still taking the Cowboys and the 3 and a half.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Philadelphia Eagles 23 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Eagles, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (8-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-3)

The Seahawks are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 46-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 44-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.80 points per game at home. This is opposed to a 25-42 record away from home (29-37-1 ATS), getting outscored by 3.46 points per game. This season, they are 3-3 on the road, as opposed to 5-1 at home. On the road, they’ve moved the chains at a 75.43% rate, as opposed to 74.85% for their opponents, a differential of 0.58%. They’re even worse on the road as underdogs, going 16-25 ATS as road underdogs since 2007.

The Eagles are only favored by a point here, but they’re still favored and they should actually be favored by a little bit more. They rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 72.41% rate, as opposed to 69.57% for their opponents, a differential of 2.84%. The Seahawks, meanwhile, rank 8th, moving them at a 75.14% rate, as opposed to 71.55% for their opponents, a differential of 3.58%. And, as I mentioned, they’ve been very average on the road this season.

The Eagles’ offense hasn’t been much worse since Nick Foles went down and Mark Sanchez took over as they’ve moved the chains at a 72.54% rate over their past 4 games with Sanchez as the starter, though they’ve faced four bad defenses, Carolina (29th), Green Bay (30th), Tennessee (31st), and Dallas (26th). It’s not necessarily that Sanchez has been as good as Foles, but their offensive line has simultaneously gotten significantly healthier and LeSean McCoy has gotten going on the ground. Their defense is the reason they’re way they are this season as they rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains allowed, but their offense has remained serviceable with Sanchez under center. This line should be a closer to 3. In spite of that, the public is on the underdog here.

The Seahawks are in their 2nd straight road game, which should help them. Teams are 46-27 as road underdogs off of a road win as underdogs since 2008. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 188-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game, as opposed to 266-382 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.35 points per game. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 6-6 ATS in their 2nd of two road games. Meanwhile, the Eagles are just 14-26 ATS at home since 2010, though they are 5-1 ATS this season. There’s a lot of conflicting stuff here and I can’t be confident in either side. I’m taking the Eagles gun to my head, but I wouldn’t put money on it.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -1

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Eagles, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3)

The Cowboys have been horrible as home favorites since 2010, going 7-22 ATS in that situation. This isn’t unique to them as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average recently. At home, the NFC East is 73-82 since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.05 points per game and going 59-93 ATS. On the road, they are 74-78, getting outscored by an average of 2.34 points per game and going 80-70 ATS. As you can imagine, road teams in NFC East divisional games tend to do well, going 24-14 ATS over that time period as divisional road underdogs.

I’m not that confident in Philadelphia though because they are the inferior team and we’re not really getting any line value with them. The Cowboys rank 12th, moving the chains at a 76.22% rate, as opposed to 73.83% for their opponents, a differential of 2.39%. The Eagles are one spot behind them at 13th, moving the chains at a 71.83% rate, as opposed to 70.05% for their opponents, a differential of 1.78%. However, their offense hasn’t been good with Mark Sanchez under center, moving the chains at a 70.48% rate over the past 3 games. That’s about a percent and a half worse, despite the fact that they were facing Carolina (30th in rate of moving the chains allowed), Green Bay (29th), and Tennessee (31st). That’s about as easy of a schedule as you can get for an offense.

That’s also despite having Chip Kelly at head coach and despite the offensive line finally getting healthy. Even though Nick Foles wasn’t playing well himself, Sanchez has proven to be an inferior quarterback to Foles, which shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. They’ve put up some big point totals recently, scoring 45 against Carolina and 43 against Tennessee, but both were powered by 3 return touchdowns, were isn’t a sustainable way to put up points. The Eagles have a solid defense, but the Cowboys are the toughest defense that Sanchez has faced (that’s not saying much) and they could give him trouble. I’m still taking the Eagles here on the road, but I’m not confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Dallas Cowboys 23 Upset Pick +155

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3

Confidence: Low

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Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Eagles, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (2-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-3)

Both of these teams will be divisional road underdogs next week, Philadelphia in Dallas and Tennessee in Houston, so both of them are in bad spots. Teams are 86-106 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs, while non-divisional road underdogs are 51-80 ATS before being divisional road underdogs over that same time period. However, I’m taking the Titans here because I think the Eagles are in an even worse spot because their game with the Cowboys is in 4 days. Favorites are 36-58 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. I’m not confident at all though.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +11

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Eagles, Packers, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) at Green Bay Packers (6-3)

Both of these two teams had blowout victories on national television last week, as the Eagles blew out the Panthers on Monday Night Football by the final score of 45-21 and the Packers blew out the Bears on Sunday Night Football by the final score of 55-14. Which team has the best chance of continuing that into this week? Well, I think both teams have a good chance of continuing to play well this week. On Philadelphia’s side, teams tend to carry the momentum from a Monday Night Football win into the following week, going 33-14 ATS off of a MNF win by 21 or more since 2002. On Green Bay’s side, the Packers are once again at home, where they’ve been dominant recently. Aaron Rodgers is 24-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 30-4 straight up, with an absurd +510 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 15.00 points per game.

Both teams have no upcoming distractions as the Packers head to Minnesota and the Eagles host the Titans. Teams are 56-28 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008. Going off that, teams are 83-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more, 53-33 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 21-7 ATS before being road favorites of a touchdown or more (the early line is Green Bay -7.5). On the flip side, teams are 109-74 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional road underdogs, before being non-divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 98-79 ATS since 2008 before being double digit home favorites.

I’m going to take the Packers because we’re just getting so much line value with the Packers at home. The Packers move the chains at a 79.07% rate at home, as opposed to 68.70% for their opponents, a differential of 10.37%. The Eagles are in a great spot, but they rank just 9th, moving the chains at a 72.12% rate, as opposed to 69.00% for their opponents, on the season, a differential of 3.12% and the Packers are in a great spot too. As good as the final score looked against Carolina last week, the win was powered by an unsustainable turnover margin (+5) and two return touchdown. They moved the chains at a 70.00% rate, as opposed to 64.86% for the Panthers, a differential of 5.14%. I still think Mark Sanchez is a downgrade from Nick Foles. I’m not confident in the Packers though.

Green Bay Packers 30 Philadelphia Eagles 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -5.5

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Eagles, Panthers, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) at Carolina Panthers (3-5-1)

The Eagles have lost Nick Foles for an extended period of time, but he had not been playing well. He was completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 6.96 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions and he wasn’t even as good as his numbers, ranking 29th out of 36 eligible quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. Even last season, when he completed 64.0% of his passes for an average of 9.12 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, he was only Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked quarterback. The Eagles’ offense didn’t miss a beat last week when Foles got hurt and Mark Sanchez came in. It’s really starting to look like Foles is primarily just a product of the system and the Eagles’ supporting cast.

This isn’t to say that the Eagles won’t miss Foles and that Mark Sanchez will be exactly as good, but it could easily not be a big loss. At the same time, the Eagles have gotten Jason Kelce back from injury, will be getting Evan Mathis from injury, and have finally gotten LeSean McCoy going on the ground. The Eagles have only moved the chains at a 72.34% rate this season and I don’t expect that to get any worse over the next 6-8 weeks. If their defense can continue playing well, as they currently allow opponents to move the chains at a 69.58% rate, they shouldn’t be a worse team this week than they were a few weeks ago. They’re not as good as their 6-2 record, as they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they’re a lot better than the Panthers.

The Panthers rank 28th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73.19% rate, as opposed to 77.89% for their opponents, a differential of -4.10%. However, they’re in a much better spot here this week than the Eagles. While Philadelphia has to go to Green Bay next week, Carolina just hosts Atlanta. Teams are 73-104 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Going off that, teams are 60-99 ATS since 2010 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. Teams are also 45-78 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point underdogs.  As long as this line is a touchdown or more, I like the Panthers a good deal.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: Carolina +7

Confidence: Medium

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Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Eagles, Texans, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) at Houston Texans (4-4)

This line had a significant movement from last week, moving two points from an even line to 2 points in favor of Philadelphia. It’s not a huge deal considering it’s still less than a field goal, but it still doesn’t make any sense that it would move like that considering, Philadelphia lost last week in Arizona and Houston blew out the Titans. In spite of that, the public is all over from the Eagles, assuming that a team as good as the Eagles should have no problem beating Houston by a field goal, not realizing that Philadelphia isn’t as good as their record and that this line would be about 7.5 in Philadelphia. For comparison, Philadelphia was 6.5 against the Rams and didn’t even cover, despite getting a return touchdown.

The Eagles have been overly reliant on return touchdowns this season, scoring 6 times on defense and special teams, as opposed to 0 for their opponents. They can’t continually rely on that as a way to score. Their offense hasn’t played well, moving the chains at a 70.83% rate. Their defense has been solid, allowing opponents, to move the chains at a 70.04% rate, a differential of 0.79% that ranks 15th in the NFL. The Texans, meanwhile, rank 20th, moving the chains at a 70.71% rate, as opposed to 72.09% for their opponents, a differential of -1.38%. The Eagles shouldn’t be favored here, even with Jason Kelce returning from injury. I’m not confident or anything, but the Texans should be the right side.

Houston Texans 17 Philadelphia Eagles 16 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Houston +2

Confidence: None

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