Falcons

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Falcons, Saints, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)

I expect the 2013 Saints and Falcons to largely resemble the 2011 versions of their teams, when the Saints won 13 games and the Falcons 10 games. The Falcons’ 13 wins last year were done largely with smoke and mirrors and in a way that won’t be sustainable into 2013. 7 of those 13 wins came by a touchdown or less as they went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, something that tends to even out in the long run.

While they did outscore opponents by a total of 120 points on the season (not unimpressive, though it was surpassed by San Francisco, Seattle, New England, and Denver), they actually outgained opponents by 57 yards total on the season. For example, while they ranked 5th in the NFL allowing 18.7 points per game, they were 20th in the NFL in YPA allowed, 29th in YPC allowed, and 24th in total yards allowed. On a per play basis, they were actually outgained on the season, allowing 5.9 yards per play, as opposed to just 5.8 yards per play gained.

A lot of this had to do with their superb turnover differential as they had 13 more takeaways than giveaways. That tends to be unsustainable on a year-to-year basis. For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

Turnovers and takeaways are incredibly hard to predict on year-to-year and even a game-to-game basis (teams with a turnover differential of +4 or higher and teams with a turnover differential of -4 or lower both average a turnover differential of +0.0 in the following game). Just look at safety Thomas DeCoud, who led the Falcons with 6 interceptions last season. In his previous 3 seasons as a starter, he had 8 interceptions total. We’re talking about what players do on a tiny fraction of their snaps so it’s going to be inconsistent.

While I don’t expect Matt Ryan to see his interception total suddenly balloon, it’s very unlikely that the Falcons lose just 4 fumbles all season in 2012. It’s also unlikely that the Falcons recover 64.3% of fumbles that hit the ground next season. The Falcons also face a tougher schedule in 2013, which should help neutralize that turnover advantage. In 2012, the Falcons faced just 2 playoff teams in the regular season. The Falcons also lost a lot this off-season. They return just 2 starters in their original spot on an offensive line whose biggest strength was continuity, with the loss of right tackle Tyson Clabo being the biggest. They downgrade from John Abraham to Osi Umenyiora and also lost defensive tackle Vance Walker. The only real addition was the upgrade from the washed up Michael Turner to the almost washed up Steven Jackson at running back.

The Saints, meanwhile, should be heading in the opposite direction. Ordinarily, we can expect teams that have big win changes to have an opposite change of about half the following season, so a 6 win decrease is, on average, followed by a 3 win increase. This is because the NFL has such a short season that, when teams have big win changes, it has more to do with bad or good luck than an actual change in talent level. Sean Payton returns this season to help an offense that wasn’t actually that bad last season and they have a very good chance to get back over 30+ points per game. Defensively, they can’t possibly be as bad. They upgrade from Steve Spagnuolo to Rob Ryan at defensive coordinator and switch to a defensive scheme that fits guys like Cameron Jordan, Akiem Hicks, Junior Galette, and Martez Wilson much better. Off-season additions of Keenan Lewis and Kenny Vaccaro should help their secondary.

I don’t think either of these teams will reach their 2011 win total because they’re both a little worse defensively and because the NFC, and particularly the NFC South, is so much tougher now than that. Once divisional doormats, Carolina and Tampa Bay will both be very tough wins at worst this season. However, they’ll both resemble their 2011 version much more than their 2012 version. In 2011, the Saints won both games in this matchup so that needs to be taken account, especially considering they delivered a 45-16 ass-whooping at home week 16. The Saints didn’t lose a game at home in 2011 as well, including post-season. For that reason, I like the Saints’ chances to win here, and cover as 3 point favorites. There will be a lot of points scored on each side, as neither of these teams plays good defense, and I would be shocked if either team won by 29 again, but I have some confidence in the Saints here.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

New Orleans Saints 34 Atlanta Falcons 27

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Falcons, Uncategorized

QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta)

Dirk Koetter’s arrival in Atlanta led to Matt Ryan attempting a career high 615 passes last season, which led to a career high in completions (422), yards (4719), and touchdowns (32). He was also the most efficient he’s ever been on a per play basis, ranking 5th in the NFL with a 99.4 QB rating, a career high. Also a career high was his 68.6% completion percentage and his 7.7 yards per attempt were the 2nd highest of his career. While he did throw 14 interceptions, his interception rate of 2.3% was actually right in line with his career average. He could see inferior production this season as a result of a tougher schedule, though not a lot inferior.

Projection: 4500 passing yards 30 touchdowns 15 interceptions 100 rushing yards 1 touchdown (286 pts standard, 346 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Steven Jackson (Atlanta)

Steven Jackson can’t be worse than Michael Turner, but Falcons fans might not be getting the guy they’re expecting. He turns 30 in July and has 2395 career carries. He’s 26th all-time in rushing yards at 10,135, but the average top-25 all-time running back has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. And after players have their drop off, they average just 169 carries per season at 3.5 yards per carry and just 5 touchdowns, so they’re really a non-factor as a back. He should have one more good year in him, but there are no guarantees at this point in his career.

Projection: 200 carries for 860 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 30 catches for 250 rushing yards (159 pts standard, 189 pts PPR)

RB Jacquizz Rodgers (Atlanta)     

With Jackson coming in, it’s unclear what role Rodgers will have. Rodgers did well in 2012, catching 53 passes, to go with 94 carries, but Jackson is also a good pass catcher and unlike Turner will stay on the field in passing downs. Rodgers should go back to being a true backup and he’ll be insurance in case father time finally beats Jackson. Jackson doesn’t have a ton of explosive burst at this point in his career so Rodgers’ speed will serve well as a complement.

Projection: 110 carries for 480 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 40 catches for 300 receiving yards (96 pts standard, 136 pts PPR)

WR Julio Jones (Atlanta)

Julio Jones is heading into his 3rd year in the league, a year when receivers tend to break out, as if a receiver who caught 79 passes for 1198 yards and 10 touchdowns in his age 23 season could break out any more. I expect him to be their leading receiver though.

Projection: 80 catches for 1240 receiving yards 10 touchdowns (184 pts standard, 264 pts PPR)

WR Roddy White (Atlanta)

Roddy White is heading into his age 32 season, so some statistical drop off is to be expected. He’s already noticeably less explosive than he was in his prime and he averaged just 3.6 yards average catch per catch last season. He’s much more of a possession receiver than anything else at this point in his career, though a very good one at that.

Projection: 85 catches for 1200 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (162 pts standard, 247 pts PPR)

TE Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta)

Tony Gonzalez, meanwhile, is even older, heading into his age 37 season and his 2.7 yards after catch per catch were even less than White’s. His mere 10.0 yards per catch also shows a lack of explosiveness and while he was a great possession receiver last year, he did have 13 fewer catches the year before and 23 fewer two years before that. I think it’s much more likely that his production falls off drastically than White’s.

Projection: 70 catches for 770 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (113 pts standard, 183 pts PPR)

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Atlanta Falcons 2013 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Falcons, Uncategorized

Introduction

The Falcons won 13 games last year, but largely did so with smoke and mirrors and in a way that won’t be sustainable into 2013. 7 of those 13 wins came by a touchdown or less as they went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, something that tends to even out in the long run. While they did outscore opponents by a total of 120 points on the season (not unimpressive, though it was surpassed by San Francisco, Seattle, New England, and Denver), they actually outgained opponents by 57 yards total on the season. For example, while they ranked 5th in the NFL allowing 18.7 points per game, they were 20th in the NFL in YPA allowed, 29th in YPC allowed, and 24th in total yards allowed. On a per play basis, they were actually outgained on the season, allowing 5.9 yards per play, as opposed to just 5.8 yards per play gained.

A lot of this had to do with their superb turnover differential as they had 13 more takeaways than giveaways. That tends to be unsustainable on a year-to-year basis. For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

Turnovers and takeaways are incredibly hard to predict on year-to-year and even a game-to-game basis (teams with a turnover differential of +4 or higher and teams with a turnover differential of -4 or lower both average a turnover differential of +0.0 in the following game). Just look at safety Thomas DeCoud, who led the Falcons with 6 interceptions last season. In his previous 3 seasons as a starter, he had 8 interceptions total. We’re talking about what players do on a tiny fraction of their snaps so it’s going to be inconsistent.

While I don’t expect Matt Ryan to see his interception total suddenly balloon, it’s very unlikely that the Falcons lose just 4 fumbles all season in 2012. It’s also unlikely that the Falcons recover 64.3% of fumbles that hit the ground next season. The Falcons also face a tougher schedule in 2013, which should help neutralize that turnover advantage.

In 2012, the Falcons faced just 2 playoff teams in the regular season. While they did defeat both of them, they did so by a combined 13 points and both games came in week 5 or earlier. They beat Denver in Peyton Manning’s 2nd game back and Washington in a game that Robert Griffin got hurt with a lead. Once in the playoffs, they drew Seattle, a West Coast team at a 1 PM ET start and a team that was 4-5 on the road to that point in the season (they would have been 3-6 if Griffin hadn’t gotten hurt against them the previous week) and they still only won that game by 2. The following week, they were eliminated at home by San Francisco, easily their toughest opponent of the season.

This year, they draw the NFC West (arguably the best division in football) and the AFC East rather than the NFC East and the AFC West, as they did last year. They trade out games against Arizona and Detroit for games against Washington and Green Bay and all 3 of their division foes are better than they were last season.

Simply put, if they want to win 13 games again or even 10-12 games, they’ll have to play better than they did last season. In terms of DVOA, which does a fantastic job of normalizing NFL team’s play regardless of their raw win-loss record, the Falcons actually ranked 10th in the NFL last season and they were 13th in terms of weighted DVOA, which weighs games later in the season more heavily.

I liken the 2012 Falcons to a 4 or 5 seed in the NBA that has a 13-3 stretch, not uncommon for that caliber of a team, but not indicative of the team’s level of talent. A significant decline in wins wouldn’t even be inconsistent with history as 13-win teams, on average, win 9.5 games the following season, but I think everything I’ve mentioned so far suggests that they could be even worse than that, in the neighborhood of 8-9 wins. The NFC is a loaded conference and there might not be room for them in the playoffs.

Almost every year, a team goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs and I think of the 4 candidates from 2012 (Denver, New England, and San Francisco), Atlanta is the most vulnerable. Denver and New England are pretty much guaranteed playoff spots in their crappy conference barring injuries to Brady or Manning. Meanwhile, San Francisco, as they showed last season, is simply a more talented team than the Falcons, maybe more talented than any team in the NFL.

Quarterback

Dirk Koetter’s arrival in Atlanta led to Matt Ryan attempting a career high 615 passes last season, which led to a career high in completions (422), yards (4719), and touchdowns (32). He was also the most efficient he’s ever been on a per play basis, ranking 5th in the NFL with a 99.4 QB rating, a career high. Also a career high was his 68.6% completion percentage and his 7.7 yards per attempt were the 2nd highest of his career. While he did throw 14 interceptions, his interception rate of 2.3% was actually right in line with his career average. He could see inferior production this season as a result of a tougher schedule, though not a lot inferior and if they do miss the playoffs, it won’t be on him.

Grade: A-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

One thing that really helps Matt Ryan is his great receiving corps. The best way to describe his receiving corps would be to call them top heavy, meaning it’s 3 guys who are superb and then little else. No team in the NFL had their top 3 receivers play a higher percentage of possible snaps than Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez, who played a combined 2823 of a possible 3219 snaps, 87.7%. They also received 386 of Matt Ryan’s 592 “aimed” pass attempts, 65.2%, caught 264 of Matt Ryan’s 422 completions, 62.6%, totaled 3479 of Matt Ryan’s 4719 yards, 72.7%, and 25 of his 32 touchdowns, 78.1%, all most in the NFL. Ryan completed 68.4% of his passes for an average of 9.0 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions when throwing to that trio and they only dropped 15 passes between them.

All three return for this season with minor concerns. For one, Roddy White is heading into his age 32 season, so some statistical drop off is to be expected. He’s already noticeably less explosive than he was in his prime and he averaged just 3.6 yards average catch per catch last season. He’s much more of a possession receiver than anything else at this point in his career, though a very good one at that.

Tony Gonzalez, meanwhile, is even older, heading into his age 37 season and his 2.7 yards after catch per catch were even less than White’s. His mere 10.0 yards per catch also shows a lack of explosiveness and while he was a great possession receiver last year, he did have 13 fewer catches the year before and 23 fewer two years before that. I think it’s much more likely that his production falls off drastically than White’s and he also can’t run block at all. Fortunately, Julio Jones is heading into his 3rd year in the league, a year when receivers tend to break out, as if a receiver who caught 79 passes for 1198 yards and 10 touchdowns in his age 23 season could break out any more. I expect him to be their leading receiver though.

After them, however, no one else had more than 402 receiving yards and the player who had those 402 receiving yards was backup running back Jacquizz Rodgers. Harry Douglas, the #3 receiver, was largely inefficient with 396 receiving yards on 420 routes run, 4th worst in the NFL on a per route basis. Part of that is just that there weren’t a lot of balls to go around after the aforementioned trio, but part of it is on him too and he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 95th ranked wide receiver out of 105 eligible.

At tight end after Tony Gonzalez, the player with the next most snaps played in 2012 was Michael Palmer, who played just 180, as the Falcons used two-tight ends the least out of any team in the NFL. That could change in 2013 though with the addition of Levine Toilolo in the 4th round of the draft. Toilolo is the exact opposite of a seam stretcher, but he can block at an NFL level and at 6-8 he’s a real threat as a possession receiver down around the goal line. He’s not Tony Gonzalez’ future replacement or anything, but he can at least be someone like Scott Chandler and he should surpass those 180 snaps played.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

One of the reasons the Falcons were able to win despite barely winning the yardage battle in 2012 was their lack of penalties. Including special teams, they were penalized a league low 68 times in 2012 and their history in the Mike Smith era suggests that’s no fluke. They were the least penalized team in the NFL in 2010, the 3rd least in 2009, and actually the least penalized team in the league over the past 5 seasons. That’s something that, unlike record in close games and turnover differential, is sustainable. However, some personnel changes on the offensive line may negatively affect that because of a lack of continuity.

Since Sam Baker took over at left tackle in 2009, 4 of the 5 spots have been the same for the Falcons on the offensive line in all 4 seasons, with the exception being right guard and I think that has a lot to do with why their offensive line committed just 15 penalties last season. Sam Baker, Justin Blalock, Todd McClure, and Tyson Clabo have been together for 4 seasons and last year they missed a combined 24 snaps in the regular and post-season combined.

However, while Baker was re-signed for 6 years this off-season and Blalock remains, center Todd McClure retired after 14 seasons with the Falcons, while right tackle Tyson Clabo was a cap casualty. In McClure’s place, Peter Konz will shift from right guard to center, with Garrett Reynolds taking over at right guard. Meanwhile, Lamar Holmes will start at right tackle.

Konz and Holmes were their 2nd and 3rd round picks respectively in the 2012 NFL Draft and the Falcons, who haven’t had a lot of draft picks of late because of the Julio Jones trade, really need them to pay dividends. Konz was a steal in the 2nd round and, while he struggled mightily as a rookie at right guard, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 76th ranked guard out of 81 eligible, he should be better in his 2nd season in the league at center, his natural position. Holmes, however, is much more of a question mark. On top of that, Reynolds, the new starter at right guard, was ProFootballFocus’ 64th ranked guard out of 78 eligible in 2011, despite making just 11 starts. The right side of the offensive line is a concern, not just in pass protection and run blocking, but penalty wise as well.

Fortunately, things are much more familiar on the left side. Sam Baker has, more or less, been the starter at left tackle for 4 seasons now, but he hasn’t always been good. In 2009, he was a league average starter. In 2010, he was ProFootballFocus’ 69th ranked tackle out of 78 eligible. In 2011, 60th out of 76 eligible despite making just 8 starts due to injury.

He got everything together for his contract year in 2012, when he graded out as the 27th ranked offensive tackle and he was rewarded with a rich 6-year contract this off-season. The Falcons will obviously be hoping that’s not a mistake, but it could be if Baker’s past struggles or injury woes rear their heads once more. Alec Savoie, an undrafted free agent, is listed as the backup left tackle, though reserve right tackle Mike Johnson is likely to be the game day swing tackle.

The most reliable starter on the offensive line is Blalock at left guard, who hasn’t missed a snap, post-season or otherwise, in any of the last 5 seasons. He’s been an unspectacular player, grading out most recently just barely below average, but he doesn’t commit penalties or miss snaps and in 2010 he was ProFootballFocus’ 12th ranked guard. Overall though, there are plenty of concerns on this offensive line. They ranked 14th in the NFL in pass block efficiency last season. They may be in the bottom half in 2013.

Grade: B-

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Running Backs

The Falcons didn’t run block that well in 2012, but it might not have mattered as Michael Turner was probably the worst starting running back in the NFL last season. There’s a reason he doesn’t have a job as of this writing. Turner averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, broke off a run of 20 or more roughly once a month, struggled in short yardage situations, caught just 19 passes, and got arrested for DUI. He simply didn’t have any NFL level skills. While he led the team in carries, he actually played fewer snaps than “2nd string” running back Jacquizz Rodgers, who was a valuable change of pace and pass catching back.

Steven Jackson, who was brought in to replace Turner, can’t be worse, but Falcons fans might not be getting the guy they’re expecting. He turns 30 in July and has 2395 career carries. He’s 26th all-time in rushing yards at 10,135, but the average top-25 all-time running back has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. And after players have their drop off, they average just 169 carries per season at 3.5 yards per carry and just 5 touchdowns, so they’re really a non-factor as a back. He should have one more good year in him, but there are no guarantees at this point in his career.

With Jackson coming in, it’s unclear what role Rodgers will have. Rodgers did well in 2012, catching 53 passes, to go with 94 carries, but Jackson is also a good pass catcher and unlike Turner will stay on the field in passing downs. Rodgers should go back to being a true backup and he’ll be insurance in case father time finally beats Jackson. Jackson doesn’t have a ton of explosive burst at this point in his career so Rodgers’ speed will serve well as a complement.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

The Falcons may run more different fronts on a regular basis than any team in the NFL under Defensive Coordinator Mike Nolan, so the best way to categorize their front 7 players is into interior defensive linemen, edge rushers, and non-pass rushing linebackers. Starting with their interior defensive linemen, they used a rotation of 4 guys last season and would frequently play 3 at the same time. They lost one of that foursome, Vance Walker, to free agency and he was actually the highest rated of the bunch last season. This means that Jonathan Babineaux, Peria Jerry, and Corey Peters will have to play more snaps this season and that the inexperienced Travian Robertson will move into the rotation. There have also been rumors about them signing Richard Seymour, but for now I will only discuss the guys actually on their roster.

While the departed Walker was their best interior defensive lineman last season, Jonathan Babineaux is probably the most talented of the bunch. While Walker had one good season in 2012, Babineaux has graded out above average in each of the last 5 seasons, topping out as ProFootballFocus’ #1 rated defensive tackle in 2009 and their #13 rated defensive tackle in 2011, and he’s led their defensive line in snaps played in 4 of the last 5 seasons. Last season actually might have been his worst season in the last 5 years, as he graded out just above average, struggling against the run, but managing 6 sacks, 4 hits, and 20 hurries on 566 pass rush snaps. He turns 32 this season so that’s a concern.

Jerry and Peters, meanwhile, both graded out well below average last season. Peters was the worst offender as only one defensive tackle graded out lower than him last season and no one had a worse run stopping grade at his position. Jerry was better, but only by default, grading out 64th out of 85 eligible. Robertson, meanwhile, was a 2012 7th round pick who only played 47 regular season snaps so it’s tough to count on him. Walker will be missed.

Someone else who will be missed is John Abraham. Abraham is going into his age 35 season this year, doesn’t play the run well, and was on a snap count, but there’s something to be said for being an incredibly efficient pass rusher and that’s what Abraham was last season, though he did completely fade away in their post-season games and not record a single pressure. However, in the regular season, he was ProFootballFocus’ 5th ranked 4-3 defensive end both overall and rushing the passer and he had 10 sacks, 8 hits, and 36 hurries on 436 pass rush snaps, a 12.4% rate. They technically could still bring him back if they wanted to as he’s still available thanks to his ridiculous asking price, but all reports say that the bridge between Abraham and the Falcons is burned. For a team that only had 30 sacks in 2012, 33 if you include the post-season, he’ll be greatly missed.

They brought in Osi Umenyiora to replace him, but he’s not the same. Once a very good pass rusher, Umenyiora has been a league average player for the most part in the 4 seasons since returning from a torn ACL suffered in 2008 and he’s heading into his age 33 season. He doesn’t play the run well nor does he rush the passer well enough to make up for it, with 6 sacks, 7 hits, and 32 hurries on 422 pass rush snaps last season, a 10.7% rate. He also doesn’t have any experience in a 3-4 so he probably won’t play in any packages that require edge rushers to rush from a standing position and potentially drop into coverage.

Kroy Biermann, meanwhile, is expected to be the other starting edge rusher. He is more comfortable playing a rush linebacker position than Umenyiora, but he’s also shown a startling inability to get to the quarterback since a mini breakout season in 2010, grading out well below average in that aspect in each of the last 2 seasons. The Falcons also have a stable of young, inexperienced pass rushers on the roster as they’ve taken Malliciah Goodman (4th round in 2013), Jonathan Massaquoi (5th round in 2012), Cliff Matthews (7th round in 2011), and Stansly Maponga (5th round in 2013), in the late rounds in the last few drafts. It’s tough to count on them for much though, so pass rush is really going to be hard to come by.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

Poor defensive line play was a big part of the reason why the Falcons ranked 29th in the league, surrendering 4.8 yards per carry, but poor linebacker play was also part of it. Sean Weatherspoon, a 2010 1st round pick and a breakout star of their 2011 season, inexplicably had a poor year in 2012, grading out below average overall and struggling massively against the run. No 4-3 outside linebacker had a worse grade in that regard last season, though good coverage ability and consistently impressive blitz ability helped make up for that somewhat. He was ProFootballFocus’ 5th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2011 and he did have a bit of a knee problem last year, so maybe that was it, but it’s still tough to know what they’re going to get from him.

Stephen Nicholas, meanwhile, is the other non-passing linebacker. He was the opposite of Weatherspoon, grading out above average against the run, but struggling mightily in coverage. He should really be only a two-down third linebacker who comes off the field in base packages, but the Falcons don’t have enough depth at linebacker for him to serve in that role.

Their 3rd linebacker will once again be Akeem Dent, though they rarely use 3 linebackers, coming out in sub packages more than any team in the league besides Green Bay and San Francisco and also frequently using 5 defensive lineman (3 interior guys and 2 edge rushers). Dent graded out slightly below average on actually 504 snaps, though that was more due to injuries than his role actually being in demand for this team. Their tendency to use 5 defensive backs also likely contributed to their poor play against the run.

Grade: C+

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Secondary

For a team that used an extra defensive back so often, you’d think they’d rank higher than 20th against the pass in terms of yards per allowed. San Francisco and Green Bay ranked 2nd and 8th respectively. However, you can blame their pass rush a lot for that. Their best defensive back was actually the nickel back Robert McClain, who had the highest grade in their secondary and actually their 2nd highest grade overall defensively behind Abraham, which speaks a lot to the lack of talent they have on this side of the ball.

McClain, coming into the lineup for an injured Brent Grimes, was ProFootballFocus’ 12th ranked cornerback last season. Only 6 players allowed a lower QB rating when thrown on while covering the slot and only 3 allowed fewer yards per slot cover snap. The Falcons used a 1st round pick on Desmond Trufant to insure that McClain could stay on the slot. Trufant will replace Dunta Robinson, a good tackling cornerback, but a stiff cover man who won’t be missed that much. Still, it’ll be tough to rely on a rookie cornerback, especially in the first half of the season.

The other starting cornerback is Asante Samuel. Samuel was really Robinson’s opposite last year, covering well, but in typical Asante Samuel fashion missing numerous tackles, leading all cornerbacks with 18. He allowed just 41 catches on 77 attempts for 596 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while deflecting 7 passes and committing 2 penalties, which is impressive, but he’s now 32 years old and won’t age that well considering his game is built on quickness, jumping routes, and taking chances. The Falcons drafted another cornerback, Robert Alford, in the 2nd round to be his eventual successor in 2014 and beyond, but for now Samuel, Trufant, and McClain will be their top-3 cornerbacks and see the field together often. It’s not an untalented bunch, but there are questions and lack of pass rush will hurt.

Thomas DeCoud will man one safety spot. I mentioned the 6 interceptions he had in the opening, but as I said, takeaways are very inconsistent. It’s important not to judge a guy on what he does on 6 snaps and overall DeCoud was a below average player last year, covering pretty well, but missing 21 tackles, 2nd most in the NFL among players at any position. Ironically, he graded out better in 2011, though not by much, when he had just 4 interceptions. He’s an average starter.

William Moore is the other starter at safety. He was given a 5-year contract this off-season, but he’s struggled to stay healthy thus far in his career, playing in just 42 of a possible 64 regular season games since being taken in the 2nd round in 2009. Ironically, his healthiest season, 2010, was his lowest rated season, but he’s graded out above average in each of the last 2 seasons, grading out as ProFootballFocus 11th and 18th ranked safety in 2011 and 2012 respectively despite limited playing time. As long as he’s on the field, he’ll be an asset.

Overall though, I find it very hard to believe that the Falcons will have another top-5 scoring defense. The schedule will be harder, their talent level is lower, and they were 24th in terms of yards allowed last season. I like Mike Nolan a lot and I think he’s one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL and he won’t allow them to be awful, but if they do, in fact, miss the playoffs, it’s going to be much more on their defense than their offense.

Grade: B

Head Coach

Mike Smith doesn’t get his name mentioned among the best Head Coaches in the NFL, but that probably has more to do with the fact that his name is Mike Smith than anything. He took over a team in shambles following the Michael Vick arrest, the Bobby Petrino resignation, and the Joey Harrington playing quarterback fiasco and has taken them to the playoffs in 4 of his first 5 seasons in the league, with the one exception being a season in which what Matt Ryan missed 3 games. His regular season numbers are on par with John Harbaugh, though Harbaugh has the ring.

Smith’s Falcon teams have almost always had very few penalties, won a high percentage of their close games, and won the turnover battle. While the latter two tend to be unsustainable, Smith’s Falcon teams are almost at the point where we can consider them an outlier and the former is very sustainable, though with personnel turnover that will be tougher this season and he may overall have his work cut out for him if he wants to make it 5 playoff appearances in 6 seasons. He does have help from two great coordinators in Dirk Koetter and especially Mike Nolan.

Grade: A-

Overall

Overall, the Falcons have an above average offense and a below average defense and their offense is better than their defense is bad, if that makes any sense. However, they’re nowhere near the 13 win team they were last season and they have a brutal schedule in the loaded NFC South, facing a 1st place schedule in the loaded NFC, and also taking on the loaded NFC West in their non-divisional games.

Inside the division, I think 4-2 is the best case scenario, which 3-3 being more likely. They could also go 2-4. Even last year, they were 3-3 in the division. Every team in the division is improved. Carolina, who beat them easily once and could have done so a 2nd time, should be able to win at least one game against them and the same goes for the Saints.

Outside of the division, they host St. Louis, the Jets, Seattle, Washington, and New England. They do rarely lose at home and they luck out by getting to play Seattle at 1 PM on the East Coast, but, with the exception of the Jets, that’s a tough schedule and they won’t win all of those games, with New England being the most likely loss. They also go to Miami, Buffalo, Arizona, Green Bay, and San Francisco. Green Bay and San Francisco will likely be losses and any of the other 3 games could be trap games considering that this isn’t a very good road team. Overall, it looks like 8 or 9 wins, but for the sake of parity, I’ll call it 8. Either way, I have them on the outside looking in with the 7th or 8th best record in the NFC. If they were in the AFC, they’d be an 11 win team, but that’s not the case.

Projection: 8-8 3rd in NFC South

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Atlanta Falcons Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Peter Konz

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Falcons, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Atlanta Falcons, that player is center Peter Konz.

Konz was one of the better center prospects I’ve scouted, a 3 year starter at the offensive line factory that is the University of Wisconsin and a big time road grader at 6-5 315, with the balance and technique to excel inside despite his height. Konz also had 33 inch arms and help up in pass protection one on one when asked. Centers rarely go in the 1st round, but Konz had a chance to. An ankle injury sustained late in the season dropped him into the 2nd round, where the Falcons took him 53rd overall, which I thought was an excellent pick. Despite giving up their 1st rounder the year before in the Julio Jones trade, I still thought they got a 1st round talent out of the draft.

The original plan was for Konz to be a reserve as a rookie at center behind veteran Todd McClure, but 6 weeks into the season, right guard Garrett Reynolds went down for the year with a back injury and Konz was inserted at right guard, an unnatural position. Konz struggled mightily in 12 starts, 10 in the regular season. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 76th ranked guard out of 81 eligible in the regular season, allowing 5 sacks, 7 hits, and 13 hurries, while struggling as a run blocker.

However, with Reynolds set to return at right guard and center Todd McClure retiring, Konz is expected to be the starter at center this year, where he’s a much more natural fit and he could easily have a breakout year and emerge as one of the better centers in the league. He has the talent to and I wouldn’t put much stock into his rough first season in the league.

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Atlanta Falcons re-sign S William Moore

stevenlourie Falcons

I was worried that Falcons would pay William Moore in that Michael Huff, Tyvon Branch, Eric Weddle, Michael Griffin range of young safeties who have gotten multi-year deals in the past 2 years, when that’s not the type of player he is. He’s not an elite safety and wouldn’t have been deserving of the franchise tag that the Falcons were rumored to be considering using on him, before ultimately opting against it.

This 5-year, 30 million dollar deal, with 14 million guaranteed is noticeably less total and guaranteed money than the aforementioned safeties and I think it’s a very reasonable deal for him. ProFootballFocus’ 21st rated safety last season, Moore has graded out as an above average player in each of the last two years, but has never played at an elite level and has his share of injury issues in the past. 14 million is a little bit too much guaranteed for someone with Moore’s injury history, but all in all, I think this is a solid deal for a solid player.

Grade: B

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Defensive Scheme Changes: Falcons, Saints, Browns, Eagles, Cowboys

stevenlourie Browns, Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons, News, Saints

4-3 to 3-4

Atlanta Falcons

This one isn’t confirmed, but Falcons’ defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is a 3-4 guy. He did a great job in his first season with the Falcons, coaching them to a top-5 scoring defense, despite having to run a 4-3, because he wisely realized they didn’t have the personnel for an immediate switch to a 3-4. Still, you have to figure he’s going to want to go to a 3-4 eventually and going into his 2nd year with the team, there are rumors, though nothing confirmed, that he may be taking them to a 3-4 base this season. They already ran a lot of 3-3 looks last year, as they frequently used sub packages.

If there were to go to a 3 man line full time in 2013, it would resemble the one from their 3-3 front. Jonathan Babineaux would be a 3-4 defensive end and Peria Jerry, Corey Peters, or Vance Walker could play the other 3-4 end spot, though Peters was terrible last year and Walker is a free agent. Either way, they do need a true nose tackle, something this roster lacks. There’s a reason they ranked 29th against the run in 2013. If he’s even re-signed, Walker is their biggest tackle on the roster at about 305, which isn’t going to cut it.

Going to the linebacking corps, defensive ends John Abraham and Kroy Biermann would move to the 3-4 outside linebacker spot. Whether or not they will fit the new position remains to be seen, but either way, they need help at the position. Abraham turns 35 in May, while Biermann is a marginal and inconsistent starter, and their depth is suspect at best. Outside linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Stephen Nicholas would move inside to middle linebacker, though Nicholas should just be a base package run stuffer and someone else should come in for him in sub packages. Akeem Dent is a candidate, but it also may be someone not currently on their roster.

New Orleans Saints

After ranking among the worst in the NFL in every single defensive category, including 31st in opponent’s scoring, the Saints have rightfully fired defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. They apparently want to do anything they can to change things up as they are reportedly interested in hiring a defensive coordinator with a 3-4 background to run that scheme in New Orleans. As would have been the case if they had stayed in a 4-3, they still need more talent upfront.

Cameron Jordan might benefit the most from the scheme change, as the collegiate 3-4 end had been struggling as a 4-3 end in the NFL. Opposite him, however, they have nothing and someone like Sheldon Richardson will be an option at 15th overall in the 2013 NFL Draft. At nose tackle, expect Brodrick Bunkley and Akiem Hicks to hold down the fort. Both could also play end as well, I suppose, but that will still be a need.

Like 3-4 defensive end, rush linebacker is now a huge need. Will Smith will almost definitely be cut. Not only is he overpaid and not very good anymore, but he’s a terrible fit for a 3-4. That leaves the Saints with nickel rushers Martez Wilson and Junior Galette at the position. They’ll bring someone else in. Someone like Dion Jordan or Ezekiel Ansah will also be an option at 15th overall. Expect them to take a 3-4 defensive end and outside linebacker, in either order, with their first 2 picks of the 2013 NFL Draft. Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne, meanwhile, are obvious fits at middle linebacker and should be able to have bounce back years in the new scheme. Jonathan Vilma probably would have been cut either way, but this pretty much seals the deal.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns made the opposite transition a few years ago, switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3 after the 2010 season, with Pat Shurmur coming in. That should help ease the transition. However, they do have a bunch of new front 7 players. Jabaal Sheard is their best pass rusher and I don’t think he’ll have much of an issue moving from 4-3 end to 3-4 outside linebacker. They’ll need a complement for him, opposite him, but they would have needed another pass rusher regardless. Expect them to target rush linebackers at #6 overall.

The reason they need another pass rush is because Juqua Parker is a 35 year old free agent this off-season. He split snaps opposite Sheard last year with Frostee Rucker and frankly they weren’t very good either. Rucker, however, may be a better fit as a 3-4 end. Between him, Billy Winn, John Hughes, Phil Taylor, and Ahytba Rubin, they should be set on the defensive line. That’s five guys who can play significant snaps, including two, Rubin and Taylor, who have the size to play on the nose.

At inside linebacker, D’Qwell Jackson will remain, as he did the last time they used a 3-4. Either Craig Robertson, Kaluka Maiava, or James-Michael Johnson will play next to him. Chris Gocong is another candidate, provided he isn’t cut, owed 4.45 million in 2013, coming off an Achilles tear that ended his 2012 season. Rush linebacker is really their only need area up front, even for depth purposes. They look pretty set at all other positions, but rush linebacker is probably the most important one.

Philadelphia Eagles

Like the Saints, the Eagles have not formally hired a defensive coordinator, but new Head Coach Chip Kelly is a believer in the 3-4 scheme and they are expected to hire a 3-4 defensive coordinator, likely San Francisco defensive backs coach Ed Donatell. They will need to wait until after the Super Bowl to do so, but that’s probably the reason why they have yet to hire anyone.

The scheme change might be best for Fletcher Cox and Cullen Jenkins, who will both move both from defensive tackle to defensive end. Both are natural fits for the position and Jenkins has some experience playing there from his days in Green Bay. Mike Patterson, Cedric Thornton, and Derek Landri will provide solid depth, though the latter is a free agent this off-season. Antonio Dixon has to be thrilled about the position change as well. He’s a talented player in the right scheme, but he was lost in Philadelphia’s wide nine last year, which is why he was cut and not brought back until Jim Washburn was fired and the Eagles scrapped the wide nine. He looks like a natural fit at 3-4 nose tackle, but they’ll have to bring in competition.

The biggest risk is changing schemes for them is that their edge rushers might not fit. Brandon Graham was one of the most efficient pass rushers in the NFL last year and dominated once given a chance to start down the stretch last year. Trent Cole, meanwhile, is coming off a down year, but in the 6 years prior, he was one of the most consistently excellent defensive ends in the NFL. It might not be a good idea to mess with success. One thing the Eagles do have, however, is plenty of depth at rush linebacker. Vinny Curry was a 2nd round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft and Phillip Hunt and Darryl Tapp have played well in limited action, though the latter is a free agent this off-season.

Their expected middle linebackers are DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks. Ryans stays in his 2012 spot in the middle, while Kendricks moves from the outside. Those two probably had different reactions to finding out they’d be changing schemes. Ryans was nowhere near his normal self in Houston in a 3-4 in 2011, which is why he got traded to the Eagles. Kendricks, meanwhile, struggled as a rookie, but perhaps a change to a 3-4 will get him turned around. He played in a 3-4 in college, playing both inside and outside. The Eagles don’t have any major needs in the front 7, with the exception of competition for Dixon, but they didn’t really have any to begin with.
3-4 to 4-3

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are making the opposite move this off-season, going from years of a 3-4 back to a 4-3. While I don’t understand hiring Monte Kiffin if he’s not going to run his signature Tampa 2 coverage scheme, I like the move to a 4-3 for the Cowboys. All 3 of their talented non-rush linebackers, Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, and Dan Connor, will be able to be on the field at the same time, while Lee and Carter will be able to play in space more often. Jay Ratliff is a better fit in a 4-3 than a 3-4 on the nose, though after his recent arrest, it’s questionable if he’ll be brought back next season. Jason Hatcher is tentatively expected to play defensive tackle next to him, but he is a bit of a tweener in a 4-3.

DeMarcus Ware will move to 4-3 defensive end, which is not as risky as moving an edge rusher from a 3-4 to a 4-3 because most edge rushers played in a 4-3 in college, as Ware did. I have no doubt he’ll be able to get to the quarterback regardless of the scheme. Their biggest issue is at defensive end opposite Ware. Anthony Spencer is not expected to be retained as a free agent because the Cowboys don’t have a lot of cap space. Fellow free agent Victor Butler is an option, as he’s been solid in limited action throughout his career. They also have Tyrone Crawford, a 2012 3rd round pick who might be a better fit in a 4-3 than a 3-4. Hatcher is also an option, but that would leave them with just Marcus Spears, Sean Lissemore, and Jay Ratliff inside, assuming the latter is even retained. They could add an end through the draft at some point.

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Atlanta Falcons 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Falcons

The Falcons were tied for the best record in the NFL at 13-3 this season, but they were given very little respect throughout, and for good reason. They finished the season ranked just 10th in DVOA, had one of the easiest schedules in football, and were frequently pulling out close victories, going 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. That may seem impressive, but that is unsustainable on a week to week basis and it’s less impressive when you consider most of those wins were against teams like Oakland, Arizona, Tampa Bay, Dallas, and Carolina.

The Falcons were just 2.5 point home favorites for the Seahawks in the divisional round and were the largest home underdog in Conference Championship history against the 49ers. At the end of the day, their doubters were right. After coming back to win against Seattle late, after blowing a 20-0 lead, the Falcons blew a 17-0 point lead against the 49ers and lost by 4, unable to pull out another close win once the level of competition improved.

Their doubters were wrong in one aspect, however. Many people felt that Matt Ryan couldn’t win a playoff game because he was 0-3 in his career in the playoffs coming into the season, which I found to be an absurd argument. Matt Ryan has been among the best regular season quarterbacks since entering the league in 2008, but because of three bad postseason games we were supposed to believe that he suddenly becomes a worse quarterback in the post-season. Two of those games were against future Super Bowl Champions and one was on the road as a rookie against a team that won the NFC and went to the Super Bowl. He was only favored in one and that was against the Packers in 2010, who weren’t going to be beaten.

Matt Ryan proved those people wrong by winning his first post-season game and advancing to his first Conference Championship this year and even though he lost to the 49ers, he still played well. In the post-season, he completed 54 of 77 (70.1%) for 646 yards (8.4 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions against the NFL’s top-2 scoring defenses, scoring a combined 54 points in the process.

This came after his best regular season ever, as he completed 68.6% of his passes for an average of 7.7 YPA, 32 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, while leading the Falcons to their second #1 seed in 3 seasons and a career high 26.2 points per game. He was helped by new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and the emergence of arguably the best receiving corps in the NFL.

They’ll probably lose Tony Gonzalez to retirement this off-season, but the future is bright in Atlanta. Matt Ryan is probably around the top-6 to 8 quarterbacks in the NFL and you can definitely win a Super Bowl with him. Heading into a contract year, the Falcons are expected to open up the checkbooks and pay him this off-season. Expect him to get around 100 million over 6 years.

Running Back

It’s very impressive that the Falcons were able to be as good offensively as they were this season without much of a running game. The 3.7 YPC they averaged ranked 29th in the NFL. Michael Turner looks pretty done. The soon to be 31-year-old is not even close to being worth the 5.5 million he’s owed next season. He averaged 3.6 YPC this season and also averaged about one carry longer than 17 yards per month over the final few months of the season.

He’s never been a pass catcher and he fits Dirk Koetter’s offense like a square peg in a round hole. He’s a mediocre plodder who gets a bunch of 2 and 3 yard carries and he’s not even good in short yardage situations either anymore. He doesn’t have any NFL level skills and he won’t be any better next season. He won’t be back and he might not get another job anywhere. The Falcons like Jacquizz Rodgers, but multiple reports have said they don’t view him as a feature back. They need a power back to split carries with him. There will be plenty of running back options on day 2 of the NFL Draft.

Tight End

Tony Gonzalez said during the season that he was 95% sure he’d retire and then in the post-season, he changed that number to 97%. After their loss to the 49ers, he said he was “probably” going to retire. I won’t rule out him returning for one more run at the Lombardi. He’s certainly still playing at a high level, but either way, they need a successor, as he turns 37 in February. If the Falcons are interested in keeping their receiving corps at a very high level, which I assume they are, Tyler Eifert and Zach Ertz will be options with the 30th overall pick of the 2013 NFL Draft.

Defensive End

The Falcons made the right move by cutting dead weight and sunk cost Ray Edwards, rather than stubbornly sticking with him. However, they do need someone to be what they were expecting him to be, so expect them to make finding that a priority of their off-season. John Abraham, 35 in May, isn’t getting any younger and none of their recent late round selections have really panned out. It’s time for a blue chip prospect. They use a lot of 3-3 and 2-4 sub packages and they may even switch to a 3-4 base, which is Mike Nolan’s specialty, so whatever pass rusher they bring in needs to be comfortable rushing with his hand in the dirt and standing up.

Guard

Peter Konz really struggled as a rookie at right guard, but he’s still a long term starter at center. Todd McClure is a 36 year old free agent this off-season and may be done with the team, if not in the NFL entirely, as he’s reportedly considering retirement. They do, however, need a new right guard. Garrett Reynolds has seen action there over the past 2 years, but he’s a replacement level talent and a free agent this off-season anyway.

Middle Linebacker

The idea was to have Akeem Dent split snaps with Lofa Tatupu and allow Stephen Nicholas to remain a two-down linebacker, but Tatupu got hurt, so that didn’t work. Dent played as the two-down linebacker and didn’t really play that well. Nicholas, meanwhile, was horrible in coverage and obviously shouldn’t be anything more than a 3rd linebacker who plays in base situations. They need another every down linebacker to replace Dent in the middle and play next to Sean Weatherspoon, who is talented, but had a down year. There’s a reason they ranked 29th against the run. If they switch to a 3-4 however, they’ll just need someone to split snaps with Nicholas inside.

Defensive Tackle

Defensive tackle is also part of the reason why they struggled against the run. Corey Peters was awful this year, ranking 84th out of 85 eligible defensive tackles on ProFootballFocus, while Vance Walker is a free agent. Mike Nolan likes having good depth at defensive tackle for all of his various fronts, with 4 guys playing at least 518 snaps for them at the position this year. They need to add another in the mix, preferably a big, run stuffing nose tackle type if they’re going to move to more of a 3-4 base.

Safety

William Moore is a talented safety, but he’s a free agent. If he’s not re-signed, he’ll need to be replaced. Thomas DeCoud, meanwhile, misses way too many tackles. His 21 missed tackles were 2nd worst in the NFL. Bringing him back as a starter wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world because he has some ball skills, but interceptions can be inconsistent on a year to year basis (he had 8 in his 4 year career before he had 6 this year). He did only have 2 pass deflections.

Cornerback

Robert McClain stepped up big time as the nickel cornerback in Brent Grimes’ absence, but Asante Samuel and Dunta Robinson are both on the wrong side of 30, heading into their age 32 and 31 seasons respectively and the former really showed some signs of decline this season. Cornerbacks take a while to develop so they could bring in a young cornerback in the mid rounds to develop for the future, as lots of teams do. Samuel hits free agency in 2015, while Robinson will be owed a ridiculous 11.5 million that season.

Offensive Tackle

Sam Baker had a very good year in his contract year, but he has a history of inconsistency and injury problems, so the Falcons have to avoid overpaying him. If he’s not brought back, they could need to replace him. Will Svitek is alright, but he did struggle in his absence in 2011, while 2012 3rd round pick Lamar Holmes remains an unknown after playing just 7 snaps as an extra blocker as a rookie.

Punt Returner

The Falcons ranked 25th in the NFL, averaging 7.9 yards per punt return.

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San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons: NFC Conference Championship

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 3 NFL Picks, 49ers, Falcons

I’m going to do New England/Baltimore later in the week, but I had to lock this one in now because this line is ridiculous. Atlanta is 5 point home underdogs. Being a home underdog in the Conference Championship isn’t unheard of. Even being a home underdog as a #1 seed in the Conference Championship isn’t unheard of. But I can’t find a single case where a team was a home underdog by more than 4 points (a key number), regardless of seed (home dogs of 4+ are 7-3 ATS in the playoffs since 1989).

This is the 2nd largest home underdog Matt Ryan has ever been. He was a 6 point home dog last year against the Packers. That Packer team went on to go 15-1. The Falcons were 2.5 point home favorites last week for the Seahawks and won by 2. By the logic of this line, the 49ers are 7 points better than the Seahawks. Uh…didn’t the Seahawks blow the 49ers out a few weeks ago?

I know that was in Seattle and the 49ers didn’t have Justin Smith, but when these teams met midseason in San Francisco and the 49ers were healthy, they were 7.5 point home favorites and won by 7, which suggests that the 49ers are only 5 points better than the Falcons on a neutral field (and this game is in Atlanta). I know the 49ers are an improved team since then, but I think the Seahawks are an even more improved team since then.

I think on a neutral field, the 49ers are about 3 points better than the Seahawks (which would make this a pick em). The odds makers seemed to agree as the Seattle/San Francisco contest hovered around a pick em that week (2.5 point home field adjustment). And now the 49ers are 7 points better than the Seahawks? 3 weeks after getting blown out by them? What? They were barely even 7 points better than them in San Francisco 3 months ago.

I don’t think the odds makers are dumb. In fact, quite the opposite. They know exactly what they’re doing. All the action is on San Francisco this week and I think this line could go even higher and that would be the case. No one is giving the Falcons a chance. The odds makers are setting themselves up for a big payday. They may or may not even help that happen. I’m no conspiracy theorist, but both the Patriots and Broncos had the majority of the borderline calls go against them last week and those were the two most heavily picked teams of the weekend. The odds makers actually had a rough year by their standards. Again, no conspiracy theorist, just stating some facts.

I actually give the Falcons plenty of chance to win. Colin Kaepernick had an amazing game last week, but he won’t have that type of game again. For one thing, I don’t know if anyone will ever have that type of game again. He was posting video game stats. But as well as he played, he was definitely helped by the Packers looking completely confused on defense all game. The 49ers purposely ran very little of the pistol in the final 2 weeks of the season to throw people off the scent for the playoffs and it worked like a charm.

At least last week it did. The Falcons will be better prepared, especially after having just faced a similar style offense the week before. They’ve also faced Cam Newton twice and Robert Griffin once this year. They’ll be as prepared as can be for Kaepernick. Having the personnel to get the job done is a bit of a question, but they won’t be unprepared. And their run defense has been better of late.

You also have to remember that this is still Kaepernick’s first year as a starter. He won last week at home in huge fashion, but now he has to go on the road and play a quarterback that is now 33-6 at home in his career. That’s tough. He may also be a little overconfident after last week. Teams are 3-14 ATS since 2002 after scoring 38 points or more in a postseason game. That includes plenty of veteran quarterbacks. It certainly doesn’t help that Kaepernick is this young.

I don’t love the Falcons to win or anything. But as long as this line is past both the key points of 3 and 4, I’m taking the points for a big play. It’s just not that easy and I mean that in two ways. Playoff football is not as easy as Kaepernick made it look last week and picking games against the spread is not as easy as this game makes it look to a lot of people. This is definitely a trap line. Think of some other playoff games where the public was so convinced one team would win that they put all their money on that team even as the line kept climbing to ridiculous heights. Super Bowl 42 comes to mind, as does Seattle/New Orleans a few years ago.

Atlanta Falcons 24 San Francisco 49ers 23 Upset Pick +185

Pick against spread: Atlanta +5 (-110) 5 units

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons: Divisional Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 2 NFL Picks, Falcons, Seahawks

Note: I normally don’t do picks this early, but Chris Clemons is expected to be out with a torn ACL. Once news of that is confirmed, this line will go up from -2.5. I like the Falcons either way, but I like them a lot more at -2.5 than -4.5, so I’m going to get this one locked in before the line moves. And if Clemons doesn’t have a torn ACL, well I was going to make this pick anyway so it’s not a loss.

Allow me to save you some time and give you all the analysis you’ll hear on ESPN or any other major sports network shows: “Matt Ryan has never won a playoff game so he can’t possibly win this game BLAH BLAH BLAH.” That’s one of the stupidest arguments because it presumes you can tell from 3 games that a generally solid quarterback somehow becomes worse in the postseason than the regular season.

Peyton Manning, though obviously a better quarterback, was in a similar situation early in his career, losing his first 3 postseason games, before winning 2 in 2003 and taking his team to the AFC Championship. Eli Manning lost his first two before leading the Giants to the Super Bowl in 2007, winning 4 in the process. Two of Ryan’s three losses came against eventual Super Bowl champs and one came on the road as a rookie. And yet people still seem to think that he can’t possibly win this game because of what happened in those first 3 games.

Everyone in the media will probably be on the Seahawks this week and an early ESPN poll shows that the public is 2/3rds on the Seahawks. I don’t have public betting action yet, but I bet the public will be all over Seattle getting points. I love fading the public because they always lose money in the long run and this week is certainly no exception. I especially love fading them when they’re on a dog because that creates a slighted favorite and gives them even more motivation. The Bengals and Colts were popular upset picks this week. How’d that work out?

I’ve been down on the Falcons all season. I’ve frequently said that they’re not as good as their record because of a lot of close calls with inferior teams. I still think they will lose at home to either Green Bay or San Francisco. Those teams are different monsters. But, it’s almost like the Falcons have become underrated for being overrated, that people have called the Falcons “overrated” so many times that everyone has forgotten that they’re a good football team with a great home field advantage.

Matt Ryan is 32-6 at home in his career, while the Seahawks have lost in Miami, Arizona, St. Louis, and Detroit this year, had a close call in Carolina, went to overtime with Chicago, and trailed 14-0 in Washington just last week before Robert Griffin got hurt. And that’s what people are overlooking this week (as well as the impact of Chris Clemons’ loss, contrary to popular belief rookie Bruce Irvin can’t fill his shoes as an every down end).

While the Seahawks are 12-24 ATS as non-divisional road dogs since 2005, the Falcons are 14-6 ATS as non-divisional home favorites since 2008, only losing twice (once was against the Packers in the playoffs in 2010, but no one was stopping them that year). On top of that, the Seahawks have to play this game on the East Coast at 1 PM as a West Coast team, a huge disadvantage. I expect them to get another home win against a road challenged team and for Matt Ryan and the rest of the Falcons to use the criticism positively and get his first postseason win.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Seattle Seahawks 17

Pick against spread: Atlanta -2.5 (-110) 4 units

Atlanta Falcons: Wild Card Round Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Playoffs 1 Power Rankings, Falcons

I’d like to start this off by saying the argument that Matt Ryan can’t go deep into the playoffs because he’s never won a playoff game is ridiculous. Peyton Manning was once 0-3 in the playoffs and he went on to win a Super Bowl. Plus, two of Ryan’s playoff losses came against eventual Super Bowl Champs. Finally, it’s just 3 games. It doesn’t really mean much. However, the conclusion those people come to is not wrong, just the reasoning. I don’t think the Falcons have a real strong chance of winning the Super Bowl, but I don’t care so much about those 3 playoff games as I do about how they’ve played in 16 games this season and I’m not impressed.

They do have one thing going for them. Matt Ryan is 32-6 at home in his career and, by virtue of their record, they got the #1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. However, that’s where the good news stops for the Falcons. The Texans and Colts are both rated much lower in DVOA than their record would suggest because of a weak schedule and a lot of close call wins.

The same is true for the 13-3 Falcons, who rank 10th in regular DVOA and 13th in weighted. They have played just 2 playoff teams and they have 7 wins by 7 points or fewer. They did beat both of the playoff teams they played, but those games were in weeks 2 and 5 respectively against teams that are better now than they were then. The beat the Broncos by 6 when Peyton Manning was still getting his bearings back and they beat the Redskins by 7 in a game in which Robert Griffin actually left with an injury.

They also have won their last 3 games by more than 7 points, snapping a streak in which 6 of their 7 wins were close calls. However, they’ve also lost twice to non-playoff teams in that stretch. The loss to an underrated Panthers team wasn’t that bad and for a while it looked like it woke them up (they beat the Giants 34-0 the following week, a win that’s not as impressive as it once seemed, but still pretty impressive), but a home loss to the Buccaneers last week killed their momentum. The Falcons didn’t rest starters in that one either and that loss came at home to a team that had previously lost 5 straight, including 2 in blowout fashion.

It’s true that game didn’t really mean anything to the Falcons, but at the very least it snapped their momentum. Since 1989, 17 teams have lost week 17 before having a first round bye. 7 of them have lost their very first playoff game (meanwhile, teams who win week 17 and then have a playoff bye are 16-9 in that same time period). Think about it, when the Falcons take the field in the divisional round, their last win will have come 3 weeks prior, while their opponent won a game the week prior. We know how big momentum is in the playoffs. There’s a reason why Super Bowl teams frequently come out of wild card weekend. And right now, the Falcons don’t have it.

Their home field advantage should propel them to a win over the road challenged Seahawks or the inferior Redskins, but the Packers and 49ers could both easily beat them in the NFC Championship game. Both of those teams are superior to the Falcons and if the Cardinals, Raiders, Panthers, and Cowboys can all almost beat the Falcons at home, the Packers and 49ers can both finish the job. Matt Ryan will get his playoff win, but I think that one will be it.

Projected fate: Lose to Packers in NFC Championship

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