Falcons

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-5)

These two teams had very different weeks last week, with the Patriots beating the Browns by 38 and the Falcons losing to the Cowboys by 40. Typically, a team who gets blown out fares better the following week against the spread than a team that wins by a wide margin, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed after a blowout loss and, as a result, cover the spread at a 58.1% rate. However, I am not sure that fully applies here with the Falcons as, while they could easily be overlooked by the Patriots and they could play a much more focused game after being embarrassed, they also aren’t undervalued by the oddsmakers.

This spread has shifted up to a full touchdown from the four points the Patriots were favored by on the early line last week and normally I like to fade a significant line movement like that, as it tends to be an overreaction to a single week of play, but, in this case, I think the line is still too low, as the line was too low to begin with and a significant shift was justified after the results of last week’s games. The Patriots’ win was even more impressive than most realize because, like the Patriots, the Browns are legitimately a few plays away from having 2-3 more wins and, coming into last week’s game, the Browns were one of just two teams in the league to rank in the top-10 in first down rate, yards per play, first down rate allowed, and yards per play allowed. 

Meanwhile, the Falcons’ loss was even more concerning than most realize because the Falcons have faced a very easy schedule overall this season and now have been blown out by two of the three teams they have faced with a winning record, with the exception being a win over the Saints, who are starting a backup quarterback. Aside from their win over the Saints, the Falcons’ wins have come against teams who are a combined 8-20 on the season, with none possessing a record better than 3-6.

Six of the Falcons’ nine results this season would have covered this seven point spread, but the Patriots are much more in line with the three teams who beat the Falcons by multiple scores (Eagles, Buccaneers, and Cowboys) than the teams the Falcons have played closely or beaten (Saints, Washington, Panthers, Jets, Giants, and Dolphins). Their loss to the Buccaneers could have been closer had it not been for two pick sixes, but they also lost the first down rate battle by 7.11% in that game. Overall, the Falcons rank 27th, 22nd, and 32nd in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency, while the Patriots rank 13th, 6th, and 8th. 

Despite their records being somewhat similar, this is a matchup between a team in the top quarter of the league and a team in the bottom and my calculated line has the Patriots favored by 10 in this game, so even with the significant line movement up to seven, we are still getting value with the Patriots. It’s not quite enough line value to bet the Patriots, who could still be in a bad spot against a team who was just blown out and, as a result, could bounce back with one of their best efforts of the season, but if this line moves down to 6.5 before gametime or if Falcons feature back Cordarrelle Patterson, currently a game-time decision, is ruled out, I would recommend betting the Patriots. I will have an update if either of those things happen.

Update: This line has dropped to 6.5 across the board despite it looking unlikely that Cordarrelle Patterson will play. I am going to lock this in now because it could go back up after Patterson is ruled out and even if he plays I like New England enough to bet them.

New England Patriots 27 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: New England -6.5

Confidence: Medium

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (4-4) at Dallas Cowboys (6-2)

The Cowboys shockingly lost at home to the Broncos last week, in Dak Prescott’s return, a week after they went into Minnesota and beat a quality team with an inexperienced backup quarterback under center. I wouldn’t put too much stock in that one loss though, as the Cowboys were likely just flat after a big effort with a backup quarterback under center the week before. Even with Prescott missing a game and the Cowboys struggling in his first game back, Dallas still ranks 1st in offensive efficiency on the season.

I wish Dallas’ loss had triggered a bigger line movement though, especially with the Falcons winning in upset fashion in New Orleans, but this line only moved from Dallas -9.5 on the early line to Dallas -8.5 this week. The Cowboys also lost talented edge defender Randy Gregory to injury in the past week, which is another reason this line could have shifted. However, we are actually still getting some line value with the Cowboys, even without Gregory, as I have them calculated as 11-point favorites over a Falcons team that only has a 4-4 record because of a very easy schedule.

The Falcons’ win against the Saints last week was just their second game of the season against a team with a winning record and they were only able to beat the Saints in a close game because the Saints were starting a backup quarterback and were likely flat after a big upset win over the Buccaneers the week before. The Falcons’ other wins have come against the Giants, Dolphins, and Jets, three of the worst teams in the league, and their margin of victory is just a combined 14 points across their four wins, with their four losses coming by a combined 59 points, giving them the 8th worst point differential in the league, despite a weak schedule. 

Unless Dallas is flat again, the Falcons should have a hard time keeping up and, if either of these teams are flat this week, I would expect it to be the Falcons, who are coming off of that big win over the Saints last week, pulling the upset as touchdown underdogs. Teams cover at just a 43.1% rate all-time after a win as underdogs of a touchdown or more against a divisional opponent. I wish we were getting a little bit better of a line, but I don’t expect this game to be close, so the Cowboys are worth a bet this week.

Dallas Cowboys 37 Atlanta Falcons 24

Pick against the spread: Dallas -8.5

Confidence: Medium

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-2)

The Saints got a huge home win over the Buccaneers last week, but they still had a significant loss in that game, as quarterback Jameis Winston is now out for the season after tearing his ACL, leaving veteran journeyman backup Trevor Siemian under center. Siemian led the win in relief of Winston last week, but the Saints also won the turnover battle by 3 and had a pick six, which is not a sustainable way to win games, and they lost the yards per play battle by 2.3, which is much more predictive. 

The Saints are in many ways healthier than they have been for most of the season, with a pair of talented offensive linemen in Terron Armstead and Erik McCoy and a trio of defensive starters in Marcus Davenport, David Onyemata, and Kwon Alexander back in the lineup after significant absences, but the downgrade at quarterback will hurt them. Despite that, this line has moved up from favoring the Saints by 5.5 on the early line last week to favoring them by 6 this week, as the public bought into the Saints’ win over the Buccaneers.

The Saints are also unlikely to have the same effort this week as they had last week, now coming off of an emotional home victory, as teams cover at just a 41.4% rate all-time after a win as home underdogs of 4 points or more. It could be especially tough for the Saints to focus this week because last week’s win came against a tough divisional foe, while this week they face a sub-.500 Falcons team. The Saints also have to turn around and face the Titans next week and favorites of 6 or more cover at just a 44.1% rate all-time before facing an opponent whose winning percentage is 30% better than their current opponent’s winning percentage.

We aren’t really getting line value with the Falcons, who have faced just one team with a winning record and whose three wins came by a combined 12 points against teams that are a combined 5-18, but the Saints’ quarterback situation and general lack of an explosive passing game makes it hard to justify them being favored by this many points against anyone other than the worst teams in the league and the Falcons don’t quite qualify. Even if we aren’t getting much line value, the Falcons are worth a small play at +6 because of how bad of a spot the Saints are in.

New Orleans Saints 20 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +6

Confidence: Medium

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: 2021 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (3-4) at Atlanta Falcons (3-3)

Both of these teams have won three games each, but that has more to do with who they have played than either team being good or even average. The Falcons’ three wins came against the Giants, Jets, and Dolphins, who are a combined 4-16, and none of them came by more than one score, while their three losses have come by a combined 53 points, even though the Buccaneers are the only team the Falcons have played who are .500 or better, having faced one of the easiest schedules in the league overall.

The Panthers, meanwhile, got their three wins in the first three weeks of the season, but two of those wins came against the Jets and Texans, who are among the worst teams in the league, and the Panthers have lost all four games since then by a combined 39 points, even though they faced just one winning team (Dallas) over that stretch. The Panthers have faced the tougher schedule overall and their week 2 win over the Saints is the only win either of these two teams has against even a decent team, but neither of these teams has an impressive resume.

The Falcons have had success more recently than the Panthers, which has led to this line shifting from favoring the Falcons by 2 points on the early line last week to 3 points this week, a significant shift given that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, but the Panthers have played better statistically across the whole season, ranking 28th, 6th, and 27th in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency respectively, as opposed to 24th, 30th, and 31st for the Falcons. 

The Panthers’ recent struggles have largely been the result of significant injury absences, most notably feature back Christian McCaffrey, top linebacker Shaq Thompson, and top cornerback Jaycee Horn, but, while McCaffrey remains out, Thompson seems likely to return this week, while recently acquired cornerback Stephon Gilmore will make his debut, which should at least offset the loss of Horn and which could be a big upgrade for this defense if he is anything close to his top form. 

The Panthers are also in a better spot than the Falcons, desperate to bounce back off of last week’s embarrassing loss to the Giants, while the Falcons have to turn around and face the Saints in New Orleans next week. Teams cover at just a 41.1% rate all-time at home in a divisional matchup against a team with a sub .500 record before going on the road and facing another divisional opponent with a record better than .500. There isn’t quite enough here for the Panthers to be worth betting, but if Thompson plays I may reconsider.

Update: Thompson and Gilmore are playing, while Calvin Ridley is a surprise inactive for the Falcons for personal reasons. Lock in +3 while you can. I would not bet +2.5. The money line at +130 makes sense as well.

Carolina Panthers 24 Atlanta Falcons 23 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Carolina +3

Confidence: Medium

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (2-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-5)

This is one of the toughest games of the week from a spread standpoint, with the Falcons favored by 2 points. Not only does my calculated line of Atlanta -1 not give us any real line value with either side, but the Dolphins have three key players that are legitimately questionable, with wide receiver Devante Parker and their two best cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones all seemingly gametime calls, after being significantly limited in practice this week.

The Dolphins have one of the worst rosters in the league, have the 2nd worst point differential in the league (-78), and could easily be 0-6 if not for the Patriots losing a pair of fumbles in a 1-point Miami victory, so the absence of up to three above average or better starters would be significant. If all three are active, I will probably be on the Dolphins, but I am taking the Falcons for now and depending on the status of all three of the aforementioned players, it’s possible I could like the Falcons more than a little bit.

Update: Parker is out, but Howard and Jones will both play. I will leave this as a no confidence pick in favor of the Falcons.

Atlanta Falcons 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -2

Confidence: None

New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (1-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-3) in London

The Jets won their first game of the season last week, knocking off a very banged up Titans team in an overtime upset victory, but they might have trouble bringing that same energy for this week’s game in London against the Falcons. The Jets won as 6-point home underdogs last week and teams cover at just a 41.0% rate after a win as home underdogs of 4.5 or more, as teams tend to be flat off of an emotional upset win. That could be made even worse by the fact that the Jets have to travel all the way to London for a matchup with a fellow 1-3 team.

The Falcons are also the slightly better team, despite both teams having mediocre records, as I have them about 3 points better, even without top wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who will miss this game. The Jets still come in as the 4th worst team in my roster rankings, despite narrowly winning their first game of the season. This line, favoring the Falcons by 2.5 points on a neutral site, isn’t too far off, but it’s also a good rule of thumb to pick the favorite in international games, as they have gone 25-13 ATS, which makes sense, given that the better team is probably better equipped to deal with playing a game after an unusual week. There isn’t enough here for the Falcons to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Atlanta Falcons 24 New York Jets 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -2.5

Confidence: Low

Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Washington Football Team (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

Washington is 1-2 with their only win coming by just 1 point over the Giants at home, but they are still a little overrated, favored by 2 points on the road in Atlanta, against a Falcons team that I have just a half point worse than Washington in my roster rankings. Both teams are mediocre, but the public hasn’t caught on to the fact that Washington’s defense isn’t as good as a year ago. They still have their dominant defensive line, but their back seven isn’t nearly as good as a year ago. Overall, this defense isn’t good enough to carry an offense that is starting a backup quarterback and that has a noticeably worse offensive line than a year ago. There isn’t quite enough here for the Falcons to be worth betting against the spread, but the money line at +110 is a good value because the Falcons should be no worse than 50/50 to win this game at home.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Washington Football Team 23 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +2

Confidence: Low

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (0-2) at New York Giants (0-2)

This line favors the Giants by a field goal at home, suggesting these two teams are about even, but I think this line is off and the Giants are the better team. Their biggest weakness is their offensive line, which might be the worst in the league, but the Falcons are among the least equipped teams to take advantage of that, with one of the worst pass rushes in the league, as part of a terrible overall defense. If the Giants can control the line of scrimmage at least somewhat, they should be able to move the ball with ease in this game, with Daniel Jones supported by an improved skill position group from a year ago. 

Jones is an underrated quarterback because he played a brutal schedule last season (nine matchups against top-10 defenses in his first ten games), before suffering a hamstring injury that limited him severely and would have kept many quarterbacks out for several weeks. Jones then started this season with back-to-back tough defenses in the Broncos and Washington, but now he gets to face one of the worst defenses in the league and should be able to have a strong game, coming off one of the best games of his career in a near loss against Washington’s defense.

The Giants also have a solid defense and are overall a much more well rounded team than the Falcons, who don’t do anything particularly well, with even their once solid passing game taking a hit this year with Julio Jones gone and Matt Ryan seemingly on the decline at least a little bit. Add in that the Giants have extra rest off of Thursday Night Football and there is enough here to bet on them confidently as long as this line doesn’t exceed a field goal.

New York Giants 27 Atlanta Falcons 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -3

Confidence: Medium

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0)

The Buccaneers nearly lost at home to the Cowboys week one, but they also won that game despite losing the turnover margin by three, which only happens about 11.3% of the time. Turnover margin is one of the least predictable metrics week-to-week and, had the Buccaneers had an even turnover margin in week one, they likely would have won by multiple scores, against a decent Cowboys team. 

With that in mind, they should be able to easily win by multiple scores against a Falcons team that is one of the five worst in the league. This line isn’t high enough at 12.5, as the Falcons really have no strengths as a team with Julio Jones gone, Matt Ryan declining, and the rest of the roster no better than a year ago. This should be an easy blowout for the Buccaneers. I don’t want to make a huge play on this one because the line is so high and the Buccaneers could always take their foot off in the second half with a big lead, but the Buccaneers are still worth a bet at 12.5.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -12.5

Confidence: Medium

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)

Both of these teams are likely to miss the post-season, but the Falcons have the slight edge. That is reflected in this line, which favors them at home by 3.5, which is right around my calculated line. I have gone into both of these two teams in depth in my season previews, so I don’t feel there is anything more I have to say about either team in a game that is a coin flip from a spread perspective. My numbers have the Falcons as marginally more likely to cover, but there is nothing to bet on here.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Philadelphia Eagles 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -3.5

Confidence: None