Giants

New York Giants at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Giants, Rams, Uncategorized

New York Giants (5-9) at St. Louis Rams (6-8)

This line is off. The Rams are 6.5 point favorites here at home despite the fact that the Giants rank better in rate of moving the chains differential. The Giants rank 16th, moving them at a 72.33% rate, as opposed to 72.52% for their opponents, a differential of -0.19%. Meanwhile, the Rams come in at 20th, moving the chains at a 69.15% rate, as opposed to 70.12% for their opponents, a differential of -0.97%. On top of that, the Giants historically don’t have as much trouble, relatively, away from home as the rest of the league. Since 2004, the Giants are 52-42 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.20 points per game, as opposed to 51-40 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.74 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally worse on the road (about 3 points), but the line has never really adapted to compensate.

Neither of these teams is in a great spot with the Rams going to take on the Seahawks in Seattle next week and the Giants heading home to take on the Eagles. Non-divisional home favorites are 89-108 ATS before being divisional road underdogs since 2002, while non-divisional road underdogs are 61-83 ATS before being divisional home underdogs over that same time period. However, the Rams are in the worst spot as they are projected to be double digit underdogs next week (the early line is Seattle -10). Teams are 47-87 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. The Giants are projected to be 3 point home underdogs and teams are 64-98 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ home underdogs, but the Rams still have the more powerful trend working against them. The Giants should be the right side.

St. Louis Rams 20 New York Giants 19

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Washington Redskins at New York Giants: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Commanders, Giants, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (3-10) at New York Giants (4-9)

One of the most powerful trends says that teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover the spread as 6+ point favorites about a quarter of the time historically, which makes a lot of sense. The problem with this trend is it’s often very hard to know whether or not a team favored by 6 or more is actually going to finish 6-10 or worse. Here, it’s pretty clear. The Giants sit at 4-9 and would need to win their final 3 games to finish better than 6-10, which seems unlikely as they’d need to pull upsets against the Rams and Eagles in week 16 and week 17 respectively. Despite that, they are favored by a touchdown here.

This line is way too high. Even if I didn’t know about that trend, I’d think this line was off. The Giants rank 18th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.56% rate, as opposed to 72.82% for their opponents, a differential of -0.26%. Meanwhile, the Redskins rank 25th, moving the chains at a 70.40% rate, as opposed to 72.44% for their opponents, a differential of -2.04%. On top of that, the Giants haven’t really had much of a homefield advantage over the past decade or so. Since 2004, the Giants are 52-42 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.20 points per game, as opposed to 50-40 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home (about 3 points), but the line has never really adapted to compensate.

This isn’t unique to the Giants, as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average recently. At home, the NFC East is 73-85 since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of0.67 points per game and going 59-96 ATS. On the road, they are 77-80, getting outscored by an average of 2.00 points per game and going 83-72 ATS. As you can imagine, road teams in NFC East divisional games tend to do well, going 25-14 ATS over that time period as divisional road underdogs. We’re getting a significant amount of line value with the Redskins.

Going off of that, the Giants won as 3.5 point underdogs in Washington earlier this season. That puts them in a bad spot this week, as divisional home favorites are 25-49 ATS since 2002 against a divisional opponent that they previously beat as road underdogs during that same regular season. It’s a weird trend and it’s a little complicated, but it makes sense when you think about it. In divisional matchups where the homefield advantage decides who is the favorite, generally those two teams are essentially even. Divisional opponents that are essentially even generally split the season series. That seems to happen even if the road team pulls the upset in the first matchup, as the road underdog wins about half the time (39-38) in the rematch and covers at that aforementioned 2/3rds rate.

The Redskins have had a rough 2 week stretch, losing by a combined score of 73-27, including a 24-0 home loss last week. Teams generally do well off of rough stretches like that. Teams are 41-23 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more and 40-25 ATS since 1989 off of a home game in which they didn’t score any points. It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. I can’t say for sure that they’ll be overlooked or embarrassed, but they probably will be and they’re definitely undervalued, I talked about this earlier.

On top of what I’ve said already, this line was 3.5 a week ago so it moved 3.5 points, which is a huge overreaction. I love fading huge line movements whenever it makes sense and it definitely does here. In spite of that, the public is all over the Giants and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they always lose money in the long run, as it makes sense here. The only thing working against the Redskins is the fact that they have another tough game coming up with a home game against the Eagles on deck. Teams are 60-94 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, including 31-65 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs. However, the Giants have a tough game in St. Louis on deck as well and there’s just too much stuff in Washington’s favor this week to ignore. They’re my Pick of the Week.

Washington Redskins 20 New York Giants 17 Upset Pick +245

Pick against the spread: Washington +7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New York Giants at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Giants, Titans, Uncategorized

New York Giants (3-9) at Tennessee Titans (2-10)

The Giants typically cover the spread on the road in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. Since 2004, the Giants are 51-42 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.52 points per game, as opposed to 50-40 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home (about 3 points), but the line has never really adapted to compensate. As a result, they are 55-38 ATS on the road over that time period, including 14-8 ATS as non-divisional road favorites, as they are here.

Giants are in their 2nd straight road game this week, which is an added benefit. Teams are 44-31 ATS as road favorites off a road loss since 2008, including 36-26 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 188-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game, as opposed to 266-382 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.35 points per game.

The Giants lost last week in Jacksonville on the road, but they lead early 21-0 and only lost because they lost the turnover battle by 3 and the return touchdown battle by 2. Despite that, they still only lost by 1 (as 2.5 point favorites). The Jaguars lost the chain game by a significant amount, moving them at a 67.86% rate, while the Giants moved them at a 71.43% rate. The Giants probably win that game 80-85% of the game and probably cover about 75% of the time.

Now they face an even easier opponent than Jacksonville as the Titans have been horrible this season and they do so as even smaller favorites (1 point) and in their 2nd straight road game. The Titans rank 31st, moving the chains at a 67.77% rate, as opposed to 76.72% for their opponents, a differential of -8.95%, while the Giants rank 21st, moving the chains at a 72.93% rate, as opposed to 74.27% for their opponents, a differential of -1.43%. I like the Giants’ chances of winning straight up here in Tennessee and I have confidence in them as mere 1 point favorites.

New York Giants 27 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -1

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Giants, Jaguars, Uncategorized

New York Giants (3-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10)

At first glance, as bad as the Jaguars are, this line does make sense. The Jaguars rank 30th, moving the chains at a 65.53% rate, as opposed to 73.01% for their opponents, a differential of -7.48%. However, the Giants aren’t exactly great, moving the chains at a 73.08% rate, as opposed to 74.79% for their opponents, a differential of 1.71% that ranks 21st in the NFL. That suggests that this line (2.5 or 3 depending on where you go it) is right around where it should be.

However, that doesn’t take into account that the Giants are typically cover the spread on the road in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. Since 2004, the Giants are 51-41 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 50-40 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home (about 3 points), but the odds makers have never really caught on to that. As a result, they are 55-37 ATS on the road over that time period, including 14-7 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs, as they are here.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, are in a bad spot with the Texans coming to town next. Non-divisional home underdogs are 33-53 ATS since 1989 before being divisional home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 57-89 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, I think it’s both. The Jaguars are a bad team and could easily be distracted by a divisional opponent coming to town next week and overlook this random non-conference opponent.

The only reason this isn’t a higher confidence pick is that the public is all over the Giants at an alarming rate. I hate siding with heavy publicly backed sides because the odds makers always make money in the long run. The public doesn’t see how the Giants could not win by 3 or more and this could very well be a trap game because it’s too good to be true. There are enough reasons for me to side with the public with this one, but I’m worried I’m missing something. This is a medium confidence pick at 2.5 and a low confidence pick at 3.

New York Giants 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: NY Giants -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (7-3) at New York Giants (3-7)

One of the more powerful trends says that road favorites of 3 or more are incredibly dominant off of a bye, going 40-12 ATS since 2002, including 21-4 ATS in divisional matchups, like this one here. It makes sense. The Cowboys are a significantly better team than the Giants and should be very well prepared for this game with 2 weeks off and take care of business. On the season, they move the chains at a 76.01% rate, as opposed to 72.54% for their opponents, a differential of 3.48% that ranks 10th in the NFL. The Giants, meanwhile, rank 22nd, moving the chains at a 71.87% rate, as opposed to 74.45% for their opponents, a differential of -2.59%.

The Giants also don’t have quite the same homefield advantage as most teams do, at least they haven’t in recent history. In the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, since 2004, the Giants are 51-41 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 50-39 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.71 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home. This isn’t unique to them as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average. At home, the NFC East is 72-81 since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.96 points per game and going 57-93 ATS. On the road, they are 73-77, getting outscored by an average of 2.37 points per game and going 79-69 ATS. As you can imagine, road teams in NFC East divisional games tend to do well, going 31-22 ATS over that time period. The Cowboys are already a perfect 4-0 on the road this season and looking to push it to 5-0 this week.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a bigger play on Dallas. One, Dallas has to play Philadelphia in 4 days on Thanksgiving. Favorites are 36-58 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. Two, on the other hand, the Giants have an easy game in Jacksonville where they are currently projected to be 3.5 point favorites. Teams are 85-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more and home underdogs are 68-42 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. They don’t have the same upcoming distraction that the Cowboys have. However, I still like Dallas as big road favorites off of a bye in a place that hasn’t had a ton of homefield advantage recently.

Dallas Cowboys 34 New York Giants 24

Pick against the spread: Dallas -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, 49ers, Giants, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (5-4) at New York Giants (3-6)

The 49ers won last week in emotional fashion in New Orleans. You’d think that would put them in a bad spot for this week, but it historically hasn’t, as teams are 70-44 ATS off of an overtime win as underdogs of 3 or more since 1989, including 48-28 ATS when that overtime win was on the road. On top of that, the 49ers are in a good spot as they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. Teams tend to adjust to the road in their 2nd of two road games. Going off of that, road favorites are 49-33 ATS off of a road win since 2008.

The Giants, meanwhile, are in a bad spot as they have a tough game at home next week against the Cowboys. Teams are 14-29 ATS as non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional home underdogs since 2002. Going off of that, teams are 56-85 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more and the early line is currently 4. The Giants haven’t been great at home in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era anyway. In the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, since 2004, the Giants are 51-41 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 49-37 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.81 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home.

The 49ers are a West Coast team playing a 1 PM ET game on the East Coast here, which is usually a bad spot for teams, but they are 5-0 ATS in this spot since Jim Harbaugh took over in 2011. That’s a small sample size, but it’s definitely worth noting. The 49ers also have had a lot of success in the Jim Harbaugh era as favorites of 3 or more, going 25-16 ATS in that spot since 2011, including 11-5 ATS on the road. They should be the right side here as 4 point favorites.

San Francisco 49ers 27 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -4

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Giants, Seahawks, Uncategorized

New York Giants (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (5-3)

The Seahawks have fallen flat at home in their previous 2 home games, losing as big home favorites to the Cowboys and then beating the lowly Raiders by just 6 points last week as 14 point favorites. However, I still really like them at home. I don’t think those 2 games erase their extensive recent history of home dominance. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 44-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 42-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.47 points per game.

This is opposed to a 24-41 record away from home (28-36-1 ATS), getting outscored by 3.75 points per game. This home dominance has been even more pronounced over the past 3 seasons, since the start of the Russell Wilson era, as they’ve gone 20-2 straight up and 15-7 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 14.09 points per game at home and beating the spread by an average of 7.57 points per game.

The Seahawks’ relative struggles in their last 2 home games are giving us good value here with the Seahawks as they are just 8 point favorites over the Giants. Remember, they were 7.5 point favorites over the Packers, who are much better than the Giants, earlier this season and the Seahawks won very easily. Obviously, the Seahawks haven’t been playing as well recently as they were to start the season, but they’re getting both Max Unger and Russell Okung back from injury, while Byron Maxwell is listed as questionable to return.

Unger, their best offensive lineman, has been out since week 5. Okung missed last week. Maxwell has been out since week 6. They’re getting healthier and I expect them to be playing with a little bit more of a chip on their shoulders this week as they’re kind of getting lost in the Super Bowl contenders discussion. They’re also in a good spot as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites, with a trip to Kansas City on deck. Teams are 80-52 ATS in that situation since 2008. The Seahawks should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 27 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: Seattle -8

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Colts, Giants, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (5-3) at New York Giants (3-4)

The Colts surprisingly lost in Pittsburgh last week by the final score of 51-34 as 3.5 point favorites. This week, they are once again 3.5 point road favorites here in New York against the Giants, but I think the result will be different for four reasons. The first reason is that Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano, as is the case with most good quarterback/head coach combinations, have been great off a loss, going 10-1 ATS since they both took over in 2012.

Two, the Giants are in a bad spot going to Seattle next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are 40-84 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. I think it’s the former here.

Three, I think last week’s loss was a fluke as the Colts are still a very good team. Who knows how the game would have gone differently if Vontae Davis (who should be fine this week) didn’t leave with injury. I don’t think they lose in Pittsburgh more than 20 times out of 100 and I think the same is true here this week in New York. Even with last week’s result, the Colts still rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 78.50% rate, as opposed to 71.77% for their opponents, a differential of 6.73%. Meanwhile, the Giants rank 17th, moving the chains at a 73.91% rate, as opposed to 73.73% for their opponents, a differential of 0.18%.

Four, the Colts are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. Going off of that, road favorites are 31-28 ATS off of a road loss since 2008 as long as it’s the 2nd of two road favorites, including 15-8 ATS as road favorites off of a loss as road favorites. The Colts should be the right side here.

Indianapolis Colts 31 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (3-3) at Dallas Cowboys (5-1)

The Giants got blown out in Philadelphia last week, but that actually bodes well for their chances of covering the spread this week, as the Giants are road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 106-69 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 90-47 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 176-181 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.06 points per game, as opposed to 251-357 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.23 points per game.

In spite of their loss in Philadelphia last week, the Giants are historically very good on the road.  Since the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning in 2004, they are 55-35 ATS on the road, including 36-22 ATS as road underdogs, 16-8 ATS as divisional road underdogs, and 11-4 ATS as divisional road underdogs of 3.5 or more. The opposite is true of Dallas. The Cowboys are 12-23 ATS as home favorites since 2009, including 5-12 ATS as home favorites of 6.5 or more. This isn’t just a Dallas/NY Giants thing. NFC East teams are just 19-34 ATS as divisional home favorites since 2008.

Picking the Giants also gives us an opportunity to fade a significant line movement, as this line was 3.5 a week ago and now it’s 6.5. I understand the things that happened last week might seem worthy of a 3 point line movement, the Victor Cruz injury, the Giants’ blowout loss, the Cowboys’ win in Seattle, but I don’t think this line should have moved this much based on one week’s results. The Cowboys could easily be overconfident as favorites off of that win last week (they’re just 3-15 ATS as favorites off a win since 2010 anyway), while the Giants will be embarrassed and want to redeem themselves. I like their chances of bouncing back.

Dallas Cowboys 24 New York Giants 23

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6.5

Confidence: High

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New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Eagles, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (3-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-1)

The Eagles are 4-1, but they are a fraudulent 4-1. Of their 4 wins, 3 of them have come by 6 or less and 2 of them have come by 3 or less. The other one was a home game against the Jaguars. They also have 6 return touchdowns, as opposed to just 11 offensive touchdowns. If you take those return touchdowns out of the equation, they would have a -18 point differential, which would be 5th worst in the NFC. They rank just 24th in rate of moving the chains differential at -3.29%. They are moving the chains at just a 69.94% rate, as opposed to 73.22% for their opponents.

The biggest problem with their offense is that they are averaging 3.79 yards per carry on the ground, including just 2.90 yards per carry from LeSean McCoy. The issue is the offensive line as both Evan Mathis and Jason Kelce, Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked guard and center respectively in 2013, are out for an extended period of time. Those are arguably the two best run blocking offensive linemen in the NFL. Also, Nick Foles’ mechanics and accuracy have been a best, as the 2nd year starter has regressed and ranked as Pro Football Focus’ 31st ranked quarterback out of 35 eligible. Neither of those two problems is going to correct itself any time soon.

The Giants, meanwhile, are a much better team. They rank 8th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.70% rate, as opposed to a 72.67% rate for their opponents, a differential of 4.04%. Even though Philadelphia has the better record and they are less than field goal favorites here at home (2.5), we’re still getting significant line value with the Giants. That line also isn’t taking into account that the Giants very dangerous on the road. Since the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning in 2004, they are 55-34 ATS on the road, including 36-21 ATS as road underdogs, and 16-7 ATS as divisional road underdogs.

The Eagles are also in a bad spot. Home favorites of 6 or more cover the spread at a very high rate going into the bye (about 75%), but it’s the exact opposite for home favorites of all other amounts as home favorites of 1-5.5 are 34-59 ATS since 2002 going into a bye. They’re also 27-43 ATS at home since 2006, including 8-18 ATS in divisional games at home. I love the Giants to pull the upset and they are my Pick of the Week as 2.5 point underdogs.

New York Giants 27 Philadelphia Eagles 20 Upset Pick +130

Pick against spread: NY Giants -2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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