Jaguars

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (2-11) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11)

This is the worst game of the year. Both of these two teams rank in the bottom-3 in rate of moving the chains differential and have for most of the season. This is the only game this year between two teams that bad. And thanks to the NFL’s rule that everyone get a primetime game, we have to watch this game instead of one of the 14 games that features at least one team still mathematically alive in the playoff race.

Believe it or not, one of these teams is actually better than the other one. Jacksonville is noticeably, but though not really significantly better than the Titans. The Jaguars rank 30th, moving the chains at a 64.76% rate, as opposed to 72.69% for their opponents, a differential of -7.92%, while the Titans rank 31st, moving the chains at a 66.15% rate, as opposed to 75.47% for their opponents, a differential of -9.32% that is over a percentage point worse than Jacksonville’s. Despite that, this line says these two teams are even, so we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Jaguars.

However, I’m not taking the Jaguars, because they’re in a horrible spot. They have to go to Houston next week where they will be road underdogs. Divisional home favorites are 20-53 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs, which is one of the most powerful trends there is. Meanwhile, Tennessee is on an 8 game losing streak (last winning week 6 against these Jaguars). Teams tend to cover on long losing streaks, going 64-40 ATS since 1989 off of 8+ straight losses.

It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. They’re not undervalued, but they could be overlooked and embarrassed. I’m not confident in the Titans though because they’re in a bad spot with a home game with the Colts on deck. Teams are 64-98 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ home underdogs, including 34-69 ATS before being 4+ home underdogs, and 12-25 ATS before being 7+ home underdogs. The Titans seem like the right side though.

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 Tennessee Titans 16

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Low

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Ravens, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) at Baltimore Ravens (8-5)

Baltimore is generally very good at home. Since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 45-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.38 points per game, at home, as opposed to 34-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.24 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9 points. However, while they are 22-12 ATS as home underdogs or home favorites of 7 or more, they are just 9-12 ATS as home favorites of more than 7.

The Ravens are also in a bad spot as they are non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, a situation teams are 78-109 ATS in since 2008. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 123-94 ATS since 2002. Combining the two, teams are 62-38 ATS since 2012 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. The early line of the Ravens’ game in Houston next week is only Houston -1 so the Ravens won’t definitely be underdogs, but the logic still stands. While the Ravens have a much more important game next week on the road against a team still alive in the playoff race, the Jaguars have arguably their easiest game of the season, as they will be favored for the first time all year at home for the Titans.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 19

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +14

Confidence: Medium

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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)

Both teams are in terrible spots here. The Jaguars have to go to Baltimore next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs and teams are 44-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. Meanwhile, the Texans have to go to Indianapolis next week, where they are projected to be 7 point underdogs. Favorites of 6 or more are just 46-80 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more since 2002. Even worse, teams are 17-32 ATS since 1989 as road favorites of 4+ before being road underdogs of 4+.

I’m taking the Jaguars because this line is too high and the public is all over Houston. This line has shifted from 3.5 to 6 from last week to this week. I love fading a huge line movement whenever it makes sense and I think it does here because this line should be right around where it was last week, according to rate of moving the chains differential. The Texans rank just 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 71.62% rate, as opposed to 73.00% for their opponents, a differential of -1.38%. Meanwhile, the Jaguars rank 30th, moving the chains at a 65.71% rate, as opposed to 72.87% for their opponents, a differential of -7.15%. I also love fading the public whenever it makes sense and I think it does here. I’m not confident in Jacksonville though.

Houston Texans 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +6

Confidence: None

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New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Giants, Jaguars, Uncategorized

New York Giants (3-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10)

At first glance, as bad as the Jaguars are, this line does make sense. The Jaguars rank 30th, moving the chains at a 65.53% rate, as opposed to 73.01% for their opponents, a differential of -7.48%. However, the Giants aren’t exactly great, moving the chains at a 73.08% rate, as opposed to 74.79% for their opponents, a differential of 1.71% that ranks 21st in the NFL. That suggests that this line (2.5 or 3 depending on where you go it) is right around where it should be.

However, that doesn’t take into account that the Giants are typically cover the spread on the road in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. Since 2004, the Giants are 51-41 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 50-40 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home (about 3 points), but the odds makers have never really caught on to that. As a result, they are 55-37 ATS on the road over that time period, including 14-7 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs, as they are here.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, are in a bad spot with the Texans coming to town next. Non-divisional home underdogs are 33-53 ATS since 1989 before being divisional home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 57-89 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, I think it’s both. The Jaguars are a bad team and could easily be distracted by a divisional opponent coming to town next week and overlook this random non-conference opponent.

The only reason this isn’t a higher confidence pick is that the public is all over the Giants at an alarming rate. I hate siding with heavy publicly backed sides because the odds makers always make money in the long run. The public doesn’t see how the Giants could not win by 3 or more and this could very well be a trap game because it’s too good to be true. There are enough reasons for me to side with the public with this one, but I’m worried I’m missing something. This is a medium confidence pick at 2.5 and a low confidence pick at 3.

New York Giants 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: NY Giants -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Colts, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4)

The Jaguars aren’t the worst team in the NFL, as the Raiders are winless at 0-10 and have looked really, really bad in the process, but they’ve still been horrible over the past two seasons. They have covered just 9 of their last 27 games, dating back to week 17 of 2012. Over those 27 games, they lost 17 of them by double digits and could easily make it 18 this week on the road against a very good Indianapolis team. On the season, the Jaguars are moving the chains at a 66.67% rate, as opposed to 72.87% for their opponents, a differential of -6.20% that ranks 30th in the NFL.

The Colts, meanwhile, rank 12th, moving the chains at a 77.30% rate, as opposed to 74.23% for their opponents, a differential of 3.06%. They’ve been even better at home, moving the chains at a 76.63% rate, as opposed to 70.13% for their opponents, a differential of 6.50%. This is nothing new as they are 14-7 ATS at home since 2012, when Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck came in. They lost last week at home against the Patriots, but that was obviously a much tougher opponent and they typically bounce back very well off of a loss in the Pagano/Luck era, as most good head coach/quarterback combinations do, going 12-1 ATS off of a loss since 2012.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, are in a bad spot with a home game against the Giants up next. Teams are 57-87 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more (the early line is NY Giants -3.5). That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, it’s definitely the latter. I like the Colts a good amount, even as two touchdown favorites.

Indianapolis Colts 38 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -14

Confidence: High

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Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars in London: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) in London

Tony Romo is back for the Cowboys this week after missing last week with a back bruise. Given that, we should be getting significant line value with the Cowboys as just 7 point favorites on a neutral field here in London over the Jaguars. Despite missing Romo last week in a pathetic showing against the Cardinals, the Cowboys still rank XX in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.71% rate, as opposed to 73.31% for their opponents, a differential of 3.41%.

On the opposite side, the Jaguars rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 66.67% rate, as opposed to 73.26% for their opponents, a differential of -6.60%. They have covered just 9 of their last 26 games, dating back to week 17 of 2012. Over those 26 games, they’ve lost 17 of them by double digits. On top of that, Dallas is also in the better spot here I think as they are favorites and actually in playoff contention. It’s a small sample size, but favorites are 6-4 ATS in London games, including 6-2 ATS in their last 8. It makes sense. Teams must hate travelling to London to play a game, but if you’re actually in contention it makes it easier to get up for this game. It doesn’t help Jacksonville’s morale that they have to give up a home game for this. Favorites also tend to be more organized teams capable of playing this type of game.

There are three reasons why this isn’t a bigger play on Dallas. One, it’s tough to judge how Romo will be coming off this kind of injury and if his supporting cast will give 100% against a bad team in another country with Romo now back. Two, I don’t really have any strong trends that suggest the Cowboys are the right side. Three, the Jaguars have been playing a lot better of late. Blake Bortles has proven to be an upgrade over Chad Henne at quarterback (which isn’t hard) and head coach Gus Bradley, the ex-Seahawks defensive coordinator, has this defense playing a lot better recently.

Over the past 6 games, since benching Henne, they are moving the chains at a 69.72% rate, as opposed to 68.64% for their opponents, a differential of 1.09%. That’s much better than their first 3 games, when they moved the chains at a 59.76% rate, as opposed to 79.83% for their opponents, a differential of -20.08%. The Cowboys should still beat them by more than a touchdown, but I’m not that confident.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Dallas -7

Confidence: Low

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bengals, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1)

Overall on the season, the Bengals really haven’t played well, as they rank way down at 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 71.36% rate, as opposed to 75.10% for their opponents, a differential of -3.74%. However, they’ve been much better at home, moving the chains at a 78.83% rate, as opposed to 73.28% for their opponents, a differential of 5.55%. This is nothing new for them as, since the start of last season, the Bengals are 11-1-1 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.85 points per game, going 11-2 against the spread.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 65.82% rate, as opposed to 72.73% for their opponents, a differential of -6.90%. Given that and how well the Bengals play at home, this 10.5 point line is justified, but we’re not getting the same kind of line value as we normally do with the Bengals at home because they’re still so overrated. They overall aren’t as good as their record and, while they are expected to get AJ Green back, there’s no guarantee he’ll be anything other than a decoy in his first game back from a toe injury. The Bengals are also missing several other key players, including Kevin Zeitler, Vontaze Burfict, and Giovani Bernard.

The Bengals are in a bad spot with a Thursday Night Game with the Browns coming up. Favorites are 35-56 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night Game. The Jaguars aren’t in a much better spot though with a game in London against the Cowboys on deck. Teams are 40-84 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs (the early line is currently 10.5). That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, I think it’s both. I’m going with the Bengals, but I’m not confident at all.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -10.5

Confidence: None 

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Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Jaguars are in a bad spot, having to go to Cincinnati next week where they will almost certainly be double digit underdogs (the early line is 11). Teams are 40-81 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. I think it’s both in this situation.

The Jaguars rank just 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 65.70% rate, as opposed to 73.13% for their opponents, a differential of -7.43%. They have covered just 8 of their last 24 games, dating back to week 17 of 2012. Over those 24 games, they lost 15 of them by double digits and could easily make it 16 this week against a solid Miami team. The Dolphins are moving the chains at a 73.63% rate, as opposed to 71.27% for their opponents, a differential of 2.36% that ranks 9th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around a touchdown, which gives us a little bit of line value with Miami -6.

On the other hand, the Jaguars have been playing much better football of late. Blake Bortles has proven to be an upgrade over Chad Henne at quarterback (which isn’t hard) and head coach Gus Bradley, the ex-Seahawks defensive coordinator, has this defense playing a lot better recently. They haven’t lost by double digits in any of their last 3 games (which is an accomplishment for this franchise) and they dominated a decent Browns team last week.

Over the past 4 games, since benching Henne, they are moving the chains at a 69.60% rate, as opposed to 65.74% for their opponents, a differential of 3.86%. That’s much better than their first 3 games, when they moved the chains at a 59.76% rate, as opposed to 79.83% for their opponents, a differential of -20.08%. On top of that, the Dolphins have a much tougher game next week against the Chargers back in Miami, where they could easily be home underdogs. Non-divisional road favorites are 22-40 since 1989 before being non-divisional home underdogs, as that upcoming game tends to be a major distraction. Even if that game has an even line (as the early line currently is) or the Dolphins are favored by 1-2 points, the logic still stands. I’m taking the Dolphins, but I’m not confident at all.

Miami Dolphins 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Miami -6

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Browns, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6)

There are reasons to take the Jaguars this week. Teams that are 0-5 or worse are 43-20 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of a loss of 1-8 points. The Jaguars almost got their first win of the season last week in a two point loss in Tennessee and they should be able to carry that into this week and give themselves a shot at their first win here. The Jaguars covered in a similar spot last week, after losing just by 8 to the Steelers a week before, with Pittsburgh requiring a late pick six to even get the margin to that.

The Jaguars have been playing a lot better since Blake Bortles took over as the starting quarterback. They covered last week and probably should have covered against both the Chargers and the Steelers. Over the past 3 games, the Jaguars are moving the chains at a 71.11% rate, as opposed to 72.50%, a differential of -1.39%. That’s as opposed to the first 3 games of the season, when they were moving the chains at a 59.76% rate, as opposed to 79.83% for their opponents, a differential of 20.08%. That’s not all Blake Bortles. Their defense has been playing significantly better too and that might not be sustainable, but there’s no denying they’ve been playing better football over the past 3 weeks.

However, it’s still really tough to trust the Jaguars. Teams are 49-77 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of three of more and 23-54 ATS in that same time period before being home underdogs of four or more. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, it’s definitely the latter. The Browns are a solid team deserving of being favored by 6 points here, the most the franchise has been favored by on the road since they returned to the NFL in 1999. They are moving the chains at a 76.83% rate, as opposed to 75.14% for their opponents, a differential of 1.68%, 11th in the NFL. I’m going with the Jaguars, but I’m not confident at all.

Cleveland Browns 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +6

Confidence: None

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Titans, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) at Tennessee Titans (1-4)

This is a game where I don’t want to pick either side. On one hand, the Titans might not deserve to be favored by 6 points against anyone, especially with Charlie Whitehurst likely under center again. They are 1-4. They rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 70.39% rate, as opposed to 76.80% for their opponents, a differential of 6.40%. They’re almost definitely going to finish 6-10 or worse and teams that finish that badly almost never cover as a favorite of 6 or more, doing so only about 25% of the time historically. It’s a powerful trend that can’t be used often because it refers to such rare cases and it’s tough to know how teams will finish, but it’s pretty clear that the Titans will not be going 6-5 to finish the season and finishing 7-9.

On the other hand, the Jaguars might be so bad that they’re the exception. They rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential and not only that but their over 9 percentage points worse than Tennessee, as bad as they are. They move the chains at a 62.69% rate, as opposed to 78.41% for their opponents, meaning they are simultaneously one of the worst defenses and the worst offenses in the NFL and they have a differential of -15.72%. They have covered just 6 of their last 22 games, dating back to week 17 of 2012. Over those 22 games, they lost 15 of them by double digits. The Titans aren’t good, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they were able to pull out a double digit win here at home.

Going off of that, the Jaguars are projected to be 4 point home underdogs next week for the Browns. Not only is that the most the Browns have been favored by on the road since they rejoined the NFL in 1999, which again highlights how bad these Jaguars are, but teams tend to struggle before being big home underdogs. Teams are 49-77 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of three of more and 23-54 ATS in that same time period before being home underdogs of four or more. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, it’s definitely the latter. The Jaguars are the side I’m going with, but I’m not confident in that at all.

Tennessee Titans 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +6

Confidence: None

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