Jets

New York Jets at New York Giants: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, Giants, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

New York Jets (6-5) at New York Giants (5-6)

This is technically a home game for the Giants, but considering they’re playing the Jets, with whom they share a stadium, it’s tough to consider this a true home game. The Giants’ season ticket holders will be there and the Giants will have control of the stadium (telling the fans to get loud and be quiet at the appropriate times), but there should also be plenty of Jets fans in the crowd and the Jets are probably going to be pretty comfortable waking up in their own beds and going to play a “road game” in MetLife Stadium.

I went back into the history of this matchup to see if the home team does noticeably better than the road team. Unfortunately, it’s a small sample size, as this is just the 7th time these teams have met since 1989. The road team is 2-4, getting outscored by 1.67 points per game, but the Giants have pretty much always dominated this matchup, winning 5 of 6 by an average of 7.50 points per game. That doesn’t really tell us much so I’m going to conservatively give the Giants one point for homefield advantage. The Giants have never had much of a homefield advantage anyway in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era (since 2004), going 54-43 (47-50 ATS) at home, outscoring opponents by 2.65 points per game, as opposed to 55-46 (60-40 ATS) on the road, getting outscored by 0.11 points per game.

While the Giants have traditionally dominated this matchup, the Jets are the better team right now. They rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants are all the way down in 24th. The Jets have outscored their opponents by 44 points on the season, with a +4 turnover margin, while the Giants have only managed +14 with a +10 turnover margin. It’s so tough to rely on winning the turnover margin every week, so I favor a team like the Jets over a team like the Giants by a lot.

The Jets are missing cornerback Darrelle Revis with a concussion for the 2nd straight week, but their offense was so much better last week with center Nick Mangold back and that can’t be ignored. Given that the Giants are only getting 1 point for homefield advantage, this line is way too low at 2. Anything up to a field goal is good value with the Jets, but about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so I wouldn’t venture beyond 3 with the Jets with any sort of confidence, in case this line starts to climb. I like them at 2 though.

New York Jets 23 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -2

Confidence: Medium

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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (4-6) at New York Jets (5-5)

This might sound weird considering they’re 5-5 and have struggled on offense, but the Jets actually rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential. It makes more sense when you consider two things. One, while their offense has really struggled, ranking 26th in rate of moving the chains, their defense has been really strong, ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential allowed. They have arguably the best defensive line in football with Sheldon Richardson, Leonard Williams, Muhammad Wilkerson, and Damon Harrison and cornerback Darrelle Revis is once again having a fantastic season. Two, there really aren’t any truly good teams outside of the top-4 (Arizona, New England, Cincinnati, and Carolina), so saying the Jets are 5th really just means they’re the best of the rest. They’re closer to the 14th ranked team than they are to the 4th ranked team. The league is really top heavy this year.

They’re a lot better than the Dolphins though, as the Dolphins rank 29th. Not a very good team to begin with, their defense has been awful since losing defensive end Cameron Wake for the season with a torn Achilles about a month ago. They’re also missing right tackle JuWuan James, while the Jets get key center Nick Mangold back from injury this week. Mangold has been in and out of the lineup over the past month with various injuries, which has really hurt their offense and coincided with their recent 1-4 stretch, but he’s healthy this week, after leaving last week’s contest with a hand laceration.

All that being said, I’m not going to put money on the Jets as mere 3.5 point favorites, for three reasons. The first reason is that close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, so I’m really worried about a backdoor cover. The second reason is that Darrelle Revis is out with a concussion and their secondary looks a lot worse without him. The third reason is that the Jets are in a terrible spot, as they will be underdogs against the Giants next week, while the Dolphins will be favored at home against the lowly Ravens. Favorites are 96-166 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. If this line goes down to 3, I may reconsider, but, for now, this is a low confidence pick.

New York Jets 20 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -3.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Jets, NFL Picks, Texans, Uncategorized

New York Jets (5-4) at Houston Texans (4-5)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, I think this line is probably too high at 3.5 in favor of the visiting Jets in Houston. The Texans are no pushover and have won 3 of their last 4 games, including last week in Cincinnati against the previously undefeated Bengals. They rank 15th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re likely going to be missing quarterback Brian Hoyer, who has been playing well, but their defense is solid too, ranking 12th in rate of moving the chains allowed, and TJ Yates probably isn’t a huge downgrade from Hoyer.

The Jets, meanwhile, rank 5th, though they are probably going to be without talented defensive end Sheldon Richardson. Considering close to one in four games are decided by a field goal or less, the Jets shouldn’t be favored by 3.5 here. However, the Texans are in a bad spot. Teams are 36-58 ATS since 1989 off of a road victory as 10+ point underdogs and the Texans could be overconfident after last week’s victory in Cincinnati. That win wasn’t totally fluky as the Texans are a solid team, but there were definitely some fluky aspects to it. The Texans are still the pick, but it’s a no confidence pick.

New York Jets 16 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: Houston +3.5

Confidence: None

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Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bills, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (4-4) at New York Jets (5-3)

This line, 2 in favor of the Jets, suggests that the Bills are the slightly better team. I don’t think that’s true. The Jets rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bills rank all the way down at 24th. Given that about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, the fact that this line came off of 3, where it was earlier this week, is very intriguing, considering the Jets are the better team. It also doesn’t help the Bills that they’re coming off of a win. Rex Ryan coached teams are just 1-12 straight up off of a win since the start of the 2013 season (5-8 ATS), as Jets fans should know well. Given his personality and the type of coach he is, that makes a lot of sense.

The Jets are also in the better spot, as they head to Houston next week, while the Bills have a much tougher test in New England. While the early line favors the Jets by 3 over the Texans, the Bills are expected to be 10 point underdogs. Teams are 108-82 ATS before being 3+ point road favorites since 2012, while teams are 34-52 ATS before being 10+ point road underdogs over that same time period. The Jets are not guaranteed to be 3+ point favorites next week and the Bills are not guaranteed to be 10+ point underdogs next week, but, either way, the logic holds. The Jets don’t have an upcoming distraction, while the Bills definitely do.

The one thing that worries me is injuries, as the Jets are more banged up than they’ve been all season, missing two key starters from their secondary, safety Calvin Pryor and cornerback Antonio Cromartie. Ryan Fitzpatrick, meanwhile, will play, but is expected to get left thumb surgery tomorrow after the game. It’s his non-throwing hand, so it shouldn’t affect his ability to throw, but it could be problematic when he tries to hand the ball off or protect the ball while being sacked. He could also be knocked out of the game, which would force the Jets to turn to Geno Smith, who is a definite downgrade. Fitzpatrick made it through the game fine last week against Jacksonville, but the Bills should be able to pressure him more than the Jaguars did. Center Nick Mangold does return this week from a neck injury, which should help their offensive line majorly, but he also returned last week, before getting knocked out again.

The Bills, meanwhile, have quarterback Tyrod Taylor, running back Karlos Williams, running back LeSean McCoy, and wide receiver Sammy Watkins all healthy for the 2nd straight week and are only missing wide receiver Percy Harvin and defensive tackle Kyle Williams. Williams’ absence hurts their defense, but this is his 3rd straight missed game and their offense was a lot better last week with the aforementioned quartet healthy. The Jets should still be able to win by at least a field goal in this spot though.

New York Jets 24 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -2

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) at New York Jets (4-3)

The Jets were 4-1 and coming off of a 34-20 victory over the Redskins a few weeks ago, but they’ve taken a serious hit since then, losing 2 straight. It’s not as bad as it sounds though, as both losses came on the road against solid or better opponents in New England and Oakland. Their 14 point loss in Oakland last week wasn’t good, but, remember, they were leading the Patriots in the 4th quarter the previous week, before ultimately losing by a touchdown.

Besides, last week’s loss probably would have been a lot closer if Ryan Fitzpatrick hadn’t gotten knocked out early. Fitzpatrick has been solid this season, completing 61.9% of his passes for an average of 7.06 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He’s not the best quarterback in the world or anything, but he’s significantly better than Geno Smith, who struggled in his absence last week. Fitzpatrick returns this week, though he’s definitely not at 100%, with torn ligaments in his non-throwing thumb that require surgery eventually. It probably won’t affect his throwing ability, but it’s unclear how he’ll play and if it’ll cause him to be fumble prone or mess up hand offs. We don’t even know if he’ll be able to make it through the whole game or if he’ll get knocked out again.

If Fitzpatrick were healthy, I’d put money on the Jets here as 8 point home favorites over the Jaguars. Despite the Jets’ last two weeks, they still rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Jaguars rank 29th, so we’re definitely getting line value with the Jets. I still think the Jets are the right side though and should win by double digits, though they do have two other things working against them. For one, the Jets are also missing safety Calvin Pryor, while the Jaguars are close to 100%, after having a bunch of early season injuries. Two, the Jets have to turn around and play the Bills on Thursday Night Football next week. Favorites are 42-67 ATS before a Thursday night game since 2008. The Jets are still the pick though.

New York Jets 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -8

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Jets, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

New York Jets (4-2) at Oakland Raiders (3-3)

Both of these teams have exceeded expectations this season, after being among the worst teams in the league last season. However, the Jets have been significantly better, ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, while Oakland comes in 17th. Ryan Fitzpatrick has bounced back well from a broken leg that ended his 2014 season and has continued his surprisingly solid play from 2013 and 2014 in Tennessee and Houston, giving the Jets arguably the best quarterback they’ve had since Chad Pennington. Wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker give him a pair of talented targets to throw to and running back Chris Ivory has broken out as a legitimate feature back. Meanwhile, a veteran offensive line has rolled back the clock a little bit and played very well.

Defensively, new head coach Todd Bowles has improved a defense that was already pretty solid to begin with, in large part due to big contributions from free agent acquisition cornerback Darrelle Revis and first round pick defensive end Leonard Williams. Last week, they led in the 4th quarter in New England, before eventually losing by a touchdown. Oakland is better on both sides of the ball this year too, thanks to rookie wide receiver (4th overall) Amari Cooper, free agent acquisition wide receiver Michael Crabtree, and much improved 2nd year quarterback Derek Carr on offense, and free agent acquisitions defensive tackle Dan Williams and outside linebacker Aldon Smith on defense. Williams and Smith lead a solid front 7 with holdovers defensive end Justin Tuck and outside linebacker Khalil Mack, both of whom have played better this year than last year.

Unfortunately, Tuck is now out for the year with injury, as of a few weeks ago. They were able to win in San Diego last week, in their first week without him, but their defense didn’t really play that well in that one, as they won on the strength of their offense. That’s going to be harder to do against the Jets, given that the Jets still rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential after a trip to New England last week. The Raiders have barely had any injuries this season, so losing Tuck really hurts their defense. The Jets have some injuries of their own, as center Nick Mangold and safety Calvin Pryor are out for this one, which also definitely hurts, considering those players are both talented starters and considering they haven’t really had any injuries yet either. However, this line is still too low at 3.

The Jets are also in a better spot, as they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 49-33 ATS as road favorites off a road loss since 2008, including 41-27 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 204-212 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 296-411 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.94 points per game. On top of that, they have an easier game than the Raiders do on deck, as they host the Jaguars, while the Raiders have to go to Pittsburgh. With the public all over the Jets, I don’t think there’s not quite enough here for me to put money on the Jets unless this line goes under a field goal, but they should be the right side.

New York Jets 19 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -3

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Jets, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

New York Jets (4-1) at New England Patriots (5-0)

The Patriots are in a good spot this week, as they are 9 point favorites before being favored by a bunch of points again next week, as they’re expected to be 10.5 point favorites at home over the Miami Dolphins. Big favorites tend to cover before being big favorites again, as 6+ point favorites are 109-67 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point favorites again. This makes sense, as good teams tend to take care of their business pretty easily when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. That being said, I’m still going with the Jets as 9 point underdogs for a bunch of reasons.

For one, the Patriots don’t deserve to be 9 point favorites here. They’re good, arguably the best team in the league, as they rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, carrying over their strong play from down the stretch in 2014 into 2015, but the Jets are also a very good team, ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, just one spot below the Patriots. The Patriots are much more likely to finish the season in the top-3 and are the more talented team on paper, but the Jets are much improved from last season.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has bounced back well from a broken leg that ended his 2014 season and has continued his surprisingly solid play from 2013 and 2014 in Tennessee and Houston, giving the Jets arguably the best quarterback they’ve had since Chad Pennington. Wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker give him a pair of solid targets to throw to and running back Chris Ivory has broken out as a legitimate feature back. Meanwhile, a veteran offensive line has rolled back the clock a little bit and played very well.

Defensively, new head coach Todd Bowles has improved a defense that was already pretty solid to begin with, in large part due to big contributions from free agent acquisition cornerback Darrelle Revis and first round pick defensive end Leonard Williams. Last week, the Jets got defensive end Sheldon Richardson, one of the best defensive players in the game in 2013 and 2014, back from a 4 game suspension, adding to an already stacked 3-man defensive front in their 3-4 defense, with Damon Harrison, Leonard Williams, and Muhammad Wilkerson. They rank #1 by a wide margin in rate of moving the chains allowed and could give the Patriots’ offense a lot of problems. This is the toughest game of the Patriots’ season thus far and they shouldn’t be favored by much more than 4 or 5 points. We’re getting great value with the Jets at +9, even with the Patriots having an easy game on deck. The Jets shouldn’t be 9 point underdogs anywhere.

On top of that, the Patriots’ easy game next week might not be as easy as it seems, as they have to turn around and face the Dolphins in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. That hurts them, as teams, particularly favorites, struggle before Thursday Night Football, as having another game in 4 days understandably provides a distraction. Favorites are 41-66 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. I wouldn’t worry too much about that aforementioned trend about 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites because the Jets are such a tough opponent and the Patriots’ next game is in 4 days.

The Jets, meanwhile, also have a relatively easy game on deck, as they head to Oakland, where they’re expected to be 3 point road favorites. Teams are 105-80 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites and 68-48 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites. The Jets aren’t guaranteed to be 3+ point road favorites, but the logic would still hold either way. This is a way more important game for the Jets than their next game will be and that should show on the field, especially against a New England team that has to play again in 4 days. The Jets are also in a much better injury situation, with no one of note expected to miss this game, besides backup running back Bilal Powell. The Patriots, meanwhile, were already without left tackle Nate Solder for the season going into last week and now are also without replacement left tackle Marcus Cannon, along with defensive end Jabaal Sheard and Dont’a Hightower, very big parts of their defense. I’d take the Jets +9 easily.

New England Patriots 24 New York Jets 20

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +9

Confidence: High

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Washington Redskins at New York Jets: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Commanders, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (2-3) at New York Jets (3-1)

The Jets have been pleasantly surprising to start the season. They beat Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Miami pretty convincingly, though they did lose at home to the Eagles. Still, a 3-1 record with impressive victories is a pleasant surprise for a team that wasn’t expected to do much this season. Ryan Fitzpatrick has bounced back well from a broken leg that ended his 2014 season and has continued his surprisingly solid play from 2013 and 2014 in Tennessee and Houston, giving the Jets arguably the best quarterback they’ve had since Chad Pennington. Wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker give him a pair of solid targets to throw to and running back Chris Ivory has broken out as a legitimate feature back. Meanwhile, a veteran offensive line has rolled back the clock a little bit and played very well.

Defensively, new head coach Todd Bowles has improved a defense that was already pretty solid to begin with, in large part due to big contributions from free agent acquisition cornerback Darrelle Revis and first round pick defensive end Leonard Williams. The Jets also get defensive end Sheldon Richardson, one of the best defensive players in the game in 2013 and 2014, back from a 4 game suspension this week, though it’s unclear how they’ll split up playing time between all their talented defensive linemen. Williams has played too well in Richardson’s absence to be a mere backup, but Muhammad Wilkerson is still dominant on the other side, while nose tackle Damon Harrison is equally established inside at nose tackle. It’s a good problem to have, but one the Jets will still have to manage properly. Overall, the Jets rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential. It’d still be hard to argue that they’re a top-4 team or anything like that, but they’re definitely a playoff contender and it’s clear that they’re here to stay as a threat.

The Redskins, however, have also been equally surprisingly good, but you can’t really tell by their record, as they stand at 2-3. Still, they’ve been St. Louis pretty easily and also beat Philadelphia, while two of their losses were a return touchdown away from being completely different games, including a game in Atlanta last week where they took the then undefeated Falcons to overtime, only to lose on a pick six. A loss in New York to the Giants by 11 on a short week has been their only bad loss to date. Kirk Cousins hasn’t been great or anything, but he’s been serviceable, even with wide receiver DeSean Jackson going down with a severe hamstring injury week 1. Jackson could be back this week, but, just as he’s getting healthy, tight end Jordan Reed, such a big part of their offense with Jackson out, will miss his 2nd straight game with a concussion this week and is out indefinitely. On top of that, stud left tackle Trent Williams has been ruled out for this one.

The defense is where the Redskins have made their biggest improvement, despite starting cornerbacks DeAngelo Hall and Chris Culliver missing time with injury. Both will once again be out this week. New defensive coordinator Joe Barry has done a good job, 2nd year cornerback Bashaud Breeland has been massively improved and been a huge asset with injuries at that position, while the front 7 is dominant, led by budding superstar Ryan Kerrigan, along with talented 2nd year player Trent Murphy, veteran holdovers Jason Hatcher and Chris Baker, and free agent acquisitions Stephen Paea, Terrance Knighton, and Ricky Jean Francois. Despite injuries, they rank 8th in rate of moving the chains allowed, significantly improved from last season. Their defense has been able to cover for a lackluster offense and they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential as a result. Like the Jets, it’s hard to argue that they’re actually as good as how they rank in that statistic, but, like the Jets, I think it’s clear that they’re here to stay as a threat.

The Redskins are also in a way better spot, as they have arguably the easiest game of their season, a home game against Tampa Bay, on deck, while the Jets have arguably their toughest game on deck, a trip to New England. The Jets will be rested off of a bye, which helps, but I think we’re going to have two different levels of focus for this game and history supports that theory. Underdogs are 112-68 ATS since 2010 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, while 6+ point favorites like the Jets are here are 48-83 ATS since 2002 before being 6+ point underdogs (the Jets are currently -9.5 in New England in the early line).

The Redskins are “only” 5 point favorites at home for Tampa Bay next week, but that could easily move to 6, while the Jets’ line could easily move to 10. If that happens, that opens up even more powerful trends. Teams are just 51-90 ATS before being 10+ point underdogs since 2010, while that 6 and 6 trend I mentioned earlier works the other way too. Teams are 69-57 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point favorites, including 12-5 ATS since 1989 when their opponent will next be 6+ point underdogs. Even if those lines don’t move a little bit, the logic behind those trends still holds. This is one of the worst spots a team can be in.

Some might think it’ll be tough for the Redskins to bounce back off of a road overtime loss, that aforementioned game in Atlanta last week, and ordinarily that would be true, but it really helps that the Redskins are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 119-85 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 97-58 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 200-207 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.43 points per game, as opposed to 293-404 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.95 points per game. That should nullify any effect of the Redskins’ overtime road loss last week, as teams are 18-17 ATS as road underdogs off of a road loss in overtime since 1989, as long as it’s their 2nd of two road games,.

The Redskins’ injuries caused me to switch this from being my Pick of the Week, but I still think they’re the right side for a high confidence pick. They’re banged up and clearly the less talented of these two teams going into this one, but they’re in by far the better spot and they have a touchdown of buffer room to work with as 7 point underdogs. Especially with the public taking the Jets pretty decisively, I’m confident in the Redskins to cover this week.

New York Jets 20 Washington Redskins 19

Pick against the spread: Washington +7

Confidence: High

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New York Jets at Miami Dolphins in London: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 4 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

New York Jets (2-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-2) in London

The Dolphins fell flat on their face in their home opener last week, losing 41-14 to the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins, for some reason, haven’t had much of a homefield advantage in recent years, going 13-12, getting outscored by an average of 0.04 points per game, at home, while going 12-15, getting outscored by an average of 2.08 points per game, on the road, since 2012, the start of the Ryan Tannehill/Joe Philbin era. Maybe that’s why they’ve agreed to give up one of their Miami games to play a game in London as the “home team” this week. They played in London as the road team last year and blew the Raiders out by the score of 38-14. I think having that experience of travelling across the ocean to play in London, which the Jets don’t really have, gives them an advantage.

The Dolphins have been the biggest disappointment in the league, in my opinion. They were arguably the best non-playoff team in the league last season, finishing 10th in rate of moving the chains differential. I thought they improved on the offensive line, improved in the receiving corps, and improved on defense, thanks to the massive addition of Ndamukong Suh, this off-season. They still had some issues at guard, cornerback, and safety, but I thought they could be a top-5 team. That hasn’t happened, as they are coming off of an embarrassing home loss and are 1-2, ranking 24th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite an easy schedule.

The Dolphins might not ever reach their potential until they get rid of Joe Philbin and this coaching staff and, if that’s true, it’s important that they get rid of them soon, to save this season. With 9 players scheduled to take up a combined 101 million on their 2016 cap, this team went all in on this season and will be in salary cap hell for a few off-seasons afterwards as a result. They need to get results on the field as soon as possible. I still think they’re talented enough to turn it around though and I like their chances as 2 point underdogs here against the Jets. The Dolphins were in a very similar situation last year going into this game and turned their season around.

The Jets have had a solid start to their season going 2-1 and ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, after ranking 28th a season ago. I do think they’re an improved team, thanks to several off-season additions, including Darrelle Revis and Brandon Marshall, but also Ryan Fitzpatrick. Ryan Fitzpatrick has continued to play solidly, as he did in Tennessee in 2013 and Houston in 2014, and might be the best quarterback they’ve had since Chad Pennington was healthy. They’re also getting Eric Decker and Chris Ivory back this week, after neither played last week with injuries in their first loss of the season. I still think the Dolphins are more talented, despite what the first 3 weeks have shown, and I like them in this spot, so they should be able to cover, but I’m not confident, especially with left tackle Branden Albert once again out with a hamstring problem.

Miami Dolphins 20 New York Jets 17 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +2

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, Eagles, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (0-2) at New York Jets (2-0)

This game had the biggest line movement from last week to this week of any line that didn’t involve an injured quarterback, as the Jets have gone from 3.5 point home underdogs to 2.5 point home favorites here this week. I usually love to fade huge line movements like that because they tend to be overreactionary and this one is no exception. Some of that movement is understandable, as the Eagles lost three important defensive starters, Cedric Thornton, Kiko Alonso, and Mychal Kendricks, with injury last week and couldn’t do anything offensively against the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Jets went into Indianapolis and won by the final score of 20-7, backing up an impressive 31-10 week 1 win over the Browns.

However, if the Eagles had hit a makeable field goal in Atlanta week 1, they’d very likely be 1-1 right now and we wouldn’t be too worried about them. Meanwhile, the Jets have been overly reliant on winning the turnover battle through 2 weeks. They’ve had a +4 turnover margin in both games thus far, playing a huge part in their success, but that’s very tough to sustain. Teams that have a +4 turnover margin, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week.

None of this is to say that the line shouldn’t have moved somewhat, as the Eagles are missing essential defensive personnel and their offense has struggled in Sam Bradford’s first year in town, while the Jets have proven they are at least a decent team. Ryan Fitzpatrick has continued to play solidly, as he did in Tennessee in 2013 and Houston in 2014, and might be the best quarterback they’ve had since Chad Pennington was healthy. He’s also had solid offensive play around him and new head coach Todd Bowles has this defense playing well too. However, they’ll be without wide receiver Eric Decker in this one, while running back Chris Ivory is going to be a gametime decision, and I think we’re getting a good deal getting a few points with the Eagles. I wouldn’t put money on it, but the Eagles are my pick.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 New York Jets 17 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +2.5

Confidence: Low

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