Lions

Detroit Lions 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Lions, Uncategorized

Quarterback

It was a tale of two seasons for the Lions in 2015. Following a 1-7 start and a 45-10 loss to the Chiefs in London week 8, the Lions won 6 of their final 8 games after the bye. It was too late for them to make the playoffs obviously, as they finished just 7-9, but there is a lot to build on following last season’s strong finish, as they try to make the playoffs for the 3rd time in 6 seasons in 2016. The Lions were especially strong on offense over the final 8 games of the season, moving the chains at a 76.14% rate over that stretch, as opposed to 69.02% over the first 8 games of the season.

The one big change the Lions made was firing offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and replacing him with ex-quarterbacks coach Jim Bob Cooter. The Lions struggled in Cooter’s first game as offensive coordinator, that big loss in London, but that was a borderline impossible situation for Cooter, taking over the job the same week the Lions had to travel all the way to London. After the bye the following week, the Lions’ offense was significantly better and Cooter deserves a lot of credit for the turnaround.

Matt Stafford’s numbers were drastically better over the final 8 games of the season. Obviously Stafford deserves a lot of the credit, but so does Cooter. Over the first 8 games of the season, Stafford completed 64.5% of his passes for an average of 6.97 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, as opposed to 70.0% completion, 7.44 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions over the final 8 games of the season. The Lions’ schedule was noticeably easier down the stretch, but that’s still an impressive turnaround. Overall on the season, Stafford finished 21st among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, slightly below average for the 2nd straight season, after finishing in the top-13 in each of his first 3 seasons as a starter from 2011-2013. He isn’t more than a solid starter, but he’s certainly not a bad option either and it’s clear he has an offensive coordinator who is a good fit for him right now.

Grade: B

Wide Receivers

One thing that really threatens to derail the offensive progress the Lions made down the stretch last season is the sudden retirement of Calvin Johnson, ahead of his age 31 season. Johnson was aging, declining, and hampered with injuries, but Megatron at 80-90% was still Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked wide receiver, actually the lowest the still-likely-future-Hall-of-Famer had finished since 2009. It’s tough to replace a guy like that, but the Lions did not waste any time finding a replacement, signing Marvin Jones, arguably the top available free agent wide receiver this off-season, to a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal.

Jones is obviously not nearly as good as Johnson, but he’s been an impressive wide receiver over the past 3 seasons as long as he’s been healthy. He finished 2013 as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked wide receiver and last season as their 38th ranked wide receiver, with a 2014 season lost to injury in between. Aside from the injury that cost him all of 2014, Jones hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year, so injuries aren’t a long-term concern for him. Still only going into his age 26 season, it’s possible the best football of his career is yet to come. He’s not quite a true #1 wide receiver, but he’s at least a 1B caliber player.

Fortunately, Golden Tate can be 1A for Detroit, as he returns on the other side. Tate finished last season 27th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus, slightly better than Jones. That’s actually Tate’s lowest rated season since 2012, as he averaged more than 2 yards per route run in both 2013 and 2014. Even with the Seahawks he was very productive on a per route basis; the Seahawks just did not pass often. In a much pass happier Detroit offense, Tate caught 99 passes for 1331 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2014, before falling to a 90/813/6 in 2015. He has a very good chance to bounce back this season though. He caught 39 passes for 599 yards and 3 touchdowns in 5 games where Johnson was injured in 2014, proving he can be a #1 receiver. Jones will get plenty of targets, especially around the red zone, but Tate should lead this team in receptions and receiving yards in 2016.

Theo Riddick was 3rd on the team with 80 catches for 697 yards and 3 touchdowns last year. He’s a nice option to have, but the Lions probably don’t want to be as reliant on him next season as they were last season, which means they need tight end Eric Ebron to step up. The 10th overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, Ebron has graded out below average in his first 2 seasons in the NFL. However, he was a lot better from 2014 to 2015, especially as a pass catcher, after a drop-filled rookie year. He still has a lot of room for improvement as a run blocker, but he could take another leap forward in his 3rd year in the league in 2016. The Lions knew he was raw when they drafted him and he’s still only going into his age 23 season. He’s a question mark overall, but there’s plenty of upside here.

Brandon Pettigrew remains as the #2 tight end. A bust as a 1st round pick by the Lions in 2008, Pettigrew is a solid blocker, but little else, catching just 17 passes over the past 2 seasons. Making matters worse, he’s going into his age 31 season and coming off of a torn ACL. He likely would have been released this off-season, if not for the fact that his December injury guaranteed his 2016 salary, per the terms of his contract. Owed a non-guaranteed 3.65 million in 2017, this is likely his final year in Detroit. He could even be pushed for snaps by undrafted free agent tight end Cole Wick and is not a lock to be healthy enough to play by week 1.

Anquan Boldin is another option in the passing game along with Jones, Tate, Ebron, and Riddick, signing a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal with the Lions as a free agent this off-season, ahead of his age 36 season. Even though he’s the 2nd oldest wide receiver in the league after Steve Smith, he still finished last season 33rd among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in 2015 and could still have another solid season left in the tank as a slot specialist and 3rd wide receiver behind Jones and Tate. It’s definitely not a bad receiving corps, but Johnson will definitely be missed.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

One area the Lions really need to improve is on the ground, as that’s been a weakness for two seasons and remained one even after the offense improved in the 2nd half of last season. Stafford can’t maintain those absurd numbers he put up in the final 8 games of the season, especially without Johnson and against a harder schedule, so they’ll need to run the football better, after averaging 3.59 yards per carry in 2014 (29th in the NFL) and 3.77 yards per carry in 2015 (26th in the NFL).

The Lions drafted Ameer Abdullah in the 2nd round in 2015 to try to improve the running game. However, he did not have a good rookie year, grading out 53rd among 69 eligible running backs on Pro Football Focus. His overall numbers were not bad, as he rushed for 597 yards and 2 touchdowns on 143 carries (4.17 YPC), but he fumbled 4 times, struggled in pass protection (limiting him to 355 total snaps), and managed just 27 first downs on those 143 carries. The Lions expect more from him this season and he is definitely the favorite to lead the team in carries, but it’s far from a guarantee that he performs well.

His biggest competition for carries is Zach Zenner, a 5-11 222 pounder who will serve as the #2 “big back” behind the 5-9 203 pound Abdullah. Joique Bell served in that role last season, rushing for 311 yards and 4 touchdowns on 90 carries, a very weak 3.46 YPC that got him cut ahead of his age 30 season in 2016; he remains unsigned as of this writing. Zenner didn’t perform well in limited action last season either, rushing for 60 yards on 17 carries (3.53 YPC), but the Lions still like the 2015 undrafted free agent’s upside, after a strong pre-season last year. That’s not enough for me to be confident in him though.

As I mentioned, Theo Riddick returns as the passing down back, after breaking out in that role in 2015. A collegiate running back and wide receiver at the University of Notre Dame, Riddick is useless as a rusher, with just 209 yards and 1 touchdown on 72 carries in 3 years in the league (a 2.90 career YPC), but flashed with 34 catches in limited action in 2014 and then caught 80 passes last season (tied for first in the NFL among running backs). He finished the season #1 among running backs on Pro Football Focus in pure pass catching grade. Another 60-70 catches isn’t out of the question for Riddick. Zenner taking short yardage work and Riddick playing passing downs limits Abdullah’s upside on a team that doesn’t run the ball much anyway. It’s an underwhelming trio overall, particularly on the ground.

Grade: C

Offensive Line

The Lions’ running backs aren’t really any better than they were last year, but they could be better on the ground anyway if their offensive line plays better than it did last season. In 2013, the Lions averaged 4.03 yards per carry despite Joique Bell and a declining Reggie Bush splitting carries, in large part because of a dominant offensive line. The offensive line has been anything but dominant since and only two starters from that 2013 offensive line remain right now. The Lions have spent their last two first round picks trying to remedy the problem.

Laken Tomlinson was their first round pick in 2015. A collegiate left tackle at Duke, Tomlinson struggled at left guard last season, finishing 53rd out of 81 eligible guards on Pro Football Focus, but still has a lot of talent and could be a lot better in his 2nd year in the league. The Lions then used the 16th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft to take Taylor Decker out of Ohio State. Though many feel he’s a better fit at right tackle in the NFL, the Lions plan on keeping Decker at his collegiate position of left tackle for now and moving incumbent left tackle Riley Reiff to right tackle. That could certainly change, but that’s the way it looks right now.

Reiff wasn’t bad at left tackle, making 47 starts there from 2013-2015 and grading out around average or above in all 3 seasons, but the Lions feel more comfortable with him at right tackle, as he’s a much better run blocker than pass protector. Reiff is one of those two holdovers from the Lions’ 2013 offensive line; the other is right guard Larry Warford. A 3rd round rookie in 2013, Warford looked like a future All-Pro and was actually my pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year (over Eddie Lacy and Keenan Allen), finishing as Pro Football Focus’ #4 ranked guard and not missing a snap all season. Injuries have really slowed him down over the past 2 seasons though, as he’s missed 6 games with injury, and his ranking has fallen to 16th in 2014 and 37th in 2015. If he can stay healthy and bounce back this season, that would be huge for this team, and huge for him as well, as he heads into his contract year.

Center is the Lions’ biggest weakness, as incumbent center Travis Swanson struggled mightily in his first year as a starter in 2015, finishing 33rd out of 39 eligible centers on Pro Football Focus. The 2014 3rd round pick struggled mightily in limited action as a rookie too. He’ll be pushed for his starting job by 3rd round rookie Graham Glasgow and will be on a very short leash even if he does keep his starting job to begin the season. It’s an overall improved offensive line, but it’s still one with a lot of problems.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

Last off-season, the Lions lost defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley, and CJ Mosley in free agency and had to completely retool the defensive tackle position. The biggest move they made towards that goal was trading for ex-Baltimore defensive tackle Haloti Ngata. Ngata graded out as a top-18 player at his position in every season from 2007-2014 with the Ravens (playing 3-4 defensive end, 3-4 nose tackle, and 4-3 defensive tackle), but Ngata was aging and the Ravens had cap issues and were willing to part with him and his non-guaranteed 8.5 million dollar salary.

Ngata wasn’t quite the same player last season as he was in Baltimore, finishing 39th out of interior defenders on Pro Football Focus, but he was still an above average starter and an asset for the Lions. They re-signed him as a free agent this off-season, giving him 12 million over 2 years. Going into his age 32 season, his best days are probably behind him, but he should still have at least a couple more good seasons left in him. He led Lion defensive tackles in snaps played last season with 599 and could easily do so again this season.

Tyrunn Walker was the Lions’ other addition at defensive tackle last off-season. He was obviously a much smaller addition than Ngata and he didn’t pan out for the Lions because he missed the final 12 games of the season with a broken ankle. The Lions decided to bring him back this off-season though, keeping him on a cheap 1-year, 1.6 million dollar deal. Only going into his age 26 season, if he can stay healthy, there’s still breakout potential here.

The 2012 undrafted free agent flashed in 2013 and 2014, grading about above average on 119 and 308 snaps respectively, including 21st among defensive tackles in 2014. He’ll compete for a starting job and, at the very least, will have a significant rotational role. The Lions also added A’Shawn Robinson in the 2nd round of the draft. He’s not much of a pass rusher yet, but the 6-4 307 pounder is probably the favorite for early down snaps next to Ngata, with Walker working in as a sub package pass rusher.

With Suh gone, Ezekiel Ansah has taken over as the Lions’ most dominant defensive lineman. Ansah isn’t as good as Suh, but he’s close. Ansah, the #5 overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, is also 2 years younger than Suh. He’s made 44 starts in 3 years in the league and has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 4-3 defensive end and their 27th ranked edge defender in 2014 and 2015 respectively. With two years left on his rookie deal, Ansah could come close to Ndamukong Suh money (114 million over 6 years) on his next contract. The Lions will likely try to extend him either this off-season or next.

At the other defensive end spot, Jason Jones left as a free agent, after making 15 starts last season, but the Lions have an obvious internal replacement in Devin Taylor. Taylor, a 2013 4th round pick, struggled on a combined 535 snaps in his first 2 years in the league, 2013 and 2014, but had a mini-breakout year last year, grading out just above average on 551 snaps as the #3 defensive end. Going into his first year as a starter, he could take another leap forward, which could net him a big payday as a free agent next off-season. At the very least, he’s an adequate replacement for Jones.

The Lions also signed veteran Wallace Gilberry as a free agent. He’ll serve as the #3 defensive end, though he’s an underwhelming player at this stage of his career. Going into his age 32 season, Gilberry has graded out below average in 6 of 8 seasons in the league and may be nearing the end. 6th round rookie Anthony Gettel could push him for snaps by the end of the season. Still, it’s an overall solid defensive line led by Ezekiel Ansah and Haloti Ngata, with capable starters like Tyrunn Walker and Devin Taylor also in the mix.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

As big as the Ndamukong Suh loss was for the Lions, the loss of outside linebacker DeAndre Levy for most of the season with a hip injury (he played just 17 total snaps) was arguably just as big. Levy finished 9th among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2013 and 3rd at the position in 2014. Still, even without him, the Lions’ linebackers played well last season, as Josh Bynes and Tahir Whitehead graded out 13th and 14th respectively among linebackers on Pro Football Focus, on 818 and 588 snaps respectively, though middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch struggled, grading out below average in his first season back from a torn ACL.

Whitehead was re-signed for 8 million over 2 years this off-season as a free agent, a great deal considering how well he’s played over the past 2 seasons. The 2012 5th round pick has played 722 and 588 snaps over the past two seasons respectively, thanks to injuries to Stephen Tulloch in 2014 and DeAndre Levy in 2015. He’s graded out 13th among middle linebackers and 16th among linebackers respectively in those 2 seasons in run stopping grade on Pro Football Focus and he was noticeably better in coverage between 2014 and 2015, leading to that #14 overall finish among linebackers.

Bynes is a little bit less proven, as he had just 9 starts in 4 years in the league prior to 2015, when he started 11 games. Even with Levy coming back, there will still be a role for Bynes in the Lions’ linebacking corps in 2016, as the Lions let veteran middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch go this off-season, owed 5.5 million non-guaranteed in his age 31 season in 2016. Bynes will play primarily as a base package run stuffer outside, coming off the field in sub packages for a 5th defensive back. Levy and Whitehead, meanwhile, will start at outside linebacker and middle linebacker respectively and play essentially every down. With Levy returning, it’s a strong group.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Lions really struck gold in the first 2 rounds of the 2013 NFL Draft. I already mentioned Ansah, the 5th overall pick that year, but cornerback Darius Slay, their 2nd rounder that year, is arguably just as valuable to this defense. There’s a reason the Lions just locked him up long-term for 50.2 million over 4 years, ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2016. That’s very reasonable considering Slay finished last season 2nd in the NFL among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of being that kind of a high level player, but he’s made all 32 starts over the past 2 seasons and also finished 19th among cornerbacks in 2014. Still only going into his age 25 season, Slay has a very bright future and present.

Along with Slay, safety Glover Quin is a very valuable asset in the defensive backfield for the Lions. Quin was a steal on a 5-year, 23.5 million dollar contract three off-seasons ago, coming over from Houston. Quin has graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in 6 straight seasons, dating back to 2010, and has finished 10th, 3rd, and 38th among safeties in 3 seasons in Detroit. He also hasn’t missed a game with injury in 6 seasons. Going into his age 30 season, coming off of a bit of a down year, it’s possible his best days are behind him, but he remains an obvious asset in the Lions’ secondary.

The other two starting spots in the secondary are much shakier though. Veteran starter Rashean Mathis retired this off-season. Even though he was going into his age 36 season and missed 9 games with injury last season, he’ll still be missed, as 2014 4th round Nevin Lawson struggled mightily in his absence last season, finishing 101st out of 111 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, in the first significant action of his career. Lawson is penciled into the starting job to begin the season, largely for lack of a better option.

Meanwhile, at the other safety spot, the Lions lost James Ihedigbo and Isa Abdul-Quddas to free agency this off-season, so it’ll be a three way competition between free agent acquisitions Rafael Bush and Tavon Wilson, as well as 4th round rookie Miles Killebrew. None are good options. Killebrew is probably not ready to start in the NFL. Wilson was a 2nd round pick by the Patriots in 2012, but made just 4 starts in 4 years in New England and played just 83 snaps last season. He’s best off as a reserve. Bush has the most starting experience with 16 starts. The 2010 undrafted free agent has never played more than 520 snaps in a season though and missed all but 21 snaps last season with injury. That being said, he’s flashed in limited action and is probably the favorite here. Bush and Lawson would both be weaknesses in this secondary.

There is one more positive for the Lions in the secondary though, as 2015 6th round pick Quandre Diggs broke out as a solid slot cornerback as a rookie, finishing 33th among cornerbacks on 484 snaps. At 5-9 193, Diggs is a slot cornerback only and isn’t a serious candidate for the starting job outside opposite Slay, but he’s very valuable to them covering slot receivers in obvious passing situations; 333 of his 484 snaps played last season came on pass snaps. Like most of the team, there’s some talent here, but also noticeable issues.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Lions finished last year on a run offensively. Losing Calvin Johnson hurts and it’s unclear if they could keep that kind of play up over a 16 game season anyway, especially since their schedule wasn’t too hard down the stretch last season, but this team still has solid talent on both sides of the ball. They still have issues at running back and on the offensive line, which will make their offense one-dimensional again, but, even without Johnson, quarterback Matt Stafford has plenty of options to throw to, with Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin coming in and Eric Ebron possibly poised for a breakout year. This team should be in the playoff mix in the NFC.

Prediction: 9-7 2nd in NFC North

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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 17 NFL Picks, Bears, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (6-9) at Chicago Bears (6-9)

I don’t have too strong of a feel for this one, but this line seems too low at a pick em. That suggests that the Lions are 3 points better than the home team Bears, which I disagree with. The Bears rank 18th in rate of moving the chains differential and have been even better when Jay Cutler has been healthy, moving the chains at a 72.18% rate in the 13 games he’s been healthy, as opposed to 56.25% in the 2 games he was hurt. Granted, those two games Cutler missed were against Seattle and Arizona, arguably the two toughest defenses they’ve faced, and they’re missing top wide receiver Alshon Jeffery in this one, but I think they’re still probably more talented than the 18th place rank suggests.

The Lions also are more talented than their rank suggests, as they rank 20th in rate of moving the chains differential, but have played much better offensively since Jim Bob Cooter took over as offensive coordinator. However, they’re not 3 points better than the Bears. This line should be a field goal or so and, given that, we’re getting line value with the Bears. It’s not enough for me to put money on them in a game that’s otherwise meaningless for both teams, but they’re my pick.

Chicago Bears 20 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against the spread: Chicago PK

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, 49ers, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (4-10) at Detroit Lions (5-9)

The Lions were favored by just 6.5 points over the 49ers on the early line last week and now they’re favored by 10. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. This line is about right though, as the 49ers are the worst team in the NFL, by a wide margin I think. They rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential at -11.56%. No one else is worse than -7.85%. The Lions aren’t a great team or anything, ranking 21st in that measure, but, given how bad the 49ers are, I think this 10 point line is justified, especially since it seems like talented safety Glover Quin is going to be able to play despite suffering a concussion last week, as he returned to practice on Friday.

The Lions are in a bad spot though, as they have to turn around and go to Chicago, a much tougher game and a much bigger divisional game. The Lions could look past the lowly 49ers with that game on deck. Double digit favorites are 54-72 ATS before being underdogs since 2002 and the early line has the Lions as 1.5 point underdogs next week. I can’t have any confidence in the 49ers, given how bad they are (I haven’t taken them since week 4), but they’re my pick here.

Detroit Lions 26 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +10

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Lions, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (4-9) at New Orleans Saints (5-8)

The Saints were favored by just 1.5 points over the Lions on the early line last week, but have since jumped to 3 point favorites, following their upset victory in Tampa Bay and the Lions’ upset loss in St. Louis. That’s a significant line movement, considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. Ordinarily, I love to fade significant line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but it doesn’t really make sense here, as the Saints are a better team, ranking 15th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 24th for Detroit. This line suggests these two teams are even.

The Lions are helped by the fact that they are in their 2nd of two road games though. Teams are 126-91 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 103-63 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 222-222 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.45 points per game, as opposed to 317-433 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.75 points per game. I’m still taking the Saints, but this is a no confidence pick. This game has a high likelihood of a push.

New Orleans Saints 31 Detroit Lions 27

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, Lions, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (4-8) at St. Louis Rams (4-8)

Everything about this game screams to me to take St. Louis and the field goal. The Rams have gone from 2 point home favorites to field goal home underdogs in a week, from the early line last week to the line this week. I love to fade a significant line movement whenever it makes sense, as they tend be overreactions to a single week of play. It makes sense here. Despite the fact that the Rams rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential, we’re getting some line value with them, as the Lions rank just 27th, especially since about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal

It’s no surprise that we’re getting line value with the Rams, as they’ve lost two straight games by 21 or more. Teams are 43-27 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses by 21+, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. The Rams could easily be all 3 this week. The Rams are also home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs, a spot teams are 75-52 ATS in since 2002. Despite all of this, the public is all over the Lions. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because the public always loses money in the long run.

However, the Rams are just such a mess right now. Defensive end Robert Quinn, cornerback Janoris Jenkins, and safety TJ McDonald are all out this one, so the Rams are far less talented defensively than their 5th place rank in rate of moving the chains allowed suggests. Offensively, they don’t just rank dead last in rate of moving the chains; they’re also easily the worst offense I’ve seen in years. Transitioning to a new offensive coordinator this week, the Rams are going to have a really hard time moving the chains this week and their defense isn’t talented enough anymore to even come close to compensating. As currently constructed, they might be the worst team in the NFL. I’m taking the Rams, but I’m not confident at all.

Detroit Lions 15 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: St. Louis +3

Confidence: Low

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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, Lions, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (7-4) at Detroit Lions (4-7)

After an impressive 6-0 start, the Packers have lost 4 of their last 5 games, including two straight home losses, to the Chicago Bears last week and to these Detroit Lions three weeks ago. The line has really adjusted in the last week, as Green Bay, who was favored by 6 points on the early line last week, is now favored by just 3 points. I love fading significant week-to-week line movements, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. Aaron Rodgers is also 23-12 ATS off of a loss in his career.

However, as much as I love fading significant week-to-week line movements and as much as I love taking a quarterback like Rodgers off of a loss, I can’t take the Packers this week, even as mere 3 point favorites. I don’t think the line movement is an overreaction, as much as it is a correction. The Packers’ offense hasn’t been the same all season, since losing Jordy Nelson to a torn ACL in the pre-season, and, while their defense was covering for them early in the year, it’s regressed back to normal over the past few weeks, hence the 1-4 stretch.

The Packers certainly are not a bad team, ranking 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they’re not good enough to be favored here by a field goal, as Detroit ranks 25th in that statistic. That might sound like a big difference, but most of the league is bunched up in the middle this year. Green Bay is closer to 25th than they are to 4th. I can’t have any sort of confidence in the Lions either, without getting a couple more points, but they should be the right side, especially since the public is all over Green Bay. The public always loses money in the long run, so I like to fade them whenever it makes sense. It’s a no confidence pick of Detroit to start week 13.

Green Bay Packers 24 Detroit Lions 23

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Eagles, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (4-6) at Detroit Lions (3-7)

The Eagles were favored by a field goal in Detroit on the early line last week, but now are 2.5 point road underdogs, a huge line movement considering the fact that close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. I typically like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. I think that’s the case here this week. The Eagles got embarrassed at home against the Buccaneers last week 45-17, but they still rank 12th on the season in rate of moving the chains differential.

They could be without quarterback Sam Bradford for the 2nd straight week this week, but he hasn’t played that well this season and backup Mark Sanchez isn’t really a downgrade. Their defense has been what’s kept them competitive this season. They just had a fluky bad week last week. The Eagles are also missing running back Ryan Mathews, tight end Zach Ertz, and possibly center Jason Kelce with injuries. Still, they’re a significantly better team than the Lions, which is not what this line suggests. Despite that, the public is all over Detroit and I love to fade the public whenever it makes sense, which it does this week.

The Lions have won 2 straight games, but still rank 30th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re healthier than they’ve been all season and are playing their best football right now as a result. They’re in a tough spot with a home game against Green Bay on deck, as teams are 76-120 ATS before being home underdogs of 3+ since 2012, but the Eagles have a trip to New England on deck and teams are 34-53 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 10+. Neither of those things is guaranteed (Detroit being 3+ point home underdogs is more likely), but the logic holds either way. Both teams have tough upcoming games. With Kelce questionable, I can’t put any money on Philadelphia unless they’re getting a field goal, but they should be the right side.

Philadelphia Eagles 19 Detroit Lions 17 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Oakland Raiders at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Lions, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (4-5) at Detroit Lions (2-7)

The Raiders get talented center Rodney Hudson back from a one game absence this week, but they’ve also lost talented edge rusher Aldon Smith for the season with a suspension. Oakland has a solid offense (8th in rate of moving the chains) and one that is still at essentially full health with Hudson returning, but their defense isn’t nearly as good and has especially struggled without talented defensive end Justin Tuck, who went down for the season around a month ago. Now without Aldon Smith, this defense gets really thin on talent behind 2nd year player Khalil Mack, free agent acquisition Dan Williams, and ageless wonder Charles Woodson.

Still, this line, in which the Raiders are favored by only a point in Detroit, is too low. Despite their very close victory in Green Bay last week, the Lions still rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential (the Raiders are 11th on the season). The Lions are also in an awful spot this week, caught in between last week’s huge, emotional upset victory and a tough home game against the Eagles on Thanksgiving 4 days after this one, in which they’re expected to be 3 point home underdogs. Teams are 36-58 ATS since 1989 off of a road victory as 10+ point underdogs, while teams are 76-119 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012.

The Lions aren’t guaranteed to be field goal home underdogs next week, but, either way, the logic still stands; it’s going to be hard for the Lions to focus on the Raiders off of such a big victory last week with such a big home game on deck, especially given that it’s in 4 days on Thanksgiving. The Lions have covered just once before their previous 10 Thanksgiving games. The Raiders, meanwhile, just have a trip to Tennessee, where they should be road favorites, on deck. I wish the Lions were favored, even if only by a point or two, as favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game, but there’s enough here for me to put money on the Raiders. They should win and we’re getting field goal protection and then some with them.

Oakland Raiders 24 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Oakland -1

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Lions, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (1-7) at Green Bay Packers (6-2)

R-E-L-A-X. If Aaron Rodgers hadn’t said that last year after the Packers lost 2 of 3 games, he definitely would have said it now, after the Packers have lost 2 straight games. Both losses came on the road, against tough opponents, Carolina and Denver. The Packers still rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite those back-to-back tough road games, and should be able to bounce back at home against a vastly inferior Detroit team. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 30-12-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 39-4 straight up, with an absurd +610 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.19 points per game. They haven’t had that same kind of success on the road. Rodgers is also 23-11 ATS off of a loss in his career.

This line is pretty high at 11, but the Lions rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential. If anything, this line is too low in Lambeau. The Packers would probably be favored by two touchdowns if they had a better showing on the road over the past 2 weeks. The public is all over the Packers, which concerns me, as the public always loses money in the long run, but I don’t see this game being very close and I’m pretty confident laying the 11 points.

Green Bay Packers 34 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -11

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick in London

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (1-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-5) in London

Typically, the better team covers in London. This wasn’t true last week, when Jacksonville was able to beat Buffalo (favored by 4.5) in a close one, but favorites have covered in 8 of the last 11 London games (8-5 ATS all-time). It’s a small sample size, but it makes sense, as favorites also tend to be more organized teams capable of playing this type of weird game. The odds makers say the Chiefs are the better of these two teams here and I agree, as the Chiefs rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Lions rank 28th.

However, I do think this line is too high at 3.5. I have this line calculated around 1.5 and it was at 2.5 a week ago, before shifting a point, following Kansas City’s second win of the season last week and Detroit losing at home against Minnesota, falling to 1-6, and firing their offensive coordinator. It might not seem like a big shift, but 15.6% of games are decided by exactly a field goal, so it matters. These two teams are very evenly matched so it could definitely come down to a field goal, so the+3.5 is appealing to me.

The Chiefs are also pretty banged up, missing guard Ben Grubbs, defensive end Mike DeVito, and going into only their 3rd game without stud feature back Jamaal Charles. The Lions are missing outside linebacker DeAndre Levy, but he has only played 17 snaps all season (part of why they’ve been so bad) so they’re used to it. The Lions seem like the right side, but I can’t put money on a 1-6 team who is travelling across the ocean and who has just fired their offensive coordinator, especially since the public is on the underdog here.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3.5

Confidence: Low

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