San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

October 14, 2017 stevenlourie 2017 NFL Picks, 2017 Week 6 NFL Picks, 49ers, Commanders, NFL Picks

San Francisco 49ers (0-5) at Washington Redskins (2-2)

When this line was -7 last week on the early line, I liked Washington a decent amount, as it looked like they continued to be underrated, as they have been throughout the season. However, for some reason, this line has moved from 7 to 10.5 in the past week, despite the Redskins being on bye and the 49ers losing in overtime in Indianapolis. That’s too many points, especially since the Redskins enter this game banged up. Top cornerback Josh Norman is out, while left tackle Trent Williams will play at less than 100% if he even plays this week. The 49ers, meanwhile, could get promising rookie linebacker Reuben Foster back for the first time since week 1.

I have this line calculated at about -9, so we’re getting decent line value with the 49ers. The 49ers haven’t won a game yet, but they’ve been coming awfully close, taking their last two opponents (Arizona and Indianapolis) to overtime and losing their last 4 games by a combined 11 points. They haven’t faced the toughest schedule, but they should be able to keep it within 10 points in Washington. The Redskins are also in a terrible spot because they have to go to Philadelphia next week, so they could easily overlook the lowly 49ers this week. The early line has the Redskins as 6.5 point underdogs next week and favorites of 6+ are understandably just 54-88 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs of 6+ the following week. There’s not quite enough here for me to be confident in the 49ers, but they seem like the smarter pick.

Washington Redskins 28 San Francisco 49ers 20

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +10.5

Confidence: Low

Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

October 14, 2017 stevenlourie 2017 NFL Picks, 2017 Week 6 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Falcons, NFL Picks

Miami Dolphins (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-1)

The Falcons lost at home before their bye to the Bills back in week 4, but that was largely because they lost the turnover battle by 3. They lost the turnover battle by 3 the previous week as well and still managed to pull out the close victory in Detroit. Despite their 3-1 record, the Falcons are actually -5 in turnover margin, 5th worst in the NFL. Turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis though and it’s actually very impressive that they’ve been able to get off to a strong start despite a poor turnover margin. In terms of first down rate differential, the Falcons rank second at 5.22%.

The bye week came at a great time for the Falcons, who were a little banged up before the bye. They were without right tackle Ryan Schraeder and top edge rusher Vic Beasley in their games against Detroit and Buffalo and then they lost Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, their top-2 receivers, during the Buffalo game. Sanu remains out, but he’s the least important of those 4 players and Jones, Schreader, and Beasley are all set to return this week. At close to full strength, the Falcons are arguably the best team in the entire NFL and have a good chance to return to the Super Bowl if they can play turnover neutral football and avoid more major injuries.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, are one of the worst teams in the league. They were 10-6 a year ago, but that was because they had a very easy schedule (with 5 games against the Jets, Rams, 49ers, and Browns) and because they went 8-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They were already set to take a step back this season record wise, but then they lost quarterback Ryan Tannehill for the year with injury and signed Jay Cutler out of retirement to replace him. Cutler has looked terrible through 4 games and should be benched for backup Matt Moore, who was solid in limited action in place of an injured Tannehill in 2016.

The Dolphins are 2-2, but those wins came over the Chargers and the Matt Cassel led Titans and they easily could have lost both games, while their two losses were not close (by a combined 34 points). The Chargers game was decided by a pair of missed field goals, either one of which would have won the Chargers the game, while the Titans game was decided by a fumble returned for a touchdown. They’ve produced just 60 first downs and 3 offensive touchdowns this season, while allowing 76 first downs and 7 offensive touchdowns, and they rank dead last in first down rate differential at -7.86%.

The Falcons are favored by 12.5 points, but this line should probably be higher, given that this game is between one of the worst teams in the league and arguably the best. The only reason I’m not putting money on the Falcons is because this is a terrible spot for them, with the Super Bowl rematch in New England on deck. Double digit favorites are 56-75 ATS before being underdogs since 2002 and the Falcons could definitely overlook the Dolphins with New England on deck. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have an easy game against the Jets on deck, so they should be 100% focused. Underdogs are 105-66 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. The Falcons should win this game by at least two touchdowns, but I can’t be confident in them because of the spot they’re in.

Atlanta Falcons 28 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -12.5

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

October 14, 2017 stevenlourie 2017 NFL Picks, 2017 Week 6 NFL Picks, Chargers, NFL Picks, Raiders

Los Angeles Chargers (1-4) at Oakland Raiders (2-3)

When I saw Derek Carr was going to be play, I was excited because I thought we’d be getting a significant amount of points with the Chargers, which would have made this a great betting opportunity. The Raiders are obviously better with Carr out there, but Carr is likely not 100% just 2 weeks into a 2-6 week recovery timeline and re-injury is a possibility with this type of back injury. On top of that, the Raiders are in a tough spot with a game against the Chiefs on Thursday night on deck, as favorites are just 59-90 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008.

The Raiders also face an underrated Chargers team this week, so it won’t be an easy return for Carr. The Chargers are just 1-4, but 3 of those losses came by a combined 7 points and they’ve basically had to play 5 road games this season given how few fans they attract in their new home in Los Angeles, so they’re a lot more talented than their record suggests. They’re still around middle of the pack in my roster rankings and they rank 9th in the NFL in first down rate at +2.99%.

However, this line opened at 4, so we’re not getting as many points with the Raiders as I would have expected. I was expecting this line to be about 6 or 6.5, but the oddsmakers might have worried about too much sharp action at that number. I’m still taking the Chargers because they play a lot of close games (12 of last 25 losses by 4 points or fewer) and because the Raiders are in a tough spot with Thursday Night Football on deck, but we aren’t getting enough line value to bet on the Chargers confidently.

Oakland Raiders 23 Los Angeles Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers +4

Confidence: Low

Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

October 14, 2017 stevenlourie 2017 NFL Picks, 2017 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bears, NFL Picks, Ravens

Chicago Bears (1-4) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2)

The Ravens are 3-2, but their 3 wins have come against the Bengals, the Browns, and the Raiders, who were without Derek Carr, right guard Gabe Jackson, and their top-2 cornerbacks. Meanwhile, their 2 losses (Jacksonville and Pittsburgh) came by a combined 58 points, giving them a -7 point differential on the season, despite the winning record and the easy schedule. They were alright to start the year, but have not been the same team since losing right guard Marshal Yanda and defensive tackle Brandon Williams to injury. They rank just 22nd in first down rate differential, just one spot ahead of their opponents this week, the Chicago Bears.

I also have these two teams close in my roster rankings as well, with Chicago getting Danny Trevathan back from suspension this week, so we’re getting good line value with the Bears as 6.5 point underdogs. I have this line calculated at 3.5, as these two teams are much more similar than the general public realizes. I’m holding out for this line to go back to 7, where it briefly was at the beginning of the week, but the Bears are still worth a bet at 6.5. If this line jumps back to a full touchdown between now and game time, I’ll make this a higher confidence pick.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against the spread: Chicago +6.5

Confidence: Medium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

October 14, 2017 stevenlourie 2017 NFL Picks, 2017 Week 6 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Cardinals, NFL Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) at Arizona Cardinals (2-3)

The Buccaneers lost last week 19-14 on Thursday Night to the New England Patriots, but they could have easily won the game and gone to 3-1. They had 26 first downs and 2 offensive touchdowns, while the Patriots had just 23 first downs and 1 offensive touchdown. The difference was that the Patriots made 4 field goals, while the Buccaneers missed 3, including two very makeable ones, either of which would have put the Buccaneers in position for a game winning field goal at the end of the game. The Patriots didn’t have Gronkowski in that game, but the Buccaneers were banged up on a short week too, missing safety TJ Ward and linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander, so it was an impressive performance for Tampa Bay all things considered.

Having played on Thursday Night, the Buccaneers got a long break between their week 5 game and this week 6 game and it couldn’t have come at a better time, given their injury situation. Alexander remains out, but both David and Ward are expected to return this week, which will be a big boost to this defense. With Doug Martin returning from suspension and showing some of his 2015 form, the Buccaneers are a team that could be about to go on a little bit of a run. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 2-3, but both of their wins came in overtime against the 49ers and Colts, two of the worst teams in the NFL. Their 3 losses have come against the Lions, Cowboys, and Eagles, all of whom won by double digits. Last week was their biggest defeat, as they lost 34-7 in Philadelphia.

The Cardinals were a strong 13-3 team in 2015 and were much better than their 7-8-1 record in 2016, but they are not the same team anymore. They lost five starters on defense this off-season, including safeties Tony Jefferson and DJ Swearinger and defensive end Calais Campbell, who were among the best in the NFL at their position in 2016. In addition to those 3 talented starters, the Cardinals are also without left guard Mike Iupati, running back David Johnson, and outside linebacker Markus Golden, who are currently on injured reserve. They’re missing 6 key players from last season’s team and have one of the worst rosters in the NFL as a result.

This line moved from -2.5 in favor of Arizona to -1.5 in favor of Tampa Bay over the past week, likely as a result of Arizona’s big loss, the Buccaneers’ near victory, and the return of key players from injury for Tampa Bay. Normally I like to go against line movement like that, but it’s all between the field goals, so it’s pretty superficial line movement, given that about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. The Buccaneers really only need to win straight up here to cover, so, as long as this line is less than a field goal, Tampa Bay should be worth a small bet. I have this line calculated at -3 in favor of the Buccaneers, which is likely where it would be if Tampa Bay made a couple extra field goals last weekend and won. With a new kicker in place, Tampa Bay should be able to win this one by at least a field goal.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -1.5

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (3-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2)

Both of these teams are off to surprising 3-2 starts, but I think the Jaguars are a little bit more for real than the Rams. Two of the Rams’ three wins came against the Colts and 49ers, two of the worst teams in the league, and they barely beat the latter. They also beat the Cowboys in Dallas, but the Cowboys were without Sean Lee and are not the same team as last year, so that’s not that impressive. Meanwhile, the Jaguars’ 3 wins have come against the Texans, Ravens, and Steelers, by a combined 80 points. Their +56 point differential is significantly better than the Rams’ +31 point differential, despite a tougher schedule.

The Rams are definitely improved offensively this season, but they still have problems on both sides of the ball. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have obvious problems in the passing game and on the offensive line, but they play incredible defense and can execute a conservative offense effectively if their defense plays like it can. I have these two teams about 2 points apart in my rankings, so we’re getting significant value with the Jaguars as mere 2.5 point favorites at home. The Jaguars should be able to win this game by a field goal or more, so the home team should be a smart bet in this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 Los Angeles Rams 14

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville -2.5

Confidence: Medium

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

October 14, 2017October 14, 2017 stevenlourie 2017 NFL Picks, 2017 Week 6 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)

This line shifted from 2.5 in favor of the Chiefs on the early line last week to 4.5 this week, crossing through key lines of 3 and 4. Typically, line movements like that are overreactions to a single week of play and create line value and this game is no different. The line moved because the Steelers lost 30-9 at home last week to the Jaguars, but that was largely because of a -4 turnover margin and turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis.

Teams coming off of a game in which they had a -4 turnover margin, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.1 that following game. A prime example of the inconsistency of turnover margins is the Steelers’ opponent last week the Jaguars, who league the lead with a +10 turnover margin after finishing with a -16 turnover margin in 2016. Given the inconsistency of turnover margins, I still have this line calculated at -2.5, so we’re getting some line value with the Steelers at +4.5, especially since about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or less.

The Steelers’ offense has not been what we’re used to from them, but they’re finally healthy on the offensive line and their defense is as good as it’s been in years. The Chiefs rank 1st in first down rate at 42.63%, but they are unlikely to continue averaging 5.70 yards per carry and they will probably turn the ball over more often over the final 11 games of the season, after just 1 turnover in their first 5 games (the all-time record is 10 turnovers in a 16-game season). They’re also banged up offensively, missing center Mitch Morse, right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, #2 receiver Chris Conley with injury. Meanwhile, they haven’t been the same defensively since losing safety Eric Berry for the season.

They’ve trailed in the 2nd half in 3 of 5 games and rank just 7th in first down rate differential at +3.63%. They’ve had closer calls than their box scores would suggest and the Steelers could easily steal one here, especially since the Chiefs have to play again in 4 days against the Raiders on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 59-90 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. Even if the Steelers don’t win straight up, I still like their chances of keeping this one close and covering as 4.5 point underdogs.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 23

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +4.5

Confidence: High

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

October 14, 2017October 14, 2017 stevenlourie 2017 NFL Picks, 2017 Week 6 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Texans

Cleveland Browns (0-5) at Houston Texans (2-3)

The Browns are 0-5 and tied for the 2nd worst turnover margin in the league at -7. Fortunately for them, turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. For example, the Browns were -2 against the Jets last week and teams that post a -2 turnover margin, on average, have a turnover margin of -0.1 the following week. If you look at other numbers as well, there’s really no week-to-week correlation between turnover margins. That’s great news for a team that has actually moved the ball pretty well this season when they aren’t turning the ball over.

The Browns rank 25th in first down rate differential, which isn’t great, but it’s better than their record suggests and their -2.34% mark is not terrible. They have 8 more first downs than they’ve allowed (103 vs. 95) and they rank 15th in first down rate at 34.45%, above the league average. They haven’t won a game, but they’ve won the first down margin between in 3 of 5 games, including last week’s 17-14 home loss to the Jets, a game in which the Browns had 3 drives down inside the Jets’ 5-yard line that did not result in points (interception, fumble, failed 4th down conversion) and missed 2 field goals (39-yard and 52-yard). The Browns lost by 3 despite winning the first down battle 22-14.

Not only are turnover margins inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, but the Browns also made a smart, proactive decision to improve their turnover margin by benching quarterback DeShone Kizer, who has been responsible for 11 of the Browns’ 13 turnovers, despite playing just 81.1% of the team’s offensive snaps. In addition to the turnovers, Kizer was completing just 50.9% of his passes for an average of 5.35 YPA. The 2nd round rookie was a disaster in 5 starts and will be replaced by 2016 5th round pick Kevin Hogan, who has significantly outplayed him in limited action this season, completing 68.9% of his passes for 9.92 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Hogan might not be great in his first career start, but going with him instead of Kizer increases their likelihood of winning this game.

Their big mistake might have been not going to Hogan sooner, as the Browns’ schedule has been pretty easy so far (Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, NY Jets) and gets harder going forward. They get lucky this week though, as they head to Houston to face a Texans team that just lost their two best defensive players, defensive end JJ Watt and outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus, for the season with injuries. The Texans’ offense is improved with rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson under center and 2nd year wide receiver Will Fuller playing well since his return from a broken collarbone, but they still have major problems on the offensive line and now have major problems on defense too.

They shouldn’t be favored by double digits against anyone. This line was -8.5 a week ago on the early line, but moved to 10 despite the losses of Watt and Mercilus because people are overreacting to the Browns’ loss to the Jets, a game the Browns likely would have won if they had played Hogan all game. The one concern with taking the Browns is that the Texans are going into a bye and teams are 65-24 ATS as 6+ point home favorites before a bye since 2002, but the Texans shouldn’t be favored by this many points and will have a very hard time covering as 10 point favorites without Watt and Mercilus. I have this line calculated at -5.5 in favor of the Texans, so we’re getting a ton of line value with the visitors. This is my Pick of the Week.

Houston Texans 23 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +10

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

October 11, 2017October 12, 2017 stevenlourie 2017 NFL Picks, 2017 Week 6 NFL Picks, Eagles, NFL Picks, Panthers

Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) at Carolina Panthers (4-1)

Ordinarily, in a Thursday night non-conference matchup like this, the smart move is to take home favorites, as they are 35-18 ATS all-time. It makes sense that better teams would cover at a high rate at home on a short week. Unfortunately, the Panthers, home favorites here, are not the better of these two teams, as I have these two teams about 2 points apart in my rankings. Both teams are 4-1, but the Panthers are not a top level team without Greg Olsen and Ryan Kalil, who remain out of the lineup on offense. The Panthers have had good offensive performances in the past 2 weeks against a pair of bad defenses (Detroit and New England), but they were held to just 13 points at home in week 3 by the Saints, who are not a good defense either.

The Eagles are by far the best defense the Panthers have faced all season, especially with Fletcher Cox expected back from a 2 game absence on defense, after practicing in full on Wednesday. The Eagles are likely going to be without right tackle Lane Johnson on a short week with a concussion, but they still have overall the more talented roster. On the season, they are +28 in first downs and +2 in offensive touchdowns, while the Panthers are +14 and +0 in those 2 categories respectively. We’re getting good line value with the Eagles, who are worth a bet at +3.5. I would hold off on +3 though, as about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal exactly.

Also, by request, I’m going to be posting lines I lock in early in the week during my Thursday Night writeups this season, so readers can lock them in before they move. These are not all my picks for the week, just picks where I think the line may move in an unfavorable direction (usually underdogs). The rest of the writeups will continue to be posted over the weekend as normal.

CLE +10 @ HOU

PIT +4.5 @ KC

Carolina Panthers 24 Philadelphia Eagles 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3.5

Confidence: Medium