NFL Picks

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 12 NFL Picks, Commanders, Falcons, NFL Picks

Atlanta Falcons (5-6) at Washington Commanders (6-5)

A week ago on the early line, the Commanders were favored by three points at home over the Falcons, but this line has since shifted to four, a significant shift, as about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. Normally significant line movements like that tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play and I think that’s the case here, as my calculated line is still at Washington -3. When a home team is favored by exactly a field goal, that usually means they are slightly, but not significantly better than their opponents and I think that’s the case here, whereas a four point line would only be justified if the Commanders were significantly better.

The Falcons are a game behind the Commanders in the standings, but they actually have a slight edge in schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 11th, while the Commanders rank 17th. My roster rankings have the Commanders as the better team, as the Falcons have largely overachieved their talent level this season, while the Commanders are significantly healthier now than they were earlier in the year and have played better since turning to Taylor Heinicke under center, but, either way, these two teams are closer together than this line suggests. There isn’t quite enough here for the Falcons to be worth betting, but the most likely outcome of this game is the Commanders winning by a field goal, so the Falcons at +4 should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Washington Commanders 27 Atlanta Falcons 24

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +4

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 12 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Chargers, NFL Picks

Los Angeles Chargers (5-5) at Arizona Cardinals (4-7)

This game is a tough call. I think both of these teams are overrated and not as good as their record. The Chargers are 5-5, but their five wins have come by a combined 23 points, while their five losses have come by a combined 54 points, giving them a point differential of -31 which ranks 23rd in the NFL. They’re even worse in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 27th, about five points below average, which is more predictive than point differential. They’re getting a little bit healthier with talented wide receiver Keenan Allen returning last week, but they also remains without their other talented wide receiver Mike Williams, stud left tackle Rashawn Slater, expected top cornerback JC Jackson, and stud edge defender Joey Bosa, who would be among their best and most important players if healthy.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 4-7 with a -56 point differential, fourth worst in the NFL, despite a +3 turnover margin, which is not consistent week-to-week. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, they rank 25th, about four points below average, and they are even worse in my roster rankings, about 7.5 points below average, as injuries continue to mount, primarily on the offensive line, where they are missing four expected starters. Meanwhile, their defense is also without top cornerback Byron Murphy.

I’m going to take the Chargers in this game for pick ‘em purposes for two reasons. One is that this line favors the Chargers by 2.5 and, while that’s right where I have this line calculated, the single most likely outcome of this game is the Chargers winning by exactly a field goal, as they are the better team and field goals are the most common margin of victory. On top of that, the Chargers tend to be better than expected on the road, as a result of their lack of homefield advantage in Los Angeles, going 27-16 ATS on the road since moving in 2017, as opposed to 17-27 ATS at home. This is a no confidence pick, but the Chargers seem like the better side. I would probably take the Cardinals at +3 though. That’s how close this one is for me.

Los Angeles Chargers 31 Arizona Cardinals 28

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -2.5

Confidence: None

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bills, Lions, NFL Picks

Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Detroit Lions (4-6)

A week ago on the early line, the Bills were 10-point favorites for this game in Detroit, but the line has since moved to 9.5. That’s not a huge line movement, but 10 is a key number, with about 6% of games decided by exactly 10 points, and the line movement happened despite the fact that the Lions will be missing top cornerback Jeff Okudah and their starting guards Evan Brown and Jonah Jackson this week. The primary reason for the line movement is the Lions pulled the upset over the Giants last week, but that is not as impressive as it might seem, as the Giants were an overrated team that was nowhere near as good as their 7-2 record, with all seven of their wins coming by one score and five coming against teams that are among the worst in the league (4-7 or worse).

The Bills, meanwhile, almost always blow out their opponents, with an average margin of victory of 20.4 points across 19 wins over the past two seasons (19-10), and they are favored by 12.5 points on my calculated line against a mediocre Lions team that is missing several key players due to injury. There isn’t enough here for the Bills to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes, as this seems likely to be the Bills’ 18th double digit win over the past two seasons.

Buffalo Bills 31 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -9.5

Confidence: Low

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 12 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, NFL Picks

New York Giants (7-3) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)

A week ago on the early line, the Cowboys were 6.5 point favorites, but this line has since shifted all the way to 10, as a result of the Cowboys’ blowout win in Minnesota and the Giants’ blowout loss in Detroit. Normally I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements like this because they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play, but in this case I think the line movement is justified, not only because of the results of last week, but also because the Giants are now missing their two best cornerbacks, Adoree Jackson and Fabian Moreau, as well as several offensive linemen. On top of that, I think the line was too low at 6.5 to begin with.

The Giants are 7-3, but that’s a very misleading record. In addition to their blowout loss to a sub .500 Lions team last week, their second multi-score loss of the season, the Giants’ seven wins have all come by one score, with just two coming against teams that are currently better than 4-7. As a result, the Giants have just a +1 point differential, despite a relatively easy schedule. The Cowboys have the same record at 7-3, but they have a +84 point differential (2nd best in the NFL), despite facing a tougher schedule. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Cowboys rank 7th, 4.5 points above average, while the Giants rank 27th, 4.5 points below average.

That’s despite the fact that the Cowboys were without starting quarterback Dak Prescott for five games earlier this season. He has since returned and the Cowboys are now relatively healthy overall, while the Giants are going the other way injury wise, leading to the Cowboys having a 12-point edge in my roster rankings. Given that, we’re actually still getting some line value with the Cowboys, as my calculated line favors them by 14 points. I wouldn’t bet on the Cowboys at 10, but if this line drops down to 9.5, they would be worth betting at that number and, either way, the Cowboys are the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Dallas Cowboys 27 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: Dallas -10

Confidence: Low

New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 12 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Patriots, Vikings

New England Patriots (6-4) at Minnesota Vikings (8-2)

Normally the rule of thumb on a short week is to take the home team as long as they are favored and as long as it is a non-divisional game, as it’s very tough for a team to go on the road on a short week and face an unfamiliar opponent, unless they happen to be significantly better than their opponent. All in all, non-divisional home favorites cover at a 62.0% rate on Thursday Night Football and that trend applies to this game, with the Patriots on the road facing the Vikings in this Thanksgiving matchup.

It’s also typically a good idea to bet on teams who were just blown out, like the Vikings were last week against the Cowboys, as teams tend to be overlooked, underrated, and embarrassed after a blowout loss, with teams covering at a 58.6% rate after a loss by 35 points or more. That drops to 52.1% if we just look at teams that are favored, but, at the very least, that’s a good sign that we shouldn’t avoid the Vikings just because they were blown out last week and are now favored.

I can’t guarantee that the Vikings will be overlooked or embarrassed, but we are getting more line value with them than we were a week ago, as this line has shifted from favoring the Vikings by 3.5 points on the early line last week to favoring them by 2.5 points this week, a bigger shift than you might realize, with 1 in 6 games decided by exactly a field goal. Despite that, it’s hard to get excited about betting on the Vikings this week as, even with that line movement, we’re still getting some line value with the Patriots.

The Vikings are 8-2, but they’ve benefitted from a 7-0 record in games decided by one score and they actually have a significantly worse point differential (-2) than the 6-4 Patriots (+44). The gap between these two teams is significant in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency as well, with the 20th ranked Vikings being 1.5 points below average and the 14th ranked Patriots being a half point above average. 

Minnesota is more talented than that suggests, but they’re missing three of their top-4 cornerbacks and their stud left tackle Christian Darrisaw, so I have the Patriots as the slightly better team overall, giving us a calculated line of Minnesota -1. That’s not much line value with the Patriots, but it’s enough to give me pause about betting on the Vikings, even in a good spot. I would still consider betting on the Vikings if Patriots center David Andrews doesn’t play and Vikings’ interior defender Dalvin Tomlinson does, but both players are likely game time decisions, so I’m leaving this as a low confidence pick for now.

Minnesota Vikings 20 New England Patriots 16

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -2.5

Confidence: Low

2022 Week 11 NFL Picks

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 11 NFL Picks, NFL Picks

Pick of the Week

PHI -6.5 @ IND

High Confidence Picks

ATL -2.5 vs. CHI

Medium Confidence Picks

KC -5 @ LAC

HOU +3 vs. WAS

PIT +4 vs. CIN

SF -8 vs. ARZ

LV +3 @ DEN

BAL -12.5 vs. CAR

Low Confidence Picks

CLE +7.5 vs. BUF

DET +3 @ NYG

MIN +1.5 vs. DAL

No Confidence Picks

TEN +3 @ GB

NYJ +3.5 @ NE

NO -3 vs. LAR

Upset Picks

MIN +105 vs. DAL

LV +125 @ DEN

HOU +140 vs. WAS

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 11 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs, NFL Picks

Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)

The Chargers are 5-4, but their only win by more than one score came by 10 points against arguably the worst team in the league in the Houston Texans, while two of their losses came by 14 points or more, giving them a point differential of -28 (23rd in the NFL). That’s despite a +2 turnover margin, which is not predictive, and they are even worse than that in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 30th, 5.5 points below average, which is much more predictive than turnover margin. 

The biggest problem for the Chargers has been their injuries, with stud left tackle Rashawn Slater, their two talented wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, stud edge defender Joey Bosa, and expected #1 cornerback JC Jackson, among others, all out for extended periods of time. It seems like Allen and Williams could return this week, after practicing throughout the week, but they only practiced in a limited fashion and they are returning from injuries that have cost them seven games and two games respectively, so it’s far from a guarantee that they’ll play, that they’ll play at full strength, and that they’ll play the full game.

With Allen and Williams at least somewhat likely to return in some fashion, the Chargers are only 1.5 points below average in my roster rankings, which isn’t great, but it’s better than where they are in schedule adjusted efficiency. However, the Chiefs still fare much better in both, ranking 2nd in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 8 points above average, and 4th in my roster rankings, about 9 points above average. Not only do the Chiefs rank 3rd in the NFL in point differential at +64, but they have done it despite a -4 turnover margin, which should improve going forward.

The Chargers also have next to no homefield advantage in Los Angeles, which has been the case since they arrived in the city in 2017, as they lack a local fanbase. As a result of largely playing in front of crowds that favor the road team, the Chargers are 16-27 ATS at home since moving in 2017, as opposed to 27-16 ATS on the road. Chiefs fans especially show up to games in Los Angeles and, unsurprisingly, the Chargers are 1-3 ATS against the Chiefs in Los Angeles. I want to wait on the status of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen before locking in a bigger bet, but getting the Chiefs as just 5-point favorites in what amounts to a neutral site game against a still banged up Chargers team seems like a great value. This is a medium confidence pick for now, but could end up as a high confidence pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 27 Los Angeles Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -5

Confidence: Medium

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 11 NFL Picks, Cowboys, NFL Picks, Vikings

Dallas Cowboys (6-3) at Minnesota Vikings (8-1)

The Vikings are 8-1, but they have won all seven of their one-score games and have won the turnover battle by 8 (2nd best in the NFL), both of which are not sustainable long-term. They beat the Bills last week, but Buffalo was missing several key defenders and, despite that, the Vikings lost the first down rate battle and yards per play battle by 9.04% and 0.66 respectively, needing to win the turnover battle by two and to score a defensive touchdown to barely win in overtime. 

Even with that win taken into account, the Vikings still rank just 19th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about one point below average, which is much more predictive than turnover margin. The Cowboys are a couple games worse in the standings, but rank about 3.5 points above average in schedule adjusted efficiency, 8th in the league, even though starting quarterback Dak Prescott missed five games with injury. The public and the oddsmakers both seem to understand that though, leading to the Vikings actually being 2-point home underdogs in this game.

With that in mind, I actually like the Vikings for pick ‘em purposes. While there is a significant gap between these two teams in schedule adjusted efficiency, my roster rankings have them much closer together, with the Vikings still among the most talented teams in the league, despite what the statistics say, and I think the Vikings could play with a chip on their shoulder being underdogs yet again. There isn’t enough here for the Vikings to be worth betting against the spread, but they seem like the right side for pick ‘em purposes and a small bet on the money line at +105 makes sense as well, as the Vikings should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game here at home.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Dallas Cowboys 23 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +1.5

Confidence: Low

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bears, Falcons, NFL Picks

Chicago Bears (3-7) at Atlanta Falcons (4-6)

A week ago on the early line, the Falcons were 5-point favorites, but this line has since shrunk to favor the Falcons by 3, a significant line movement, considering about 1 in 5 games are decided by 3-4 points exactly. That is likely due to the Falcons losing to the Panthers, but the Falcons split the yards per play and first down rate battle in that game, as the Bears did in their loss to the Lions, so I don’t think those results warrant this line movement. I normally like to go against significant week-to-week line movements like that and my calculated line actually has the Falcons favored by 7 points, as the Falcons have a 5.5-point edge over the Bears in schedule adjusted efficiency and a 5-point edge in my roster rankings. 

The Bears have been better on offense in recent weeks, but their defense has been horrendous since trading away Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith, two of their best defensive players. The Falcons are bettable as mere 3-point home favorites and, while this is a small bet for now, I would increase this to a high confidence pick if top cornerback AJ Terrell returns from injury for the Falcons, a strong possibility and something that would be a big boost after a 3-game absence, and/or if this line drops down to 2.5, which also seems like a possibility, with the public all over the Bears for some reason.

Update: -2.5s are showing up Sunday morning, so I am going to increase this bet.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Chicago Bears 24

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -2.5

Confidence: High

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 11 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals, NFL Picks

Arizona Cardinals (4-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers (5-4) in Mexico City

Typically the rule of thumb is to take the favorite in neutral site international games, as the better team tends to have a bigger international fan base and tends to be better suited to play in a weird situation like this, leading to the favorite covering at a 62.8% rate (27-16 ATS) all-time. The 49ers are 8-point favorites, but that’s probably not high enough. The Cardinals are 4-6, which isn’t bad, but they have needed a +5 turnover margin (5th best in the NFL) just to sustain that mediocre record and turnover margins are not predictive week-to-week. Meanwhile, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive, the Cardinals rank just 25th, four points below average.

My roster rankings have the Cardinals even worse, 8.5 points below average, due to injuries, primarily on the offensive line, with arguably their top-4 offensive linemen left tackle DJ Humphries, left guard Justin Pugh, right guard Will Hernandez and center Rodney Hudson all out. Starting quarterback Kyler Murray is also questionable and, while backup Colt McCoy is a decent replacement, he doesn’t give this offense the same upside as Murray, especially behind an injured offensive line and, even if Murray plays, he might not be quick as mobile this week, due to his lingering hamstring injury, also a problem behind a banged up offensive line.

The 49ers, meanwhile, are much better than their 5-4 record, ranking 8th in point differential at +35 and 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency, five points above average. The 49ers are also healthier now than they were earlier in the season. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle, and left tackle Trent Williams are all among their best offensive players and all missed time earlier this season, but all three have returned, a huge boost for an offense that also got a big boost from adding Christian McCaffrey in a trade a few weeks ago. The 49ers’ defense also got healthier out of the bye, with linebackers Dre Greenlaw and Azeez Al-Shaair and safety Jimmie Ward returning to action last week. My calculated line has the 49ers favored by 11.5 on a neutral site and, in a good spot as well, I think the 49ers are bettable.

San Francisco 49ers 28 Arizona Cardinals 16

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -8

Confidence: Medium