Panthers

Carolina Panthers trade OLB Jon Beason to the New York Giants

stevenlourie Giants, Panthers, Uncategorized

Trade for Panthers: There was a time when Jon Beason was one of the better middle linebackers in football and he was given a 5 year, 50 million dollar deal with 25 million guaranteed after the 2010 season, but he missed 28 of 32 games in 2011 and 2012 with injuries and, even at just 28 years old, those injuries have sapped his ability. Upon his return this season, he was moved to a two down outside linebacker role and had his base salary restricted down to just 1 million (with incentives up to 3.25 million). After struggling to start the season, he was benched and now he has been shipped to the Giants for a late round pick. Beason wasn’t serving any purpose for them. Credit them for getting something for him, even if it was just a late round pick

Grade: A

Trade for Giants: The Giants definitely need linebacker help and they aren’t completely out of it even at 0-4 because of their division and they can cut Beason penalty free after the season. However, this move probably won’t improve them at all.

Grade: C

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Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2)

Carolina was one of my biggest, if not my biggest sleeper coming into the season. I had them winning 12 games and the NFC South. They finished last season playing very good defense, allowing 21.2 points per game in the final 12 games of last season after they moved Luke Kuechly to the middle linebacker, despite facing top-16 offenses in 8 of those 12 games. They looked poised to continue that into 2013, after adding Star Lotulelei and Kawaan Short in the 1st and 2nd round pick of the draft. Offensively, they finished last season scoring 26.0 points per game after Cam Newton put a slow start to his sophomore year behind him. That wasn’t anything ridiculous for them because they scored 25.4 points per game in 2011. In Newton’s 3rd year in the league, he looked poised to have the best year of his career.

In the first 2 games of the season, that looked pretty wrong. The defense was excellent, possibly even better than expected as Star Lotulelei looked like a legitimate Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate. However, their offense was bogged down by poor game plans put together by Offensive Coordinator Mike Shula, who was promoted from quarterbacks coach after Rob Chudzinski left for Cleveland. They also struggled to close games later, something that had plagued them since 2011, Head Coach Ron Rivera’s 1st season with the team. That pushed them to 2-14 in games decided by a touchdown or less under Rivera. That’s something that usually evens out in the long run, but it was fair to wonder if the Panthers would ever be able to close out games well under Ron Rivera.

Week 3, however, they destroyed the Giants 38-0 and looked like the team I expected them to be before the season. Yes, the Giants aren’t very good, but beating a team by 38 points, no matter who they are, is an incredibly impressive accomplishment. In that game, their offensive game plan was much better, utilizing more zone runs and shots downfield, which is how you best utilize Cam Newton.

Ron Rivera actually was less conservative with his decision making, as well. They didn’t have to close things out and that could still be a weakness, but I feel a lot better around them going forward and their ability to blow out opponents. They are moving the ball very well, converting 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of downs 79% of the time, while allowing opponents to do so just 72% of the time, a +7% differential they is actually 7th in the NFL.

They also benefitted from having a bye last week. Road favorites, like the Panthers are here, tend to dominate off of a bye. Teams are 44-17 ATS in this situation since 2002. It makes sene. Good teams tend to be very focused off of a bye and this allows them to play up to their talent level. The bye should be very good for the Panthers for that reason. They certainly have the talent to be favored here in Arizona and could easily blow them out. I’m very confident they cover a very short line here.

Carolina Panthers 27 Arizona Cardinals 16

Pick against spread: Carolina -1.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers, Uncategorized

Last week: 14 (+3)

The one week I give up on the Panthers, this happens. They looked exactly as I expected they would this season last week and then some. They could easily be 3-0 right now and though my 12-win prediction for them isn’t coming true, last week’s win could easily propel them to 10 wins and a post-season appearance. They have to continue what they did last week and avoid the mistakes (vanilla offense, conservative decision making, lack of read option and quarterback run plays) they were making in the first 2 weeks of the season.

Week 3 Studs

RT Byron Bell

LT Jordan Gross

LG Amini Silatolu

RE Greg Hardy

LE Charles Johnson

Week 3 Duds

RG Chris Scott

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New York Giants at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Giants, Panthers, Uncategorized

New York Giants (0-2) at Carolina Panthers (0-2)

The Panthers are now 2-14 since 2011 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Part of my reasoning for them having a big season was that their record in close games would even out, as it always does in the long run, but it’s very possible that won’t happen this year. They need to fire Ron Rivera. They should have done it last off-season (can you imagine how good they’d with be Chip Kelly, you know his #1 choice would have been working with Cam Newton?).

You can’t put the entire 2-14 record in close games on him, but he has to take the blame. Last week, the reason they lost on their final drive was because they only had 4 healthy defensive backs, but you could also blame Rivera for opting to kick a field goal to push the lead to 6 rather than trying to ice it on 4th and 1 late. Instead of putting his faith in his expensive running game or his great short yardage quarterback, he put his faith in a defense that literally didn’t have enough healthy bodies to be successful.

Also, because Rivera is a defensive Head Coach, the bulk of the offensive responsibilities have fallen on offensive coordinator Mike Shula, who is doing a terrible job in his first season in that position. That’s a big part of the reason why the Panthers have struggled to move the ball early on this season. Cam Newton did not pick up where he left off last season, completing 60.7% of his passes, but for just 5.8 YPA in this unnecessarily conservative offense, with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. He’s also taken off running just 9 times for 53 yards. Only 20 of Newton’s 61 pass attempts have gone more than 10 yards through the air and the new offensive system has to be blamed for that.

Fortunately, it’s not all bad news, as the defense has picked up where it left off, when it allowed 21.2 points per game in the final 12 games of last season. After holding the Seahawks to 12 in their opener, they held Buffalo to 17 last week, before that final drive, in which, of course, they didn’t have enough healthy defensive backs.

The Panthers will have enough healthy defensive backs this week, unless they have another rash of in game injuries, but they are literally using replacement level talent in the secondary throughout this week, with Charles Godfrey done for the season, Josh Norman and Quintin Mikell out for this one, and Josh Thomas also possibly out. Their secondary was not very talented to begin with, but this just makes things even worse. Their tremendous front 7 has been masking their putrid back 4 over the past 2 seasons and they could continue to do so this week, but they’ll have their work cut out for them.

If the Panthers bounce back offensively and hold it together defensively, they could play well enough that this won’t need to be a close game and there’s always the possibility that they finally are able to win a close one, but I don’t know how likely the best case scenario is for the Panthers this week. The Giants, meanwhile, come into this game 0-2 as well, largely because of a -8 turnover margin that is by far the league’s worst this season. Fortunately, this type of stuff is pretty inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that have a -4 turnover margin one week average about +0 the following week and the same thing for a team that previously had a +4 turnover margin.

They also tend to be a very good team on the road, going 47-33 SU and 50-30 ATS on the road since 2004, as opposed to 44-33 SU and 37-40 ATS at home in that same time period. They also usually start seasons well, so I find it hard to believe they’ll start this season 0-3. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, the same season as Eli Manning became the starter, the Giants are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 30-42 in the second 8 games of the season.

I also like the Giants in a situation where they’re being doubted, though I’d like them better if they were dogs and facing an opponent that was publicly perceived as better than the Panthers. The public is also placing everything they have on the Giants. Combine that with the possibility that the Panthers actually break out this week and I’m nervous to bet either side. The Giants should be the right side, but I’m not confident.

New York Giants 23 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against spread: NY Giants -1.5

Confidence: None

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Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#14)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers, Uncategorized

Last week: 5

The Panthers are now 2-14 since 2011 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Part of my reasoning for them having a big season was that their record in close games would even out, as it always does in the long run, but it’s very possible that won’t happen this year. They need to fire Ron Rivera. They should have done it last off-season (can you imagine how good they’d with be Chip Kelly, you know his #1 choice would have been working with Cam Newton?). You can’t put the entire 2-14 record in close games on him, but he has to take the blame. This week, the reason they lost on their final drive was because they only had 4 healthy defensive backs, but you could also blame Rivera for opting to kick a field goal to push the lead to 6 rather than trying to ice it on 4th and 1 late. Instead of putting his faith in his expensive running game or his great short yardage quarterback, he put his faith in a defense that literally didn’t have enough healthy bodies to be successful.

Week 2 Studs

TE Ben Hartsock

DT Star Lotulelei

Week 2 Duds

QB Cam Newton

RT Byron Bell

LOLB Jon Beason

ROLB Thomas Davis

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Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bills, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1)

The Panthers were my biggest sleeper coming into the season. In 2012, The Panthers won 6 of their final 9 games to finish 7-9. Among those 6 wins were victories over division winners Washington and Atlanta, as well as a victory in New Orleans against the Saints. Newton was noticeably better in the 2nd half of the season, completing 58.4% of his passes for an average of 7.9 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, all while rushing for 394 yards and 4 touchdowns. That was opposed to 57.0% completion, 8.1 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions with 347 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns in the 1st half of the season.

Heading into his 3rd season in the league, it’s very possible he’s turned a corner, which would be a very good thing for this team. In their final 8 games, they averaged 26.0 points per game, which would have been tied for 8th in the NFL last season. That’s no fluke, as they ranked 5th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game in 2011. At the very least, Newton’s early sophomore slump should be a thing of the past and this should be one of the better offensive teams in the NFL.

The other big turnaround for this team was an improved defense. In their final 12 games of the season, they allowed just 21.2 points per game, which would have been 12th in the NFL over the course of the whole season, even though they played top-16 scoring offenses in 8 of those 12 games. That was opposed to 27.3 points per game allowed in the first 4 games of the season and 26.8 points per game allowed in 2011. The obvious change from week 4 to week 5 was moving eventual Defensive Rookie of the Year Luke Kueckly to middle linebacker and giving him an every down linebacker role, but you can’t give him all the credit. Young players like Greg Hardy also broke out as the season went on defensively

I’m certainly not giving up on the Panthers after they played tough a Seahawks team that could easily win the Super Bowl. Their defense looked as dominant as I expected, particularly the front 7, even further fortified by the addition of Star Lotulelei. However, their offense didn’t look good, even against a tough Seattle defense. The Panthers admitted their game plan was too conservative and it really was as they frequently eschewed 4th and 1 chances and just 6 of Newton’s 23 attempts went 10+ yards downfield. That’s not even close to how you best utilize Cam Newton.

I’ll give them another chance and I like how the coaching staff admitted their mistake, but if they don’t live up to their talent, it’ll be because of the Ron Rivera/Mike Shula combination.That being said, I’m fairly confident that they’ll be able to beat the Bills by 3 or more. On top of everything I just said, the NFC is just so much better than the AFC this year so I’m frequently going to take the NFC team when there’s a non-conference matchup.

Carolina Panthers 27 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against spread: Carolina -3

Confidence Level: Medium

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Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers, Uncategorized

I’m not changing the Panthers as my pick to go from out of the playoffs to a first round bye after they played tough a Seahawks team that could easily win the Super Bowl. Their defense looked as dominant as I expected, particularly the front 7, even further fortified by the addition of Star Lotulelei. However, their offense didn’t look good, even against a tough Seattle defense. The Panthers admit their game plan was too conservative and it really was as they frequently eschewed 4th and 1 chances and just 6 of Newton’s 23 attempts went 10+ yards downfield. That’s not even close to how you best utilize Cam Newton. I’ll give them another chance and I like how the coaching staff admitted their mistake, but if they don’t live up to their talent, it’ll be because of the Ron Rivera/Mike Shula combination. That would leave the door open for the Saints or Lions to go from the playoffs to a first round bye. All of the NFC teams are going to beat up on each other and 11 wins could get you a first round bye.

Week 1 Studs

RE Greg Hardy

DT Star Lotulelei

Week 1 Duds

LG Chris Scott

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Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Panthers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)

I think the Seahawks are a little overrated because of how good their home field advantage is. Fortunately, as long as they’re home, they are the toughest team in the NFL to beat, but if they have to go on the road, they’re definitely beatable. Considering their home/road disparity goes back so far, I think they’re currently an above average team that looks elite at home, but show its true colors on the road. Going back to 2007, they are 15-37 on the road, getting outscored by 6.63 points per game, and 32-18 at home, outscoring opponents by 6.32 points per game.

Last season, they went 3-5 on the road, including losses in St. Louis, Miami, Arizona, and Detroit, all sub-.500 teams a year ago. In the post-season, they were down 14-0 in Washington before Robert Griffin got hurt and they lost the following week in Atlanta.  At home, they outscored opponents by 18.5 points per game (30.4-11.9) last season, beating 4 eventual playoff teams, and on the road, they outscored opponents by just 2.3 points per game (21.1-18.8), despite playing just one playoff team in that stretch (San Francisco).

The good news for the Seahawks is they got better as last season went on, both at home and away, thanks to the improvement of rookie quarterback Russell Wilson. I think that has a good chance of carrying over in 2013, at least somewhat. However, The Panthers are an underrated team that is going to be a very tough team for the Seahawks to beat in Carolina, especially on the East Coast at 1 PM ET, a situation the Seahawks haven’t won in since 1998.

In 2012, The Panthers won 6 of their final 9 games to finish 7-9. Among those 6 wins were victories over division winners Washington and Atlanta, as well as a victory in New Orleans against the Saints. Newton was noticeably better in the 2nd half of the season, completing 58.4% of his passes for an average of 7.9 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, all while rushing for 394 yards and 4 touchdowns. That was opposed to 57.0% completion, 8.1 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions with 347 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns in the 1st half of the season.

Heading into his 3rd season in the league, it’s very possible he’s turned a corner, which would be a very good thing for this team. In their final 8 games, they averaged 26.0 points per game, which would have been tied for 8th in the NFL last season. That’s no fluke, as they ranked 5th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game in 2011. At the very least, Newton’s early sophomore slump should be a thing of the past and this should be one of the better offensive teams in the NFL.

The other big turnaround for this team was an improved defense. In their final 12 games of the season, they allowed just 21.2 points per game, which would have been 12th in the NFL over the course of the whole season, even though they played top-16 scoring offenses in 8 of those 12 games. That was opposed to 27.3 points per game allowed in the first 4 games of the season and 26.8 points per game allowed in 2011. The obvious change from week 4 to week 5 was moving eventual Defensive Rookie of the Year Luke Kueckly to middle linebacker and giving him an every down linebacker role, but you can’t give him all the credit.

Young players like Greg Hardy also broke out as the season went on defensively. He and Charles Johnson give them one of the best 4-3 defensive end duos in the NFL, with Hardy moving to defensive tackle on passing downs and talented reserve end Frank Alexander coming in to allow the Panthers to play 3 defensive ends at once. This season, Star Lotulelei and Kawaan Short come in as rookies with Dwan Edwards at defensive tackle and give the Panthers one of the best defensive lines in the NFL.

At linebacker, they have Jon Beason back healthy with Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly. Their secondary is a problem, but you can mask a mediocre secondary with good front 7 play. The 49ers have been doing it for 2 seasons and the Panthers did it to end last season. For those reasons, I like their chances of carrying their strong finish into 2013. As long as I’m getting more than a field goal with the Panthers, this is my Pick of the Week, especially since the public continue to put all their money on Seattle.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Carolina Panthers 16 Seattle Seahawks 13 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: Carolina +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Carolina Panthers 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Panthers, Uncategorized

QB Cam Newton (Carolina)

Newton was noticeably better in the 2nd half of last season, with 1964 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, all while rushing for 394 yards and 4 touchdowns. Heading into his 3rd season in the league, it’s very possible he’s turned a corner permanently. There’s immense upside here.

Projection: 4000 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 750 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns (359 pts standard, 409 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB DeAngelo Williams (Carolina)

8/20/13: With Stewart possibly starting the season on the PUP, Williams gets a stock up. He had 173 carries last season with Stewart missing time and could see even more this season as the Panthers want to have a little bit more of a traditional running game. Cam Newton and goal line back Mike Tolbert will still steal a bunch of touchdowns and Newton is still a good bet to take off a bunch of times on his own though and Williams just isn’t that talented anymore.

Williams did average 4.3 yards per carry on 173 carries last year, but only because of a random 210 yard/21 carry performance in week 17 against a laughable New Orleans defense. Before that, he was averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. Going into his age 30 season this year, things aren’t going to get better.

Projection: 180 carries for 720 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 18 catches for 130 receiving yards (121 pts standard, 139 pts PPR)

RB Jonathan Stewart (Carolina)

8/20/13: Stewart is the more talented of Carolina’s two backs, but he can’t stay healthy. After missing 7 games with injury last season, Stewart is a candidate to start the season on the PUP, which would cost him the first 6 weeks of the season, this according to Head Coach Ron Rivera. Stewart had 93 carries in 9 games last year. He might not exceed that by much this season.

Injuries limited Stewart to just 3.6 yards per carry and 93 carries, but he’s only 26 and had only missed 2 games in the prior 4 years, when he averaged 4.8 yards per carry. Provided he’s healthy, he should be able to be a solid starting running back this season and keep the aging DeAngelo Williams off the field as much as possible.

Projection: 100 carries for 440 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 15 catches for 100 receiving yards (84 pts standard, 99 pts PPR)

RB Mike Tolbert (Carolina)

Tolbert rushed for 3.4 yards per carry on 54 carries while scoring 7 touchdowns as a short yardage back, which is impressive considering his role. He should be able to do the same again in 2013. Tolbert also is a good pass catcher, leading Carolina backs with 27 catches and serving essentially as a move tight end in certain situations.

Projection: 60 carries for 210 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 30 catches for 270 yards (78 pts standard, 108 pts PPR)

WR Steve Smith (Carolina)

Steve Smith remains the #1 receiver, catching 73 passes for 1174 yards and 4 touchdowns, but it’s unclear how much longer he can do that for, as he’s going into his age 34 season. Over the next 2-4 years, Smith can be expected to go from top flight receiver to complementary player to gone. That’s just what happens to receivers around this age. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37.

Projection: 62 catches for 1020 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (132 pts standard, 194 pts PPR)

WR Brandon LaFell (Carolina)

Their other starting receiver is Brandon LaFell, a marginal pass catcher. He’s a borderline starting receiver at best though and will never be a long term #1 wide receiver. He could see career high numbers, though that wouldn’t be saying a lot.

Projection: 50 catches for 750 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (105 pts standard, 155 pts PPR)

TE Greg Olsen (Carolina)

Greg Olsen was a 1st round pick in the 2007 NFL Draft and finally came into his own last season, catching a career high 69 passes for a career high 843 yards and 5 touchdowns, serving as a very good secondary receiver for Cam Newton, including 35 catches for 448 yards and 4 touchdowns in the 2nd half of the season. With Smith expected to decline a little and Newton expected to improve, Olsen could even surpass last year’s numbers.

Projection: 71 catches for 880 receiving yards 8 touchdowns (136 pts standard, 207 pts PPR)

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