Raiders

Oakland Raiders 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Raiders, Uncategorized

Needs

Defensive Tackle

The Raiders’ current trio of Antonio Smith, Justin Ellis, and Pat Sims at defensive tackle is underwhelming. On top of that, Smith is going into an age 34 contract year, while Sims is a free agent this off-season. Ellis has the best long-term potential, as he was a 4th round rookie in 2014 and has 3 three years on his deal, but he still graded out slightly below average last season. They need to add someone else to the mix. They won’t pass on Leonard Williams if he falls to them at 4, assuming Williams’ stock doesn’t fall before the draft and assuming the Raiders are unable to sign Ndamukong Suh, an elite defensive tackle who is expected to be their focus of free agency.

Guard

The Raiders signed Austin Howard to a 5-year, 30 million dollar deal last off-season and made a weird decision to move him from right tackle to right guard. Howard struggled mightily in his first season at his new position, grading out 59th out of 78 eligible guards. The Raiders should move him back to right tackle, where he was Pro Football Focus’ 32nd and 47th ranked offensive tackle in 2012 and 2013 respectively, and where Khalif Barnes and Menelik Watson combined to split starts and be an absolute train wreck for the Raiders in 2014. Look for the Raiders to be on the lookout for a new right guard this off-season.

Cornerback

DJ Hayden hasn’t been what the Raiders expected of him, when they drafted him 12th overall in 2013. He’s missed a combined 14 games in his first 2 seasons in the league and has graded out below average in both seasons when on the field. It’s too soon to write him off as a bust, but he shouldn’t be guaranteed a starting role going into 2015 and they definitely can’t count on him for 16 starts. Meanwhile, Tarell Brown and Carlos Rogers are both free agents, so the Raiders will need another cornerback to go with Hayden and promising 2014 7th round pick TJ Carrie.

Defensive End

The Raiders struck gold with Khalil Mack 5th overall in last year’s draft. He was arguably the best defensive rookie in the league and, while he technically played outside linebacker in base packages, he rushes the passer off the edge in sub packages. However, the Raiders need an edge rusher opposite him for the future. Justin Tuck was solid as a starting defensive end last season, but he’s going into an age 32 contract year and often rushes the passer from the interior in sub packages. LaMarr Woodley was supposed to provide help at the defensive end position, but he struggled before predictably going down for the season with injury, leaving the underwhelming duo of CJ Wilson and Benson Mayowa to play in his absence. Woodley is going into an age 31 contract year and could easily be a cap casualty, coming off of the worst season of his career and with a significant injury history. Randy Gregory makes a lot of sense 4th overall if he’s still available and Leonard Williams isn’t.

Middle Linebacker

Nick Roach missed all of 2014 with concussion problems, leaving the incredibly overmatched Miles Burris to start in his absence. He made all 16 starts for the Raiders, despite grading out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked middle linebacker by a mile. Roach is expected to be back in 2015, but you never know with concussion problems. They should bring in better insurance than Burris, because he was horrible. Roach wasn’t exactly a great player before the injury either, serving as a solid run stopping 3rd linebacker in Chicago with Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs early in his career, but grading out slightly below average in each of his last two healthy seasons in Oakland as an every down player.

Wide Receiver

Wide receiver isn’t the Raiders’ biggest need, but Amari Cooper still makes a lot of sense for them at #4 overall if Gregory and Williams aren’t available. The Raiders have some decent players at wide receiver, but none of James Jones, Andre Holmes, Kenbrell Thompkins, or Brice Butler is the #1 receiver that young quarterback Derek Carr needs. They can get away with going into 2015 without adding significantly at the position, but it’s not an overall strong group.

Tight End

Mychal Rivera was a decent pass catcher last year, but he wasn’t that good, catching 58 passes for 534 yard and 4 touchdowns, hardly enough to make up for the fact that the 6-3 245 pounder is a horrific run blocker. Overall, he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked tight end last season, including dead last in run blocking grade. The Raiders don’t have much depth behind him on the depth chart so they should add competition for him this off-season.

Running Back

The Raiders offense was noticeably better down the stretch, allowing them to actually win some games. Part of the reason for that was the emergence of Latavius Murray. His 5.17 YPC was a big upgrade over Darren McFadden, who averaged just 3.45 YPC. Murray is very talented, but the 2013 6th round pick is still unproven with only 82 career carries and only averaged about 4.12 YPC aside from one 90-yard run against Kansas City. Some competition should be added because McFadden is unlikely to be back as a free agent this off-season, not that the Raiders should want him back anyway.

Safety

Charles Woodson is a free agent heading into his age 39 season and, while he’s expressed interest in returning and showed enough last season that the Raiders should welcome him back if he wants to play, no one should be surprised if he decides to hang them up or sees his abilities drop off significantly next season. He’s certainly not a long-term solution. Meanwhile, opposite him, Tyvon Branch has missed 28 of 32 games over the past 2 seasons combined and his replacement, Brandian Ross, has not proven to be starting caliber. They should add at this position this off-season.

Center

Stefen Wisniewski has been a solid starter at center for the Raiders over the past 3 seasons, but the 2011 2nd round pick is a free agent this off-season. If he’s not retained, he’ll need to be replaced as the Raiders don’t seem to have an internal replacement.

Key Free Agents

C Stefen Wisniewski

Stefen Wisniewski graded out slightly below average in 2014 (22nd out of 41 eligible centers), but he’s still one of the Raiders’ few talented young starters. After struggling at guard as a rookie, the 2011 2nd round pick moved to center in 2012 and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th and 11th ranked center in 2012 and 2013 respectively. They’d be wise to try to re-sign him as he’s not the type of player who is going to break the bank.

DT Pat Sims

An underwhelming reserve in Cincinnati from 2008-2012, after they drafted him in the 3rd round in 2008, Sims had a breakout year in 2013 with the Raiders, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked defensive tackle, showing above average abilities as both a pass rusher and a run stopper. The Raiders smartly re-signed him to a cheap 1-year deal for 2014, but he proved to be a one year wonder, grading out below average. Still, with depth problems at defensive tackle, bringing Sims back for a 3rd year in Oakland on another 1-year deal wouldn’t be a bad move. If the Raiders don’t bring him back, expect him to end up with a 1-year reserve deal elsewhere.

CB Tarell Brown

Brown was a 3-year starter in San Francisco, grading out 32nd, 13th, and 31st in 2011, 2012, and 2013. Brown turned down a 3-year, 10 million dollar deal from the 49ers last off-season, instead choosing to bet on himself and rehab his value after missing 3 games and being limited in others by rib problems in 2013, but that seems to have been a mistake. Brown made 3.5 million over 1 season in Oakland, missed another 2 games with injury, and graded out below average. He’d be an intriguing pickup as a cheap starter for a team, but, going into his age 30 season after two down seasons, he won’t command much on the open market.

S Charles Woodson

Woodson looked done after a 2012 season in which he missed 9 games in Green Bay with injury, going into what was an age 37 season in 2013, but, remarkably, Woodson has played at a solid level over the past 2 seasons in Oakland and has made all 32 starts. No longer the shutdown cornerback he once was, Woodson has reinvented himself as a safety and the Raiders seem open to his return as a starter for his age 39 season in 2015. A future Hall-of-Famer, Woodson will contemplate retirement this off-season and it seems like he’d only play for the Raiders, the team with whom he started his career, if he does return, but there’s a decent chance we see Woodson on the field again for an 18th season in 2015.

CB Carlos Rogers

Rogers was a bust of a first round pick in Washington for 6 years from 2005-2010, grading out about average pretty much every season, but the 49ers picked him up on a 1-year deal in 2011 and he responded by grading out 7th among cornerbacks that season. The 49ers rewarded him with a 4-year, 28 million dollar deal, but Rogers did not reward them, ranking 46th in 2012 and 71st in 2013 (below average), which led to his release last off-season. The Raiders picked him up cheap to be their 3rd cornerback, but he struggled in 7 games, before going down for the season with a knee injury. Going into his age 34 season, coming off of that injury, he might have to wait a bit to get signed this off-season. Outside of 2011, he’s never been a particularly effective player in the NFL.

WR Denarius Moore

Moore looked like a steal of a 2011 5th round pick as a rookie, as he caught 33 passes for 618 yards and 5 touchdowns in 13 games, including 19 catches for 406 yards and 3 touchdowns during a 6 game stretch to end the season. However, despite ESPN.com AFC West reporter Bill Williamson saying that Moore would be the best receiver in the AFC West in 3 years, Moore never really progressed, averaging 36 catches for 517 yards and 4 touchdowns over the next 3 seasons, including a very disappointing 12/115/0 2014 season after he fell out of favor with the coaching staff. Purely a deep threat that the NFL figured out very quickly, Moore will have a hard time finding playing time this off-season.

RB Darren McFadden

McFadden has never been able to live up to his billing as the 4th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft and was never able to live up to his huge 2010 season, in which he rushed for 1157 yards and 7 touchdowns on 223 carries (5.19 yards per carry) and added 47 catches for another 501 yards and 3 scores. In 4 seasons since, he’s played a total of 45 games out of 64 and rushed for just 2234 yards and 13 touchdowns on 601 carries (3.72 yards per carry) and he’s been under 3.4 yards per carry in each of the last 3 seasons. A change of scenery and better blocking could help him, but he’s not going to be a hot commodity on the open market whatsoever this off-season.

Cap Casualty Candidates

RB Maurice Jones-Drew

MJD is about as done as they come. It’s been a steady decline for the ex-Jaguar since he led the NFL in rushing in 2011, rushing for 1606 yards and 8 touchdowns on 343 carries (4.68 YPC) He averaged a solid 4.81 yards per carry in 2012, but he was limited to 84 carries in 6 games by a foot injury and was never the same. He rushed for just 803 yards and 5 touchdowns on 234 carries in 2013, a 3.43 yards per carry average. The Raiders took a flier on him last off-season, but it didn’t pan out, as he rushed for just 96 yards on 43 carries. The Raiders can save 2.5 million in cash and on the cap by cutting him this off-season and, even with minimal depth at the running back position, they won’t think twice about doing so. Even though he’s only going into his age 30 season, his career is probably over.

QB Matt Schaub

Here’s another guy who had a steady decline. Schaub completed 64.3% of his passes for an average of 7.37 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions for a 12-4 Texans team in 2012, but in 2013, he completed just 61.2% of his passes for an average of 6.45 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions for a 2-14 Texans team. The Raiders traded a 6th round pick for him last off-season and reworked his contract with the goal of having him as their starting quarterback, but he lost the starting job to 2nd round rookie Derek Carr in training camp and ended up just throwing 10 passes, completing 5 for 57 yards and throwing 2 interceptions. Owed a non-guaranteed 5.5 million dollars, I don’t expect the Raiders to keep him around. Going into his age 34 season, Schaub will have to look for backup work at a cheaper salary elsewhere.

DE LaMarr Woodley

The Raiders signed LaMarr Woodley to a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal last off-season, but he ended up missing 10 games with injury and struggled while on the field. Woodley showed pass rush ability in Pittsburgh, grading out above average there as a 3-4 outside linebacker in every season from when they drafted him in 2007 to when they let him go in 2013, including 6 years as a starter from 2008-2013. However, he missed 14 games in his final three seasons in Pittsburgh and there was serious concern about his durability and conditioning, part of why they released him. Now he’s coming off of the worst season of his career, another injury, and is going into his age 31 season in 2015, owed a non-guaranteed 5.35 million dollar salary. They could easily let him go.

G Kevin Boothe

The Raiders brought in Boothe last off-season to compete for potentially a number of starting jobs on the offensive line, but he ended up only playing 19 snaps. He’s a versatile reserve but, owed 1.7 million next season, his age 32 season, he could easily be cut and replaced with someone who can provide similar depth for half the price.

S Tyvon Branch

Branch has the Raiders’ top cap number for 2015 at 9.657 million. The Raiders can only save 2.986 million on the cap immediately by cutting him, but doing so would get them out of salaries of 5.5 million in 2015 and 6.5 million in 2016 and 2017 and he’d be completely off of their cap by 2016. Branch was once a solid safety, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked safety in 2011 and their 30th ranked safety in 2012, but he’s missed all but 4 games with injuries over the past two seasons combined and it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever be the same player again.

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2014 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Pick: Khalil Mack

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Awards, Raiders, Uncategorized

Odell Beckham Jr. had a season for the ages on the offensive side of the football this year and looks like an easy choice for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but two defensive rookies had rookie years that were equally as dominant. Oakland’s Khalil Mack and St. Louis’ Aaron Donald each ranked #1 at their respective positions, 4-3 outside linebacker and defensive tackle, on Pro Football Focus, the first defensive rookies to do so since Denver’s Von Miller did so at 4-3 outside linebacker in 2011. Other rookies had strong rookie campaigns in 2014, San Francisco’s Chris Borland, Baltimore’s CJ Mosley, and Minnesota’s Anthony Barr are names that come to mind, but to me, this award is between Mack and Donald as none of the other 3 even ranked in the top-3 at their respective positons.

Once you get down to Mack and Donald, it becomes a very tough choice. Both led their respective positions over some established All-Pro caliber veterans. Mack finished #1 right ahead of the aforementioned Von Miller, the first time Miller hasn’t been #1 at that position since he broke into the league in 2011, while Donald finished right ahead of Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy, both of whom have been top-4 defensive tackles in each of the past 3 seasons.

Mack played a role very similar to the one that Von Miller has played in Denver for 4 years, playing 4-3 outside linebacker in base packages and becoming an edge rusher in sub packages. Mack only managed 4 sacks on the season on a 3-13 Raiders team, which ultimately might be the reason he doesn’t win this award, but his pass rush numbers were better than his sack totals as he also managed 10 hits and 40 hurries. That still means his pass rush productivity was significantly worse than Miller’s, as Miller had 15 sacks, 11 hits, and 47 hurries, giving him a pass rush productivity of 11.8, while Mack was at 9.1.

However, Miller had the luxury of playing with a lot of leads on a Peyton Manning quarterbacked team, giving him more easy pass rush situations, while Mack played on an Oakland team whose offense led by Derek Carr was the worst in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential by a wide margin at 62.27%. Jacksonville was next worst at 64.55%. Oakland’s defense was actually competent this season, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 72.33% rate that was a middle of the pack 16th in the NFL, largely due to the play of Mack. That was despite the fact that of 13 Oakland defenders to play more than 400 snaps this season, only two of them graded out positively, Mack and veteran Justin Tuck, who was Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked 4-3 defensive end. If that’s your best defensive teammate and your defense is still capable, you played pretty well, regardless of what the sack numbers say. Mack also was significantly better than Miller as a run stopper.

Donald had a different rookie year. He had more than double Mack’s sacks with 9, very impressive for an interior player. When you add in his 6 hits and 29 hurries, you get a pass rush productivity of 8.3, worse than Mack’s, but 8th best among defensive tackles. And Donald wasn’t playing with a bunch of leads either. The Rams finished better than the Raiders did at 6-10, but their offense finished 25th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 68.90%. The Rams’ defense was why they were able to win 6 games, as they finished 5th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 70.28% rate.

Donald was a big part of that, not just rushing the passer, but also stopping the run surprisingly well for a player listed at 6-1 288 coming out of college. Along with ranking #1 at his position, he was the only defensive tackle to rank in the top-5 as both a pass rusher and against the run. However, unlike Mack, he had a lot more help around him. While just 2 of 13 Oakland defenders who played more than 400 snaps graded out positively this season, 8 of 14 St. Louis defenders did so, including Donald’s defensive line-mate Robert Quinn, who finished as Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked 4-3 defensive end. Ultimately, it’s a borderline toss-up between these two. I won’t complain if either of them wins it, but since I have to pick one I’m going with Mack for doing what he did with almost no help around him. This is easily the closest award race though.

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Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Broncos, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (3-12) at Denver Broncos (11-4)

The Broncos lost last week in Cincinnati, but they still rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential. Manning isn’t playing as good of football as he was last season and he’s coming off of one of the worst games of his career, but this is still a very complete team that runs the ball and plays defense better than they did last season. They move the chains at a 76.74% rate, as opposed to 71.10% for their opponents, a differential of 5.64%. Despite that, people seem to be jumping off the bandwagon. The public is actually on the Raiders here as 14 point underdogs, which is notable because the public always loses money in the long run and the public never takes big underdogs.

As they usually are, the public is wrong here. This line is way too low. The Raiders, despite some recent success, still stink, moving the chains at a 63.07% rate, as opposed to 72.01% for their opponents, a differential of -8.94% that is still the league’s worst. They’ve been even worse away from Oakland, moving the chains at a 57.85% rate, as opposed to 70.04% for their opponents, a differential of 12.19% in 8 games, including a neutral site “home game” in London week 4 against the Dolphins.

The Raiders have won three straight home games in big upset fashion, which is part of why the public likes them here, but they’ve still had issues on the road recently. Besides, teams are 65-85 ATS off of home victories as 6+ point underdogs. On the other side, the Broncos have had no problem taking care of bad teams in the Peyton Manning era, going 16-10 ATS as home favorites, including 6-3 ATS as home favorites of 10 or more. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Raiders have been a sneaky good ATS team this season, going 8-7 ATS, including road covers against Seattle, New England, and San Diego. They’re also 4-2 ATS in their last 6, though just 1-2 ATS on the road.

Denver Broncos 34 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -14

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bills, Raiders, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (8-6) at Oakland Raiders (2-12)

This line shifted from 4.5 to 6 over the past week with the Bills winning at home in upset fashion over the Packers. I love fading huge line movements whenever it makes sense because they’re usually overreactions, especially when I can do so and fade the public at the same time, because the public always loses money in the long run. The public is on Buffalo here in a big way and the line movement is a bit of an overreaction. The Bills won on the scoreboard, but the Packers won the first down battle 21-13 and moved the chains at a 64.71% rate, as opposed to 54.17% for the Bills.

That being said, it’s not quite a big enough line movement for me to be excited about the Raiders this week, even if it is at the key number of 6. The Bills rank 26th on the season in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 65.76% rate, as opposed to 67.74% for their opponents, a differential of -1.98%. Meanwhile, the Raiders rank dead last on the season in that aspect, moving the chains at a 62.95% rate, as opposed to 72.67% for their opponents, a differential of -9.71%. That suggests this line should be right around where it was last week at 4.5. However, this line would have to be a touchdown or more for me to be confident in Oakland.

The Bills are in a bad spot this week, as they have a much tougher game in New England next week.. Favorites of 6 or more are just 47-81 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more since 2002. Even worse, teams are 18-33 ATS since 1989 as road favorites of 4+ before being road underdogs of 4+. The 49ers lost straight up here in Oakland in this exact same spot as 8 point favorites a couple weeks ago, ahead of a much bigger game in Seattle. The 49ers are more talented than the Bills. However, the Raiders aren’t exactly in a great spot with a trip to Denver on deck (though they weren’t against San Francisco either with a trip to Kansas City on deck at that point). Teams are 47-87 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. I’m still going with the Raiders, but, again, I’d need a touchdown to put money on it.

Buffalo Bills 13 Oakland Raiders 10

Pick against the spread: Oakland +6

Confidence: Low

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Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (2-11) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-6)

The Raiders pulled the improbable upset over the 49ers last week as 8 point home underdogs and they did so in convincing fashion, but we’re still getting line value with the Chiefs as 10 only point home favorites here. The Raiders still rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 63.74% rate, as opposed to 73.35% for their opponents, a differential of -9.61%. The Chiefs, meanwhile, rank 7th, moving the chains at a 74.81% rate, as opposed to 71.06% for their opponents, a differential of 3.75%.

I’m not confident in the Chiefs though, as they aren’t in a great spot either. They have a much tougher game in Pittsburgh next week which could serve as a playoff tiebreaker. Teams are just 99-114 ATS as divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2002. On top of that, this is just the 17th time that a team has been favored by double digits off of 3 straight losses in the past 25 years. Only three teams have covered in that spot over that time period, going 3-12-1 ATS. I’m going with the Chiefs to be the 4th, but I’m not confident at all.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Oakland Raiders 10

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -10

Confidence: None

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San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, 49ers, Raiders, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (7-5) at Oakland Raiders (1-11)

The Raiders were absolutely destroyed in St. Louis last week, losing by the final score of 52-0, the biggest single game margin of the season. However, that actually puts them in a good spot to cover this week, as teams are 48-25 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by 35 or more. It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. The Raiders aren’t undervalued (I have this line at 8.5, which is essentially where it is), but they will surely be embarrassed and they will almost definitely be overlooked. Adding to the likelihood that the 49ers will overlook the Raiders here is the fact that the 49ers have arguably their biggest game of the season on deck when they travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks.

The early line for that game has them as 7 point underdogs at the site where they lost the NFC Championship last year, against their most bitter rival who beat them last week. The 49ers will have one eye on that game all week in preparing for Oakland and that will show on the field. Favorites of 6 or more are just 46-80 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more since 2002. Even worse, teams are 17-32 ATS since 1989 as road favorites of 4+ before being road underdogs of 4+. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because Oakland has Kansas City on deck where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs and teams are 44-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. However, after what happened last week, the Raiders should be able to be focused on this game, given that they’ll be playing for pride against a hated local rival.

San Francisco 49ers 17 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: Oakland +8

Confidence: Low

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Oakland Raiders at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Raiders, Rams, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (1-10) at St. Louis Rams (4-7)

One of the most powerful trends says that teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover the spread as 6+ point favorites about a quarter of the time historically. The problem with this trend is it’s often very hard to know whether or not a team favored by 6 or more is actually going to finish 6-10 or worse. The Rams sit here at 4-7 favored by 7 over Oakland needing to go 3-2 to finish above 6-10. They’re only favored in 2 of their remaining 5 games, this one against Oakland and a week 16 matchup in St. Louis with the Giants, which suggests they are likely to finish 6-10 or worse. On top of that, they are expected to be underdogs in Washington next week and non-divisional home favorites are 77-108 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional road underdogs.

However, the line in the St. Louis/Washington game is only 1 and could easily switch to St. Louis being favored. According to the odds makers, that game is essentially a 50/50 toss-up. I disagree because I think the Redskins are underrated, but the Rams are very far from a lock to go 6-10 or worse. The six and six trend could easily not be in play this week. The Rams are also very far from a lock to be underdogs in Washington next week, so that other trend I mentioned could easily not be in play this week.

Oakland, however, does have a very tough game next week as they head home to face the 49ers. Teams are 91-125 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home underdogs. Even worse, teams are 57-89 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more, 29-62 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 9-24 ATS before being road favorites of 7 or more (the early line is San Francisco -7.5). That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, I think it’s both.

Speaking of the Raiders not being a very good football team, they still rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential, even after last week’s win over the Chiefs, their first win of the season. They move the chains at a 63.48% rate, as opposed to 73.50% for their opponents, a differential of -10.02%. No one else has a differential worse than -8.55% (Tennessee). The Rams aren’t great, moving the chains at a 69.50% rate, as opposed to 74.03% for their opponents, a differential of -4.53% that ranks 26th in the NFL. However, they are good enough that I don’t have a problem taking them as touchdown favorites over the Raiders, though I’m not confident.

St. Louis Rams 23 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: St. Louis -7

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Raiders, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) at Oakland Raiders (0-10)

The Chiefs beat the Seahawks last week, but this line still doesn’t reflect how good they are. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.45% rate, as opposed to 71.38% for their opponents, a differential of 6.07%. It makes sense. In addition to what they did last week, they went into San Diego and won. They went into Buffalo and won. They blew out a solid Miami team in Miami (34-15). They blew out a Patriots team that has looked fantastic since (41-14). They took care of business against the Jets (24-10) and the Rams (31-7). Meanwhile, their three losses came by a combined 19 points and two of them came in Denver and San Francisco. As long as they aren’t overconfident over last week’s win, they should be able to win fairly easily here.

The Raiders, meanwhile, are terrible, moving the chains at a 62.50% rate, as opposed to 74.30% for their opponents, a differential of -11.80%, easily the worst in the NFL (no one else is worse than -8.51%). They should be way more than touchdown underdogs here at home for Kansas City. Speaking of them being home underdogs, that actually puts them in a bad spot, as teams are 30-59 ATS as divisional home underdogs in night games since 1989.

The only reason I’m not that confident is because the Raiders are in a good spot because they’re winless and on a big losing streak. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that situation. Teams are 31-15 ATS since 1989 as underdogs with a record of 0-8 or worse, though only 13-12 as home underdogs. On top of that, underdogs with records of 0-5 or worse are 39-19 ATS off of a loss by a touchdown or less, though again only 15-10 ATS as home underdogs. Also, while the Raiders will be overlooked and embarrassed, they aren’t undervalued because the Chiefs are only touchdown favorites here. The Chiefs should be the right side.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Oakland Raiders 10

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -7

Confidence: Low

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Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Chargers, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (0-9) at San Diego Chargers (5-4)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, this seems like a perfect spot for the Chargers to bounce back off of back-to-back big losses on the road in Denver and Miami. Despite those two losses, they are still significantly better than the Raiders, to the point where I think we’re getting some line value with them as only 10 point favorites. The Chargers still rank 17th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 75.19% rate, as opposed to 75.46% for their opponents, a differential of -0.28%. Meanwhile, the Raiders rank dead last, moving the chains at a 64.20% rate, as opposed to 75.68% for their opponents, a differential of -11.49%. No one else has a differential worse than -7.93% (Tennessee).

In addition to still ranking relatively high in rate of moving the chains differential despite those two losses, the Chargers are also still above .500 despite those two losses, which brings in another trend that support the theory that they’ll have a bounce back week. Teams with a winning record are 49-28 ATS since 1989 at home off of back-to-back road losses. On top of that, the Chargers had an embarrassing loss in their last time out, losing 38-0 and teams tend to bounce back off of those as teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed. Teams are 46-24 ATS off of a loss by 35 or more since 1989, including 4-0 ATS off of a bye.

The Raiders, meanwhile, have another tough game against the Chiefs on deck. Teams are 56-85 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more, 28-60 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 8-22 ATS before being road favorites of 7 or more (the early line is Kansas City -7.5). That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, I think it’s both.

However, there is one very powerful trend on Oakland’s side that can’t be ignored. Teams that are 0-8 or worse (the Raiders are 0-9) cover at a very high rate as road underdogs historically, going 17-3 ATS since 1989. That’s because no one wants to bet on a team that is 0-8 or worse so the odds makers know they can boost the spread as high as they want. I don’t know that that’s happening here because the Chargers are coming off of a rough stretch as well, but the public is all over the Chargers and I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense. At the end of the day, I still like the Chargers to bounce back and cover this spread, but I’m not confident at all.

San Diego Chargers 34 Oakland Raiders 23

Pick against the spread: San Diego -10

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Broncos, Raiders, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-8)

I’m completely torn on this one. On one hand, the Broncos are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. Going off that, teams are 43-28 ATS as road favorites off a road loss since 2008, including 16-8 ATS off of a loss as road favorites. On top of that, the Broncos also have no upcoming distractions with a trip to St. Louis on deck. Teams are 80-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more, 49-32 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 20-7 ATS before being road favorites of a touchdown or more (the early line is Denver -7.5).

On the other hand, all of the public money is on the Broncos and the public always loses money in the long run. On top of that, winless teams this late in the season tend to be a solid bet. Teams that are 0-8 or worse are 32-15 ATS since 1989. Teams like this tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed and I think the Raiders could easily be all three. I’m going with the Broncos because I think we’re getting a tiny bit of line value with them as 11 point favorites, but I have no confidence.

Denver Broncos 34 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against the spread: Denver -11

Confidence: None

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