Raiders

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Chargers, Raiders, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (1-3)

When I did my top-200 players back in August, the Chargers were the only team in the NFL that only had 1 player on the list (safety Eric Weddle). Even the Jaguars (Eugene Monroe, Maurice Jones-Drew, Cecil Shorts) and the Raiders (Jared Veldheer, Lamarr Houston) had more than one. They didn’t have a single player on the offensive side of the ball. The job Head Coach Mike McCoy has done with the offense in his first season with the team is amazing.

Despite a largely replacement level supporting cast around a declining Philip Rivers, McCoy has the Chargers moving the ball at an incredible rate, moving the chains on 82% of opportunities, only behind Denver and Indianapolis. The resurgence of Philip Rivers has a ton to do with it. Rivers looks like his pre-2011 self, completing 73.9% of his passes for an average of 8.4 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, despite a lack of talent around him.

The problem is the defensive side of the ball, which has almost as little talent. They are allowing opponents to move the chains 84% of the time. Only Philadelphia is worse. The Raiders get Terrelle Pryor back this week from injury. He certainly has flaws, but he’s a dynamic playmaker capable of taking advantage of a poor defense. He’s already one of the Raiders’ top-5 players and he’ll be a significant upgrade over Matt Flynn, who didn’t even look like he belonged in the league last week, leading the Raiders’ offense to one scoring drive against one of the worst defenses in the NFL all game.

For that reason, the Raiders certainly have a chance to cover, but the Raiders’ defense isn’t very good either. I could see the Chargers throwing up 30+ in this game and forcing the Raiders’ out of their offensive game plan, forcing Pryor to become a passer more than a runner, and winning fairly convincingly. I could really go either way on this game and the fact that it got moved to 11:55 PM Eastern Time doesn’t make things easier. I’m taking the Chargers, but I’m not confident at all.

San Diego Chargers 31 Oakland Raiders 24

Pick against spread: San Diego -4.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders, Uncategorized

Last week: 31

Record: 1-3

If it wasn’t already clear, Matt Flynn’s performance against the Redskins proves the Raiders made the correct choice going with Terrelle Pryor over Flynn. It isn’t saying a ton, but Pryor is already one of the top-5 players on this roster, while Flynn looked like a quarterback who deserved to go in the 7th round back in 2008, leading the Raiders to a pathetic 14 points at home against an awful Washington defense. The Raiders should have a top-5 pick this season, but they shouldn’t go quarterback. Pryor deserves another chance going into the contract year of his rookie deal and the Raiders have plenty of other needs. Jadeveon Clowney would look awfully nice on that defensive line, assuming they can get him.

Week 4 Studs

RB Rashad Jennings

LE Jack Crawford

Week 4 Duds

QB Matt Ryan

DT Vance Walker

CB Tracy Porter

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 4 NFL Picks, Commanders, Raiders, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (0-3) at Oakland Raiders (1-2)

Terrelle Pryor has not technically been named the starter at quarterback for the Raiders in this one, after suffering a concussion this week, but he’s passed all of the NFL’s tests and is going to take one precautionary test before the game before the Raiders clear him. I’d be pretty surprised if he was held out of this one. Besides, I like the Redskins anyway this week and if he’s held out in favor of noodle armed pocket passer Matt Flynn, it’ll only give the Redskins an even better chance of winning and covering this 3.5 point spread.

The Redskins may be 0-3, but they had their best performance of the season last week at home for Detroit. Robert Griffin will only get better from here on out as he continues to get his legs back under him. Last week was his best performance of the season, at least in terms of how he looked in the pocket, running, and throwing the football. He completed 32 of 50 for 326 yards and a pick, with 37 yards on 6 carries in a game that was close throughout.

He’ll probably have his best performance of the season this week, not just because he’ll have another week under his belt in his return, but because of how terrible Oakland’s defense is. They are easily a bottom-5 unit and that should be reflected in the amount of points they surrender by season’s end. After beating a hapless Jacksonville team at home 19-9, the Raiders were blown out in Denver last week.

Even the final score of 37-21 doesn’t tell how big of a blowout it was. The Broncos had 31 first downs to just 1 punt, while the Raiders had 13 first downs and punted 6 times. The Raiders actually won the turnover battle by 2, recovering both of the Broncos’ fumbles, both of which were pretty unforced. Teams who win the turnover battle by 2 win, on average, 82.1% of the time and outscore opponents by 9.64 points per game. They hung with the Colts week 1, but the Colts had 7 wins by 7 points or less against 7 win or worse teams in 2012, so that’s not really saying much. The 2-14 Chiefs hung with the Colts in 2012 and the 2-14 Jaguars beat them.

The Raiders are the first team the Redskins will play where they have a clear talent advantage. This means they will be able to run their game plan like they’d like. They’ve gotten down early in all 3 of their games thus far this season and have had to abandon the read option and other quarterback runs, as well as their power running game with Alfred Morris, for that reason. The 2012 Redskins ran the ball 519 times to 442 passes, but the 2013 Redskins have run just 57 times to 139 passes. It’s not like Alfred Morris has been bad, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. He just hasn’t gotten the opportunity. It won’t surprise me at all if the Redskins rushed for over 200 yards in this game and completely took things over.

The trends favor the Redskins as well. The Raiders are home dogs before being home dogs. Inferior teams are prime candidates for upsets when they have an upcoming lull in the schedule and/or when their opponent has an upcoming daunting matchup to distract them. That’s not the case here at all. The Raiders have a home game against the Chargers next week, while the Redskins go on bye. Home dogs are 33-49 ATS since 2008 before being home dogs again and 12-25 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home dogs before being divisional home dogs. Meanwhile, the Redskins will be completely focused against an inferior opponent with an off week next week. Since 2002, teams are 61-27 ATS as either 7+ point home favorites or 3.5+ point road favorites before a bye. They should win this one easily.

Washington Redskins 31 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: Washington -3.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders, Uncategorized

Last week: 31

The Raiders got a win against the Jaguars week 2, but things were back to normal in week 3 as they got blown out by the Broncos. Even the final score of 37-21 doesn’t tell how big of a blowout it was. The Broncos had 31 first downs to just 1 punt, while the Raiders had 13 first downs and punted 6 times. The Raiders actually won the turnover battle by 2, recovering both of the Broncos’ fumbles, both of which were pretty unforced. Teams who win the turnover battle by 2 win, on average, 82.1% of the time and outscore opponents by 9.64 points per game.

Week 3 Studs

QB Terrelle Pryor

RT Tony Pashos

Week 3 Duds

LG Andre Gurode

MLB Nick Roach

CB DJ Hayden

CB Mike Jenkins

FS Brandian Ross

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Broncos, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (1-1) at Denver Broncos (2-0)

I think a lot of people have forgotten how awful the Raiders were supposed to be coming into this season and I don’t understand why. They did almost beat the Colts in Indianapolis week 1, but the Colts won 7 games by 7 points or less against 7 win or worse teams last year, including the 2-14 Chiefs. The Colts then followed that up by losing at home to Miami. The Raiders then beat the Jaguars in Oakland last week 19-9 in a game that was actually more lopsided than the final score would suggest, but I don’t know how impressive that is. Jacksonville is definitely worse than the Raiders, but you can really say that about any other team, considering how awful the Raiders were seen to be coming into the season, and for good reason.

I think that will get exposed this week against Denver in a blowout loss and even though this line is -15.5, I feel like it would be closer to -18 a couple of weeks ago, especially considering how well the Broncos have started the season. Peyton Manning should move the ball with ease against a defense filled with generally replacement level players, especially with Tyvon Branch out as well, and put Terrelle Pryor into the kind of obvious passing situations he hasn’t been in thus far this season and that will expose him. Manning has been especially good under the national television lights in his career, going 19-6 ATS on Thursday or Monday Night in his career. I have no problem laying the 15.5 here.

Denver Broncos 37 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against spread: Denver -15.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders, Uncategorized

Last week: 32

The Raiders won the total bowl last week. I originally had the Raiders winning just 1 game all season, week 2 at home for Jacksonville, but they have impressed me more than I’ve expected so far this season. Terrelle Pryor has faced two of the worst defenses in the NFL in his 2 starts, but he’s led this team to 6 times as many first downs as punts this season. Of course, life will get harder for him when Darren McFadden (36/171/1) suffers his annual injury, but I’m interested to see this team play tougher competiton. If the Raiders can keep it competitive with the Broncos this week, they’ll be moving up.

Week 2 Studs

LT Khalif Barnes

RE Lamarr Houston

CB Mike Jenkins

Week 2 Duds

WR Denarius Moore

LG Lucas Nix

TE Jermon Bushrod

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Raiders, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-1)

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week1 (they didn’t cover), but there was at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

This is a situation where I think we can safely say that a team is going to go 6-10 or worse with the Raiders favored by 6 points here at home against the Raiders. Sure, the Raiders kept it close with the Colts last week, hanging within 4 points on the road of a team that went 11-5 last year. However, that’s a little misleading. The Colts won 7 games by 7 points or fewer against 7 win or worse teams last season. They’re not as good as their record suggests. That included the 2-14 2012 Chiefs and they also lost to the 2-14 2012 Jaguars. The Raiders’ near win in Indianapolis is not a sign that they won’t be as bad as everyone thought they would be at the beginning of the season.

The Jaguars aren’t good either. In fact, these are probably the two worst teams in football and by a wide margin, but the Raiders don’t deserve to be favored by 6+ against anyone. If you played this game under perfectly normal circumstances 100 times, the Raiders would probably win on average by about 3 points and this line should be -3 (which would suggest that these teams are equal and that Oakland is at home). However, these aren’t perfectly normal circumstances. The Raiders are also in a bad spot as favorites of 3 or more are 19-40 ATS since 1989 after being dogs of 7+ and before being dogs of 7+. Not only do the Raiders not deserve to be big favorites here, they also could view this as a breather week, especially after last week and especially with a trip to Denver on the horizon next week.

The Jaguars also are upgrading their quarterback situation this week, though not by their decision as Blaine Gabbert is out with injury. Gabbert was miserable last week in a 28-2 home loss, completing just 16 of 35 for 121 yards and 2 interceptions without a score, but even worse is that just 22 of his yards came through the air. The rest were after the catch. Chad Henne isn’t great either, but he was a noticeable upgrade last season, completing 53.9% of his passes for an average of 6.8 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while Gabbert completed 58.3% of his passes for an average of 6.0 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.

Henne is at least capable of getting the ball to #1 receiver Cecil Shorts, who managed just 4 catches for 30 yards last week because of Blaine Gabbert under center and Brandon Flowers draped all over him. He doesn’t have either of these things this week as the Raiders’ secondary is one of the worst in the NFL and Henne is under center. In 6 starts in which Cecil Shorts and Chad Henne started together last season, Shorts caught 35 passes for 532 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Finally, the Jaguars are in a good spot coming off such a poor performance last week. Teams are 39-25 ATS since 1989 after games in which they either didn’t score or only scored on a safety like the Jaguars did last week. Teams tend to be undervalued and overlooked in this situation. The Jaguars are certainly undervalued as 6 point underdogs against a horrible Oakland team. I’m pretty confident in the Jaguars covering this week.

Oakland Raiders 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +6

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders, Uncategorized

The Raiders kept it close with the Colts and could have won. However, the Colts had 7 wins by 7 or less against 7 win or worse teams last season, so that’s not as impressive as it seems. The Colts just aren’t as good as they seem. Even the 2-14 Chiefs played them within a touchdown last season. The Raiders’ week 1 performance doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t be the worst team in the NFL, as so many predicted. Terrelle Pryor was a weapon on the ground, with 112 rushing yards against a Colts defense that seemed unprepared for a running quarterback, but he didn’t move the ball through the air well, even against a weak Indianapolis secondary.

Week 1 Studs

RT Tony Pashos

DE LaMarr Houston

DT Vance Walker

Week 1 Duds

LT Khalif Barnes

LG Lucas Nix

DT Pat Sims

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Colts, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)

The Raiders suck. Like they’re really, really bad. They won 4 games last year and appear a long shot to even match that total this year. For one thing, they have over 50 million in dead money on their cap. Of their 10 biggest cap numbers this season, 6 are dead money cap casualties who are on other teams, 1 is a backup quarterback, and another is a kicker. They had a first round pick this off-season, for the first time since 2010, but for various reasons had to cut 2010 middle linebacker Rolando McClain, 2009 1st round pick Darrius Heyward-Bey, and 2006 1st round pick Michael Huff this off-season, the latter of whom was actually still an asset for this team, but was a necessary cut for cap reasons.

Prior to drafting DJ Hayden 12th overall this past April, they had just two former 1st round picks on their roster, one of whom is a kicker. Hayden himself could be very behind the 8-ball as a rookie, as he wasn’t cleared for contact until late August after off-season surgery to repair scar tissue in his abdomen. Their cap situation also caused them to lose top defensive lineman Desmond Bryant, top linebacker Philip Wheeler, and leading receiver Brandon Myers this off-season.

On top of all of this, the Raiders will be without Jared Veldheer, one of their very few remaining good players, early in the season with a torn triceps. 2nd round rookie Menelik Watson, who has never played left tackle in his live, is supposed to play in his absence, but he’s dealing with a knee injury of his own. If he can’t go in this one, the Raiders would move Khalif Barnes to left tackle, which would be disastrous considering how overmatched he’s been on the easier right side over the past few seasons. Tony Pashos, a 33-year-old who didn’t play last season, would be the right tackle in that scenario.

The Raiders attempted to plug some holes with cheap signings of Vance Walker, Nick Roach, Kevin Burnett, and Charles Woodson defensively, but they’re, any way you look at it, a worse team than they were last season. They are going to be awful this season. However, the Colts had a lot of trouble beating awful teams last season. They only won 2 games all last season by more than a touchdown and that includes close calls against Tennessee, Kansas City, Buffalo, and Detroit, among others.

The good news for the Colts is the Raiders are worse than any team they played last season, including Kansas City. The Colts also should be a better team this season, though it probably won’t show in their win-loss record. Andrew Luck is going into his 2nd year in the league and should be better in Pep Hamilton’s system, which will resemble the one Luck ran at Stanford under Hamilton, rather than Bruce Arians’ system which had Luck throw 20+ yards downfield more than any quarterback in the NFL last season. He also should have a better offensive line, after being pressured more often than any quarterback in the NFL last season.

However, for all the money they spent this off-season, I don’t know that their supporting cast is that much better than it was last season, especially on defense. If this line were still -7 like it were before the pre-season, I could take the Colts, but as long as it’s -10, I can’t take the Colts, especially with all of the public action on them. They don’t have a history of blowing teams out and this could very well be week 1’s meaningless garbage touchdown for a backdoor cover that causes everyone to lose a ton of money game. That being said, I can’t put any money on the Raiders, even if they were -20. Indianapolis is also my Survivor Pick of the week. I’d be shocked if they lost this game.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Indianapolis Colts 31 Oakland Raiders 24 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Oakland +10

Confidence Level: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Oakland Raiders 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Raiders, Uncategorized

QB Terrelle Pryor (Oakland)

8/29/13: Terrelle Pryor appears to have won the Raiders’ starting job. He might be the worst passer of any of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL this season, but the Raiders will be trailing an awful lot so he’ll get a lot of pass attempts and he’ll add value on the ground. He’ll be a better fantasy quarterback than real quarterback. He’s only a QB2 in deep leagues though because he could easily be benched for Matt Flynn at some point this season, but there’s upside with him if he can make all 16 starts.

Projection: 3200 passing yards, 13 passing touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 400 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (204 pts standard, 230 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Darren McFadden (Oakland)

McFadden’s supporters are always making excuses for him. Last year it was that he didn’t fit the blocking scheme (does that explain why he averaged just 1.9 yards per carry after contact, 3rd worst in the NFL, and broke just 16 tackles on 216 carries?). However, the fact remains that we’re entering year 6 of Darren McFadden in NFL and he’s never had more than 223 carries in a season, he averages just 4.3 yards per carry for his career, he’s coming off of a season in which he averaged just 3.3 yards per carry, and he’s played just 57 of 80 possible games, maxing out with 13 games played in a season. At his current ADP in the 3rd round, let him be someone else’s problem. He’s Ryan Mathews with a better PR team.

Projection: 200 carries for 880 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 43 catches for 320 receiving yards (156 pts standard, 199 pts PPR)

WR Denarius Moore (Oakland)

Moore had a very promising rookie year, catching 33 passes for 618 yards and 5 touchdowns on just 357 pass snaps. However, he struggled to live up to expectations in 2012, catching just 51 passes for 714 yards and 7 touchdowns on 520 pass snaps, catching just 46.4% of his targets, and dropping 9 passes, giving him one of the worst drop rates at his position. He could breakout in his 3rd year in the league, when so many receivers break out, with Brandon Myers and Darrius Heyward-Bey gone. However, his inconsistency dates back to his days at Tennessee, part of why he went in the 5th round, and his deep threat ability doesn’t make him that compatible with weaker armed Matt Flynn at quarterback.

Projection: 51 catches for 830 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (119 pts standard, 170 pts PPR)

WR Rod Streater (Oakland)

Rod Streater, more of a possession receiver, figures to be the more compatible with Flynn among their starting receivers. The undrafted rookie showed what he could do down the stretch, catching 18 passes for 351 receiving yards and 1 touchdown in his final 5 games, after struggling to live up to the expectations of his strong pre-season early in the year. He might be their leading receiver this year.

Projection: 57 catches for 810 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (111 pts standard, 168 pts PPR)

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]