Rams

St. Louis Rams at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Rams, Ravens, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (4-5) at Baltimore Ravens (2-7)

The Rams have benched Nick Foles, who they traded for and gave an extension to this off-season, for backup Case Keenum. Keenum has struggled in a decent amount of action in his career, completing 55.2% of his passes for an average of 6.65 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions across 330 attempts, but it would be hard for him to be worse than Foles has been this season. Foles has posted equally poor numbers, completing 56.6% of his passes for an average of 6.56 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions across 256 attempts and the Rams rank easily dead last in the NFL in rate of moving the chains, wasting the performance of a defense that ranks 4th in rate of moving the chains allowed.

It’s also going to be hard for Keenum to be much of an improvement, considering his limited skill set and that he’ll have to work with the same receiving corps and offensive line that Foles had to work with, both units that are arguably the worst in the NFL. Because of how poor the offense is, the Rams rank 28th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite a strong defense. Their defense hasn’t been quite as good in recent weeks anyway, thanks to injuries to Alec Ogletree, defensive end Chris Long, and especially defensive end Robert Quinn. Long could return this week, but missing Quinn again is a huge absence, considering he’s one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL when healthy.

The Ravens aren’t very good either, ranking 25th in rate of moving the chains differential. After ranking 3rd in that statistic in 2014, the Ravens have lost wide receiver Torrey Smith (free agency), wide receiver Steve Smith (injury), outside linebacker Pernell McPhee (free agency), defensive lineman Haloti Ngata (cap casualty), outside linebacker Terrell Suggs (injury), and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak (now Denver’s head coach). Now they’ve lost starting center Jeremy Zuttah for the season and could be without left guard Kelechi Osemele with injury as well. Still, they’re a better team than the Rams, which is not what this line suggests at 2.5. Considering close to 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, I’m going to take the Ravens as less than field goal favorites, though I’m not confident.

Baltimore Ravens 17 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bears, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (4-4) at Chicago Bears (3-5)

The Bears are 7 point underdogs here this week and are expected to be 6 point underdogs next week at home for Denver. That’s not usually a good thing, as 6+ point underdogs are 41-63 ATS before being 6+ point underdogs again, since 2012. However, the Bears do not deserve to be underdogs of this many. They rank 20th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Rams rank 26th. The Rams have arguably the worst offense in the NFL, not the kind of offense that can easily cover a touchdown spread. They’ve been better since Todd Gurley returned to the field from his injury, but the same could be said of the Bears with Jay Cutler healthy.

The Bears are moving the chains at a 74.26% rate in the 6 games that Cutler has started and finished, as opposed to 56.25% in their other 2 games. Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte are both questionable for this one, but Jeffery has already missed 4 games with injury and Forte’s replacement Jeremy Langford looked good in his absence last week. Besides, the Rams are missing defensive end Chris Long and possibly safety TJ McDonald. It’s not enough for me to be confident in the Bears at all, especially with such a tough game on deck (teams are 22-52 ATS since 2012 before being 6+ point home underdogs), but they’re my pick here.

St. Louis Rams 16 Chicago Bears 10

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized, Vikings

St. Louis Rams (4-3) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2)

The Vikings rank higher than the Rams in rate of moving the chains differential, 16th vs.23rd. However, I’m going with the Rams here this week on the road, for a few reasons. For one, the Vikings have had an easier schedule than the Rams, only playing one team that is .500 or better. The Rams, meanwhile, have faced 4, beating the Seahawks and the Cardinals, but losing to the Steelers and the Packers. The Rams also have fewer injuries, only missing defensive end Chris Long, while the Vikings are missing defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd and middle linebacker Eric Kendricks.

The Rams are also in a way better spot. While the Vikings go to Oakland next week, where they are expected to be 1.5 point underdogs, the Rams host the Bears, against whom they’re expected to be favored by 7.5 points. Teams are 166-94 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. On top of that, teams are 28-48 ATS as home favorites off of a win by 1-3 points as favorites, since 2008. The Vikings won by a field goal as road favorites in Chicago last week.

I’m not confident enough in the Rams to put money on them because this line has shifted from 3 to 1.5 in the past week, a bigger deal than people realize because close to 1 in 6 games is decided by a field goal. In spite of that, the public is on the underdog, part of the reason why this line has dropped and we’ve lost line value. However, I do think the Rams should win this one outright. These are comparable football teams and the Rams are in a way better spot.

St. Louis Rams 16 Minnesota Vikings 13 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: St. Louis +1.5

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (2-5) at St. Louis Rams (3-3)

The Rams are not as good as their 3-3 record, as they rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential. Given that, it might seem a little silly that they’re favored by 9 here against the 49ers. However, I think this line is pretty legitimate, as San Francisco is the worst team in the NFL by a wide margin, at least in terms of rate of moving the chains differential. Following their 20-3 loss at home to the Seahawks last week, this line has moved from 6 in the early line to 9 now, but I still think it’s appropriate. Typically, I like to fade significant line movements because they tend to be overreactions a single week, but I’m not going to be doing that this week.

The 49ers are also in a bad spot, as they host the Falcons next week, a game in which they’re expected to be 4 point home underdogs. Teams are 72-118 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3+, 40-79 ATS over that same time period before being 4+ point home underdogs, and 21-51 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs. If that line were to move to 6, it would open up another dooming trend, as 6+ point underdogs are 40-61 ATS before being 6+ point underdogs since 2012. Even if the line doesn’t end up going to 6, the logic still holds. Bad teams tend to struggle and lose big when they have an upcoming distraction. I’m not confident in the Rams at all, but they should be the right side.

St. Louis Rams 20 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: St. Louis -9

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (2-4) at St. Louis Rams (2-3)

One of the most important things to look at when picking a side against the spread is who the teams are playing next. Typically, the difficulty of a team’s upcoming matchup seems to at least correlate with their likelihood of covering this time. In this game between the Browns and Rams in St. Louis, the Browns have easily the tougher upcoming matchup, as they host the NFC West leading Arizona Cardinals, while the Rams host the bottom dwelling San Francisco 49ers. While the Browns are expected to be 4 point home underdogs, the Rams are expected to be at least 6 point home favorites next week. Teams are 71-123 ATS since 2010 before being 4+ point home underdogs and 109-67 ATS over that same time period as 6+ point favorites (as the Rams are here as 6.5 point favorites) before being 6+ point favorites (as the Rams are expected to be again next week against the 49ers).

However, the Rams really do not deserve to be favored by 6.5 points, as they rank 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, thanks to a pitiful offense that moves the chains at the league’s worst rate. Through 5 games, they have just 72 first downs to 97 for their opponents. There’s a very good chance they finish with 6 wins or fewer this season and teams that finish with that few wins only cover the spread about a quarter of the time as favorites of 6 or more. It’s a tough trend to use because you don’t always know that a team won’t win that many games, especially early in the season like this, but I’m making an educated guess.

Besides, the Browns, while they have their own issues, rank 18th in rate of moving the chains differential, so there’s really no reason the Rams should be favored by 6.5 here at home. They’re not 3.5-4 points better than the Browns. They should be favored by only like 2 points, even with an easy game on deck for the Rams and a tougher one on deck for the Browns. The Browns are missing defensive backs Joe Haden and Tashaun Gipson with injury in this one, but neither of them have been playing that well anyway. Meanwhile, the Rams are without outside linebacker Alec Ogletree and defensive end Chris Long from a defense that is keeping this team afloat. As long as this line is higher than 6, I have no problem putting money on the Browns.

St. Louis Rams 17 Cleveland Browns 16

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +6.5

Confidence: Medium

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St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Packers, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (4-0)

The Packers’ home dominance in recent years is well documented. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 29-11-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 37-4 straight up, with an absurd +589 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.37 points per game. Even though this is well documented, I still don’t think this line fully takes their home dominance into account, as they are mere 9 point favorites here over a vastly inferior Rams team. It’s either that or the odds makers are overrating the Rams.

I think it could be a little bit of both. The Rams’ won as 6.5 point underdogs in Arizona last week, but they didn’t play as well as that would suggest, as they lost the first down battle 26 to 13. The Rams moved the chains at a mere 66.67% rate, while the Cardinals, though they ended up losing by 2, moved them at a 71.05% rate. The only reason the Rams were able to win is because they won the turnover battle by 3 and it’s very tough to do that every week. Over the past 25 or so years, teams that win the turnover battle by 3, on average, have a +0.1 turnover margin the following week.

The Rams will have to find another way to keep this one close, especially since Rodgers hasn’t thrown an interceptions at home in 580 attempts, and I don’t think they’ll be able to. On the season, they rank just 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Packers rank 6th. I know it’s only been 4 games, but that’s definitely consistent with what we saw out of these two teams last season, when the Rams finished the season 22nd and the Packers finished 6th. If the Packers are beating the average team by two touchdowns at home, they should have no problem winning by that amount, if not more here against the Rams.

The Packers are also getting a key player back from injury for this one, as right tackle Bryan Bulaga is set to return from a knee injury that’s kept him out since week 1. Safety Morgan Burnett, who has only played once this season (week 2), and wide receiver Davante Adams, who also missed last week, will remain out, but getting Bulaga back is more important. The Packers have been able to replace Adams and Burnett pretty well with Micah Hyde and James Jones respectively, but replacement right tackle Don Barclay was horrendous in place of Bulaga, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked offensive tackle thus far this season. Bulaga, an above average right tackle, will be a significant upgrade and a big boost for an offensive line that has been the Packers’ only offensive problem area this season.

On the other side, the Rams have managed to suffer very few injuries during the season, but will be without linebacker Alec Ogletree for an extended period of time after he got hurt against Arizona. Todd Gurley being healthy definitely cancels that out and he ran well last week in his first game as the feature back, totaling 161 yards on 21 touches. However, it’s important to remember that Gurley, while he has tremendous upside, is a rookie coming off of a serious injury and to not get too far ahead of ourselves with him.

In addition to being the vastly superior team and having an amazing homefield advantage, the Packers are also in a great spot, with only a home game against San Diego on deck. They are expected to be 9 point favorites in that one as well and teams are 107-65 ATS since 2010 as favorites of 6 or more before being favorites of 6 or more again. The Rams don’t have any upcoming distractions either, going into a bye, but usually not having an upcoming distraction benefits the better team more than the underdog. Typically, I hate making huge wagers on huge favorites, but, even at 9, this line is way too low. The Packers should win this with ease and they are my Pick of the Week (and Survivor Pick).

Green Bay Packers 31 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -9

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 4 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (3-0)

No other team has been as successful in the first 3 weeks of the season as the Arizona Cardinals. Not only do they rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, they also rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains and 1st in rate of moving the chains allowed. Of course, they’ve also had arguably the league’s easiest schedule, beating New Orleans (0-3), Chicago (0-3), and San Francisco (1-2), none of whom seem likely to even sniff the post-season. The Rams might be the toughest opponent they’ve had yet and they’ve not very good either, 1-2 and also unlikely to sniff the post-season. I’m curious to see if the Cardinals, who are playing drastically better than they did last season, can keep it up once the schedule gets tougher, but we won’t find out this week.

The Cardinals are only favored by a touchdown here, despite the fact that they’ve won their first 3 games by an average of 25.67 points per game, winning each game by at least 12 points. As a result, the public is all over them, as the Cardinals as the most heavily backed team this week thus far. Typically I like to fade the public on heavy leans because they always lose money in the long run, but they might have the right side in this one. In addition to being significantly inferior to the Cardinals, the Rams are also in a terrible spot with another tough game, a trip to Green Bay, on deck. Teams are just 70-95 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs again and the Rams are expected to be 9 point underdogs next week. Arizona, meanwhile, goes to 0-3 Detroit next. I’m not that confident, but Arizona should be the right side.

Arizona Cardinals 24 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -7

Confidence: Low

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Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Rams, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at St. Louis Rams (1-1)

Anyone who follows me knows I love to go against significant line movements, as they tend to be overreactions to one week. This game has one of those, as the Rams have gone from 2.5 point favorites to 2 point underdogs here at home in the past week. It’s easy to understand why. The Rams lost as favorites in Washington, while the Steelers destroyed the visiting San Francisco 49ers last week. However, that was still just one week. What about the Rams’ victory over the Seahawks in St. Louis week 1? That game made everyone overreact last week, moving the line in both the St. Louis/Washington and the Green Bay/Seattle game significantly, but now everyone seems to be overreacting the other way, as the public is on the road favorite here. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it does here.

The line movement is still within the field goal on either side, but it’s still significant. The Steelers have had troubling getting up for these seemingly easy non-divisional road games in the past, going 8-20 ATS as non-divisional road favorites since 2007. They also just don’t really deserve to be road favorites here. This line suggests the Steelers are 5 points better than the Rams, meaning they’d be -8 at home against the Rams. Well, they were just -5.5 at home for the 49ers. I know the Steelers blew the 49ers out, but that’s still just one week. The Rams aren’t a great team because they lack much on offense around the quarterback, but they still had one of the best defenses in the league last year, a unit that is led by arguably the best defensive line in football and a unit that has played well thus far this season, and they upgraded at the quarterback position by adding Nick Foles this off-season.

The Steelers have a good offense and will get even better on the offensive side of the ball with Le’Veon Bell back from suspension, but they’re still missing center Maurkice Pouncey and wide receiver Martavis Bryant from an offense that was basically injury free last season. Meanwhile, their defense remains a huge problem and one that won’t get better with both nose tackle Daniel McClullers and middle linebacker Ryan Shazier hurt. Those are two of the few bright spots thus far on a defense that has ranked 30th in rate of moving the chains allowed through 2 games, after ranking 25th last season. The Rams, on the other hand, are healthier than they’ve been all season, with both Todd Gurley and Brian Quick seemingly set to return, in some capacity, from injury this week.

On top of that, the Steelers are in a bad spot with a Thursday Night game against Baltimore on deck. That could easily be a distraction, especially with a short week up next. Teams are 41-62 ATS as favorites before Thursday Night Football since 2008. Considering the Steelers have typically overlooked weak non-divisional opponents on the road like this in the Mike Tomlin era, the Steelers could have a very tough team getting up for this game with a Thursday Night battle against their archrival on deck. This game screams trap game and I’m happy to take the points as long as I’m getting them.

St. Louis Rams 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: St. Louis +2

Confidence: High

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St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 2 NFL Picks, Commanders, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (1-0) at Washington Redskins (0-1)

Last week, the Redskins were 3.5 point home underdogs for the Miami Dolphins and ended up losing 17-10. This week, they are 3.5 point home underdogs again, but to a team that I think is significantly inferior to the Miami Dolphins, the St. Louis Rams. The Rams had an impressive performance last week in a 34-31 overtime win over the Seahawks, but they likely just caught the Seahawks off guard, especially since they were missing safety Kam Chancellor. The Seahawks were on the road, where they haven’t been as good as they’ve been at home and the team that lost the Super Bowl the previous year is notoriously bad week 1. It was only a 3 point upset, but everyone is acting like it was so much more than that.

The Rams upgraded the quarterback position this off-season by bringing in Nick Foles, arguably the best quarterback they’ve had since Marc Bulger, and they have arguably the best defensive line in football, but their offensive talent around Foles is limited, especially without wide receiver Brian Quick and running back Todd Gurley, who are expected out again this week, and their defensive back 7 has plenty of issues, especially with cornerback EJ Gaines out for the season with a foot injury. The Redskins have their own injury issues with top receiver DeSean Jackson out with a hamstring problem and quarterback Kirk Cousins might be the worst starting quarterback in the NFL, but they’ve drastically improved one of the worst defenses in the league this off-season with the additions of Chris Culliver, Stephen Paea, and Terrance Knighton. They don’t deserve to be 3.5 point underdogs here. That means they would be 9.5 point underdogs in St. Louis, which I don’t think makes sense.

The Rams’ victory last week pushed this line from 2.5 to 3.5, over the key number of 3, and yet the public continues to be all over the Rams. I love betting against huge public leans whenever it makes sense because the public always loses money in the long run. In this case, I think the public is overreacting to one week and underestimating homefield advantage. The Rams could also be flat off of such a big, emotional victory. Teams are 1-10 ATS since 1989 as favorites off of an overtime win as home underdogs. I know it’s a small sample size, but it makes sense and it’s worth noting. It’s hard to be confident in the Redskins with Cousins under center and Jackson out, but they should be the right side here.

St. Louis Rams 17 Washington Redskins 16

Pick against the spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 1 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Rams, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-0)

To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too low because homefield advantage is underestimated, as most people don’t understand that home vs. away is worth about 6 points on average.

Unfortunately, a lot of those road favorites are small road favorites over teams that they’re clearer better, so it’s so tempting to take all of the road favorites. I’m not afraid to do take a road favorite; in fact, my pick of the week is Miami -3.5 in Washington, but that’s fine because Miami is underrated and that’s just too low of a line. Teams like Indianapolis (projected for 12 wins) would seem to be an easy choice as mere 3 point favorites on the road over Buffalo (projected for 6 wins). The same is true with Carolina (8 wins) as 3.5 point favorites over Jacksonville (3 wins), Minnesota (9 wins) as 2.5 point favorites over San Francisco (4 wins), Philadelphia (10 wins) as 3 point favorites over Atlanta (5 wins), and Cincinnati (9 wins) as 3 point favorites over Oakland (3 wins).

I don’t want to pick all of the road favorites though and I’m taking St. Louis (6 wins) as 4 point home underdogs to cover against Seattle (13 wins) here 4 reasons. For one, the line is 4, so it’s easier for the Rams to cover without winning. Two, Super Bowl losers tend to struggle week 1 of the following season, going 5-16 ATS in that spot in the past 21 instances. Three, the Seahawks will be without Kam Chancellor with a holdout for at least the start of the season. Four, Seattle hasn’t been the same team away from Seattle over the past few years, going 48-21 (outscoring opponents by an average of 7.84 points per game) at home since 2007, as opposed to 26-42 (getting outscored by an average of 3.35 points per game) on the road. None of these are minor reasons, but I like the Rams here for a no confidence pick. Seattle is a much better team on paper, but, if I have to take a side, I’m going with the Rams.

Seattle Seahawks 16 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: St. Louis +4

Confidence: None

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