Texans

New York Jets at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (5-4) at Houston Texans (4-5)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, I think this line is probably too high at 3.5 in favor of the visiting Jets in Houston. The Texans are no pushover and have won 3 of their last 4 games, including last week in Cincinnati against the previously undefeated Bengals. They rank 15th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re likely going to be missing quarterback Brian Hoyer, who has been playing well, but their defense is solid too, ranking 12th in rate of moving the chains allowed, and TJ Yates probably isn’t a huge downgrade from Hoyer.

The Jets, meanwhile, rank 5th, though they are probably going to be without talented defensive end Sheldon Richardson. Considering close to one in four games are decided by a field goal or less, the Jets shouldn’t be favored by 3.5 here. However, the Texans are in a bad spot. Teams are 36-58 ATS since 1989 off of a road victory as 10+ point underdogs and the Texans could be overconfident after last week’s victory in Cincinnati. That win wasn’t totally fluky as the Texans are a solid team, but there were definitely some fluky aspects to it. The Texans are still the pick, but it’s a no confidence pick.

New York Jets 16 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: Houston +3.5

Confidence: None

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Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (2-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-0)

The Bengals are one of three remaining 8-0 undefeated teams and rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential. The Texans are a solid team, ranking 16th in rate of moving the chains, but this line, at 11 in favor of the Bengals, is pretty fair given the talent levels of these two teams. The Texans will probably be missing outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney, but Cincinnati right tackle Andre Smith has yet to be cleared with a concussion. Assuming he’s out, those injuries would cancel out, so this line is pretty appropriate.

The Bengals are in a tough spot though, with a trip to Arizona on deck, one of the toughest games of their season and one of the few games the Bengals have in which they will be underdogs. Favorites of 10+ are 54-71 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs the following week. The Texans, meanwhile, host the Jets, a game in which the Texans could be favored, following the Jets’ home loss to the Bills on Thursday Night. Favorites are 96-166 ATS before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites since 2008. Even if the Texans are small underdogs in that one, the logic still holds. The Bengals have an upcoming distraction, while the Texans don’t. Despite that, the public is all over the Bengals. I like fading the public whenever it makes sense and I think it does here. I’m reasonably confident in the Texans.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Houston +11

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (1-5) at Houston Texans (2-5)

The Texans are going into a bye this week. That might sound like a good thing, but it’s not, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-20 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the Redskins are here do not. Teams who are favored by 1-5.5 points at home going into the bye are just 37-61 ATS over that aforementioned time period, as they tend to get caught looking forward to the bye. That could definitely happen to the Texans, who are 4 point favorites here against the Titans.

This line is also probably too high, as the Titans rank 15th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Texans rank 18th. The Titans are missing quarterback Marcus Mariota and cornerback Perrish Cox for the 2nd straight game, but the Texans aren’t in a great situation injury wise either. Defensive starters Kareem Jackson and Benardrick McKinney remain out, while the Texans were dealt a crippling blow last week when Arian Foster tore his Achilles and went down for the season. I’m not confident in the Titans, but I’m taking them here.

Houston Texans 20 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +4

Confidence: None

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Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (2-3)

The Dolphins were the most disappointing team in the league for the first 4 weeks, going 1-3 (with one win on a punt return), and getting demolished by two divisional rivals, the Bills and the Jets, in games that were technically Miami home games. They used the week 5 bye to fire head coach Joe Philbin and install interim head coach Dan Campbell, previously the tight ends coach. Though Campbell has no head coaching or even coordinator experience, he seemed to do a good job with them in the transition period, as the Dolphins blew out the Titans 38-10 in Tennessee off of the bye last Sunday.

As a result, this line has shifted from 1.5 last week to 5 this week. Typically, I love to fade huge week-to-week line movements because they’re typically the result of overreactions to one week. This game will be no exception, as I think this line is way too high. The Dolphins still only rank 24th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re probably more talented than that suggests, but they’re a deeply flawed team with major issues in the secondary and on the offensive line and also have a very inexperienced head coach and coaching staff.

The Texans have their own issues, but are playing much better of late, since switching back to Brian Hoyer at quarterback. Hoyer is Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked quarterback this season and Houston ranks 13th in rate of moving the chains differential. There’s no way the Dolphins should be favored by 5 here, especially given that the Dolphins are just 3-7 ATS at home favored by 3+ points since Ryan Tannehill arrived in 2012. They shouldn’t be getting more than 2 points for their homefield advantage, which means that you should only take the Dolphins if you think they’re at least 3 points better than the Texans. I don’t think they are.

The Dolphins are also in a horrific spot, having to turn around and face the Patriots 4 days after this one, as they go to Foxboro for Thursday Night Football next week. Teams are 51-90 ATS since 2010 before being underdogs of 10 or more (the early line is NE –10.5). That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. In this case, it’s more the first, but, as we’ve established, they’re not a great team either.

The Texans, meanwhile, host the Titans next week, a game in which they’ll definitely be favored in Houston. Favorites before being underdogs (like the Dolphins are) are 70-113 ATS when their opponent will next be favorites (like the Texans are) since 2010. Combining the two, favorites who will next be 10+ point underdogs are 19-47 ATS when their opponent will next be favorites since 1989. On top of that, the Dolphins are favorites before Thursday Night Football. Teams are 41-66 ATS in that spot since 2008. With arguably their hardest game of the season on deck, just 4 days after this one, I really don’t expect the Dolphins to be focused at all for the Texans.

The only edge the Dolphins have is in terms of these two respective team’s injury situations. The Texans will be missing starting cornerback Kareem Jackson and middle linebacker Benardrick McKinney for this one, though the former really hasn’t been playing that well this season. The Dolphins are just missing starting cornerback Brice McCain and he’s one of the worst starting cornerbacks in football. Still, I have no problem taking the Texans +5 as my Pick of the Week. The Dolphins will have trouble winning this one by more than a field goal.

Houston Texans 20 Miami Dolphins 17 Upset Pick +180

Pick against the spread: Houston +5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (1-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4)

Both of these two teams are 1-4, but the Texans are the better of the two teams. They have just one loss by more than a touchdown and rank 18th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Jaguars rank 30th. Despite that, the Jaguars are favored by 2 points, suggesting these teams are close to even. I disagree with that and I don’t think the Jaguars should be favored by 2 points over anyone other than a few awful teams (San Francisco and Tampa Bay come to mind).

The Jaguars also have to go to London next week to take on the Bills. Teams are just 6-16 ATS all-time before an international game. It’s a small sample size, but the trend makes a ton of sense. The Texans have to go to Miami next week, but that’s not that bad. The only reason I’m not putting money on the Texans is injuries, as they’ll be without talented outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney with injury. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are getting healthy. While they have lost right guard Brandon Linder to injury and while they could be without running back TJ Yeldon in this one, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, safety John Cyprien, middle linebacker Paul Posluszny, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, left guard Luke Joeckel, and tight end Julius Thomas have all missed time with injury thus far this season and will all play this week. It’s not enough for me to be too worried about the Jaguars winning, but enough to stay away from making a higher confidence pick.

Houston Texans 16 Jacksonville Jaguars 13 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Houston +2

Confidence: Low

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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at Houston Texans (1-3)

Andrew Luck missed the first game of his career last week, a late scratch with a right shoulder injury. The injury was reportedly not severe, so many thought the Colts were just holding him out ahead of a short week on the road here in Houston on Thursday Night Football, but he’s inactive once again. It still doesn’t sound like it’s a serious injury for Luck and it sounds like that the Colts are just holding him out on a short week ahead of arguably the biggest game of the Colts’ season next week at home for New England (more on how that’s relevant to this game later), but no one outside of the organization has seen him practice since the injury so who knows.

Luck is not the Colts’ only major injury. Top defensive players cornerback Vontae Davis, safety Mike Adams, and defensive end Henry Anderson are all active, but none of the three practiced this week. On top of that, linebackers Jerrell Freeman and Bjoern Werner are also out, while replacement quarterback Matt Hasselbeck didn’t practice at all this week on a short week and was in the hospital as recently as Tuesday with an illness. Hasselbeck was decent against Jacksonville last week, but the Jaguars have one of the worst defenses in the league. The Texans have a better defense and Hasselbeck has to face them at less than 100%, on the road, on a short week. Luck to the now 40-year-old Hasselbeck was already one of the biggest starter to backup quarterback downgrades in the NFL so the Colts could have a very tough time moving the ball through the air tonight.

The Texans, meanwhile, are getting healthier. While marginal receivers Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington will miss this game, leaving them very thin at receiver behind DeAndre Hopkins, but both left tackle Duane Brown and running back Arian Foster, two much more important offensive players, are both in their 2nd game back and should both play better this week. The Texans also don’t really have any injuries after Shorts and Washington.

Even if Luck were healthy, I would have taken the Texans (though obviously not as 5 point favorites) for a number of reasons. The Colts still have a weak supporting cast, no matter who the quarterback is. Their offensive line, running game, and defense are all subpar. Even before you take injury situations into account, these two teams have also played comparably to each other this season, despite pre-season expectations, as the Colts rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential and the Texans rank 15th.

The Colts, at full strength, are probably still the more talented team, but they’re not at full strength and they’re not the same team they were in 2013 and 2014, when they were head and shoulders above the rest of the division, going a combined 12-0. The Colts have won both of their divisional games this season, but didn’t cover the spread in either, after covering the spread in all 12 divisional games in 2013 and 2014, and could have easily lost both games, winning by a combined 5 points. In their other two games, they’ve gotten blown out by the Jets and Bills, perhaps solid teams, but not the NFL’s cream of the crop or anything. They definitely can’t afford to look past a capable Texans team here.

The Colts definitely could look past the Texans somewhat here, as they are in a bad spot. The Texans have a trip to Jacksonville on deck, while the Colts have to host the Patriots next week. The Colts are expected 5 point underdogs at home for New England. Teams are 66-111 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, 35-76 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, and 19-50 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you’re about to host a very tough opponent, serving as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. In this scenario, it’s more than former than the latter, but the Colts also aren’t that good, especially as banged up as they are.

There are a couple reasons I wouldn’t put money on the Texans, in addition to the Colts’ recent divisional dominance. I don’t think that matters too much now with the way the Colts have been playing and how banged up they are, but it’s still worth mentioning. Also worth mentioning is the fact that the Colts are 18-5 ATS against sub .500 teams in week 4 or later since 2011, but, again, I don’t know how much that matters with the way the Colts have been playing and how banged up they are. I just really wish we were getting a little bit more line value with the Texans. I’d put money on them at 3 or so, but this line is 5, so I’ll stay away.

Houston Texans 20 Indianapolis Colts 13

Pick against the spread: Houston -5

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-0)

I had the Falcons as one of the least talented teams in the league on paper going into the season, but they’ve started 3-0. What’s gone differently? Well, the Matt Ryan to Julio Jones connection hasn’t just been great, it’s been record breaking, as Jones has caught 34 passes (most in the first 3 games of the season in NFL history) for 440 yards and 4 touchdowns. The offensive line and running game have also performed better than I expected, but, other than that, not much.

They still don’t have a good 2nd option in the passing game. They haven’t exactly needed one yet, but Jones probably won’t catch the 181 passes for he’s on pace for (which would beat the current single season record by 38) so lack of a 2nd option is still somewhat of a concern. The defense, meanwhile, has still been awful, aside from top cornerback Desmond Trufant. The Falcons are 3-0, but they could have easily lost against both Philadelphia and the Giants and then got the Cowboys when they were down, missing both Tony Romo and Dez Bryant, along with a bunch of guys at defensive end. Their awful defense still allowed the depleted Cowboys’ offense to move the ball up and down the field with ease for most of the game.

However, the Falcons could still easily move to 5-0 without breaking a sweat or really playing that well, hosting the Texans this week and then the Redskins next week. Facing the NFC East, the AFC South, and playing in the week NFC South, the Falcons are going to end up having one of the easiest schedules in the league this season. Division rival Carolina, who has also had a very easy schedule, is also 3-0 without being very talented. The Falcons are in a great spot here with another easy game on deck. Teams are 105-65 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again, as the better team usually takes care of business with no upcoming distractions. The Texans, meanwhile, have a tough game on deck as they host the Indianapolis Colts in a few days on Thursday Night Football.

I still don’t love taking an average at best Atlanta team as 6.5 point favorites that much. The Texans aren’t very good either, but this line is still probably too high, especially since it’s moved from 3.5 to 6.5 in a week. That feels like an overreaction to Atlanta being 3-0, though I do think the line was too low to begin with. Texans are also in a good spot, as week 4 underdogs who just won their first game of the season week 3 are 32-10 ATS since 1989. The Texans also could be getting both Duane Brown and Arian Foster back from injury. It’s unclear how much either will play or how effective either will be in their first game back, but it’s definitely a benefit to have arguably your two best offensive players back on the field. I’m ultimately taking the Texans and fading the public, who is heavy on the Falcons, but I’m not confident.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Houston +6.5

Confidence: None

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) at Houston Texans (0-2)

Ordinarily, I love fading significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to one week. For example, the Buccaneers were 8.5 point underdogs in this game in the early line last week, but now they’re only getting 6.5 points, as a result of an upset win in New Orleans against a Saints team that isn’t that good and whose quarterback was playing hurt. However, I actually think this line is still too high. Houston isn’t a very good team, especially with left tackle Duane Brown, left guard Jeff Adams, and running back Arian Foster all hurt. They don’t deserve to be favored by 6.5 points against anyone, especially not Tampa Bay, who proved last week that they are far from the worst team in the NFL.

One of the most powerful trends in betting is the six and six trend, which is very simple. Teams that finish with 6 or fewer wins only cover about a quarter of the time as favorites of 6 or more. It makes a lot of sense, but it’s usually very tough to know whether or not a team is going to finish with 6 or fewer wins. However, I think the Texans have a very good shot to. I had them at 6 wins in my season preview and they’ve ranked 26th in rate of moving the chains differential through 6 games, despite playing Kansas City and Carolina, who aren’t exactly elite teams. Even if the Texans do end up with 7 wins, it’ll be as a result of their weak division and I still don’t think they deserve to be favored by more than even 4 points in this one. Tampa Bay is improved over their 2-win 2014 team and also could win 7 games as a result of a weak schedule. These two teams are way more even than this line suggests, so I’m taking the 6.5 easily.

Houston Texans 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (0-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-0)

The Panthers are favored by a field goal here, but the public is actually on the Texans. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, especially when the public is on an underdog. The public always loses money in the long run and whenever the public thinks one team is going to win and the odds makers think another team is going to win, you usually want to go with the odds makers. The reason the Panthers are favored is because they’ll be without star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly, who is missing the first game of his career after playing the first 49 games, thanks to a concussion. They’ll likely also be without defensive tackle Star Lotulelei for the 2nd straight week with a foot problem.

The Texans aren’t exactly healthy either though, as running back Arian Foster, left tackle Duane Brown, and left guard Xavier Su’a-Filo are all expected out. The Texans’ defense is healthy and will get an added boost this week as Jadeveon Clowney is expected to get his snap limit lifted, after knee surgery limited him to 30 of 70 defensive snaps week 1. The 2014 1st overall pick looked good in limited action last week. However, the Texans’ offense is a mess, with little talent at quarterback and running back, a banged up offensive line, and no #2 receiving threat behind DeAndre Hopkins. I’m not confident, but I’m going with the favorite here.

Carolina Panthers 17 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -3

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)

This is the 2nd toughest game of the week for me, behind Indianapolis -3 in Buffalo. The Texans are currently at -1 here at home for the Chiefs, but they’re also a pick ‘em in some places and could move to single point home underdogs before game time, as the public is on the road team. I’m very wary of picking the Chiefs for that reason. I like to fade the public whenever it’s possible because they always lose money in the long run and I especially like to fade the public whenever they’re on the underdog. Whenever the public consensus picks an underdog to win straight up, it usually doesn’t work out. The favorite is favored for a reason.

I realize that the Texans are mere point favorites here, if that, and that the Chiefs could be favorites by game time, but I’d be wary of them as road favorites as well. That would make them one of 9 road favorites in a very weird week to start the season and I’ve already taken a bunch of road favorites, something I hate to do. I only did that because they were small road favorites who just needed to win straight up essentially and who were much better than their opponent overall. That’s not the case here and, while I expect the Chiefs (projected for 8 wins) to win here in Houston over the Texans (projected for 6 wins), it’s hard to say I’m confident in that, especially with the public on the underdog.

Kansas City Chiefs 21 Houston Texans 19 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +1

Confidence: None

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