Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)

The Jaguars will start their third quarterback of the season, opting to go with veteran backup Mike Glennon, with starter Gardner Minshew still out with injury and rookie backup Jake Luton struggling mightily in his 3-game stint as the starter, including a 4-interception performance at home against the Steelers last week. As strange as it sounds, when Glennon was named the starter, I thought I was going to be betting the Jaguars this week. 

Glennon is a journeyman backup, but even a low end backup quarterback would represent an upgrade on Luton. Meanwhile the Browns have not been nearly as good as their 7-3 record, with a negative point differential at -23, despite a +6 turnover margin that is tied for the 4th best in the NFL and a relatively easy schedule. In terms of schedule adjusted first down rate differential, the Browns rank 26th at -2.17% and, making matters worse for the Browns, they saw their top-2 defensive players, defensive end Myles Garrett and cornerback Denzel Ward, both ruled out early in the week. 

It seemed like Glennon and company could move the ball and keep this one somewhat close and it didn’t hurt that the Jaguars were in a good spot, as home underdogs cover at a 53.7% rate after a loss as home underdogs, including 42-30 ATS since 1989 after a loss by 20 or more points. However, then the Jaguars’ own injury issues came to light, which made them a significantly less attractive bet. 

Already down top edge defender Josh Allen on defense after an early week rule out, the Jaguars’ offense will be without talented left guard Andrew Norwell and two of their top wide receivers DJ Chark and Chris Conley, which limits Glennon’s chances of keeping this close. My calculated line is Cleveland -6, so we’re still getting line value with the Jaguars, which, combined with the Jaguars good spot, leads me to think they’re the right side, but I don’t really want to bet on it, especially with the uncertainty of this being Glennon’s first start since 2017.

Cleveland Browns 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 26

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +7

Confidence: Low

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (6-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-0)

I did a double take when I saw this spread was posted at just a touchdown in favor of the Steelers, after the announcement of further COVID absences by the Ravens, including quarterback Lamar Jackson, and the rescheduling of this game to Tuesday Night. Originally, the Ravens were 4 point underdogs in this game, but somehow the absence of Jackson and others only moved this spread by 3 points. I was strongly considering betting the Steelers at -4 even with Jackson in the lineup, so getting them at just -7 now with backup Robert Griffin in the lineup is a great value.

I have been saying for weeks that the Ravens are overrated as their offense isn’t close to last year’s group. Even before losing their most important offensive player in Lamar Jackson, the Ravens were already down arguably their three most important offensive players from last year in right guard Marshal Yanda (retired), left tackle Ronnie Stanley (broken leg week 8), and tight end Nick Boyle (season ending knee injury week 10). With Jackson at quarterback all season, the Ravens have fallen all the way to 28th in first down rate over expected at -2.40%. Now also missing starting center Matt Skura, Marshal Yanda’s replacement at right guard Patrick Mekari, and two of their top-3 running backs JK Dobbins and Mark Ingram due to positive COVID tests, the Ravens are going to have a very difficult time scoring against the Steelers league best defense.

The Ravens are still solid on defense, ranking 12th in first down rate allowed over expected at -0.56%, but they’re not at 100% on that side of the ball either, with top defensive lineman Calais Campbell out and possibly fellow starting defensive linemen Brandon Williams and Justin Madubuike as well. Campbell hasn’t played since week 9 and this defense hasn’t been the same without him. The Steelers aren’t without their own absences, most notably talented defensive lineman Stephon Tuitt who also tested positive for COVID, but it’s nothing close to what the Ravens are dealing with. My calculated line has the Steelers favored by 10.5 points, even with no fans in the stadium. I love Pittsburgh at 7 and even if you can’t get this line before it likely goes up, the Steelers should still be worth a bet this week, depending on how high it goes.

Update: Hopefully you locked this in when I did. The Ravens have been hit with additional positives and will also be without right tackle DJ Fluker, tight end Mark Andrews, and edge defender Matthew Judon. The Steelers have positives as well, but nothing compared to what the Ravens will be without. This line has shot up to 10 in some places, but I still don’t think that line is high enough, as the Ravens’ skeleton crew is going to have a very tough time being competitive with one of the top teams in the league.

Update: Apparently my sportsbook (betonline . ag) cancelled this bet at 7. I am not sure why this happened because the additional COVID positives since I placed that bet were on both sides and relatively minor and I am not sure when it happened or why I wasn’t notified so I could make another bet at the new number. This is my first year with this book and I’ve had a variety of issues with them that I may go into at a later date depending on how they get resolved. If you weren’t lucky enough to lock this in at 7, this is still worth betting up to 10 (the line is 9.5 in some places), albeit not as much it was at Pittsburgh -7.

Already significantly worse than last season due to the absence of left tackle Ronnie Stanley, right guard Marshal Yanda, and tight end Nick Boyle, the Ravens will play this game without starting quarterback Lamar Jackson, starting wide receiver Willie Snead, tight end and top target Mark Andrews, starting center Matt Skura, starting right guard Patrick Mekari, top defensive linemen Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams, and edge defenders Matt Judon and Pernell McPhee, along with possibly running backs JK Dobbins and Mark Ingram and right tackle DJ Fluker.

The Steelers aren’t at full strength either with stud defensive end Stephon Tuitt and starting running back James Conner both out and they haven’t blown out a lot of teams (3 wins by double digits), but this should be a 4th double digit win. My calculated line would have been Pittsburgh -6 even before the Ravens’ COVID absences and my new calculated line is Pittsburgh -12, even before taking into account that the Ravens haven’t really practiced, which probably should add 2-3 points to that total. The Steelers should be a safe bet up to 10 as this one shouldn’t be close.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Baltimore Ravens 10

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -9.5

Confidence: Medium

Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (6-4) at New England Patriots (4-6)

The Patriots are just 4-6, but they appear to have made the right decision to move on from Tom Brady and not guarantee him 50 million dollars for his age 43 and 44 seasons in 2020 and 2021 like the Buccaneers did. Brady is having some success in Tampa Bay, but he has a much better team around him with the Buccaneers and likely would not be having the same success in New England. In fact, there is an argument to be made that the Patriots would be worse off with Brady than with Cam Newton, even before taking into account that Newton is making next to nothing, allowing the Patriots to maintain long-term financial flexibility and shorten the length of their rebuild.

After ranking just 21st in the NFL in first down rate last season with Brady, the Patriots rank 8th in first down rate over expected this season at +1.84%. The Patriots have a better offensive line and running game this season, but they also don’t have their only consistent veteran wide receiver in Julian Edelman, who will miss his 5th straight game. The Patriots don’t have much of a passing game this season, but it’s unlikely it would have been much better with Brady throwing to these unproven receivers and Newton’s running ability at least gives this offense another dimension to make up for their lack of a downfield passing game. Overall, the Patriots’ offense hasn’t been the problem. 

The big problem is their defense, which led the league in first down rate allowed by a wide margin last season, but has fallen to 24th in first down rate allowed over expected at +1.80%. That’s understandable, given that 6 of their top-11 in snaps from last year’s defense are no longer with the team, either leaving in free agency, trade, or opting out. Even with their defensive struggles though, they’ve been better than their record suggests, as they’ve played a tough schedule and have gone just 2-4 in one score games. 

In terms of schedule adjusted first down rate differential, the Patriots rank a middling 19th at +0.04% and they could easily be better than that going forward, because they’re healthier now than they’ve been and because offense is much more predictable and consistent on a week-to-week basis than defense. If their defense can even be middling going forward, this won’t be an easy team to face. My roster rankings are even more generous, ranking them 12th. The Patriots have had a couple stinker performances in recent weeks, nearly losing to the Jets and losing to the Texans, but they were in a bad spot in both of these games, before and after a big upset victory over the Ravens. Coming off of last week’s loss, I would expect much better focus from New England this week.

Instead, it could be New England’s opponents who aren’t totally focused, with the Cardinals potentially looking ahead to a key divisional matchup with the Rams next week in Arizona. The Cardinals are a very similar team to the Patriots, with their defense significantly lagging behind their offense, and these two teams rank about even in my roster rankings. We’re only getting a point and a half with the Patriots as home underdogs, so there isn’t enough here for the Patriots’ money line to be worth betting without any fans in the stands, but these two teams are about even except for the spot and with the Patriots in the better spot, I would expect them to sneak out a close victory, so the Patriots should be the better side for pick ‘em purposes. The money line at +110 is worth a small bet, as the Patriots should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game straight up and my calculated line is New England -1.5.

New England Patriots 33 Arizona Cardinals 31 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: New England +1.5

Confidence: Low

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (6-4) at New York Jets (0-10)

The Jets haven’t won a game yet, but they’ve played better in recent weeks. In their last four games, their only loss by more than one score came against the Chiefs and they were able to keep it within a touchdown against capable opponents in the Bills, Patriots, and Chargers. That doesn’t sound like much of an accomplishment, but considering they lost each of their first 6 games of the season by at least 9 points and an average of 18.33 points, it represents progress. The Jets still rank dead last in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at -7.00%, but a lot of that is because of how much they struggled earlier in the season and they’ve actually moved out of the basement to 30th in my roster rankings. 

While the Jaguars and Bengals both being extremely banged up is a big part of the reason why the Jets moved ahead of them in my roster rankings, the Jets are also improved, primarily due to their offense being healthier, especially in the receiving corps, where the Jets have gotten each of their top-3 wide receivers back from injury in Jamison Crowder (4 games missed), Denzel Mims (6 games), and Breshad Perriman (4 games) in recent weeks. That’s been the biggest reason for their improvement on the field and, this week, they’ll get starting quarterback Sam Darnold back as well. While Darnols has hardly been impressive in his career, he’s still the Jets’ best quarterback and he’ll have his full complement of receivers available to him this week for the first time all season, so this offense has the upside to be much improved.

When these two teams back in week 6, the Dolphins utterly dominated the Jets in a 24-0 victory in which they won the first down rate battle by 13.30%, but the Jets didn’t have Darnold, left tackle Mekhi Becton, or wide receiver Denzel Mims in that game, which were big absences. On top of that, the Dolphins were still starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick back then and their offensive efficiency numbers have been better with him under center this season than with raw rookie Tua Tugavailoa, who will also be playing through a hand injury that knocked him out of the Dolphins’ loss in Denver last week.

That loss wasn’t really a fluke either, as the Dolphins have not been as good as their 6-4 record, ranking 22nd in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at -0.83%. The Dolphins have faced an easy schedule and they have benefitted from things like a +6 turnover margin, a +3 return touchdown margin, and a 63.64% opponent’s field goal percentage (best in the NFL), three things that tend to be totally unpredictable on a week-to-week basis. With the Jets being better in recent weeks, my calculated line for this game is just Miami -4, so we’re getting good line value with the Jets at +6.5. There isn’t enough here for me to actually want to bet money on the Jets this week, something I haven’t done all year, but if this line moves up to 7, I would strongly consider it, as the Jets seem to finally be bettable.

Update:  Tua Tagovailoa was surprisingly ruled out for the Dolphins today, so Ryan Fitzpatrick will now get the start instead. I think that improves the Dolphins’ chances in this game and the odds makers and sharps seem to agree, pushing this line up to a full touchdown. With Fitzpatrick, my calculated line is Miami -5, so we’re still getting line value with the Jets, but I have no interest in betting them. 

Update: The Jets are surprisingly going to be without left guard Alex Lewis, even though he practiced throughout the week. The Jets will already be down their right tackle, which wasn’t a huge deal because their receiving corps is significantly better than it was earlier this season, but missing two offensive linemen is going to be a problem against a good Dolphins defensive front. I’m dropping all confidence on this game, but remaining on the Jets slightly.

Miami Dolphins 23 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +7

Confidence: None

New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (8-2) at Denver Broncos (4-6)

Sean Payton is getting a lot of credit for starting Taysom Hill over Jameis Winston in a 24-9 win over the Falcons, but the decision probably didn’t matter, as that win was really more about the Saints’ defense, which held a decent Falcons offense to just a 23.72% first down rate. That allowed the Saints to run the run heavy offense they wanted to run, which allowed Taysom Hill to avoid being exposed as a passer. The jury is still out on Hill as a starting quarterback, going into just his second career start, but there’s no denying the talent on the rest of this team, and, even with Hill being a questionable starting quarterback, the Saints still rank 6th in my roster rankings. 

In terms of schedule adjusted first down rate differential, the Saints rank 3rd at +4.15% and are the only team in the league to rank in the top-10 in first down rate over expected on offense (4th at +2.48%) and on defense (8th at -1.67%). That’s despite the fact that the Saints had a lot of injury problems even when Brees was in the lineup, with top wide receiver Michael Thomas (6 games missed), talented defensive linemen Marcus Davenport (4 games) and David Onyemata (1 game), starting cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins (2 games) and Marshon Lattimore (2 games), starting tight end Jared Cook (1 game), and #2 wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (2 games) all missing time with injury earlier in the year and having since returned.

Hill is unlikely to be exposed this week either, with the Saints being 6-point road favorites in Denver. The Broncos rank 30th in first down rate over expected at -4.27% and have one of the most turnover prone quarterbacks in the league under center in Drew Lock, so I would expect them to have a very tough time moving the ball against a Saints defense that is legitimately one of the best in the NFL, which would allow the Saints to run their offense the way they want to run it again this week. 

The Broncos do have a strong defense, ranking 3rd in first down rate allowed over expected at -4.15%, but they’re missing one of the top defensive players in defensive tackle Shelby Harris and defensive play tends to be much more inconsistent on a week-to-week basis than offense, so the Broncos’ defense is unlikely to be as reliably good as their offense is reliably bad. The Saints are a balanced team that is still one of the better teams in the league without Brees and they’re on an impressive run right now, winning 7 straight since starting 1-2, something they seem to do every season, going 89-57-7 ATS in weeks 3-17 since 2010, as opposed to 4-17-1 ATS in weeks 1-2.

The Saints are also in a better spot than the Broncos, who have to turn around and play another tough game against a Chiefs team that has dominated their division in recent years and that blew them out earlier this season, while the Saints only have a rematch against a Falcons team that they just beat easily last week, so they should be fully focused. The Broncos are 13-point underdogs on the early line in Kansas City and teams cover at just a 37.5% rate all-time before being double digit underdogs.

We’re not getting line value with the Saints as 6-point favorites, as New Orleans -6 is right where I have this line calculated, but the Broncos have some key offensive players that seem legitimately questionable in wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, right tackle Demar Dotson, and right guard Graham Glasgow, who would all be big absences if they were unable to go. Depending on what happens with the Broncos’ injury report, I may decide to place a bet on the Saints, especially if this line drops back down to 5.5, where it was on the early line last week. Even if not, the Saints should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Update: Saints left tackle Terron Armstead is going to be out after testing positive for COVID on Saturday, which is a big blow for a Saints offense against a tough Broncos pass rush. Meanwhile, all three of the Broncos questionable players are expected to play. Despite that, this line has gone up to 6.5 in favor of the Saints in some places. Given all of that, I’m changing this pick to the Broncos. This is a no confidence pick because of the bad spot that the Broncos are in, but my calculated line is now New Orleans -4.5, so this line is off. The Saints should still be able to win this game, but it would be hard to lay this many points with them on the road without Brees and Armstead against a team that isn’t terrible.

Update: Losing Terron Armstead to a positive COVID test the day before the game was a big blow for the Saints, but that’s nothing compared to the Broncos’ situation, as somehow they couldn’t manage to keep their four quarterbacks separate and, as a result, will have to be without all of their quarterbacks this week, with Jeff Driskel testing positive and their other three quarterbacks being close contacts. Instead, the Broncos will have to turn to an undrafted rookie practice squad wide receiver who averaged 5.99 yards per attempt on 251 passes and 4.69 yards per carry on 186 carries as a dual threat quarterback at Wake Forest from 2015 to 2018 before converting to a wide receiver in his final collegiate season in 2019. As a result, this line has ballooned from 6.5 to 14.5.

This is an unprecedented situation so it’s hard to say this with confidence, but that seems like an overreaction. The Broncos’ quarterback play had already been terrible this season and extreme run heavy offenses have had more success than you’d think in the modern NFL. The Broncos still have a great defense and, even with their quarterbacks set to the lowest possible value, I still have the Broncos ahead of the Jets, Bengals, and Jaguars in my roster rankings. My calculated line is Denver +7.5, so we seem to be getting significant line value with them at Denver +14.5. I say seem to be because, again, this is a highly unprecedented situation, so it’s tough to know how to address it. The Broncos should be able to cover that huge spread in what should be a low scoring game overall (teams are 30-20 ATS as underdogs of 14 or more in a game with a total of 39 or less), but I’m not sure if I actually want to bet any money on it. Maybe I’ll be bolder before gametime. For now, it’s a low confidence pick.

Update: I can’t believe I’m doing this, but I’m going to bet on a team that doesn’t have a quarterback. This line has ballooned to 16.5 in some places. With the total at 36.5, the Broncos have a presumed total of 10 points in this game, but they have a decent running game, offensive line, and kicking game, especially at home with the elevation, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Broncos exceed that total.  They would just need to bust one long run and kick a couple of field goals. The Panthers hit that total exactly in 2006 when they ran 52 times for 183 yards in 10-3 win over the Falcons in a game in which they attempted just 7 passes and frequently played without a quarterback on the field.

Even if the Broncos can only hit to 10, the Saints will still need to get to 27 to cover this spread, which is going to be a tough task without their starting quarterback and left tackle against a good defense in a game that figures to have a very slow pace. I mentioned earlier that big favorites typically have trouble covering in games with big totals, but a team being favored this many with this small of a total almost never happens and teams are 1-4 ATS in this spot over the past thirty years. This is a highly unprecedented situation so it’s hard to be too confident, but the Broncos should be a reasonable safe bet at this number.

New Orleans Saints 20 Denver Broncos 10

Pick against the spread: Denver +16.5

Confidence: Medium

Las Vegas Raiders at Atlanta Falcons: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (3-7)

The Raiders are the only team to beat the Chiefs this season and they nearly beat them a second time last week and, even with that loss, they are still 6-4, but I’m still not that impressed with them. They seem to match up well with the Chiefs, but overall, they have just a +10 point differential and, while they’ve faced a tough schedule, they rank just 21st in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at -0.34%, as they have benefitted from an unsustainably high 51.61% third conversion rate on offense. That lines up with my roster rankings, which have them right at average as the 17th ranked roster in the league. 

The Raiders’ near win in Kansas City last week and the Falcons loss in New Orleans to backup quarterback Taysom Hill and the Saints has pushed this line from even on the early line last week to a full field goal this week, a significant swing given that 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or less. That’s an overreaction because the Raiders’ close game with the Chiefs was more about the Raiders matching up well with the Chiefs, while the Saints still rank 6th in my roster rankings despite losing Brees, so the Falcons’ loss in New Orleans isn’t as bad as it seems. 

The Falcons are just 3-7, but they could easily be 5-5 or even 6-4 if not for blowing three nearly impossible to blow leads. They haven’t faced a tough schedule outside of last week’s game against the Saints, but they aren’t far behind the Raiders in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at -2.40% and, in my roster rankings, they’re actually slightly better than the Raiders, suggesting they’ve underachieved their talent level this season. 

The Falcons being higher in my roster rankings is even taking into account that Falcons #1 wide receiver Julio Jones is questionable and seemingly a true gametime decision after practicing very little this week due to a hamstring injury. Jones’ status obviously will have a big effect on this game, but, even without him, the Falcons are a decent value for pick ‘em purposes and, if Jones plays and this line stays at a field goal, I’ll likely end up betting on the Falcons. I’ll have an update before gametime if that is the case.

Update: Jones is out for the Falcons, but they will have tight end Hayden Hurst and edge defender Dante Fowler healthy, which was in question, while the Raiders will be without questionable defensive end Clelin Ferrell, who is a valuable part of the Raiders’ defensive front even if he doesn’t have big sack numbers. Meanwhile, this line has shifted to 3.5 in some places. My calculated line is just Las Vegas -1, so that’s pretty decent line value. The Falcons have struggled to move the ball without Julio Jones this season, but they still have a mismatch with the Raiders secondary and should be able to move the ball pretty well. I like getting more than a field goal in a game that should be a close shootout. 

Las Vegas Raiders 31 Atlanta Falcons 30

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +3.5

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (3-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-7-1)

Coming out of their week 11 bye, the Giants are an underrated team, especially on offense. The Giants are generally considered to be a weak offense and in terms of first down rate they rank just 28th at 31.76%, but they’ve also faced a brutal schedule, somehow facing top-10 defenses in terms of first down rate allowed over expected in nine of their ten games, facing Pittsburgh (1st), Tampa Bay (2nd), the LA Rams (4th), Washington twice (5th), Chicago (6th), San Francisco (9th), and Philadelphia twice (10th). The Giants first down rate is 2.22% below average, but their schedule suggests they should be 2.96% below average right now, so the Giants actually rank 15th in first down rate over expected at +0.74%. 

That’s despite the fact that the Giants have had some absences on offense and are now mostly healthy, most importantly top wide receiver Sterling Shepard, who they have been noticeably better with on the field this season. The Giants haven’t been as good on defense, ranking 27th in first down rate allowed over expected at +2.09%, but defensive play tends to be much more inconsistent on a week-to-week basis than offense, so their defensive concerns aren’t as much of a problem as you’d think, especially since my roster rankings suggest they’re more talented on that side of the ball than they’ve played.

Given that they’re underrated compared to their 3-7 record, I was expecting to bet the Giants frequently over the rest of the season, but we’re not getting quite the line value I was expecting with them in their first game out of their bye, as they have ballooned to 6-point favorites in Cincinnati in the wake of Joe Burrow’s season ending injury, a massive swing from being 2.5-point underdogs on the early line last week. The Bengals have one of the worst backup quarterback situations in the league with Ryan Finley and presumed starter Brandon Allen both being borderline NFL quarterbacks, but an 8.5-point swing like that is normally reserved for an MVP caliber quarterback getting hurt, so this line isn’t that attractive.

That’s not to say I’m going to be taking the Bengals though, as not only are the Giants underrated, but the Bengals are truly dreadful without Burrow. Even with Burrow in the lineup for most of the season, the Bengals rank just 30th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at -3.82%, including a defense that ranks 31st in first down rate allowed over expected at +2.64%. Without Burrow, the Bengals rank on the same level as the Jaguars and Jets in my roster rankings, so, even if I disagree with a 8.5 point swing, I actually think this line is about right, as the Bengals would have been very overvalued as 2.5-point favorites with Burrow. 

The Giants are also in a great spot as big road favorites off of a bye, as teams are 61-33 ATS as road favorites of 3.5 or more off of a bye since 1989, including an 8-4 ATS record by teams with a sub-.500 record like the Giants. There’s not enough here for the Giants to be worth betting, but I would probably bet on them if this line drops back down to 5.5. Either way, the Giants should be the pick for pick ‘em purposes, as they should win this game pretty easily.

Update: This line has dropped to 5.5 in some places, so this is worth a play.

New York Giants 26 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -5.5

Confidence: Medium

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (5-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-3)

The Packers lost in overtime in Indianapolis last week, but the Colts are a solid team and the Packers outplayed them for most of the game, winning the first down rate battle by a pretty substantial 5.76% and only losing because they lost the turnover battle by 2. Turnovers are highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis, so any team that has a turnover margin of -2 in a game can be expected to be improved in that metric the following week, but that’s especially true for the Packers, who have one of the most careful quarterbacks in the league in Aaron Rodgers.

I would expect better focus this week out of a Packers team that is arguably the best in the NFL when relatively healthy, which they are right now, with key players like wide receiver Davante Adams (2 games missed), running back Aaron Jones (2 games missed), left tackle David Bakhtiari (3 games missed), defensive tackle Kenny Clark (3 games missed), cornerback Jaire Alexander (1 game missed), and safety Darnell Savage (1 game missed) all having returned from injury. The Packers have typically bounced back pretty well off of a loss (38-21 ATS) in the Aaron Rodgers era anyway, as is the case with most teams with high level quarterbacks. 

This line is pretty high, favoring the Packers by 8.5 points, but it’s arguably not high enough, given how bad their opponents are. Everyone knows the Bears’ five wins have all come by one score, including four games that all came down to the final play and a pair of nearly impossible comebacks, but what’s not mentioned enough is that in three of their five losses, they were down by 16 points, 21 points, and 21 points in the 4th quarter before some meaningless late scores, against the Colts, Titans, and Rams, while their 6-point loss to the Vikings came in a game in which the Bears got 8 points of benefit from their special teams. The Packers are as good or better than all of those teams, so it’s going to be very tough for the Bears to be competitive.

In terms of schedule adjusted first down rate differential, the Bears rank 23rd at -1.02% and there is reason to believe they’ll be worse than that going forward. They’ve been very reliant on a defense that ranks 6th in first down rate allowed over expected to cover for an offense that ranks 31st in first down rate over expected, which is a problem because defensive performance is much more inconsistent on a week-to-week basis than offensive performance. If their defense doesn’t play well every week, this team doesn’t have much of a shot to win games and even talented defenses can be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. 

The Bears are also pretty banged up, missing a pair of offensive linemen in left guard James Daniels and right tackle Bobby Massie and possibly a third with left tackle Charles Leno not practicing all week, while their defense could be without key defensive lineman Akiem Hicks, who also didn’t practice. The Bears will also be forced to go back to Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback with Nick Foles out, though with Foles playing like he has, I’m not sure how much that matters. Even with this big line, the Packers are worth a bet. Coming off of a loss, with only another easy game against the Eagles on deck (favorites of 6 or more are 87-55 ATS since 2016 before being favorites of 6 or more again), the Packers should be fully focused to blow out an inferior opponent. If Leno and Hicks are ruled out, I may increase this bet.

Update: Leno will play for the Bears, but Akiem Hicks will be out. Despite that, this line has dropped to 7.5 in most places. My calculated line is Green Bay -10 and that doesn’t even take into account that Aaron Rodgers and company should be fully focused off of a loss. I don’t see this one being close, so I’m upping this bet.

Green Bay Packers 24 Chicago Bears 12

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7.5

Confidence: High

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (7-3) at Indianapolis Colts (7-3)

These two teams met just two and a half weeks ago in week 10 on Thursday Night Football, with the Colts winning 34-17. That final score looks somewhat lopsided, but it was a much closer game that suggests, as the Titans led with a 71.5% chance of winning with 4 minutes left in the third quarter, before a series of special teams snafus. The Titans also won the first down rate battle in the game by 3.99%, which lines up with how these two teams have played on the season, with the Titans faring slightly better, ranking 15th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential, while the Colts rank 16th. 

The Titans are also better suited to continue playing well going forward because they’re an offensive led team (3rd in schedule adjusted first down rate and 29th in schedule adjusted first down rate allowed), while the Colts are a defensive led team (22nd and 11th) and offense tends to be much more consistent and predictive going forward than defense. Both teams can compete with almost anyone if their weaker side of the ball has a middling performance, but the Titans’ offense is better than the Colts’ defense and it’s more likely that the Titans’ weaker side of the ball has a middling performance than the Colts’ because of the inherent randomness of defensive play, so the Titans have the higher upside of these two teams.

Despite that, the Titans are 3.5 point underdogs here in Indianapolis, likely because the general public looks at what happens when these two teams met two weeks ago in Tennessee and assumes the Colts will have no problem winning in Indianapolis. However, the Colts are highly unlikely to dominate special teams like they did in the first matchup and homefield advantage doesn’t matter much this year with limited fan attendance, so I like the Titans chances of keeping this one competitive, if not winning straight up.

The Titans have lost top linebacker Jayon Brown and top edge defender Jadeveon Clowney since the last matchup, but neither one played particularly well in the first matchup and the Colts will also be without stud defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, which is a massive loss, as well as fellow defensive starters linebacker Bobby Okereke and defensive tackle Denico Autry and starting center Ryan Kelly. I have the Titans a half point better in my roster rankings, suggesting the Colts should be favored by no more than a point with limited homefield advantage, but with the Titans’ vastly superior offensive prowess, there is also a good chance they can pull the upset straight up. Either way, I like their chances of covering the 3.5 a lot.

Update: It’s all good on the injury report for the Titans with Saffold and Jones both playing and center Ryan Kelly and running back Jonathan Taylor being ruled out for the Colts. If I didn’t like the Buccaneers so much this week, this would be my Pick of the Week.

Tennessee Titans 26 Indianapolis Colts 24 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3.5

Confidence: High

Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4)

The Buccaneers lost at home to the Rams on Monday Night Football last week and the general opinion seems to be that the sky is falling in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers were already home field goal underdogs against the Chiefs on the early line last week, but their loss to the Rams has pushed this line to 3.5, which is significant, given that 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, including 1 in 6 games by exactly a field goal.

That seems to be an overreaction, as the Buccaneers were in a terrible spot last week and still were competitive with a Rams team that is a borderline Super Bowl contender. The Buccaneers were in a look ahead spot ahead of this huge game against the Chiefs and were also an east coast team playing a west coast team at night, which is a very tough spot. I expect much better focus and effort this week from a Buccaneers team that is still one of the top teams in the league.

The Buccaneers’ defense hasn’t been quite as good since losing Vita Vea for the season and they’ll also be without starting cornerback Jamel Dean for the first time this season this week, but they’re still one of the best defenses in the league, while their offense has improved since getting Chris Godwin (4 games missed to injury) and Antonio Brown (8 games missed to suspended) into the mix. Overall, they still rank first in the NFL in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at +5.13%, with three of their four losses coming to fellow top-3 ranked teams (Saints x2 and Rams), and they rank 3rd in my roster rankings as well.

The Buccaneers could be without left tackle Donovan Smith this week due to injury, but that isn’t a big deal because they can slide talented rookie right tackle Tristan Wirfs to the left side and because they are likely getting back guard Ali Marpet from a 3-game absence and he’s a higher caliber offensive lineman. Tom Brady isn’t playing quite as well as he did in his prime, but he’s playing well enough and has enough talent around him for this to be a high level team. They shouldn’t be 3.5-point home underdogs against anyone, even against another high level team like the Chiefs.

Speaking of Brady, I would especially expect a much better performance from him this week, as this is the kind of spot where he has always played his best historically. His record off of a loss is famous at this point, but his ATS record off of a loss is even more incredible at 45-22 ATS and that becomes 21-3 ATS if you look only at instances where Brady is an underdog or favorite of fewer than 3 points, which is the case here. Brady is also a ridiculous 39-11 ATS against teams with a better record than his, including 28-9 ATS in week 5 or later (when records are more likely to be indicative of talent level). 

Those numbers were primarily accumulated in New England with Bill Belichick and Brady is now in his age 43 season, but it stands to reason that Brady still will be at his best when his back is up against the wall (he’s 3-0 ATS off a loss this season and 1-0 ATS against a team with a better record), even if that best isn’t quite what it was in his prime. I would expect this to be a close game either way, even if the Buccaneers can’t pull the upset, so I love getting +3.5. I locked this at +3.5 earlier this week, but that number is still available as the sharps haven’t pounded this game like I expected they would, so you can still get this number if you missed it. This is my Pick of the Week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33 Kansas City Chiefs 31 Upset Pick +160

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week