New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (1-2) at Detroit Lions (1-2)

The Saints are off to one of the most disappointing starts in the league, as this expected Super Bowl contender has started just 1-2, including back-to-back losses as favorites against the Raiders and Packers. The Saints’ early season schedule has been tough and they’ve historically struggled early in the season (4-17-1 ATS in weeks 1-2 since 2010, as compared to 85-54-2 ATS in week 3-17), but I’m not so sure they’re about to turn things around. 

With quarterback Drew Brees going into his age 41 season, his early season struggles could easily be a sign of more to come. On top of that, while top wide receiver Michael Thomas was expected back this week, not only is he not returning, but the Saints’ injury situation is getting even worse, with tight end Jared Cook joining Thomas on the sidelines from the offense and cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins joining edge defender Marcus Davenport, who has been out all season, on the sidelines from the defense.

The Lions, meanwhile, are going in the other direction injury wise. They got top wide receiver Kenny Golladay and starting offensive lineman Halapoulivaati Vaitai back last week and this week they are expected to get back cornerback Desmond Trufant, who was expected to be their top cornerback before he got hurt. The Lions’ weren’t overly impressive in picking up their first win of the season in Arizona last week, as they needed to win the turnover margin by 3 to even win that game by 3, something they won’t be able to rely on every week, and they’ve been very underwhelming so far to start the season, ranking 2nd to last in first down rate differential at -8.37%, only ahead of the Jets, but this team is much more talented than that suggests, as their talent level is in line with a middling team when they’re relatively healthy like they are now. 

I have the Lions 17th in my roster rankings, just a few spots behind the 10th ranked Saints, so we’re getting decent line value with the Lions, who are getting a full field goal at home. This is a small bet because it certainly wouldn’t surprise me if the Saints were able to exceed expectations and start their annual mid-season run, while the Lions really haven’t played well yet this season, but the Lions have a good chance to keep this close or even to pull the straight up upset, given the differing injury situations these two teams are in.

New Orleans Saints 31 Detroit Lions 30

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: Medium

Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-2)

Coming into the year, I liked the Cowboys’ chances of being a contender, after tough luck in close games in 2019 (0-5 in games decided by 7 points or fewer after going 8-2 in those type of games with roughly the same team in 2018) led to the Cowboys missing the playoffs at 8-8, despite finishing 6th in the league in point differential at +113 and 4th in first down rate differential at +4.28%.

The Cowboys are just 1-2, but they’ve played better than that suggests, with their two losses coming on the road in close games against tough opponents in the Seahawks and Rams. Their one win was an improbable comeback over the Falcons, in which they needed to recover an onside kick to win, but there were some fluky things that led to the Cowboys needing to come back in the first place, like the Cowboys losing a trio of fumbles early. The Cowboys won the first down rate battle in that game by 10.80% and overall rank 7th in the league on the season at +4.38%, very much in line with how they played last season. That’s a good sign for their chances going forward.

What’s even more impressive is that the Cowboys have done this while not being close to full strength, missing their dominant offensive tackle duo of Tyron Smith and La’El Collins, pass catching tight end Blake Jarwin, every down linebacker Leighton Vander Esch and his potential replacement Sean Lee, and starting cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie and Anthony Brown. They’re not the only team in the league to have significant injuries right now, but they’ve played well in spite of them, primarily due to quarterback Dak Prescott seemingly being on his way to his best season yet. If they can get healthy soon, they could easily be a dangerous team.

The Cowboys do get one key player back from injury this week in left tackle Tyron Smith, who is set to return from a 2-game absence. Unfortunately, the Cowboys have a tough matchup for Smith’s first game back, as even with Smith in the lineup, I have the Browns slightly higher in my roster rankings. The Browns’ season has started with a blowout loss to a dominant Ravens team and easy wins against the Bengals and Redskins (The Bengals needed to go 5 for 5 on 4th down just to cut the lead to 5 points at the last second). They haven’t been overly impressive, but they’re getting healthier and have been particularly impressive on the offensive line, where all five starters have played at a high level, a great sign, given that their offensive line was the primary reason for their disappointing 2019 season.

The Browns enter this game 10th in my roster rankings, a couple spots ahead of the Cowboys, who don’t have full homefield advantage either, so this 4.5-point line is too high. I wouldn’t go crazy betting on the Browns because I still like the Cowboys’ chances long-term if they can get healthier, but this should be a close game, with the most likely results being either team winning by exactly a field goal, two outcomes that would both result in a Browns cover.

Dallas Cowboys 30 Cleveland Browns 27

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +4.5

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)

The Buccaneers lost week one in New Orleans, but that was primarily due to the Buccaneers having a -3 turnover margin, which is not a predictable week-to-week metric. The Buccaneers actually won the first down rate battle by 8.18% in that game and they have gone on to defeat the Panthers and Broncos by a combined 32 points in the two weeks since. Overall, the Buccaneers rank 2nd in the NFL with a +6.31% first down rate differential. 

The Buccaneers haven’t had the toughest schedule, but I had high expectations for them coming into the season and, if anything I’ve been more impressed with them because of how they’ve achieved that 2nd ranked first down rate differential. While their offense has been nothing to write home about, ranking 21st in first down rate at 37.43%, their defense has led the league with a 31.12% first down rate allowed. 

Their offense figures to get better as the season goes on, given they have a lot of new parts to integrate, so it’s great to see their defense pick up right where they left off down the stretch last season, when they had the 4th lowest first down rate allowed in the league during the final 8 weeks of the season, in large part due to the development of their young secondary, which had previously struggled mightily. This might not be the best defense in the league all season, or even top-5, but their expected offensive improvement should more than offset that and it’s clear that this is a balanced team that can win a lot of different kinds of games.

This week, the Buccaneers host a banged up Chargers team, which is missing starting cornerback Chris Harris, starting edge defender Melvin Ingram, starting wide receiver Mike Williams, and the right side of their offensive line, guard Trai Turner and right tackle Bryan Bulaga, in addition to stud safety Derwin James, who has been out since training camp. The Buccaneers aren’t at full strength either with Chris Godwin out, but they still have Mike Evans and other weapons and they haven’t had their receiving corps at full strength really all season, so their injury situation isn’t really comparable to the Chargers’ situation, which primarily involves new injuries as of the past week. 

I have the Buccaneers 10 points better than the Chargers in their current injury situation, as they are one of the top teams in the league facing off against a team that is in the bottom third without their key absences. Given that, we’re getting a lot of value with the Buccaneers as mere 6.5-point home favorites. This is a team that could easily start to go on a big run and they should be able to win this game by at least a touchdown, if not possibly a lot more. This is my Pick of the Week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Los Angeles Chargers 10

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (2-1) at Chicago Bears (3-0)

The Colts surprisingly lost week one in Jacksonville, but that was a close game that swung on the Colts -2 turnover margin, which is not a predictable metric on a week-to-week basis. In two games since, the Colts have dominated the Vikings and Jets, winning by a combined 46 points, and now lead the league in first down rate differential (+8.81%), and DVOA as well. They haven’t faced a tough schedule, but I had them as a top-5 team entering the season and I don’t see any reason to change that, especially if they continue to avoid the major injuries that have plagued much of the league. The Colts aren’t fully 100%, but they still rank 2nd overall in my roster rankings right now.

The Bears have also gotten off to a good start at 3-0, but they haven’t won any of their games convincingly, with their biggest margin of victory being 4 points and two of their three wins coming in improbable last second comebacks. They actually have a negative first down rate differential at -0.49%%, despite their record, and they rank middle of the pack in my roster rankings as well, even without major injuries. I have this line calculated at Indianapolis -4.5, so I like the value we’re getting with them at -2.5 a lot, as it crosses the key number of three and the lesser key number of 4. The Colts should win this game with relative ease, especially with the Bears lacking normal homefield advantage, so they’re a good bet if you can get them as favorites of less than a field goal.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -2.5

Confidence: High

Denver Broncos at New York Jets: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (0-3) at New York Jets (0-3)

This is a tough one, because there are really no good arguments for either side. Both teams are 0-3 and deservedly so and, with the line being even, this is a straight win/loss pick ‘em. The Broncos came into the season with a lot of potential, but they’ve been derailed by injuries, losing starting quarterback Drew Lock, top wide receiver Courtland Sutton, starting right tackle Elijah Wilkinson, top defensive lineman Jurrell Casey, stud edge defender Von Miller, starting linebacker Mark Barron, and cornerback AJ Bouye already in this young season. Backup quarterback Jeff Driskel proved to be in over his head and has been pulled for third string quarterback Brett Rypien, a 2019 undrafted free agent who will make his first start in this game.

The Jets, meanwhile, came into the season with much less potential. Already an underwhelming team, the Jets lost linebacker CJ Mosley to an opt-out and traded Jamal Adams to the Seahawks before the season, stripping them of their top-2 defensive players before the year even began. Things have gotten even worse though, primarily due to injuries. The Jets haven’t quite had the Broncos’ injury issues, but they played last week without their top-3 wide receivers and their starting running back, leaving them devoid of skill position talent on offense. Quarterback Sam Darnold also hasn’t progressed in his third year in the league, so this offense has been tremendously stagnant, with a 29.14% first down rate differential that is not only dead last in the league, but 9.88% less than league average.

The Broncos have been the better team this season, ranking 22nd in first down rate differential (-2.24%), as compared to dead last 32nd (-10.65%) for the Jets, but I don’t really want to take an unproven third string quarterback on a short week on the road, even if it is against a team like the Jets in a year where homefield advantage is diminished. My roster rankings, which takes into account the Broncos’ quarterback situation, has the Broncos 31st and the Jets 32nd, giving the Broncos just a half point edge. Ultimately, this decision is going to come down to injuries. I’m taking the Jets for a no confidence pick, but they could be without talented rookie left tackle Mekhi Becton and/or could get wide receiver Jamison Crowder back to give them some much needed skill position talent. Depending on the injury report, I may change this to a no confidence pick the other way.

New York Jets 16 Denver Broncos 14

Pick against the spread: NY Jets PK

Confidence: None

2020 Week 3 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

NYG +3.5 vs. SF

High Confidence Picks

TB -5 @ DEN

CLE -7 vs. WAS

Medium Confidence Picks

TEN -2.5 @ MIN

NO -3 vs. GB

CHI +3 @ ATL

Low Confidence Picks

BAL -3.5 vs. KC

IND -12 vs. NYJ

NE -6 vs. LV

PIT -4 vs. HOU

SEA -5 vs. DAL

CIN +4.5 @ PHI

DET +5 @ ARZ

JAX -3 vs. MIA

No Confidence Picks

LAR +2 @ BUF

LAC -6.5 vs. CAR

Upset Picks

CHI +115 @ ATL

NYG +155 vs. SF

Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Chargers: 2020 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (0-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-1)

This is the toughest game of the week for me, as I have the line calculated right at 6.5, which is where it is on the board, and there aren’t any situational edges on either side. The Panthers are one of the worst teams in the league without their top offensive player Chrisitan McCaffrey and their top defensive lineman Kawaan Short, but the Chargers have a raw, unproven quarterback under center in Justin Herbert and, while he showed some success against the Chiefs last week after regular starter Tyrod Taylor was a late scratch with a medical issue, I wonder how much he benefited from the Chiefs game planning for a different kind of quarterback all week. 

Herbert will have a full week with the first team in practice this week, which he didn’t have last week, but the Panthers also won’t be caught off guard by him and at least have some professional tape of him in this offense. Ultimately, I’m taking the Chargers since the most likely outcome is then winning by a touchdown, but the Panthers could easily keep it closer and they have the kind of offense, even without McCaffrey, that is very capable of a backdoor garbage cover late in the game.

Los Angeles Chargers 24 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -6.5

Confidence: None

Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles: 2020 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-2)

The Eagles’ season has gotten off to a terrible start, as not only are they 0-2, but they’re also tied with the Jets with the 2nd lowest first down rate differential in the league at -28. The Eagles were injury ravaged in week 1, missing right tackle Lane Johnson and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, among others, but they still lost by double digits to a Washington team that is one of the worst in the league and then they got blown out at home by the Rams in week 2, even though Johnson and Hargrave had returned. Part of the problem has been their league worst -5 turnover margin, which is a metric that tends to be inconsistent week-to-week, but they also rank 26th in first down rate differential at -5.58%, so their issues go far beyond the turnover margin.

The Eagles should be better going forward, if only because Carson Wentz is unlikely to be one of the worst quarterbacks in the league all season, but even if he bounces back, this team has real weaknesses on both sides of the ball, as Wentz’s growing cap hit has made it tougher to them to keep talent at positions like linebacker, safety, and running back, while their offensive line is missing both starting guards due to injury and their receiving corps is banged up as well.

The Eagles face another 0-2 team this week, a less surprising 0-2 team as the Bengals are coming off a season in which they finished 2-14 and had the worst record in the league. The Bengals were better than that record suggested, with 8 of their losses coming by 8 points or fewer in 2019, primarily due to a defense that is better than you’d think, and their offense should be better this season with #1 overall pick Joe Burrow taking over under center and getting back top wide receiver AJ Green and left tackle Jonah Williams, who both missed all of 2019 with injury, but the Bengals are still unlikely to win many games and their defense has struggled early in the season, likely in large part due to the continued absence of defensive tackle Geno Atkins.

If the Eagles play like they have, the Bengals could steal this one in Philadelphia, especially with the Eagles having limited homefield advantage, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if the Eagles bounced back this week, with Carson Wentz likely to work through his issues at some point. I have this line calculated at Philadelphia -3, so we’re getting line value with the Bengals at +4.5, but not enough for them to be worth betting against a desperate Eagles team that is used to making playoff appearances.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +4.5

Confidence: Low

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons: 2020 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (2-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-2)

I wasn’t high on the Bears coming into the season because their defense wasn’t what it once was and their offense didn’t appear to be noticeably approved. It’s early and they’ve had a relatively easy schedule, but their quarterback play and offensive line play have both been better than expected and, perhaps most importantly, they’re one of the few teams in the league that haven’t had significant injury problems yet and they enter this game as close to full strength as anyone. As a result of that, they have shot up to 14th in my roster rankings.

That’s a few spots higher than the Falcons, who are dealing with injuries to several players, as wide receiver Julio Jones, right tackle Kaleb McGary, linebacker Foyesade Oluokun, and edge defenders Dante Fowler and Takkarist McKinley are all highly questionable after either barely practicing or not practicing this week. It’s tough to make a pick without knowing the status of all of those players, but I’m tentatively on the Bears and may even wager on them depending on how many Falcons are out.

Update: The injury report is not good for the Falcons, with Jones, McGary, Oluokun, and McKinley all out, along with cornerback AJ Terrell, who is on the COVID list. Unfortunately, this line moved down to 2.5 to compensate. An Atlanta win by a field goal at home is still a likely possibility, so I don’t love this play against the spread, but I think the Bears have a slightly better chance of winning this game overall than the Falcons (my calculated line is Chicago -1.5), so I like the value getting them +115 to win straight up.

Final Update: Some +3s have started showing up again, with higher vig. Field goal games are so common that I think it’s worth betting that line even if you have to pay a higher vig.

Chicago Bears 26 Atlanta Falcons 24 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Chicago +3

Confidence: Medium

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts: 2020 Week 3 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (0-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1)

The Colts surprisingly lost week 1 in Jacksonville, but that game largely swung on a -2 turnover margin by the Colts, which tends to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, and the Colts bounced back in a big way with a 28-11 home victory over the Vikings last week. In total, the Colts have the 5th highest first down rate differential in the league at +5.33%. In early, but that’s in line with where I had them before the season. 

The Colts were just a middling team last season, but they get an upgrade at quarterback in Philip Rivers, they get their #1 wide receiver back from an injury riddled season, and they add a much needed difference maker on defense in DeForest Buckner. They haven’t been immune to the injury bug, most notably losing safety Malik Hooker for the season with a torn achilles, but they still rank 8th in my roster rankings overall and are healthier than most of the league

The Colts also have a very easy matchup this week, hosting a Jets team that entered the year as one of the worst teams in the league and that has only gotten worse due to injuries. The Jets lost their two best defensive players before the season even started, with linebacker CJ Mosley opting out and safety Jamal Adams getting traded to the Seahawks, and they have since lost their top-3 wide receivers (Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, Denzel Mims), their starting running back Le’Veon Bell, and their starting right tackle George Fant due to injuries. Through two weeks, they rank dead last in first down rate differential at -8.85% and they’re arguably the worst team in the league overall in their current state.

Unfortunately, we’ve lost all line value with the Colts, as this line has shifted from Indianapolis -7 on the early line last week to -12 this week. The Colts should still be the right side because this should be a blowout, but my calculated line of -13.5 isn’t much higher than this actual line, so there isn’t enough here for the Colts to be worth betting. The Colts are my pick, but for pick ‘em purposes only.

Indianapolis Colts 27 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -12

Confidence: Low