Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Steelers

Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)

I thought the Steelers were a little overrated coming into the season and, though they did win week one in Buffalo in upset fashion week one, that might have just made them more overrated, as they could not continue that into week two, following up that win over the Bills with an upset loss at home to the Raiders. The Steelers’ offense has continued to struggle mightily, not moving the ball consistently in either game, which is a problem because offensive performance is more predictive than defensive performance and because their once dominant defense is not as talented as it once was due to off-season departures and injuries. 

The Steelers will get Joe Haden and Devin Bush back this week, but remain without Stephon Tuitt and will add Alex Highsmith and Tyson Alualu to their list of injured defensive players, while TJ Watt could be less than his dominant self playing through a significant groin injury. Meanwhile, their offense could struggle even more than normal with Ben Roethlisberger playing through a chest injury that could easily limit him as a passer and wide receiver Diontae Johnson out.

This line has shifted from Pittsburgh -7 on the early line last week to Pittsburgh -3 this week and normally I like to go against significant week-to-week overreactions, but this line was always too high at 7 and sharps are still betting the Bengals heavily at three. I would agree with the sharps this week, not just because the Steelers are overrated, but because the Bengals are a little underrated. I’m not sure if they will be a playoff qualifier, but Joe Burrow has looked good in his return from injury and he’s supported by a much improved receiving corps, offensive line, and defensive unit.

The Bengals beat Minnesota week one and the Vikings, despite losing two close games on the road to open their season, are better than people think because of their improved defense, while the Bengals loss in Chicago last week was mostly the result of their -3 turnover margin, as they averaged 1.22 yards per play more than the Bears in an eventual 3-point loss. Yards per play differential is much more predictive than turnover margin, which bodes well for the Bengals going forward. I actually have the Bengals a few points better than the banged up Steelers, so we’re getting significant line value with the Bengals as underdogs of a field goal on the road. I like their chances of pulling the outright upset and even if they don’t, we have a field goal to work with. This is worth a big play even if we’re not getting as much line value as we were getting a week ago.

Cincinnati Bengals 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 16 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +3

Confidence: High

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 3 NFL Picks, Falcons, Giants, NFL Picks

Atlanta Falcons (0-2) at New York Giants (0-2)

This line favors the Giants by a field goal at home, suggesting these two teams are about even, but I think this line is off and the Giants are the better team. Their biggest weakness is their offensive line, which might be the worst in the league, but the Falcons are among the least equipped teams to take advantage of that, with one of the worst pass rushes in the league, as part of a terrible overall defense. If the Giants can control the line of scrimmage at least somewhat, they should be able to move the ball with ease in this game, with Daniel Jones supported by an improved skill position group from a year ago. 

Jones is an underrated quarterback because he played a brutal schedule last season (nine matchups against top-10 defenses in his first ten games), before suffering a hamstring injury that limited him severely and would have kept many quarterbacks out for several weeks. Jones then started this season with back-to-back tough defenses in the Broncos and Washington, but now he gets to face one of the worst defenses in the league and should be able to have a strong game, coming off one of the best games of his career in a near loss against Washington’s defense.

The Giants also have a solid defense and are overall a much more well rounded team than the Falcons, who don’t do anything particularly well, with even their once solid passing game taking a hit this year with Julio Jones gone and Matt Ryan seemingly on the decline at least a little bit. Add in that the Giants have extra rest off of Thursday Night Football and there is enough here to bet on them confidently as long as this line doesn’t exceed a field goal.

New York Giants 27 Atlanta Falcons 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -3

Confidence: Medium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 3 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, NFL Picks, Rams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0) at Los Angeles Rams (2-0)

Both of these teams are 2-0 and this is being billed as a potential NFC Championship matchup, but I think the Buccaneers have a much better chance of making that game and are the much better team. While the Buccaneers are a dominant team with the league’s top roster and a 10-game winning streak (with a margin of victory of 11.2 points per game, even including four playoff games), the Rams are a little overrated. 

The Rams obviously improved their offense this off-season by adding Matt Stafford, but I don’t expect the Rams’ defense to have quite as good of a season as a year ago, which usually gets left out of the discussion with the Rams, in favor of focusing on how much better their offense is. I thought they were overrated coming into the season and I haven’t seen anything to change my mind yet. The Rams did win easily against the Bears week one, but the Bears are one of the worst teams in the league and that game could have been a lot closer if not for key mistakes by the Bears, including not touching a receiver down, a blown coverage, and a goal line interception and then the Rams followed that win up by barely beating a banged up Colts team. 

The Buccaneers are favored by 1.5 points in this matchup in Los Angeles, but they should be favored by at least a field goal, given that there is still a significant gap between these two teams. The fact that this line is lower than a field goal is relevant for a couple reasons, given how automatic of a bet Tom Brady’s teams have been throughout his career in games where he isn’t a significant favorite, as Brady is 57-26 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of less than 2.5. 

That’s a consistent trend that has held up for decades as Brady has consistently brought his best for big games and his teams have usually followed suit (including a 5-1 ATS record with the Buccaneers last season). It’s possible the Buccaneers are a little distracted by their big matchup with the Patriots next week, but this game is more important in the long run because of playoff seeding implications, so I would expect the Buccaneers to be fully focused this week, even with the Patriots on deck. In a game they basically just need to win to cover, they should be a good bet this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Los Angeles Rams 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -1.5

Confidence: High

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 3 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Patriots, Saints

New Orleans Saints (1-1) at New England Patriots (1-1)

The Patriots have split their first two games, but they would likely be 2-0 if they could have held onto one of two fumbles in their 1-point loss to the Dolphins. Fumbles are one of the least predictive metrics week-to-week and, in more predictive metrics, the Patriots held the clear edge over the Dolphins, despite the final score, as they had the higher first down rate (33.33% vs. 30.77%) and yards per play (5.61 vs. 4.98). 

Their significant win over the Jets last week was to be expected, but it was good to see the Patriots take care of business in a game in which the Jets never really had a shot. I had the Patriots as one of my underrated teams going into the season because of how much talent they added this off-season and, despite their .500 record, I haven’t seen anything to change my mind on them thus far. If anything, their week one loss may make them even more underrated, as they likely would be getting a lot more hype at 2-0.

The Saints, meanwhile, have been the least predictable team in the league thus far, winning 38-3 as 3.5-point home underdogs against the Packers and losing 26-7 as 3.5-point road favorites against the Panthers. It’s likely that the Saints brought their best game at the same time the Packers were flat and then followed that up by being flat off of a big upset win the following week in Carolina, but it’s hard to pin down how good this team is. 

They’re clearly not as good as last season after several key off-season departures and they are missing key players due to injury and suspension, including top wide receiver Michael Thomas, talented kicker Will Lutz, top interior defender David Onyemata, talented center Erik McCoy, starting linebacker Kwon Alexander, and starting defensive end Marcus Davenport. Their defense has continued playing at a high level, but their offense actually hasn’t looked good in either game and ranks only behind the Dolphins in terms of first down rate. 

My roster rankings still have the Saints right about average, but I have the Patriots as several points above average, so this line, which favors the Patriots by a field goal at home and suggests these two teams are about even, is off by a few points. In a normal week, this would be a candidate for Pick of the Week, given how much line value we’re getting with New England, but the possibility that the Patriots are caught looking forward to their matchup with Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers next week limits this to a smaller bet for me. Even still, there is enough line value for the Patriots to be worth betting as 3-point favorites.

New England Patriots 26 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: New England -3

Confidence: Medium

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bears, Browns, NFL Picks

Chicago Bears (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)

The Browns are just 1-1, but I’ve been very impressed with them thus far this season. Their loss came in Kansas City against the Chiefs and they easily could have won, suggesting they probably would have beaten just about anyone else, anywhere else week one. In that loss, the Browns outperformed the Chiefs in more predictive metrics like first down rate (42.11% vs. 34.43%) and yards per play (8.16 vs. 6.51), primarily losing the game because they lost the turnover margin, which is much less predictive. 

The Browns followed up that narrow loss to the Chiefs with a 10-point win over the Texans, which doesn’t sound that impressive, but the Browns once again performed better in more predictive metrics than margin of victory, winning the first down rate battle by 11.26% and the yards per play battle by 1.02. The Browns’ offense came into the season with as much upside as any team in the league and they have lived up to it, leading the league in first down rate through two weeks, despite dealing with some injuries, while their revamped defensive unit has been a solid complementary unit. 

The Browns should be considered a legitimate contender, but are a bit underrated because their record doesn’t tell the whole story and the general public doesn’t realize this is a significantly improved team from a year ago. The Bears, meanwhile, were thoroughly outplayed in Los Angeles week 1 against a good, but probably overrated Rams team and then followed that up with a 3-point loss against the Bengals in a game in which they won the turnover battle by 3, but were outgained by 1.22 yards per play, a much more predictive metric. 

Their offense could get a spark this week with rookie quarterback Justin Fields being forced into action with veteran Andy Dalton injured, but that’s far from a guarantee in his first career start and this offense has significant problems beyond the quarterback position, while their once dominant defense is middling at best thanks to several off-seasons of key departures and injuries to key players like Danny Trevathan and Eddie Goldman, who will once again be out this week. 

I thought the Bears were a significantly below average team coming into the season and nothing has happened to change my mind on that, so a talented team like the Browns shouldn’t have any problem against them. This line is mispriced with the Browns only favored by 7 (my calculated line is Cleveland -12), so let’s take advantage with a big wager. This line is creeping up to 7.5 in some places, which would still be worth a bet, but not as big of a bet, given how important a number 7 is for betting purposes.

Cleveland Browns 27 Chicago Bears 14

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 3 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Panthers, Texans

Carolina Panthers (2-0) at Houston Texans (1-1)

Both of these teams are unappealing to bet this week. The Panthers are 2-0, but they beat a terrible Jets team by 5 and then got a Saints team that was predictably flat after an emotional week one victory and that was also missing a significant amount of their coaching staff. Their defense could continue being an above average unit, but I still don’t trust their quarterback or offensive line and they’re not the kind of team that should be favorites of more than a touchdown on the road against anyone.

On the other hand, the Texans have one of the worst rosters in the league and now, one of their few bright spots, quarterback Tyrod Taylor, is injured and will be replaced by raw rookie Davis Mills, who looked lost in relief of Taylor last week against the Browns, entering a tied game and losing by 10 in a game in which the Texans lost the first down rate battle by 11.26%. The Texans beat the Jaguars week one, but the Jaguars are probably one of the worst five teams in the league and that was with Taylor. 

Given the rest of this roster and how raw Mills is, this team reminds me of the winless 2017 Browns, who failed to cover in all but four games while being quarterbacked by Deshone Kizer and Kevin Hogan. For future betting purposes, I hope the Panthers are able to cover and win big against a terrible Texans team, so they remain overrated for future bets, but my numbers actually have the Texans as the right side at +9, even if barely. If this line was at -7.5 where it was earlier this week, I would take the Panthers. That’s how close this is for me and how little I have confidence in either side.

Carolina Panthers 20 Houston Texans 12

Pick against the spread: Houston +9

Confidence: None

2021 Week 2 NFL Picks

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 2 NFL Picks, NFL Picks

Pick of the Week

NE -6 @ NYJ

High Confidence Picks

GB -11.5 vs. DET

Medium Confidence Picks

ARZ -3.5 vs. MIN

IND +3.5 vs. LAR

TB -12.5 vs. ATL

CIN +2.5 @ CHI

Low Confidence Picks

NYG +3.5 @ WAS

LV +6.5 @ PIT

JAX +6 vs. DEN

DAL +3.5 @ LAC

CAR +3.5 vs. NO

BAL +4 vs. KC

CLE -12.5 vs. HOU

SEA -6.5 vs. TEN

No Confidence Picks

BUF -3.5 @ MIA

PHI +3 vs. SF

Upset Pick

CIN @ CHI +120

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 2 NFL Picks, Lions, NFL Picks, Packers

Detroit Lions (0-1) at Green Bay Packers (0-1)

The Packers had the most disappointing week one performance in the league, losing 38-3 as 3.5-point favorites against the Saints. The Packers aren’t as good as a year ago, especially with key players like David Bakhtiari and Za’Darius Smith out of the lineup, but the Saints were also banged up, missing key players like Michael Thomas, David Onyemata, and Will Lutz, after an off-season where they lost other key players, and they were playing a home game on a neutral field and not being home for an extended period of time because of Hurricane Ida.

I’m not sure what to make of the Packers’ huge loss last week, but I don’t expect them to be anywhere near that bad the rest of the season, even if they aren’t as good as they were a year ago, and they’ve also typically bounced back well after a loss, as they are 39-21 ATS after a loss with Aaron Rodgers under center. Memorably, the Packers lost in blowout fashion in Tampa Bay last year, before bouncing back in a big way against a significantly interior Texans team the following week.

The Packers should be able to do a similar thing this time, especially since they’ll be at home, where they are 44-22 ATS in games Aaron Rodgers starts and finishes with fans in attendance, and facing an even worse team in the Detroit Lions. The Lions somehow came back from down 28 to almost win against the 49ers last week, but they needed a pair of two point conversions, an onside kick recovery, a takeaway, and for the banged up 49ers to more or less take their foot off the gas on defense with a big lead. 

The Lions are still one of the worst teams in the league and I don’t expect the Packers to take their foot off the gas, needing to make a statement after an embarrassing loss. My calculated line is Green Bay -14, even before taking into account their incredible homefield advantage and how well they typically bounce back from a loss, so I’m pretty confident even giving 11.5 points with the Packers. This one is unlikely to be close.

Green Bay Packers 34 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -11.5

Confidence: High

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins, NFL Picks

Buffalo Bills (0-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-0)

It was tough to know what to make of the Bills/Steelers game, but my takeaway was more than the Bills were worse than expected more than the Steelers were better than expected. Everything went perfectly for the Bills’ offense last season and even an elite defense like the Steelers would not have been a huge challenge for them, but that was not the case in the opener and that could continue for most of the season. That’s not to say they won’t have a good offense, but it’s hard to see them seriously challenging in the AFC if they don’t get consistently high level play from their offensive unit.

If they can bounce back from week one and perform even close to last year’s level of play, they should be able to win relatively easily in Miami, against a Dolphins team that remains a little overrated, winning week one in New England in a game they easily could have lost if not for fumbles, which are the least predictive metric in the league week-to-week. When looking at more predictive metrics, the Dolphins fared worse in both first down rate (33.33% vs. 30.77%) and yards per play (5.61 vs. 4.98).

The Dolphins won 10 games a year ago, but they faced a very easy schedule and they benefited from an unsustainably high turnover margin (+11), opponent’s field goal percentage (3rd lowest at 73.91%) and 3rd/4th down conversion rate allowed (33.02%), actually lower than the 34.07% conversion rate they allowed on 1st/2nd down (4th highest in the NFL). They added Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller to improve their receiving corps this off-season, but they will likely get worse quarterback play from a full season of Tua Tagovailoa than last year when Ryan Fitzpatrick played well when given the opportunity to play and Tagovailoa did not fare well as a passer week one without Will Fuller, who now looks out indefinitely. It’s hard to be confident in the Bills at all, but I could see them bouncing back in a big way this week and don’t mind giving the 3.5 for pick ‘em purposes.

Buffalo Bills 24 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -3.5

Confidence: None

Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 2 NFL Picks, Broncos, Jaguars, NFL Picks

Denver Broncos (1-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)

This line moved significantly from favoring the Broncos by 3 on the early line last week to now by 6 this week, as a result of the Jaguars losing convincingly in Houston and the Broncos winning convincingly in New York against the Giants. I wasn’t that surprised by either result, as I thought the Broncos could be playoff contenders if they could get capable quarterback play from Teddy Bridgewater, which they seem likely to get, while the Jaguars didn’t do enough to upgrade their supporting cast around rookie Trevor Lawrence. 

However, now with this line shooting up to 6, we’ve lost all line value with the Broncos and are now actually getting line value with the hosts, who I have calculated as 4-point underdogs. This seems like a runaway line that the odds makers can boost higher than it should be because they know the public will still bet on the road favorite, which they have, as the Broncos are one of the most bet sides in the league this week. I am not confident in the Jaguars, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes, as a close game wouldn’t surprise me.

Denver Broncos 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +6

Confidence: Low