Year: 2014

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Broncos, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (6-4) at Denver Broncos (7-3)

The Broncos suffered a shocking loss in St. Louis last Sunday, losing 22-7 as 10 point road favorites. However, that was a very fluky loss and the Broncos played a lot better than the final score suggested. The Broncos had more first downs (21 and 16) and an equal amount of offensive touchdowns (1), as the Rams were overly reliant on a +2 turnover margin. The Broncos moved the chains at a 68.75% rate, as opposed to 60.71% for the Rams. On the season, the Broncos are still first in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 77.62% rate, as opposed to 70.09% for their opponents, a differential of 7.52%.

Despite that, we’re still getting significant line value with the Dolphins as the Dolphins are better than their 6-4 record suggests. Their +69 point differential is actual the same as Denver’s. All 6 of their wins have come by 13 points or more and two of their losses came by 4 points or less against two very solid teams (Green Bay, Detroit). They rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 74.47% rate, as opposed to 68.44% for their opponents, a differential of 6.03%. This line is way too high, especially with Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas in doubt for the Broncos this week.

On top of that, the Dolphins have a much easier game up next, as they head to New York to play the Jets, while the Broncos have to go to Kansas City for one of their toughest games of the season. The Broncos have a way bigger distraction on the horizon, which is going to make it much harder for them to cover here. Teams are 86-106 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. Conversely, teams are 40-31 ATS since 1989 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road favorites.

Combining the two, teams are 100-61 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 36-13 ATS since 2002 as road underdogs before being road favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs. Going off of that, teams are 85-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more and 54-33 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more. The Dolphins will almost definitely be favored by 4 or more next week in New York against the Jets. As long as the line is more than a touchdown, this is my Pick of the Week.

Denver Broncos 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Miami +7.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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2014 Week 11 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Last week

Against the Spread: 9-5

Straight Up: 8-6

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence: 0-1

Medium Confidence: 4-0

Low Confidence: 2-1

No Confidence: 2-3

Upset Picks: 1-1

On the season

Against the Spread: 100-60-1 (.625)

Straight Up: 106-54-1 (.663)

Pick of the Week: 7-4

High Confidence: 7-7

Medium Confidence: 39-13

Low Confidence: 23-17-1

No Confidence: 24-19

Upset Picks: 13-12

Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 12

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What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 NO 265 31 16 32 19 4 0 80.65%
2 GB 212 36 17 33 8 3 2 79.74%
3 DEN 230 37 11 49 11 6 0 77.62%
4 KC 210 27 15 42 10 2 0 77.45%
5 NE 232 32 25 40 8 4 0 77.42%
6 PIT 259 29 20 45 14 5 0 77.42%
7 IND 252 34 22 39 16 6 1 77.30%
8 CHI 224 25 10 36 20 10 0 76.62%
9 SEA 211 27 21 37 9 5 1 76.53%
10 BAL 218 28 22 35 14 6 0 76.16%
11 DAL 216 28 20 36 18 2 1 76.01%
12 MIA 222 23 25 35 16 8 0 74.47%
13 SD 195 24 17 49 9 3 0 73.74%
14 ATL 207 25 18 45 15 6 1 73.19%
15 ARZ 198 23 18 55 7 1 0 73.18%
16 WAS 207 23 18 44 20 4 0 72.78%
17 SF 200 20 23 45 12 5 0 72.13%
18 NYG 210 25 10 52 21 9 0 71.87%
19 CAR 228 22 22 54 19 3 0 71.84%
20 PHI 223 26 19 50 25 4 0 71.76%
21 CIN 191 24 23 46 14 3 0 71.43%
22 HOU 196 21 22 49 15 3 0 70.92%
23 CLE 203 23 19 58 10 8 0 70.40%
24 TB 178 20 15 43 20 5 1 70.21%
25 DET 183 19 24 46 13 4 0 69.90%
26 STL 185 18 18 50 16 4 0 69.76%
27 NYJ 190 18 19 50 18 6 0 69.10%
28 TEN 166 19 14 53 14 4 2 68.01%
29 MIN 181 16 22 54 13 4 0 67.93%
30 JAX 182 18 15 57 22 6 0 66.67%
31 BUF 169 18 25 55 14 6 2 64.71%
32 OAK 149 16 13 64 20 2 0 62.50%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 MIA 175 18 20 41 19 8 1 68.44%
2 BUF 204 19 22 54 21 3 0 69.04%
3 ARZ 190 19 15 52 20 5 0 69.44%
4 DET 186 16 15 54 14 4 1 69.66%
5 DEN 201 24 20 59 12 4 1 70.09%
6 CLE 216 21 20 56 18 6 1 70.12%
7 PHI 209 27 17 59 16 6 0 70.66%
8 BAL 191 20 18 46 15 5 1 71.28%
9 KC 196 16 21 46 8 10 0 71.38%
10 WAS 186 26 15 55 9 3 0 72.11%
11 SF 189 23 10 45 21 5 0 72.35%
12 DAL 183 23 11 44 17 6 0 72.54%
13 MIN 196 25 15 50 14 4 0 72.70%
14 NYJ 185 29 18 54 7 1 0 72.79%
15 JAX 205 26 21 48 11 5 1 72.87%
16 HOU 221 24 15 48 23 5 0 72.92%
17 NE 216 23 20 38 19 11 0 73.09%
18 SD 189 23 14 46 10 7 1 73.10%
19 SEA 194 22 17 44 14 3 1 73.22%
20 PIT 217 27 24 48 14 1 1 73.49%
21 IND 212 30 11 51 15 7 0 74.23%
22 OAK 213 27 24 47 8 4 0 74.30%
23 STL 204 23 17 43 14 4 0 74.43%
24 NYG 211 28 21 40 18 3 0 74.45%
25 ATL 222 27 25 39 18 1 0 75.00%
26 CIN 236 23 23 41 15 6 1 75.07%
27 CHI 197 29 26 29 14 4 0 75.59%
28 TB 229 28 28 38 15 1 0 75.81%
29 GB 231 24 14 34 22 11 0 75.89%
30 CAR 240 33 21 45 17 3 0 76.04%
31 TEN 238 26 21 44 12 4 0 76.52%
32 NO 210 26 19 40 10 1 1 76.87%

 

Overall

1 DEN 7.52%
2 KC 6.07%
3 MIA 6.03%
4 BAL 4.88%
5 NE 4.33%
6 PIT 3.93%
7 GB 3.85%
8 NO 3.78%
9 ARZ 3.74%
10 DAL 3.48%
11 SEA 3.31%
12 IND 3.06%
13 PHI 1.10%
14 CHI 1.03%
15 WAS 0.68%
16 SD 0.63%
17 CLE 0.29%
18 DET 0.24%
19 SF -0.22%
20 ATL -1.81%
21 HOU -2.00%
22 NYG -2.59%
23 CIN -3.64%
24 NYJ -3.69%
25 CAR -4.21%
26 BUF -4.33%
27 STL -4.67%
28 MIN -4.77%
29 TB -5.60%
30 JAX -6.20%
31 TEN -8.51%
32 OAK -11.80%

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (4-5) at Cleveland Browns (6-3)

This is a tough one because I don’t really have any significant trends for either side. The Browns are the better team and we’re probably getting some line value with them as mere 3.5 point favorites, especially with Arian Foster out. The Browns rank 15th, moving the chains at a 70.53% rate, as opposed to 69.36% for their opponents, a differential of 1.17%, while the Texans rank 24th, moving the chains at a 70.19% rate, as opposed to 73.33% for their opponents, a differential of -3.14%.

However, I’m worried about taking the Browns after they’ve had 10 days to listen to the media blow smoke in their ass after their win over Cincinnati. While they’re better than the Texans, they’re still not as good as their record so that could be very dangerous for them. The public is also on the Browns and hate taking a publicly backed side unless I have good reason as the odds makers always make money in the long run. The fact that this line is 3.5 instead of 3 also scares me as this could easily be a field goal game. I’m still taking the Browns, but I’m not confident at all.

Cleveland Browns 17 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -3.5

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (7-2) at St. Louis Rams (3-6)

The Broncos are the best team in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 78.53% rate, as opposed to 70.99% for their opponents, a differential of 7.54%. However, this line still might be too high at 10. The Rams rank 26th, moving the chains at a 70.72% rate, as opposed to 75.09% for their opponents, a differential of -4.37%. That’s not good, but they’re definitely better than the Raiders and they can give the Broncos way more of a game than the Raiders did last week. Remember, the Broncos have not played well on the road this season, losing in Seattle and New England and needing a late pick six to win by more than a touchdown in New York against the Jets. Last week was the exception, but the Raiders are a special kind of terrible this season.

Even before you take into account the Broncos’ relative road struggles, I still don’t think this line should be higher than 9. We’re not getting a ton of line value with the Rams obviously and I’m not confident in them at all, but the public is all over the Broncos (predictably so) at a very high rate. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as the odds makers always make money in the long run and I think it makes sense here, even if I’m not confident.

Denver Broncos 28 St. Louis Rams 20

Pick against the spread: St. Louis +10

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Chargers, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (0-9) at San Diego Chargers (5-4)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, this seems like a perfect spot for the Chargers to bounce back off of back-to-back big losses on the road in Denver and Miami. Despite those two losses, they are still significantly better than the Raiders, to the point where I think we’re getting some line value with them as only 10 point favorites. The Chargers still rank 17th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 75.19% rate, as opposed to 75.46% for their opponents, a differential of -0.28%. Meanwhile, the Raiders rank dead last, moving the chains at a 64.20% rate, as opposed to 75.68% for their opponents, a differential of -11.49%. No one else has a differential worse than -7.93% (Tennessee).

In addition to still ranking relatively high in rate of moving the chains differential despite those two losses, the Chargers are also still above .500 despite those two losses, which brings in another trend that support the theory that they’ll have a bounce back week. Teams with a winning record are 49-28 ATS since 1989 at home off of back-to-back road losses. On top of that, the Chargers had an embarrassing loss in their last time out, losing 38-0 and teams tend to bounce back off of those as teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed. Teams are 46-24 ATS off of a loss by 35 or more since 1989, including 4-0 ATS off of a bye.

The Raiders, meanwhile, have another tough game against the Chiefs on deck. Teams are 56-85 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more, 28-60 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 8-22 ATS before being road favorites of 7 or more (the early line is Kansas City -7.5). That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, I think it’s both.

However, there is one very powerful trend on Oakland’s side that can’t be ignored. Teams that are 0-8 or worse (the Raiders are 0-9) cover at a very high rate as road underdogs historically, going 17-3 ATS since 1989. That’s because no one wants to bet on a team that is 0-8 or worse so the odds makers know they can boost the spread as high as they want. I don’t know that that’s happening here because the Chargers are coming off of a rough stretch as well, but the public is all over the Chargers and I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense. At the end of the day, I still like the Chargers to bounce back and cover this spread, but I’m not confident at all.

San Diego Chargers 34 Oakland Raiders 23

Pick against the spread: San Diego -10

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (7-2) at Arizona Cardinals (8-1)

The Cardinals have the NFL’s best record at 8-1, but they’re also the most overrated team in the NFL I believe. They rank just 14th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.56% rate, as opposed to 70.71% for their opponents, a differential of 1.85%. They’ve been way too reliant on a +12 turnover margin this season, powered by a 68.75% rate of recovering fumbles (1st in the NFL), a 2-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, and a +3 return touchdown margin.

Meanwhile, the Lions are the better team, ranking 11th in that aspect. They move the chains at a 71.27% rate, as opposed to 68.68% for their opponents, a differential of 2.59%. On top of that, while they are getting healthier with Calvin Johnson coming back from injury to give this offense a boost, the Cardinals just lost their starting quarterback Carson Palmer for the season. Palmer was playing well before going down, completing 62.9% of his passes for an average of 7.26 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. The Cardinals have had some success in the games that backup Drew Stanton has started, but not because of him as he’s completed 49.5% of his passes for an average of 6.60 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. The Cardinals shouldn’t be favored here, even if it’s only by a point.

The Cardinals are also going into their toughest game of the season next week as they head to Seattle. Non-divisional home favorites are 86-106 ATS before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. The Lions have a tough game in New England next week, but teams are actually 96-70 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2002. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play on Detroit is because the Cardinals have been tough at home recently, going 27-11 ATS as home underdogs or favorites of less than 3 since 2007. The Lions should be the right side and win straight up.

Detroit Lions 16 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Detroit +1

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (5-4) at New York Giants (3-6)

The 49ers won last week in emotional fashion in New Orleans. You’d think that would put them in a bad spot for this week, but it historically hasn’t, as teams are 70-44 ATS off of an overtime win as underdogs of 3 or more since 1989, including 48-28 ATS when that overtime win was on the road. On top of that, the 49ers are in a good spot as they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. Teams tend to adjust to the road in their 2nd of two road games. Going off of that, road favorites are 49-33 ATS off of a road win since 2008.

The Giants, meanwhile, are in a bad spot as they have a tough game at home next week against the Cowboys. Teams are 14-29 ATS as non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional home underdogs since 2002. Going off of that, teams are 56-85 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more and the early line is currently 4. The Giants haven’t been great at home in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era anyway. In the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, since 2004, the Giants are 51-41 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 49-37 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.81 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home.

The 49ers are a West Coast team playing a 1 PM ET game on the East Coast here, which is usually a bad spot for teams, but they are 5-0 ATS in this spot since Jim Harbaugh took over in 2011. That’s a small sample size, but it’s definitely worth noting. The 49ers also have had a lot of success in the Jim Harbaugh era as favorites of 3 or more, going 25-16 ATS in that spot since 2011, including 11-5 ATS on the road. They should be the right side here as 4 point favorites.

San Francisco 49ers 27 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -4

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Tennessee Titans (2-7)

The Steelers fell flat on the road in New York last week, losing to the previously 1-win Jets 20-13. That was a surprise for a lot of people, but the Steelers have had a lot of recent struggles as non-divisional road favorites. They are 7-19 ATS since 2007 (when Mike Tomlin took over) as non-divisional road favorites, including 4-14 ATS as non-divisional road favorites of a field goal or more. They are once again in that situation here as 6 point road favorites in Tennessee. However, they are coming off of a loss, which is a different dynamic as the Steelers are 3-3 ATS as non-divisional road favorites off of a loss. It’s a small sample size, but it’s definitely worth noting. It’s also worth noting that this is their first time as non-divisional road favorites off of a loss as non-divisional road favorites in that time period.

The Titans are also really bad so this line might not be high enough. The Titans rank 31st, moving the chains at a 67.47% rate, as opposed to 75.40% for their opponents, a differential of -7.93%. Meanwhile, the Steelers rank 10th, moving the chains at a 76.49% rate, as opposed to 73.46% for their opponents, a differential of 3.03%. They also have another tough game on the horizon in Philadelphia, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are 22-46 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2012. I’m still taking the Titans out of principle, especially with the public all over Pittsburgh, but I’m not confident at all.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +6

Confidence: None

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New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Colts, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (7-2) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3)

The Patriots are usually an auto-bet as a small favorite or an underdog, as Tom Brady is 45-18 ATS in his career as an underdog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points. However, the usual conditions that accompany the Patriots being in this situation are not in play. They aren’t coming off a loss. They’re not playing a team with a better record than them. They’re also on the road, where they haven’t been that good recently, going 4-9 ATS on the road since the start of last season. Even in situations where they are underdogs or small favorites on the road, they are 3-4 ATS on the road in that time period.

On the flip side, the Colts have been great at home recently, going 14-6 ATS at home since Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano came in before the 2012 season. The Patriots are in a good spot as they will be home favorites next week, but the Colts are also in a good spot with a much easier game against the Jaguars on deck. Teams are 109-74 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs since 2008 before being non-divisional home favorites, while teams are teams are 98-79 ATS since 2008 before being double digit home favorites.

The Colts are the better team in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.84% rate, as opposed to 71.48% for their opponents, a differential of 6.36% that ranks 3rd in the NFL, while the Patriots rank 13th, moving the chains at a 75.25% rate, as opposed to 73.33% for their opponents, a differential of 1.92%. However, the Patriots have been significantly better moving the chains over the past 5 games since Rob Gronkowski has returned to form, moving the chains at an 80.43% rate, as opposed to 66.96% in their first 4 games. Their defense has been as good without Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo (72.00% vs 74.29%), but they’ve still been a much better football team of late and are at least comparable to the Colts, if not better. We’re not really getting any line value with the Colts as 3 point favorites. I’m taking the Patriots on principle as underdogs, but I’m not that confident as there’s a lot going on here.

Indianapolis Colts 24 New England Patriots 23

Pick against spread: New England +3

Confidence: Low

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