Year: 2015

Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Eagles, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (3-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)

This game was really tough because there are conflicting trends on each side. On one hand, the Dolphins are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 122-87 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 100-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 211-214 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.46 points per game, as opposed to 296-419 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.99 points per game.

On the other hand, the Eagles are big home favorites, deserved big home favorites (they rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 23rd for the Dolphins) with an easy game on deck, a home game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a game in which the early line has the as 8.5 point favorites. Teams are 79-39 ATS since 2012 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again, as good teams tend to take care of business and win big over inferior opponents when they don’t have any upcoming distractions.

I’m taking the Eagles because they’re in a better injury situation. Rookie middle linebacker Jordan Hicks is out for the season, but they should be able to survive now that Mychal Kendricks, Kiko Alonso, and DeMeco Ryans are all healthy again at middle linebacker. On the offensive side of the ball, talented left tackle Jason Peters makes his return, a big boost on the offensive line. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are in their 2nd straight game without key defensive end Cameron Wake, who is out for the season, and right tackle JaWuan James. I’m not confident at all though.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (3-5) at Denver Broncos (7-1)

The Chiefs only have three wins, while the Broncos have seven, but the Chiefs actually rank higher than the Broncos in rate of moving the chains differential; While the Broncos rank 17th, the Chiefs rank 15th. How can that be? Well, the Broncos are 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or fewer and the Chiefs are 1-3. These two teams are closer than their records. It hurt the Chiefs losing running back Jamaal Charles for the season with a torn ACL a few weeks back, but the Chiefs’ offense hasn’t really been slowed, as their passing game and offensive line have been a lot better over the past few weeks and backup running back Charcandrick West has impressed. The Chiefs are also missing defensive end Allen Bailey and left guard Ben Grubbs, but the Broncos are missing defensive end DeMarcus Ware and possibly wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders for this one.

This line might feel too low at 4.5, as it seems to for most of the public, as they’re on the Broncos, but it’s actually too high. Considering close to a quarter of games are decided by a field goal or less, this line shouldn’t be any higher than 3. The odds makers have dropped the line throughout the week (it opened at 6), despite public action, never a good sign considering the odds makers always win in the long run. It’s not enough for me to confidently take the Chiefs, especially with the Broncos having an easy game in Chicago next week (teams are 73-50 ATS before being road favorites of 6+ since 2010), but they should be the right side.

Denver Broncos 16 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +4.5

Confidence: None

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Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (6-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-4)

Despite having 2 losses, the Cardinals rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains differential battle in all 8 games. In their 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence to support an evaluation of a team. The Cardinals, despite a couple losses, have been really dominant through their first 8 games, putting up a +110 point differential, despite just a +3 turnover margin on the season.

That being said, look at who the Cardinals have been dominating: New Orleans (12th in rate of moving the chains differential), Chicago (20th), San Francisco (32nd), St. Louis (26th), Detroit (31st), Pittsburgh (18th), Baltimore (27th), and Cleveland (28th). The Seahawks are easily the toughest opponent they’ve had to date, as they rank 7th, despite a much tougher schedule that has included games against Carolina (5th), Cincinnati (3rd), and Green Bay (9th). The Seahawks are very weak on the offensive line, which has really hurt their offense, but the defense is still really good and they’ve held up well despite a tough schedule, playing close games with all 3 of those aforementioned teams.

They might not be as good as they’ve been in the past 2 years, when they won the NFC both times, but they’re still a force to be reckoned with, especially at home, where they are 21-11 ATS under Russell Wilson. They’re just 6-6 ATS in their last 12 home games, so they’re not an auto-bet at home anymore, but that’s because the odds makers have started expensively pricing the Seahawks’ home dominance into the line, not because they’ve stopped being good at home. This line is an example of that, as they’re favored by a field goal at home over a superior Arizona team. I can’t take the Seahawks this week as field goal favorites, because Arizona has been so dominant, even against a weak schedule, but I’m not confident in the Cardinals either.

Arizona Cardinals 17 Seattle Seahawks 16 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (4-4)

I love fading significant week-to-week line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be overreactions to one week of play. This line was a pick ‘em a week ago, but now favors Oakland by 3, pretty significant, considering about 23.3% of games are decided by 3 or fewer points and 15.6% by exactly a field goal. The Raiders are a solid squad, ranking 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Vikings rank higher, ranking 10th. On top of that, the Raiders are expected to be without talented center Rodney Hudson, while, on the other side, talented defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd is expected to return for the Vikings.

The Vikings have had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL (San Francisco, Detroit, San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Detroit, Chicago, St. Louis) and could be distracted with an upcoming home game against the Packers, which will be easily their biggest game to date. They are expected to be 3 point home underdogs and teams are 75-113 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, including 43-80 ATS over that same time period before being 4+ point home underdogs. The Vikings aren’t guaranteed to be home underdogs of that many, but the logic holds either way. This could be a look ahead game for the Vikings, while the Raiders face one of the worst teams in the league, the Detroit Lions, next week. It’s still tough to get excited about the Raiders, so this will be a no confidence pick, but they should be the right side. This game has a very good chance to be a field goal game though, so if the line moves to 3.5, I’d probably take the Vikings.

Oakland Raiders 20 Minnesota Vikings 16

Pick against the spread: Oakland -3

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (2-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4)

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger injured his foot last week against the Raiders and, though he’s gotten some limited practice in this week, the injury is typically a multi-week one and he’s not expected to play in this game against Cleveland, ahead of Pittsburgh’s bye next week. Landry Jones would start in his absence. That’s a big deal, as the Steelers have really struggled offensively this season without Roethlisberger. In the 3 games he’s started and finished, the Steelers have moved the chains at a 77.08% rate, as opposed to 66.48% in their other 6. Jones is better than Michael Vick, who was making starts earlier this season in Roethlisberger’s absence, but he’s still a clear downgrade under center.

It’s not just the Roethlisberger injury. The Steelers have lost running back Le’Veon Bell and left tackle Kelvin Beachum for the season with injuries, while Maurkice Pouncey has yet to play and may not return this season. That’s 4 key starters from last year’s dominant offense, which had next to no injuries. On the defensive side of the ball, James Harrison is expected to be out, which means the Steelers could also be without one of their top defensive players. The Browns have injuries too, missing cornerback Joe Haden, safety Donte Whitner, and left guard Joel Bitonio, but Haden and Whitner have missed significant time this year already and haven’t played well when on the field. The Steelers rank 18th on the season in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 28th for the Browns, but, given all of their injuries, they should not be favored by 6 points here at home.

That’s relevant for more than the obvious reason. Good teams tend to beat up inferior teams going into a bye, as home favorites of 6+ are 59-20 ATS before a bye since 2008. However, small home favorites struggle going into a bye, probably because they get caught looking forward to the bye. Home favorites of 1-5.5 are 39-63 ATS going into a bye, over the same time period. The Steelers are favored by 6, but I think the logic of the latter trend applies better here. The Steelers are in a bad spot anyway, as teams are 29-49 ATS as home favorites off of a win by 1-3 points as favorites, since 2008. The Steelers won by a field goal as home favorites against Oakland last week. Despite that, the public is all over them and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run. It makes sense here.

It also helps that the Browns are in their 2nd straight road game, following their loss in Cincinnati last week. Teams are 122-87 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 100-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 211-214 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.46 points per game, as opposed to 296-419 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.99 points per game. I’m taking the 6 points with confidence.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Cleveland Browns 19

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +6

Confidence: High

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Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (4-4) at Chicago Bears (3-5)

The Bears are 7 point underdogs here this week and are expected to be 6 point underdogs next week at home for Denver. That’s not usually a good thing, as 6+ point underdogs are 41-63 ATS before being 6+ point underdogs again, since 2012. However, the Bears do not deserve to be underdogs of this many. They rank 20th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Rams rank 26th. The Rams have arguably the worst offense in the NFL, not the kind of offense that can easily cover a touchdown spread. They’ve been better since Todd Gurley returned to the field from his injury, but the same could be said of the Bears with Jay Cutler healthy.

The Bears are moving the chains at a 74.26% rate in the 6 games that Cutler has started and finished, as opposed to 56.25% in their other 2 games. Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte are both questionable for this one, but Jeffery has already missed 4 games with injury and Forte’s replacement Jeremy Langford looked good in his absence last week. Besides, the Rams are missing defensive end Chris Long and possibly safety TJ McDonald. It’s not enough for me to be confident in the Bears at all, especially with such a tough game on deck (teams are 22-52 ATS since 2012 before being 6+ point home underdogs), but they’re my pick here.

St. Louis Rams 16 Chicago Bears 10

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7

Confidence: None

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Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (2-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-0)

The Bengals are one of three remaining 8-0 undefeated teams and rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential. The Texans are a solid team, ranking 16th in rate of moving the chains, but this line, at 11 in favor of the Bengals, is pretty fair given the talent levels of these two teams. The Texans will probably be missing outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney, but Cincinnati right tackle Andre Smith has yet to be cleared with a concussion. Assuming he’s out, those injuries would cancel out, so this line is pretty appropriate.

The Bengals are in a tough spot though, with a trip to Arizona on deck, one of the toughest games of their season and one of the few games the Bengals have in which they will be underdogs. Favorites of 10+ are 54-71 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs the following week. The Texans, meanwhile, host the Jets, a game in which the Texans could be favored, following the Jets’ home loss to the Bills on Thursday Night. Favorites are 96-166 ATS before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites since 2008. Even if the Texans are small underdogs in that one, the logic still holds. The Bengals have an upcoming distraction, while the Texans don’t. Despite that, the public is all over the Bengals. I like fading the public whenever it makes sense and I think it does here. I’m reasonably confident in the Texans.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Houston +11

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Baltimore Ravens (2-6)

The Jaguars rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential at -5.84%. However, they’ve been a lot better since the first 3 weeks of the season. In their past 5 games, they have a differential of -2.92%. What happened? Well, they got a lot healthier. Early in the season, they were missing tight end Julius Thomas, left tackle Luke Joeckel, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and right guard Brandon Linder. Since then, all of those players, except Linder who is out for the season, have returned. This is a rare instance of a team that has gotten healthier as the season has gone on, as only Linder and possibly linebacker Dan Skuta, are out. That has shown itself on the field.

The Jaguars certainly aren’t a good team, but neither are the Ravens. They ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014, but this year’s version of this team is a far cry from last year’s version. They lost wide receiver Torrey Smith, outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, and nose tackle Haloti Ngata this off-season. Breshad Perriman, Smith’s replacement, has yet to play this season, while fellow starting wide receiver Steve Smith and outside linebacker Terrell Suggs are out for the season with torn Achilles. They also lost offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak this off-season, which has really hurt their offensive line and running game. As a result, they rank 27th in rate of moving the chains differential at -4.13%. They shouldn’t be favored by 5.5 points here over the Jaguars.

The Ravens are also in a terrible spot. While the Jaguars host the Titans next week, a game in which the Jaguars are expected to be favored, the Ravens host the Rams, who are expected to be road favorites in Baltimore. Favorites are 96-166 ATS before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites since 2008. The Ravens are only 1.5 home underdogs in the early line, so it’s possible they end up being home favorites, but, either way, the logic holds. The Ravens have an upcoming distraction, while the Jaguars don’t.

It also helps that the Jaguars are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 122-87 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 100-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 211-214 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.46 points per game, as opposed to 296-419 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.99 points per game. This could easily be a Baltimore field goal win or a Jacksonville win. The Jaguars, as 5.5 point underdogs, are my Pick of the Week.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +5.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (1-7) at Green Bay Packers (6-2)

R-E-L-A-X. If Aaron Rodgers hadn’t said that last year after the Packers lost 2 of 3 games, he definitely would have said it now, after the Packers have lost 2 straight games. Both losses came on the road, against tough opponents, Carolina and Denver. The Packers still rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite those back-to-back tough road games, and should be able to bounce back at home against a vastly inferior Detroit team. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 30-12-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 39-4 straight up, with an absurd +610 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.19 points per game. They haven’t had that same kind of success on the road. Rodgers is also 23-11 ATS off of a loss in his career.

This line is pretty high at 11, but the Lions rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential. If anything, this line is too low in Lambeau. The Packers would probably be favored by two touchdowns if they had a better showing on the road over the past 2 weeks. The public is all over the Packers, which concerns me, as the public always loses money in the long run, but I don’t see this game being very close and I’m pretty confident laying the 11 points.

Green Bay Packers 34 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -11

Confidence: Medium

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Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (8-0) at Tennessee Titans (2-6)

The Panthers got a signature win last week, beating Green Bay 37-29, validating themselves as one of the top teams in the NFL. As a result, the public is all over them as 4.5 point favorites in Tennessee this week. As is usually the case when the public heavily backs one side, I’m going the other way. The public always loses money in the long run, so I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense. I think it does here, as the Panthers could be in for a huge letdown game following that big win. Teams are 61-104 ATS off of a win as home underdogs since 2010, including 15-32 ATS as favorites. Two weeks ago, the Broncos beat the previously undefeated Packers as home underdogs and proceeded to lose straight up as 6 point road favorites in Indianapolis last week. It’s hard to get up for a lesser opponent after such a huge win.

This line is also too high. The Panthers rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential and have had arguably the toughest schedule of any undefeated team (winning in Seattle, at home for Philadelphia, at home for Indianapolis, and at home for Green Bay), but a trip to Tennessee isn’t a walk in the park, despite Tennessee having just 2 wins. The Titans have moved the chains at a 73.53% rate in the 6 games started by talented rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota and their defense has allowed opponents to move the chains at a 72.20% rate. They’re better than their record.

It hurts the Titans that they’ll be without starting cornerback Jason McCourty in this one, but they’ve had one or both of their starting cornerbacks (Perrish Cox and Jason McCourty) injured in 6 of 8 games this season and have still played decently defensively. On offense, wide receiver Kendall Wright is out, but Mariota was able to light up the Saints without him last week. The Panthers’ obviously have a way better defense than the Saints, but the Titans could still have some offensive success and keep this within 4 points at home. Mariota is playing very well as a rookie, completing 65.5% of his passes for an average of 8.05 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while leading the Titans to that aforementioned offensive success.

This line is too high and has fallen from 5.5 and even 6 earlier this week, despite the public being all over Carolina, likely as a result of sharp action on Tennessee. I am going to side with the sharps over the public this week, as is usually a good idea. The Titans are not to be overlooked, especially in Tennessee, and the Panthers could easily do that after last week’s huge home win over the Packers. The Titans are also in a good spot off of an overtime win in New Orleans last week. Teams are 57-42 ATS since 1989 off of a road overtime win as underdogs, including 29-18 ATS as underdogs. I like the Titans a good deal.

Carolina Panthers 17 Tennessee Titans 16

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +4.5

Confidence: High

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