2014 Week 14 NFL Picks

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Jets, Titans, Uncategorized

New York Jets (2-11) at Tennessee Titans (2-11)

The Titans are a really bad team, moving within percentage points of a Raiders team that previously seemed untouchably in last place in rate of moving the chains, after a blowout home loss to the Giants last week. They move the chains at a 66.57% rate, as opposed to 76.11% for their opponents, a differential of -9.53% that ranks 31st (Oakland is at -9.61%). However, the Jets have no business being favored by a field goal on the road against anyone. They rank all the way down at 28th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 67.89% rate, as opposed to 72.70% for their opponents, a differential of -4.81%.

The Jets being favored by a field goal is a drastic shift from last week, when the early line had them as field goal underdogs. I love fading massive line movements because they’re almost often huge overreactions and in this case I think it’s an overreaction to the Titans 36-7 home loss to the Giants. That was an ugly loss, as was their 45-21 loss to the Texans the week before, but teams actually cover at a fairly high rate off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more points, as teams are 41-23 ATS in that spot since 2002. It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. They’re definitely undervalued and they’ll almost definitely be overlooked and embarrassed.

Adding to the theory that the Titans will be overlooked this week is the fact that the Jets have a much bigger game next week with the Patriots coming to town. Teams are 60-94 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, including 31-65 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, 9-24 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs, and 1-7 ATS before being 10+ point home underdogs (the early line in New England -10.5). On top of that, road favorites are 77-120 ATS before being home underdogs since 1989. Combining the two, road favorites are 6-18 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs since 1989. It’s a very small sample size, but the logic definitely makes sense.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play on the Titans is because the Jets are in their 2nd straight road game this week, which is an added benefit. Teams are 46-31 ATS as road favorites off a road loss since 2008, including 38-26 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 182-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.32 points per game, as opposed to 269-385 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. However, that aforementioned 38-26 ATS trend is just 5-9 ATS since 1989 when the previous game was an overtime contest and teams in general are 79-97 ATS since 1989 off of a road overtime loss. The Titans should be the right side.

Tennessee Titans 16 New York Jets 13 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (9-3) at San Diego Chargers (8-4)

On the season, the Patriots are moving the chains at a 78.05% rate, as opposed to 73.15% for their opponents, a differential of 4.90% that ranks 2nd in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Chargers move the chains at a 74.93% rate, as opposed to 73.64% for their opponents, a differential of 1.29% that ranks 13th in the NFL. That suggests that this line is too high at 4, especially since the Patriots haven’t been nearly as good on the road as they have been at home over the past 2 seasons.

While they are undefeated 15-0 at home over the past 2 seasons, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.93 points per game, they are just 7-8 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.20 points per game and going 5-10 ATS. This season, they are moving the chains at a 76.06% rate on the road, as opposed to 74.48% for their opponents, a differential of 1.58%. Meanwhile, they move the chains at a 79.73% rate, as opposed to 71.86% for their opponents, a differential of 7.87% at home.

However, when you consider that the Patriots have been significantly better since week 5, both at home and on the road, this line makes more sense. Their offensive line has settled in, Rob Gronkowski is back to 100%, and the braintrust of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick has made the mid-season adjustments once again, as they always do. Since week 5, they are moving the chains at an 82.37% rate, as opposed to 73.68% for their opponents, a differential of 8.69%. On the road since week 5, they are moving the chains at an 84.62% rate, as opposed to 74.44% for their opponents, a differential of 10.17%.

On top of that, the Patriots are in their 2nd straight road game.  Teams are 44-31 ATS as road favorites off of a road loss since 2008. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 188-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game, as opposed to 266-382 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.35 points per game. This line is a lot more appropriate when you consider that they’ve been much better since the first 4 weeks of the season and that this is their 2nd straight road game.

The Patriots are in a bad spot as an East Coast team playing a night game on the West Coast, a situation teams cover in only about a third of the time because of how circadian rhythms work. However, the Patriots flew to San Diego right after the Green Bay play and will have spent a week there so there shouldn’t be any jetlag issues. Bill Belichick understands this stuff. The Chargers are also in a bad spot as non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional home underdogs next week with Denver coming to town. Teams are 15-30 ATS in that spot since 2002. Meanwhile, Tom Brady is 32-15 ATS in his career off of a loss. I’m taking the Patriots, but I’m not that confident.

New England Patriots 27 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: New England -4

Confidence: Low

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Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Cleveland Browns (7-5)

The Browns are in a bad spot here with the Bengals coming to town net week. Teams are 15-30 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional home underdogs. However, they should still be the right side. This line is too high at 3.5. That means the Colts would be 9.5 point favorites in Indianapolis. Last week, they were favored by 10 over Washington, who is not as good as Cleveland. The public is still all over the Colts though because they don’t put enough value in homefield advantage and don’t understand how the Colts wouldn’t win by 4 or more here. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because they always lose money in the long run and it makes sense here.

On the season, the Browns rank 15th, moving the chains at a 70.48% rate, as opposed to 69.77% for their opponents, a differential of 0.71%, while the Colts rank 3rd, moving the chains at a 77.29% rate, as opposed to 72.54% for their opponents, a differential of 4.75%. The Colts don’t deserve to be 3.5 point favorites here, especially when you take into account that Vontae Davis will be out for the Colts. Davis is easily the Colts’ top defensive player on an otherwise pedestrian defense. The Browns should keep this close, but I’m not that confident.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Cleveland Browns 24

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3.5

Confidence: None

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Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (8-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-3)

The Seahawks are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 46-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 44-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.80 points per game at home. This is opposed to a 25-42 record away from home (29-37-1 ATS), getting outscored by 3.46 points per game. This season, they are 3-3 on the road, as opposed to 5-1 at home. On the road, they’ve moved the chains at a 75.43% rate, as opposed to 74.85% for their opponents, a differential of 0.58%. They’re even worse on the road as underdogs, going 16-25 ATS as road underdogs since 2007.

The Eagles are only favored by a point here, but they’re still favored and they should actually be favored by a little bit more. They rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 72.41% rate, as opposed to 69.57% for their opponents, a differential of 2.84%. The Seahawks, meanwhile, rank 8th, moving them at a 75.14% rate, as opposed to 71.55% for their opponents, a differential of 3.58%. And, as I mentioned, they’ve been very average on the road this season.

The Eagles’ offense hasn’t been much worse since Nick Foles went down and Mark Sanchez took over as they’ve moved the chains at a 72.54% rate over their past 4 games with Sanchez as the starter, though they’ve faced four bad defenses, Carolina (29th), Green Bay (30th), Tennessee (31st), and Dallas (26th). It’s not necessarily that Sanchez has been as good as Foles, but their offensive line has simultaneously gotten significantly healthier and LeSean McCoy has gotten going on the ground. Their defense is the reason they’re way they are this season as they rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains allowed, but their offense has remained serviceable with Sanchez under center. This line should be a closer to 3. In spite of that, the public is on the underdog here.

The Seahawks are in their 2nd straight road game, which should help them. Teams are 46-27 as road underdogs off of a road win as underdogs since 2008. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 188-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game, as opposed to 266-382 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.35 points per game. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 6-6 ATS in their 2nd of two road games. Meanwhile, the Eagles are just 14-26 ATS at home since 2010, though they are 5-1 ATS this season. There’s a lot of conflicting stuff here and I can’t be confident in either side. I’m taking the Eagles gun to my head, but I wouldn’t put money on it.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -1

Confidence: None

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1)

The Bengals have been very good at home over the past 2 seasons. The Bengals are 12-2-1 at home since 2013, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.40 points per game, going 11-4 against the spread. They are also in a good spot because they are projected to be 2 point favorites in Cleveland next week. Teams are 116-84 ATS since 1989 as divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites. Despite that, I like the Steelers this week for a few reasons.

For one, they are only 2 point favorites next week so the line could move to the Browns being favored next week depending on the results of this week. That would put the Bengals in a horrible spot as divisional home favorites are 20-52 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs. The Browns beat the Bengals earlier this season so that game on the horizon could potentially provide a distraction for them.

Two, this line is off because the Bengals are overrated. The Bengals don’t deserve to be favorites here. They rank 23rd, moving the chains at a 71.78% rate, as opposed to 73.37% for their opponents, a differential of -1.59%. The Steelers, meanwhile, rank 6th, moving the chains at a 77.86% rate, as opposed to 74.10% for their opponents, a differential of 3.75%. They’ve been the much better of these two teams this season. Even as good as the Bengals have been at home over the past 2 years, they only have a rate of moving the chains differential of 1.67% at home this season, moving them at a 74.49% rate, as opposed to 72.82% for their opponents. I’m not that confident in the Steelers, but they should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 23 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +3

Confidence: Low

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-10) at Detroit Lions (8-4)

This line is too high. The Lions aren’t as good as their record, as they’ve gone 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They rank just 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 70.83% rate, as opposed to 70.83% for their opponents, a differential of 0.00%. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have just 2 losses by more than 10 points, which is relevant considering this line is at 10. On the road, they only have 1 loss by more than 10 points. They also have road victories as big underdogs in Washington and Pittsburgh and they played close games against solid teams in Cleveland and New Orleans. They rank 29th, moving the chains at a 68.34% rate, as opposed to 74.18% for their opponents, a differential of -5.83%.

The Lions are also in a bad spot because they are 1-11 ATS since 2011 off of a win by 10 or more, including 0-7 ATS as favorites. In those 7 instances as a favorite, they’ve only won twice, meaning they will upset 5 times in a 7 game span. The Buccaneers should be able to keep this one close. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Buccaneers are in a bad spot with a trip to Carolina on deck. Teams are 51-82 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road underdogs since 2002.

Detroit Lions 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +10

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)

Both teams are in terrible spots here. The Jaguars have to go to Baltimore next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs and teams are 44-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. Meanwhile, the Texans have to go to Indianapolis next week, where they are projected to be 7 point underdogs. Favorites of 6 or more are just 46-80 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more since 2002. Even worse, teams are 17-32 ATS since 1989 as road favorites of 4+ before being road underdogs of 4+.

I’m taking the Jaguars because this line is too high and the public is all over Houston. This line has shifted from 3.5 to 6 from last week to this week. I love fading a huge line movement whenever it makes sense and I think it does here because this line should be right around where it was last week, according to rate of moving the chains differential. The Texans rank just 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 71.62% rate, as opposed to 73.00% for their opponents, a differential of -1.38%. Meanwhile, the Jaguars rank 30th, moving the chains at a 65.71% rate, as opposed to 72.87% for their opponents, a differential of -7.15%. I also love fading the public whenever it makes sense and I think it does here. I’m not confident in Jacksonville though.

Houston Texans 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +6

Confidence: None

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Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (7-5) at Miami Dolphins (7-5)

The Dolphins are the better of these two teams, but they are only favored by 2.5 here at home (less than the average homefield advantage adjustment of 3). The Dolphins rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 75.06% rate, as opposed to 70.69%, a differential of 4.37%. Meanwhile, the Ravens rank 9th, moving the chains at a 77.46% rate, as opposed to 73.92% for their opponents, a differential of 3.54%.

This line is too low even before you take into account that the Ravens aren’t as good on the road as they are at home. Since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 45-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.38 points per game, at home, as opposed to 33-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.03 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9.5 points. This season alone, they move the chains at a 74.47% rate on the road, as opposed to 76.50% for their opponents, a differential of -2.03%.

The Dolphins are in a horrible spot though, as they have their toughest game of the season next week, as they head to New England. Meanwhile, the Ravens host the Jaguars next week, which will probably be their easiest game of the season. Non-divisional home favorites are 88-107 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs, while non-divisional road underdogs are 113-75 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional home favorites and teams are 119-96 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2008. Combining these two, teams are 103-63 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. I’m still taking the Dolphins, but I might take the Ravens if the line was 3. It’s that close.

Miami Dolphins 23 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against the spread: Miami -2.5

Confidence: None

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San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (7-5) at Oakland Raiders (1-11)

The Raiders were absolutely destroyed in St. Louis last week, losing by the final score of 52-0, the biggest single game margin of the season. However, that actually puts them in a good spot to cover this week, as teams are 48-25 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by 35 or more. It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. The Raiders aren’t undervalued (I have this line at 8.5, which is essentially where it is), but they will surely be embarrassed and they will almost definitely be overlooked. Adding to the likelihood that the 49ers will overlook the Raiders here is the fact that the 49ers have arguably their biggest game of the season on deck when they travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks.

The early line for that game has them as 7 point underdogs at the site where they lost the NFC Championship last year, against their most bitter rival who beat them last week. The 49ers will have one eye on that game all week in preparing for Oakland and that will show on the field. Favorites of 6 or more are just 46-80 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more since 2002. Even worse, teams are 17-32 ATS since 1989 as road favorites of 4+ before being road underdogs of 4+. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because Oakland has Kansas City on deck where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs and teams are 44-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. However, after what happened last week, the Raiders should be able to be focused on this game, given that they’ll be playing for pride against a hated local rival.

San Francisco 49ers 17 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: Oakland +8

Confidence: Low

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St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (5-7) at Washington Redskins (3-9)

This line shifted an entire field goal from last week to this week as the early line was PK and now the line is at 3 in favor of the Rams on the road. It’s easy to understand why that happened, considering the Rams’ 52-0 trouncing of the Raiders last week. I love fading large line movements whenever it makes sense though as they’re often overreactions and I think that’s the case here. As good as last week’s win was, it was just against the Raiders and the Rams only were able to win by such a margin because they won the turnover battle by 5.

Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that have a turnover margin of +4 on average have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week over the past 25 years. Even crazier, teams with a turnover margin of +5 or more have an average turnover margin of -0.4 the following week. As a result, those teams are 61-84 ATS the following week because the line usually overcompensates for previous week’s game, as is the case here. The public, meanwhile, is still all over the Rams and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as it does here. This is a huge trap game for the public because they don’t understand the flukiness and inconsistency of turnover margins.

Even before the large line movement, I thought we were getting line value with the Redskins. While the Redskins’ record is a couple games worse, they actually rank higher in rate of moving the chains differential. They rank 19th, moving them at a 71.43% rate, as opposed to 72.24% for their opponents, a differential of -0.81%. The Rams, meanwhile, rank 25th, moving them at a 70.11% rate, as opposed to 72.40% for their opponents, differential -2.29%. On the season, the Redskins are +22 in first down margin, while the Rams are -22. The Redskins aren’t definitely better than the Rams, but the Rams don’t have any business being favored by 3 here on the road.

The Redskins are also in the better spot, with a trip to New York to play the Giants on deck. Teams are usually 81-61 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional road underdogs. The Rams, meanwhile, have to take on the Cardinals in 4 days on Thursday Night Football, which opens up an even more powerful trend in the Redskins favor. Teams are 39-61 ATS since 2008 as favorites before Thursday Night Football. We’re getting points at home with the better team at home in the better spot and we get to fade a huge line movement and a heavy public lean. I like the Redskins a good amount this week.

Washington Redskins 24 St. Louis Rams 20 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: High

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