2014 Week 15 NFL Picks

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (2-11) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-6)

The Raiders pulled the improbable upset over the 49ers last week as 8 point home underdogs and they did so in convincing fashion, but we’re still getting line value with the Chiefs as 10 only point home favorites here. The Raiders still rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 63.74% rate, as opposed to 73.35% for their opponents, a differential of -9.61%. The Chiefs, meanwhile, rank 7th, moving the chains at a 74.81% rate, as opposed to 71.06% for their opponents, a differential of 3.75%.

I’m not confident in the Chiefs though, as they aren’t in a great spot either. They have a much tougher game in Pittsburgh next week which could serve as a playoff tiebreaker. Teams are just 99-114 ATS as divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2002. On top of that, this is just the 17th time that a team has been favored by double digits off of 3 straight losses in the past 25 years. Only three teams have covered in that spot over that time period, going 3-12-1 ATS. I’m going with the Chiefs to be the 4th, but I’m not confident at all.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Oakland Raiders 10

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -10

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Lions, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (6-7) at Detroit Lions (9-4)

The Lions are in a good spot here. While they go to Chicago next week, which won’t provide much of a distraction, the Vikings have another tough game on deck, heading to Miami next week. Teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites and 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites. The early line has the Lions favored by 4.5 in Chicago next week. Meanwhile, the early line for Miami/Minnesota is 7 and touchdown underdogs are 77-98 ATS before being touchdown underdogs since 2008.

On top of that, we’re getting some line value with the Lions. They rank XX in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 71.32% rate, as opposed to 70.10% for their opponents, a differential of 1.22%. Meanwhile, the Vikings rank 27th, moving the chains at a 68.65% rate, as opposed to 73.37% for their opponents, a differential of -4.72%. I’m not that confident in the Lions because there isn’t anything super powerful on their side and because they are still just 2-11 ATS off of a win of 10 or more since 2011, but they should be the right side.

Detroit Lions 23 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against the spread: Detroit -7

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Colts, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (9-4)

The Colts have been very good at home in the Andrew Luck era, going 16-7 ATS at home since 2002. We’re also getting a little bit of line value with the Colts, as they rank 3rd, moving the chains at a 76.26% rate, as opposed to 71.26% for their opponents, a differential of 5.00%. Meanwhile, the Texans rank 20th, moving the chains at a 71.93% rate, as opposed to 72.60% for their opponents, a differential of -0.67%.

However, the Texans might be the better spot. Teams are 99-114 ATS since 2002 as divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, while teams are 108-77 ATS since 2002 as divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Combining the two, teams are 62-38 ATS since 2012 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. However, the Colts are only projected to be 1 point underdogs in Dallas next week and the Texans are only projected to be 1 point favorites over Baltimore, so that trend might not necessarily be in play. I’m going with the Colts, but I’m not confident.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -6.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bears, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (5-8) at Chicago Bears (5-8)

This might be the toughest game of the week for me to pick. On one hand, Drew Brees is 22-7 ATS off of a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline. Brees and Payton generally bounce back from adversity well and coming off of a 41-10 loss to the Panthers last week, the Saints have hit rock bottom. You could see it in Sean Payton’s press conference after the game. You could see it by the moves they made this week, cutting Joe Morgan and benching Kenny Vaccaro. I like their chances of bouncing back this week with a playoff berth somehow still up for grabs in the pathetic NFC South. Teams are 81-47 ATS since 2002 off of an ATS loss off of 28 or more.

However, this line is still too high with the Saints favored by 3 on the road. It barely moved from last week when the early line was 3.5 and that might have even been too high then. The Saints rank 12th, moving the chains at a 79.70% rate, as opposed to 78.38% for their opponents, a differential of 1.31%. Meanwhile, the Bears rank 19th, moving the chains at a 75.30% rate, as opposed to 75.69% for their opponents, a differential of -0.39. The Bears are also in a good spot off of a 41-28 home loss to the Cowboys last week as home underdogs, as home underdogs are 69-47 ATS off of losses as home underdogs since 2002. I’m going with the Saints, but I’m not confident at all.

New Orleans Saints 31 Chicago Bears 27

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Patriots, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (7-6) at New England Patriots (10-3)

Both of these two teams are in great spots. The Dolphins are playing arguably the biggest game of their season (a must-win on the road against division rival New England), with no upcoming distractions, as their next game is a home game against Minnesota. The early line in the Minnesota game has them as 7 point favorites. Teams are 108-77 ATS since 2002 as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, including 18-6 ATS as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point favorites, a trend that is 39-15 ATS going back to 1989.

However, it’s not like the Patriots have any upcoming distractions either, with a trip to New York to take on the lowly Jets up next. The early line has them favored by 10. Teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites, 23-8 ATS before being 7+ road favorites, though oddly enough just 4-4 ATS before being 10+ road favorites (might just be a small sample size, that spot is 36-22 ATS since 2002).

The Patriots are usually very good at home, in revenge games, and late in the season, which they have going for them here. The Patriots are undefeated at home over the past two seasons, winning 15 games by an average of 13.93 points per game and covering 11 times. Meanwhile, they haven’t lost to a divisional opponent twice in the same regular season since 2000, going 9-0 straight up and 9-0 ATS in same season divisional revenge games since 2001. Finally, they are 33-4 straight up in the 2nd half of the season since 2010, going 23-13 ATS, including 18-1 straight up at home, 12-7 ATS.

This line is too high for me to be confident though. The Patriots are just 10-8 ATS in the 2nd half of the season since 2010 as 7+ point favorites and just 5-4 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more over the past 2 seasons. Besides, Miami is better than their record, as they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 74.64% rate, as opposed to 72.06% for their opponents, a differential of 2.58%. The Patriots are obviously very good, ranking 2nd, moving the chains at a 77.58% rate, as opposed to 72.29% for their opponents, a differential of 5.29%, but this line is still too high for me to be confident. The Patriots are my pick though.

New England Patriots 27 Miami Dolphins 17

Pick against the spread: New England -7.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, 49ers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (7-6) at Seattle Seahawks (9-4)

This line moved from Seattle being favored by 6.5 last week to them now being favored by 10. I normally hate going with huge line movements, especially doing so also means siding with the public, because significant line movements tend to be overreactions and traps for the public who go with them. However, in this case, the line movement might be appropriate. The 49ers lost to the Raiders last week and not in a fluky fashion. They lost by 11 and they lost the chain battle as well, moving them at a 67.86% rate, as opposed to 75.86% for Oakland. The Raiders looked like the ones favored by 8 in that one, not the other way around. Sure, they were probably caught looking forward to this contest, but that’s still an inexcusable performance.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, won by 10 in Philadelphia in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score. The Eagles got a touchdown basically handed to them off a fluky blocked punt and the Seahawks won the chain battle, moving them at a 75.61% rate, as opposed to a pathetic 52.38% rate for Philadelphia. That moved the Seahawks into 4th on the season in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 75.19% rate, as opposed to 70.44% for their opponents, a differential of 4.74%. The 49ers, meanwhile, rank 17th now, moving them at a 70.73% rate, as opposed to 70.97% for their opponents, a differential of 0.24%. Even with the huge line movement, this line is still very appropriate at 10 in favor of Seattle.

Rate of moving the chains differential has this line at about 8, but that’s before you take into account Seattle’s fantastic homefield advantage. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 46-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 44-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.80 points per game at home. This is opposed to a 26-42 record away from home (30-37-1 ATS), getting outscored by 3.26 points per game. Given that, we might actually still be getting line value with the Seahawks at 10. In 3 trips to Seattle in the Russell Wilson era, the 49ers have lost by margins of 29, 26, and 6 and that was when they were better than they are now.

The Seahawks are also in a great spot as they were projected to be 6.5 road favorites next week in Arizona and that was before the Stanton injury. Teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites, 23-8 ATS before being 7+ road favorites. That’s a little misleading because a game like that coming up usually means that a team has no upcoming distractions. While that line might be appropriate for the Seahawks trip to Arizona, it’s still fair to suggest that the Seahawks might be a little distracted by their upcoming trip to face an Arizona team that still somehow leads the division at 11-3.

On top of the line movement and the public action being on Seattle, the 49ers have three things working for them. For one, divisional home favorites are 25-49 ATS since 2002 against a divisional opponent that they previously beat as road underdogs during that same regular season. It’s a weird trend and it’s a little complicated, but it makes sense when you think about it. In divisional matchups where the homefield advantage decides who is the favorite, generally those two teams are essentially even. Divisional opponents that are essentially even generally split the season series. That seems to happen even if the road team pulls the upset in the first matchup, as the road underdog wins about half the time (39-38) in the rematch and covers at that aforementioned 2/3rds rate. The only problem is that these two teams are clearly not even. The 49ers were only favored by 1 in the first matchup anyway. The Seahawks should have no problem sweeping this season series and could easily win this one by double digits.

The second thing the 49ers have going for them is that teams are 59-39 ATS since 1989 off of a loss as road favorites of 7 or more, including 16-2 ATS as underdogs. On top of that, the 49ers are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 111-76 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 94-54 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 182-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.32 points per game, as opposed to 269-385 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. I still like the Seahawks, but it’s hard to be that confident in them.

Seattle Seahawks 24 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -10

Confidence: Low

Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bills, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (10-3) at Buffalo Bills (7-6)

This line started out at 6 at the beginning of the week, but now is done to everything from 4-5.5 depending on where you get it. That’s despite the public being all over Green Bay, which suggests that the sharps are on Buffalo this week. I love fading the public and going with the sharps whenever it makes sense and it certainly does this week, but I do still wish the line was at 6. The Packers haven’t been nearly as good on the road this season as at home, with just one road win by more than 4 points, and they’re facing a reasonable opponent here who could easily play them close, but I’d need at least 6 points to be confident going against Rodgers this week.

Rodgers has been very good no matter where he’s been this season. The Packers offense has moved the chains at an 81.55% rate at home this season and an 80.00% rate on the road. The difference is their defense has allowed opponents to move the chains at an 81.91% rate on the road this season, as opposed to 73.04% at home. The Bills don’t have a good offense, moving the chains at a 66.49% rate this season, but if the Packers defense plays like it has on the road this season, they shouldn’t have a ton of trouble moving the ball.

Meanwhile, the Bills, more than maybe any other team in the league, have the personnel to slow down the Packers’ offense. Their league best defense in terms of rate of moving the chains allowed at 68.00% allowed the Broncos’ explosive offense to move the chains at a 72.00% rate in Denver last week. If they can slow down the Packers offense and move the ball on a weak Green Bay defense, then I’m happy taking the Bills getting anything more than 4 points here in Buffalo, but I’d need at least 6 to be reasonably confident in the Bills.

The Packers are in a good spot with a trip to Tampa Bay on deck, where the early line has them as 10.5 point favorites. Teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites, 23-8 ATS before being 7+ road favorites, though oddly enough just 4-4 ATS before being 10+ road favorites (might just be a small sample size, that spot is 36-22 ATS since 2002). However, Buffalo has an easy game up next with a trip to Oakland on deck, where the early line has them as 4.5 point favorites. The Bills should be the right side, but again I’m not that confident.

Green Bay Packers 23 Buffalo Bills 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +5.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (10-3) at San Diego Chargers (8-5)

Denver is the best team in the league in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 77.73% rate, as opposed to 71.29% for their opponents, a differential of 6.44%. However, this line is still too high at 4.5. San Diego has a solid squad as well, moving the chains at a 73.91% rate, as opposed to 73.51% for their opponents, a differential of 0.40% that ranks 15th in the NFL. This line should be around a field goal, according to that. That might not seem like a significant difference, but considering 3 and 4 are both key numbers, it is, especially with the public all over the Broncos once again.

On top of that, the Chargers have typically been an auto-bet late in the season, since 2007. They’ve gone 25-4 straight up and 20-9 ATS in weeks 14-17 over that time period. They didn’t cover last week against New England, but that’s because New England is the only team comparably good to the Chargers late season over that time period (26-3 SU, 16-12 ATS). They should have better luck this week against Denver, especially since home underdogs are 69-47 ATS off of losses as home underdogs since 2002. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play for the Broncos is because they’ll be 4 point favorites in Cincinnati next week and teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites and 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites. However, I still like the Chargers as long as the line is above 4 here.

San Diego Chargers 24 Denver Broncos 23 Upset Pick +175

Pick against the spread: San Diego +4.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Falcons, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) at Atlanta Falcons (5-8)

The Packers lost last week in Green Bay, but now they return home. The Falcons are 32-21-1 ATS at home (39-15 straight up) since Matt Ryan and Mike Smith came in back in 2008, as long as Matt Ryan is healthy, including 8-3 ATS as home underdogs, as they are here. The fact that they lost last week actually makes it more likely that they cover this week as they’re very good off of a loss in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. They are 27-14 ATS off of a loss since 2008, including 18-9 ATS at home and 6-1 ATS as home underdogs.

The Steelers, meanwhile, have never been good in these types of games. They are 7-20 ATS since 2007 (when Mike Tomlin took over) as non-divisional road favorites. They always get caught off guard by these types of opponents and I definitely expect that to happen again here with the Steelers sandwiched in between a big upset win in Cincinnati and another very important game with the Chiefs next week that could be a playoff tiebreaker.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a bigger play on Atlanta. For one, Julio Jones is going to be at the very best less than 100% this week with a hip problem, which is an issue, considering how big of a part of their offense he is. Two, the Steelers are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 182-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.32 points per game, as opposed to 269-385 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. However, road favorites off of a road win as underdogs are just 32-28 ATS since 2002, so it’s not that powerful for a trend. The Falcons should be the right side, especially with the public on Pittsburgh.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +2.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Ravens, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) at Baltimore Ravens (8-5)

Baltimore is generally very good at home. Since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 45-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.38 points per game, at home, as opposed to 34-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.24 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9 points. However, while they are 22-12 ATS as home underdogs or home favorites of 7 or more, they are just 9-12 ATS as home favorites of more than 7.

The Ravens are also in a bad spot as they are non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, a situation teams are 78-109 ATS in since 2008. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 123-94 ATS since 2002. Combining the two, teams are 62-38 ATS since 2012 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. The early line of the Ravens’ game in Houston next week is only Houston -1 so the Ravens won’t definitely be underdogs, but the logic still stands. While the Ravens have a much more important game next week on the road against a team still alive in the playoff race, the Jaguars have arguably their easiest game of the season, as they will be favored for the first time all year at home for the Titans.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 19

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +14

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]