2015 NFL Free Agency

Miami Dolphins sign DT Ndamukong Suh

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Suh is a fantastic football player, one of the best defensive tackles in the game, and arguably one of the best players in the NFL regardless of position. He’s been a top-4 defensive tackle on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons, joining only Gerald McCoy as the only two players who can say that. However, there’s no way this isn’t an overpay. This deal will pay Suh 114 million dollars over 6 seasons (19 million dollars annually) with 60 million of that guaranteed. That 19 million dollar annual salary is 5th highest in the NFL regardless of position and the 4 players who make more annually than Suh will on this deal are all quarterbacks.

This is too much for any non-quarterback, except for maybe JJ Watt, but he’s on his own level. The Dolphins are paying a premium to sign Suh on the open market in a bidding war and this just simply isn’t as team friendly of a deal as the one Houston gave to Watt (6-years, 100 million with 51.8 million guaranteed) and Tampa Bay gave to McCoy (7-year, 98 million with 51.5 million guaranteed) last off-season. It’s not a terrible deal or anything, but it’s further proof that it’s always better to build through the draft and lock up your own guys than it is to build through free agency. Miami would have been better off re-signing Jared Odrick for 8 million annually and adding another top free agent to their secondary or their offensive line with the leftover money.

Grade: C+

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Philadelphia Eagles sign CB Byron Maxwell

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, Uncategorized

Byron Maxwell was at the top of my list of guys I expected to get overpaid this off-season and sure enough he was overpaid, as this deal is worth 63 million over 6 seasons, with 25 million over the first 2 years guaranteed. Maxwell was a 6th round pick in 2011, played 152 snaps in his first 2 seasons combined, and then broke into the starting lineup in 2013. He flashed top cornerback ability in limited action in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 16th ranked cornerback on 494 snaps with 5 starts. No one played fewer snaps and graded out better among cornerbacks in 2013. However, Maxwell has never shown that kind of ability over a full season, grading out about average overall in 2014 as a 13-game starter (he missed 3 games with injury) opposite Richard Sherman. He was Pro Football Focus’ 45th ranked cornerback in 2014 and allowed 63.4% completion.

Things aren’t going to get easier for him now that he’s away from Seattle’s scheme, coaching, and supporting cast. The Seahawks barely made an effort to retain him this off-season, which should have been a red flag. The Eagles had a ton of cap space and a huge need at cornerback and I like the moves they made this off-season to free up cap space, but if they’re going to spend it like this, they’re not really going to help themselves. Considering Kareem Jackson got 8.5 million annually and Brandon Flowers got 9 million annually, it’s absurd that Maxwell got 10.5 million annually. Jackson and Flowers are both better players than Maxwell is. This is going to look like the worst overpay of the off-season when we look back at it.

Grade: F

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San Diego Chargers re-sign CB Brandon Flowers

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chargers, Uncategorized

Flowers was Pro Football Focus’ 85th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible in 2013, which led to his release from Kansas City, but, aside from that, he’s been one of the best cornerbacks in football over the last 6 years. From 2009-2012, Flowers graded out in the top-9 among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons, the only cornerback in the NFL who could say that, and then he bounced back in 2014, grading out 15th with the Chargers on a one-year prove it deal.

The 5-10 189 pounder doesn’t fit every scheme and he was a horrible fit for Bob Sutton’s man press scheme in Kansas City in 2013, but San Diego clearly knows how to use him and he’s one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL when used properly. He’s only going into his age 29 season and this 4-year deal worth a total of 36 million is a very good value for him, considering Kareem Jackson got 8.5 million annually and Byron Maxwell is expected to clear 10 million annually.

Grade: A

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Buffalo Bills extend RB LeSean McCoy

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bills, Uncategorized

When the Bills swapped Kiko Alonso for LeSean McCoy earlier this week, a lot of people didn’t get it. After all, McCoy is a better player than Alonso. While that might be true, it could easily not be a true a year or two from now, as Alonso is going into his age 25 season and McCoy is going into his age 27 season at a position with a very short careerspan. Then there’s the issue of money. McCoy was owed 24.5 million over the final 3 seasons of his deal, while Alonso was owed 1.7 million over the final 2 seasons of his deal, with an option to be signed cheaply for 2017 as well as a restricted free agent.

If that wasn’t bad enough, the Bills made matters worse by ripping up McCoy’s original deal and replacing it with a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal with 26.25 million guaranteed. They kind of had to do that, as McCoy was not happy about being traded to Buffalo, but it’s still way too much money. If McCoy plays like he did in 2013 for each of the next 3 seasons, he’ll be worth that 26.25 million guaranteed, but that’s doubtful and not just because of his age.

That 2013 season is the only season he’s ever graded out above 10th on Pro Football Focus among running backs. He’s a good running back with one great season on his resume. He’s not a great running back. Given how much the running back position has been devalued in the NFL, I’m not even sure McCoy would have gotten this kind of deal if he was a free agent this off-season. The Bills are giving him this deal AND giving up a promising young linebacker for him. It’s going to backfire long-term for a team that needs to retain Jerry Hughes and Marcell Dareus long-term and add to an offensive line that ranked 32nd on Pro Football Focus in run blocking last season. For comparison, Philadelphia ranked 1st. McCoy can’t be happy about that. Maybe that’s why he demanded this extension.

Grade: D

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Green Bay Packers re-sign WR Randall Cobb

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Packers, Uncategorized

Earlier this week, the reports said that the Packers were unwilling to move past 8-9 million dollars annually for Cobb and that Cobb would likely leave and take a contract worth 11-12 million dollars in Oakland. It appears the two sides have come to a compromise right in the middle at 10 million annually and, in this case, this is the type of compromise where both sides win. Cobb takes less money than he would have gotten elsewhere, but he still gets 40 million over 4 years and he gets to continue playing with arguably the best quarterback in the NFL.

In Oakland, he would have likely struggled to put up numbers on a losing team and could have easily been cut midway through his contract for not putting up numbers comparable to his large salary. In Green Bay, he’s much more likely to be kept for the duration of the contract and he’ll hit free agency again in 4 years going into his age 29 season with a chance at another big payday. Even though he took less money to return to Green Bay, this deal likely maximizes his career earnings potential.

In that way, Cobb was the real winner here, but the Packers have to be pretty happy with the deal too. They aren’t getting Cobb quite as cheaply as they would have liked earlier in the week, but they’re still getting a discount over what he would have gotten on the open market and a solid value. While it’s not hard to get good production out of receivers when you have Aaron Rodgers under center, Cobb is still a very valuable part of this offense.

Cobb didn’t see a ton of playing time as a 2nd round rookie in 2011 and he missed 10 games with a broken leg in 2013, but in his other two seasons, he’s put up 80/954/8 and then career high numbers in 2014, 91/1287/12 as a starting receiver opposite Jordy Nelson on arguably the best offense in the NFL. Rodgers was a big part of that, but Cobb was also Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked wide receiver last season and he was 11th in 2012. Other than the leg injury, he doesn’t have much of an injury history and he’s only going into his age 25 season so he could keep getting better. This isn’t spectacular value or anything, but this is a good move for the Packers.

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New Orleans Saints re-sign RB Mark Ingram

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Saints, Uncategorized

Mark Ingram rushed for 964 yards and 9 touchdowns on 226 carries (4.27 YPC) is 2014, but he’s a one year wonder who rushed for 1462 yards and 11 touchdowns on 356 carries (4.11 YPC) in his first 3 seasons combined, after the Saints drafted him in the 1st round in 2011. On top of that, his injury history is concern (14 games missed in 4 seasons) and he doesn’t contribute as a pass catcher (53 catches in 4 seasons). The Saints aren’t breaking the bank for Ingram on this 4-year, 16 million dollar deal, but this is still a fairly significant chunk of change in a league where the running back position is as devalued as it’s ever been. On top of that, the Saints have arguably the worst cap situation in the NFL and probably would have been better off letting Ingram walk and using the younger, cheaper Khiry Robinson in tandem with a rookie in 2015. I don’t hate the move, but it’s not one I would have made.

Grade: C+

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Houston Texans re-sign CB Kareem Jackson

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Texans, Uncategorized

Kareem Jackson was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked cornerback in 2014 and he’s not a one year wonder, because he graded out 12th among cornerbacks in 2012 as well. However, he’s graded out below average in his other 3 seasons in the NFL, including each of his first two seasons after the Texans drafted him in the first round in 2010. There’s two ways to look at this. One is to see him as an inconsistent player. The other is to see him as someone who got off to a slow start in his career, but has generally been good since then.

This deal, 34 million over 4 years, with 20 million guaranteed is about what I expected him to get this off-season, but, as I said in the Texans’ off-season preview, any deal he was going to be given this off-season was going to be a risky move. I stand by that and I would not have guaranteed him that much money. I understand why the Texans made this move and the contract wasn’t completely inappropriate or anything, but I don’t love the move because of his past inconsistencies.

Grade: B-

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Dallas Cowboys re-sign OT Doug Free

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Free was going to be a risky signing anywhere he went, as he’s going into his age 31 season and he struggled mightily in 2011 and 2012, to the point where he was briefly benched down the stretch in 2012. He graded out 51st out of 76 eligible in 2011 and 68th out of 80 eligible in 2012. However, those two seasons were sandwiched in between 4 seasons in which he graded out above average, including 20th in 2013 and 21st in 2014. The 8-year veteran has made 83 starts for the Cowboys over the past 6 seasons and has generally played well. This 3-year, 15 million dollar deal also doesn’t have any guaranteed money after the first year, in which he’ll be guaranteed 6 million, so it’s fairly low risk. This is a good value for Free.

Grade: A-

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Houston Texans re-sign OT Derek Newton

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Texans, Uncategorized

If Newton plays like he did last season, he’s worth this deal, which will pay him 26.5 million over 5 years and essentially guarantees him 13.5 million over 2 years (only 10 million is actually guaranteed, but they’re unlikely to cut him after one year with guaranteed money still owed in 2016). In 2014, Newton graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked offensive tackle, grading out below average in pass protection, but excelling in the run game, grading out 4th at that aspect in 2015.

This issue, in addition to his struggles in pass protection, is the 2011 7th round pick is a one-year wonder. Newton has started 46 games over the past 3 seasons, but he was horrible in both 2012 and 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus 64th ranked offensive tackle out of 80 eligible in 2012 and 72nd out of 76 eligible in 2013. Given that, this is a very risky deal, but it could be worth it as Newton was an important part of this line in 2014.

Grade: C+

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Washington Redskins re-sign TE Niles Paul

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, Uncategorized

Niles Paul was a 5th round pick of the Redskins’ in 2011 and turning the big bodied wide receiver into a pass catching tight end was always kind of a pet project of Mike Shanahan’s. Ironically, Paul didn’t really produce until this year, when Jay Gruden came in. Paul caught 39 passes for 507 yards and a touchdown on 280 routes run, largely in the absence of oft injured tight end Jordan Reed. The 6-1 241 pounder predictably struggles as a run blocker (62nd out of 67 eligible in that aspect this season), but has a role in the league as a #2 move tight end.

This 3-year, 10 million dollar deal keeps him off the open market where he would have joined a weak tight end market. With Charles Clay getting transition tagged by the Dolphins, you could make a case that Paul was the 3rd best tight end on the open market after Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron. Given that, this deal makes sense financially, even if it is a slight overpay for a guy who doesn’t block well enough to be an every down tight end. However, tight end wasn’t really a need for the Redskins. As injury prone as Jordan Reed is, he’s still a very solid, young tight end overall when healthy and it would have made more sense for the Redskins to save this money for more help defensively, but I don’t hate the move.

Grade: B-

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