2019 NFL Picks

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: 2019 Week 9 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (1-6) at Miami Dolphins (0-7)

Remember when the Jets beat the Cowboys a few weeks ago? At the time, it looked like the Jets were turning a corner, beating a quality team in quarterback Sam Darnold’s return from illness, but instead it looks like one of those results that won’t make any sense when we go back and look at the season (remember the Bears beating the Vikings week 4?). In two games since, the Jets have lost by a combined 47 points to the Patriots and Jaguars. 

In four games started by Sam Darnold this season, the Jets have just a 30.97% first down rate and a -4.92% first down rate differential, which would rank 30th and 28th respectively over the course of the full season. Darnold is hardly the problem though, as they had a pathetic 18.01% first down rate in the 3 games he was out. Outside of running back Le’Veon Bell, the Jets don’t have a single above average starter on their entire offense and their defense isn’t nearly good enough to keep them in games, especially without injured linebacker CJ Mosley. Overall they rank just 30th in my roster rankings, ahead of only the league’s remaining two winless teams, the Bengals and the Dolphins.

The Jets get to face those winless Dolphins this week, but they might not have as easy of a time with them as the Dolphins’ other opponents have. The Jets are favored by just 3 points, giving the Dolphins their highest expected odds of winning a game all season. This line shifted from 6.5 on the early line last week and normally I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements, but I have this line calculated at exactly -3. 

The Dolphins have given much better effort in recent weeks, as they try to avoid a winless season for pride purposes, and they are a better team with veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick under center as well. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see them pull this small upset. I’m taking the Jets for pick ‘em purposes because I’ve said I’m not taking Miami this year unless I have a good reason to (which I would have is this line was still 6+), but this is my lowest confidence pick of the week.

New York Jets 20 Miami Dolphins 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -3

Confidence: None

Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills: 2019 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (1-7) at Buffalo Bills (5-2)

It’s unfortunate that the Redskins won’t be starting Case Keenum in this game because I probably would have made a pretty substantial bet on the Redskins this week if he was starting. The Bills are 5-2, but shouldn’t be favored by double digits except anyone except maybe the Dolphins. Despite facing the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL in terms of DVOA, the Bills have just one win by more than 10 points, with an average margin of victory of 7.2 points per game against 5 teams that are a combined 7-31. Their only win over a team that currently has at least a .500 record came by 7 points against a now 4-4 Titans team that missed 4 field goals in the game.  However, with Keenum still in the concussion protocol, the Redskins will have to turn to first round rookie Dwayne Haskins, which adds a lot of uncertainty to this game.

Haskins still has upside long-term, but he’s been horrendous in limited action thus far, completing just 12 of 22 passes with 4 interceptions, and behind the scenes he likely hasn’t been much better, as the Redskins have been very hesitant to let him play, even with a first round pedigree and an overall lost season. He also was pretty underwhelming in the pre-season, despite playing against mostly backups. Haskins came into the NFL very inexperienced and may ultimately benefit in the long run from being forced into some action as a rookie, but he could also go through some serious growing pains in his first few starts. I still have this line calculated at only Buffalo -7.5 even with Haskins in the lineup, but there’s too much uncertainty for me to bet the Redskins confidently, even with the line moving up to 10.5. 

Buffalo Bills 20 Washington Redskins 13

Pick against the spread: Washington +10.5

Confidence: Low

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos: 2019 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (2-5) at Denver Broncos (2-6)

Broncos quarterback Joe Flacco is done for the season with a neck injury and, with expected backup Drew Lock still working back from off-season thumb surgery, the Broncos will instead turn to Brandon Allen, a 2016 6th round pick who has never thrown a regular season pass across stints with 3 teams: the Jaguars, Rams, and Broncos. As a result, this line that opened at Denver -1.5 has now moved all the way to Denver +4.

It’s always risky to bet on a quarterback with no regular season experience, but it’s hard to justify a 5.5-point shift like that given the way Joe Flacco has played this season, especially in recent weeks. This offense has problems beyond Flacco, especially with Emmanuel Sanders now with the 49ers and right tackle Ja’Wuan James again injured, but they’ve ranked just 29th in first down rate this season at 31.54%, so Allen is unlikely to be a significant downgrade. And given the way we’ve seen some inexperienced backup quarterbacks come out and play well in their first few starts this season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Allen actually ended up being a little bit of an upgrade under center for a few games.

Even with their offensive struggles, the Broncos have ranked 17th in first down rate differential this season at -0.41%, as a result of a dominant defense that ranks 4th in first down rate differential. An already talented unit last season, they have been taken to the next level in 2019 by defensive minded head coach Vic Fangio and free agent acquisition Kareem Jackson, who has been one of the best defensive backs in the league this season. The Broncos are just 2-6, but three of their losses came on last second field goals, so they aren’t far away from being a 4-5 win team right now. 

The Browns, meanwhile, rank 25th in first down rate differential at -3.70% and have had below average play on both sides of the ball, ranking 25th in first down rate and 20th in first down rate allowed. They’ve had one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, but the Broncos haven’t had a cakewalk schedule either. This line suggests the Browns would be favored by about 10 points if this game was in Cleveland, so I think it’s way too high. I have the line calculated at Denver -1, even with the uncertainty of Allen under center. There’s too much risk here for this to be a big bet, but the Broncos are worth a play this week.

Cleveland Browns 17 Denver Broncos 16

Pick against the spread: Denver +4

Confidence: Medium

Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers: 2019 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (4-4) at Carolina Panthers (4-3)

Prior to last week’s loss, the Panthers were undefeated with backup quarterback Kyle Allen under center and could have arguably been undefeated on the season had they started Allen to begin the season instead of a very injured Cam Newton, who started 2 games that were lost by a combined 9 points. However, a couple of their victories also could have gone the other way and they were embarrassed in their loss last week, losing 51-13 in San Francisco. 

On the season, they rank just 22nd in first down rate differential at -2.41% after that loss. The 49ers are arguably the best team in the NFL, but that was still a humiliating defeat for a team that considered itself in contention, and even before that loss to San Francisco, the Panthers ranked just 13th in first down rate differential at +1.71%. Allen is seemingly regressing weekly and overall he ranks 5th worst in yards per attempt (6.66) among qualifying quarterbacks. 

The Titans are also starting a backup quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, but he’s playing at a higher level (73.1% completion, 8.32 YPA) and is a much more experienced player. He’s not a great starter, but the Titans have a strong roster overall and don’t need much more than competent quarterback play from him. Even with underwhelming quarterback play, the Titans went 9-7 last season, despite facing a league high 9 playoff teams (4-5).

Their defense ranked 4th in first down rate allowed at 32.77% in 2018 and that has carried into this season, as they rank 5th at 32.68%. If Tannehill can continue playing competently, they should be a tough team going forward. Even with Mariota starting the first 6 games of the season, the Titans rank 13th in first down rate at +1.14%, significantly better than the Panthers, who rank 22nd. That’s consistent with my roster rankings, which have the Titans 11th and the Panthers 18th. 

I have this line calculated at even, so we’re getting good line value with the Titans at +3.5, with about 1 in 4 games decided by 3 points or fewer. They’d probably be my Pick of the Week if they had defensive lineman Jurrell Casey healthy, but the Titans are deep at that position with DaQuon Jones and Jeffrey Simmons, a first round rookie who has played well in his first 2 games back from a torn ACL, so losing Casey isn’t as big of a deal as it could have been. The Titans also will have cornerback Adoree Jackson, edge rusher Cameron Wake, and middle linebacker Jayon Brown, who’ve all missed time previously this season. I still like the Titans a lot as long as this line is higher than a field goal.

Tennessee Titans 20 Carolina Panthers 19 Upset Pick +165

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3.5

Confidence: High

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks: 2019 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5) at Seattle Seahawks (6-2)

I locked this line in at Tampa Bay +6 earlier this week during my Thursday Night Football write up and I’m glad I did because heavy sharp action on the Buccaneers has driven the line down to +5. The Seahawks are 6-2, but outside of MVP candidate Russell Wilson they have a pretty mediocre roster and have not played all that well that season, in spite of what their record suggests. Five of their 6 wins have come by a combined 15 points, including wins over the Bengals, Steeelers, Browns, and Falcons, who are a combined 6-24. They have just a +12 point differential and they rank just 14th in first down rate differential at +1.13%, despite facing the 8th easiest schedule in the NFL in terms of DVOA. 

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have faced the 5th hardest schedule in the NFL in terms of DVOA and they’ve been competitive, despite their record. They rank 15th in first down rate differential at -0.18%, not far behind the Seahawks. They’re also in a much better spot, as the Seahawks have to turn around and go to San Francisco next week, while the Buccaneers get to host the Cardinals. Underdogs are 68-31 ATS since 2016 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. This is definitely a look ahead spot for a Seahawks team that has had trouble winning by convincingly by big margins all season and I wouldn’t be surprised if this underrated Buccaneers team pulled the upset. This is my top Pick of the Week and I’d recommend a bet even if you didn’t get the +6 early. 

Seattle Seahawks 33 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +6

Confidence: Pick of the Week

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2019 Week 9 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (7-0) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1)

The Patriots have gotten a lot of attention for how they’ve started the season, but the 49ers have arguably been better. Their point differential (+130) is behind New England’s (+189), but they’ve also played one fewer game and they’ve been far less dependent on the turnover margin (+17 vs. +4), which tends to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. In terms of first down rate differential, the 49ers hold the edge 12.75% to 11.61%. That’s despite the fact that the 49ers have faced a tougher schedule than the Patriots.

The 49ers’ schedule does get easier this week, as they head to Arizona for Thursday Night Football. The Cardinals are 3-4-1, but their three wins have come by an average of 3.3 points per game against 3 teams that are a combined 3-21, while their four losses have come by an average of 15.8 points per game. In terms of first down rate differential, they rank 30th at -7.59%. They should have a lot of trouble with the 49ers, like they have with all competent or better competition this season. 

Unfortunately, we’re not getting much line value with the 49ers, as this line has skyrocketed from San Francisco -6.5 on the early line last week to San Francisco -10, after the 49ers blew out the Panthers last week, while the Cardinals were blown out in New Orleans. I have this line calculated at San Francisco -12, but there’s not enough here for the 49ers to be worth betting, especially since these Thursday night games can be tough to predict.

I am also locking in TB +6 @ SEA before that line moves any more. I am considering that for Pick of the Week. 

San Francisco 49ers 26 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -10

Confidence: Low

2019 Week 8 NFL Pick Results

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Week 8

Total Against the Spread: 9-6

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence Picks: 2-0

Medium Confidence Picks: 3-3

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 6-3

Low Confidence Picks: 1-0

No Confidence Picks: 2-3

Upset Picks: 0-0

2019

Total Against the Spread: 65-54-2 (54.55%)

Pick of the Week: 7-1 (87.50%)

High Confidence Picks: 12-4-1 (73.53%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 14-15-1 (48.33%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 33-20-2 (61.82%)

Low Confidence Picks: 16-18 (47.06%)

No Confidence Picks: 16-16 (50.00%)

Upset Picks: 11-11 (50.00%)

2018

Total Against the Spread: 154-102-11 (59.74%)

Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (61.76%)

High Confidence Picks: 21-13-2 (61.11%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 41-27-1 (60.14%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 72-46-4 (60.66%)

Low Confidence Picks: 35-28-1 (55.47%)

No Confidence Picks: 47-28-6 (61.73%)

Upset Picks: 25-17-1 (59.30%)

All-Time (Since 2013)

Total Against the Spread: 910-764-49 (54.24%)

Pick of the Week: 68-41-3 (62.05%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 435-312-20 (58.02%)

Upset Picks: 143-164-1 (46.59%)

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2019 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (0-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4)

The Steelers have had a strange season. On one hand, they haven’t lost by more than a field goal since their week 1 trip to New England, despite starting three different quarterbacks, even winning with third string undrafted rookie Devlin Hodges under center in their most recent game before the bye. Even with that 30-point week 1 loss in New England included, the Steelers have a -8 point differential that isn’t terrible, especially considering they’ve faced the second toughest schedule in the league by DVOA and that they are the only team in the league who have faced both the undefeated Patriots and the undefeated 49ers. This week, the Steelers get back second string quarterback Mason Rudolph, who was showing signs of progress before being concussed in the Steelers week 5 game loss to the Ravens, a game they likely would have won had he not gotten injured.

On the other hand, the Steelers have benefited immensely from turnovers and turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. The Steelers have a +7 turnover margin on the season that ranks 2nd only to the Patriots and is easily the best among teams with a negative point differential (the Lions are +4 at -11 and the Cardinals are +2 at -31). There have been just 18 instances of a team losing a game this season despite winning the turnover battle and the Steelers were on the losing end of 3 of those games (Seahawks, 49ers, Ravens). In terms of first down rate differential, the Steelers rank 22nd at +-.72%, which is underwhelming. In my roster rankings, they rank 21st, with their defense suffering a huge blow when Stephon Tuitt went down for the season with an injury in their last game before the bye. He had been one of the top defensive linemen in the league this season. 

Tuitt might not be missed this week though, as the Steelers’ schedule suddenly gets much easier with the Dolphins coming to town. The Dolphins are better when veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick is under center, as young quarterback Josh Rosen has shown no ability to deal with the heavy amounts of pressure let up by this backup caliber offensive line, but they are still one of the worst teams in the league by a mile, regardless of who is under center. After an off-season teardown, they have few talented players remaining and those players likely aren’t giving 100% effort for a coaching staff and front office that transparently doesn’t care about winning this season. This line is about right at -14, but I’m not taking the Dolphins this season unless I have a great reason to, so the Steelers are the pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -14

Confidence: None

New York Giants at Detroit Lions: 2019 Week 8 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (2-5) at Detroit Lions (2-3-1)

This one is a tough call. On one hand, the Lions are favored by 6.5 points and have yet to beat a team convincingly, with both of their wins coming by a field goal. They have a decent 2-3-1 record, but they have just a -11 point differential even with a +4 turnover margin. No team with a worse point differential has better than a +2 turnover margin and turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. In terms of first down rate differential, they rank 3rd at -3.17%. On top of that, they are also missing top cornerback Darius Slay. 

The Giants aren’t exactly a tough opponent though, ranking 26th in my roster rankings, and, even with the Lions being underwhelming thus far this season, I still have this line calculated at Detroit -5. We’re getting some line value with the Giants, but not a significant amount, and the Giants are also in a tough spot, with a bigger game against the Cowboys on deck. Teams tend to struggle before big home games, going 42-74 ATS since 2014 before being home underdogs of 6+ and the Cowboys are currently -7.5 on the early line. Underdogs of 6+ are also just 58-90 ATS since 2014 before being underdogs of 6+ again, as it’s tough for an inferior team to hang with a superior team if they have another tough game on deck. I’m taking the Giants, but for a no confidence pick, as it would hardly be a surprise to see the Lions win by a touchdown.

Detroit Lions 26 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6.5

Confidence: None