49ers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade CB Eric Wright to the San Francisco 49ers

stevenlourie 49ers, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Trade for Tampa Bay: When the Buccaneers signed Eric Wright to a 5-year, 37.5 million dollar contract this off-season, it looked like an absolutely ridiculous deal. Wright was one of the worst starting cornerbacks in the NFL the prior two seasons (just ask Cleveland and Detroit fans). There was a reason he was available for a 1-year deal the previous off-season before the 2011 season. In 2011 with the Lions, he ranked 105 of 109 eligible cornerbacks by ProFootballFocus last season, allowing a completion percentage of 62.5%, 7.0 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, all while ranking below average against the run. He was actually thrown on more than any cornerback in the league except Jabari Greer, being thrown on 120 times. It was a move that reeked of desperation for a team with no defensive back talent and plenty of cap space to burn.

In 2012, he graded out below average on 518 snaps before the best possible thing that could happen for the Buccaneers happened: Wright got suspended for 4 games for performance enhancing drugs. That suspension voided all the guaranteed money on Wright’s deal and gave them all the leverage in the off-season, as they restructured his contract down to 1 year and a non-guaranteed 1.5 million for the 2013 season (rather than just cutting him outright). However, he was arrested again for DUI earlier this month (he had a previous arrest last off-season) and that was apparently the last straw for the Buccaneers, who would have cut him outright (penalty free) and owed him no money, if they couldn’t find a trade partner. Given that, credit them for actually getting something for him, even if it is just a conditional late round pick.

They won’t really miss Wright. Obviously they have Darrelle Revis, but they also have Jonathan Banks and Leonard Johnson. Banks, a 2nd round rookie, will step into the starting lineup for Wright and while he’s unproven, he has much more upside. Johnson, meanwhile, could be a diamond in the rough as the 3rd cornerback. He went undrafted in 2012 after running a 4.71 40 at 5-10 196, but played well as a rookie, grading out above average on ProFootballFocus. He’s a good press cornerback and will probably move Banks to the slot in 3-cornerback sets.

Grade: A

Trade for San Francisco: This is a pretty low risk trade for the 49ers because they aren’t giving up much (late round picks have a hard time making their roster because of their depth) and because he doesn’t have any guaranteed money, but he’s still not a great talent and there’s a chance he could be facing another suspension after another off-season DUI (last year’s was a felony and this was a misdemeanor, so that’s progress). He’ll compete with Nnamdi Asomugha and incumbent Chris Culliver for the 3rd cornerback job, which gets a lot of action in San Francisco’s defense. Whoever wins that battle will line up opposite Tarell Brown with Carlos Rogers (who led the NFL in slot snaps played last season) on the slot. Wright is probably the favorite and could be the most talented of the bunch. He’s a good fit for the 49ers’ coverage scheme and their front 7 could make him look better than he is.

Grade: B

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2013 San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, 49ers, Uncategorized

QB Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco)

In 10 starts last year, including playoffs, Kaepernick threw for 2406 yards, with 14 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 502 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 3850 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 803 rushing yards, and 8 touchdowns. Michael Crabtree is out, but Vernon Davis, who did nothing for him until late in the playoff run last year, should be able to make up for his absence along with veteran Anquan Boldin, 2nd year receiver AJ Jenkins and a pair of rookies Quinton Patton and Vance McDonald. I’m not going to quite project those stats for him because he won’t catch anyone by surprise this year, but he’s still a projected top-5 fantasy quarterback.

Projection: 3600 passing yards 22 touchdowns 9 interceptions 700 rushing yards 7 touchdowns (326 pts standard, 370 pts 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Frank Gore (San Francisco)

For the 3rd straight year, the 49ers have drafted a running back. While Marcus Lattimore might not play a snap this year due to injury, it’s just another reminder that the 49ers feel Gore doesn’t have much left. Heading into his age 30 season, Gore has played all 16 games in each of the last 2 years after doing so just once in his first 6 seasons, but the reason for that is because the 49ers have cut his touches per game in each of the last 2 years, from 22.6 in 2010 to 18.7 in 2011 to 17.9 in 2012. Expect that number to shrink down even more in 2013 with Kendall Hunter returning from injury and LaMichael James getting a bigger role and he’s no lock to play all 16 games.

It’s also worth noting that he’s tired out down the stretch in each of the last 2 seasons. In 2011, he averaged 4.9 YPC in his first 8 games and 3.6 YPC in his last 8 games, while in 2012, he went from 5.5 YPC to 4.0 YPC. He’s also not as big a part of the passing game under Jim Harbaugh as he used to be, catching 45 passes in the last 2 years combined after averaging 51 per year in the previous 5 years. Colin Kaepernick, who rarely checks down, threw to him even less, as he caught just 11 passes in his 10 starts. Gore is a RB2, but one with little upside and a lot of downside considering his age and the amount of competition in the backfield.

Projection: 220 carries for 990 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 20 catches for 160 yards (163 pts standard, 183 pts PPR)

WR Anquan Boldin (San Francisco)

Anquan Boldin had a great post-season last year and is their #1 wide receiver after the injury to Michael Crabtree, but he’ll probably be overdrafted. He turns 33 in October and while his production has been hanging in the 837-921 yard range over the last 3 seasons, I think it’s unlikely he gets across that 1000 yard threshold this year and he certainly won’t match Michael Crabtree’s 1105 yards. Vernon Davis is a better bet to lead the 49ers in receiving yards.

Projection: 65 catches for 880 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (124 pts standard, 189 pts PPR)

TE Vernon Davis (San Francisco)

Vernon Davis caught just 41 passes for 548 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2012 and was even worse in the 2nd half of the year as he didn’t show any chemistry with new quarterback Colin Kaepernick, catching 16 passes for 174 yards and 1 touchdown in the final 8 games of the regular season. However, that changed in the post-season, as he caught 12 passes for 254 yards and a touchdown in 3 games. With another off-season working with Kaepernick, Davis should continue that kind of production and is the favorite to lead the team in receiving with Michael Crabtree out. He and Boldin are the only veteran receivers they have and Davis is simply more talented, younger, and more familiar with Kaepernick.

Projection: 58 catches for 900 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (132 pts standard, 190 pts PPR)

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San Francisco 49ers Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Tarell Brown

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, 49ers, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team (rookies don’t count). For the San Francisco 49ers, that player is cornerback Tarell Brown.

On a defense as good as the 49ers’, it’s easy for a very talented player to go unnoticed. While guys like Justin Smith, Aldon Smith, Patrick Willis, and NaVorro Bowman rightfully get all the attention, Tarell Brown was probably the 3rd biggest named member of their secondary last year, behind #1 cornerback Carlos Rogers and safety Dashon Goldson, who signed one of the richest contracts ever for a safety this off-season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

On a defense that sent 6 players to the Pro-Bowl (due to a combination of skill and the San Francisco Bay Area’s tendency to dominate All-Star game voting), Brown, one of 5 San Francisco starters who didn’t receive the honor, is the definition of a forgotten man. However, he finished the season as by far San Francisco’s highest rated defensive back and most importantly he got better as the season went on, which bodes well for the 28-year-old’s 2013 prospects, as he heads into the final year of his contract. The 49ers would be wise to lock him up now before he breaks out, especially since they could have to deal with long term extensions for Aldon Smith and Colin Kaepernick next off-season, as well as determine pending free agent Justin Smith’s future with the team.

Brown finished 2012 as ProFootballFocus’ 13th ranked cornerback, 7th if post-season is included. He didn’t allow a touchdown through the regular season, something only Cortland Finnegan and Antoine Winfield could also say among 16 game starters at cornerback. He was memorably burned for a touchdown by Julio Jones in San Francisco’s eventual NFC Championship victory over the Falcons, but that was the only touchdown he allowed all season, including playoffs, over 779 coverage snaps. He also missed just one tackle all season.

He finished the season allowing 61.1% completion on 113 attempts for 890 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions, 14 deflections, and 9 penalties. However, he really hit his stride starting week 8, grading out 2.0 (elite) or better on ProFootballFocus in 6 of his final 12 games, including 3 of 4 post-season games (Atlanta excluded). From week 8 on, he allowed 47 completions on 82 attempts (57.3%) for 551 yards (6.7 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions. In those final 12 games, he had 13 of his 14 deflections, including a 5 deflection game against Arizona week 8 that was his best game of the season.

While Carlos Rogers is technically the 49ers’ #1 cornerback, the 49ers have their cornerbacks exclusively cover one side of the field, rather than having one guy shadow the opponent’s best receiver, so Brown had plenty of chances to go against the best receivers in the league, especially down the stretch and he more than held his own. Working exclusively on the right side, Brown held Brandon Marshall to one catch for 8 yards on 3 attempts, Jordy Nelson to 1 catch for 8 yards on 2 attempts (in their post-season matchup with Green Bay), and Larry Fitzgerald to 1 catch for 15 yards on 5 attempts in 2 games.

Only Julio Jones, who burned him for 7 catches for 80 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, got the best of him among the elite receivers he faced down the stretch. With Goldson gone and Carlos Rogers aging, Brown could have his biggest responsibilities yet this season and could finish the year as San Francisco’s de facto #1 cornerback. Based on his play last season, he seems up to the challenge.

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Baltimore Ravens trade WR Anquan Boldin to the San Francisco 49ers

stevenlourie 49ers, Ravens

Trade for Baltimore: I get that the Ravens were going to cut Anquan Boldin if they couldn’t find a suitor via trade and given that it’s good that they got something for him, but I question the logic of cutting him in the first place. He was just as big a reason why they won the Super Bowl as Joe Flacco and Flacco, who they just signed to a massive long-term deal, took Boldin’s side in negotiating with the Ravens and supported his stand when he was asked to take a pay cut. Flacco knows he owes Boldin a ton. The last thing you want to do is upset your franchise quarterback.

I get that the Ravens needed to clear some cap room, but there were other ways of doing so (his pay cut was only going to clear 2 million, so it’s not like they felt they definitely needed to clear 6 million) and Boldin wasn’t an absolute must get rid of at his scheduled salary. He was worth the 6 million he was owed next season. He didn’t have huge numbers this year, but made some excellent catches, especially in the post-season and really had a huge post-season in general. He’s lost the ability to separate at this point in his career, but he’s never really been able to separate and his ability to make contested catches with excellent hands and body control won’t really get old.

Grade: D

Trade for 49ers: The 49ers were expected to have 15 draft picks after compensatory picks were handed out, including a bunch in the late rounds. Those late rounders were probably going to be practice squad guys at best because of how deep this roster already is, so why not give one up for Boldin? I’ve already established he’s worth his salary this season, but he’ll have a big impact for the 49ers as now inexperienced AJ Jenkins won’t be forced into a starting role on what should be a contending team once again in 2013. Also, Boldin is only under contract one more year so this move won’t hinder their ability to go after Darrelle Revis if they so choose nor will it hinder their ability to extend Aldon Smith and Colin Kaepernick long-term next off-season.

Grade: A

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San Francisco 49ers trade QB Alex Smith to the Kansas City Chiefs

stevenlourie 49ers, Chiefs

Trade for Chiefs: I was stunned when I saw what the 49ers got for Alex Smith. When news that the 49ers and Chiefs likely had a deal in place for Alex Smith broke, it was rumored that they got anything from a 3rd to 5th rounder. Reports leading up to the trade said that the 49ers wouldn’t get anything more than a mid-round pick, including a Sacramento Bee report on Wednesday Morning, hours before the compensation was announced, that said the 49ers wouldn’t get anything more than a 4th rounder.

That made sense. Smith was a free agent last off-season and teams weren’t exactly lining up to pay him. Owed 16 million over the final 2 years of his contract, it made sense that teams didn’t want to pony up a high pick for a quarterback that, without San Francisco’s great coaching staff and great supporting cast, would probably not be a whole lot better than he was in 2009 and 2010.

Sure, last off-season was a better quarterback draft, but there were also more quarterback needy teams. Teams like Miami and Seattle have since found guys to satisfy their need at the quarterback position, while very few new teams became quarterback needy. The Cardinals are one of those as they seem interested in giving up on Kevin Kolb, but they were never a realistic destination for Smith because they play in the 49ers’ division. The other team is the Bills, but they seem to be much more interested in going the young quarterback route after finally acknowledging that Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the long term solution.

The Jets and Jaguars remain either uninterested (Jaguars) or financially unable (Jets) to find an upgrade for their current quarterback. With the Cardinals not being a realistic suitor, the only realistic destinations for Smith were Kansas City and Cleveland. Other teams might have expressed interest, but I don’t see why a team ended up giving up significantly more than a mid-round pick to pay a guy that teams weren’t lining up to pay last off-season. The 49ers’ haul in this deal is the 34th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft and a conditional mid round pick in 2014.

I like the fit of Smith in Kansas City, a lot. First, Andy Reid’s west coast offense plays much more to the strengths of the weak armed Smith than the downfield throw based offenses of Norv Turner in Cleveland and Bruce Arians in Arizona. Second, the Chiefs needed a quarterback upgrade probably more than any other team in the NFL and this was an awful off-season for that to be the case.

This is a talented team. People laughed when it was announced that they had 5 Pro-Bowlers, but they do have a lot of Pro-Bowl caliber players. Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are among the two best bookend pass rushers in the NFL. Brandon Flowers is at least a top-10 cornerback in the NFL, maybe top-5. Derrick Johnson is one of the best middle linebackers and Jamaal Charles one of the best running backs. Jon Asamoah is one of the league’s best young interior linemen and don’t forget about left tackle Branden Albert and wide receiver Dwayne Bowe. Both are among the top free agents at their respective positions this off-season even though both are loaded positions in this free agency class. At least one of those two should be back in 2013.

If the NFL were a “who has the most good players” contest, the Chiefs would be up there among the best in the NFL, but it’s not. It’s a team game and a quarterback based league and when you’re as poorly coached and poorly quarterbacked as the Chiefs were in 2013 and lose the turnover battle at a near record rate (-24), you’re not going to win a lot of games.

Andy Reid fixes the Head Coach thing and will be good for Alex Smith. He’s not Jim Harbaugh, but for all of his flaws, he’s always been great with quarterbacks. He was able to trade Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, and AJ Feeley for a 2nd rounder each and none of the three did anything even remotely positive for their next team after being traded. Meanwhile, he turned Michael Vick from aging jail bum to a legitimate starting quarterback until last year when age just caught up too much.

Alex Smith stabilizes the quarterback situation and should stabilize their turnover situation (something that generally stabilizes in the long run anyway). The key word is stabilizes. I don’t think Alex Smith is a long term solution. He’s a two year stopgap for a quarterback that the Chiefs hopefully draft in stronger quarterback classes in 2014 or 2015. The Chiefs can make the playoffs this year. The AFC sucks and they have enough talent with the quarterback position stabilized to win 9 or 10 games against a last place schedule in the inferior AFC.

However, if they ever get to the playoffs, Alex Smith will be the limiting factor like he was in San Francisco. Alex Smith is not a franchise quarterback. He’s a stopgap that can win you a Super Bowl if absolutely everything is right and I mean everything like it was in San Francisco, from their league’s #1 scoring defense, to the league’s best top to bottom coaching staff, to all the offensive supporting talent on the offensive line, in the running game, and even in the receiving game.

The Chiefs can make the playoffs with him just like they made the playoffs in 2010 with Matt Cassel. They can follow that model, conservative offensive, good running game, good defense, win the turnover battle, easy schedule. But like with Matt Cassel in 2010, he wouldn’t deserve most of the credit because all that will prove is that Alex Smith is a tremendous upgrade over Brady Quinn and the 2012 version of Matt Cassel and considering those two combined to turn it over 23 times to 8 touchdowns last year, that’s not saying much.

Expect Smith’s numbers to be improved over his 60% completion percentage, 6.6 YPA, and 32 touchdowns to 22 interceptions from 2009 to 2010, but not drastically. The real danger is if the Chiefs do what they did after the 2010 season with Cassel, give him too much credit, and put all of their faith in him going forward. Cassel was not the reason they had success in 2010 and if the Chiefs realized that they could have had either Andy Dalton or Colin Kaepernick with their late first round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.

The Chiefs can have success in 2013 with Alex Smith, but it’s important they don’t repeat the same mistake. The 2014 quarterback class is deep enough that the Chiefs can draft a franchise quarterback in the 15 to 22 range and Smith will allow them to ease that quarterback along like the 49ers did with Kaepernick. But he’s not a franchise quarterback and for that reason, as good as the fit is, they overpaid.

Grade: C

Trade for 49ers: This one is much more straight forward. The 49ers weren’t using Alex Smith. While he’s probably top-20 NFL quarterback, he was clearly the 2nd best quarterback on the 49ers’ roster and while it’s nice to have an insurance policy like Smith, at 8.5 million, Smith just wasn’t worth it to the 49ers. And that’s before you even get into the possibility of a quarterback controversy arising the moment Kaepernick has a bad game. It’s just not worth it. If the 49ers had been unable to trade Smith, they probably just would have cut him. That’s not completely realistic. There was a market for him, but getting back a high 2nd rounder and a future mid round pick is a great haul. It’s not quite the Bengals getting a 1st and a 2nd for Carson Palmer, but it’s up there.

In addition to the picks they get in this deal, this trade gives the 49ers tremendous financial freedom. They are expected, once compensatory picks are in, to have 15 picks in the 2013 NFL Draft and I don’t think they have space on their roster for much more than half of those guys. They’ll make some moves. Ordinarily, trading up would be an option, but this is an awful draft class in terms of elite talent. Top-10 picks aren’t going to be worth what they usually are.

So the obvious other option is trading for a big time veteran like Percy Harvin or Darrelle Revis. Adding one of those two could hurt their ability to extend all of their young talent in the future, but when you’re in the position the 49ers are right now, I say you make it work under the cap for the next 2 years and figure out the rest later. Because of this trade, they have the draft picks and financial freedom to get that done and that’s worth so much more than Alex Smith would have been to them.

Grade: A

What this means for the NFL Draft: The most obvious thing it means is that Geno Smith is no longer a candidate for the first overall pick. The likelihood of him being that pick was dwindling in the days leading up to this trade, but that was just in expectation of this move being made. I still argue that if the Chiefs had been sitting there on draft day without a quarterback, they would have had to take Smith. While this is a poor quarterback class and Smith is not worth the #1 pick, their other option would have been taking a quarterback in the 2nd round. Despite recent successes of Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, and Russell Wilson, 2nd day quarterbacks becoming starters is incredibly rare and I think given the nature of this quarterback class, it’s going to be close to impossible this year.

Given what the Chiefs gave up for Smith, it’s also unlikely they use a high pick on a quarterback at all. For one, they don’t have a 2nd rounder so using their 3rd rounder on a quarterback when they have other pressing needs just wouldn’t make sense. Two, Smith is their starter this year. They believe in him. Any quarterback they draft will be a pure backup and I can’t see them taking one until the 4th, probably the 5th round. That will need to bring in another quarterback considering the only other one on their roster aside from the soon to be released Matt Cassel is Ricky Stanzi, who has never taken an NFL snap and couldn’t even get on the field behind the quarterback’s terrible quarterbacks last year. However, they won’t use a premium pick on one until 2014 at the earliest.

Luke Joeckel becomes the obvious choice at #1. He’s the consensus top talent in this draft class, but remember, the Chiefs can still re-sign Branden Albert. If they do that, they could still take Joeckel, but an offensive lineman is not worth the first pick unless it’s a left tackle and since Joeckel would either be playing another position or displacing someone who is already a strong left tackle, I don’t think he’d be worth that pick.

The Chiefs will try like crazy to move down and they could entice a team like Philadelphia to move up for Joeckel, but as I just said, this is a bad year for elite talent so I don’t expect much wheeling and dealing in the top-10, certainly not like last year. If Albert is re-signed, a defensive lineman like Sharrif Floyd or (if healthy) Star Lotulelei makes a lot of sense, as could a cornerback like DeMarcus Milliner. A cornerback hasn’t gone in the top-4 since 1997, but if it’s going to happen, at makes sense that it would happen in a draft like this.

As for the 49ers, they have a lot of picks and not a lot of needs and even if they trade for Harvin or Revis, that will remain the case. As everything currently stands, Tavon Austin makes a ton of sense for them at 31 if he’s still available. With Randy Moss being a free agent and Mario Manningham tearing his ACL, all they are left with at wide receiver behind Michael Crabtree is AJ Jenkins. While they still believe in the future of the 2012 1st round pick, he’s inexperienced and they need depth. Austin would be a perfect fit in their offense based on speed, deception, and misdirection.

Other draft needs include a young defensive lineman. Isaac Sopoaga and Justin Smith are both over 30 and the former is a free agent this off-season, with the latter being a free agent next off-season. They may need a tight end if Delanie Walker leaves as a free agent and a safety if Dashon Goldson leaves as a free agent. Cornerback depth is needed as Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown could both not be back with the team in 2014, Rogers as a cap casualty and Brown as a free agent.

As good as their offensive line is, Jonathan Goodwin at center will be in a contract year in 2013, his age 35 season and they don’t have an obvious successor. He might not even be back next season, owed 3.7 million, though his level of play last season should be enough to save his roster spot. Also expect them to use a mid-round pick on a younger, cheaper backup quarterback who fits their scheme better, someone like EJ Manuel, Matt Scott, or Zac Dysert. The only other quarterback on their roster right now is Scott Tolzien, who completely lacks experience and mobility. Harbaugh’s former quarterback in San Diego, Josh Johnson, could be another option as a mobile backup quarterback.

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San Francisco 49ers 2013 Needs

stevenlourie 49ers

A lot is being made about the 4th and goal non-holding call by the referees that essentially ended the game. I don’t think it was necessarily a bad call. It was a borderline call and either team would have had a beef depending on the outcome of the call. Obviously it’s not the way you want a Super Bowl to be decided, but I don’t have an issue with it. At least the refs were consistent. They pretty much swallowed their whistles all game and let the players play so that call went right along with that. That did benefit the Ravens who were being more physical and aggressive (Cary Williams bumped an official and didn’t get tossed), which could lead to conspiracy theories (between this game and all the calls the Ravens got against the Broncos, maybe the NFL wanted to see media darling Ray Lewis go out on top). Still, I have no issue with that particular call.

However, one thing I will say is that it’s important not to judge Kaepernick’s performance on the basis on that call (ie: if the call had gone in the 49ers’ favor and the 49ers had won, Kaepernick is a hero, but since it didn’t, he is a goat). Kaepernick played well enough to win. He went 16 of 28 for 308 yards, a touchdown and an interception and added 62 yards and another score on the ground. It’s a team sport. He doesn’t play defense. He doesn’t play special teams. He didn’t fumble (LaMichael James). He didn’t drop at least 74 yards worth of passes nor did he not play the ball on the one interception he threw (Randy Moss). He led the 49ers to 3 touchdowns and 3 field goals. It’s hard to put this one on him and Jim Harbaugh definitely made the right move going to him.

Not only was it the right long term move (paying Kaepernick 740K in his age 26 season in 2013 is much better than paying Alex Smith 8.5 million in his age 29 season, plus they can probably get a day two pick for Alex Smith), but they wouldn’t have been where they got to without Kaepernick. Alex Smith probably wouldn’t have beaten the Patriots in New England in a game that the Patriots threw up 34 and Alex Smith probably wouldn’t have come back in that first Rams’ game to get a tie. That would have left them at 10-6 and even if they would have still made the playoffs via a tiebreaker over Chicago, they would have been the 6 seed and had a much tougher road to the Super Bowl and with a much more limited quarterback.

With Kaepernick at quarterback, the future is bright for the 49ers. 19 of 22 starters are under contract for the 49ers in 2013 and only three will be older than 30. However, no team has gone from losing the Super Bowl to winning the Super Bowl since the 1972 Dolphins so, like the 2012 Patriots, the 2013 49ers will have 40+ years of history working against them. It’s really hard to play that many games, come that close, and then come back the next year and win it all. No team has done it with a 16 game regular season schedule. It’s too physically and mentally exhausting. No team since the 1993 Bills has even gone back to the Super Bowl and that was in a joke of an AFC back then. The NFC is loaded now.

The other concern is Justin Smith. He’s one of those 3 starters over 30 as he turns 34 in September. He tore his triceps against the Patriots week 15 and even though he only missed 10 quarters, he wasn’t the same when he returned and it was obvious. Aldon Smith recorded just one sack in his final 6 games without a healthy Justin Smith, after 20 in his first 13, and with a lack of a pass rush, their secondary, which actually ranked 2nd in the NFL in YPA, was exposed.

They allowed 25.2 points per game in those 6 games (excluding return touchdowns). Sure, they faced a tough batch of quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Joe Flacco), but Super Bowl caliber defenses should be able to limit those guys. The 49ers’ defense wasn’t. Smith should be healthy for the 2013 season, but how much longer can he be effective and who steps up if he can’t? Can Aldon Smith learn to beat double teams? Harbaugh definitely has this team in the right direction, but they have questions.

Safety

Dashon Goldson is a free agent. The 49ers franchised him last off-season, unwilling to commit to him long term based off of one high interception total, but this year he proved that he was much more than interceptions, picking off just 3 passes, but playing much better overall and grading out among the league’s best safeties on ProFootballFocus. He made the Pro-Bowl for the 2nd straight time in his career and rightfully so this time. Retaining him will be a priority of the 49ers’ off-season and, if they can’t, they’ll probably have to replace him externally.

Meanwhile, Donte Whitner also made the Pro-Bowl, but only by association. He really didn’t play that well and could be upgraded (he allowed two touchdowns in the Super Bowl alone). There was talk before the season of only using him in base packages, primarily as a run stopper. Heading into his contract year in 2013, the 49ers could bring in a 3rd safety to compete with him, even if Goldson is re-signed. The 49ers use a lot of sub packages anyway so extra defensive back depth is not a bad thing.

Nose Tackle

The 49ers don’t use a traditional 3-4 nose tackle that often. “Starting” nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga played on just 393 of 1280 possible defensive snaps for the team this season and he played pretty poorly as well. Heading into age 32 season, he sounds unlikely to be retained so the 49ers will need someone to play his snaps as purely a base package run stuffer, at the very least.

Tight End

Backup tight end Delanie Walker is a free agent. He does some nice things, but he also had the worst drop rate in the NFL this season, dropping 11 of 48targets, and only catching 26 of them. The 49ers love using two tight ends so the backup tight end is actually kind of a starter for this team. Walker played on 713 of 1229 possible offensive snaps. Given that, they could attempt to replace him with a starting caliber player. Without a ton of huge needs, a tight end like Zach Ertz could be an option for the 49ers’ at the end of the 1st round.

Center

The 49ers have most of their starters under contract for 2013 and most of them are pretty young too, which is a great spot to be in. However, center Jonathan Goodwin will be in a contract year in 2013, his age 34 season and I don’t know if the 49ers have a successor on their roster. Goodwin still played well last season on an overall incredible offensive line, but they could use a mid-round selection on a developmental center.

3-4 Defensive End

The player they bring in to play Sopoaga’s snaps could also provide some depth at 3-4 defensive end if he’s versatile enough. They probably will want to limit Justin Smith’s snaps a little bit as he gets older and they don’t really have good depth here. Before getting hurt against New England, Smith sat out just 56 snaps in 13 games and once he returned, he sat out just 20 snaps in 3 games despite playing with a torn triceps. He’ll also be a 34 year old in a contract year in 2013. Depth is needed, but a long term successor could also be looked at. Look for them to bring in at least one, maybe two young defensive linemen this off-season.

Rush Linebacker

Here’s another position where they completely lack depth. Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks are great outside linebackers in the 49ers’ 3-4 scheme, but if either of them were to get hurt, they’d be in serious trouble. They clearly don’t trust their depth as reserves played a combined 78 snaps for them at that position this year. They don’t have very many pressing needs, so they can once again use their early picks on depth and they desperately need depth at that position for insurance and to give those two a little bit more of a breather. Parys Haralson is technically still on the roster, but owed 2.57 million in 2013 after missing an entire year with a torn triceps, they probably won’t see it worth it to bring him back purely as a depth player.

Wide Receiver

After tearing his ACL in December, Mario Manningham’s status for 2013 is definitely up in the air. Owed a non-guaranteed 3.85 million in 2013, the 49ers may decide it’s better to just cut him than to deal with the headache. A half year of Manningham is not worth that much money. Randy Moss is also a free agent and he’s heading into his age 36 season anyway. He may not be welcomed back. They still have high hopes for AJ Jenkins even though he didn’t see the field much as a rookie, but they could use some more depth here.

Cornerback

This isn’t an overreaction to Chris Culliver’s horrible Super Bowl (and Super Bowl week). He played solid overall this year, but the 49ers use a lot of sub packages, so extra defensive back depth is not a bad thing. Perrish Cox really struggled when he did see the field this season. Besides, Carlos Rogers turns 32 in July. He should be safe for 2013, but owed 13.5 million in 2014 and 2015 combined, he might only have one more year on the roster. Cornerbacks take a while to develop anyway so they could use a mid-round selection on a developmental cornerback and ease him in.

Kicker

David Akers is coming off a miserable year, hitting just 33 of 47 field goals, including just 9 of 19 from 40+. 2013 will be his age 39 season so this is probably the end of his ride. The 49ers will need to bring in a new kicker this off-season.

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Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers: Super Bowl XLVII Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 49ers, Ravens, Super Bowl XLVII Pick

I did a Super Bowl preview last week, which can be read here, and now I’m going to do an actual Super Bowl pick. For those of you who don’t want to read the whole preview now, here’s a little bit of a summary. The 49ers have been arguably the best team in the NFL throughout the entire season and certainly since Kaepernick took over midseason. However, the Ravens have played on the 49ers’ level over the past month, en route to the Super Bowl.

The Ravens are peaking at the right time. The 49ers have never really had a peak. They’ve been consistently very solid. That’s what makes this game so tough to pick. A month ago, I would have picked the 49ers to win easily, maybe even by double digits, but a lot of changed since then. Jim Caldwell has this offense clicking. Joe Flacco is on fire, thanks to part to Jim Caldwell and an improved offensive line. And the defense has played incredibly well due to Ray Lewis’ on the field leadership. I’ve gone back and forth with this one, so I’m going to put the argument for both teams before I make a final pick.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have a lot of history on their side. Underdogs have covered 8 of the last 11 Super Bowls, while the lower seed (if applicable) is 1-12 ATS in the Super Bowl since 1996. Teams that played in the Wild Card round are 7-0 ATS in the Super Bowl since 2002. There’s a simple explanation for that. In order to make it to the Super Bowl as a lower seeded underdog out of Wild Card weekend, you have to play really, really well. Teams like that tend to have a harder road to the Super Bowl than teams like the 49ers. They typically play more games, go on the road more often, and play higher seeds. As a result, they seem to be better prepared for the Super Bowl.

All of those are the case with the Ravens. They’ve played three games to the 49ers’ two. They’ve played two road games to the 49ers’ one. And they’ve been underdogs twice (touchdown plus underdogs in fact), while the 49ers have yet to be underdogs. In order to get to this point, they’ve had to play better than the 49ers have and that seems to be a good predictor of Super Bowl.

An example of how they’ve played better recently than the 49ers is defensively. The 49ers had the better regular season defense, ranking 2nd in the NFL in points allowed, allowing 71 fewer than the 12th ranked Ravens. However, dating back to their week 15 game against the Patriots, they’ve allowed 24.8 points per game defensively (excluding return touchdowns), coinciding with Justin Smith’s injury and Aldon Smith’s definitely related sack drought.

They aren’t getting much pressure on the quarterback and, while their secondary ranked 2nd in the NFL in YPA this season, good quarterbacks who get time can throw on them. This isn’t 10 years ago when you could play good pass defense without getting pressure. It’s tough for defensive backs to win one on one for an extended period of time with all the new rules that have come into play.

They’ve played a tough batch of quarterbacks in those 5 games, including Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan, but Joe Flacco is certainly in that group somewhere. The Ravens’ defense, meanwhile, has allowed 14.3 points per game in their last 4 (excluding return touchdowns and a week 17 game in which their starters didn’t play). They’ve seen their fair share of tough quarterbacks as well, Eli Manning, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and last week they held Tom Brady to 13, a quarterback who led his team to 34 points (despite 4 turnovers) against the 49ers in an eventual losing effort in that aforementioned week 15 game. If you compare how these teams looked against the only common opponent they’ve had recently, Baltimore clearly looks like the better team.

There’s also the whole story line factor with them: how they have come this far despite tragedy (death of Art Modell, Torrey Smith’s brother), injury (Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs missed significant time, Lardarius Webb is out, while Ed Reed and Haloti Ngata have played through injuries), and struggles (they closed the season losing 4 of 5). There’s nothing scientific about this, but teams with the better story seem like they more often win this game.

San Francisco 49ers

On the other hand, while on paper it appears the Ravens have had to play better in the playoffs to get here, consider that the 49ers are coming from the vastly superior conference. Not a single AFC divisional winner beat an NFC playoff team this year (0-6). In fact, those 4 teams are a combined 8-8 against the NFC this year, as opposed to 39-9 against AFC teams. Overall, the AFC went 25-39 against the NFC this year. The NFC has been better for the last few years and has won 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls. Beating the Broncos and Patriots on the road is impressive, but beating Atlanta in Atlanta and beating the Packers in San Francisco isn’t an easy path either. It’s not like last year when the Patriots just had to play the Broncos and Ravens at home.

Plus, while the Ravens are an underdog, they are a publicly backed underdog. This means two things. One, you’re not getting any line value with them really. They opened at +5, but so much action drove it down to +3.5. Two, I love fading publicly backed underdogs. Fading the public in general is smart when you need a tiebreaker between two sides because the public always loses money in the long run, but I especially like fading public underdogs because it creates a slighted favorite effect. Whenever everyone predicts an upset, it usually doesn’t happen (see Colts over Ravens, Bengals over Texans, Packers over 49ers, etc).

There’s a reason they’ve been favored. The Ravens may be playing better football right now (though that’s debatable when you consider the conferences these two teams come from), but there’s something to be said for the 49ers’ season long play. If they win this Super Bowl, there’s no debating they were this season’s best team, while if the Ravens win, you could still make arguments for teams like the Broncos, Patriots, and 49ers as the NFL’s best team based on their entire body of work. I know this isn’t the BCS. Championships aren’t decided like that and if the Ravens win, there’s no denying they’ll have won the Super Bowl, but you could argue that any of those 3 aforementioned teams had better overall years, especially the 49ers, regardless of the outcome of this game. They just didn’t (or hypothetically won’t have) when it really mattered.

Coming into the post-season, I had the 49ers behind the Packers, Broncos, and Patriots because I felt that in a post-season filled with inexperienced quarterbacks, the three who had won Super Bowls would have an obvious advantage. I questioned Kaepernick’s ability to win on the big stage, coming in with 7 regular season starts and I also questioned how their defense would play with Justin Smith limited. I was right about the latter, but definitely wrong about the former, which was probably the more important one.

In terms of pure talent, the 49ers had the best team this season. They led the NFL in Pro-Bowlers and if fans judgment isn’t your thing, they also led the NFL in All-Pros, as decided by writers, and had the top cumulative team rating on ProFootballFocus. Football is more than a contest of who has the most good players, obviously, as the Chiefs and their 6 Pro-Bowlers won 2 games. It’s a team game, but since the 49ers are in the Super Bowl, it’s safe to say they’re more than just a collection of great players. They’re a very, very good team, especially since Colin Kaepernick took over at quarterback.

The Verdict

This is tough. On paper, the 49ers are have clearly been the better team this season, but games aren’t played on paper. On paper, the Broncos and Patriots were clearly better teams than the Ravens too and they both lost because the Ravens have been playing at a much higher level over the past month and a half. I like to think that an elite team from the superior NFC conference would have better luck, which is why I’m ultimately taking the 49ers, but it’s definitely no sure thing. The game will probably come down to turnover margin, which is tough to predict. I am making this a significant play because it’s the Super Bowl, but any other week, this would be a 1 or 2 unit insignificant play.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against spread: San Francisco -3.5 (-110) 3 units

Prop Bets

Ravens win by 1-6 +420 2 units

49ers win by 1-6 +310 2 units

I’ve done this in each of the past two years and it’s worked out. Basically, if the Ravens win by 1-6, you win +420 and lose -100, so +320. If the 49ers do so, you win +320 and lose -100, so +220. Essentially, you’re getting +270 will this game by decided by 6 or fewer points. 7 of the last 11 Super Bowls have been decided by 6 or less and considering how hard of a time I had picking between these two teams, I say there’s a good chance this happens again.

Both teams won’t make a field goal longer than 33.5 yards -140 2 units

It sounds weird, but both teams have only done so in 10 of 46 Super Bowls. Also, 49er kicker David Akers has hit from 34+ in just 5 of his last 10 games.

Colin Kaepernick less than 43.5 rushing yards +130 1 unit

Don’t like this one was much as the others, but I feel like most people are probably going to take the over because they remember Kaepernick’s ridiculous game against Green Bay. I love fading the public and Kaepernick has only gone over this total in 3 of 9 starts. I know he could go over this at any point with one run, which is why it’s only one unit, but I do like this one.

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Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers: Super Bowl Preview

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 49ers, Ravens, Super Bowl XLVII Pick

Colin Kaepernick vs. Joe Flacco. That’s our Super Bowl quarterback matchup. In the era of the quarterback, that seems inconceivable. A guy with 9 career starts and…well Joe Flacco. In the last 20 years, there’s been one quarterback to win a Super Bowl without first making a Pro-Bowl and that was Eli Manning (version one), who made it the very next year. Even “game managers” like Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson first made a Pro-Bowl. Neither ever really posted eye popping numbers, but no one really did back then. Pro-Bowl voting is obviously flawed, but the general public usually does a good job of picking the correct quarterbacks to go to Hawaii, considering how prominent the position and its stats are.

However, this year, we will have a 2nd quarterback win the Super Bowl without making a Pro-Bowl as neither Joe Flacco nor Colin Kaepernick has ever been elected to the Pro-Bowl and I don’t think either have ever deserved it. Kaepernick is playing great now, but he’s not even in his first full year as a starter, and while Flacco has generally been solid, but he’s easily overshadowed by many other quarterbacks in his 5 years in the league. Let’s take a look at why that happened and what each team winning the Super Bowl would, for lack of a better word, “mean” for historical purposes.

San Francisco 49ers

Of the two teams making the Super Bowl, this is obviously the least surprising. The 49ers earned a 1st round bye for the 2nd year in a row and were favored in each of their two playoff games up to this point, including by 4.5 on the road in Atlanta. I had the 49ers as a possible exception to the Pro-Bowl/Super Bowl “rule” heading into the playoffs and I’m not surprised at all they made it this far.

There are two reasons for that. One, while Kaepernick has never made a Pro-Bowl and never deserved to make a Pro-Bowl, the reasons for that aren’t lack of production and elite quarterback play. It’s merely how long he’s been around. Kaepernick took over for the 49ers at quarterback more than halfway into the season, starting his first game week 11, and while he’s played at a Pro-Bowl level ever since, it has only been 9 games, including just 7 regular season games. That doesn’t earn players a trip to the Pro-Bowl, no matter how you play in those 7 games.

The 2nd reason is just how good this supporting cast is. They led the NFL in All-Pros and Pro-Bowlers and there is not a single weakness on this roster. They run the football among the best in the league, with Frank Gore leading the way, Colin Kaepernick scrambling or rolling out when applicable, and LaMichael James mixed in here and there.

They have by far the best run blocking offensive line in football and they hold their own in pass protection as well. While it’s true that they’ve allowed 41 sacks this year, 9th in the NFL, that’s more on Jim Harbaugh’s instance that quarterbacks wrap up and take the sack when they know they’ve lost, instead of trying to force it out.

In terms of pass block efficiency, which also takes into account hits and hurries, the 49ers rank a middle of the pack 17th. It’s just that Alex Smith was “worst” in the NFL, taking a sack on 33.3% of pressured drop backs. Kaepernick is much better in that regard because of his mobility, however, and since he took over, he’s taken just 18 sacks in 9 games.

Along with their offensive line and running game, they have two talented receivers in Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis. Davis was invisible on the stat sheet up until last week, but that was just because Kaepernick was throwing so often to Crabtree, who was playing the best football of his career. They don’t pass the ball enough for both receivers to put up huge numbers. Even though he wasn’t appearing much on the stat sheet, Davis is still among the best blocking tight ends in the NFL.

Defensively, you know the story. They’ve had the league’s #2 scoring defense in each of the last 2 seasons, though they did allow 3 more points per game in doing so this year than last year. Their front 7 is probably the best in football. All 4 of their linebackers are amongst the best in football at their respective positions, including Ahmad Brooks, who doesn’t post eye popping sack numbers, but is among the most consistent in the NFL at getting pressure and is also arguably one of the best run stuffing linebackers in the NFL. And then, of course, there’s Justin Smith.

If there’s one flaw on this defense, it’s that you can throw on them. Their secondary played well this season, ranking 2nd in the league in YPA allowed, but we’ve seen several elite quarterbacks throw on them before and we’ve also seen some of the not quite elite guys throw on them as well lately. They haven’t been getting quite the kind of pressure they normally get on the quarterback with Justin Smith not playing 100%.

Aldon Smith has kind of faded away with Justin not commanding as many double teams in front of him and if you get time, you can throw on this secondary. It just hasn’t been an issue yet because of how well Kaepernick is playing, but they have allowed 24.8 points per game over their past 5, coinciding with Smith’s injury, not including a Kaepernick pick 6 and a special teams touchdown allowed to Seattle. They’ve played a tough batch of quarterbacks in those 5 games, including Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan, but Joe Flacco is certainly in that group somewhere. Still, this is the best supporting cast in football and that’s one of the biggest reasons why they are here, despite a lack of a “traditional” Pro-Bowl quarterback.

Baltimore Ravens

While the 49ers being here isn’t surprising in the least, this is about the exact opposite. This was not a good regular season team. That’s just a fact. They went 10-6, which was tied for the worst record among playoff teams, and they easily could have been 8-8 if Ben Roethlisberger (or even Byron Leftwich) hadn’t gotten hurt and Ray Rice hadn’t converted 4th and 29.

They won a ridiculous 5 games by a field goal or less, now up to 6 after an overtime victory over the Broncos, and they outgained opponents by 20 yards in the regular season. They lost to Charlie Batch at home and fired their offensive coordinator in the same 2 week span. I don’t know this for a fact, but I’m willing to bet that no team has ever made the Super Bowl after doing that, at least until now.

The NFL is no stranger to seeing less than stellar regular season teams go all the way, as the 2007 Giants, 2010 Packers, and 2011 Giants have all recently won Super Bowls with similar or worse records to the 2012 Ravens. However, when those teams have done it, we’ve always been able to look back at how they ended their regular season and say “that’s why they won, they had momentum.”

Unlike those 3 teams, who all had to fight to get into the playoffs and peaked at the right time because of it, the Ravens started this season 9-2, and a fraudulent 9-2 at that, doing it with smoke and mirrors and pulling out several crazy close victories. They appeared to peak early and proof right everyone who called that 9-2 record a fraud, losing 4 of their next 5 games, including two by exactly 3 points after starting 5-0 in games decided by 3 or less.

They weren’t hot heading into the post-season. They were the exact opposite. They tripped backwards into the playoffs. I guess you can point to a 33-14 week 16 victory over the Giants as a “sign of things to come,” but it was reasonable to believe that any momentum they had coming out of that game was lost when they rested starters the following week, in an eventual loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.

All of this is fact. They weren’t a good regular season team. So what happened? Well, I think the takeaway from this whole thing is that sometimes less than stellar regular season teams get into the playoffs and it’s a completely new season. They started out with a home win over the overrated Colts, but after back-to-back road wins in Denver and New England as underdog of more than a touchdown, they’re clearly a much improved team.

Ray Lewis’ return obviously has a lot to do with that. Lewis himself isn’t even playing that well. Sure, he leads the post-season with 44 tackles in 3 games, which sounds like he’s playing well, but when you consider that just 9 of those tackles have gone for a “stop,” it’s not so impressive (a stop is defined as a tackle within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage on 1st down, 6 yards on 2nd down, and the full distance on 3rd or 4th). He’s also had significant issues in coverage, allowing 15 catches on 19 attempts for 178 yards.

However, it’s Lewis’ intangible effect. He’s the signal caller and the emotional leader. That’s why this defense is playing so well. 12th in the NFL in opponents’ scoring in the regular season, the Ravens have allowed 43 points (excluding 2 special teams touchdowns) in 3 games, despite facing Andrew Luck, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning and playing a double overtime game. Their forcing turnovers and tightening up in the red zone and they just made Tom Brady look as confused on a football field as I’ve seen him in years. Their defense is playing better than the 49ers’ right now.

But it hasn’t just been a defensive effort. They wouldn’t have gotten this far if it was. They’ve had good defenses before, but they still lost twice in the AFC Championship from 2008-2011. The limiting factor in those years was Joe Flacco. Despite going 5-4 in the post-season in his first 4 seasons in the league, breaking several NFL records, Joe Flacco never really had played well. It was always the defense. Coming into this post-season, Flacco had completed 134 of 247 (54.2%) for 1532 yards (6.2 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions in his post-season career and had just 2 games of 200+ yards passing. He has 3 already this year and has completed 51 of 93 (54.8%) for 853 yards (9.2 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and not a single interception.

Already I mentioned the thing about Pro-Bowls and Super Bowls. Joe Flacco has never made a Pro-Bowl and he has never deserved to make a Pro-Bowl, but none of that matters because right now he is playing like a Pro-Bowl quarterback. Lots of credit should be given to Joe Flacco, but lots of credit also has to be given to new offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell, who is calling plays at the NFL level for the first time in his life, and credit has to be given to the Ravens for making the switch at offensive coordinator and canning Cam Cameron. That might have been the turning point of their season.

While the 49ers made a ballsy move to bench Alex Smith, the Ravens did a similar thing at offensive coordinator and like the Smith/Kaepernick switch, it’s a big part of the reason why they’re here. We have a Super Bowl matchup between a team that has benched their starting quarterback and a team that has fired their offensive coordinator this season. Normally those are white flags. These two teams are here because of those moves.

If they were playing like they were 4 weeks ago, the Ravens wouldn’t have a chance against the 49ers on a neutral field. However, the Ravens have become a very complete team and dangerous team in the post-season and, for that reason, they will be able to compete with the 49ers, who are the NFL’s most complete team in general. I’ll have an actual pick closer to the game.

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San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons: NFC Conference Championship

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 3 NFL Picks, 49ers, Falcons

I’m going to do New England/Baltimore later in the week, but I had to lock this one in now because this line is ridiculous. Atlanta is 5 point home underdogs. Being a home underdog in the Conference Championship isn’t unheard of. Even being a home underdog as a #1 seed in the Conference Championship isn’t unheard of. But I can’t find a single case where a team was a home underdog by more than 4 points (a key number), regardless of seed (home dogs of 4+ are 7-3 ATS in the playoffs since 1989).

This is the 2nd largest home underdog Matt Ryan has ever been. He was a 6 point home dog last year against the Packers. That Packer team went on to go 15-1. The Falcons were 2.5 point home favorites last week for the Seahawks and won by 2. By the logic of this line, the 49ers are 7 points better than the Seahawks. Uh…didn’t the Seahawks blow the 49ers out a few weeks ago?

I know that was in Seattle and the 49ers didn’t have Justin Smith, but when these teams met midseason in San Francisco and the 49ers were healthy, they were 7.5 point home favorites and won by 7, which suggests that the 49ers are only 5 points better than the Falcons on a neutral field (and this game is in Atlanta). I know the 49ers are an improved team since then, but I think the Seahawks are an even more improved team since then.

I think on a neutral field, the 49ers are about 3 points better than the Seahawks (which would make this a pick em). The odds makers seemed to agree as the Seattle/San Francisco contest hovered around a pick em that week (2.5 point home field adjustment). And now the 49ers are 7 points better than the Seahawks? 3 weeks after getting blown out by them? What? They were barely even 7 points better than them in San Francisco 3 months ago.

I don’t think the odds makers are dumb. In fact, quite the opposite. They know exactly what they’re doing. All the action is on San Francisco this week and I think this line could go even higher and that would be the case. No one is giving the Falcons a chance. The odds makers are setting themselves up for a big payday. They may or may not even help that happen. I’m no conspiracy theorist, but both the Patriots and Broncos had the majority of the borderline calls go against them last week and those were the two most heavily picked teams of the weekend. The odds makers actually had a rough year by their standards. Again, no conspiracy theorist, just stating some facts.

I actually give the Falcons plenty of chance to win. Colin Kaepernick had an amazing game last week, but he won’t have that type of game again. For one thing, I don’t know if anyone will ever have that type of game again. He was posting video game stats. But as well as he played, he was definitely helped by the Packers looking completely confused on defense all game. The 49ers purposely ran very little of the pistol in the final 2 weeks of the season to throw people off the scent for the playoffs and it worked like a charm.

At least last week it did. The Falcons will be better prepared, especially after having just faced a similar style offense the week before. They’ve also faced Cam Newton twice and Robert Griffin once this year. They’ll be as prepared as can be for Kaepernick. Having the personnel to get the job done is a bit of a question, but they won’t be unprepared. And their run defense has been better of late.

You also have to remember that this is still Kaepernick’s first year as a starter. He won last week at home in huge fashion, but now he has to go on the road and play a quarterback that is now 33-6 at home in his career. That’s tough. He may also be a little overconfident after last week. Teams are 3-14 ATS since 2002 after scoring 38 points or more in a postseason game. That includes plenty of veteran quarterbacks. It certainly doesn’t help that Kaepernick is this young.

I don’t love the Falcons to win or anything. But as long as this line is past both the key points of 3 and 4, I’m taking the points for a big play. It’s just not that easy and I mean that in two ways. Playoff football is not as easy as Kaepernick made it look last week and picking games against the spread is not as easy as this game makes it look to a lot of people. This is definitely a trap line. Think of some other playoff games where the public was so convinced one team would win that they put all their money on that team even as the line kept climbing to ridiculous heights. Super Bowl 42 comes to mind, as does Seattle/New Orleans a few years ago.

Atlanta Falcons 24 San Francisco 49ers 23 Upset Pick +185

Pick against spread: Atlanta +5 (-110) 5 units

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers: Divisional Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 2 NFL Picks, 49ers, Packers

This is one of three rematch games this week. It has several obvious differences from Baltimore/Denver and New England/Houston. Both of those games were blowouts. Both of those games were fairly recent. These two teams played way back in week 1 and San Francisco won 30-22. And both of those games are once again expected to be blowouts, as the line on both is huge. This might be the most intriguing game of the weekend.

Because these two teams played so long ago, it’s tough to extrapolate what happened in that game to this one. Green Bay probably was healthier then as they’ve lost right tackle Bryan Bulaga to injury since, but they’re now the healthiest they’ve been in a long while with all 4 of their top receivers healthy at once, as well as defensive keys Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson. In spite of injuries, they have still won 10 of their last 12, including 2 over playoff qualifying Minnesota and an impressive blowout in Houston. Because of all their injuries this season, they’re a deeper team than they were earlier in the year. Key players like Randall Cobb, Sam Shields, and Casey Hayward barely played in the week 1 matchup.

San Francisco is also less healthy than they were week 1. Justin Smith tore his triceps against New England and they’ve really missed him. Justin, not Aldon, is the most irreplaceable defensive player on the 49ers’ defense. He’s the one who draws all the double teams, giving Aldon lots of one on one opportunities, where he’s close to unstoppable.

Among all the top pass rushers in the league, no one saw single blocking as often as Aldon Smith. However, he struggled when he was the one doubled in Justin’s absence, failing to record a single sack. It’s no coincidence that the Patriots scored 34 in the 2nd half against their defense after scoring just 3 in the first half. Justin Smith left early in the 2nd half of that game. They then went on to be blown out by the Seahawks the following week, before struggling against Arizona week 17, allowing the what was just the Cardinals’ 3rd passing touchdown since week 5.

Smith returns this week, but it remains to be seen how effective he can be. He’s a very tough player, but some doctors opined that his injury would take 12 weeks to heal and it’s barely been 4. Of course, because his greatest value is taking on double teams, if the Packers still fear him enough to double team him, his presence in the lineup will be valuable, even as a decoy. If they choose to make Justin prove it first, the 49ers could be in real trouble defensively with their center piece playing hurt. It’s a question mark, but the situation obviously favors the Packers and their elite offense.

The Packers may have an elite offense, but their defense certainly didn’t look elite against the 49ers week 1, allowing the 49ers to score 30 points and Alex Smith to complete 20 of 26 for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns. Colin Kaepernick is an upgrade over him, but I wouldn’t be so sure he’ll exceed those numbers or even match them. Smith didn’t make many tough throws. The Packers blew coverages all game, something they didn’t really do the rest of the season. In fact, they were the NFL’s 11th ranked scoring defense and 8th ranked passing defense this season. They may have just not been taking the 49ers seriously in what was clearly a statement game for the 49ers.

They should present Kaepernick with a tough matchup, especially at home in his first NFL start. Quarterbacks are just 4-10 ATS as home favorite making their postseason debut since 2002. If their defense were at full strength, they definitely would have the supporting cast to overcome that, but I don’t know about Smith. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers are three quarterbacks with Super Bowl rings in a postseason where 8 quarterbacks came in without a single playoff win. I think they have a tremendous advantage over everyone else and I fully expect them to make up 3 of the NFL’s final 4. Kaepernick’s inexperience will definitely favor the Packers.

I also think the Packers’ playing last week favors them. Momentum is huge in the playoffs. They have it, just like they did in 2010. In 2011, they came into the playoffs with Rodgers having just 1 win in his last 3 games (he didn’t play week 17) and then he sat another week. This year, I think they’re in a much better position for a deep playoff run.

There are some trends that also favor the Packers. Teams are 52-27 ATS as road dogs since 2002 trying to avenge a same season home loss as favorites. Going off that, Aaron Rodgers is 13-6 ATS as a dog in his career. He’s also only lost to the same team twice in the same season in his career, winning 3 of 4 same season revenge games, ironically losing twice to Brett Favre and the Vikings in 2009. I really like the Packers in this one. I thought about dropping the units because Green Bay is a publicly backed underdog, but I decided against it because I think it’s with good reason. Green Bay is my pick of the week.

Green Bay Packers 27 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against spread: Green Bay +3 (-110) 5 units

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