Bills

Buffalo Bills trade MLB Kiko Alonso to Philadelphia Eagles for RB LeSean McCoy

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bills, Eagles, Uncategorized

Trade for Eagles: I’m probably going against the grain with this, but I love this deal. People are wondering who will replace McCoy. Well, it’s a deep running back draft and a deep running back free agency class. It’s going to be tough to find someone to replace McCoy’s 2013 production, when he rushed for 1607 yards and 9 touchdowns on 314 carries (5.12 YPC) and added 52 catches for 539 yards and another two touchdowns. It’s not going to be that tough to find someone to replace McCoy’s 2014 production, when he rushed for 1319 yards and 5 touchdowns on 312 carries (4.23 YPC) and added just 28 catches for 155 yards.

McCoy could bounce back in 2015, but there’s evidence to suggest he won’t. He’s only graded out higher than 10th among running backs on Pro Football Focus once in 6 years in the league (2013) and he’s going into his age 27 season with 1761 touches at a position that doesn’t have a long lifespan. He’s a good, not great running back in a league where running backs rarely get the kind of money McCoy is still owed over the next 3 seasons (24.25 million).

Kiko Alonso, meanwhile, is owed just 1.7 million over the next 2 seasons on his rookie deal. Like McCoy, he had a strong 2013 that he didn’t replicate in 2014. Alonso graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked middle linebacker in 2013, but missed all of 2014 with a torn ACL. However, I like his chances of bouncing back more than McCoy because he’s only going into his age 25 season at a position with a much longer lifespan. A torn ACL is hard to recover from, but Alonso suffered that injury back in June of 2014 and has youth on his side.

He’ll be an obvious upgrade over DeMeco Ryans, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 53rd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible in 2013, before missing 8 games with a torn Achilles in 2014. He and Mychal Kendricks will be a strong, young middle linebacker duo for the Eagles inside. The Eagles also will save 6.9 million on the cap by letting Ryans go. Between that and the 8.55 million they saved from trading McCoy, this move saves them about 15 million on the cap (Alonso’s cap number for the Eagles will be about 750K this season). That’s a significant amount for a team that figures to be major players in free agency. This move could allow them to add someone like Devin McCourty to their secondary and have cap room left over.

Grade: A

Trade for Bills: I don’t hate this deal for the Bills as much as I love it for the Eagles. The reason for that is that Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham both broke out as every down linebackers for the Bills in 2014 in Alonso’s absence and they could still re-sign Brandon Spikes, a solid two-down run stopper. However, you still don’t trade a younger, cheaper player for an older, more expensive player, at a position with a shorter careerspan. I would have liked to see the Bills pick up some sort of draft pick in this deal. I’m not sure McCoy would have gotten 24.25 million over 3 years on the open market if he was a free agent this off-season. The Bills are giving up that and a talented young linebacker for him. It’s not a good deal.

Grade: D

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Buffalo Bills 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Bills, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Quarterback

Kyle Orton wasn’t good in 2014, but he was sadly one of the best quarterbacks the Bills have had in the last decade and a half. In the 12 games he started, the Bills moved the chains at a 66.67% rate, which isn’t good, but it was significantly better than the 63.30% rate they moved the chains in the 4 starts that EJ Manuel made. However, Orton retired, ahead of his age 33 season, so the Bills are stuck with just Manuel, who has completed 58.6% of his passes for an average of 6.43 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. The Bills’ options will be limited, especially without a first round pick, but they’ll have to add competition for him this off-season.

Guard

The Bills’ guard play was horrible last season. Erik Pears started on one side, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 76th ranked guard out of 78 eligible. On the other side, Chris Williams, Cyril Richardson, and Kraig Urbik split snaps and all 3 graded out significantly below average. Urbik graded out 53rd on 636 snaps, Richardson 60th on 321 snaps, and Williams struggled mightily on 132 snaps before going down with a back injury. Williams was brought in to be a starter last off-season, but he’s never been a starting caliber player, so he should be a cap casualty. Urbik could be a cap casualty as well (though he’s been better in the past), while Pears is a free agent going into his age 33 season. They need at least one, if not two new starters at the position this off-season.

Offensive Tackle

Guard isn’t the only place on the offensive line where the Bills have problems. Left tackle Cordy Glenn was the only player to play more than 100 snaps for them and grade out above average. Seantrel Henderson started 16 games at right tackle despite being a mere 7th round rookie and it showed, as he graded out 82nd out of 84 eligible offensive tackles. The Bills drafted Cyrus Kouandjio in the 2nd round last year, but he didn’t play a snap, even behind a struggling Henderson, and now there’s talk that he could be moving to guard. Right tackle is still a problem area.

Tight End

Scott Chandler is a decent tight end, but they need more of a pass catching threat from the tight end position. Chandler caught just 47 passes for 497 yards and 3 touchdowns last season, grading out 47th out of 67 eligible overall, and his career best slash line is 53/655/2. #2 tight end Lee Smith is a solid blocker, but doesn’t offer anything in the passing game and he’s also a free agent.

Wide Receiver

No wide receiver for the Bills graded out above average on Pro Football Focus last season. The Bills like Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods for the future, but they could find competition this off-season for slot receiver Chris Hogan. Hogan had 188 career snaps in 3 seasons as an undrafted free agent from the 2011 class coming into 2014 and in 2014, he caught 41 passes for 433 yards on 58 targets (70.7%) and 345 routes run (1.26 yards per route run), while grading out 72nd out of 110 eligible wide receivers.

Outside Linebacker

The Bills are presumably moving back to a 3-4 under Rex Ryan in 2015. This shouldn’t be an issue because they ran this exact scheme in 2013 under former defensive coordinator Doug Marrone, a Rex Ryan disciple. Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes graded out 9th and 14th respectively among 4-3 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus this season, but Hughes is a free agent this off-season and he’ll need to be replaced if he’s not re-signed. Even if he is, their depth is very suspect at the position. Their top reserve in 2014 by snaps played was Manny Lawson, who graded out 48th out of 59 eligible on 348 snaps. He could be a cap casualty this off-season, owed a non-guaranteed 2.35 million in an age 31 season in 2015.

Key Free Agents

DE Jerry Hughes

Jerry Hughes was a bust in Indianapolis as a first round pick in 2010, playing a combined 240 snaps in 2010 and 2011 and then struggling in his first serious action in 2012, grading out 25th out of 34 eligible 3-4 outside linebackers. The Bills acquired him after that season for basically nothing and he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013 and their 14th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2014. There are some concerns about his ability to produce outside of the Bills’ talented front 7, but he answered concerns about his scheme versatility and about him being a one-year wonder with his play this season. He’s a talented, scheme versatile edge rusher who will get a lot of money somewhere this off-season. The Bills will try to bring him back, but he might get more money elsewhere.

S Da’Norris Searcy

Searcy was a 4th round pick by the Bills in 2011 NFL Draft. He played just 511 snaps in his first 2 seasons in 2011 and 2012, but he made 20 starts over the past 2 seasons as a hybrid safety/linebacker. He’s never played more than 753 snaps in a season, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked safety in 2014 (on 666 snaps), so someone will give him starter’s money to be a traditional starting safety for them.

MLB Brandon Spikes

Spikes is only a two down middle linebacker, but he’s very good at what he does. He’s graded out 4th, 22nd, 1st, 1st, and 9th among middle linebackers against the run in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively (2010 was his rookie year after the Patriots drafted him in the 2nd round that year). However, he’s never played more than 742 snaps in a season because of his issues in coverage and he’s never ranked higher than 20th at his position in coverage. I don’t expect the Bills to bring him back because Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham had breakout years in 2014 and Kiko Alonso returns in 2015, but Spikes will get decent money somewhere because he serves a valuable role.

RB CJ Spiller

CJ Spiller, a 2010 1st round pick, had a fantastic 2012 campaign, rushing for 1244 yards and 6 touchdowns on 207 carries (6.01 YPC), with 43 catches for 459 yards and 3 touchdowns. He looked poised for a breakout year in 2013 as a 300+ touch back, but he struggled with injuries over the last 2 seasons (missing 8 games combined and being limited in several others) and he was never a great fit for Doug Marrone and Nathaniel Hackett’s offense. Over the past 2 seasons, he’s rushed for 1233 yards and 2 touchdowns on 280 carries (4.40 YPC), with 52 catches for 310 yards and a touchdown, combined numbers that many people thought he’d be able to surpass in 2013 alone. He hits free agency having never surpassed 207 carries with annual issues in pass protection (grading out below average in 4 of 5 seasons) and coming off the worst season of his career, 300 yards on 78 carries (3.85 YPC) in 9 games. He could be a nice buy low candidate though, as he has a 4.97 YPC average and shows clear first round talent at times. A reunion with former Head Coach Chan Gailey (now offensive coordinator of the Jets) has been rumored and would make a lot of sense. Spiller had his huge 2012 season under Gailey.

G Erik Pears

Erik Pears graded out below average in 3 straight seasons from 2011-2013 as the Bills’ starting right tackle (making 39 starts) so they moved him inside to right guard. The results weren’t good. Pears graded out 76th out of 78 eligible guards. Going into his age 33 season this off-season, Pears will be met by a very cold market. It’s very possible he’s done in the NFL.

Cap Casualty Candidates

OLB Keith Rivers

Keith Rivers struggled on 192 snaps last season, the only Bills linebacker who graded out below average last season. The Bills are stacked at linebacker, even if they don’t bring Brandon Spikes back, with Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham breaking out last year, and Kiko Alonso returning from injury, so there’s no need to keep Rivers at his non-guaranteed 1.7 million dollar salary for 2015. The Bills can save that entire amount on the cap by letting him go this off-season.

G Chris Williams

For some reason, the Bills decided to give a 4-year, 13.5 million dollar deal to Chris Williams last off-season, even though he was Pro Football Focus’ 74th ranked guard out of 81 eligible in 2013. That wasn’t anything new for him. The 14th overall pick by the Bears in 2008 has been a massive bust, struggling at pretty much every position on the offensive line in his career. With the exception of his rookie year, when he played just 16 snaps, he’s never graded out above average on Pro Football Focus. He wasn’t a starter in 2012, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 70th ranked guard out of 82 eligible in 2010 and 60th ranked guard out of 78 eligible in 2011. In 2014, he struggled on 132 snaps before going down for the season with a back injury. Maybe the Bills will admit their mistake and let him go, to save 2.475 million in cash. They’d save just 725K on the cap by doing that, but it would get him off their cap completely for 2016 and he’s not a starting caliber player.

DE Manny Lawson

Manny Lawson was horrible last season at 4-3 defensive end, grading out 48th out of 59 eligible, despite playing just 349 snaps in a reserve role. Even if Jerry Hughes isn’t retained, the Bills could let Lawson go. He’s simply a better player as a non-rush linebacker than he is at 4-3 defensive end and, even if they don’t bring Brandon Spikes back, the Bills are still set in terms of non-rush linebackers with Preston Brown, Nigel Bradham, and Kiko Alonso. Cutting Lawson, ahead of his age 31 season in 2015, would save them 2.35 million in cash and 1.6 million immediately on the cap.

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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Bills, Patriots, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (8-7) at New England Patriots (12-3)

I’m kicking myself for not locking in Buffalo +10.5 before the Bengals/Broncos game. Even when I thought the Broncos were going to win that game and force the Patriots to play their starters week 17, in order to lock up the #1 seed in the AFC, I had Buffalo circled as one of my favorite picks of the week for three reasons. One, there was a huge line movement, with the early line having the Patriots favored by 6.5. That’s a 4 point movement. I love fading huge line movements because they’re almost always overreactions.

That line movement was a result of Buffalo’s loss in Oakland last week, but Kansas City and San Francisco also lost in Oakland. Teams tend to cover off of huge upset losses anyway, going 88-61 ATS since 1989 off of a loss as 6+ point road favorites. On top of that, the Bills are in their 2nd straight road game. This puts them in a good spot. Teams are 113-77 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 96-55 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 196-200 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.29 points per game, as opposed to 276-392 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.19 points per game.

However, the Broncos lost to the Bengals, which made this a meaningless game for the Patriots in the standings and immediately dropped the line to 3.5. Now this game is largely a crapshoot. If the Patriots play their starters a good amount, they should be able to cover, but Bill Belichick is predictably mum on the subject and won’t give anyone any indication of what he’s planning to do this week. This isn’t like Indianapolis/Tennessee, where Chuck Pagano assured the public that he would be playing his starters despite being locked into the #4 seed, in an effort to get his team ready for the playoffs, as he did in 2012 in the same situation, when the Colts ended up beating the Texans and knocking them from the #1 seed to the #3 seed.

However, history suggests that the Patriots will give this their best shot, especially after a disappointing near loss in New York to the Jets last week. The Patriots have never really done the whole “rest your starters” thing week 17 and are 10-2 ATS week 17 since 2002, despite having the #1 seed locked up several times during this week. This game kind of reminds me of 2010, when they were 3.5 point favorites over the 7-8 Dolphins week 17. Brady and the starters played about two and a half quarters, leaving midway through the 3rd with a 31-0 lead in an eventual 38-7 victory and easy cover.

If the Patriots do give this their best shot, this line is way too low and the Patriots should be the right side. The line value would nullify the two situational trends the Bills have in their favor. The sharps seem to agree, as this line has moved from 3.5 to 5 over the past couple days, despite the public being on the underdog. I just can’t be too confident when I don’t know exactly what the Patriots are doing. It’s possible the Patriots play Brady and the offensive line for a half, but rest Julian Edelman (concussion), LeGarrette Blount (shoulder) and Rob Gronkowski (history of injuries). I don’t know.

New England Patriots 24 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against the spread: New England -5

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bills, Raiders, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (8-6) at Oakland Raiders (2-12)

This line shifted from 4.5 to 6 over the past week with the Bills winning at home in upset fashion over the Packers. I love fading huge line movements whenever it makes sense because they’re usually overreactions, especially when I can do so and fade the public at the same time, because the public always loses money in the long run. The public is on Buffalo here in a big way and the line movement is a bit of an overreaction. The Bills won on the scoreboard, but the Packers won the first down battle 21-13 and moved the chains at a 64.71% rate, as opposed to 54.17% for the Bills.

That being said, it’s not quite a big enough line movement for me to be excited about the Raiders this week, even if it is at the key number of 6. The Bills rank 26th on the season in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 65.76% rate, as opposed to 67.74% for their opponents, a differential of -1.98%. Meanwhile, the Raiders rank dead last on the season in that aspect, moving the chains at a 62.95% rate, as opposed to 72.67% for their opponents, a differential of -9.71%. That suggests this line should be right around where it was last week at 4.5. However, this line would have to be a touchdown or more for me to be confident in Oakland.

The Bills are in a bad spot this week, as they have a much tougher game in New England next week.. Favorites of 6 or more are just 47-81 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more since 2002. Even worse, teams are 18-33 ATS since 1989 as road favorites of 4+ before being road underdogs of 4+. The 49ers lost straight up here in Oakland in this exact same spot as 8 point favorites a couple weeks ago, ahead of a much bigger game in Seattle. The 49ers are more talented than the Bills. However, the Raiders aren’t exactly in a great spot with a trip to Denver on deck (though they weren’t against San Francisco either with a trip to Kansas City on deck at that point). Teams are 47-87 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. I’m still going with the Raiders, but, again, I’d need a touchdown to put money on it.

Buffalo Bills 13 Oakland Raiders 10

Pick against the spread: Oakland +6

Confidence: Low

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Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bills, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (10-3) at Buffalo Bills (7-6)

This line started out at 6 at the beginning of the week, but now is done to everything from 4-5.5 depending on where you get it. That’s despite the public being all over Green Bay, which suggests that the sharps are on Buffalo this week. I love fading the public and going with the sharps whenever it makes sense and it certainly does this week, but I do still wish the line was at 6. The Packers haven’t been nearly as good on the road this season as at home, with just one road win by more than 4 points, and they’re facing a reasonable opponent here who could easily play them close, but I’d need at least 6 points to be confident going against Rodgers this week.

Rodgers has been very good no matter where he’s been this season. The Packers offense has moved the chains at an 81.55% rate at home this season and an 80.00% rate on the road. The difference is their defense has allowed opponents to move the chains at an 81.91% rate on the road this season, as opposed to 73.04% at home. The Bills don’t have a good offense, moving the chains at a 66.49% rate this season, but if the Packers defense plays like it has on the road this season, they shouldn’t have a ton of trouble moving the ball.

Meanwhile, the Bills, more than maybe any other team in the league, have the personnel to slow down the Packers’ offense. Their league best defense in terms of rate of moving the chains allowed at 68.00% allowed the Broncos’ explosive offense to move the chains at a 72.00% rate in Denver last week. If they can slow down the Packers offense and move the ball on a weak Green Bay defense, then I’m happy taking the Bills getting anything more than 4 points here in Buffalo, but I’d need at least 6 to be reasonably confident in the Bills.

The Packers are in a good spot with a trip to Tampa Bay on deck, where the early line has them as 10.5 point favorites. Teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites, 23-8 ATS before being 7+ road favorites, though oddly enough just 4-4 ATS before being 10+ road favorites (might just be a small sample size, that spot is 36-22 ATS since 2002). However, Buffalo has an easy game up next with a trip to Oakland on deck, where the early line has them as 4.5 point favorites. The Bills should be the right side, but again I’m not that confident.

Green Bay Packers 23 Buffalo Bills 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +5.5

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bills, Broncos, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (7-5) at Denver Broncos (9-3)

Usually the public is all over favorites, particularly big favorites, because they don’t quite understand the value of the points they’re giving up. The public takes the favorite about 80% of the time or so and it’s a big part of the reason why the public always loses money in the long run. However, there’s only a slight lean on the Broncos as 10 point favorites here. I think the public is actually slightly overrating the Bills here as underdogs. It makes sense that they’d do that as the Bills have a 7-5 record, but they are nowhere near as good as that record suggests.

The Bills rank 24th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 65.52% rate, as opposed to 67.73% for their opponents, a differential of -2.22%. The Broncos, meanwhile, rank 1st, moving the chains at a 78.07% rate, as opposed to 70.82% for their opponents, a differential of 7.25%. I don’t think this line is high enough and I don’t have any problem taking the Broncos even with the public on them because it’s not a heavy lean. The Broncos have been especially good at home since Peyton Manning showed up in 2012, going 16-9 ATS as home favorites, including 6-3 ATS as home favorites of 10 or more.

The Bills are also in a tough spot as they host Green Bay next week. Teams are 59-92 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more and 30-64 ATS before being home underdogs of 4 or more. Meanwhile, the Broncos head to San Diego, where they will be road favorites. Teams are 100-63 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2002. On top of that, teams are 89-60 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, which the Broncos could easily be next week. I like the Broncos to blow out the Bills here.

Denver Broncos 31 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -10

Confidence: High

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Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bills, Browns, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (7-4) at Buffalo Bills (6-5)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Browns are in their 2nd of two road games, which tends to be a good spot for teams. Teams are 46-26 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a win as road underdogs. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 187-191 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.36 points per game, as opposed to 262-380 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.34 points per game.

On the other hand, the Bills are coming off of a Monday Night Football blowout win. Teams are 33-15 ATS since 2002 off of a win on Monday Night Football by 21 or more. Teams tend to carry that momentum into the next week. However, it’s unclear if that will still happen because the Bills played a weird Monday Night game last week, beating the Jets 38-3 in Detroit in a game that started at 7 PM ET and that wasn’t nationally televised, as a result of a snowstorm forcing to location and the time of the game to be changed. That adds uncertainty to the situation this week.

Both of these two teams have tough games next week, as the Bills head to Denver and the Browns host the Colts. Non-divisional home favorites are 73-99 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional road underdogs. Even worse, the Bills could be double digit underdogs in Denver next week. Teams are 42-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs as a tough game like that upcoming presents a massive distraction. The early line is 9.5 so that trend might not be in play, but it’s still worth mentioning and the logic could still hold either way.

On the Browns’ side, non-divisional road underdogs are 92-126 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 57-89 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012. The early line is right at 3 and may end up being less than 3, so that trend isn’t definitely in play, but again it’s worth mentioning and the logic still holds. The Browns are the better of these two teams, moving the chains at a 71.19% rate, as opposed to 70.73% for their opponents, a differential of 0.46% that ranks 17th in the NFL. The Bills, meanwhile, rank just 22nd, moving the chains at a 66.25% rate, as opposed to 68.22% for their opponents, a differential of -1.97%. However, this line is under 3 so we’re not really getting any real line value with the Browns. I’m going to take the Bills and hope the home team wins by a field goal and continues their momentum from last week, but I’m not confident at all.

Buffalo Bills 16 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -2.5

Confidence: None

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New York Jets at Buffalo Bills in Detroit: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bills, Jets, Uncategorized

New York Jets (2-8) at Buffalo Bills (5-5) in Detroit

In case you haven’t heard, this game is getting moved from Buffalo to Detroit as a result of the massive snowstorm that hit Buffalo this weekend. This line moved from 4.5 to 3 as a result, but I don’t think that’s nearly a big enough line movement. The typical line movement for homefield advantage is 3 and I think this is much more of a neutral site game than that line movement suggests. On top of that, the Bills are at a tremendous disadvantage because they’ve been unable to practice all week. There’s no way they’ll be able to be as focused as the Jets, who got a normal week of practice in this week and didn’t have to deal with a ton of snow effecting their day-to-day lives.

Some might think that because the Bills won by 20 earlier this game in New York against the Jets that the Bills should still be able to win easily here, but that game was very fluky. Easily the biggest reason for the loss was the Jets -6 turnover margin, but turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that have a turnover margin of -4 on average have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week. Even crazier, teams with a turnover margin of -6 or more have an average turnover margin of +0.3 the following week. The Jets actually won the chain game, moving the chains at a 67.57% rate, as opposed to 65.38% for the Bills. The Bills were way too reliant on turnovers, which they won’t be able to rely on this week.

The Jets have played better over the past 2 weeks since that game, as a result of the switch from Geno Smith to Michael Vick at quarterback. Vick isn’t great, but he’s an upgrade on the horrific Geno Smith. The Jets are actually better on the season in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 69.10% rate, as opposed to 72.79% for their opponents, a differential of -3.69% that ranks 24th in the NFL. The Bills, meanwhile, move the chains at a 64.71% rate, as opposed to 69.04% for their opponents, a differential of -4.33% that ranks 26th in the NFL. I’m not that confident in the Jets and I don’t want to put any money on this game given all the externalities effecting it that are so hard to quantify, but I feel like you have to take the points here.

New York Jets 13 Buffalo Bills 12 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Miami Dolphins (5-4)

The Bills might be the team with the biggest disparity in terms of their record versus how well they’ve actually played. They may be 5-4, but they’re nowhere near as good as their record. They move the chains at a 65.17% rate, as opposed to 67.93% for their opponents, a differential of -2.76% that ranks 22nd in the NFL. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are also 5-4, but they’re significantly better. They move the chains at a 73.99% rate, as opposed to 69.23% for their opponents, a differential of 4.76% that ranks 5th in the NFL. That suggests that the Dolphins should be favored by more than the 5.5 points they are favored by here.

However, the Dolphins are in a terrible spot, as they head to Denver next week, while the Bills host the lowly Jets. Teams are 59-42 ATS since 2002 as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, while divisional home favorites are 98-114 ATS before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2002. Combining the two, teams are 62-99 ATS since 2010 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. I’m going to go with the trends and take the Bills, fading the public in the process, but I’m not confident at all.

Miami Dolphins 17 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +5.5

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bills, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) at Buffalo Bills (5-3)

Both of these two teams are 5-3, but one I think is very underrated and the other is very overrated. The Chiefs are significantly better than their solid record and are quietly one of the best teams in the NFL. The Chiefs rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 78.40% rate, as opposed to 71.18% for their opponents, a differential of 7.22%. That might sound absurd considering they’re just 5-3, but they have a +62 point differential. They went into San Diego and won. They blew out a solid Miami team in Miami (34-15). They blew out a Patriots team that has looked fantastic since (41-14). They took care of business against the Jets (24-10) and the Rams (31-7). Meanwhile, their three losses came by a combined 19 points and two of them came in Denver and San Francisco.

The Bills, meanwhile, are 3-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, with those 3 wins coming by a combined 7 points. In one of their two wins by more than a touchdown, a 43-23 win over a terrible Jets team, they had a +6 turnover margin, which is not sustainable at all, as turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that have a turnover margin of -4 on average have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week. At the same time, teams that have a turnover margin of +4 on average have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week.

The Jets actually won the chain game in that game, moving the chains at a 67.57% rate, as opposed to 65.38% for the Bills. The Bills were way too reliant on turnovers. On the season, the Bills rank just 24th in the NFL rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 65.24% rate, as opposed to 68.32% for their opponents, a differential of -3.08%. This line at just 1.5 in favor of Kansas City seems way too small. However, the Chiefs are in a bad spot with a game against the Seahawks on deck, a big distraction. Teams are 22-40 ATS since 1989 as non-divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home underdogs. They should still be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

Update: The Chiefs are now underdogs, which nullifies that aforementioned trend I was worried about. The Chiefs still aren’t in an ideal spot, but neither are the Bills who have to go to Miami next week. The Chiefs are a significantly better team than the Bills so I’m moving this up to a medium confidence pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 19 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +1.5

Confidence: Medium

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