Colts

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots: 2014 AFC Championship Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Conference Championship Picks, 2014 NFL Picks, Colts, Patriots, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (13-5) at New England Patriots (13-4)

After the Ravens beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, ensuring that they would go to New England in the 2nd round for yet another Patriots/Ravens playoff matchup, I started discussing on Twitter who the Patriots would choose to play in the 2nd round if they had the choice, the lower seed Ravens or the higher seed Colts. It was pretty unanimous support for the Colts and I agreed. Even ignoring that the Colts have lost by final scores of 59-24, 43-22, and 42-20 to the Patriots in the Chuck Pagano/Andrew Luck era and that the Patriots have never covered against the Ravens in the playoffs in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era (both of those are too small of sample sizes), I thought the Ravens were a significantly better team and matched up with the Patriots better.

Coming into the playoffs, I thought the Ravens were the best playoff team that played on wild card weekend and they didn’t do anything to disprove that theory by beating the Steelers convincingly in Pittsburgh. Le’Veon Bell or no Le’Veon Bell, that’s still impressive. The Ravens went 10-6 despite a 2-4 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, so they were a rare 10+ win team that was actually better than their record. They finished 5th in DVOA, and their +107 point differential was 6th among playoff teams. In terms of rate of moving the chains, they moved them at a 75.93% rate, as opposed to 70.31% for their opponents, a differential of 5.62% that ranked 3rd in the NFL this season, behind only Denver and Seattle and actually ahead of New England.

Baltimore had a weak schedule, but even when you take schedule into account, the Ravens only fall to 4th in differential at 4.94%, trading spots with New England, who is at 5.40%. The Ravens also came into the playoffs as the 4th hottest team, ranking 4th in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential among playoff teams over the final 4 games of the season at 10.56%, only behind Seattle, Carolina, and Dallas. That’s a little skewed because the Ravens faced back-to-back 3rd string quarterbacks against Houston and Cleveland and even schedule adjusted differential doesn’t take injuries into account, but it’s still very impressive, especially since they did it without Haloti Ngata.

The Colts came into the playoffs as the 2nd worst team in the 2nd half of the season in rate of moving the chains differential when adjusted for schedule at -0.21, only ahead of Detroit at -1.18%. The Colts went 6-2 in their final 8 games, but their 6 wins came against the likes of Jacksonville, Washington, Tennessee, Houston, Cleveland and the New York Giants and they didn’t beat them by enough to offset the fact that they were crushed by the only two playoff teams they faced over that time period, Dallas and New England. They also don’t have nearly the pass rush that Baltimore has, which has always been the key to beating New England, because Brady has always struggled mightily when pressured.

The Ravens definitely seemed like they’d be a tougher matchup for the Patriots than the Colts. I’ve always thought giving the top overall seed the choice of which team they want to host in the divisional round would be interesting. It would give an added incentive for getting the top seed and it would make for some very interesting situations. Would the top seed always select the lower seed to avoid pissing off their future opponent and giving them added incentive? Would the lower seed still be pissed off and motivated extra by being chosen by the #1 seed? Would this system make a difference long-term in terms of the results of divisional round matchups involving the #1 overall seed? These are all things that would be interesting to know and, either way, I thought last week that the Colts would be an easier matchup for the Patriots than the Ravens.

The Ravens gave the Patriots a tough game, losing 35-31 in a game that literally could have gone either way. The Patriots moved the chains at an 85.00% rate, as opposed to 82.05% for the Ravens. However, the Colts definitely exceeded my expectations, winning 24-13 in Denver in a game in which they moved the chains at a 76.47% rate, as opposed to 66.67% for the Broncos. Considering the way the Colts played in the 2nd half of the season, and the way they’ve generally played on the road and against tough opponents over the past 3 seasons with Luck and Pagano, and considering the Broncos finished the regular season #1 in rate of moving the chains differential and schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential, that was really surprising. The Broncos kind of limped into the playoffs, ranking 9th out of 12 playoff teams in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential over the final 4 games of the season, but I thought Julius Thomas and Brandon Marshall coming back healthy would really help and Peyton Manning never looked as bad as he did against the Colts, not even in the road loss in Cincinnati and definitely never at home.

I’m 5-3 against the spread in the playoffs, but I’ve missed both of the Colts games. I wasn’t concerned that I was underrating the Colts when they beat the Bengals in Indianapolis because I wasn’t confident in Cincinnati, because that was in Indianapolis, and because the Bengals aren’t a very good team without AJ Green. However, last week’s win in Denver was different. It was on the road and against a very good team. I still think they’re the weakest of the 4 remaining playoff teams, but they could give the Patriots more trouble than I thought they would before last week.

I’m still taking the Patriots here. The Colts are still just 3-9 ATS on the road since 2002 against teams with winning records. Of their 8 straight up losses against winning teams on the road over that time period, all 14 of them have come by two touchdowns or more. This season, they are 1-3 against playoff teams on the road, losing those 3 games by margins of 7, 17, and 35. The Patriots meanwhile, have been arguably the best offensive team in the league this season, as long as Gronk is on the field. With the exception of the first 4 weeks of the season, the Patriots moved the chains at an 80.87% rate with Gronk on the field this regular season. They’re a pretty average team defensively, allowing opponent to move the chains at a 71.66% rate, but when their offense is on, they’re a very dangerous team.

On top of that, they are incredible at home, winning 17 straight home games that actually matter over the past 2 seasons, going 11-6 ATS in those 17 games. This regular season, excluding week 17, they move the chains at a 80.00% rate at home, as opposed to 71.37% for their opponents (a differential of 8.63%), while they move the chains at a 75.10% rate on the road, as opposed to 71.90% for their opponents (a differential of 3.20%). Last week was tough for them, but I think this will be an easier game for them and they should cover. I’m not that confident because I still might be underrating the Colts, but the Patriots should be the right side. If you’re concerned that I haven’t made any picks that are medium or higher and need something to wager money on this week, I’d recommend a New England -1, Seattle -1.5 6 point teaser.

New England Patriots 34 Indianapolis Colts 24

Pick against the spread: New England -7

Confidence: Low

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Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: 2014 Divisional Round NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 Divisional Round NFL Picks, 2014 NFL Picks, Broncos, Colts, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at Denver Broncos (12-4)

Last week was an overall successful weekend. I hit 3 out of 4 plays, including both of my big plays (Baltimore +3 and Carolina -6). The one I missed was the Indianapolis/Cincinnati game, as I made a low confidence pick on Cincinnati. I understood the AJ Green absence would be huge and that Indianapolis was a good home team and overall the better team on the season, but Cincinnati was the better of the two teams in the 2nd half of the season by a significant margin as their defense got it together as the season went on.

The Colts came into the playoffs as the 2nd worst team in the 2nd half of the season in rate of moving the chains differential when adjusted for schedule at -0.21, only ahead of Detroit at -1.18%. The Colts went 6-2 in their final 8 games, but their 6 wins came against the likes of Jacksonville, Washington, Tennessee, Houston, Cleveland and the New York Giants and they didn’t beat them by enough to offset the fact that they were crushed by the only two playoff teams they faced over that time period, Dallas and New England. Their offense was the unit that declined the most significantly and it’s easy to understand why given that Andrew Luck’s play slipped and players got hurt, most importantly Ahmad Bradshaw, who was playing fantastic football before going down.

The Colts beat the Bengals last week, but I still am not convinced they’re quite able to match up with top level competition. The Bengals were a solid team this season, but ranked 12th, 8th, and 6th in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential among playoff teams on the season, in their final 8 games, and in their final 4 games respectively, and they were missing AJ Green. Besides, that game was at home, where they’ve been significantly better this season than on the road.

At home, they’ve moved the chains at a 75.89% rate this season, as opposed to 66.39% for their opponents (a differential of 9.50%), and on the road, they’ve moved the chains at a 74.02% rate, as opposed to 73.93% for their opponents (a differential of 0.09%). This is nothing new, as the Colts are 21-5 straight up at home in the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era, outscoring opponents by an average of 6.23 points per game, while they are 14-12 straight up on the road over that same time period (since 2012), getting outscored by an average of 2.58 points per game, a swing of almost 9 points.

They’re just 2-9 ATS on the road over that time period against teams with winning records. Of their 8 straight up losses against winning teams on the road over that time period, all 14 of them have come by two touchdowns or more. This season, they were 0-3 against playoff teams on the road, losing those 3 games by margins of 7, 17, and 35. Their closest game was a 24-17 loss in Denver week 1. They did cover the spread (it doesn’t factor in to that 2-9 ATS record because Denver was 0-0 at the time), but only by half a point, as the line was 7.5 points. However, they moved the chains at a 75.00% rate in that game, as opposed to 82.35% for Denver (a differential of -7.35%), so it wasn’t quite as close as the final score suggested (Denver led 24-0 at one point) and their history against good teams on the road suggests this game won’t be quite as close.

The reason this isn’t a bigger play is because Denver kind of limps into the playoffs. They finished the regular season #1 in both rate of moving the chains differential and rate of moving the chains differential adjusted for schedule at 6.77% and 6.92% respectively, but just 9th among playoff teams in schedule adjusted in their final 4 games at 3.00%, as their offense slipped to end the season and Peyton Manning didn’t look quite as good. Still, I think they have a good chance to hand the Colts another big disappointing road loss to a tough opponent (having Julius Thomas and Brandon Marshall back and healthy after the bye could be key), and, as long as this line is a touchdown or lower, I’m going to make a significant play on them.

Denver Broncos 34 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Denver -7

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Wild Card Round NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 NFL Wild Card Picks, Bengals, Colts, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

In addition to adjusting playoff teams’ rate of moving the chains differentials for strength of schedule, another thing I did differently this week was breaking out schedule adjusted differential into a team’s last 4 games and into a team’s last 8 weeks instead of just the whole season. The motivation for this is because I started the season 100-60 against the spread in the first 11 weeks of the season, but just 43-49 in the final 6 weeks. A similar thing happened in 2012 and 2013 as well and I think part of it is because I put too much stock into old data late in the season. Breaking out the data into the last 4 games and the last 8 games allows me to find out which teams are “hot” at the moment, something that might be masked by the season long data.

Two things this data revealed for me this week are relevant to this game. Before I did this, I was ready to make a big play on Indianapolis. The Colts rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, moving the chains at a 74.96% rate, as opposed to 70.28% for their opponents, a differential of 4.67%. The Bengals, meanwhile, rank all the way down at 16th, 2nd worst among playoff teams, moving the chains at a 71.84% rate, as opposed to 71.90% for their opponents, a differential of -0.06%. On top of that, the Bengals are without AJ Green this week.

However, the data from the past 4 games and the past 8 games revealed that the Bengals have gotten a lot better as the season has gone on. On the season, the Bengals rank last among playoff teams in schedule adjusted differential at 0.48%, but over the past 8 games they rank 8th at 3.12% and over the past 4 games they rank 6th at 6.77%. You might think that AJ Green’s return from an earlier injury, which essentially cost him 4 games this season, is the reason behind that. However, their offense has remained below average in all 3 timeframes, season long, last 8 games, and last 4 games.

The unit that has gotten so much better over the course of the season is their defense, in Paul Guenther’s first season as defensive coordinator. They really missed Mike Zimmer to start the season, as their ex-defensive coordinator is now the head coach in Minnesota, but they’ve missed him less and less as the season has gone on, as Guenther’s defense has come into its own. Besides, in the 4 games they’ve been without Green this season, they haven’t been significantly worse offensively, moving the chains at a 69.83% rate in those games, as opposed to 72.46% in their other 12 games. They will struggle to move the chains without him, but their defense should play well once again.

One of the games that Green missed was the Bengals’ earlier trip to Indianapolis, a 27-0 blowout loss by the Bengals that was even worse than the final score suggested. The Bengals went three and out in their first 8 drives and ended up moving the chains at a mere 40.00% rate, as opposed to 75.00% for the Colts, a differential of -35.00%. It was easily the Bengals’ worst performance of the season. The good news for the Bengals is teams are 13-25 ATS in the playoffs in same site, non-divisional revenge games since 2002.

On top of that, teams are 7-2 ATS in the playoffs as underdogs over that same time period against non-divisional opponents that previously beat them by 21 or more in the regular season. It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. The Bengals were also in a terrible spot in the first matchup, exhausted off of a tie with the Panthers the previous week. Teams are 5-11 ATS off of a tie since 1989, including 0-7 ATS on a bye. This week, they’re on normal rest.

Meanwhile, the Colts have gotten noticeably worse as the season has gone on, the other revelation that surfaced as a result of breaking up season long data into the past 4 weeks and the past 8 weeks. While the Colts rank 6th in schedule adjusted differential among playoff teams at 3.87% on the season, they rank 10th over the past 4 weeks at 1.55% and 11th over the past 8 weeks at -0.21%. The unit that has been largely responsible for this decline has been the offense, which has struggled with a season ending injury to Ahmad Bradshaw, a severely limiting injury to Reggie Wayne, and minor injuries to TY Hilton and Dwayne Allen. Hilton and Allen should be good for this game, but now Gosder Cherilus is hurt.

Luck’s numbers have gone down significantly over the 2nd half of the season, completing 57.6% of his passes for an average of 7.55 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions over the past 8 games as opposed to 64.8% completion, 7.87 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions over the first 8 games of the season. This is not the same Colts team that destroyed the Bengals earlier this year during week 7, nor is it the same Bengals team. The Bengals are in a good revenge spot and the sharps are on them, as the line has moved from 4 or 4.5 early in the week down to 3.5 now, despite the public being on Indianapolis. I love fading the public and going with the sharps whenever it makes sense and it does here. I’m not that confident though with Green expected to be ruled out.

Indianapolis Colts 20 Cincinnati Bengals 19

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Colts, Titans, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (10-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-13)

The Colts were embarrassed last week in a 42-7 loss in Dallas. I had Colts +3 as my Pick of the Week and I messed up big time. I failed to take into account the Colts’ relative road struggles, their struggles with quality opponents in recent years, including this year, and the impact that the absence of TY Hilton would have. I was desperate for a Pick of the Week in a tough week for games and I didn’t want to go with a team like Washington, Chicago, or Houston, the types of teams that had burned me in the past few weeks, even though everything I had told me they were the right side and I was still up big on the season (all 3 covered and Washington and Houston won straight up as big home underdogs).

I apologize for straying from what’s gotten me this far and not trusting what I do. Looking back, I should have made another team Pick of the Week and made Indianapolis a lower confidence pick (Dallas was still 7-23 ATS as home favorites since 2010 going into that one). However, I really like the Colts chances of bouncing back in a big way this week for a number of reasons. There a lot of differences between this week’s game and last week’s game and I feel really good about this one. This is Indianapolis as Pick of the Week take 2.

For one, TY Hilton is expected back after missing last week with a hamstring problem. Teams generally bounce back off of a blowout loss like the one the Colts suffered last week anyway, going 49-25 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by 35 or more. It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. The Colts might not necessarily be overlooked by the 2-13 Titans, but they should be embarrassed after what happened last week (and they’re 13-1 ATS off of a loss since Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck arrived in 2012 anyway) and I also think they’re undervalued, as just 6.5 point favorites here.

Despite what happened last week, the Colts still rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 75.33% rate, as opposed to 71.43% for their opponents, a differential of 3.90%. Tennessee, meanwhile, has been horrible this year, moving the chains at a 66.50% rate, as opposed to 75.39% for their opponents, a differential of -8.89% that ranks 31st in the NFL. This line is too low. Speaking of Tennessee being horrible, the Colts have always beaten up on bad teams in the Luck/Pagano era, going 17-4 ATS against teams with .500 or worse records since 2012, as long as it’s week 4 or later (.500 or worse teams in the first few weeks of the season aren’t always necessarily bad). The Colts have had a lot of trouble with good teams like the Cowboys over the past 3 years, but they shouldn’t have much trouble blowing out the Titans.

On top of that, the Colts are in their 2nd straight road game this week, as opposed to last week when they were in their first. This puts them in a good spot. Teams are 82-63 ATS as road favorites off of a road loss as underdogs since 2002. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 196-200 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.29 points per game, as opposed to 276-392 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.19 points per game.

The only thing the Titans really have going for them is their long losing streak, as they’ve lost 9 straight. Teams are 32-20 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of a losing streak of 9 or more games. Again, this is a counterintuitive one, but it makes sense for the same reasons why teams covering off of blowout losses makes sense, teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in this spot. However, we’ve already established they aren’t undervalued and, while they may be embarrassed, I don’t see the Colts overlooking the Titans after what happened last week. I’m still confident enough in the Colts to make them by Pick of the Week as long as this line is less than a touchdown.

Indianapolis Colts 34 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Colts, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (10-4) at Dallas Cowboys (9-5)

The Cowboys got an impressive victory in Philadelphia last week and that moved this line from even to 3 over the past week. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense. This is a significant movement, going as it’s now at a key number, and fading it does make sense. That line movement is a massive overreaction to what happened last week. Sure, the Cowboys won in Philadelphia, but that doesn’t erase the fact that they got blown out at home by those same Eagles in Dallas on Thanksgiving. They aren’t as bad as they looked on Thanksgiving, but they aren’t as good as they looked last week. It’s important to remember that.

On the season, the Cowboys rank 10th, moving the chains at a 76.58% rate, as opposed to 74.64% for their opponents, a differential of 1.93%. The Colts, meanwhile, rank 3rd, moving the chains at a 75.79% rate, as opposed to 70.07% for their opponents, a differential of 5.72%. This line suggests these two teams are even, which isn’t true at all. We’re getting significant line value with the Cowboys before you even get into the fact that they are 7-23 ATS as home favorites since 2010, a big part of the reason why they lost to Philadelphia here 3 weeks ago. A similar thing could happen this week only the Colts are a better opponent than the Eagles.

The Cowboys are in a good spot with only a trip to Washington left on the schedule. They’ll almost certainly be significant road favorites in Washington next week. Teams are 93-67 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, including 60-40 ATS before being 4+ road favorites, and 25-10 ATS before being 7+ road favorites. However, the Colts are in an equally good spot with a trip to Tennessee on deck. On top of that, the Cowboys are also 14-27 ATS in week 13 or later as long as Tony Romo is the starter, including 6-14 ATS at home and 5-13 ATS as home favorites. In a tough week for picks, the Colts are my Pick of the Week.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Dallas Cowboys 20 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Colts, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (9-4)

The Colts have been very good at home in the Andrew Luck era, going 16-7 ATS at home since 2002. We’re also getting a little bit of line value with the Colts, as they rank 3rd, moving the chains at a 76.26% rate, as opposed to 71.26% for their opponents, a differential of 5.00%. Meanwhile, the Texans rank 20th, moving the chains at a 71.93% rate, as opposed to 72.60% for their opponents, a differential of -0.67%.

However, the Texans might be the better spot. Teams are 99-114 ATS since 2002 as divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, while teams are 108-77 ATS since 2002 as divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Combining the two, teams are 62-38 ATS since 2012 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. However, the Colts are only projected to be 1 point underdogs in Dallas next week and the Texans are only projected to be 1 point favorites over Baltimore, so that trend might not necessarily be in play. I’m going with the Colts, but I’m not confident.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -6.5

Confidence: None

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Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Browns, Colts, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Cleveland Browns (7-5)

The Browns are in a bad spot here with the Bengals coming to town net week. Teams are 15-30 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional home underdogs. However, they should still be the right side. This line is too high at 3.5. That means the Colts would be 9.5 point favorites in Indianapolis. Last week, they were favored by 10 over Washington, who is not as good as Cleveland. The public is still all over the Colts though because they don’t put enough value in homefield advantage and don’t understand how the Colts wouldn’t win by 4 or more here. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because they always lose money in the long run and it makes sense here.

On the season, the Browns rank 15th, moving the chains at a 70.48% rate, as opposed to 69.77% for their opponents, a differential of 0.71%, while the Colts rank 3rd, moving the chains at a 77.29% rate, as opposed to 72.54% for their opponents, a differential of 4.75%. The Colts don’t deserve to be 3.5 point favorites here, especially when you take into account that Vontae Davis will be out for the Colts. Davis is easily the Colts’ top defensive player on an otherwise pedestrian defense. The Browns should keep this close, but I’m not that confident.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Cleveland Browns 24

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3.5

Confidence: None

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Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Colts, Commanders, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (3-8) at Indianapolis Colts (7-4)

The Redskins stand at 3-8, but they aren’t as bad as their record. Their -56 point differential isn’t as bad as their record. They have just 2 losses by more than 11 points. They’ve also been killed by the turnover battle (-9) and the return touchdown battle (-4), two things that tend to even out in the long run. On the season, they move the chains at a 71.47% rate, as opposed to 71.43% for their opponents, a differential of 0.04% that ranks 18th in the NFL. The Colts, meanwhile, move the chains at a 77.04% rate, as opposed to 72.70% for their opponents, a differential of 4.34% that ranks 6th. This line is way too high at 10 points.

The Redskins have been better on the road than at home, as they don’t have a single road loss by more than 11 and the only two road games they’ve lost by more than 4 points involved the other team returning a touchdown. They only lost by 4 points last week in San Francisco as 10 point underdogs and they could easily keep it close here in Indianapolis. The Redskins have benched Robert Griffin for Colt McCoy this week. McCoy isn’t as talented as Griffin, but he’s a better fit for this offense and he’s played well in limited action this season, completing 85.7% of his passes for an average of 10.17 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception on 42 attempts. I’m still confident in the Redskins even with McCoy under center.

Unlike last week, the Redskins are in their 2nd straight road game this week, which is an added benefit. Teams are 110-74 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 93-52 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 187-191 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.36 points per game, as opposed to 262-380 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.34 points per game.

The only reason this isn’t a higher confidence pick is twofold. For one, the Colts go to Cleveland next week. While Cleveland has a solid record, the Colts will still be road favorites there next week and teams are 113-75 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites since 2002. Two, the Colts have a very solid homefield advantage. They are 15-7 ATS at home since 2012, when Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck came in. However, I still like the Redskins’ chances of playing another close road game.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: Washington +10

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Colts, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4)

The Jaguars aren’t the worst team in the NFL, as the Raiders are winless at 0-10 and have looked really, really bad in the process, but they’ve still been horrible over the past two seasons. They have covered just 9 of their last 27 games, dating back to week 17 of 2012. Over those 27 games, they lost 17 of them by double digits and could easily make it 18 this week on the road against a very good Indianapolis team. On the season, the Jaguars are moving the chains at a 66.67% rate, as opposed to 72.87% for their opponents, a differential of -6.20% that ranks 30th in the NFL.

The Colts, meanwhile, rank 12th, moving the chains at a 77.30% rate, as opposed to 74.23% for their opponents, a differential of 3.06%. They’ve been even better at home, moving the chains at a 76.63% rate, as opposed to 70.13% for their opponents, a differential of 6.50%. This is nothing new as they are 14-7 ATS at home since 2012, when Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck came in. They lost last week at home against the Patriots, but that was obviously a much tougher opponent and they typically bounce back very well off of a loss in the Pagano/Luck era, as most good head coach/quarterback combinations do, going 12-1 ATS off of a loss since 2012.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, are in a bad spot with a home game against the Giants up next. Teams are 57-87 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more (the early line is NY Giants -3.5). That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, it’s definitely the latter. I like the Colts a good amount, even as two touchdown favorites.

Indianapolis Colts 38 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -14

Confidence: High

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New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Colts, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (7-2) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3)

The Patriots are usually an auto-bet as a small favorite or an underdog, as Tom Brady is 45-18 ATS in his career as an underdog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points. However, the usual conditions that accompany the Patriots being in this situation are not in play. They aren’t coming off a loss. They’re not playing a team with a better record than them. They’re also on the road, where they haven’t been that good recently, going 4-9 ATS on the road since the start of last season. Even in situations where they are underdogs or small favorites on the road, they are 3-4 ATS on the road in that time period.

On the flip side, the Colts have been great at home recently, going 14-6 ATS at home since Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano came in before the 2012 season. The Patriots are in a good spot as they will be home favorites next week, but the Colts are also in a good spot with a much easier game against the Jaguars on deck. Teams are 109-74 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs since 2008 before being non-divisional home favorites, while teams are teams are 98-79 ATS since 2008 before being double digit home favorites.

The Colts are the better team in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.84% rate, as opposed to 71.48% for their opponents, a differential of 6.36% that ranks 3rd in the NFL, while the Patriots rank 13th, moving the chains at a 75.25% rate, as opposed to 73.33% for their opponents, a differential of 1.92%. However, the Patriots have been significantly better moving the chains over the past 5 games since Rob Gronkowski has returned to form, moving the chains at an 80.43% rate, as opposed to 66.96% in their first 4 games. Their defense has been as good without Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo (72.00% vs 74.29%), but they’ve still been a much better football team of late and are at least comparable to the Colts, if not better. We’re not really getting any line value with the Colts as 3 point favorites. I’m taking the Patriots on principle as underdogs, but I’m not that confident as there’s a lot going on here.

Indianapolis Colts 24 New England Patriots 23

Pick against spread: New England +3

Confidence: Low

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